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Results for “SOLAR ACTIVITY EFFECT”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
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NASA NTRS1984

Solar influence on terrestrial weather and global lightning patterns via cosmic ray modulations

A series of cosmic ray neutron monitor data which were used in three analyses: (1) solar activity influence on ionization of the upper troposphere and tropopause; (2) solar activity influence on Canadian high stratus in winter; and (3) the S3-4 satellite study of IMF/GMF magnetic coupling effects are reported. The magnetic coupling model of solar activity influence on atmospheric processes were investigated. The magnetic coupling model is used to explain a number of seemingly diverse studies lightning incidence is emphasized.

Ely, J. T. A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

CME Evolution in the Structured Heliosphere and Effects at Earth and Mars During Solar Minimum

The activity of the Sun alternates between a solar minimum and a solar maximum, the former corresponding to a period of “quieter” status of the heliosphere. During solar minimum, it is in principle more straightforward to follow eruptive events and solar wind structures from their birth at the Sun throughout their interplanetary journey. In this paper, we report analysis of the origin, evolution, and heliospheric impact of a series of solar transient events that took place during the second half of August 2018, that is, in the midst of the late declining phase of Solar Cycle 24. In particular, we focus on two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and a following high-speed stream (HSS) on their way toward Earth and Mars. We find that the first CME impacted both planets, whilst the second caused a strong magnetic storm at Earth and went on to miss Mars, which nevertheless experienced space weather effects from the stream interacting region preceding the HSS. Analysis of remote-sensing and in-situ data supported by heliospheric modeling suggests that CME–HSS interaction resulted in the second CME rotating and deflecting in interplanetary space, highlighting that accurately reproducing the ambient solar wind is crucial even during “simpler” solar minimum periods. Lastly, we discuss the upstream solar wind conditions and transient structures responsible for driving space weather effects at Earth and Mars.

Space weather↗
NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) A Geomagnetic Contribution to Climate Change in this Century

There is a myth that all solar effects can be parameterized by the sun spot number. This is not true. For example, the level of geomagnetic activity during this century was not proportional to the sunspot number. Instead there is a large systematic increase in geomagnetic activity, not reflected in the sunspot number. This increase occurred gradually over at least 60 years. The 11 year solar cycle variation was superimposed on this systematic increase. Here we show that this systematic increase in activity is well correlated to the simultaneous increase in terrestrial temperature that occurred during the first half of this century. We discuss these findings in terms of mechanisms by which geomagnetics can be coupled to climate. These mechanisms include possible changes in weather patterns and cloud cover due to increased cosmic ray fluxes, or to increased fluxes of high energy electrons. We suggest that this systematic increase in geomagnetic activity contributed (along with anthropogenic effects and possible changes in solar irradiance) to the changes in climate recorded during this period.

electrons solar irradiance terrestrial temperature↗
NASA NTRS1997

DAC-3 Pointing Stability Analysis Results for SAGE 3 and Other Users of the International Space Station (ISS) Payload Attachment Sites (PAS)

The purpose of this paper is to provide final results of a pointing stability analysis for external payload attachment sites (PAS) on the International Space Station (ISS). As a specific example, the pointing stability requirement of the SAGE III atmospheric science instrument was examined in this paper. The instrument requires 10 arcsec stability over 2 second periods. SAGE 3 will be mounted on the ISS starboard side at the lower, outboard FIAS. In this engineering analysis, an open-loop DAC-3 finite element model of ISS was used by the Microgravity Group at Johnson Space Flight Center to generate transient responses at PAS to a limited number of disturbances. The model included dynamics up to 50 Hz. Disturbance models considered included operation of the solar array rotary joints, thermal radiator rotary joints, and control moment gyros. Responses were filtered to model the anticipated vibration attenuation effects of active control systems on the solar and thermal radiator rotary joints. A pointing stability analysis was conducted by double integrating acceleration transient over a 2 second period. Results of the analysis are tabulated for ISS X, Y, and Z Axis rotations. These results indicate that the largest excursions in rotation during pointing occurred due to rapid slewing of the thermal radiator. Even without attenuation at the rotary joints, the resulting pointing error was limited to less than 1.6 arcsec. With vibration control at the joints, to a maximum 0.5 arcsec over a 2 second period. Based on this current level of model definition, it was concluded that between 0 - 50 Hz, the pointing stability requirement for SAGE 3 will not be exceeded by the disturbances evaluated in this study.

Woods-Vedeler, Jessica A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Atmospheric drag model calibrations for spacecraft lifetime prediction

Although solar activity prediction uncertainty normally dominates decay prediction error budget for near-Earth spacecraft, the effect of drag force modeling errors for given levels of solar activity needs to be considered. Two atmospheric density models, the modified Harris-Priester model and the Jacchia-Roberts model, to reproduce the decay histories of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft in the 490- to 540-kilometer altitude range were analyzed. Historical solar activity data were used in the input to the density computations. For each spacecraft and atmospheric model, a drag scaling adjustment factor was determined for a high-solar-activity year, such that the observed annual decay in the mean semimajor axis was reproduced by an averaged variation-of-parameters (VOP) orbit propagation. The SME (SMM) calibration was performed using calendar year 1983 (1982). The resulting calibration factors differ by 20 to 40 percent from the predictions of the prelaunch ballistic coefficients. The orbit propagations for each spacecraft were extended to the middle of 1988 using the calibrated drag models. For the Jaccia-Roberts density model, the observed decay in the mean semimajor axis of SME (SMM) over the 4.5-year (5.5-year) predictive period was reproduced to within 1.5 (4.4) percent. The corresponding figure for the Harris-Priester model was 8.6 (20.6) percent. Detailed results and conclusions regarding the importance of accurate drag force modeling for lifetime predictions are presented.

Binebrink, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

DC and Structured Electric Fields Observed on the C/NOFS Satellite and Their Association with Longitude, Plasma Density, and Solar Activity

Observations of DC electric fields and associated E x B plasma drifts gathered by the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite are presented. We show statistical averages of the vector fields and resulting E x B plasma flows for the first three years of operations as a function of season, longitude, local time, and Fl 0.7 conditions. Magnetic field data from the VEFI science magnetometer are used to compute the plasma flows. Although typically displaying eastward and outward-directed fields during the day and westward and downward-directed fields at night, the data from DC electric field detector often reveal variations from this pattern that depend on longitude, solar activity, and plasma density. Clear "wave-4" tidal effects in both electric field components have been detected and will be presented. Zonal plasma drifts show a marked variation with solar activity and may be used as a proxy for neutral winds at night. Evidence for pre-reversal enhancements in the meridional drifts that depend on solar activity is present for some longitudes, and are corroborated by clear evidence in the plasma density data that the spacecraft journeyed below the F-peak during evenings when the rise in the ionosphere is most pronounced. In addition to DC electric fields, the data reveal considerable electric field structures at large scales (approx 100's of km) that are usually confined to the nightside. Although such electric field structures are typically associated with plasma density depletions and structures, what is surprising is the number of cases in which large amplitude, structured DC electric fields are observed without a significant plasma density counterpart structure, including their appearance at times when the ambient plasma density appears relatively quiescent. We investigate the mapping of structured electric fields along magnetic field lines from distant locations and consider tropospheric thunderstorm sources to explain some of the observations. The dependence of the structuring on season and solar activity will be reported and discussed.

Pfaff, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Sun, Its Extended Corona, the Interplanetary Space, the Earth's Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Middle and Low Atmosphere, are All Parts of a Complex System - the Heliosphere

Various manifestations of solar activity cause disturbances known as space weather effects in the interplanetary space, near-Earth environment, and all the Earth's "spheres. Longterm variations in the frequency, intensity and relative importance of the manifestations of solar activity are due to the slow changes in the output of the solar dynamo, and they define space climate. Space climate governs long-term variations in geomagnetic activity and is the primary natural driver of terrestrial climate. To understand how the variable solar activity affects the Earth's environment, geomagnetic activity and climate on both short and long time scales, we need to understand the origins of solar activity itself and its different manifestations, as well as the sequence of coupling processes linking various parts of the system. This session provides a forum to discuss the chain of processes and relations from the Sun to the Earth's surface: the origin and long-term and short-term evolution of solar activity, initiation and temporal variations in solar flares, CMEs, coronal holes, the solar wind and its interaction with the terrestrial magnetosphere, the ionosphere and its connection to the neutral dominated regions below and the plasma dominated regions above, the stratosphere, its variations due to the changing solar activity and its interactions with the underlying troposphere, and the mechanisms of solar influences on the lower atmosphere on different time-scales. Particularly welcome are papers highlighting the coupling processes between the different domains in this complex system.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗
NASA NTRS1979

Solar-induced variations of environment affecting manned space flight and spacecraft operations

Estimates of short and long term solar activity are required for calculating variations in the environment with regard to spacecraft charging, radiation effects, and orbital lifetime. Correlations appear to exist between the time of solar activity and the time of operational anomalies due to electrical discharges when the dielectric surfaces of geosynchronous spacecraft are charged by interaction with the ambient plasma to levels above breakdown voltage. An ability to predict the solar induced variation variability of the plasmas could permit refinement of design criteria. The influence of the radiation on spacecraft materials, systems, and manned operations is summarized. Solar radition effects on the orbital altitude atmospheric density environment and spacecraft lifetimes are also considered.

Johnson, W. G.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Helium in the Martian atmosphere - Thermal loss considerations

Helium concentrations in the Martian atmosphere are estimated assuming that the helium production on Mars (comparable to its production on earth) via the radioactive decay of uranium and thorium is in steady state equilibrium with its thermal escape. Although nonthermal losses would tend to reduce the estimated concentrations, these concentrations are not necessarily an upper limit since higher production rates and/or a possibly lower effective exospheric temperature over the solar activity cycle could increase them to even higher values. The computed helium concentration at the Martian exobase (200 km) is 8 million atoms/cu cm. Through the lower exosphere, the computed helium concentrations are 30-200 times greater than the Mariner-measured atomic hydrogen concentrations. It follows that helium may be the predominant constituent in the Martian lower exosphere and may well control the orbital lifetime of Mars-orbiting spacecraft.

Levine, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A consideration of atomic oxygen interactions with space station

A computer model is developed in order to calculate fluence for a generalized spacecraft in orbital flight based on mass spectrometer and incoherent scatter (MSIS) measurements of ambient density. The calculations are used to identify criteria for the selection of materials for the construction of an LEO Space Station. The model is generalized such that the surfaces for study can be oriented in any direction with respect to: a body coordinate system fixed to the spacecraft (E surfaces); and a solar inertial coordinate system. A parametric study was performed in order to evaluate the effects of altitude, inclination, and solar activity on atomic oxygen fluence. Values are obtained for samples of Mylar, Kevlar, Kapton, Tedlar, Teflon and sulfone, as well as for some ethylene polymers. The range of values for material reactivities is from 360 microns for ram-facing surfaces to 200 microns for solar power surfaces during each cycle of solar activity. The possibility of improving reactivity by employing certain chemical coatings is also discussed.

Leger, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Modelling of ionospheric temperature profiles

Ionosphere electron temperature data gathered by the AE-C, AEROS, Isis-1 and -2 spacecraft are employed to define linear models for the average conditions. Account is taken of evidence for seasonal, altitudinal, solar activity and density-temperature effects. Notably, use is made of the high negative correlations between the electron temperature and density, thereby allowing either to be calculated if data are available on the density.

Bilitza, D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A New Way that Planets can Affect the Sun

As planets orbit the Sun, the Sun also has to move to keep the total momentum of the solar system constant. The Sun's small orbital motion plus its 25 day rotation about its axis combine to invigorate some solar instabilities. Occasional convection cells at the proper phase in their short life can be strengthened by factors of two or more. This local burst of extra kinetic energy eventually reaches the surface where it can increase the intensity of solar activity. It might explain some reports in the last century of how planetary positions correlate with solar activity. This is the first effect of planets that is large enough to cause a significant response on the Sun.

Wolff, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Techniques of orbital decay and long-term ephemeris prediction for satellites in earth orbit

In the special perturbation method, Cowell and variation-of-parameters formulations of the motion equations are implemented and numerically integrated. Variations in the orbital elements due to drag are computed using the 1970 Jacchia atmospheric density model, which includes the effects of semiannual variations, diurnal bulge, solar activity, and geomagnetic activity. In the general perturbation method, two-variable asymptotic series and automated manipulation capabilities are used to obtain analytical solutions to the variation-of-parameters equations. Solutions are obtained considering the effect of oblateness only and the combined effects of oblateness and drag. These solutions are then numerically evaluated by means of a FORTRAN program in which an updating scheme is used to maintain accurate epoch values of the elements. The atmospheric density function is approximated by a Fourier series in true anomaly, and the 1970 Jacchia model is used to periodically update the Fourier coefficients. The accuracy of both methods is demonstrated by comparing computed orbital elements to actual elements over time spans of up to 8 days for the special perturbation method and up to 356 days for the general perturbation method.

Barry, B. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Radiative and reconnection instabilities - Compressible and viscous effects

Filaments and flares are prominent indicators of the magnetic fields of solar activity. These instability phenomena arise from the influence of weak transport effects (radiation and resistivity, respectively) on coronal magnetodynamics and energy flow. It has been shown that the filament and flare (tearing or reconnection) mechanisms are resistively coupled in sheared magnetic fields of the kind existing in active regions. The present paper expands this treatment to include the effects of compressibility and viscosity, which are most prominent at short wavelengths. The results show that compressibility affects the radiative mode, including a modest increase of its growth rate, and that viscosity modifies the tearing mode, partially through a decrease of its growth rate. A comprehensive discussion of the mode structures and flows is presented. The strongest effect found is a reversal, at very long wavelengths, of the radiative cooling of the resistive interior layer of the tearing mode, caused by compressional heating.

Tachi, T.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Model Of Orbital Density Of Air For Computing Drag

Simple, Orbital Density Model for Drag Equations program useful for computing effect of drag over one or more orbits. Mathematical model embodied in program incorporates major changes in density due to solar activity and magnetic activity of Earth. Diurnal (day/night) effects on orbit averaged out. Based on Jacchia daily-average density, evaluated at average time of year. Advantages, right ascension and declination of Sun not needed and computation time much reduced. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Lear, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗