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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Great Basin Ecological Forecasting II: Assessing and Forecasting Live Fuel Moisture Content of Wildfire Fuels for the Eastern Great Basin to Improve Wildfire Timing and Severity Predictions

The eastern Great Basin (EGB) extends throughout the states of Arizona, Colorado,Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, covering approximately 411,000 km2. In recent years, wildfires in the EGB have increased in frequency and size, representing a growing concern for our partners at the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the National Weather Service (NWS), and the Great Basin Coordination Center (GBCC). Live fuel moisture (LFM) is an important factor in predicting wildfire risk, as dry vegetation requires less energy to combust than wet vegetation. Land managers currently derive LFM levels from just 165 in situ sites in the EGB. In order to provide partners with a more accurate assessment of LFM, the team used data from the National Elevation Dataset, Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite. These datasets include vegetation indices, evapotranspiration, and topographic variables, which were used to create biweekly forecasts of LFM throughout the EGB. An accuracy assessment was conducted using historical in situ data from our partners at the BLM and the GBCC. This model allowed our partners to make informed decisions regarding resource allocation in response to the predicted timing and severity of wildfires in the EGB.

Ecological Forecasting↗
NASA NTRS2020

Great Basin Ecological Forecasting II: Assessing and Forecasting Live Fuel Moisture Content of Wildfire Fuels for the Eastern Great Basin to Improve Wildfire Timing and Severity Predictions

The eastern Great Basin (EGB) extends throughout the states of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, covering approximately 411,000 sq.km. In recent years, wildfires in the EGB have increased in frequency and size, representing a growing concern for our partners at the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the National Weather Service (NWS), and the Great Basin Coordination Center (GBCC). Live fuel moisture (LFM) is an important factor in predicting wildfire risk, as dry vegetation requires less energy to combust than wet vegetation. Land managers currently derive LFM levels from just 165 in situ sites in the EGB. In order to provide partners with a more accurate assessment of LFM, the team used data from the National Elevation Dataset, Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite. These datasets include vegetation indices, evapotranspiration, and topographic variables, which were used to create biweekly forecasts of LFM throughout the EGB. An accuracy assessment was conducted using historical in situ data from our partners at the BLM and the GBCC. This model allowed our partners to make informed decisions regarding resource allocation in response to the predicted timing and severity of wildfires in the EGB.

Ecological Forecasting↗
NASA NTRS2008

Automated Generation and Assessment of Autonomous Systems Test Cases

This slide presentation reviews some of the issues concerning verification and validation testing of autonomous spacecraft routinely culminates in the exploration of anomalous or faulted mission-like scenarios using the work involved during the Dawn mission's tests as examples. Prioritizing which scenarios to develop usually comes down to focusing on the most vulnerable areas and ensuring the best return on investment of test time. Rules-of-thumb strategies often come into play, such as injecting applicable anomalies prior to, during, and after system state changes; or, creating cases that ensure good safety-net algorithm coverage. Although experience and judgment in test selection can lead to high levels of confidence about the majority of a system's autonomy, it's likely that important test cases are overlooked. One method to fill in potential test coverage gaps is to automatically generate and execute test cases using algorithms that ensure desirable properties about the coverage. For example, generate cases for all possible fault monitors, and across all state change boundaries. Of course, the scope of coverage is determined by the test environment capabilities, where a faster-than-real-time, high-fidelity, software-only simulation would allow the broadest coverage. Even real-time systems that can be replicated and run in parallel, and that have reliable set-up and operations features provide an excellent resource for automated testing. Making detailed predictions for the outcome of such tests can be difficult, and when algorithmic means are employed to produce hundreds or even thousands of cases, generating predicts individually is impractical, and generating predicts with tools requires executable models of the design and environment that themselves require a complete test program. Therefore, evaluating the results of large number of mission scenario tests poses special challenges. A good approach to address this problem is to automatically score the results based on a range of metrics. Although the specific means of scoring depends highly on the application, the use of formal scoring - metrics has high value in identifying and prioritizing anomalies, and in presenting an overall picture of the state of the test program. In this paper we present a case study based on automatic generation and assessment of faulted test runs for the Dawn mission, and discuss its role in optimizing the allocation of resources for completing the test program.

Testing challenges↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Study of Fallout Metrics for Contamination Analysis

A challenge present in assessing contamination accumulation on many missions is predicting fallout during ground processing given the multiple and various orientations possible for surfaces such as optics and instruments. The best practice assumption has been to quantify particle build up on vertical surfaces as approximately 1/10 that of horizontal surfaces. This fractional relation is important when considering contamination allocations necessary to meet cleanliness requirements since spacecraft can be in many orientations during integration and testing. There is insufficient data to provide confidence in the 1/10 approximation, yet its use can have a significant effect on mission end of life contamination level predictions, leading to expenditures of precious resources to meet mission requirements. A study was conducted to compare and analyze the fallout in horizontal and vertical orientations. Silicon wafers were deployed in four different facilities. Data sets from a long term deployment of wafers were analyzed from a cleanroom facility housing integration of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) as well as from a shorter term deployment of wafers in three cleanroom facilities at Goddard Space Flight Center with lower activity. There are many variables influencing the relationship between fallout on vertical and horizontal wafers, including wafer position with respect to air flow, air changes in the facility, duration of exposure, and activity workload. The goal of this continuing study is to develop a tool to inform particulate accumulation predictions for future projects.

Contamination↗
NASA NTRS2013

Automatic Data Filter Customization Using a Genetic Algorithm

This work predicts whether a retrieval algorithm will usefully determine CO2 concentration from an input spectrum of GOSAT (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite). This was done to eliminate needless runtime on atmospheric soundings that would never yield useful results. A space of 50 dimensions was examined for predictive power on the final CO2 results. Retrieval algorithms are frequently expensive to run, and wasted effort defeats requirements and expends needless resources. This algorithm could be used to help predict and filter unneeded runs in any computationally expensive regime. Traditional methods such as the Fischer discriminant analysis and decision trees can attempt to predict whether a sounding will be properly processed. However, this work sought to detect a subsection of the dimensional space that can be simply filtered out to eliminate unwanted runs. LDAs (linear discriminant analyses) and other systems examine the entire data and judge a "best fit," giving equal weight to complex and problematic regions as well as simple, clear-cut regions. In this implementation, a genetic space of "left" and "right" thresholds outside of which all data are rejected was defined. These left/right pairs are created for each of the 50 input dimensions. A genetic algorithm then runs through countless potential filter settings using a JPL computer cluster, optimizing the tossed-out data s yield (proper vs. improper run removal) and number of points tossed. This solution is robust to an arbitrary decision boundary within the data and avoids the global optimization problem of whole-dataset fitting using LDA or decision trees. It filters out runs that would not have produced useful CO2 values to save needless computation. This would be an algorithmic preprocessing improvement to any computationally expensive system.

Mandrake, Lukas↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Methodology for Measuring Blade Clearance on an Operating Utility-Scale Wind Turbine

This report describes the deployment of eleven laser sensors to measure the clearance between blades and tower in a 1.5-MW wind turbine whose rotor was mounted first in upwind and then in downwind configurations. The experimental recordings are compared to the numerical predictions generated by an aeroservoelastic model of the turbine. Good agreement is found between the two datasets, although discrepancies up to 30~cm are observed. The sources of this error are discussed. This methodology is found to be a valuable resource for the validation of the numerical predictions of the flapwise deflections of wind turbine blades. The accurate prediction of these deflections is increasingly important as wind turbines grow in size and become increasingly flexible.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation

Abstract Colorado River streamflow has decreased 19% since 2000. Spring (March‐April‐May) weather strongly influences Upper Colorado River streamflow because it controls not only water input but also when snow melts and how much energy is available for evaporation when soils are wettest. Since 2000, spring precipitation decreased by 14% on average across 26 unregulated headwater basins, but this decrease did not fully account for the reduced streamflow. In drier springs, increases in energy from reduced cloud cover, and lowered surface albedo from earlier snow disappearance, coincided with potential evapotranspiration (PET) increases of up to 10%. Combining spring precipitation decreases with PET increases accounted for 67% of the variance in post‐2000 streamflow deficits. Streamflow deficits were most substantial in lower elevation basins (<2,950 m), where snowmelt occurred earliest, and precipitation declines were largest. Refining seasonal spring precipitation forecasts is imperative for future water availability predictions in this snow‐dominated water resource region.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗
DOE OSTI2026

Center for Integrated Simulation of Fusion Relevant RF Actuators

This project was part of the “Center for Integrated Simulation of Fusion Relevant RF Actuators” SciDAC-4 project, led by Dr. Paul Bonoli (MIT). Rather than use an acronym (CISFRRFA), the project will be referred to in this document as the “RF-SciDAC4”. The larger SciDAC-4 project goals were to: 1. Develop an integrated simulation of the antenna + sheath + scrape-off-layer + core plasma system which fully utilizes leadership class computing resources to move towards a quantitative predictive capability for the response to RF power. 2. Work closely with the SciDAC-4 Whole Device Modeling (WDM) community to make both our new code development efforts, as well as the established hierarchy of RF tools, available within their environment, and to utilize WDM technologies to implement the couplings below. 3. Validate this predictive capability on appropriately diagnosed experiments including dedicated RF test stands, linear devices, and existing tokamaks. 4. Use these tools to inform design of robust, impurity-mitigating RF heating and current drive sources for future fusion devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1971

Simulation of ERTS RBV imagery.

Based on the signal-to-noise ratio, modulation transfer function (MTF), and light transfer characteristics of the return-beam vidicon (RBV) multispectral three-camera subsystem, developed for use on earth resources technology satellites (ERTS), an analytical prediction of the resolvability of ground targets was made as a function of target size, contrast, spectral distribution, and radiance level. To determine whether the analysis was correct, U.S. Air Force targets with various contrasts were utilized to simulate those contrasts and radiance levels that the RBV cameras would see in the actual ERTS scenes. Although the RBV camera used in this test had a somewhat lower signal-to-noise ratio than the flight cameras, the simulation still proved the validity of the theoretical analysis in predicting resolving power performance for any set of input parameters.

Weinstein, O.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Space benefits to mankind as seen from a French point of view

Benefits to mankind from space as determined from the French space programs are outlined. Data cover improved photographs for predicting numerical atmospheric parameters, monitoring natural resources via satellite from increased aircraft and balloon heights, and the use of satellites as navigation aids. The use of space research to improve international cooperation is also discussed.

Pujes, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Engineering in the 21st century

Reasonable evolutionary trends in federal outlays for aerospace research and development predict a continuing decline in real resources (1970 dollars) until the mid eighties, and a growth thereafter to the 1970 level by 2000, still well below the 1966 peak. Employment levels will parallel this trend with no shortage of available personnel foreseen. These trends characterize a maturing industry. Shifts in outlook toward the economic use of resources, rather than minimum risk at any cost, and toward missions aligned with societal needs and broad national goals will accompany these trends. These shifts in outlook will arise in part in academia, and will, in turn, influence engineering education. By 2000, space technology will have achieved major advances in the management of information, in space transportation, in space structures, and in energy. The economics of space systems must be the primary consideration if the space program foreseen for the 21st century is to become an actuality.

Mccarthy, J. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1986

An architecture for intelligent interfaces - Outline of an approach to supporting operators of complex systems

The conceptual design of a comprehensive support system for operators of complex systems is presented. Key functions within the support system architecture include information management, error monitoring, and adaptive aiding. One of the central knowledge bases underlying this functionality is an operator model that involves a 'matrix' of algorithmic and symbolic models for assessing and predicting an operator's activities, awareness resources, intentions, and performance. Functional block diagrams are presented for the overall architecture as well as the key elements within this architecture. A variety of difficult design issues are discussed and ongoing efforts aimed at resolving these issues are noted.

Rouse, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The effect of processing code, response modality and task difficulty on dual task performance and subjective workload in a manual system

This paper reports on the first experiment of a series studying the effect of task structure and difficulty demand on time-sharing performance and workload in both automated and corresponding manual systems. The experimental task involves manual control time-shared with spatial and verbal decisions tasks of two levels of difficulty and two modes of response (voice or manual). The results provide strong evidence that tasks and processes competing for common processing resources are time shared less effecively and have higher workload than tasks competing for separate resources. Subjective measures and the structure of multiple resources are used in conjunction to predict dual task performance. The evidence comes from both single-task and from dual-task performance.

Liu, Yili↗
NASA NTRS1992

Resource constrained design of artificial neural networks using comparator neural network

We present a systematic design method executed under resource constraints for automating the design of artificial neural networks using the back error propagation algorithm. Our system aims at finding the best possible configuration for solving the given application with proper tradeoff between the training time and the network complexity. The design of such a system is hampered by three related problems. First, there are infinitely many possible network configurations, each may take an exceedingly long time to train; hence, it is impossible to enumerate and train all of them to completion within fixed time, space, and resource constraints. Second, expert knowledge on predicting good network configurations is heuristic in nature and is application dependent, rendering it difficult to characterize fully in the design process. A learning procedure that refines this knowledge based on examples on training neural networks for various applications is, therefore, essential. Third, the objective of the network to be designed is ill-defined, as it is based on a subjective tradeoff between the training time and the network cost. A design process that proposes alternate configurations under different cost-performance tradeoff is important. We have developed a Design System which schedules the available time, divided into quanta, for testing alternative network configurations. Its goal is to select/generate and test alternative network configurations in each quantum, and find the best network when time is expended. Since time is limited, a dynamic schedule that determines the network configuration to be tested in each quantum is developed. The schedule is based on relative comparison of predicted training times of alternative network configurations using comparator network paradigm. The comparator network has been trained to compare training times for a large variety of traces of TSSE-versus-time collected during back-propagation learning of various applications.

Wah, Benjamin W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

PC4CAST: A tool for DSN load forecasting and capacity planning

Effectively planning the use and evolution of the Deep Space Network (DSN) is a complex problem involving many parameters. The tool that models many of these complexities, yet requires simple structured inputs and provides concise easy-to-understand metrics to aid in the planning process is discussed. The tool, PC4CAST, is used for both load forecasting (predicting how well planned that DSN resources meet expected demand) and as a decision support tool in the capacity-planning process (determining the relative benefits of capacity expansion options). It is now in use in the TDA Planning Office, has been used in numerous studies, and is also being used by the JPL Multimission Operations System Office (MOSO) as an integral part of Resource Allocation Team activities. Experience using the tool has helped to identify additional requirements that will further improve the planning process, which can be met by future PC4CAST versions.

Loyola, S. J.↗