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The Virginia Earth System Science Scholars (VESSS) Experience: Inspiring High School Students in Stem Through Mentorship and Collaborative Skills Development

Since 2016, the Virginia Earth System Science Scholars (VESSS) program offered by the Virginia Space Grant Consortium (VSGC) has provided an interactive science, technology, engineering, and mathematics learning experience for Virginia high school juniors and seniors. The VESSS program was created through a partnership with VSGC, NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), and Hampton University to engage students in learning about Earth’s climate change and its global impacts. High school students from all areas of Virginia learn about Earth science and climate change in a 16 week online course focused on the Earth’s surface and interior, atmospheric composition, weather, water energy cycles, and climate variability. Students that complete the online course are invited to a no-cost seven-day residential summer academy at NASA LaRC where students are divided into teams based on four of the major spheres of study for Earth: atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere. Each team is guided by a Master Teacher and teams of undergraduate student interns who were also previous VESSS scholars. Students interview for team positions and are given a role reflecting an actual satellite design team position such as project scientist, research scientist, budget analyst, launch and orbit analyst, contamination analyst, and education and public outreach specialist. The students spend a week mentored by NASA and industry scientists and engineers as they learn how to select science goals and objectives, select science instruments, balance a mission budget, determine the mission launch location and orbit, and communicate the importance of the mission to the public. Each team produces a mission proposal, and at the end of the week, each team presents their portion of the mission to a panel of experts, followed by a question and answer period. Through this week students learn teamwork, communication, time management, meeting management, and research skills. Project work is supplemented by team-building activities, NASA facility tours, and lectures by acclaimed guest speakers such as Dr. Christine Darden, a NASA “Hidden Figure.” Students have conveyed through course evaluations and testimonials not only the vast personal learning and growth they achieved, but also the new perspectives they gained on future STEM career fields and opportunities to explore.

Elaine Seasly↗

A Pilot Project for Quantifying the Effect of Medical Provider Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities on Outcomes for Spaceflight Using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

In order to enable the future of long-duration deep space exploration we must confront the uncertainty in medical risk. Limitations of communication, resupply, and evacuation in deep space will require a high degree of crew autonomy and accurate risk assessment will be critical to ensure adequate crew training and medical system design. To address this, NASA’s Human Research Program Exploration Medical Capability Element has developed the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces Tool (IMPACT). IMPACT is a suite of tools that can provide evidence-based, data-driven trade space assessments between available medical resources in the mass- and volume-constrained environment of a deep space exploration vehicle. In the current model, medical conditions either can or cannot be treated based on the availability of medical system resources and equipment. However, medical outcomes often depend just as much on the knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA) of the provider operating the system. This paper presents a method for modeling and quantifying the effect of medical officer KSA on medically relevant mission risk outcomes during spaceflight.

capabilities↗

Lightning Over Central Canada: Skill Assessment for Various Land-Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices Over a Boreal Study Area

Current lightning predictions are uncertain because they rely on empirical diagnostic relationships and often use coarse-scale climate scenario simulations in which deep convection is parameterized. Previous studies demonstrated that simulations with convection permitting resolutions improve lightning predictions compared to coarser-grid simulations using convection parameterizations for different geographical locations but not over the boreal zone. In this study, lightning simulations with the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model are evaluated over a domain including the Great Slave Lake in Canada, for six lightning seasons. The simulations are performed at convection parameterized (9 km) and convection-permitting (3 km) resolution using the Goddard 4ICE and the Thompson microphysics schemes. Four lightning indices are evaluated against observations from the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, in terms of spatiotemporal frequency distribution, spatial pattern, daily climatology, and an event-based overall skill assessment. The Thompson scheme is, regardless of the spatial resolution, superior to the Goddard 4ICE scheme in predicting daily climatology but worse in predicting the spatial patterns of lightning occurrence. Results indicate that lightning estimation benefits from modeling at convection-permitting resolution, in particular for the ice based lightning indices. In contrast, the product of convective available potential energy and precipitation rate proved to be the most robust index that was largely invariant to varying spatial resolution. Finally, this study reveals issues of the models to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of lightning well, which might be related to an insufficient representation of land surface heterogeneity, including peatlands, in the study area.

Jonas Mortelmans↗

Statistical Analysis of Recent Go Around Flight Data to Study and Evaluate Skilled Pilot Monitoring

A statistical analysis was performed on a batch of recent go-around flight data of a few major US airlines spanning a one year period. The statistical analysis investigates a few select relevant aspects of these go arounds, such as initiation altitude and altitude change, aircraft configuration, deviation from the flightpath, and energy state. These data show that only one third of the landings are aborted below 400ft, but the majority of the go arounds occur at significantly higher altitudes. Current go-around training is specifically focused on the final approach and landing phase at low altitudes and low speeds. The results of this study will support the development of a broader set of relevant scenarios for an FAA simulator experiment to study and evaluate the skills of the pilots who monitor this wide spectrum of diverse go-around conditions, with the ultimate goal to help improve pilot go-around training and technologies.

go around↗

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of AIRS Cloud Cleared Radiances RiCC

ECMWF, NCEP, and GMAO routinely assimilate radiosonde and other in-situ observations along with satellite IR and MW Sounder radiance observations. NCEP and GMAO use the NCEP GSI Data Assimilation System (DAS).GSI DAS assimilates AIRS, CrIS, IASI channel radiances Ri on a channel-by-channel, case-by-case basis, only for those channels i thought to be unaffected by cloud cover. This test excludes Ri for most tropospheric sounding channels under partial cloud cover conditions. AIRS Version-6 RiCC is a derived quantity representative of what AIRS channel i would have seen if the AIRS FOR were cloud free. All values of RiCC have case-by-case error estimates RiCC associated with them. Our experiments present to the GSI QCd values of AIRS RiCC in place of AIRS Ri observations. GSI DAS assimilates only those values of RiCC it thinks are cloud free. This potentially allows for better coverage of assimilated QCd values of RiCC as compared to Ri.

Forecast Skill↗

Quantifying UAS Observation Error Variance Used in Data Assimilation Systems and Its Impact on Predictive Skill

Observation error determines the weights of the observations and background state used in data assimilation to generate analyses. Quantifying observation error is critical for the optimal assimilation of observational data sets. Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations have shown potential benefits in filling observational gaps in the lower atmosphere; however, characterization of their error characteristics has been limited. To optimize the use of UAS observations in numerical weather prediction, UAS observation error is estimated based on the 3‐cornered hat diagnostic approach which uses three independent estimates of the atmospheric state. This approach is applied to data from the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation‐a Remotely‐piloted Aircraft Team Experiment field campaign using collocated UAS and rawinsonde observations along with output from a set of convection‐permitting model simulations. The estimated observation error values for UAS temperature, wind, and relative humidity measurements were found to be only weakly dependent on height AGL with mean values equal to 0.5°C, 0.8 m s −1 , and 3%, respectively. Only the newly estimated observation error for temperature differed from that previously used to assimilate commercial aircraft observations into global models (1.0°C). However, using this reduced temperature observation error produced more accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of both terrain‐driven flows and convection initiation generated by colliding outflow boundaries within the San Luis Valley of Colorado.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Doppler-Lidar Evaluation of HRRR-Model Skill at Simulating Summertime Wind Regimes in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP2

Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppler lidars deployed during WFIP2 define and characterize summertime wind regimes and their large-scale contexts, and provide insight into NWP model errors by examining differences in the ability of a model [NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR-version1)] to forecast wind-speed profiles for different regimes. Seven regimes were identified based on daily time series of the lidar-measured rotor-layer winds, which then suggested two broad categories. First, in three regimes the primary dynamic forcing was the large-scale pressure gradient. Second, in two regimes the dominant forcing was the diurnal heating-cooling cycle (regional sea-breeze-type dynamics), including the marine intrusion previously described, which generates strong nocturnal winds over the region. The other two included a hybrid regime and a non-conforming regime. For the large-scale pressure-gradient regimes, HRRR had wind-speed biases of ~1 m s -1 and RMSEs of 2-3 m s -1 . Errors were much larger for the thermally forced regimes, owing to the premature demise of the strong nocturnal flow in HRRR. Thus, the more dominant the role of surface heating in generating the flow, the larger the errors. Major errors could result from surface heating of the atmosphere, boundary-layer responses to that heating, and associated terrain interactions. Finally, measurement/modeling research programs should be aimed at determining which modeled processes produce the largest errors, so those processes can be improved and errors reduced.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Trait Vs. Skill: Individual Differences -- Survey Questions

This document is UUR survey questions for use in an exploratory express LDRD experiment. The purpose of the study is to understand if people overestimate their performance only in some situations or some people are more prone to it do to an underlying trait. To investigate our aims, we must use 3 experimental tasks: two domain general (an English grammar task a logic task) and a domain specific task (a science & technology questionnaire). The reason we are using these tasks is to see if people overestimate their abilities on tasks they are more familiar with (grammar and logic) but not on domains in which they are more specialized (science and technology). To understand the traits and characteristics of our participants, we are using 7 well-validated assessments from the field of psychology. All questionnaires are available for research and teaching purposes. Citations for all materials have been included.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Developing Metrics to Evaluate the Skill and Credibility of Downscaling

Major activities for this project consisted of three related elements: Comparing results using statistical downscaling to the dynamical downscaling performed by the UCLA (Dr. Alex Hall) team in the proposal Developing statistical downscaling methods for wind and near-surface humidity Evaluating differences in extremes across downscaling methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Co-Evolving Climate Models under Uncertainty to Improve Predictive Skill

Focal Area: Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models Science Challenge: Advances in modeling of climate and improved observational capabilities have led to great improvements in understanding large-scale historical climate effects. It however remains a challenge to reliably predict the risk of fine-scale regional climate events on human systems even as such risks are on the rise because warmer and wetter climates are more prone to hydrometeorological extremes,

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Addressing Skilled Worker Shortages with Registered Apprenticeships

This poster will provider the learner with information about the US apprenticeship system, the benefits of registered apprenticeships to employers and their workers, and how to go about starting an apprenticeship program to train workers in a wide variety of job roles in the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗