Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Scenario”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Critically assessing sodium-ion technology roadmaps and scenarios for techno-economic competitiveness against lithium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion batteries have garnered notable attention as a potentially low-cost alternative to lithium-ion batteries, which have experienced supply shortages and price volatility for key minerals. Here we assess their techno-economic competitiveness against incumbent lithium-ion batteries using a modelling framework incorporating componential learning curves constrained by minerals prices and engineering design floors. We compare projected sodium-ion and lithium-ion price trends across over 6,000 scenarios while varying Na-ion technology development roadmaps, supply chain scenarios, market penetration and learning rates. Assuming that substantial progress can be made along technology roadmaps via targeted research and development, we identify several sodium-ion pathways that might reach cost-competitiveness with low-cost lithium-ion variants in the 2030s. In addition, we show that timelines are highly sensitive to movements in critical minerals supply chains—namely that of lithium, graphite and nickel. Our modelled outcomes suggest that being price advantageous against low-cost lithium-ion variants in the near term is challenging and increasing sodium-ion energy densities to decrease materials intensity is among the most impactful ways to improve competitiveness.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expanded Accident Scenarios and Frequency Characteristics for a Fast Spectrum Molten Salt Reactor in an Integrated Energy System

Integration of advanced nuclear reactors to industrial processes in an integrated energy system (IES) has many potential advantages. The coupling of nuclear power to varied industrial processes introduces additional accident scenarios unique to the specific systems included in the IES. Similarly, noise in one system of the IES could potentially create negative effects in the other systems. Because of the limited amount of comparable nuclear IES operating experience, there is added value in scoping the inherent behavior of these systems in response to these transients. Here, this paper investigates the safety-related behavior of an open-source IES dynamic model of a fast spectrum molten salt reactor (MSR) powering a regenerative Rankine cycle for electricity production and a hybrid sulfur (HyS) cycle for hydrogen production. The simulations include a loss of cooling water to the Rankine cycle, a loss of sulfur in the HyS cycle, and the frequency characteristics of the entire IES across six orders of magnitude of frequency. The results show safe behavior in response to the two accident scenarios, wherein a disruption in heat transfer leads to increased salt temperatures and a decrease in reactor power. The frequency analysis shows that at higher frequencies, temperature changes propagating through an IES are increasingly damped to the point of negligibility.

Dunkle, Nicholas [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, T↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low- n stability and plasma response to RMP in various STEP scenarios

The low-n (n is the toroidal mode number) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and plasma response are numerically investigated for various scenarios designed for STEP, that are relevant for the H-mode pedestal analysis. Control of the edge-localized modes (ELMs) with externally applied resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) is considered. Optimization of the ELM control coil current configuration, based on the computed plasma MHD response and well-established figures of merit validated on present-day experiments, finds reasonable robustness of a fixed coil phasing (for a given n-number) to control ELMs in all five STEP plasmas considered. Based on certain semi-empirical criteria, the required coil current to achieve ELM suppression is estimated to be about 10–20 kAt with the n = 1 or 2 RMP configuration and about 100–200 kAt for the n = 4 RMP. Systematic linear stability calculations are used to map out stability windows for the low-n kink-peeling modes, in terms of the ideal-wall location and variation of the edge safety factor q 95 with respect to the target design. The kink-peeling stability boundary is found to be generally sensitive to the q 95 variation, which has implications for achieving the quiescent H-mode regime in STEP. Full toroidal quasilinear initial-value simulations for these STEP plasmas find that generation of the edge-harmonic oscillations (EHOs) depends sensitively on the plasma scenario, the initial linear stability of the kink-peeling modes, the initial plasma toroidal flow and q 95 . In general, it is easier (more robust) to access the EHO-regime for two of the cases considered with smaller plasma volume and higher on-axis safety factor. Finally, quasilinear simulations find robust density pumpout due to applied RMPs in these STEP plasmas, but the effect on the plasma toroidal flow varies among different cases.

EHO↗
DOE OSTI2024

The root cause of disruptive NTMs and paths to stable operation in DIII-D ITER baseline scenario plasmas

Analyses of the DIII-D ITER Baseline Scenario database support that the disruptive m,n=2,1 magnetic islands are pressure gradient driven, non-linear instabilities seeded in a sequence of stochastic transient magnetic perturbations, and that the current profile relaxation does not affect the m,n=2,1 island onset rate. At low torque, these Neoclassical Tearing Modes are most commonly seeded by non-linear 3-wave coupling when the differential rotation between the q=1 & q=2 rational surfaces approaches zero. Lack of statistically significant difference between the current profiles of stable and unstable states, as well as lack of correlation between the tearing mode onset rate and the current profile relaxation both reject causality between the current profile evolution and the 2,1 magnetic island onsets in these plasmas. These support that preserving the differential rotation between the q=1 and q=2 rational surfaces is key to long pulse stable operation in the plasma scenario planned for ITER, while optimization of the current profile within the explored parameter space may lead to much weaker improvements than sustaining the differential rotation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Radiation-front position control with scenario adjustments during the first tungsten divertor operation on KSTAR

This study reports the first experimental demonstration of a radiation front-based detachment control system during the initial tungsten divertor campaign in KSTAR. The system employs real-time infrared video bolometry with tomographic reconstruction to track the inboard radiation-front position, which served as a feedback variable for impurity seeding. In a baseline scenario without pre-D 2 fueling, tungsten accumulation triggered core radiation surges and repetitive H–L back transitions. In contrast, with pre-D 2 fueling, detachment was stabilized by maintaining higher edge-localized mode frequency, suppressing core tungsten buildup, and reducing sputtering, thereby enabling sustained feedback control. The suitability of the inboard front position as a detachment control metric was confirmed by its correlation with the degree of detachment: with D 2 fueling the relation exhibited a broad hysteresis loop characteristic of momentum-loss-dominated detachment, whereas with N 2 fueling, it became narrow and nearly vertical, consistent with radiation-loss-dominated pinning. These results provide a proof-of-principle for radiation-front-based detachment control, demonstrating its viability as a control approach. At the same time, these results clarify that the detachment outcomes were further conditioned by impurity transport characteristics of tungsten divertor operation in KSTAR, providing guidance for future scenario optimization and controller development in tungsten devices.

KSTAR↗
DOE OSTI2026

Current ramp-up studies for NSTX-U in support of the development of non-inductive current ramp-up scenarios in STs

The Spherical Tokamak (ST) is a low-aspect-ratio tokamak projected to enable simultaneous operation at high normalized toroidal beta and high bootstrap current fraction. However, a compact ST reactor cannot be built with a full-sized solenoid. The remaining current required for sustained operation must be ramped up non-inductively. Sustained 100% non-inductive current drive at the MA level has not yet been demonstrated on an ST. Non-inductive current ramp-up is therefore a more challenging objective that the NSTX-U research program aims to address. In support of this development, free-boundary TRANSP simulations have been used to develop a current ramp-up scenario in which a significant fraction of the current is driven non-inductively by a combination of neutral-beam and bootstrap current drive. The resulting discharge has properties favorable for non-inductive current drive, such as a low normalized internal plasma inductance of approximately 0.45, a minimum safety factor exceeding 2, and a slightly reversed-shear q-profile. In these discharges, the plasma current ramps to 900 kA within 250 ms in an L-mode configuration, with varying electron density and density profiles. These discharges should be suitable for next-step NSTX-U experiments aimed at generating a robust L-mode fiducial scenario with low central solenoid flux consumption, which could be progressively improved as new NSTX-U experimental discharges are developed.

Raman, Roger [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biochar as a carbon dioxide removal strategy in integrated long-run mitigation scenarios

Abstract Limiting global warming to under 2 °C would require stringent mitigation and likely additional carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to compensate for otherwise unabated emissions. Because of its technology readiness, relatively low cost, and potential co-benefits, the application of biochar to soils could be an effective CDR strategy. We use the Global Change Analysis Model, a global multisector model, to analyze biochar deployment in the context of energy system uses of biomass with CDR under different carbon price trajectories. We find that biochar can create an annual sink of up to 2.8 GtCO 2 per year, reducing global mean temperature increases by an additional 0.5%–1.8% across scenarios by 2100 for a given carbon price path. In our scenarios, biochar’s deployment is dependent on potential crop yield gains and application rates, and the competition for resources with other CDR measures. We find that biochar can serve as a competitive CDR strategy, especially at lower carbon prices when bioenergy with carbon capture and storage is not yet economical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pathways of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry with implications for the overall transportation and energy sectors: an integrated, multi-sectoral analysis of future scenarios

Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of refined fossil liquid fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. This study models alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. Three bio-jet production and consumption pathways are presented- soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet (ETJ) and Fisher–Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and renewable gasoline alongside the bio-jet. Without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase by mid-century) and lower demand (ranging from −14% to −43%). Corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices. While scenarios with high levels of bio-jet availability without the availability of ETJ in the US can significantly reduce emissions in the aviation sector, these reductions are achieved more through the reduction in overall aviation fuel demand rather than technology adoption.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synchrotron self-Compton in a radiative-adiabatic fireball scenario: modelling the multiwavelength observations in some Fermi /LAT bursts

Energetic GeV photons expected from the closest and the most energetic Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) provide a unique opportunity to study the very-high-energy emission as well as the possible correlations with lower energy bands in realistic GRB afterglow models. In the standard GRB afterglow model, the relativistic homogeneous shock is usually considered to be fully adiabatic, however, it could be partially radiative. Based on the external forward-shock scenario in both stellar wind and constant-density medium, we present a radiative-adiabatic analytical model of the synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) and synchrotron processes considering an electron energy distribution with a power-law index of $1\lt p\lt 2$ and $2\le p$. We show that the SSC scenario plays a relevant role in the radiative parameter $\epsilon$, leading to a prolonged evolution during the slow cooling regime. In a particular case, we derive the Fermi/LAT light curves together with the photons with energies $\ge 100$ MeV in a sample of nine bursts from the second Fermi/LAT GRB catalogue that exhibited temporal and spectral indices with $\gtrsim 1.5$ and $\approx 2$, respectively. These events can hardly be described with closure relations of the standard synchrotron afterglow model, and also exhibit energetic photons above the synchrotron limit. We have modelled the multiwavelength observations of our sample to constrain the microphysical parameters, the circumburst density, the bulk Lorentz factor, and the mechanism responsible for explaining the energetic GeV photons.

acceleration of particles↗
DOE OSTI2024

Examining a hadronic γ-ray scenario for the radiative shell and molecular clouds of the old GeV supernova remnant G298.6−0.0

Abstract Based on the 13.7 yr Fermi-LAT data, Yeung, Bamba, and Sano (2023, PASJ, 75, 384) claimed detection of two γ-ray sources (namely Src-NE and Src-NW) associated with the supernova remnant (SNR) G298.6−0.0, and interpreted it as an old GeV SNR interacting with molecular clouds (MCs). In this follow-up study, we refine the flux measurements below 2 GeV with Fermi-LAT event types of better angular reconstruction. Then, we report our γ-ray spectral fittings and cosmic-ray phenomenology in a hadronic scenario, considering both the shell and MC regions of SNR G298.6−0.0. We confirm that the γ-ray spectra of both Src-NE and Src-NW exhibit spectral breaks, at $1.50_{-0.50}^{+0.60}$ and $0.68_{-0.11}^{+0.32}\:$GeV, respectively. Src-NW has a harder broad-band photon index than Src-NE, suggesting an appreciable difference between the physical separations of their respective emission sites from SNR G298.6−0.0. The cosmic-ray spectrum responsible for Src-NE starts with a minimum energy $E_\mathrm{CR,min}=1.38_{-0.16}^{+0.47}\:$GeV, and has a proton index $\Gamma _\mathrm{CR}=2.57_{-0.21}^{+0.18}$ below the exponential cutoff energy $E_\mathrm{CR,max}=240_{-150}^{+240}\:$GeV. Accordingly, we argue that Src-NE is dominated by the SNR shell, while only a minor portion of lower-energy emission is contributed by the MCs interacting with the SNR. The cosmic-ray population for Src-NW starts at a higher energy such that the ECR, min ratio of Src-NW to Src-NE is ≳2. The high ECR, min, as well as the high cosmic-ray energy density required (∼26 eV cm−3), supports the interpretation that Src-NW is predominantly the γ-ray emission from the farther MCs being bombarded by protons that had earlier escaped from SNR G298.6−0.0. By comparing the high-energy features of G298.6−0.0 with those of analogical SNRs, especially SNR W 28 and SNR W 44, we further constrain the age of SNR G298.6−0.0 to be 10–30 kyr, under the assumption of a purely hadronic scenario.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distinguishing Charged Lepton Flavor Violation Scenarios with Inelastic 𝜇 → 𝑒 Conversion

The Mu2e and COMET experiments are expected to improve existing limits on charged lepton flavor violation (CLFV) by roughly 4 orders of magnitude. 𝜇 → 𝑒 conversion experiments are typically optimized for electrons produced without nuclear excitation, as this maximizes the electron energy and minimizes backgrounds from the free decay of the muon. Here we argue that Mu2e and COMET will be able to extract additional constraints on CLFV from inelastic 𝜇 → 𝑒 conversion, given the 27 Al target they have chosen and backgrounds they anticipate. We describe CLFV scenarios in which inelastic CLFV can induce measurable distortions in the near-endpoint spectrum of conversion electrons, including cases where certain contributing operators cannot be probed in elastic 𝜇 → 𝑒 conversion. We extend the nonrelativistic EFT treatment of elastic 𝜇 → 𝑒 conversion to include the new nuclear operators needed for the inelastic process, evaluate the associated nuclear response functions, and describe several new-physics scenarios where the inelastic process can provide additional information on CLFV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization-Based Model Reduction Scheme for Renewable Energy Power Plants Using Standardized Testing Scenarios

This paper presents an optimization-based model reduction scheme for renewable energy (RE) power plants consisting of inverter-based resources (IBRs) operating in grid-following (GFL) or grid-forming (GFM) modes. More importantly, the datasets feeding the optimization-based model reduction scheme are generated and re-used through the standardized grid-interactive testing scenarios. Particularly, the proposed scheme makes use of the power plant point of common coupling (PCC) measurements of various quantities specified by standardized tests (e.g., voltage and frequency ride through) as per IEEE 2800, to estimate the parameters of the reduced-order model such that its dynamic performance aligns with the original detailed power plant model. The proposed model reduction approach does not require the parameters of individual IBRs and using standardized test data as input to the formulated optimization problem simplifies the reduced-order modelling scheme. Extensive case studies following standardized test scenarios verified the remarkable accuracy of the proposed approach.

Yallamilli, Ram S. [Purdue University]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clustering Interval Load with Weather to Create Scenarios of Behind-the-Meter Solar Penetration

Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work proposes a methodology for creation of scenarios of solar penetration at the feeder level for use by forecasters to test the robustness of their algorithm to progressively higher penetrations of solar. The algorithm draws on publicly available observations of weather condition (e.g., rainy/cloudy/fair) for use as proxies to sky clearness. These observations are used to mask and weight the interval deviations of similar native usage profiles from which average interval usage is calculated and subsequently added to interval net generation to reconstruct interval total generation. This approach improves the estimate of annual energy generation by 23%; where the net generation signal currently reflects 52% of total annual gener- ation, now 75% is captured. This methodology for creation of forecast testing scenarios is data driven and extensible to service territories which lack information on irradiance measurements and geocoordinates.

solar, load↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatial inequities in access to medications for treatment of opioid use disorder highlight scarcity of methadone providers under counterfactual scenarios

Access to treatment and medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) is essential in reducing opioid use and associated behavioral risks, such as syringe sharing among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Syringe sharing among PWID carries high risk of transmission of serious infections such as hepatitis C and HIV. MOUD resources, such as methadone provider clinics, however, are often unavailable to PWID due to barriers like long travel distance to the nearest methadone provider and the required frequency of clinic visits. The goal of this study is to examine the uncertainty in the effects of travel distance in initiating and continuing methadone treatment and how these interact with different spatial distributions of methadone providers to impact co-injection (syringe sharing) risks. A baseline scenario of spatial access was established using the existing locations of methadone providers in a geographical area of metropolitan Chicago, Illinois, USA. Next, different counterfactual scenarios redistributed the locations of methadone providers in this geographic area according to the densities of both the general adult population and according to the PWID population per zip code. We define different reasonable methadone access assumptions as the combinations of short, medium, and long travel distance preferences combined with three urban/suburban travel distance preference. Our modeling results show that when there is a low travel distance preference for accessing methadone providers, distributing providers near areas that have the greatest need (defined by density of PWID) is best at reducing syringe sharing behaviors. However, this strategy also decreases access across suburban locales, posing even greater difficulty in regions with fewer transit options and providers. As such, without an adequate number of providers to give equitable coverage across the region, spatial distribution cannot be optimized to provide equitable access to all PWID. Our study has important implications for increasing interest in methadone as a resurgent treatment for MOUD in the United States and for guiding policy toward improving access to MOUD among PWID.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

GSE Yearly Load Profiles for Each Airport Under Six Charging Scenarios

This dataset contains GSE yearly load profiles for each airport under six charging scenarios: (1) charging when the battery state of charge is insufficient for the next service using 40-kW chargers (S1); (2) charging when the battery state of charge is insufficient for the next service using 20-kW chargers (S2); (3) charging starts immediately after each GSE completes a service task using 40-kW chargers (S3); (4) charging starts immediately after each GSE completes a service task using 20-kW chargers (S4); (5) charging during off-peak hours using 40-kW chargers (S5); and (6) charging during off-peak hours using 20-kW chargers (S6). ![image](gse_load_profile_sample_day.png) GSE load profile of a sample day across different airport categories under charging scenario 1.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Analysis of Nuclear-Powered Data Center Scenarios

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for nuclear energy to meet the growing energy demands of data centers (DCs). It evaluates the technical, economic, and socio-environmental implications of coupling Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) with DCs, providing initial responses to several key research questions: What is the potential increased energy demand from DCs in the U.S., in the short, medium and long term? The U.S. is experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand from DCs, with projections indicating a total increase of 24-74 GWy(e) by 2028. Meeting this demand with nuclear energy would require 27–85 GWe of installed capacity. While this surge is expected to slow in the long term, the DC industry needs reliable, scalable, and clean energy sources. How much nuclear capacity can be deployed to meet DC demand and in which timeframe? Several pathways for increasing nuclear capacity were identified, including uprates, restarts of recently retired reactors, power purchase agreements with existing fleet, and new construction. Approximately 20‒28 GWe of nuclear capacity could be dedicated to DCs by the early 2030s. How much High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) would be needed to support some nuclear deployment scenarios for DCs? Meeting the deployment targets announced by Google and Amazon for the Kairos Power Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor or KP-FHR (~500 MWe by 2035) and the Xe-100 (~1 GWe by 2040), respectively, requires ramping up 19.75% enriched HALEU production to ~6 t/yr by 2040. What types of nuclear energy/DC coupling options exist, and what are the different benefits/challenges? Five coupling options were analyzed, ranging from grid-connected configurations to colocated, behind-the-meter setups. Key design considerations include the proximity to high- and/or medium-voltage transmission lines, the desired internal fault tolerance, and the sources of alternative/backup power during outages. Each coupling option offers unique benefits and challenges in terms of reliability, system costs, regulation, timeline, etc. A list of NPP/DC deployment scenarios was developed, considering existing or newly built NPP or DC projects. Colocated DCs with new small modular reactors or large reactors on greenfield and brownfield sites are the focus of this report. What types of reactors, especially what size, may be incentivized by DCs? Reactor sizing optimization revealed that the ideal reactor size and number of units depend on DC demand, coupling configurations defined in this report, and other economic factors. Larger reactors are preferred for high-demand DCs and grid-connected systems, while larger number of smaller reactors are better suited for DC configurations without grid backup. Which sites may be compatible with co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Siting those projects is a complicated evaluation factoring local water resources, grid connection availability and reliability, IT infrastructure, local work force, proximity to population zones, etc. For this effort greenfield and brownfield sites such as retired coal-fired plants were used to evaluate this question. This evaluation is not meant to recommend any particular site but it highlights key siting criteria and demonstrates large-scale site availability. What are the socio-economic impacts of co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Those projects generate substantial economic benefits to the local economy, particularly in urban settings. Hyperscale DCs colocated with nuclear power plants (sized around 1 GW of power) can create nearly 1,700 jobs for annual operations and more than 7,300 jobs among the supply chain and local businesses as a result of increased household spending. Rural projects also provide significant benefits, but at lower magnitudes compared to urban deployments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1980

NASA TLA workload analysis support. Volume 1: Detailed task scenarios for general aviation and metering and spacing studies

The techniques required to produce and validate six detailed task timeline scenarios for crew workload studies are described. Specific emphasis is given to: general aviation single pilot instrument flight rules operations in a high density traffic area; fixed path metering and spacing operations; and comparative workload operation between the forward and aft-flight decks of the NASA terminal control vehicle. The validation efforts also provide a cursory examination of the resultant demand workload based on the operating procedures depicted in the detailed task scenarios.

Sundstrom, J. L.↗