Results for “Resilience Modeling” — Page 10

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Exploratory Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on Air Traffic Operations

Climate change is already happening and is projected to accelerate in the future. It will persist for the foreseeable future, even with optimistic projections of technological advances and behavior changes. It will make aviation more and more challenging over time. Among other things, it is expected to cause increased severe weather, more extreme temperatures, and rising sea levels that constrain when, where, and how aircraft can fly. NASA has many prior, ongoing, and upcoming efforts towards mitigating the impacts of aviation on climate change. There is also a need to perform a comprehensive investigation of the reverse: that is, the impacts of climate change on aviation. This is an initial exploratory study on this topic utilizing the NAS Digital Twin—composed of the ATM TestBed simulation platform and NAS Digital Twin airspace management algorithms—to run NAS-wide simulations with Convective Weather Avoidance Model polygons at different avoidance thresholds to emulate the increase in severe weather that could manifest due to climate change. It was found that air traffic management may be able to limit the impact of climate change in terms of delay and fuel burn. However, increased severe weather due to climate change can make separation—particularly, aircraft-to-weather separation—more challenging by reducing available airspace and constraining the solution space. Challenging situations were identified and corresponding potential solutions were proposed towards ensuring air traffic operations continue to be robust and resilient to the impacts of increased severe weather due to climate change.

climate change, weather, air traffic operations↗

NASA NTRS1989

A performance assessment of a byzantine resilient fault-tolerant computer

This report presents the results of a performance analysis of a quad-redundant Fault-Tolerant Processor (FTP). The FTP is a computing system specifically designed for applications where very high reliability is required. Examples of such applications are flight control systems, nuclear power systems, and spacecraft control systems. The FTP performance was analyzed in a hierarchical manner encompassing the hardware, the operating system, and the application. At the hardware level, the hardware organization and design was assessed in relation to system throughput and response. Analysis at the operating system level revealed that the scheduler took only 3.2 percent of each 40ms frame, while the redundancy management software took 10.4 percent. The application level performance was analyzed via a synthetic workload and a representative flight control model. The estimated throughput for this application was found to be 317.6 KIPS if not exercising the voter. Exercising the voter to ensure fault tolerance will diminish this number linearly as the number of votes is increased. This performance analysis method was proven effective by uncovering undesirable behavior and anomalies in the FTP system.

Young, Steven D.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Simulation and Modeling Concepts for Secure Airspace Operations

This paper examines cyber security vulnerabilities of Urban Air Mobility operations. With the expected advent of new entrants including Unmanned Aerial Systems, Commercial Launch Vehicles and Urban Air Mobility aircraft, the future United States National Airspace System will have to evolve to include their operations along with the current commercial, general aviation and military operations. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration are working together to provide a vision for aviation operations in the future—2045 and beyond. Their National Airspace System Horizons initiative seeks to provide stakeholders a list of operational scenarios and technologies, concepts and strategies needed for supporting that vision. They have identified cybersecurity as one of the seven strategic interest areas for realizing this vision. Consequently, NASA is studying cyber resiliency for secure airspace operations. While there are many pathways to attack a cyber physical system such as Urban Air Mobility, their effect is expressed in modification or corruption of data/information used for controlling vehicles and making operational decisions. The paper describes cybersecurity technologies of Encryption, Blockchain, Virtual Information Fabric Infrastructure, Trusted Platform Module and Anomaly Detection for protecting the data, and the cyber resiliency of the current and future air traffic management system.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS2021

Simulation and Modeling Concepts for Secure Airspace Operations

This paper examines cyber security vulnerabilities of Urban Air Mobility operations. With the expected advent of new entrants including Unmanned Aerial Systems, Commercial Launch Vehicles and Urban Air Mobility aircraft, the future United States National Airspace System will have to evolve to include their operations along with the current commercial, general aviation and military operations. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration are working together to provide a vision for aviation operations in the future—2045 and beyond. Their National Airspace System Horizons initiative seeks to provide stakeholders a list of operational scenarios and technologies, concepts and strategies needed for supporting that vision. They have identified cybersecurity as one of the seven strategic interest areas for realizing this vision. Consequently, NASA is studying cyber resiliency for secure airspace operations. While there are many pathways to attack a cyber physical system such as Urban Air Mobility, their effect is expressed in modification or corruption of data/information used for controlling vehicles and making operational decisions. The paper describes cybersecurity technologies of Encryption, Blockchain, Virtual Information Fabric Infrastructure, Trusted Platform Module and Anomaly Detection for protecting the data, and the cyber resiliency of the current and future air traffic management system.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS2020

Southern Colorado Disasters: Using NASA Observations to Map Aspen Extent and Recovery Due to Wildfire

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is an important species for wildlife, watershed health, and ecosystem resilience across its range. Heavy ungulate browsing and factors influenced by a changing climate including seasonal temperature changes and moisture deficit have led to reduced post-fire aspen regeneration rates in southern Colorado. This project partnered with Trinchera Ranch and the Colorado State Forest Service to estimate aspen recovery after the Spring Creek Fire, which ignited in June of 2018. The Southern Colorado Disasters team utilized field measurements and satellite imagery from Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to train and run several random forest models that detect pre- and post-fire aspen extent. Ocular sampling of over 500 points on high-resolution pre-fire and post-fire images identified percentage aspen cover in 30 x 30-meter grid cells. This process provided training data for regression models, which were able to detect aspen across the landscape for both time periods using multiple remote sensing vegetation health indices. In addition, landscape suitability for aspen regeneration was modeled to provide a guide for managers on where to monitor for aspen regeneration post-fire.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRS2020

Southern Colorado Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Map Aspen Extent and Recovery Due to Wildfire

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is an important species for wildlife, watershed health, and ecosystem resilience across its range. Heavy ungulate browsing and factors influenced by a changing climate including seasonal temperature changes and moisture deficit have led to reduced post-fire aspen regeneration rates in southern Colorado. This project partnered with Trinchera Ranch and the Colorado State Forest Service to estimate aspen recovery after the Spring Creek Fire, which ignited in June of 2018. The Southern Colorado Disasters team utilized field measurements and satellite imagery from Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to train and run several random forest models that detect pre- and post-fire aspen extent. Ocular sampling of over 500 points on high-resolution pre-fire and post-fire images identified percentage aspen cover in 30 x 30-meter grid cells. This process provided training data for regression models, which were able to detect aspen across the landscape for both time periods using multiple remote sensing vegetation health indices. In addition, landscape suitability for aspen regeneration was modeled to provide a guide for managers on where to monitor for aspen regeneration post-fire.

DEVELOP Technical Paper↗

NASA NTRS1990

Quantifying fault recovery in multiprocessor systems

Various aspects of reliable computing are formalized and quantified with emphasis on efficient fault recovery. The mathematical model which proves to be most appropriate is provided by the theory of graphs. New measures for fault recovery are developed and the value of elements of the fault recovery vector are observed to depend not only on the computation graph H and the architecture graph G, but also on the specific location of a fault. In the examples, a hypercube is chosen as a representative of parallel computer architecture, and a pipeline as a typical configuration for program execution. Dependability qualities of such a system is defined with or without a fault. These qualities are determined by the resiliency triple defined by three parameters: multiplicity, robustness, and configurability. Parameters for measuring the recovery effectiveness are also introduced in terms of distance, time, and the number of new, used, and moved nodes and edges.

Malek, Miroslaw↗

NASA NTRS2007

Resilient Propulsion Control Research for the NASA Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project

Gas turbine engines are designed to provide sufficient safety margins to guarantee robust operation with an exceptionally long life. However, engine performance requirements may be drastically altered during abnormal flight conditions or emergency maneuvers. In some situations, the conservative design of the engine control system may not be in the best interest of overall aircraft safety; it may be advantageous to "sacrifice" the engine to "save" the aircraft. Motivated by this opportunity, the NASA Aviation Safety Program is conducting resilient propulsion research aimed at developing adaptive engine control methodologies to operate the engine beyond the normal domain for emergency operations to maximize the possibility of safely landing the damaged aircraft. Previous research studies and field incident reports show that the propulsion system can be an effective tool to help control and eventually land a damaged aircraft. Building upon the flight-proven Propulsion Controlled Aircraft (PCA) experience, this area of research will focus on how engine control systems can improve aircraft safe-landing probabilities under adverse conditions. This paper describes the proposed research topics in Engine System Requirements, Engine Modeling and Simulation, Engine Enhancement Research, Operational Risk Analysis and Modeling, and Integrated Flight and Propulsion Controller Designs that support the overall goal.

Guo, Ten-Huei↗

NASA NTRS2010

Playing a 3-Stringed Violin: Innovation via the Joint Evolution of People, Process, and Knowledge Management System

Users continuously evaluate the value and performance of their Knowledge Management Systems (KMS). As suggested by a punctuated socio-technical system process model, today's success can quickly become tomorrow's failure should the KMS fail to meet evolving needs and expectations. The more deeply a tool is embedded in the actual work process, the more vulnerable it is to emergent changes and perturbations. This paper uses the metaphor of a "3-stringed violin" to explore how differing levels of user knowledge about tools and processes can lead to system perturbations and how the active involvement of other actors can dampen the impact of perturbations, i.e., help the system survive the operational equivalent of a broken string. Recommendations suggest ways to increase system resiliency and contribute to incremental innovation.

Socio-technical systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Role of PHM in Autonomous Decision-Making: Aerospace applications

There is an increased need for onboard decision-making capabilities in cyber-physical systems be it in energy, automotive, aviation, space, or other industries as they aim for increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission assurance capabilities. Emerging next-gen technologies such as multi-rover planetary missions, distributed satellites, unmanned ground and aerial vehicle operations and smart grid systems rely on in-time risk assessment and autonomous decision-making. One critical piece of the autonomy puzzle is reliable prediction of system behavior under time-varying and potentially uncertain environmental conditions. Further, if agent states change during operation such as initiation of faults or degradation, reliable diagnostic tools need to be investigated. In this tutorial, we will revise approaches that integrates existing physics-based and data-driven models of agents interacting with probability models of the environment and component operation state. Role of existing PHM methodologies as they feed into decision-making under uncertainty will be studied. Balancing critical trade-offs between high-fidelity prognostic models, prediction time-horizons and the computational requirements for in-time cost-effective decision-making will be discussed through the implementation of surrogate models. Finally, the audience will be introduced to a real-time application of in-time trajectory planning of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) based on its PHM assessments under uncertain and varying wind conditions.

decision-making↗

NASA NTRS2021

Fairfax County Urban Development: Identifying Urban Heat Mitigation Strategies for Climate Adaptation Planning in Fairfax County, Virginia

Extreme high temperatures lead to increased instances of cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, and even death, as well as increased energy consumption and infrastructure costs. People in urbanized areas experience higher temperatures than rural areas due to diminished vegetation and increased impervious surfaces which absorb and radiate heat. Fairfax County, Virginia has embarked on Resilient Fairfax, a program aimed at addressing climate adaptation and resilience. The DEVELOP team partnered with the Fairfax County Office of Environmental and Energy Coordination (OEEC) to assess the extent of the urban heat island effect on the county and its most vulnerable populations. The team used data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), as well as the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) for the years 2013 to 2021 and found that the hottest spots were in densely urbanized areas, with temperatures as much as 47°F above that of undeveloped reference areas. The team used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model and determined that areas with higher tree canopy cover had greater heat mitigation capacity. Estimates from the InVEST model showed that a 4.5% increase in canopy cover across the county could result in a temperature reduction of up to 2.4°F in some areas. The results will allow partners to assess heat distribution across Fairfax County and implement effective mitigation strategies, including locating prime locations for cooling centers and increasing canopy cover.

W. Pierce Holloway↗

NASA NTRS2016

Climate Change Adaptation Activities at the NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center, FL., USA

In 2010, the Office of Strategic Infrastructure and Earth Sciences established the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) program to integrate climate change forecasts and knowledge into sustainable management of infrastructure and operations needed for the NASA mission. NASA operates 10 field centers valued at $32 billion dollars, occupies 191,000 acres and employs 58,000 people. CASI climate change and sea-level rise forecasts focus on the 2050 and 2080 time periods. At the 140,000 acre Kennedy Space Center (KSC) data are used to simulate impacts on infrastructure, operations, and unique natural resources. KSC launch and processing facilities represent a valued national asset located in an area with high biodiversity including 33 species of special management concern. Numerical and advanced Bayesian and Monte Carlo statistical modeling is being conducted using LiDAR digital elevation models coupled with relevant GIS layers to assess potential future conditions. Results are provided to the Environmental Management Branch, Master Planning, Construction of Facilities, Engineering Construction Innovation Committee and our regional partners to support Spaceport development, management, and adaptation planning and design. Potential impacts to natural resources include conversion of 50% of the Center to open water, elevation of the surficial aquifer, alterations of rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns, conversion of salt marsh to mangrove forest, reductions in distribution and extent of upland habitats, overwash of the barrier island dune system, increases in heat stress days, and releases of chemicals from legacy contamination sites. CASI has proven successful in bringing climate change planning to KSC including recognition of the need to increase resiliency and development of a green managed shoreline retreat approach to maintain coastal ecosystem services while maximizing life expectancy of Center launch and payload processing resources.

plant communities↗

NASA NTRS2007

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

heat-related mortality↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Integrally Formed Metallic Structures

NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) is applying flow forming technology to aerospace aluminum alloys for the manufacture of integrally stiffened cylinders that meet aircraft fuselage or launch vehicle specifications. High-strength 2xxx series alloys, in various temper/product form conditions, are being compared with medium-strength, very formable AA 6061 as the benchmark. Screening of candidate materials traditionally relies on empirical forming trials, but more recently on metrics derived from constant nominal strain rate tensile testing. In this work, the established hierarchy of formability metrics is adopted as the baseline; tensile area reduction, work hardening exponent, and modulus of resilience. The suite of metrics can be expanded based on phenomenological and mechanistic considerations of plastic flow instabilities to incorporate anisotropy ratio, rate of work hardening, and dynamic strain aging effects. Separate research thrusts at LaRC are aimed at formulating a protocol for scalable production of fully formed, defect-free components: 1) quantifying the extended set of formability metrics from constant and jump strain rate tensile tests with digital image correlation (DIC); 2) using statistically designed experiments on a vertical spin/flow forming facility (WF VUD-600®) to isolate the effect of convenient process variables, such as axial feed rate and thickness reduction; and 3) predicting the effect of feed ratio (roller translation relative to mandrel rotation speeds) on material response via process modeling using the DEFORM® simulation software. Current results will be discussed in terms of correlating intrinsic material properties with the bulk workability characteristics to successfully fabricate cylinders with complex cross-sections.

Aluminum↗

NASA NTRS2022

Adaptations of Endolithic Communities to Abrupt Environmental Changes in A Hyper-Arid Desert

The adaptation mechanisms of microbial communities to natural perturbations remain relatively unexplored, particularly in extreme environments. The extremophilic communities of halite (NaCl) nodules from the hyper-arid core of the Atacama Desert are self-sustained and represent a unique opportunity to study functional adaptations and community dynamics with changing environmental conditions. We transplanted halite nodules to different sites in the desert and investigated how their taxonomic, cellular, and biochemical changes correlated with water availability, using environmental data modeling and metagenomic analyses. Salt-in strategists, mainly represented by haloarchaea, significantly increased in relative abundance at sites characterized by extreme dryness, multiple wet/dry cycles, and colder conditions. The functional analysis of metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) revealed site-specific enrichments in archaeal MAGs encoding for the uptake of various compatible solutes and for glycerol utilization. These findings suggest that opportunistic salt-in strategists took over the halite communities at the driest sites. They most likely benefited from metabolites newly released in the environment by the death of microorganisms least adapted to the new conditions. The observed changes were consistent with the need to maximize cellular bioenergetics when confronted with lower water availability and higher salinity, providing valuable information on microbial community adaptations and resilience to climate change.

Atacama↗