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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
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NASA NTRS1993

Solar cycle 21 effects on the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and related parameters at 0.7 and 1.0 AU

Magnetometer data obtained over the course of the previous solar cycle by the Pioneer Venus orbiter at about 0.7 AU and IMP 8 at 1.0 AU are used to compare the long-term behavior of the IMF at these two heliocentric distances. Similarities include an enhancement in the typical or median field magnitude during the declining phase of the solar cycle (as compared to solar maximum or minimum), slight decreases in the Parker spiral angle from the declining phase through solar minimum, similar trends in the Alfvenic and magnetosonic Mach numbers, and a remarkably consistent sector structure. Differences include the temporal behavior of the high-field tail of the field distribution, showing that high fields are most frequently observed during solar maximum at the Earth but during the declining phase of activity at Venus. This feature suggests that the perceived occurrence history of large fields from transient disturbances such as coronal mass ejections is a sensitive function of position within the heliosphere.

Luhmann, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An investigation of the solar cycle response of odd-nitrogen in the thermosphere

This annual report covers the first year of funding for the study of the solar cycle variations of odd-nitrogen (N((sup 2)D), N((sup 4)S), NO) in the Earth's thermosphere. The study uses the extensive data base generated by the Atmosphere Explorer (AE) satellites, and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer Satellite. The AE data are being used, for the first time, to define the solar variability effect on the odd-nitrogen species through analysis of the emissions at 520 nano-m from N((sup 2)D) and the emission from O(+)((sup 2)P). Additional AE neutral and ion density data are used to help define and quantify the physical processes controlling the variations. The results from the airglow study will be used in the next two years of this study to explain the solar cycle changes in NO measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer.

Rusch, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Ground-Level Solar Cosmic Ray Data from Solar Cycle 19

The purpose of this grant was to locate, catalog, and assemble, in standard computer format, ground-level solar cosmic ray data acquired by cosmic ray detectors for selected events in the 19th solar cycle. The events for which we initially proposed to obtain these data were for the events of 23 February 1956,4 May 1960, 12 and 15 November 1960 and 18 and 20 July 1961. These were the largest events of the 19th solar cycle. However, a severe (more than 50%) reduction in the requested funding, required the work effort be limited to neutron monitor data for the 23 February 1956 event and the three major events in 1960.

Shea, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar cycle dependence of the location of the Venus bow shock

Initial measurements of the Venus bow shock obtained by Pioneer Venus in 1979 near solar maximum indicated that the bow shock was on average 2.44 RV from the center of the planet in the terminator plane. This is 0.35 RV further from Venus than observed by Venera 9/10 in 1976. In the past this discrepancy has been attributed to some effect of the solar cycle. Recent measurements by Pioneer Venus support this interpretation. In 1980 the distance to the bow shock reached a maximum of 2.45 RV and since then has been almost steadily declining toward the distance measured by Venera near solar minimum. The variation in bow shock position is well correlated with the sunspot number and the F 10.7 cm flux over this period. This behavior is attributed to the variation in the neutral atmosphere of Venus with the solar cycle and its subsequent effect on the mass-loading of the solar wind.

Alexander, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar Cycle Modulation of Total Irradiance: an Empirical Model from 1874 to 1988

Evidence acquired during the past decade indicates that over time scales of the solar cycle, enhanced emission from bright solar faculae cause significant variations in the sun's total irradiance even though, on shorter time scales, the most pronounced variations are those resulting from the passage of dark sunspots across the solar disc. An empirical model which accounts for the competing effects of dark sunspots and bright faculae has been developed from the available radiometry in cycle 21, and extended back to the beginning of solar cycle 12. According to this model, the largest 11-year modulation of total irradiance during the C20th occurred in the most recent cycle 21.

Lean, J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Large Scale Flows through the Solar Cycle

Large scale flows within the solar convection zone are the primary drivers of the Sun's magnetic activity cycle. Differential rotation amplifies the magnetic field and converts poloidal fields into toroidal fields. Poleward meridional flow near the surface carries magnetic flux that reverses the magnetic poles and converts toroidal fields into poloidal fields. The deeper, equatorward meridional flow carries magnetic flux toward the equator where it must reconnect with oppositely directed fields in the other hemisphere. These axisymmetric flows are themselves driven by large scale convective motions. Given these intimate connections between the large scale flows and solar activity, it would be surprising if there weren't solar cycle variations in the flow characteristics. Some variations, namely the torsional oscillations, are well established. Other variations, namely changes in the meridional flow and in the convective motions themselves, are more controversial. In this presentation I will describe the observed characteristics of the large scale flows and discuss possible variations associated with the solar cycle.

Hathaway, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Solar cycle variations in H(+) and D(+) densities in the Venus ionosphere - Implications for escape

The hydrogen ion concentrations recently observed on Venus, near solar minimum, by the Ion Mass Spectrometer on the Pioneer Venus Orbiter in the anti-solar sector of the ionosphere are more than an order of magnitude less than those previously observed at solar maximum. This strong solar cycle variation has a profound effect on the escape of hydrogen (and deuterium) from Venus; almost all escape occurs during solar maximum. After adjustment for solar cycle variation, a planet-averaged hydrogen escape flux of 0.6-1.4 x 10 exp 7/sq cm per sec is obtained along with a large deuterium fractionation factor of 0.1-0.14. These results suggest at least two plausible scenarios for the evolution of water on Venus: (1) water vapor on Venus may be approaching a steady state if the escape flux is balanced by endogenous sources of water or (2) the present day D/H ratio of 0.024 could be established by Rayleigh fractionation of an early low D/H water reservoir if the escape flux was sufficiently large in earlier times. An early water endowment at least 340 times today's abundance would be needed.

Donahue, Thomas M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Major Space Weather Events during the Weak Solar Cycle 24

We report on the level of solar activity during cycles 23 and 24 as the cycles build toward the corresponding solar maxima. The prolonged minimum period that followed solar cycle 23 and the weaker magnetic field at the poles seem to have resulted in a weaker level of activity during cycle 24. The double speak structure often observed in the maximum phases seems to be present during cycle 24, with the first peak having a sunspot number of only N90. large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, major geomagnetic storms, and radio-emitting interplanetary shocks have been observed in relatively sma:ier numbers. While the number of large SEP events during the rise phase of cycles 24 is not too different from that of cycle 23, they are generally less intense. Five ground level enhancement (GlE) events occurred up to the first activity peak in cycle 23, while a lone GlE event has been observed during the corresponding phase in cycle 24. There were 35 large (Dst S -100 nT) geomagnetic storms during the first 4.5 years of cycle 23, while only 5 occurred during cycle 24. The subdued activity during cycle 23 is consistent with the low numbers of type II radio bursts, full halo CMEs, and interplanetary shocks.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗
NASA NTRS1997

Solar Cycle Predictions Near Sunspot Minimum

Observations of solar magnetic activity and the dynamics of the solar convection zone have produced severe constraints on models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo. These constraints are so severe that, at present, we do not have numerical models that can accept the current conditions and then march forward in time to predict future activity. Given this state of solar dynamo theory we are forced to examine previous behavior to discover patterns and trends that afford us some measure of predictability. Here we examine the behavior of several indicators of solar activity near solar minimum that are well correlated with the amplitude of the following solar maximum to predict the level of solar activity over cycle 23. Sunspot numbers, areas, and positions are useful for characterizing solar cycle behavior due to the extent of the data (12 cycles or more). These data exhibit several patterns that relate future activity to past behavior. With the Odd-Even effect the odd numbered cycles have been larger than their even numbered predecessors for each of the last six cycle pairs. With the Amplitude-Period effect short period cycles have been followed by large amplitude cycles and long period cycles have been followed by small amplitude cycles for 10 of the last 13 cycles. With the Maximum-Minimum effect the sunspot number at minimum is directly correlated with the sunspot number at maximum for a given cycle. The geomagnetic indices aa and Ap are also related to solar activity by the connections between disturbances in the solar wind and variations in the Earth's magnetic field. Like the Maximum-Minimum effect for sunspots, the size of the aa and Ap indices at minimum are directly related to the amplitude of the following maximum. The number of geomagnetically disturbed days (days with Ap >= 25) over the course of a cycle is another indicator for the size of the next cycle. The aa and Ap indices can each be separated into a component in phase with the current sunspot cycle and an "extended cycle" component that is directly related to the following cycle. Individually each of these indicators provides some measure of predictive ability for the amplitudes of previous cycles. Taken in combination we find that the predictions are much more accurate. Our multi-variate analysis indicates that a maximum sunspot number of 160 +/- 20 should occur near the end of 1999 for cycle 23.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The solar cycle dependence of the location and shape of the Venus bow shock

The Venus terminator bow shock position is monitored and it is shown that the shock radius increases as the solar cycle approaches a new maximum. It is also shown that the subsolar bow shock changes with the solar cycle, and that these positions are correlated with each other and with solar activity. It is hypothesized that, at solar minimum, the magnetic barrier is weak, and that some absorption of solar wind is to be expected.

Zhang, T.-L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Solar-cycle dependence of galactic cosmic ray flux. II - The correlation between the nucleonic flux and solar indices

To investigate the relationship between solar activity and cosmic-ray modulation, time series of the nucleonic flux and of solar plages, sunspots, centimeter radio noise, and the brightness of the white-light corona at 1.1 and 1.5 solar radii from the center of sun are cross-correlated. Data pertain to the years 1964-1967 during the ascending phase of the current solar cycle. The amplitudes and phases of correlation functions for filtered and unfiltered indices are discussed. The existence of a superior solar index for relating solar activity to long-term modulation is not yet demonstrated conclusively, and the time lag of modulation is too poorly determined to permit its use in estimating the radius of the modulation region.

Parker, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Solar cycle study of interplanetary Lyman-alpha variations - Pioneer Venus Orbiter sky background results

PVO observations of the interplanetary Ly-alpha (IPL) background, obtained over an entire solar cycle (SC) from 1979 to 1985, are compiled and analyzed statistically, along with data from other instruments and earlier solar cycles. The results are presented in extensive tables and graphs and characterized in detail. Findings reported include SC variation of 1.8 for the longitudinally averaged IPL intensity (in agreement with the variation of the 27-d disk-averaged integrated solar Ly-alpha flux), yearly averaged ecliptic H-atom lifetime at 1 AU equal to 1.0 Ms at solar minimum and 1.5 Ms at solar maximum, interplanetary H density equal to 0.07 + or - 0.01/cu cm, and interplanetary H/He within the heliopause but far from the sun of 7 + or - 3.

Ajello, J. M.↗