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A Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model of the Global Oceans: Seasonal Distributions of Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability. and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms. chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (greater than 1000 km) model chlorophyll results are in overall agreement with CZCS pigments in many global regions. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are generally in conformance although occasional departures are apparent. Model nitrate distributions agree with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent many aspects of the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Ice Sheet Surface Elevation at the Summit of Greenland: Observed and Modeled

Observed seasonal and interannual variations in the surface elevation over the summit of the Greenland ice sheet are modeled using a new temperature-dependent formulation of firn-densification and observed accumulation variations. The observed elevation variations are derived from ERS (European Remote Sensing)-1 and ERS-2 radar altimeter data for the period between April 1992 and April 1999. A multivariate linear/sine function is fitted to an elevation time series constructed from elevation differences measured by radar altimetry at orbital crossovers. The amplitude of the seasonal elevation cycle is 0.25 m peak-to-peak, with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. Inter-annually, the elevation decreases to a minimum in 1995, followed by an increase to 1999, with an overall average increase of 4.2 cm a(exp -1) for 1992 to 1999. Our densification formulation uses an initial field-density profile, the AWS (automatic weather station) surface temperature record, and a temperature-dependent constitutive relation for the densification that is based on laboratory measurements of crystal growth rates. The rate constant and the activation energy commonly used in the Arrhenius-type constitutive relation for firn densification are also temperature dependent, giving a stronger temperature and seasonal amplitudes about 10 times greater than previous densification formulations. Summer temperatures are most important, because of the strong non-linear dependence on temperature. Much of firn densification and consequent surface lowering occurs within about three months of the summer season, followed by a surface build-up from snow accumulation until spring. Modeled interannual changes of the surface elevation, using the AWS measurements of surface temperature and accumulation and results of atmospheric modeling of precipitation variations, are in good agreement with the altimeter observations. In the model, the surface elevation decreases about 20 cm over the seven years due to more compaction driven by increasing summer temperatures. The minimum elevation in 1995 is driven mainly by a temporary accumulation decrease and secondarily by warmer temperatures. However, the overall elevation increase over the seven years is dominated by the accumulation increase in the later years.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

Summer of Seasons Workshop Program for Emerging Educators in Earth System Science

Norfolk State University BEST Lab successfully hosted three Summer of Seasons programs from 1998-2001. The Summer of Seasons program combined activities during the summer with additional seminars and workshops to provide broad outreach in the number of students and teachers who participated. Lessons learned from the each of the first two years of this project were incorporated into the design of the final year's activities. The "Summer of Seasons" workshop program provided emerging educators with the familiarity and knowledge to utilize in the classroom curriculum materials developed through NASA sponsorship on Earth System Science. A special emphasis was placed on the use of advanced technologies to dispel the commonly held misconceptions regarding seasonal, climactic and global change phenomena.

Chaudhury, S. Raj↗

The Transport and Fate of Particulate Material in a Shallow, Turbid Estuary: Seasonal and Decadal Characteristics from 7-Be and 210-Pb Techniques

Seasonal and long-term sediment transport characteristics were examined using surficial sediment 7-Be inventories and the down core distribution of excess 210-Pb. Data were collected in the Barataria Basin, LA over the fifteen month period from September 1995 to January 1997. Seasonal sediment transport rates based on 7-Be inventories ranged from -1.6E3 to 1.42E4 g/m2/yr, whereas decadal sediment burial rates based on excess 210-Pb ranged from 3.83E2 to 2.00E3 g/m2/yr, respectively. Seasonal transport characteristics vary with location in the basin and appear to be largely controlled by seasonal weather patterns and the associated winds. It appears that, at less sheltered locations, long term rates of sediment burial are controlled by frontal passages and the associated strong northerly and southerly component winds; whereas at fetch limited locations burial rates are likely controlled by stronger weather events such as tropical storms and hurricanes.

Booth, J. G.↗

Transport Pathways for Asian Pollution Outflow Over the Pacific: Interannual and Seasonal Variations

The meteorological pathways contributing to Asian pollution outflow over the Pacific are examined with a global three-dimensional model analysis of CO observations from the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission (February-April 2001). The model is used also to place the TRACE-P observations in an interannual (1994-2001) and seasonal context. The major process driving Asian pollution outflow in spring is frontal lifting ahead of southeastward-moving cold fronts (the leading edge of cold surges) and transport in the boundary layer behind the cold fronts. Orographic lifting over central and eastern China combines with the cold fronts to promote the transport of Chinese pollution to the free troposphere. Outflow of seasonal biomass burning in Southeast Asia during spring takes place mostly by deep convection but also by northeastward transport and frontal lifting, mixing with the anthropogenic outflow. Boundary layer outflow over the western Pacific is largely devoid of biomass burning influence. European and African (biomass burning) plumes in Asian outflow during TRACE-P were weak (less than 60 ppbv and 20 ppbv CO, respectively) and were not detectable in the observations because of superposition of the much larger Asian pollution signal. Spring 2001 (La Nina) was characterized by unusually frequent cold surge events in the Asian Pacific rim and strong convection in Southeast Asia, leading to unusually strong boundary layer outflow of anthropogenic emissions and convective outflow of biomass burning emissions in the upper troposphere. The Asian outflow flux of CO to the Pacific is found to vary seasonally by a factor of 3-4 (maximum in March and minimum in summer). The March maximum results from frequent cold surge events and seasonal biomass burning emissions.

Liu, Hong-Yu↗

Investigation of the Seasonal Freeze/Thaw Cycle of Soils in the GAPP Regions

The objective of this project is to understand the current and future impacts and feedbacks of seasonally frozen ground on the regional and global climate system and the ecosystem as a whole. More specifically, we proposed to: investigate the dynamics of the seasonally freezing and thawing processes and their relations to current climatic conditions through in situ data analysis and numerical modeling; develop a comprehensive algorithm to detect surface soil freeze/thaw status for snow-free land surface using passive microwave remote sensing data and for snow-covered land surface using numerical modeling, and validate the algorithm and numerical model using available ground-based measurements; investigate seasonal and inter-annual variations of frozen soils in the GAPP regions using data generated from the new validated algorithm and their relations to the environmental factors such as air temperature, snow cover, surface morphology, soil type and soil moisture; generate a frozen soil data set which describes the timing, duration, thickness, and area extent of seasonally frozen ground for the period from 1978 to present. The proposed research will be accomplished through data analysis, remote sensing, and numerical modeling.

FREEZE-THAW TESTS↗

Two Successive Martian Years on the Orbit: Similarities and Differences of CO2 Seasonal Cycle from HEND/ODYSSEY Data

The three years of Mars Odyssey successful work on the martian orbit provide a lot of new information about peculiarities of long term variations of CO2 seasonal cycle. To start such analysis we have used observations of neutron albedo of Mars obtained by High Energy Neutron detector (HEND) mounted onboard Mars Odyssey spacecraft. The high latitude northern and southern regions of Mars are affected by global redistribution of atmospheric CO2 which resulted in 25% of atmospheric mass condensed on martian surface of these regions during winter period of time. The seasonal deposit is formed starting from 60N/60S latitudes and achieve its maximal thickness about 1 m at latitudes close to martian poles. Changes of CO2 deposit thickness is the reason for significant variations of neutron flux above martian poles from summer to winter seasons because CO2 frost effectively hides upper water rich surface layers from the orbit observations in neutrons and gamma-rays. This effect was used to estimate column density of CO2 deposit at different latitudes on North and South of Mars and reconstruct multidimensional model of CO2 deposit showing how snow depth varies as function of latitude, longitude and time. In this presentation we tried to make a next step in our study of martian seasonal CO2 cycle and look for similarities and differences between two successive martian years.

Litvak, M. L.↗

Spaceborne microwave remote sensing of seasonal freeze-thaw processes in theterrestrial high l atitudes : relationships with land-atmosphere CO2 exchange

Landscape transitions between seasonally frozen and thawed conditions occur each year over roughly 50 million square kilometers of Earth's Northern Hemisphere. These relatively abrupt transitions represent the closest analog to a biospheric and hydrologic on/off switch existing in nature, affecting surface meteorological conditions, ecological trace gas dynamics, energy exchange and hydrologic activity profoundly. We utilize time series satellite-borne microwave remote sensing measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to examine spatial and temporal variability in seasonal freeze/thaw cycles for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska. Regional measurements of spring thaw timing are derived using daily brightness temperature measurements from the 19 GHz, horizontally polarized channel, separately for overpasses with 6 AM and 6 PM equatorial crossing times. Spatial and temporal patterns in regional freeze/thaw dynamics show distinct differences between North America and Eurasia, and boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. Annual anomalies in the timing of thawing in spring also correspond closely to seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies derived from NOAA CMDL arctic and subarctic monitoring stations. Classification differences between AM and PM overpass data average approximately 5 days for the region, though both appear to be effective surrogates for monitoring annual growing seasons at high latitudes.

Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I)carbon cycle↗

Determination of Spring Onset and Growing Season Duration using Satellite Measurements

An integrated approach to retrieve microwave emissivity difference vegetation index (EDVI) over land regions has been developed from combined multi-platform/multi-sensor satellite measurements, including SSM/I measurements. A possible relationship of the remotely sensed EDVI and the leaf physiology of canopy is exploited at the Harvard Forest site for two growing seasons. This study finds that the EDVI is sensitive to leaf development through vegetation water content of the crown layer of the forest canopy, and has demonstrated that the spring onset and growing season duration can be determined accurately from the time series of satellite estimated EDVI within uncertainties about 3 and 7 days for spring onsets and growing season duration, respectively, compared to in-situ observations. The leaf growing stage may also be quantitatively monitored by a normalized EDVI. Since EDVI retrievals from satellite are generally possible during both daytime and nighttime under non-rain conditions, the EDVI technique studied here may provide higher temporal resolution observations for monitoring the onset of spring and the duration of growing season compared to currently operational satellite methods.

Min, Q.↗

Dynamic and Regression Modeling of Ocean Variability in the Tide-Gauge Record at Seasonal and Longer Periods

Comparison of monthly mean tide-gauge time series to corresponding model time series based on a static inverted barometer (IB) for pressure-driven fluctuations and a ocean general circulation model (OM) reveals that the combined model successfully reproduces seasonal and interannual changes in relative sea level at many stations. Removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge record produces residual time series with a mean global variance reduction of 53%. The OM is mis-scaled for certain regions, and 68% of the residual time series contain a significant seasonal variability after removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge data. Including OM admittance parameters and seasonal coefficients in a regression model for each station, with IB also removed, produces residual time series with mean global variance reduction of 71%. Examination of the regional improvement in variance caused by scaling the OM, including seasonal terms, or both, indicates weakness in the model at predicting sea-level variation for constricted ocean regions. The model is particularly effective at reproducing sea-level variation for stations in North America, Europe, and Japan. The RMS residual for many stations in these areas is 25-35 mm. The production of "cleaner" tide-gauge time series, with oceanographic variability removed, is important for future analysis of nonsecular and regionally differing sea-level variations. Understanding the ocean model's strengths and weaknesses will allow for future improvements of the model.

Hill, Emma M.↗

Quantifying the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of North American Isoprene Emissions Using Satellite Observations of the Formaldehyde Column

Quantifying isoprene emissions using satellite observations of the formaldehyde (HCHO) columns is subject to errors involving the column retrieval and the assumed relationship between HCHO columns and isoprene emissions, taken here from the GEOS-CHEM chemical transport model. Here we use a 6-year (1996-2001) HCHO column data set from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite instrument to (1) quantify these errors, (2) evaluate GOME-derived isoprene emissions with in situ flux measurements and a process-based emission inventory (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN), and (3) investigate the factors driving the seasonal and interannual variability of North American isoprene emissions. The error in the GOME HCHO column retrieval is estimated to be 40%. We use the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) to quantify the time-dependent HCHO production from isoprene, alpha- and beta-pinenes, and methylbutenol and show that only emissions of isoprene are detectable by GOME. The time-dependent HCHO yield from isoprene oxidation calculated by MCM is 20-30% larger than in GEOS-CHEM. GOME-derived isoprene fluxes track the observed seasonal variation of in situ measurements at a Michigan forest site with a -30% bias. The seasonal variation of North American isoprene emissions during 2001 inferred from GOME is similar to MEGAN, with GOME emissions typically 25% higher (lower) at the beginning (end) of the growing season. GOME and MEGAN both show a maximum over the southeastern United States, but they differ in the precise location. The observed interannual variability of this maximum is 20-30%, depending on month. The MEGAN isoprene emission dependence on surface air temperature explains 75% of the month-to-month variability in GOME-derived isoprene emissions over the southeastern United States during May-September 1996-2001.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

The Seasonal Response of Titan's Troposphere and Stratosphere

The radiative response of Titan's atmosphere varies by several orders of magnitude with altitude. This presents an interesting situation in which most of the stratosphere----at least that part above 100km is characterized by radiative relaxation times that are short compared to the length of a Titan season, and the troposphere and tropopause region by times that are larger than seasonal timescales. Consistent with this, Cassini CIRS spectra indicate stratospheric temperatures at 100-170 kin that are 20-30 K cooler at high northern latitudes in winter than those at equatorial and southern latitudes. Given the expectation that the situation will largely reverse in southern winter, the observed large meridional contrast is likely indicative of the expected seasonal variation at polar latitudes in both hemispheres. CIRS spectra do not as easily yield temperatures below 100 km in the lower stratosphere and tropopause region, because of the contribution of heterogeneously distributed aerosols and condensates to the infrared opacity. However, Cassini radio occultations probe both the stratosphere and troposphere, and below 80 km they show the thermal contrast with latitude to be muted, e.g,, approx.5 K near the tropopause at 40-50 km and approx.3 K just above the surface. This is consistent with the large radiative relaxation times at these altitudes and with efficient meridional heat transport. What is curious is the manner in which temperatures in the north winter polar atmosphere make the transition between the troposphere and lower stratosphere, where seasonal variations are relatively small, and higher altitudes, where they are large. Temperatures at all latitudes sounded by the radio occultations exhibit similar behavior in the lower stratosphere, increasing with altitude. Between 80 and 100 kin, however, the temperatures at high northern latitudes exhibit a sudden drop with increasing altitude, producing the meridional contrast in the upper stratosphere described above. While the radiative relaxation time associated with infrared gaseous coolants decreases with altitude in the stratosphere, it is not likely to account for the abrupt transition observed. Possible mechanisms for this transition are discussed, including the presence of an optically thick. cloud at thermal-infrared wavelengths.

Flasar, F. M.↗

Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Streamflow Prediction in the Snowmelt Season: A Continental-Scale Analysis

In areas dominated by winter snowcover, the prediction of streamflow during the snowmelt season may benefit from three pieces of information: (i) the accurate prediction of weather variability (precipitation, etc.) leading up to and during the snowmelt season, (ii) estimates of the amount of snow present during the winter season, and (iii) estimates of the amount of soil moisture underlying the snowpack during the winter season. The importance of accurate meteorological predictions and wintertime snow estimates is obvious. The contribution of soil moisture to streamflow prediction is more subtle yet potentially very important. If the soil is dry below the snowpack, a significant fraction of the snowmelt may be lost to streamflow and potential reservoir storage, since it may infiltrate the soil instead for later evaporation. Such evaporative losses are presumably smaller if the soil below the snowpack is wet. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art land surface model to quantify the contribution of wintertime snow and soil moisture information -- both together and separately -- to skill in forecasting springtime streamflow. We find that soil moisture information indeed contributes significantly to streamflow prediction skill.

Reichle, Rolf↗

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2010 Hurricane Season

Estimates are presented for the tropical cyclone activity expected for the 2010 North Atlantic basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the 2010 season will be more active than the 2009 season, reflecting increased frequencies more akin to that of the current more active phase that has been in vogue since 1995. Averages (+/- 1 sd) during the current more active phase are 14.5+/-4.7, 7.8+/-3.2, 3.7+/-1.8, and 2+/- 2, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the number of hurricanes (NH), the number of major hurricanes (NMH), and the number of United States (U.S.) land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH). Based on the "usual" behavior of the 10-yma parametric first differences, one expects NTC = 19+/-2, NH = 14+/-2, NMH = 7+/-2, and NUSLFH = 4+/-2 for the 2010 hurricane season; however, based on the "best guess" 10-yma values of surface-air temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) and the Oceanic Nino Index, one expects NTC > or equals 16, NH > or equals 14, NMH > or equals 7, and NUSLFH > or equals 6.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Time Variations of Mars' Gravitational Field and Seasonal Changes in the Masses of the Polar Ice Caps

Tracking of the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft has been used to measure changes in the long-wavelength gravity field of Mars and to estimate the seasonal mass of carbon dioxide that is deposited in the polar regions each fall and winter and sublimed back into the atmosphere every spring and summer. Observations spanning 4 Mars years have been analyzed. A clear and well-defined seasonal signal, composed of annual and semiannual periods, is seen in the lowest odd degree 3 coefficient but with less confidence in the lowest even degree 2, which is expected to be smaller and is also much more difficult to observe. Direct estimation of the seasonal mass exchange employing a simple, seasonally varying model of the size and height of each cap provides values that indicate some systematic departures from the deposition predicted by a general circulation model. Estimates are also obtained for the precession and nutation of the pole of rotation of Mars, the degree 2 tidal Love number, k2, and the mass of Phobos, the larger of Mars' two natural satellites.

Smith, David E.↗

Analyzing the Effect of Intraseasonal Meteorological Variability and Land Cover on Aerosol-Cloud Interactions During the Amazonian Biomass Burning Season

High resolution aerosol, cloud, water vapor, and atmospheric profile data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are utilized to examine the impact of aerosols on clouds during the Amazonian biomass burning season in Rondnia, Brazil. It is found that increasing background column water vapor (CWV) throughout this transition season between the Amazon dry and wet seasons exerts a strong effect on cloud properties. As a result, aerosol-cloud correlations should be stratified by column water vapor to achieve a more accurate assessment of the effect of aerosols on clouds. Previous studies ignored the systematic changes to meteorological factors during the transition season, leading to possible misinterpretation of their results. Cloud fraction is shown generally to increase with aerosol optical depth (AOD) for both low and high values of column water vapor, whereas the relationship between cloud optical depth (COD) and AOD exhibits a different relationship. COD increases with AOD until AOD approx. 0.25 due to the first indirect (microphysical) effect. At higher values of AOD, COD is found to decrease with increasing AOD, which may be due to: (1) the inhibition of cloud development by absorbing aerosols (radiative effect) and/or (2) a retrieval artifact in which the measured reflectance in the visible is less than expected from a cloud top either from the darkening of clouds through the addition of carbonaceous biomass burning aerosols or subpixel dark surface contamination in the measured cloud reflectance. If (1) is a contributing mechanism, as we suspect, then a linear relationship between the indirect effect and increasing AOD, assumed in a majority of GCMs, is inaccurate since these models do not include treatment of aerosol absorption in and around clouds. The effect of aerosols on both column water vapor and clouds over varying land surface types is also analyzed. The study finds that the difference in column water vapor between forest and pasture is not correlated with aerosol loading, supporting the assumption that temporal variation of column water vapor is primarily a function of the larger-scale meteorology. However, a difference in the response of cloud fraction to increasing AOD is observed between forest and pasture. This suggests that dissimilarities between other meteorological factors, such as atmospheric stability, are likely to have an impact on aerosol-cloud correlations between different land-cover types.

TenHoeve, J. E.↗

Magnitude and Seasonality of Wetland Methane Emissions from the Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada)

The Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) is the second largest boreal wetland ecosystem in the world and an important natural source of global atmospheric methane. We quantify the HBL methane emissions by using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate aircraft measurements over the HBL from the ARCTAS and pre-HIPPO campaigns in May-July 2008, together with continuous 2004-2008 surface observations at Fraserdale (southern edge of HBL) and Alert (Arctic background). The difference in methane concentrations between Fraserdale and Alert is shown to be a good indicator of HBL emissions, and implies a sharp seasonal onset of emissions in late May (consistent with the aircraft data), a peak in July-August, and a seasonal shut-off in September. The model, in which seasonal variation of emission is mainly driven by surface temperature, reproduces well the observations in summer but its seasonal shoulders are too broad. We suggest that this reflects the suppression of emissions by snow cover and greatly improve the model simulation by accounting for this effect. Our resulting best estimate for HBL methane emissions is 2.3 Tg/a, several-fold higher than previous estimates (Roulet et al., 1994; Worthy et al., 2000).

Pickett-Heaps, C. A.↗

Seasonal Variability of Saturn's Atmosphere

The seasonal variability of Saturn's clouds and weather layer, currently displaying a variety of phenomena (convective storms, planetary waves, giant storms and lightning-induced events, etc.) is not yet fully understood. Variations of Saturn's radiance at 5.2 microns, a spectral region dominated by thermal emission in an atmospheric window containing weak gaseous absorption, contain a strong axisymmetric component as well as large discrete features at low and mid-latitudes that are several degrees colder than the planetary average and uncorrelated with features at shorter wavelengths that are dominated by reflected sunlight (Yanamandra-Fisher et al., 2001. Icarus, Vol. 150). The characterization of several fundamental atmospheric properties and processes, however, remains incomplete, namely: How do seasons affect (a) the global distribution of gaseous constituents and aerosols; and (b) temperatures and the stability against convection and large scale-atmospheric transport? Do 5-micron clouds have counterparts at other altitude levels? What changes occur during the emergence of Great White Storms? Data acquired at the NASA/IRTF and NAOJ/Subaru from 1995 - 2011; since 2004, high-resolution multi-spectral and high-spatial imaging data acquired by the NASA/ESA Cassini mission, represents half a Saturnian year or two seasons. With the addition of detailed multi-spectral data sets acquired by amateur observers, we study these dramatic phenomena to better understand the timeline of the evolution of these events. Seasonal (or temporal) trends in the observables such as albedo of the clouds, thermal fields of the atmosphere as function of altitude, development of clouds, hazes and global abundances of various hydrocarbons in the atmosphere can now be modeled. We will present results of our ongoing investigation for the search and characterization of periodicities over half a Saturnian year, based on a non-biased a priori approach and time series techniques (such as Principal Component Analysis, PCA and Lomb-Scargle periodograms, LSP).

Yanamandra-Fisher, Padma A.↗