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NASA NTRS1984

Comparison of Land Cover Information from LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Airborne Thematic Mapper Simulator (TMS) Data for Hydrologic Applications

Detailed land cover classifications were performed on the Thematic Mapper Simulator (TMS) and MSS data of the Clinton River Basin (acquired on August 19, 1981, and June 28, 1980, respectively) using supervised classification techniques. Differences in interclass separability were compared to select several promising TMS band combinations, selected from the 27 covering the Clinton River Basin. The TMS data produced a more accurate and spatially contiguous classification than MSS for this study site. While the accuracy of the 4-band TM data set was as good as the 7-band, the 3-band TMS data sets were also better than the MSS. These results indicate that both the increased spectral discrimination and spatial resolution contribute to improved classification accuracy. The possibility of reducing the data analysis burden associated with large TM data volumes through effective band selection therefore appears promising. The implications of the improved classification accuracy of TMS data are important for hydrologic and economic modeling. In particular, the higher accuracies for the developed categories (residential and commercial) should improve the predictions of runoff in flood forecasting models and of flood damage for damage calculation models appreciably.

Gervin, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE): Improvements and Applications for Studying Precipitation Processes

Convection is the primary transport process in the Earth's atmosphere. About two-thirds of the Earth's rainfall and severe floods derive from convection. In addition, two-thirds of the global rain falls in the tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have been used to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and phenomena from micro-scale to cloud-scale and mesoscale as well as their interactions with radiation and surface processes. CRMs use sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes and can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems. CRMs also allow for explicit interaction between clouds, outgoing longwave (cooling) and incoming solar (heating) radiation, and ocean and land surface processes. Observations are required to initialize CRMs and to validate their results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past three decades. It is amulti-dimensional non-hydrostatic CRM that can simulate clouds and cloud systems in different environments. Early improvements and testing were presented in Tao and Simpson (1993) and Tao et al. (2003a). A review on the application of the GCE to the understanding of precipitation processes can be found in Simpson and Tao (1993) and Tao (2003). In this paper, recent model improvements (microphysics, radiation and land surface processes) are described along with their impact and performance on cloud and precipitation events in different geographic locations via comparisons with observations. In addition, recent advanced applications of the GCE are presented that include understanding the physical processes responsible for diurnal variation, examining the impact of aerosols (cloud condensation nuclei or CCN and ice nuclei or IN) on precipitation processes, utilizing a satellite simulator to improve the microphysics, providing better simulations for satellite-derived latent heating retrieval, and coupling with a general circulation model to improve the representation of precipitation processes.

GCE↗

NASA NTRS1990

Effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of heteroepitaxial indium phosphide solar cells

Metallorganic chemical-vapor-deposited heteroepitaxial indium phosphide (InP) solar cell experimental results were simulated by using a PC-1D computer model. The effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of n(+)/p/p(+) heteroepitaxial InP/GaAs solar cell was presented. The thinner and lighter doped emitters were observed to offer higher cell efficiencies. The influence of emitter thickness and minority carrier diffusion length on the cell efficiency with respect to dislocation density was studied. Heteroepitaxial cells with efficiencies similar to present day homojunction InP efficiencies (greater than 16 percent AMO) were shown to be attainable if a dislocation density lower than 10(exp 6)/sq cm could be achieved. A realistic optimized design study yielded InP solar cells of over 22 percent AMO efficiency at 25 C.

Jain, Raj K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of heteroepitaxial indium phosphide solar cells

Metalorganic chemical-vapor-deposited heteroepitaxial indium phosphide (InP) solar cell experimental results were simulated by using a PC-1D computer model. The effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of n(+)/p/p(+) heteroepitaxial InP/GaAs solar cell was presented. The thinner and lighter doped emitters were observed to offer higher cell efficiencies. The influence of emitter thickness and minority carrier diffusion length on the cell efficiency with respect to dislocation density was studied. Heteroepitaxial cells with efficiencies similar to present day homojunction InP efficiencies (greaater than 16 percent AM0) were shown to be attainable if a dislocation density lower than 10(exp 6)/sq cm could be achieved. A realistic optimized design study yielded InP solar cells of over 22 percent AM0 efficiency at 25 C.

Jain, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Constitutive Soil Properties for Unwashed Sand and Kennedy Space Center

Accurate soil models are required for numerical simulations of land landings for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle. This report provides constitutive material models for one soil, unwashed sand, from NASA Langley's gantry drop test facility and three soils from Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The four soil models are based on mechanical and compressive behavior observed during geotechnical laboratory testing of remolded soil samples. The test specimens were reconstituted to measured in situ density and moisture content. Tests included: triaxial compression, hydrostatic compression, and uniaxial strain. A fit to the triaxial test results defines the strength envelope. Hydrostatic and uniaxial tests define the compressibility. The constitutive properties are presented in the format of LS-DYNA Material Model 5: Soil and Foam. However, the laboratory test data provided can be used to construct other material models. The four soil models are intended to be specific to the soil conditions discussed in the report. The unwashed sand model represents clayey sand at high density. The KSC models represent three distinct coastal sand conditions: low density dry sand, high density in-situ moisture sand, and high density flooded sand. It is possible to approximate other sands with these models, but the results would be unverified without geotechnical tests to confirm similar soil behavior.

Thomas, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Axial focusing of impact energy in the Earth's interior: Proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis

A causal link between major impact events and global processes would probably require a significant change in the thermal state of the Earth's interior, presumably brought about by coupling of impact energy. One possible mechanism for such energy coupling from the surface to the deep interior would be through focusing due to axial symmetry. Antipodal focusing of surface and body waves from earthquakes is a well-known phenomenon which has previously been exploited by seismologists in studies of the Earth's deep interior. Antipodal focusing from impacts on the Moon, Mercury, and icy satellites has also been invoked by planetary scientists to explain unusual surface features opposite some of the large impact structures on these bodies. For example, 'disrupted' terrains have been observed antipodal to the Caloris impact basis on Mercury and Imbrium Basin on the Moon. Very recently there have been speculations that antipodal focusing of impact energy within the mantle may lead to flood basalt and hotspot activity, but there has not yet been an attempt at a rigorous model. A new hypothesis was proposed and preliminary proof-of-principle tests for the coupling of energy from major impacts to the mantle by axial focusing of seismic waves was performed. Because of the axial symmetry of the explosive source, the phases and amplitudes are dependent only on ray parameter (or takeoff angle) and are independent of azimuthal angle. For a symmetric and homogeneous Earth, all the seismic energy radiated by the impact at a given takeoff angle will be refocused (minus attenuation) on the axis of symmetry, regardless of the number of reflections and refractions it has experienced. Mantle material near the axis of symmetry will experience more strain cycles with much greater amplitude than elsewhere and will therefore experience more irreversible heating. The situation is very different than for a giant earthquake, which in addition to having less energy, has an asymmetric focal mechanism and a larger area. Two independent proof-of-principle approaches were used. The first makes use of seismic simulations, which are being performed with a realistic Earth model to determine the degree of focusing along the axis and to estimate the volume of material, if any, that experiences significant irreversible heating. The second involves two-dimensional hydrodynamic code simulations to determine the stress history, internal energy, and temperature rise as a function of radius along the axis.

Boslough, M. B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The origins of radial fracture systems and associated large lava flows on Venus

Magellan images have revealed the existence of systems of radial fractures on venus that are very similar in form to terrestrial dike swarms such as the Mackenzie swarm in Northern Canada. The association of many of the fracture systems with lava flows, calderas, and volcanic edifices further support the idea of a dike emplacement origin. A global survey of the Magellan images has allowed the location of 300 such fracture systems. Two types of fracture systems are defined. A series of models were developed to simulate the emplacement of dikes on Venus. Observations of fracture lengths and widths were then used to constrain the emplacement conditions. The model results show that the great length and relatively large width of the fractures can only be explained if the dikes that produce them were emplaced in high driving pressure (pressure buffered) conditions. Such conditions imply high rates of melt production, which is consistent with the melt being derived directly from a plume head. We have recently modeled the vertical emplacement of a dike from the top of a mantle plume and calculated the eruption rates such a dike would produce on reaching the surface. This modeling shows that eruption rates of approximately 0.1 cu km/hr can readily be generated by such a dike, consistent with the above results. However, the sensitivity of the model to dike width and therefore driving pressure means that eruption rates from dikes emplaced from the base of the crust or the head of a mantle plume could be orders of magnitude higher than this. Clearly, therefore, the model needs to be refined in order to better constrain eruption conditions. However, it is worth noting here that the initial results do show that even for moderate dike widths, eruption rates could be at least on the order of those estimated for terrestrial flood basalts.

Parfitt, Elisabeth A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Estimation of minority carrier diffusion lengths in InP/GaAs solar cells

Minority carrier diffusion length is one of the most important parameters affecting the solar cell performance. An attempt is made to estimate the minority carrier diffusion lengths is the emitter and base of InP/GaAs heteroepitaxial solar cells. The PC-1D computer model was used to simulate the experimental cell results measured at NASA Lewis under AMO (air mass zero) spectrum at 25 C. A 16 nm hole diffusion length in the emitter and a 0.42 micron electron diffusion length in the base gave very good agreement with the I-V curve. The effect of varying minority carrier diffusion lengths on cell short current, open circuit voltage, and efficiency was studied. It is also observed that the front surface recombination velocity has very little influence on the cell performance. The poor output of heteroepitaxial cells is caused primarily by the large number of dislocations generated at the interfaces that propagate through the bulk indium phosphide layers. Cell efficiency as a function of dislocation density was calculated and the effect of improved emitter bulk properties on cell efficiency is presented. It is found that cells with over 16 percent efficiencies should be possible, provided the dislocation density is below 10(exp 6)/sq cm.

Jain, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission - Algorithm and Cal/Val Activities and Synergies with SMOS and Other L-Band Missions

NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, planned for launch in late 2014, has as its key measurement objective the frequent, global mapping of near-surface soil moisture and its freeze-thaw state. SMAP soil moisture and freeze/thaw measurements at 10 km and 3 km resolutions respectively, would enable significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture control of these fluxes is a key factor in the performance of atmospheric models used for weather forecasts and climate projections Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing floods and for monitoring drought. In addition, observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing over the boreal latitudes can help reduce uncertainties in quantifying the global carbon balance. The SMAP measurement concept utilizes an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna. The SMAP radiometer and radar flight hardware and ground processing designs are incorporating approaches to identify and mitigate potential terrestrial radio frequency interference (RFI). The radar and radiometer instruments are planned to operate in a 680 km polar orbit, viewing the surface at a constant 40-degree incidence angle with a 1000-km swath width, providing 3-day global coverage. Data from the instruments would yield global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state to be provided at 10 km and 3 km resolutions respectively, every two to three days. Plans are to provide also a radiometer-only soil moisture product at 40-km spatial resolution. This product and the underlying brightness temperatures have characteristics similar to those provided by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. As a result, there are unique opportunities for common data product development and continuity between the two missions. SMAP also has commonalities with other satellite missions having L-band radiometer and/or radar sensors applicable to soil moisture measurement, such as Aquarius, SAO COM, and ALOS-2. The algorithms and data products for SMAP are being developed in the SMAP Science Data System (SDS) Testbed. The algorithms are developed and evaluated in the SDS Testbed using simulated SMAP observations as well as observational data from current airborne and spaceborne L-band sensors including SMOS. The SMAP project is developing a Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Plan that is designed to support algorithm development (pre-launch) and data product validation (post-launch). A key component of the Cal/Val Plan is the identification, characterization, and instrumentation of sites that can be used to calibrate and validate the sensor data (Level I) and derived geophysical products (Level 2 and higher). In this presentation we report on the development status of the SMAP data product algorithms, and the planning and implementation of the SMAP Cal/Val program. Several components of the SMAP algorithm development and Cal/Val plans have commonality with those of SMOS, and for this reason there are shared activities and resources that can be utilized between the missions, including in situ networks, ancillary data sets, and long-term monitoring sites.

Njoku, Eni↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Land Surface Data Toolkit (LDT v7.2) - A Data Fusion Environment for Land Data Assimilation Systems

The effective applications of land surface models (LSMs) and hydrologic models pose a varied set of data input and processing needs, ranging from ensuring consistency checks to more derived data processing and analytics. This article describes the development of the Land surface Data Toolkit (LDT), which is an integrated framework designed specifically for processing input data to execute LSMs and hydrological models. LDT not only serves as a preprocessor to the NASA Land Information System (LIS), which is an integrated framework designed for multi-model LSM simulations and data assimilation (DA) integrations, but also as a land-surface-based observation and DA input processor. It offers a variety of user options and inputs to processing datasets for use within LIS and stand-alone models. The LDT design facilitates the use of common data formats and conventions. LDT is also capable of processing LSM initial conditions and meteorological boundary conditions and ensuring data quality for inputs to LSMs and DA routines. The machine learning layer in LDT facilitates the use of modern data science algorithms for developing data-driven predictive models. Through the use of an object-oriented framework design, LDT provides extensible features for the continued development of support for different types of observational datasets and data analytics algorithms to aid land surface modeling and data assimilation.

droughts and floods↗

NASA NTRS2023

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts↗

NASA NTRS2011

Improved Calibration of Modeled Discharge and Storage Change in the Atchafalaya Floodplain Using SAR Interferometry

This study focuses on the feasibility of using SAR interferometry to support 2D hydrodynamic model calibration and provide water storage change in the floodplain. Two-dimensional (2D) flood inundation modeling has been widely studied using storage cell approaches with the availability of high resolution, remotely sensed floodplain topography. The development of coupled 1D/2D flood modeling has shown improved calculation of 2D floodplain inundation as well as channel water elevation. Most floodplain model results have been validated using remote sensing methods for inundation extent. However, few studies show the quantitative validation of spatial variations in floodplain water elevations in the 2D modeling since most of the gauges are located along main river channels and traditional single track satellite altimetry over the floodplain are limited. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry recently has been proven to be useful for measuring centimeter-scale water elevation changes over the floodplain. In the current study, we apply the LISFLOOD hydrodynamic model to the central Atchafalaya River Basin, Louisiana, during a 62 day period from 1 April to 1 June 2008 using two different calibration schemes for Manning's n. First, the model is calibrated in terms of water elevations from a single in situ gauge that represents a more traditional approach. Due to the gauge location in the channel, the calibration shows more sensitivity to channel roughness relative to floodplain roughness. Second, the model is calibrated in terms of water elevation changes calculated from ALOS PALSAR interferometry during 46 days of the image acquisition interval from 16 April 2008 to 1 June 2009. Since SAR interferometry receives strongly scatters in floodplain due to double bounce effect as compared to specular scattering of open water, the calibration shows more dependency to floodplain roughness. An iterative approach is used to determine the best-fit Manning's n for the two different calibration approaches. Results suggest similar floodplain roughness but slightly different channel roughness. However, application of SAR interferometry provides a unique view of the floodplain flow gradients, not possible with a single gauge calibration. These gradients, allow improved computation of water storage change over the 46-day simulation period. Overall, the results suggest that the use of 2D SAR water elevation changes in the Atchafalaya basin offers improved understanding and modeling of floodplain hydrodynamics.

Jung, Hahn Chul↗

NASA NTRS2017

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

Case. Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface, particularly within weakly-sheared environments such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in land surface and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather over eastern Africa. KMS currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, making use of the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the KMS-WRF runs on a regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMS for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities through new datasets and tools. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR is providing enhanced, experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMS as part of this collaboration. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMS-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of data interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model soil moisture and temperature fields. Additionally, realtime green vegetation fraction (GVF) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi- NPP) satellite will be incorporated into the KMS-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMS using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) package in conjunction with a dynamic scripting package developed by SPoRT (Zavodsky et al. 2014), to help quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. Furthermore, the transition of these MET tools will enable KMS to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This paper presents preliminary efforts to improve land surface model initialization over eastern Africa in support of operations at KMS. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows: The collaborating organizations involved in the project are described in Section 2; background information on LIS and the configuration for eastern Africa is presented in Section 3; the WRF configuration used in this modeling experiment is described in Section 4; sample experimental WRF output with and without LIS initialization data are given in Section 5; a summary is given in Section 6 followed by acknowledgements and references.

Case, Johnathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential. We have analyzed the oxygen isotopic composition of ostrcoda shells formed in the floodwaters of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) and discovered the negative isotopic 1 16 spike. Because we had learned that storm activity has a major impact on the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the tropics and sub-tropics we decided to analyze the isotopic compositions of water vapor in different locations in the tropics. We did this in Puerto Escondido, Mexico in July 1998, near Kwajalein Island in the Pacific in 1999 as part of a TRMM summer field program and in 2001 in Key West, Florida as part of the CAMEX 4 summer field program. Our isotopic studies along with our earlier tropical cyclone studies showed that the low isotopic ratios in water vapor induced by exposure to rains the storms persisted for 48 hours often far away from the original storm site. We also noted that positive isotopic spikes were introduced into atmospheric water vapor if winds were high and extensive sea spray was present. These findings have a significant impact on the interpretation of the stable isotope studies of tropical ice cores found in the high mountain regions of the tropics. The assumption made in interpreting the ice core record is that the source water vapor evaporated from the sea surface is in near isotopic equilibrium with the seawater and undergoes a decrease during its transport that reflects the change in temperature from the sea surface to the site of the ice core. Because an additional isotopic depletion occurs at the sea surface source area that depends on the intensity, duration and size of the tropical rain system the isotopic variations found in the ice cores must take into account changes in past storm activity in the tropics. These systems must be an important source of water vapor to the ice cores because they charge the troposphere with water vapor to a far greater vertical height than evaporation in quiescent regions. Finally, an interest in increased heat transfer in thnterior of tropical cyclones resulting from greater amounts of sea spray is a topic of considerable interest to the research community. Increases in sea spray may be related to rapid changes in the intensity of hurricanes, a feature of hurricanes that currently is very poorly forecast. Project CBLAST of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is an active program that uses P3 research aircraft to evaluate this problem. An instrument has been designed and built at the University of Houston that will be placed on the P3 research aircraft during the 2004 hurricane season. It continuously measures the salt content of rain in hurricanes. Changes in the salt content of the rains should reflect the abundance of sea spray at the sea surface. In this way maps of sea spray intensity in hurricanes may be forthcoming. This should help computer modelers who simulate hurricanes to better understand the potential of changes in sea spray to change the intensity of hurricanes. The cost of designing, building and installing this instrument was borne largely by funding from this NASA grant. A list of presentations at national meetings and publications that were as the result of funding from this NASA grant are found in the report.

Lawrence, James R.↗