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Hybrid Method for Eigenvalue Sensitivity Coefficient Calculations: Part II [Slides]

The hybrid method stemmed from a need to develop a way for CLUTCH to generate more accurate sensitivity coefficients for systems with large fissionable reflectors (i.e., HMF-028-001). For additional systems, the method has been shown to generate accurate sensitivity coefficients for a variety of systems with different fissile nuclides, fissile forms, and neutron energy spectra.

CLUTCH↗

Microscale Thermophoresis (MST) as a Tool to Study Binding Interactions of Oxygen-Sensitive Biohybrids

Microscale thermophoresis (MST) is a technique used to measure the strength of molecular interactions. MST is a thermophoretic-based technique that monitors the change in fluorescence associated with the movement of fluorescent-labeled molecules in response to a temperature gradient triggered by an IR LASER. MST has advantages over other approaches for examining molecular interactions, such as isothermal titration calorimetry, nuclear magnetic resonance, biolayer interferometry, and surface plasmon resonance, requiring a small sample size that does not need to be immobilized and a high-sensitivity fluorescence detection. In addition, since the approach involves the loading of samples into capillaries that can be easily sealed, it can be adapted to analyze oxygen-sensitive samples. In this Bio-protocol, we describe the troubleshooting and optimization we have done to enable the use of MST to examine protein–protein interactions, protein–ligand interactions, and protein–nanocrystal interactions. The salient elements in the developed procedures include 1) loading and sealing capabilities in an anaerobic chamber for analysis using a NanoTemper MST located on the benchtop in air, 2) identification of the optimal reducing agents compatible with data acquisition with effective protection against trace oxygen, and 3) the optimization of data acquisition and analysis procedures. The procedures lay the groundwork to define the determinants of molecular interactions in these technically demanding systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

New physical processes for extracting GPDs with a better sensitivity to partonic structure

We introduce a new type of exclusive processes for a better study of generalized parton distributions (GPDs), which we refer to as single-diffractive hard exclusive processes (SDHEPs). We advocate a two-stage framework for picturing SDHEPs based on the separation of scales, which gives a clear description both kinematically and dynamically. We examine the sensitivity of the SDHEP to the parton momentum fraction x -dependence of GPDs, and demonstrate it quantitatively with two specific processes that can be readily measured at J-PARC or AMBER using a pion beam and at JLab using a photon beam, respectively. Both processes are capable of providing enhanced sensitivity to the x -dependence, overcoming the problem of shadow GPDs, and disentangling different types of GPDs with various spin asymmetries.

Qiu, Jianwei↗

Ultra-sensitive radon assay using an electrostatic chamber in a recirculating system

Rare event searches such as neutrinoless double beta decay and Weakly Interacting Massive Particle detection require ultra-low background detectors. Radon contamination is a significant challenge for these experiments, which employ highly sensitive radon assay techniques to identify and select low-emission materials. This work presents the development of ultra-sensitive electrostatic chamber (ESC) instruments designed to measure radon emanation in a recirculating gas loop, for future lower background experiments. Unlike traditional methods that separate emanation and detection steps, this system allows continuous radon transport and detection. This is made possible with a custom-built recirculation pump. A Python-based analysis framework, PyDAn, was developed to process and fit time-dependent radon decay data. Radon emanation rates are given for various materials measured with this instrument. A radon source of known activity provides an absolute calibration, enabling statistically-limited minimal detectable activities of 20 uBq. These devices are powerful tools for screening materials in the development of low-background particle physics experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Fast and sensitive measurements of sub-3 nm particles using Condensation Particle Counters For Atmospheric Rapid Measurements (CPC FARM)

New particle formation (NPF) is the atmospheric process whereby gas molecules react and nucleate to form detectable particles. NPF has a strong impact on Earth's radiative balance as it produces roughly half of global cloud condensation nuclei. However, the time resolution and sensitivity of current instrumentation are inadequate in measuring the size distribution of sub-3 nm particles, the particles critical for understanding NPF. Here we present the Condensation Particle Counters For Atmospheric Rapid Measurements (CPC FARM), a method to measure the concentrations of freshly nucleated particles. The CPC FARM consists of five CPCs operating in parallel, each configured to operate at different detectable particle sizes between 1–3 nm. This study explores two methods to calculate the size distribution from the differential measurements across the CPC channels. The performance of both inversion methods was tested against the size distribution measured by a pair of stepping particle mobility sizers (SMPSs) during an ambient air sampling study in Pittsburgh, PA. Observational results indicate that the CPC FARM is more accurate with higher time resolution and sensitivity in the sub-3 nm range compared to the SMPS.

Cheng, Darren [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, ↗

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗

Canopy structure modulates the sensitivity of subalpine forest stands to interannual snowpack and precipitation variability

A declining spring snowpack is expected to have widespread effects on montane and subalpine forests in western North America and across the globe. The way that tree water demands respond to this change will have important impacts on forest health and downstream water subsidies. Here, we present data from a network of sap velocity sensors and xylem water isotope measurements from three common tree species (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa and Populus tremuloides) across a hillslope transect in a subalpine watershed in the Upper Colorado River basin. We use these data to compare tree- and stand-level responses to the historically high spring snowpack but low summer rainfall of 2019 against the low spring snowpack but high summer rainfall amounts of 2021 and 2022. From the sap velocity data, we found that only 40 % of the trees showed an increase in cumulative transpiration in response to the large snowpack year (2019), illustrating the absence of a common response to interannual spring snowpack variability. The trees that increased water use during the year with the large spring snowpack were all found in dense canopy stands – irrespective of species – while trees in open-canopy stands were more reliant on summer rains and, thus, more active during the years with modest snow and higher summer rain amounts. Using the sap velocity data along with supporting measurements of soil moisture and snow depth, we propose three mechanisms that lead to stand density modulating the tree-level response to changing seasonality of precipitation: Topographically mediated convergence zones have consistent access to recharge from snowmelt which supports denser stands with high water demands that are more reliant and sensitive to changing snow. Interception of summer rain in dense stands reduces the throughfall of summer rain to surface soils, limiting the sensitivity of the dense stands to changes in summer rain. Shading in dense stands allows the snowpack to persist deeper into the growing season, providing high local reliance on snow during the fore-summer (early-summer) drought period. Combining data generated from natural gradients in stand density, like this experiment, with results from controlled forest-thinning experiments can be used to develop a better understanding of the responses of forested ecosystems to futures with reduced spring snowpack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Novel Instrumentation for Advanced Quantum Chromodynamics Studies with Flavor Sensitivity

The true nature of ordinary matter has always fascinated humankind, whose imagination has been pointed to the right direction since the 5th century BC with the first known atomic theory by Leucippus and Democritus. They described the matter as formed by small, invisible, indivisible, and eternal particles: the atoms. A long investigation followed them, including contributions from several of history?s greatest philosophers and scientists. The progress led to the understanding that atoms have an internal structure consisting of a central nucleus composed of protons and neutrons, surrounded by a cloud of electrons. About 50 years ago, scientists discovered that nucleons also have an internal structure. Through the Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS) experiments, on which a lepton is scattered off a nucleon, it was possible to access the distribution of partons inside the nucleon along the longitudinal direction defined by the hard-scale probe. It was a crucial step in developing Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), currently the best theory describing the subatomic matter. Ultimately, DIS was recognized as a limited tool to investigate the nucleon structure because it is mainly sensitive to observables at the probe?s energy scale. In recent decades, theoretical developments have allowed defining soft-scale observables by measuring more complex processes. Reactions such as Semi-Inclusive Deep Inelastic Scattering (SIDIS) with single or di-hadron production, can provide information about the momentum of parton inside the nucleon. In particular, polarized SIDIS allows access to the Transverse-Momentum-Dependent (TMD) parton distributions describing the correlations of the quark and gluon degrees of freedom in transverse momentum and spin. This study can provide three-dimensional imaging of nucleon structure and inner dynamics, as long as the hadronic component in the final state can be measured. Identifying the species of the produced particles provides information on the quark flavor and assumes a crucial role in this context. The thesis describes the work carried out by the author in preparing novel instrumentation for particle identification in the final state of DIS experiments, to support modern analysis of the parton dynamics within the basic confined object (nucleon) with flavor sensitivity. The work has been focused on the CLAS12 spectrometer in operation at Jefferson Laboratory (JLab), Newport News, VA, USA, and the ePIC experiment in preparation for the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Long Island, NY, USA. CLAS12 is a fixed-target experiment using a 12 GeV beam of polarized electrons scattering off polarized nuclear targets. In 2018 and 2022, two Ring Imaging Cherenkov (RICH) detector modules were installed to improve the ?±/K± separation in the high-momentum region (3÷8 GeV/c) of the experiment. The author contributed to the assembly, installation, and com- missioning of the second RICH module, to the efficiency studies of the first module, and to the first SIDIS analysis with high-momentum kaons identified by the RICH. These studies led to the observation of the first spin asymmetry with high-momentum kaons from the CLAS12 experiment, and an initial assessment of the systematic error associated with the hadron identification. ePIC will be the first experiment at the future EIC, the new collider designed to expand the frontiers of QCD. The author was involved in the development of the dual-radiator Ring Imaging Cherenkov (dRICH). This detector will interpolate the measurements of the Cherenkov angles of photons produced by relativistic particles crossing two different radiators to identify charged hadrons. The author contributed to the studies conducted with the dRICH prototype, developing the reconstruction and analysis software and simulations, characterizing the aerogel radiator samples, and being responsible for the tracking system used during the beam tests. The performance obtained by the prototype has been progressively improved and the results are now comparable with the expectation derived from the simulation and satisfy the requirements of the experiment. In Chapter 1, the SIDIS theory is briefly introduced, outlying the connection with the experimental measurement. Chapter 2 includes the description of the CLAS12 RICH, its assembly and installation, and the efficiency study. In Chapter 3, the analysis of the Beam-Spin Asymmetry associated with SIDIS kaons is described. Chapter 4 describes the contribution to the dRICH for EIC, starting from a description of the ePIC experiment and focusing on the studies performed for the dRICH prototype. The conclusions of this work are summarized at the end.

Vallarino, Simone↗

Sensitivity analysis of design parameters in RowWise borehole layout for ground heat exchangers

Ground source heat pump systems offer a promising pathway toward energy-efficient building heating and cooling. The performance and cost-effectiveness of these systems heavily depend on the design of the ground heat exchanger (GHE), particularly the spatial placement of boreholes used in large commercial buildings. Among various borefield layout strategies, the RowWise approach generates and optimizes borehole configurations within irregular polygonal land boundaries, providing land-use efficiency and installation flexibility. While multiple geometric design parameters constrain the RowWise layout, their influence on the system thermal performance and total drilling requirements remains unclear. Thus, this study presents a sensitivity analysis of key design parameters influencing the RowWise layout of vertical borehole GHEs, including the perimeter spacing ratio, borehole spacing, borehole field rotation angle, and borehole length. GHEDesigner and Ray Tune are employed to generate and assess different RowWise configurations. A series of parametric simulations was conducted to quantify the impact of each parameter on geometric distribution, economic cost, and computational speed. The results provide critical insights into the sensitivity and relative importance of different design parameters of RowWise method, offering practical guidance for designers aiming to optimize GHE layouts by balancing thermal efficiency, land constraints, and economic feasibility.

Xu, Dikai [Purdue University]↗

Electron Microscopy Transfer System to Protect Atmosphere‐Sensitive Materials for Scanning Electron Microscopy Characterization

Atmosphere- and/or moisture-sensitive materials can be challenging to characterize using electron microscopy techniques due to sample preparation workflows that generally require exposure to ambient conditions. Here, we describe a novel preparation method that uses aluminum foil in combination with a commercial cryo-EM transfer system to circumvent undesired exposure to the atmosphere. First, hygroscopic MgCl 2 was used as a model material, and prepared samples (both protected and unprotected) were placed in a controlled-humidity environment (> 80% relative humidity) for various exposure lengths (circa seconds to hours). Following this, the effectiveness of the sample preparation method was determined by comparing qualitative photos and quantitative X-ray diffraction patterns between the two sample subsets. The combined results of these experiments suggest that the outlined preparation method effectively protects MgCl 2 from atmospheric contamination compared to MgCl 2 samples that had no protective measures taken. Finally, the preparation method was utilized to protect a highly hygroscopic crystalline BaO thin film for characterization via scanning electron microscopy, thereby demonstrating a functional application of the outlined preparation technique and an additional use for the commercial cryo-EM transfer system beyond its intended application.

atmosphere-sensitive materials↗

Toward real-time optimization through model reduction and model discrepancy sensitivities

Optimization problems arise in a range of scenarios, from optimal control to model parameter estimation. In many applications, such as the development of digital twins, it is essential to solve these optimization problems within wall-clock-time limitations. However, this is often unattainable for complex systems, such as those modeled by nonlinear partial differential equations. One strategy for mitigating this issue is to construct a reduced-order model (ROM) that enables more rapid optimization. In particular, the use of nonintrusive ROMs—those that do not require access to the full-order model at evaluation time—is popular because they facilitate the computation of optimization solutions within the wall-clock time requirements. However, the optimization solution will be unreliable if the iterates move outside the ROM training data. This article proposes the use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy (HDSA-MD) as a computationally efficient tool to augment ROM-constrained optimization and improve its reliability. The proposed approach consists of two phases: (i) an offline phase where several full-order model evaluations are computed to train the ROM, and (ii) an online phase where a ROM-constrained optimization problem is solved, a limited number of full-order model evaluations are computed, and HDSA-MD is used to enhance the optimization solution. Numerical results are demonstrated for two examples, atmospheric contaminant control and wildfire ignition location estimation, in which a ROM is trained offline using inaccurate atmospheric data. In conclusion, the HDSA-MD update yields a significant improvement in the ROM-constrained optimization solution using only one full-order model evaluation online with corrected atmospheric data.

PDE-constrained optimization↗

Earthworms significantly enhance the temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition: Insights into future soil carbon budgeting

How and what soil fauna influence the soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition rate (Rs) and its temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) have been largely ignored, although this is a crucial matter, especially under the scenario of global change. Further, in this study, a novel approach was adopted with a continuous changing-temperature incubation (daytime, from 7 °C to 22 °C; nighttime, from 22 °C to 7 °C) with rapid and continuous measurement, to examine the effect of soil macrofauna (specifically, earthworms) on Rs and Q 10 with three densities (no addition, low density, and high density). According to the results, the earthworms accelerated Rs. Furthermore, Rs with earthworm addition had a symmetrical pattern during daytime and nighttime cycles, which is contrary to traditional soil incubation, with only soil microbe as asymmetrical. More importantly, earthworm addition increased Q 10 markedly, ranging from 48% to 67%. Overall, the findings highlight the pivotal role of earthworms as soil macrofauna that regulating soil carbon release, and their effects should be integrated into process-based ecological models in future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Degrees of rate control and AutoDiff-driven direct sensitivity analysis in heterogeneous catalysis

Despite the wide application and benefits of the degree of rate control (DRC) analysis, several details remain argued, particularly about the conservation of DRCs at transient (TR) and steady-state (SS) conditions, especially for complex reaction networks. This work argues that previous proofs about the conservation properties of DRCs have been incomplete, and we provide new mathematical proofs at TR and SS conditions. In addition, we use both analytical (automatic differentiation) and numerical (finite difference) approaches to compute DRCs for the case study of ethane hydrogenolysis (EH) over Pt(111). This work confirms that at both TR and SS conditions, the sum of all DRCs, i.e., sum of the degrees of kinetic (DKRC) and thermodynamic rate control (DTRC), is conserved at zero. At SS conditions, the sum of DKRC is conserved at 1 while the sum of DTRC is conserved at −1. In corroboration of previous works, we show that the DTRC for any adsorbate at SS is equal to the product of the species coverage and a constant. In contrast, at TR conditions, the individual sums of both DTRC and DKRC are not conserved and can be any real number, with potential implications for the novel field of dynamic catalysis. Finally, we show that the conventional finite difference (FD) approach, only useful at SS, is prone to inaccuracy and very sensitive to the value of the differential change applied. The optimal differential value also varies significantly with system and rate definition. Consequently, we describe and illustrate in this work the application of the automatic differentiation (AD) approach for the more accurate determination of DRCs at both TR and SS conditions.

Automatic differentiation↗

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for SPERT III E-core reactivity measurement benchmarking

The Special Power Excursion Reactor Test (SPERT) III E-core experiment is important because it provides critical data on reactor behavior under significant reactivity insertions, which is essential for validating computer simulations and ensuring the safety of modern light water reactors. Its design similarities to contemporary reactors make it a valuable resource for understanding and mitigating extreme hazards in nuclear operations. The current study details the application of formal parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis to a model of the SPERT-III E-core model for zero power reactivity benchmarking. Additionally, the reactivity impact from various modeling assumptions is quantified. Overall, an conservative estimate for an uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$ of $\pm$1257 was observed. A less conservative, more realistic, uncertainty estimate of $\pm$1096 pcm can be justified by the potential for various parametric uncertainties to become negligible when sampled independently across the ~1400 pins in the core. The experimental results fall within both of these uncertainty bounds. Standardized regression coefficient as well as Sobol indices are used to identify the guide tube thicknesses as the primary contributors to the uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$. Overall, this study provides information on how the uncertainties in input parameters and modeling methods impact simulated k$_{\text{eff}}$ values and can be used to aid model building efforts for future code validation with the SPERT-III E-core experiment.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Sensitivity analysis, surrogate modeling, and optimization of pebble-bed reactors considering normal and accident conditions

This research provides a valuable tool that streamlines the optimization process while significantly increasing its accuracy. This study creates a robust framework for reactor design optimization by incorporating comprehensive modeling using the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). BlueCRAB is the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's code suite for non-light water reactor analysis and includes the Griffin, Pronghorn, and Bison applications. This not only improves the efficiency of the optimization process but also enhances the reliability of the results. Such a tool is essential for advancing the state-of-the-art in pebble-bed reactor technology and is critical for achieving the goals of Generation IV reactors, which aim for safe, sustainable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions. This work presents and applies this workflow on pebble-bed reactors while considering both normal and off-normal conditions. A representative gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor at equilibrium core conditions serves as the nominal design specification for normal operation and is based on previous research. The depressurized loss-of-forced-cooling accident is deployed for off-normal conditions in this work. After defining design-related parameters and quantities of interest regarding reactor safety and performance, this multiphysics model is sampled using the MOOSE stochastic tools module. The result is a comprehensive dataset of configurations, enabling sensitivity analysis and the generation of surrogate models. Subsequently, the dataset and surrogate models are employed in two optimization studies aimed at maximizing fuel utilization and economic profit while adhering to safety and operational constraints. Performing the optimization process with fuel utilization as the metric leads to an improvement of approximately 10%, compared to engineering-judgment-based nominal conditions. The optimization on economic profit leads to an estimated increase of ~300 million USD over the lifetime of the reactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Resolution Sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch Scheme Across the Gray Zone by Isolating Interactions: A TWP‐ICE Case Study

The resolution sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convection scheme and the role of interactions between the physics and dynamics within the gray zone (<10 km) were investigated using the Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework. Two groups of experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model via traditional (Tradition) runs and SPADE runs with resolutions of 1, 2, 4, and 8 km during the wet period of the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP‐ICE). Results show that the KF scheme simulates the weakened convective processes well as the resolution increases in both groups, and the changes in the convective variables with resolution in SPADE are smaller than in the Tradition group. This indicates the important effects of interactions between model components on convection parameterizations as the resolution changes. Additionally, the microphysics variables remain nearly unchanged with resolution in SPADE and weaken slightly in Tradition as the resolution decreases, suggesting the relatively weaker influences of model interactions for the resolved‐cloud parameterization. Therefore, the scale‐aware behavior of KF scheme is further strengthened in Tradition runs, primarily through inhibiting the strength of stratiform processes through physics–dynamics interactions and physical components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗