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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Global ozone - Solar activity relationship from satellite measurements

Global ozone variations are evaluated by analyzing satellite measurements, using the technique of integrating out dynamical effects causing large variations in total ozone at individual locations. Analysis of Nimbus 4 reprocessed BUV data was extended to cover the period from April 1970 through December 1975. Temporal and latitudinal variation of biases and yearly change in global biases between the satellite and ground based ozone measurements are indicated. The bias-corrected 6-month-running filtered global means are shown, and the correlation coefficient between ozone and the solar activity index remains high at 0.94. It is concluded that the results give a strong indication of an ozone-solar activity relationship that is caused by solar UV variability.

Keating, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Prominences: The Key to Understanding Solar Activity

Prominences are spectacular manifestations of both quiescent and eruptive solar activity. The largest examples can be seen with the naked eye during eclipses, making prominences among the first solar features to be described and catalogued. Steady improvements in temporal and spatial resolution from both ground- and space-based instruments have led us to recognize how complex and dynamic these majestic structures really are. Their distinguishing characteristics - cool knots and threads suspended in the hot corona, alignment along inversion lines in the photospheric magnetic field within highly sheared filament channels, and a tendency to disappear through eruption - offer vital clues as to their origin and dynamic evolution. Interpreting these clues has proven to be contentious, however, leading to fundamentally different models that address the basic questions: What is the magnetic structure supporting prominences, and how does so much cool, dense plasma appear in the corona? Despite centuries of increasingly detailed observations, the magnetic and plasma structures in prominences are poorly known. Routine measurements of the vector magnetic field in and around prominences have become possible only recently, while long-term monitoring of the underlying filament-channel formation process also remains scarce. The process responsible for prominence mass is equally difficult to establish, although we have long known that the chromosphere is the only plausible source. As I will discuss, however, the motions and locations of prominence material can be used to trace the coronal field, thus defining the magnetic origins of solar eruptions. A combination of observations, theory, and numerical modeling must be used to determine whether any of the competing theories accurately represents the physics of prominences. I will discuss the criteria for a successful prominence model, compare the leading models, and present in detail one promising, comprehensive scenario for prominence formation and evolution that could answer the two questions posed above.

Karpen, Judy T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Evidence for Day-to-Night Ion Transport at Low Solar Activity in the Venus Pre-Dawn Ionosphere

Periapsis of the Pioneer Venus spacecraft dropped below 180 km on August 28, 1992 near midnight, and 42 orbits of low altitude data at moderately low solar activity in the pre-dawn sector were obtained before contact was lost to the spacecraft in October, 1992. Through a combination of analysis of data from the PV orbiter ion mass spectrometer (OIMS) and modeling, we consider here what can be learned about the relative importance of plasma transport from the dayside and electron precipitation in maintaining the nightside ionosphere during the re-entry period. In particular, we examine here the atomic ion density profiles. We compute the average peak density of O(+) as a function of solar zenith angle and determine what fluxes of atomic ions or precipitating electrons would be necessary to produce those values. We then compare model calculations of the ion densities to those observed during the re-entry period. We find that the low solar activity nightside ionosphere shows evidence of significant day-to-night plasma transport.

Brannon, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Solar activity and the weather

Some evidence that the weather is influenced by solar activity is reviewed. It appears that the solar magnetic sector structure is related to the circulation of the earth's atmosphere during local winter. About 31/2 days after the passage of a sector boundary the maximum effect is seen: apparently the height of all pressure surfaces increases in high latitudes leading to anticyclogenesis, whereas at midlatitudes the height of the pressure surfaces decreases leading to low pressure systems or to deepening of existing systems. This later effect is clearly seen as an increase in the area of the base of air with absolute vorticity exceeding a given threshold. Since the increase of geomagnetic activity generally is small at a sector boundary, it is speculated that geomagnetic activity as such is not the cause of the response to the sector structure, but that both weather and geomagnetic activity are influenced by the same (unknown) mechanism.

Svalgaard, L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

A solar activity monitoring platform for SCADM

The adaptation of proven space probe technology is proposed as a means of providing a solar activity monitoring platform which could be injected behind the Earth's orbital position to give 3 to 6 days advanced coverage of the solar phenomenon on the backside hemisphere before it rotates into view and affects terrestrial activities. The probe would provide some three dimensional discrimination within the ecliptic latitude. This relatively simple off-Earth probe could provide very high quality data to support the SCADM program, by transmitting both high resolution video data of the solar surface and such measurements of solar activity as particle, X-ray, ultraviolet, and radio emission fluxes. Topics covered include the orbit; constraints on the spacecraft; subsystems and their embodiments; optical imaging sensors and their operation; and the radiation-pressure attitude control system are described. The platform would be capable of mapping active regions on an hourly basis with one arc-second resolution.

Kissell, K. E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Evidence for day-to-night ion transport at low solar activity in the Venus pre-dawn ionosphere

Periapsis of the Pioneer Venus (PV) spacecraft dropped below 180 km on August 28, 1992 near midnight, and 42 orbits of low altitude data at moderately low solar activity in the pre-dawn sector were obtained before contact was lost to the spacecraft in October, 1992. Through a combination of analysis of data from the PV orbiter ion mass spectrometer (OIMS) and modeling, we consider here what can be learned about the relative importance of plasma transport from the dayside and electron precipitation in maintaining the nightside ionosphere during the re-entry period. In particular, we examine here the atomic ion density profiles. We compute the average peak density of O(+) as a function of solar zenith angle and determine what fluxes of atomic ions or precipitating electrons would be necessary to produce those values. We then compare model calculations of the ion densities to those observed during the re-entry period. We find that the low solar activity nightside ionosphere shows evidence of significant day-to-night plasma transport.

Brannon, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Evidence for Day-to-Night Ion Transport at Low Solar Activity in the Venus Pre-Dawn Ionosphere

Periapsis of the Pioneer Venus spacecraft 2 dropped below 180 km on August 28, 1992 near midnight, and 42 orbits of low altitude data at moderately low solar activity in the pre-dawn sector were obtained before contact was lost to the spacecraft in October, 1992. Through a combination of analysis of data from the PV orbiter ion mass spectrometer (OIMS) and modeling, we consider here what can be learned about the relative importance of plasma transport from the dayside and electron precipitation in maintaining the nightside ionosphere during the re-entry period. In particular, we examine here the atomic ion density profiles. We compute the average peak density of O(+) as a function of solar zenith angle and determine what fluxes of atomic ions or precipitating electrons would he necessary to produce those values. We then compare model calculations of the ion densities to those observed during the re-entry period. We find that the low solar activity nightside ionosphere shows evidence of significant day-to-night plasma transport.

Brannon, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar activity and modulation of the cosmic ray intensity

Since its discovery by Forbush (1954), the 11-year cycle modulation of the cosmic ray intensity has been studied extensively. Bowe and Hatton (1982) obtained a well-behaved transfer function F between the solar activity S and the cosmic ray intensity modulation Io-I. They suggested that the 11-year variation for sunspot cycle 20 can be attributed to the modulating effect of solar flare-induced shocks propagating through the heliosphere. The cosmic ray intensity in the absence of solar activity is denoted by Io, while I denotes the observed intensity. Bowe and Hatton infer that the boundary of the heliosphere is located at a distance of 70-90 AU. Since their conclusion is of great importance in understanding the mechanism of the 11-year modulation, the present investigation is concerned with a repetition of their study for two cycles, taking into account the use of a slightly modified method. The obtained results confirm the conclusions reached by Bowe and Hatton that there is a well-behaved transfer function for solar flares.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Long-Term Persistence of Solar Activity

We examine the question of whether or not the non-periodic Variations in solar activity are caused by a white-noise random process. The Hurst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series, is evaluated for the series 14C Data for the time interval from about 6000BC to 1950 AD.

Solar↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity cycles by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Synergy↗
NASA NTRS1980

Solar activity prediction of sunspot numbers (verification). Predicted solar radio flux; predicted geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp

Efforts to further verify a previously reported technique for predicting monthly sunspot numbers over a period of years (1979 to 1989) involved the application of the technique over the period for the maximum epoch of solar cycle 19. Results obtained are presented. Methods and results for predicting solar flux (F10.7 cm) based on flux/sunspot number models, ascent and descent, and geomagnetic activity indices as a function of sunspot number and solar cycle phase classes are included.

Newman, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

Lundquist, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Satellite measurements of ion composition and temperatures in the topside ionosphere during medium solar activity

Information on both ion density and temperature is obtained from analysis of Retarding Potential Analyzer data from the OGO-4 and Explorer-31 satellites. Results obtained from data in the altitude range of 700-2000 km during medium solar activity are presented. An attempt is made to describe the major altitude variations of ion densities and temperatures at middle and low latitudes. The transition heights, where the heavier and lighter ions are equal, are found to be about 1600 and 1300 km at middle and low latitudes, respectively, for daytime and 700 km at night for middle latitudes. Based on the observed data and using diffusive equilibrium as a first-order approximation, topside ionospheric composition models are given for medium solar activity.

Goel, M. K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The role of predicted solar activity in TOPEX/Poseidon orbit maintenance maneuver design

Following launch in June 1992, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite will be placed in a near-circular frozen orbit at an altitude of about 1336 km. Orbit maintenance maneuvers are planned to assure all nodes of the 127-orbit 10-day repeat ground track remain within a 2 km equatorial longitude bandwidth. Orbit determination, maneuver execution, and atmospheric drag prediction errors limit overall targeting performance. This paper focuses on the effects of drag modeling errors, with primary emphasis on the role of SESC solar activity predictions, especially the 27-day outlook of the 10.7 cm solar flux and geomagnetic index used by a simplified version of the Jacchia-Roberts density model developed for this TOPEX/Poseidon application. For data evaluated from 1983-90, the SESC outlook performed better than a simpler persistence strategy, especially during the first 7-10 days. A targeting example illustrates the use of ground track biasing to compensate for expected orbit predictions errors, emphasizing the role of solar activity prediction errors.

Frauenholz, Raymond B.↗