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DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamics of MgO Atomic Layer Deposition Surface Reactions

The realities of atomic layer deposition (ALD) surface reactions often deviate from the simple ligand exchange frequently used to illustrate the technique. A detailed understanding of these reactions is necessary to develop greater surface synthetic control including chemical selectivity for patterning or to target defects. Here, the thermodynamics of surface reactions relevant to MgO ALD were investigated using pyroelectric calorimetry to measure the time-resolved heat generation. These reactions show exothermic heat generation of 0.12 mJ/cm 2 and 0.15 mJ/cm 2 for alternating Mg(CpEt) 2 and H 2 O reactions, respectively. The total reaction heat closely matches the standard reaction enthalpy for bulk MgO, supplemented with first-principles molecular calculations. First-principles models further reveal that while simple ligand exchange is favorable during surface reactions, the required increase in Mg-coordination number from two in the precursor to six in bulk MgO requires additional coverage-dependent surface reactions, which depend on the availability and stability of proximal surface hydroxyls.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evidence for tWZ production in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV in multilepton final states

The first evidence for the standard model production of a top quark in association with a W boson and a Z boson is reported. The measurement is performed in multilepton final states, where the Z boson is reconstructed via its decays to electron or muon pairs. At least one W boson, associated or from top quark decay, decays leptonically, too. The analysed data were recorded by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2016–2018 in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The measured cross section is 354 ± 54 ( stat ) ± 95 ( syst ) fb, and corresponds to a statistical significance of 3.4 standard deviations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty estimation of bifurcated solutions in the Rayleigh–Bénard problem for advanced nuclear reactors applications

Multiphysics models of nuclear reactors frequently comprise nonlinear systems of equations. The nonlinear nature of these models could lead to solution bifurcations, where a small change in a certain parameter, e.g., the thermophysical properties of the coolant, can lead to a sudden change in the system’s behavior. At the point in parameter space where this happens, called a critical point, the Jacobian matrix of the model’s nonlinear operator becomes singular potentially permitting multiple solutions to coexist. In this paper, we perform uncertainty estimation (UE) in a parameter range that includes bifurcated solutions within the context of Rayleigh–Bénard problem. We perform this analysis assuming uncertain temperature difference, and tilt angle for the iterative solution algorithm with a unit Prandtl number (Pr = 1). Also, we perform this analysis under uncertain thermophysical properties for both FLiBe molten salt and liquid sodium as working fluid. We deploy two approaches to compute statistical moments for the resulting distributions of selected flow-field variables. The first approach is the blind computation of the mean and the standard deviation without any consideration of solution bifurcation, while the second approach utilizes k-means clustering to cluster each branch’s solutions together and compute separate statistical moments for each branch. The statistical distributions are obtained by perturbing the selected parameters about nominal values that correspond to a solution on one of the valid branches, and that solution is used as initial guess for the iterative solution algorithm. We found that perturbation of any parameter when its nominal value is close to its critical point always leads to branch jumping, i.e., the iterations converge to a solution on a branch different from the branch of the initial guess. This produces a statistical ensemble comprised of fundamentally different solutions leading to wrong mean values and uncertainty estimates, whereas clustering provides an efficient way to deal with this type of computation. This work is important for developing Gen IV nuclear systems because many of these systems rely on natural convection for cooling especially in accident conditions.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measuring Local Turbulence Along the Optical Path: Multi-Beam Optical Seeing Sensor

Deflection of light along the optical path is a major source of image degradation for ground-based telescopes. Methods have been developed to measure upper atmospheric seeing based on models of the turbulence in the atmosphere, but due to boundary conditions, transmission within telescope enclosures is more complex. The Multi-beam Optical Seeing Sensor (MOSS) directly measures the component of the image quality degradation from inhomogeneity of the index of refraction within the telescope dome. MOSS outputs four near-parallel beams of light that travel along the optical path and are imaged by the telescope’s detector, landing like starlight on the telescope’s focal plane. By using a strobed light source, we can ‘freeze’ the instantaneous index variations transverse to the optical path. This system captures both ‘dome’ and ‘mirror’ seeing. Through plotting the standard deviation of differential motion between pairs of beams, MOSS enables characterization of the length scale of turbulence within the dome. The temporal coherence of temperature gradients can be probed with different pulse lengths, and the spatial coherence by comparing pairs at different separations across the aperture of the telescope. Optical path turbulence measurements, alongside other telemetry metrics, will guide thermal and airflow management to optimize image quality. A MOSS prototype was installed in the 1.2[Formula: see text]m Auxiliary Telescope (AuxTel) at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile, and preliminary data constrain the optical path turbulence with a lower bound of 1.4 arcsec. The optical path turbulence varied throughout the night of observing.

Astronomical seeing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Combination of Searches for Higgs Boson Pair Production in pp Collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

This Letter presents results from a combination of searches for Higgs boson pair production using 126–140 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √𝑠 =13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector. At 95% confidence level (CL), the upper limit on the production rate is 2.9 times the standard model (SM) prediction, with an expected limit of 2.4 assuming no Higgs boson pair production. Constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling modifier 𝜅 𝜆 = 𝜆 𝐻⁡𝐻⁡𝐻 /𝜆$^{SM}_{𝐻⁡𝐻⁡𝐻}$, and the quartic 𝐻⁡𝐻⁡𝑉⁢𝑉 coupling modifier 𝜅 2⁢𝑉 = 𝑔 𝐻⁡𝐻⁡𝑉⁢𝑉⁡ /𝑔$^{SM}_{𝐻⁡𝐻⁡𝑉⁢𝑉}$, are derived individually, fixing the other parameter to its SM value. The observed 95% CL intervals are −1.2<𝜅 𝜆 < 7.2 and 0.6<𝜅 2⁢𝑉 < 1.5, respectively, while the expected intervals are −1.6<𝜅 𝜆 < 7.2 and 0.4<𝜅 2⁢𝑉 < 1.6 in the SM case. Constraints obtained for several interaction parameters within Higgs effective field theory are the strongest to date, offering insights into potential deviations from SM predictions.

Hadron colliders↗

DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Uncertainty of Inhalation Dose Coefficients: Impact of Particle Deposition in ICRP 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model

Inhaled radioactive materials can pose a long-term health concern, as the material can be incorporated into the body’s metabolic pathways and remain in organs and tissues for extended durations. During the retention period, the radioactive material may localize in a source organ and irradiate adjacent target organs and tissues. Distribution of these materials changes over time, requiring biokinetic modeling to evaluate their movement through various tissues and organs. The evolving distribution depends on multiple inputs characterizing the inhaled material, such as particle size and size distribution, particle density, aspect ratio, specific radionuclide, the chemical form, and solubility. In addition, biological parameters such as breathing rate, breathing type (nasal or nasal/oral), respiratory system morphometry, tidal volume, functional residual capacity, and anatomical dead space all influence material transport. These aerosol properties and physiological characteristics of the respiratory tract jointly define a range of initial conditions that influence the time-dependent distribution of radioactive material. To evaluate both uncertainty in the initial conditions of inhalation exposure and the final output (committed effective dose) from biokinetic models, a Python-based software tool, Radiological Exposure Dose Calculator (REDCAL), was developed to propagate uncertainty within the human respiratory tract model. Focusing on deposition fraction uncertainty, the primary objective was to characterize the initial activity distribution across respiratory regions as a function of anticipated particle sizes and distributions. The impact of the deposition fraction uncertainty was propagated to committed effective dose coefficients for selected radionuclides in a companion publication. For each particle size, a lognormal distribution, characterized by its geometric mean as defined within ICRP Publication 66, serves as the basis for introducing uncertainty into the physical processes governing deposition in various lung regions. Finally, this study addresses the deposition process and examines how uncertainty in deposition mechanisms affects activity distribution in the airways, ultimately presenting the expected range and standard deviation of deposited activity as a function of particle size.

International Commission on Radiological Protectio↗

DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Wind

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of Coupled and Uncoupled Modeling of Floating Wind Farms with Shared Anchors

As design options for floating wind farms continue to be explored, shared (or multiline) anchors that secure mooring lines from multiple turbines remain a promising technology that can potentially reduce the number of anchors and overall mooring costs. This study evaluates two methods for analyzing the loads on shared anchors: one in which floating offshore wind turbines are simulated individually (using the software OpenFAST), and one in which an entire floating wind farm is simulated collectively (using the software FAST.Farm). A three-line shared anchor is evaluated for multiple loading scenarios in deep water, using the International Energy Agency 15 MW turbine on the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. While the two methods produce broadly comparable results, the coupled wave loading on platforms within the farm results in wave force cancellations and amplifications that decrease multiline force directional ranges and increase multiline force extreme values (up to 7%) and standard deviations (up to 11%) for wave-driven load cases. The inclusion of wakes in FAST.Farm also reduces the net load on the shared anchor due to the velocity deficit, leading to larger differences between OpenFAST and FAST.Farm (up to 3% difference in mean loads) for load cases with operational turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Resilience of the surface code to error bursts

Quantum error correction works effectively only if the error rate of gate operations is sufficiently low. However, some rare physical mechanisms can cause a temporary increase in the error rate that affects many qubits; examples include ionizing radiation in superconducting hardware and large deviations in the global control of atomic systems. We refer to such rare transient spikes in the gate error rate as error bursts. In this work, we investigate the resilience of the rotated surface code to generic error bursts. We assume that, after appropriate mitigation strategies, the spike in the error rate lasts for only a single syndrome-extraction cycle; we also assume that the enhanced error rate is uniform across the code block. Under these assumptions, and for a circuit-level depolarizing noise model, we perform Monte Carlo simulations to determine the regime in burst error rate and background error rate for which the memory time becomes arbitrarily long as the code block size grows. Our results indicate that suitable hardware mitigation methods combined with standard decoding methods may suffice to protect against transient error bursts in the rotated surface code.

Quantum error correction↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-interacting Dark Matter, Core Collapse, and the Galaxy–Galaxy Strong-lensing Discrepancy

Abstract Gravitational lensing by galaxy clusters has emerged as a powerful tool to probe the standard cold dark matter (CDM) paradigm of structure formation in the Universe. Despite the remarkable explanatory power of CDM on large scales, tensions with observations on small scales have been reported. Recent studies find that the observational cross section for galaxy–galaxy strong lensing (GGSL) in clusters exceeds the CDM prediction by more than an order of magnitude and persists even after rigorous examination of various possible systematics. We investigate the impact of modifying the internal structure of cluster dark matter subhalos on GGSL and report that altering the inner density profile, given by r γ , to steeper slopes with γ > 2.5 can alleviate the GGSL discrepancy. This is steeper than slopes obtained with the inclusion of the contribution of baryons to the inner regions of these subhalos. Deviating from the γ ~ 1.0 cusps that CDM predicts, these steeper slopes could arise in models of self-interacting dark matter undergoing core collapse. Our results motivate additional study of subhalo core collapse in dense cluster environments.

Dutra, Isaque (ORCID:0000000170404930)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Solar PV

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) research platform. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes the behavior of a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane MC250 electrolyzer system, manufactured by Nel Hydrogen , [1] when fed historical data generated by the 430-kW, fixed-axis solar photovoltaic (PV) array located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus. (While the electrolyzer balance of plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack.) Solar PV power output data for the 2020 calendar year were categorized on a daily basis by total energy generation and standard deviation. Each day was then ranked by these metrics, and the 25th, 50th, and 100th percentiles were selected. The 75th percentile day did not exhibit sufficient variability to make for a valuable experiment. A similar process was used for the related historical wind dataset . [2] The historical days in 2020 that represented these percentiles are Dec. 19, March 29, and May 4, respectively. The entire solar day’s power profile was then fed through the MC250 electrolyzer. Due to its length, the 100th percentile day experiment was split into two parts, and the final 3 hours of the solar day were not captured. These final 3 hours contained no spikes or dips of interest and simply represented a slow decay of input solar power. Also, a single timestamp (13:13:47 on Jan. 14, 2026) was lost in the hydrogen system supervisory control and data acquisition. Finally, during the 25th percentile experiment (solar day Dec. 19, 2020) data recording was lost from 11:00:13 to 11:14:45. The roughly 15 minutes of the solar profile were rerun at the end of the experiment and spliced into this time slot during post-processing. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical solar profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the slide deck “Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis: NLR Historical Solar PV Analysis and Profile Generation” accessible with this data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single solar PV electrolysis experiment and is formatted as: {technology}_{percentile}_{scaling factor} For instance, “solarPV-430kW_25_2x.zip” reports the experiment using the 25th percentile solar data from the historical 2020 solar PV dataset, scaled to 200%. Scaling factors were applied to the generated solar PV power output files to more closely match the 1.25-MW capacity of the electrolyzer. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and solar power input. A PDF file detailing the historical solar data statistical analysis used to generate the solar profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_solarPV_experiments.csv". [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser . [2] data.nlr.gov/submissions/316 .

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying dispersity in size and shape of nanoparticles from small-angle scattering data using machine learning based CREASE

Here, we use machine learning (ML) enhanced computational reverse engineering analysis of scattering experiments (CREASE) to interpret small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) data obtained from a system of nanoparticles without a priori knowledge of their exact shapes (e.g. spheres or ellipsoids), sizes (0.5–50 nm) and distributions. The SAXS measurements yielded three categories of scattering profiles exhibiting 'strong', 'weak' and 'no' features. Diminishing features (e.g. broadening or disappearing peaks) in scattering profiles have always been attributed to the presence of significant dispersity in the system. Such featureless SAXS data are not suitable for traditional analysis using analytical models. If one were to fit a relevant analytical model (e.g. the lmfit analytical model for polydisperse spheres) to these 'weak' and 'no' SAXS profiles from our nanoparticle systems, one would obtain non-unique interpretations of the data. Relying on electron microscopy to identify the distributions of nanoparticle shapes and sizes is also unfeasible, especially in high-throughput synthesis and characterization loops. In such situations, to identify the distributions of particle sizes and shapes that could be present in the sample, one must rely on methods like ML-CREASE to interpret the data quickly and output all relevant interpretations about the structure present in the system. The ML-CREASE optimization loop takes the experimental scattering profile as input and outputs multiple candidate solutions whose computed scattering profiles match the SAXS profile input. The ML-CREASE method outputs distributions of relevant structural features, such as the volume fraction of the nanoparticles in the system and the mean and standard deviation of the particle size and aspect ratio, assuming a type of distribution (e.g. normal, log-normal) for size and aspect ratio. We find that, for the SAXS profiles analyzed here, accounting for the shape dispersity along with size dispersity of the nanoparticles using ML-CREASE improved the match between the computed scattering profiles and input experimental profiles.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Long-term socioeconomic trends and climate variability as drivers of virtual water scarcity in China

Water scarcity can have far-reaching sectoral impacts beyond its physical location through the propagation of virtual water flows. Socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes affect local and virtual water scarcity by altering availability and demand. Yet most studies of this phenomenon focus on volumetric footprints, and the few on water scarcity risk have not examined hydroclimatic variability beyond long-term trends. In this study, we ask how gross domestic product (GDP) and population changes, long-term meteorological trends, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and interannual meteorological variability affect water scarcity in China, both locally (through the local water scarcity risk index, LWSR) and remotely (through the virtual water scarcity risk index, VWSR). Counterfactual scenarios were compared in a regression-and-simulation framework, with the socioeconomic and meteorological drivers varying over 1923–2019 and the multi-regional input–output structure staying fixed at 2017. Relative to a 5 year baseline centered on 2017, GDP and population changes have induced a cumulative 17%–50% increase in LWSR and 13%–21% increase in VWSR, outweighing the effect of long-term meteorological trends. phase change in one of two examined SST patterns induce 4%–13% differences in LWSR and 1%–4% differences in VWSR. Interannual meteorological variability induces 10%–20% standard deviations in LWSR and 3%–7% in VWSR. The findings highlight the importance of using longer time series to accurately assess local and virtual water scarcity situations. Water scarcity management should prioritize socioeconomic factors when planning at century-long timescales and prioritize hydroclimatic factors at multidecadal or shorter timescales. water managers should consider interannual variabilities in LWSR and VWSR and plan for potential occurrences of extreme conditions.

climate variability↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for resonances decaying to an anomalous jet and a Higgs boson in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$

This paper presents a search for new physics through the process where a massive particle, X, decays into a Higgs boson and a second particle, Y. The Higgs boson subsequently decays into a bottom quark–antiquark pair, which is reconstructed as a single large-radius jet. The decay products of Yare also assumed to produce a single large-radius jet. The identification of the Yparticle is enhanced by computing the anomaly score of its candidate jet using an autoencoder, which measures deviations from typical quark- or gluon-induced jets. This allows a simultaneous search for multiple Ydecay scenarios within a single analysis. In the main benchmark process, Yis a scalar particle that decays into a Wboson pair. Two other scalar Ydecay processes are also considered as benchmarks: decays to a light quark–antiquark pair, and decays to a top quark–antiquark pair. A fourth benchmark process considers Yas a hadronically decaying top quark, arising from the decay of a vector-like quark into a top quark and a Higgs boson. Data recorded by the CMS experiment at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb -1 , are analyzed. The search covers Xmasses between 1.4 and 3.0 TeV and Ymasses between 90 and 400 TeV, with all simulated signals produced in the narrow-width approximation. No significant excess above the standard model background expectation is observed. The most stringent upper limits to date are placed on benchmark signal cross sections for various masses of X and Y particles

Hayrapetyan, A. [Yerevan Physics Institute]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Front-of-Meter Model Results

These files contains aggregations of key variables from the NREL Distributed Wind Futures Study using full parcel level data. These variables describe total technical and economic potential for distributed wind turbine deployment. Aggregations are available at the (1) county, (2) zipcode (zip code tabulation area or zcta), and (3) US Census block group level. Each scenario is coded with the scenario name (e.g., baseline) and year (e.g., 2022). Those files postfixed with 'econpot' contain results for only those parcels that are economically viable while the files postfixed with 'techpot' include results for all parcels that are technically feasible. Hence these correspond to technoeconomic and technical potential respectively. The data are available as CSV or Geopackage. Columns in the files are as follows: * geoid: geographic identifier (FIPS code or similar) * min_techpot_sum_kw: technical potential for all parcels in kW using turbines downsized to demand when appropriate * max_techpot_sum_kw: technical potential for all parcels in kW without downsizing turbines * aep_sum_kwh: annual energy production estimate in kWh * cf_mean_ratio: mean capacity factor * lcoe_mean_cents_per_kwh: mean levelized cost of energy for parcels in geography in cents per kWh * lcoe_std_cents_per_kwh: standard deviation of the above * parcel_area_sum_acres: total area of viable parcels in acres * n_turbines: number of cited turbines (one per viable parcel currently) Note: These are preliminary results from the full-parcel 2024 update of the Distributed Wind Energy Futures study. Please take care when making use of the data, and feel free to contact the team with any questions. Full documentation in support of these data is in progress and will follow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Behind-the-Meter Model Results

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗