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NASA NTRS2007

A Survey of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1996 - 2007

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections, the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections at the Sun, are the major drivers of interplanetary shocks in the heliosphere, and are associated with modulations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity, both short term (Forbush decreases caused by the passage of the shock, post-shock sheath, and ICME) and possibly with longer term modulation. Using several in-situ signatures of ICMEs, including plasma temperature, and composition, magnetic fields, and cosmic ray modulations, made by near-Earth spacecraft, we have compiled a "comprehensive" list of ICMEs passing the Earth since 1996, encompassing solar cycle 23. We summarize the properties of these ICMEs, such as their occurrence rate, speeds, association with solar energetic particle events, shocks and cosmic ray decreases.

Richardson, Ian↗
NASA NTRS2007

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1996 - 2007

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections, the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections at the Sun, are the major drivers of interplanetary shocks in the heliosphere, and are associated with modulations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity, both short term (Forbush decreases caused by the passage of the shock, post-shock sheath, and ICME), and possibly with longer term modulation. Using several in-situ signatures of ICMEs, including plasma temperature, and composition, magnetic fields, and cosmic ray modulations, made by near-Earth spacecraft, we have compiled a "comprehensive" list of ICMEs passing the Earth since 1996, encompassing solar cycle 23. We summarize the properties of these ICMEs, such as their occurrence rate, speeds and other parameters, the fraction of ICMEs that are classic magnetic clouds, and their association with solar energetic particle events, halo CMEs, interplanetary shocks, geomagnetic storms, shocks and cosmic ray decreases.

Richardson, I. G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Heliospheric Physics and NASA's Vision for Space Exploration

The Vision for Space Exploration outlines NASA's development of a new generation of human-rated launch vehicles to replace the Space Shuttle and an architecture for exploring the Moon and Mars. The system--developed by the Constellation Program--includes a near term (approx. 2014) capability to provide crew and cargo service to the International Space Station after the Shuttle is retired in 2010 and a human return to the Moon no later than 2020. Constellation vehicles and systems will necessarily be required to operate efficiently, safely, and reliably in the space plasma and radiation environments of low Earth orbit, the Earth's magnetosphere, interplanetary space, and on the lunar surface. This presentation will provide an overview of the characteristics of space radiation and plasma environments relevant to lunar programs including the trans-lunar injection and trans-Earth injection trajectories through the Earth's radiation belts, solar wind surface dose and plasma wake charging environments in near lunar space, energetic solar particle events, and galactic cosmic rays and discusses the design and operational environments being developed for lunar program requirements to assure that systems operate successfully in the space environment.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Real-Time CME Forecasting Using HMI Active-Region Magnetograms and Flare History

We have recently developed a method of predicting an active region s probability of producing a CME, an X-class Flare, an M-class Flare, or a Solar Energetic Particle Event from a free-energy proxy measured from SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. This year we have added three major improvements to our forecast tool: 1) Transition from MDI magnetogram to SDO/HMI magnetogram allowing us near-real-time forecasts, 2) Automation of acquisition and measurement of HMI magnetograms giving us near-real-time forecasts (no older than 2 hours), and 3) Determination of how to improve forecast by using the active region s previous flare history in combination with its free-energy proxy. HMI was turned on in May 2010 and MDI was turned off in April 2011. Using the overlap period, we have calibrated HMI to yield what MDI would measure. This is important since the value of the free-energy proxy used for our forecast is resolution dependent, and the forecasts are made from results of a 1996-2004 database of MDI observations. With near-real-time magnetograms from HMI, near-real-time forecasts are now possible. We have augmented the code so that it continually acquires and measures new magnetograms as they become available online, and updates the whole-sun forecast from the coming day. The next planned improvement is to use an active region s previous flare history, in conjunction with its free-energy proxy, to forecast the active region s event rate. It has long been known that active regions that have produced flares in the past are likely to produce flares in the future, and that active regions that are nonpotential (have large free-energy) are more likely to produce flares in the future. This year we have determined that persistence of flaring is not just a reflection of an active region s free energy. In other words, after controlling for free energy, we have found that active regions that have flared recently are more likely to flare in the future.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS2011

Modeling Mission-Specific Worst-Case Solar Energetic Particle Environments

To plan and design safe and reliable space missions, it is necessary to take into account the effects of the space radiation environment. The environment during large solar energetic particle events poses the greatest challenge to missions. As a starting point for planning and design, a reference environment must be specified representing the most challenging environment to be encountered during the mission at some confidence level. The engineering challenge is then to find plans and mission design solutions that insure safe and reliable operations in this reference environment. This paper describes progress toward developing a model that provides such reference space radiation environments at user-specified confidence levels.

Adam, James H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

CME Interaction with Large-Scale Coronal Structures

This talk presents some key observations that highlight the importance of CME interaction with other large scale structures such as CMEs and coronal holes . Such interactions depend on the phase of the solar cycle: during maximum, CMEs are ejected more frequently, so CME-CME interaction becomes dominant. During the rise phase, the polar coronal holes are strong, so the interaction between polar coronal holes and CMEs is important, which also leads to a possible increase in the number of interplanetary CMEs observed as magnetic clouds. During the declining phase, there are more equatorial coronal holes, so CMEs originating near these coronal holes are easily deflected. CMEs can be deflected toward and away from the Sun-Earth line resulting in interesting geospace consequences. For example, the largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 was due to a CME that was deflected towards the Sun-earth line from E22. CME deflection away from the Sun-Earth line diminishes the chance of a CME producing a geomagnetic storm. CME interaction in the coronagraphic field of view was first identified using enhanced radio emission, which is an indication of acceleration of low energy (approx.10 keV) electrons in the interaction site. CME interaction, therefore, may also have implications for proton acceleration. For example, solar energetic particle events typically occur with a higher intensity, whenever multiple CMEs occur in quick succession from the same source region. CME deflection may also have implications to the arrival of energetic particles to earth because magnetic connectivity may be changed by the interaction. I illustrate the above points using examples from SOHO, STEREO, Wind, and ACE data .

Gopalswarny, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2012

Real Time Space Weather Support for Chandra X-ray Observatory Operations

NASA launched the Chandra X-ray Observatory in July 1999. Soon after first light in August 1999, however, degradation in the energy resolution and charge transfer efficiency of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) x-ray detectors was observed. The source of the degradation was quickly identified as radiation damage in the charge-transfer channel of the front-illuminated CCDs, by weakly penetrating ("soft", 100-500 keV) protons as Chandra passed through the Earth s radiation belts and ring currents. As soft protons were not considered a risk to spacecraft health before launch, the only on-board radiation monitoring system is the Electron, Proton, and Helium Instrument (EPHIN) which was included on Chandra with the primary purpose of monitoring energetic solar particle events. Further damage to the ACIS detector has been successfully mitigated through a combination of careful mission planning, autonomous on-board radiation protection, and manual intervention based upon real-time monitoring of the soft-proton environment. The AE-8 and AP-8 trapped radiation models and Chandra Radiation Models are used to schedule science operations in regions of low proton flux. EPHIN has been used as the primary autonomous in-situ radiation trigger; but, it is not sensitive to the soft protons that damage the front-illuminated CCDs. Monitoring of near-real-time space weather data sources provides critical information on the proton environment outside the Earth's magnetosphere due to solar proton events and other phenomena. The operations team uses data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to provide near-real-time monitoring of the proton environment; however, these data do not give a representative measure of the soft-proton (less than 1 MeV) flux in Chandra s high elliptical orbit. The only source of relevant measurements of sub-MeV protons is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) aboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite at L1, with real-time data provided by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. This presentation will discuss radiation mitigation against proton damage, including models and real-time data sources used to protect the ACIS detector system.

O'Dell, Stephen L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Real Time Space Weather Support for Chandra X-Ray Observatory Operations

NASA launched the Chandra X-ray Observatory in July 1999. Soon after first light in August 1999, however, degradation in the energy resolution and charge transfer efficiency of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) x-ray detectors was observed. The source of the degradation was quickly identified as radiation damage in the charge-transfer channel of the front-illuminated CCDs, by weakly penetrating ( soft , 100 500 keV) protons as Chandra passed through the Earth s radiation belts and ring currents. As soft protons were not considered a risk to spacecraft health before launch, the only on-board radiation monitoring system is the Electron, Proton, and Helium Instrument (EPHIN) which was included on Chandra with the primary purpose of monitoring energetic solar particle events. Further damage to the ACIS detector has been successfully mitigated through a combination of careful mission planning, autonomous on-board radiation protection, and manual intervention based upon real-time monitoring of the soft-proton environment. The AE-8 and AP-8 trapped radiation models and Chandra Radiation Models are used to schedule science operations in regions of low proton flux. EPHIN has been used as the primary autonomous in-situ radiation trigger; but, it is not sensitive to the soft protons that damage the front-illuminated CCDs. Monitoring of near-real-time space weather data sources provides critical information on the proton environment outside the Earth s magnetosphere due to solar proton events and other phenomena. The operations team uses data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to provide near-real-time monitoring of the proton environment; however, these data do not give a representative measure of the soft-proton (< 1 MeV) flux in Chandra s high elliptical orbit. The only source of relevant measurements of sub-MeV protons is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) aboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite at L1, with real-time data provided by NOAA s Space Weather Prediction Center. This presentation describes the radiation mitigation strategies to minimize the proton damage in the ACIS CCD detectors and the importance of real-time data sources that are used to protect the ACIS detector system from space weather events.

O'Dell, Stephen L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS2014

MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events. MAG4 does not forecast that a flare will occur at a particular time in the next 24 or 48 hours; rather the probability of one occurring.

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2014

Computation of Cosmic Ray Ionization and Dose at Mars: a Comparison of HZETRN and Planetocosmics for Proton and Alpha Particles

The ability to evaluate the cosmic ray environment at Mars is of interest for future manned exploration. To support exploration, tools must be developed to accurately access the radiation environment in both free space and on planetary surfaces. The primary tool NASA uses to quantify radiation exposure behind shielding materials is the space radiation transport code, HZETRN. In order to build confidence in HZETRN, code benchmarking against Monte Carlo radiation transport codes is often used. This work compares the dose calculations at Mars by HZETRN and the Geant4 application Planetocosmics. The dose at ground and the energy deposited in the atmosphere by galactic cosmic ray protons and alpha particles has been calculated for the Curiosity landing conditions. In addition, this work has considered Solar Energetic Particle events, allowing for the comparison of varying input radiation environments. The results for protons and alpha particles show very good agreement between HZETRN and Planetocosmics.

Gronoff, Guillaume↗
NASA NTRS2017

Nightside Ionosphere of Mars: Composition, Vertical Structure, and Variability

We provide an overview of the composition, vertical structure, and variability of the nightside ionosphere of Mars as observed by Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN)'s Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NGIMS) through 19 months of the MAVEN mission. We show that O+2 is the most abundant ion down to ∼130 km at all nightside solar zenith angles (SZA). However, below 130 km NO+ is the most abundant ion, and NO+ densities increase with decreasing altitude down to at least 120 km. We also show how the densities of the major ions decrease with SZA across the terminator. At lower altitudes the O+2 and CO+2 densities decrease more rapidly with SZA than the NO+ and HCO+ densities, which changes the composition of the ionosphere from being primarily O+2 on the dayside to being a mixture of O+2, NO+, and HCO+ on the nightside. These variations are in accord with the expected ion-neutral chemistry, because both NO+ and HCO+ have long chemical lifetimes. Additionally, we present median ion density profiles from three different nightside SZA ranges, including deep on the nightside at SZAs greater than 150∘ and discuss how they compare to particle precipitation models. Finally, we show that nightside ion densities can vary by nearly an order of magnitude over month long timescales. The largest nightside densities were observed at high northern latitudes during winter and coincided with a major solar energetic particle event.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2019

Properties of DH Type II Radio Bursts and Their Space Weather Implications

We report on the properties of type II radio bursts observed by the Radio and Plasma Wave Experiment (WAVES) onboard the Wind spacecraft over the past two solar cycles. We confirm that the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are fast and wide, more than half the CMEs being halos. About half of the type II bursts extend down to 0.5M hertz, corresponding to a heliocentric distance of tens of solar radii. The DH (Decametric-Hectometric) type II bursts are mostly confined to the active region belt and their occurrence rate follows the solar activity cycle. Type II bursts occurring on the western hemisphere of the Sun and extending to lower frequencies are good indicators of a solar energetic particle event.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NAIRAS Model Updates

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Aviation Radiation↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Compact Electron-Proton Spectrometer for Moon / Mars Surface Space Weather Monitoring and Crew Protection (CEPS)

Small mass/low-power sensors are needed for autonomous Moon/Mars surface ops that provide alerts to impending adverse space weather conditions. In order to use current operational forecasting tools, a sensor capable of measuring both high-energy electrons and protons is needed. By combining high-TRL Timepix technology with a CdTe layer, this project leverages known technology to fill a critical gap for surface operations. Typical space weather sensors are at least an order of magnitude higher in mass than is expected from Timepix-based devices and are deployed on robotic assets away from human crews. High fidelity measurements at the crew location and subsequent ability are needed to provide warnings to crews to shelter with a device that can easily be carried on the Lunar and Martian surfaces.​ The aim of this project is the development of compact, low power space weather sensors for crew protection based on the combination of AES flight heritage Timepix hardware with novel CdTe (Cadmium Telluride) sensors. CdTe technology has only recently matured to a point where it can be reliably used with Timepix detectors. These detectors will be able to measure electron spectra in an energy range relevant to the RELEASE model, which is used operationally by NASA to provide crew early warning of Solar Energetic Particle Events as well as protons in the energy ranges relevant to human health allowing for event ‘nowcasting’ and total event crew dose prediction. Compared to existing solutions these detectors will be compact enough to travel with crew, providing a significant advantage to space environment situation awareness. Project results indicate that CdTe-based Timepix sensors respond well to energetic electrons, and particle tracks are sufficiently distinct to be able to measure in a mixed radiation field. Thermal testing results point to a needed design modification to mitigate high temperatures the detector will see in space. Radiation susceptibility testing was conducted to assess the radiation hardness of the CdTe-Timepix assembly. Overall, the assembly continued to operate up to 100 kRad of gamma-ray exposure. The system calibration did show drift over time but recovered once exposure was complete.

Dan James Fry↗
NASA NTRS2022

Preferential Acceleration of Heavy Ions in a Spontaneously Fragmenting Flare Current Sheet

We study the ion acceleration in a mesoscale, spontaneously fragmenting flare current sheet (SFCS) characterized by the presence of a plasmoid cascade. The main subject of our investigation is to determine whether and how plasmoid cascades at intermediate scales in a fragmented current sheet of a solar flare can impact the (preferential) acceleration of specific ions. The time evolution of the SFCS is obtained from high-resolution 2.5D MHD simulations. The ion trajectories (in the background fields resulting from the MHD model), energies, and pitch angles are calculated using a relativistic test-particle code based on the half-acceleration–rotation–half-acceleration method. For light ions, the main acceleration effects of electromagnetic fields within the SFCS are analyzed using the guiding center approximation. We identify regions with the most-efficient ion acceleration within the SFCS, the accelerator efficiency, and spectra of the accelerated ions. The influence of the charge-to-mass ratio on ion behavior is also studied and resulting ion abundances are compared with observational data. The main ion acceleration takes place in the regions with a strong polarization term, which is part of the first-order Fermi acceleration. Because the term is mass dependent, heavier ions undergo preferential acceleration. The ion energy spectra, abundance-enhancement factors, and differential fluxes, obtained from the model, exhibit power-law profiles, in agreement with observed solar energetic particle events. Nonetheless, the obtained slopes for the abundance-enhancement factor do not exactly match the observed data. The computed slopes and profiles are not sensitive to changes in the initial plasma temperature.

David Kramoliš↗