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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Pressure Gain, Stability, and Operability of Methane/Syngas Based RDEs Under Steady and Transient Conditions (Final Project Report)

The scope of this work addresses key issues associated with losses associated with the detonation wave and other processes internal to the RDE operation, as well as it develops modeling tools for the evaluation of these losses and exhaust emissions in RDEs. The main challenge in studying RDEs is that RDE performance is highly reliant on the specifics of the design so much so that simple/canonical systems alone cannot provide useful engineering information, but practical RDE designs are sufficiently complex and involve extreme operational environments that detailed access either experimentally (laser diagnostics, for instance) or computationally (direct numerical simulations) are as yet to become practical. To overcome this challenge, we have conducted a combined experimental/simulation/analytical study investigating key phenomena that control the characteristics of operation of RDEs. As a result, the study has developed tools and methods that can be used to evaluate performance and design approaches using reduced-physics models, with the assumptions validated using detailed simulations, and the model prediction tested using experimental observations. The specific objectives of the research were: (1) Develop and demonstrate a low-loss fully axial injection concept, taking advantage of stratification effects to alter the detonation structure and position the wave favorably within the combustor; (2) Obtain stability and operability characteristics of an RDE across operating conditions to aid in the development of operability and performance rules for the operations of other systems; and (3) Develop quantitative metrics for performance gain as well as quantitative description of the loss mechanisms through a combination of diagnostics development, reduced-order modeling, and detailed simulations. The work conducted here has made contribution on design of low-loss inlets that has broad application within the power generation industry for use with pressure gain combustion. The operability and stability of different designs, while focusing on axial air inlet designs, has been analyzed. The effect of nozzle and injection conditions was studied. Models and simulations of exhaust emissions, focusing on NOx emission has been developed and used to investigate how operation of the RDE affect NOx production using Lagrangian analysis of RDE simulations. This work has built on previous programs, with the goal of further understanding operation of RDEs and elevate the readiness of design consideration. In addition, a suite of diagnostic and modeling tools have been developed to obtain quantitative metrics on performance based on measurements, which can be readily transferred to other experimental configurations.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quick-connect scanning tunneling microscope head with nested piezoelectric coarse walkers

To meet changing research demands, new scanning tunneling microscope (STM) features must constantly evolve. We describe the design, development, and performance of a modular plug-in STM, which is compact and stable. The STM head is equipped with a quick-connect socket that is matched to a universal connector plug, enabling it to be transferred between systems. This head can be introduced into a vacuum system via a load-lock and transferred to various sites equipped with the connector plug, permitting multi-site STM operation. Its design allows for reliable operation in a variety of experimental conditions, including a broad temperature range, ultra-high vacuum, high magnetic fields, and closed-cycle pulse-tube cooling. The STM’s compact size is achieved by a novel nested piezoelectric coarse walker design, which allows for large orthogonal travel in the X, Y, and Z directions, ideal for studying both bulk and thin film samples ranging in size from mm to μm. Its stability and noise tolerance are demonstrated by achieving atomic resolution under ambient conditions on a laboratory desktop with no vibrational or acoustic isolation. The operation of the nested coarse walkers is demonstrated by successful navigation to a μm-sized 2D sample.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fluid modeling of low-temperature plasmas

Fluid models are essential for understanding and predicting low-temperature plasma (LTP) behavior in various scientific and industrial settings. This paper provides an introductory tutorial on fluid modeling of LTPs, covering model formulation, implementation, and computational simulations. The tutorial focuses on five main components of the formulation of LTP fluid models: fluid flow, energy, chemistry, electromagnetism, and material properties, as well as in essential aspects of model implementations, including multiscale phenomena, multiphysics coupling, and numerical convergence. Designed for students and early-career researchers, this work offers a practical foundation for developing and using fluid models, from in-house computational codes to commercial software, bridging fundamental theory with real-world applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecovoltaic solar energy development can promote grassland bird communities

Ecologically informed photovoltaic (PV) developments that co-prioritize PV electricity generation with ecosystem function (‘ecovoltaics’) have emerged as a promising land sharing strategy to minimize ecological conflicts associated with PV solar energy development. While habitat-focused ecovoltaic designs can conceptually benefit biodiversity by offsetting or enhancing impacts of PV development, foundational field research is needed to examine how wildlife respond to these novel ecosystems. We conducted passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) in 2023 and 2024 at 13 solar facilities and paired control sites to investigate avian community responses to ecovoltaic facilities in the Midwestern United States. Compared to control sites (row crop agricultural fields), we found that ecovoltaic sites supported more grassland bird species throughout a 17-week monitoring period between May and September. Grassland bird communities on ecovoltaic sites were also more stable than on agricultural controls, as measured by the Jaccard dissimilarity index. We also used PAM-based weekly species occurrences in an occupancy-modelling framework to investigate the influence of PV development and other landscape variables on grassland bird occupancy. 10 out of 13 modelled grassland bird species had greater predicted occupancy probabilities (ψ) on PV sites than control sites. Synthesis and applications. Our findings suggest that properly sited and developed ecovoltaic solar facilities in human altered landscapes can improve habitat for birds and other wildlife, but further research is needed to understand which species may benefit most from these novel ecosystems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cyber Halo Innovation Research Program (CHIRP) Handbook: CHIRP Program Document 2026

The Cyber Halo Innovation Research Program (CHIRP) handbook outlines a comprehensive framework designed to advance space cybersecurity education, workforce development, recruitment efforts for United States Space Force (USSF) Space Systems Command (SSC) and the Department of the Airforce, and foster students’ professional growth. It provides an overview of CHIRP's objectives and strategic focus, establishing the foundation for participant engagement through a network of collaborations with academic institutions, contracted industry partners, training and certification organizations, federal agencies, and community organizations. It states a clear participation strategy for SSC and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for program execution and successful support for student transition to a career in space cybersecurity.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

High Fidelity Simulations of Air-Cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System

Nuclear energy is increasingly acknowledged as pivotal in the global shift towards cleaner energy solutions. Advanced nuclear technologies, including High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs), stand out as appealing options among Generation IV reactors due to their high temperature heat output and potential for cogeneration. HTGR designs incorporate passive safety systems, such as the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS), which utilize natural principles to manage heat dissipation from the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during accidents or routine shutdowns. Regulatory bodies require thorough validation of safety systems like the RCCS to ensure they meet specified standards. Consequently, there is a pressing need within the industry for advanced simulation tools capable of assessing these systems’ performance accurately. There is a knowladge gap in the literature concerning high-fidelity data for the RCCS, which motivates the focus of this study. This research focuses on a specific RCCS designed for the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor developed by General Atomics (GA- MHTGR). Experimental studies on a scaled version of the air-cooled RCCS of GA-MHTGR were conducted by the University of Wisconsin-Madison. This work contributes to a broader initiative aimed at establishing a numerical benchmark based on the UW-Madison experiments. As first step we performed high fidelity simulations of the experimental facility setup, to analyze flow physics in such systems and validate NekRS and the MOOSE heat transfer and radiation modules.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the potential of deep learning for protein–ligand docking

The effects of ligand binding on protein structures and their in vivo functions carry numerous implications for modern biomedical research and biotechnology development efforts such as drug discovery. Although several deep learning (DL) methods and benchmarks designed for protein–ligand docking have recently been introduced, so far no previous works have systematically studied the behaviour of the latest docking and structure prediction methods within the broadly applicable context of: (1) using predicted (apo) protein structures for docking (for example, for applicability to new proteins); (2) binding multiple (cofactor) ligands concurrently to a given target protein (for example, for enzyme design); and (3) having no previous knowledge of binding pockets (for example, for generalization to unknown pockets). To enable a deeper understanding of the real-world utility of docking methods, we introduce PoseBench, a comprehensive benchmark for broadly applicable protein–ligand docking. PoseBench enables researchers to rigorously and systematically evaluate DL methods for apo-to-holo protein–ligand docking and protein–ligand structure prediction using both primary ligand and multiligand benchmark datasets, the latter of which we introduce to the DL community. Empirically, using PoseBench, we find that: (1) DL cofolding methods generally outperform comparable conventional and DL docking baseline algorithms, but popular methods such as AlphaFold 3 are still challenged by prediction targets with new protein–ligand binding poses; (2) certain DL cofolding methods are highly sensitive to their input multiple sequence alignments, whereas others are not; and (3) DL methods struggle to strike a balance between structural accuracy and chemical specificity when predicting new or multiligand protein targets.

Morehead, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis of the Molten Salt Tritium Transport Experiment Test Section

Tritium, a radionuclide produced through neutron capture by lithium and other elements (beryllium and fluoride) in molten salts, presents unique challenges to radionuclide release. This is true for both fusion energy breeder blankets and molten salt fission reactors. The fundamental understanding of tritium transport is crucial to the safe design and operation of these reactors. The Molten Salt Tritium Transport Experiment (MSTTE), currently under construction at Idaho National Laboratory, aims to investigate tritium transport phenomena using a forced-convection fluoride salt loop. This loop is designed to study various transport mechanisms, such as permeation through metals and gas-liquid interactions, and is intended to support future research on tritium extraction units. A critical aspect of the MSTTE loop design is ensuring a fully developed velocity profile before the fluid reaches the permeation test section where measurements are made. This study employs computational fluid dynamics to model the salt flow behavior within the MSTTE permeation test section. A realizable k-ε turbulent model with enhanced wall treatment is used to simulate the single-phase, vertical upward flow of molten salt FLiNaK under isothermal conditions. The simulation results indicated flow distortion and underdeveloped profiles at all planned flow rates within the test section due to the 85-deg sharp bend. To address this issue, a reduced diameter with a reducer and expander and a flow conditioner are investigated to achieve fully developed flow. The analysis showed that the flow conditioner successfully corrected the flow profile, achieving fully developed behavior at a flow rate of 50 liters per minute (LPM). In conclusion, this research enhances our understanding of flow dynamics in molten salt systems and contributes to optimizing tritium transport control technologies.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Production of High Specific Activity 155 Tb, 161 Tb and 203 Pb for Research and Clinical Applications: Effective Target Design, Target Material Recycling and Radioisotope Separation (Final Technical Report)

The overall objectives of this project were (1) to develop methods for the production and separation of a diagnostic and therapeutic or “theranostic” pair of radioisotopes, terbium-155 ( 155 Tb) and terbium-161 ( 161 Tb) and (2) to train graduate students and postdoctoral fellows in technologies and methods used in radionuclide production. Radionuclides can be incorporated into drugs called radiopharmaceuticals that target a specific disease (e.g., cancer). The need for theranostic radionuclides is escalating with the clinical translation of radiopharmaceuticals due to their implementation in personalized medicine, which has demonstrated enhanced patient treatments. High purity and high specific activity radionuclides are critical for theranostic agent development, for example to maintain diagnostic image quality, to minimize radiation dose to the patient, and to increase uptake in the targeted tissue (e.g., tumor), especially in the case of receptor- and antigen-targeted agents. The 155 Tb (diagnostic) and 161 Tb (therapeutic) radioisotopes that were generated through this project are a theranostic pair with demonstrated potential for the development and translation into individualized, targeted, and dosimetry-driven radiotherapies. However, the development of such radiotherapies has been hindered by the lack of a routine and reliable supply of these isotopes in the United States. Methods for the production, separation, and supply of 155 Tb and 161 Tb were investigated and developed in this project. Further, the strong emphasis throughout the project on the training of graduate students and postdoctoral fellows has helped to ensure and enhance the nuclear science workforce through the training of the next generation of highly qualified scientists in nuclear and radiochemistry. This grant also continued a collaboration between scientists at the University of Washington (UW), the University of Missouri (MU) and Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). All three institutions were involved in the project, but to different degrees on the various tasks through which the overall objectives were met.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Scalable Coastal and Offshore Macroalgal Farming

The US DOE/ARPA-E MARINER program funded a four-year project to determine an optimal way to grow kelps in large, nearshore and offshore arrays for the eventual purpose of biofuel production with the goal of keeping the cost below $\$$80 USD per dry metric ton of kelp. This project specifically looked at how Saccharina latissima can be grown in the Gulf of Alaska to reach that goal. There were three major aspects of the research: 1) optimizing nursery production and seeding lines for outplanting, 2) designing an economical, modular outplanting structure and 3) developing methods to efficiently harvest the product. Farm designs were based on catenary structures and the use of spreader bars with variable spacing of grow lines and line types. The spacing of the grow lines makes a difference in the yield. Grow line spacing of ≥1.5m showed about a 50% increase in kg/m. There was no statistical difference in the growth of Saccharina latissima whether in the middle or the outside of the array, but the line type and perhaps line thickness can make a difference in yield. Sagging caused by the weight of the mature fronds resulted in lower growth at depth. Various harvesting approaches for mature kelps were tested by collaborating farmers. One promising innovation is the use of large bags for holding the freshly harvested fronds. Although the weight of the fronds on the growlines causes the lines to sink, the bags packed with the harvested fronds float, allowing for easy loading to the transfer vessel. Another advance in harvesting is a specially built harvest vessel, the Harvest Buddy, allowing a more mechanized and faster way to harvest. A significant aspect of this project was the TTO/T2M. Several different outreach activities were performed by the Alaska Fisheries Development Foundation and GreenWave. A techno-economic assessment (TEA) using our data has pointed to solutions to reach the $\$$80 goal. A second phase of this project involved the co-culture of two different species of kelps. Interest in farming kelps has grown beyond using kelp for food, feed or biofuels. There is considerable interest in generating biomass from seaweed for use in bioplastics and other products that would substitute for petroleum-derived products. For these uses to be viable, large amounts of biomass are needed. Very large kelp farms can be expensive to build and maintain, leading to the need to optimize the biomass per unit area. Although close spacing of growlines can lead to poor growth, a viable approach may be to grow two species of kelps together: one that hangs down and one that is buoyant, growing up. This system would increase the spacing in three dimensions. In Alaska, Saccharina latissima is commonly grown hanging down from longlines. One of the buoyant Alaskan kelps is Nereocystis luetkeana. Because there are commercial uses for wild-harvested Nereocystis in Alaska, we undertook a preliminary trial in Kodiak, Alaska that grew both Saccharina and Nereocystis in the same longline array. Closely spaced lines were seeded the first week of February 2023 and set at 3m below the surface. The arrays were harvested in late June 2023. Despite having 45% fewer grow-lines, the total yield of the Nereocystis on the combined arrays was statistically similar to the Nereocystis only arrays. Total yields were greatest on the combined arrays, followed by the Nereocystis only and Saccharina only arrays. These results may have significance for large scale macroalgal production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

2025 Workshop on Envisioning Frontiers in AI and Computing for Biological Research: Position Papers

This workshop aims to identify key research directions for transforming biology using artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and computational methods to facilitate the discovery of new behaviors, mechanisms, and designs of biological processes relevant to DOE missions, underpinning a broader U.S. bioeconomy. By developing novel AI/ML technologies to analyze and interpret complex biological data, researchers can organize and simulate biological processes at various scales as well as advance predictive understanding and manipulation of biological systems. This integration of computation, experimentation, and next-generation experimental technologies can lead to discoveries in new biological behaviors and mechanisms relevant to DOE missions. The focus is on how advanced computational and mathematical methods can impact this mission by exploring digital twins, foundation models, automated laboratory experiments, modeling of complex living systems, and data-driven approaches for the biodesign of plants and microbial systems. While data management is important, it is not the primary focus of this workshop, which will assess the current state, trends, and AI/ML challenges at the interface between biology and computational science to identify opportunities for high-impact research at their intersection. The goal is to define research needs and opportunities that align with biological sciences, computational sciences, and applied mathematics research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low concentration electrolyte: A new approach for achieving high performance lithium batteries

The conventional perspective suggests that low-concentration electrolytes (LCEs) face challenges in achieving stable charge/discharge properties due to the decreased ionic conductivity resulting from lower Li + concentrations. However, the successful utilization of LCEs in lithium/sodium-ion batteries has brought them into the forefront of consideration for high performance battery systems. It is possible to achieve improved interface stability and ion transport performance for LCEs through adjusting electrolyte components, such as salts, solvents, and additives. This review provides timely update of the recent research progress, design strategies and remaining challenges of LCEs to answer several questions: i) What is the key factor for designing LCEs? ii) How to balance the low salt concentration and good ionic conductivity? iii) What is the interphasial mechanism of anode/cathode in LCEs? Firstly, the development of LCEs is discussed with typical examples. Subsequently, effectiveness of solvents on overall performances of LCEs is comprehensively summarized in detail. Finally, the challenges and possible research direction of LCEs are discussed. This review provides critical guidance for designing novel electrolytes for secondary batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Protective Catalyst Systems on III-V and Si-based Semiconductors for Efficient, Durable Photoelectrochemical Water Splitting Devices

The overall goal of this project was to develop unassisted water splitting devices based on III-V materials, creating pathways to improve performance in terms of efficiency, improve durability, and cost. One major objective is to develop pathways to systems that can ultimately achieve > 20% solar-to-hydrogen (STH) efficiency. Another objective was to develop pathways to high efficiency systems that can operate on-sun for at least 2 weeks. With respect to cost, this research provide new approaches to tandem photoelectrode design and fabrication that one day may allow for costs to reach $200/m 2 . Two distinct water splitting schemes were explored: Scheme 1 aims to develop high efficiency devices with tandem III-V photoabsorbers (e.g. GaInP 2 /GaInAs) with Scheme 2 targeting cost reduction while maintaining high efficiency by growing InGaN on crystalline Si (InGaN/Si). Both schemes were employed to couple with thin film, semi-transparent, catalytic/protection layers containing reduced or zero precious metal content that can enhance durability while maintaining high efficiency and enabling low material costs. Overall the project greatly advanced the technology to developing high performance systems with increased durability, as demonstrated by true on-sun testing through partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technology pathways for energy- and water-efficient controlled environment agriculture: A review of technologies, implementation pathways, and regional use cases

Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) offers high-yield, climate-resilient food production, but high energy and resource demands challenge its sustainability. This paper synthesizes technologies that can improve outcomes across six categories—energy, CO 2 utilization, building envelope, hardware, water, and process—plus colocation strategies. We evaluate 80 technologies and define ten implementation pathways bundling complementary technologies to reduce energy use, optimize water consumption, and minimize emissions. Regional application is demonstrated through five U.S. case studies spanning different climates. A logic framework guides pathway selection for case studies based on climate, infrastructure, and regulatory context, informing context-sensitive technology deployment. Results show energy intensity reductions of 3–55 %, ranging from energy management programs to comprehensive lighting retrofits; water savings of 20–40 % through closed-loop recirculation; and emissions reductions of 3–100 %, with strategic energy management achieving 3–5 % and renewable electricity paired with electrified heating achieving up to 100 %. Text mining revealed that energy, hardware, and process technologies account for 91 % of literature coverage. Water, building envelope, and CO 2 utilization remain underexplored, indicating priorities for future research. This integrative approach to technology assessment supports growers, developers, and policymakers in aligning CEA system design with local conditions, improving resource efficiency and addressing gaps in cross-domain technology coverage.

Controlled environment agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nanoscale Quantum Imaging of Field-Free Deterministic Switching of a Chiral Antiferromagnet

Recently, unconventional spin-orbit torques (SOTs) with tunable spin generation have opened new pathways for designing novel magnetization control for cutting-edge spintronics innovations. A leading research thrust is to develop field-free deterministic magnetization switching for implementing scalable and energy favorable magnetic recording and storage, which have been demonstrated in conventional ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic material systems. Here, in this work, we extend this advanced magnetization control strategy to chiral antiferromagnet Mn 3 ⁢Sn using spin currents with out-of-plane canted polarization generated from low-symmetry van der Waals (vdW) material WTe 2 . Numerical calculations suggest that dampinglike SOT of spins injected perpendicular to the kagome plane of Mn 3⁢ Sn serves as a driving force to rotate the chiral magnetic order, while the fieldlike SOT of spin currents with polarization parallel to the kagome plane provides the bipolar deterministicity to the magnetic switching in the absence of an external magnetic field. We further introduce scanning quantum microscopy to visualize nanoscale evolutions of Mn 3 ⁢Sn magnetic domains during the field-free switching process, corroborating the exceptionally large magnetic switching ratio up to 90%. Our results highlight the opportunities provided by hybrid SOT material platforms consisting of noncollinear antiferromagnets and low-symmetry vdW spin source materials for developing next-generation spintronic logic devices.

2-dimesional systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗