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NASA NTRS2007

An Experimental Approach to Understanding the Optical Effects of Space Weathering

The creation and accumulation of nanophase iron (npFe(sup 0)) is the primary mechanism by which spectra of materials exposed to the space environment incur systematic changes referred to as "space weathering." The optical effects of this npFe(sup 0) on lunar soils are well documented. Space weathering though, should occur on the surface of any planetary body that is not protected by an atmosphere. There is no reason to assume that cumulative space weathering products throughout the solar system will be the same as those found in lunar soils. In fact, these products are likely to be very dependent on the specific environmental conditions under which they were produced. We have prepared a suite of analog soils to explore the optical effects of npFe(sup 0). By varying the size and concentration of npFe(sup 0) in the analogs we found significant systematic changes in the Vis/NIR spectral properties of the materials. Smaller npFe(sup 0) (<10 nm in diameter) dramatically reddens spectra in the visible wavelengths while leaving the infrared region largely unaffected. Larger npFe(sup 0) (>40 nm in diameter) lowers the albedo across the Vis/NIR range with little change in the overall shape of the continuum. Intermediate npFe(sup 0) sizes impact the spectra in a distinct pattern that changes with concentration. The products of these controlled experiments have implications for space-weathered material throughout the inner solar system. Our results indicate that the lunar soil continuum is best modeled by npFe(sup 0) particles with bulk properties in the approx.15-25 nm size range. Larger npFe0 grains result in spectra that are similar in shape to the Mercury continuum. The continuum of S-type asteroid spectra appear to be best represented by small amounts of npFe(sup 0) that is similar to, but slightly smaller on average, than the npFe(sup 0) in lunar soils (approx.10-15 nm).

Noble, Sarah K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2019

Understanding the Space Weathering of Mercury via Simulation of Micrometeorite Impacts

Space weathering alters the surfaces of airless planetary bodies via irradiation from the solar wind and micrometeorite impacts. These processes modify the microstructure, chemical composition, and spectral properties of surface materials, typically resulting in the reddening (increasing reflectance with increasing wavelength), darkening (reducing albedo), and attenuation of characteristic absorption features in reflectance spectra. In lunar samples, these changes in optical properties are driven by the production of reduced nanophase Fe particles (npFe). Our understanding of space weathering has largely been based on data from the Moon and, more recently, near-Earth S-type asteroids. However, the environment at Mercury is significantly different, with the surface experiencing intense solar wind irradiation and higher velocity micrometeorite impacts. Additionally, the composition of Mercury’s surface varies significantly from that of the Moon, including a component with very low albedo known as low reflectance material (LRM) which is enriched with up to 4 wt.% carbon over the local mean. Our understanding of how carbon phases, including graphite, are altered as a result of these processes is limited.

McGlaun, M. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗

NASA NTRS2014

Space Weathering of Olivine in Lunar Soils: A Comparison to Itokawa Regolith Samples

Regolith particles from airless bodies preserve a record of the space weathering processes that occurred during their surface exposure history. These processes have major implications for interpreting remote-sensing data from airless bodies. Solar wind irradiation effects occur in the rims of exposed grains, and impact processes result in the accumulation of vapordeposited elements and other surface-adhering materials. The grains returned from the surface of Itokawa by the Hayabusa mission allow the space weathering "style" of a chondritic, asteroidal "soil" to be compared to the lunar case. Here, we present new studies of space-weathered olivine grains from lunar soils, and compare these results to olivine grains from Itokawa. Samples and Methods: We analyzed microtome thin sections of olivine grains from the 20-45 micron fractions of three lunar soils: 71061, 71501 and 10084 (immature, submature and mature, respectively). Imaging and analytical data were obtained using a JEOL 2500SE 200kV field-emission scanning-transmission electron microscope equipped with a thin-window energy-dispersive x-ray spectrometer. Similar analyses were obtained from three Hayabusa olivine grains. Results and Discussion: We observed lunar grains showing a range of solar flare track densities (from <10(exp 9) to approx.10(exp 12)/sq cm). The lunar olivines all show disordered, highly strained, nanocrystalline rims up to 150-nm thick. The disordered rim thickness is positively correlated with solar flare track density. All of the disordered rims are overlain by a Si-rich amorphous layer, ranging up to 50-nm thick, enriched in elements that are not derived from the host olivine (e.g., Ca, Al, and Ti). The outmost layer represents impact-generated vapor deposits typically observed on other lunar soil grains. The Hayabusa olivine grains show track densities <10(exp 10)/sq cm and display disordered rims 50- to 100-nm thick. The track densities are intermediate to those observed in olivines in immature and submature lunar soils and indicate surface exposures of approx. 10(exp 5) years. The outermost few nanometers of the disordered rims on Hayabusa olivines are more Si-rich and Mg- and Fe-depleted relative to the cores of the grains and likely represent a minor accumulation of impact-generated vapors or sputter deposits. Nanophase Fe metal particles are less abundant in the Hayabusa rims compared to the rims on lunar grains. Conclusions: The Hayabusa and lunar olivine grain rims have widths and microstructures consistent with formation from atomic displacement damage from solar wind ions. The space weathering features in the Hayabusa grains are similar to those observed in olivines from immature to submature lunar soils. A major difference, however, is that the Hayabusa grains appear to lack the hypervelocity impact products (melt spherules, thick vapor deposits, and abundant nanophase Fe metal particles) that are common in lunar soil grains with a similar exposure history.

Keller, L. P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Space Weather: New Directions for a Maturing Field and Journal

As space weather has significantly matured as a field, the Space Weather journal is implementing two major changes: a new scope and a new Editor-in-Chief (EiC). As part of the revised scope, the novelty of submitted manuscripts is now a major quality to be assessed by the editors and reviewers. The goal of the journal remains primarily to advance our understanding of fundamental space phenomena that have direct impact on technology, to improve the forecasting of such phenomena, and to provide space environment climatology models. This new scope is the last major change implemented by the departing EiC who will be succeeded in January 2026 by Dr. Steven K. Morley. The new EiC will now oversee a large editorial board and a journal with over 400 submissions in 2025.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Solar Origins of Severe Space Weather

Solar cycle 23 witnessed an unprecedented array of space- and ground-based instruments observing the violent eruptions from the Sun that had huge impact on the heliosphere. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) contribute to space weather by producing geomagnetic storms and accelerating energetic particles, the two aspects that concern the space weather community. This paper discusses the kinematic and solar-source properties of these CMEs and how they vary with the solar activity cycle with particular emphasis on the following issues. Intense geomagnetic storms are caused by the out-of-the-ecliptic component of the magnetic field in CMEs and/or their sheath. Geoeffective CMEs originate close to the disk center of the Sun. Geoeffective CMEs are more energetic (average speed approx.1000 km/s, mostly halo CMEs or partial halo CMEs). CMEs producing solar energetic particles are the fastest (average speed approx. 1600 km/s) of all CME populations and have very high halo CME fraction. The source location requirement is different for Geoeffective and SEP-producing CMEs because of the different paths taken by CME plasma and energetic particles.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Weather

This video provides a narrated exploration of the history and affects of space weather. It includes information the earth's magnetic field, solar radiation, magnetic storms, and how solar winds affect electronics on earth, with specific information on how space weather affects space exploration in the future.

Gallagher, Dennis L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. CCMC has been leading recent comprehensive modeling challenges under GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. The presentation will focus on experience in carrying out comprehensive and systematic validation of large sets of. space weather models

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Space Weather Architecture Options to Support Human and Robotic Deep Space Exploration

Understanding solar energetic particle (SEP) event characteristics is critical to the proper design of human and robotic space missions. This report details a study of operational response time for monitoring space weather for crewed flights, specifically targeting lunar and Mars missions. The NESC assessment team evaluated the required minimum latency for data streams and forecasts that will directly affect mission operations using a 41-year database (i.e., European Space Agency (ESA) Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modeling (SEPEM) RSDv2.0) of SEP events. The database contained 192 SEP events that resulted in a dose increase above background levels. Of those, 10% were “multiple events,” or events that occurred in quick succession. The analysis provides probabilistic values for time to peak flux and dose rate for the duration of each event. This NESC assessment also evaluated the SEP threshold levels for exploration missions to determine the relevant energy range of required proton measurements.

Solar energetic particle↗

NASA NTRS2007

[Space Weather Impact on the Electricity Market]

Forbes & St. Cyr (2004, hereafter "FISC") have provided evidence that the electricity market can be impacted by space weather. Our analysis indicated that the estimated market impact for PJM was 3.7 % or approximately $500 million dollars over the 19 month sample period. Kappenman has taken exception to this estimate and contends that we have exaggerated the magnitude of the problem that space weather poses to PJM. There are four specific issues: (1) he claims that we have ignored relevant literature; (2) he asserts that Dst is not an appropriate proxy for GICs in PJM; (3) he charges that our findings are inconsistent with the impact of the 17 September 2000 storm; and (4) he alleges that our discussion of October 2003 storms is misleading. In our article, we have explained our methodology, multivariate regression analysis, with a particular focus on how it compares to correlation analysis. We have also explained the limitations of our analysis. We noted that "...While the Dstlprice relationship was found to be robust, the precise estimate should be treated with a relatively high degree of caution given that econometric modeling is not an exact science as well as the fact that the measure of space weather may be a poor proxy for GICs" (paragraph 96). We have also noted that additional research using local magnetometer data are needed (paragraph 97). We did not claim that that our findings for PJM are representative of the impact of space weather on other power grids. On the contrary, we noted that ... "Only analysis of other power grids will tell. " (paragraph 97). Kappenman inaccurately asserts that we have indicated that our findings . . . "imply much higher total costs are likely across the US and elsewhere in the world." He also inaccurately asserts that we have claimed that " . . . Dst is the most suited proxy for GIC in the PJM grid.. ." Moreover, he inaccurately refers to our analysis as a correlation study that uses Dst as quasi-binary indicator.

SaintCyr, O. Chris↗

NASA NTRS2003

Space Weathering: An Ultraviolet Indicator

We present evidence suggesting that the spectral slope of airless bodies in the UV-visible wavelength range can be used as an indicator of exposure to space weathering. While space weathering generally produces a reddening of spectra in the visible-NIR spectral regions, it tends to result in a bluing of the UV-visible portion of the spectrum, and may in some cases produce a spectral reversal. The bluing effect may be detectable with smaller amounts of weathering than are necessary to detect the longer-wavelength weathering effects.

Hendrix, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Space Weathering: An Ultraviolet Indicator

Hendrix, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA's Internal Space Weather Working Group

Measurements from many of NASA's scientific spacecraft are used routinely by space weather forecasters, both in the U.S. and internationally. ACE, SOHO (an ESA/NASA collaboration), STEREO, and SDO provide images and in situ measurements that are assimilated into models and cited in alerts and warnings. A number of years ago, the Space Weather laboratory was established at NASA-Goddard, along with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Within that organization, a space weather service center has begun issuing alerts for NASA's operational users. NASA's operational user community includes flight operations for human and robotic explorers; atmospheric drag concerns for low-Earth orbit; interplanetary navigation and communication; and the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, high altitude aircraft, and launch vehicles. Over the past three years we have identified internal stakeholders within NASA and formed a Working Group to better coordinate their expertise and their needs. In this presentation we will describe this activity and some of the challenges in forming a diverse working group.

St. Cyr, O. C.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Recommending Low-Cost Compact Space Environment and Space Weather Effects Sensor Suites for NASA Missions

As miniaturized spacecraft (e.g., cubesats and smallsats) and instrumentation become an increasingly indispensable part of space exploration and scientific investigations, it is important to understand their potential susceptibility to space weather impacts resulting from the sometimes volatile space environment. There are a multitude of complexities involved in how space environment interacts with different space hardware/electronics. Measurements of such impacts, however, have been lacking. Therefore, we recommend developing and/or procuring low-cost, low-power consumption, and compact sensor suites (mainly for space weather and impact purposes) and flying them on all future NASA (and, more generally, U.S) missions in order to measure and quantify space weather impacts, in addition to the main instrumentation.

Yihua Zheng↗

NASA NTRS2006

The STEREO Mission: A New Approach to Space Weather Research

With the launch of the twin STEREO spacecraft in July 2006, a new capability will exist for both real-time space weather predictions and for advances in space weather research. Whereas previous spacecraft monitors of the sun such as ACE and SOH0 have been essentially on the sun-Earth line, the STEREO spacecraft will be in 1 AU orbits around the sun on either side of Earth and will be viewing the solar activity from distinctly different vantage points. As seen from the sun, the two spacecraft will separate at a rate of 45 degrees per year, with Earth bisecting the angle. The instrument complement on the two spacecraft will consist of a package of optical instruments capable of imaging the sun in the visible and ultraviolet from essentially the surface to 1 AU and beyond, a radio burst receiver capable of tracking solar eruptive events from an altitude of 2-3 Rs to 1 AU, and a comprehensive set of fields and particles instruments capable of measuring in situ solar events such as interplanetary magnetic clouds. In addition to normal daily recorded data transmissions, each spacecraft is equipped with a real-time beacon that will provide 1 to 5 minute snapshots or averages of the data from the various instruments. This beacon data will be received by NOAA and NASA tracking stations and then relayed to the STEREO Science Center located at Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland where the data will be processed and made available within a goal of 5 minutes of receipt on the ground. With STEREO's instrumentation and unique view geometry, we believe considerable improvement can be made in space weather prediction capability as well as improved understanding of the three dimensional structure of solar transient events.

Kaiser, michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Forecasting Safe or Dangerous Space Weather from HMI Magnetograms

We have developed a space-weather forecasting tool using an active-region free-energy proxy that was measured from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. To develop this forecasting tool (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather Journal, in press), we used a database of 40,000 MDI magnetograms of 1300 active regions observed by MDI during the previous solar cycle (cycle 23). From each magnetogram we measured our free-energy proxy and for each active region we determined its history of major flare, CME and Solar Particle Event (SPE) production. This database determines from the value of an active region s free-energy proxy the active region s expected rate of production of 1) major flares, 2) CMEs, 3) fast CMEs, and 4) SPEs during the next few days. This tool was delivered to NASA/SRAG in 2010. With MDI observations ending, we have to be able to use HMI magnetograms instead of MDI magnetograms. One of the difficulties is that the measured value of the free-energy proxy is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the measured magnetogram: the 0.5 /pixel resolution of HMI gives a different value for the free-energy proxy than the 2 /pixels resolution of MDI. To use our MDI-database forecasting curves until a comparably large HMI database is accumulated, we smooth HMI line-of-sight magnetograms to MDI resolution, so that we can use HMI to find the value of the free-energy proxy that MDI would have measured, and then use the forecasting curves given by the MDI database. The new version for use with HMI magnetograms was delivered to NASA/SRAG (March 2011). It can also use GONG magnetograms, as a backup.

Falconer, David↗

NASA NTRS2018

Understanding Space Weather Part III: the Sun's Domain

The Sun exports a continuous outflow of plasma into interplanetary space: the solar wind. The solar wind primarily comprises two components: high- and slow-speed flows. These move with velocities ranging from 200 to 800 km/s depending on the source of the particular flow. As well as its speed, the density, temperature, and even the composition of the solar wind change. Adding to its intrinsic variability, there are embedded transients resulting from flares and coronal mass ejections that further complicate its dynamics and space weather impacts. The solar wind interacts differently with each of the solar system objects it encounters based on their magnetic and atmospheric properties. Even more complex processes occur as the solar wind encounters the interstellar medium, at the outer boundaries of the Sun's domain. The solar wind stretches to beyond 100 au (where 1 au defined to be equal to 149 597 870 700 m) from the Sun, which means that Earth is essentially immersed in the very hot solar atmosphere, and that leads to many space weather impacts on life and society. The specific space weather impacts on Earth will be discussed in detail in the next two papers in this series.

Strong, Keith↗