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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Data‐Efficient Generation of Synthetic Microstructures of Polymer‐Bonded Energetic Material With Fine‐Tuned Stable Diffusion

Among current deep learning approaches for synthetic image generation, diffusion-based models stand out in terms of algorithmic stability and ability to retain high-fidelity image features with detailed resolution. Here, in this work, we employ Dreambooth, a method for fine-tuning Stable Diffusion, on X-ray CT images of microstructure of the polymer-bonded form (PBX) of a commonly used high explosive, Pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN), which yields generative models for creating synthetic PBX images. The models developed here represent five classes (or ‘lots’) of microstructures and demonstrate successful generation of images of each class with high fidelity, as verified by computed classification accuracy of ∼ 94% or higher. Data augmentation afforded by such image synthesis can be used to more reliably decipher underlying statistics, build processing-structure correlations, recognize off-normal structural anomalies, and identify age-related changes. Ideas related to converting image data into appropriate density mapping and performing mesoscale simulation or surrogate modeling of detonation are also discussed.

Dreambooth↗
DOE OSTI2024

HSW-V v1.0: localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model

Abstract. A new set of standalone parameterizations is presented for simulating the injection, evolution, and radiative forcing by stratospheric volcanic aerosols against an idealized Held–Suarez–Williamson (HSW) atmospheric background in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). In this model configuration (HSW with enabled volcanism, HSW-V), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash are injected into the atmosphere with a specified profile in the vertical, and they proceed to follow a simple exponential decay. The SO2 decay is modeled as a perfect conversion to a long-living sulfate aerosol which persists in the stratosphere. All three species are implemented as tracers in the model framework and are transported by the dynamical core's advection algorithm. The aerosols contribute simultaneously to local heating of the stratosphere and cooling of the surface by a simple plane-parallel Beer–Lambert law applied on two zonally symmetric radiation broadbands in the longwave and shortwave ranges. It is shown that the implementation parameters can be tuned to produce realistic temperature anomaly signatures of large volcanic events. In particular, results are shown for an ensemble of runs that mimic the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. The design requires no coupling to microphysical subgrid-scale parameterizations and thus approaches the computational affordability of prescribed aerosol forcing strategies. The idealized simulations contain a single isolated volcanic event against a statistically uniform climate, where no background aerosols or other sources of externally forced variability are present. HSW-V represents a simpler-to-understand tool for the development of climate source-to-impact attribution methods.

Hollowed, Joseph P. (ORCID:0000000286581672)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convex relaxation for Fokker–Planck equation

We propose an approach to directly estimate the moments or marginals for a high-dimensional equilibrium distribution in statistical mechanics by solving the high-dimensional Fokker–Planck equation in terms of low-order cluster moments or marginals. With this approach, we bypass the exponential complexity of estimating the full high-dimensional distribution and directly solve the simplified partial differential equations for low-order moments/marginals. Moreover, the proposed moment/marginal relaxation is fully convex and can be solved via off-the-shelf solvers. We further propose a time-dependent version of the convex programs to study non-equilibrium dynamics. In a specific setting, we show the proposed method can recover a mean-field-type equilibrium density. Numerical results are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm for high-dimensional systems.

Chen, Yian↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Multi-Sensor Approach for Measuring Bird and Bat Collisions with Offshore Wind Turbines (Final Technical Report)

Collision of birds and bats with wind turbines is a conservation concern for both land-based and offshore wind projects. The fatality rates of birds and bats at land-based turbines are well documented. The measurement strategies on land focus on finding carcasses following collision, estimating the number of carcasses missed through searcher efficiency, carcass persistence trials and carcass fall distributions, and modeling statistically robust fatality rates. Few technologies have been developed to monitor offshore bird and bat collisions, and many that have been developed focused on detecting collisions with large birds. The few studies that have attempted to document collisions at offshore turbines do not account for smaller bodied animals or for collisions that might be missed, which prevents the calculation of statistically robust fatality rates. The overall goal of this report, A Multi-Sensor Approach for Measuring Bird and Bat Collisions with Offshore Wind Turbines (Project), was to develop an effective multi-sensor system for quantifying bird and bat collision rates, specifically for offshore wind facilities. The Project goal and resulting automated collision detection system was achieved through two major technological advancements: 1) refining The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research’s (TNO’s) existing WT-Bird® vibration sensing system, that had successfully detected large bird collisions during daytime, to allow for improved detection of smaller birds and bats during both daytime and nighttime hours and 2) improving image processing systems and developing and integrating machine learning algorithms to automatically detect and classify small and large bird and bat collisions with offshore turbines. This final technical report (FTR) summarizes Methods , Results , Conclusions , and Lessons Learned during each of the five Tasks identified for this research and development effort. This FTR includes summaries of the following: Task 1. Initial Engineering Tests to Improve WT-Bird® Task 2. Installation of WT‐Bird® on a Utility-scale Turbine at the National Wind Technology Center – National Renewable Energy Laboratory Task 3. Field Tests and Refinement of the Object Detection System Task 4. Validation of WT-Bird® on a Land-based Turbine Task 5. Preparation for the Implementation of WT-Bird® on an Offshore Turbine. This research and development effort documented successful improvement of the WT Bird® collision detection system to detect small birds and bats, and WT-Bird® is the first collision detection system to validate results compared to land-based post-construction monitoring. The collision trials provide estimates of missed targets that can be used to estimate fatality rates, a significant improvement relative to other offshore collision monitoring systems. Advances were made in developing an edge-processing solution to reduce data storage requirements, which is important if the system is deployed for long periods of time at offshore turbines. The improved WT-Bird® system also provides an important option for wind operators on land or offshore who need to document specific details about when collisions occur, particularly efforts to further research on bat impact minimization, or when standard fatality searches are impractical (e.g. offshore) or inadequate (e.g. challenging locations on land).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

BRAKER3: Fully automated genome annotation using RNA-seq and protein evidence with GeneMark-ETP, AUGUSTUS, and TSEBRA

Gene prediction has remained an active area of bioinformatics research for a long time. Still, gene prediction in large eukaryotic genomes presents a challenge that must be addressed by new algorithms. The amount and significance of the evidence available from transcriptomes and proteomes vary across genomes, between genes, and even along a single gene. User-friendly and accurate annotation pipelines that can cope with such data heterogeneity are needed. The previously developed annotation pipelines BRAKER1 and BRAKER2 use RNA-seq or protein data, respectively, but not both. A further significant performance improvement integrating all three data types was made by the recently released GeneMark-ETP. We here present the BRAKER3 pipeline that builds on GeneMark-ETP and AUGUSTUS, and further improves accuracy using the TSEBRA combiner. BRAKER3 annotates protein-coding genes in eukaryotic genomes using both short-read RNA-seq and a large protein database, along with statistical models learned iteratively and specifically for the target genome. We benchmarked the new pipeline on genomes of 11 species under an assumed level of relatedness of the target species proteome to available proteomes. BRAKER3 outperforms BRAKER1 and BRAKER2. The average transcript-level F1-score is increased by about 20 percentage points on average, whereas the difference is most pronounced for species with large and complex genomes. BRAKER3 also outperforms other existing tools, MAKER2, Funannotate, and FINDER. The code of BRAKER3 is available on GitHub and as a ready-to-run Docker container for execution with Docker or Singularity. Overall, BRAKER3 is an accurate, easy-to-use tool for eukaryotic genome annotation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recovered supernova Ia rate from simulated LSST images

Aims.TheVera C. RubinObservatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will revolutionize time-domain astronomy by detecting millions of different transients. In particular, it is expected to increase the number of known type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) by a factor of 100 compared to existing samples up to redshift ∼1.2. Such a high number of events will dramatically reduce statistical uncertainties in the analysis of the properties and rates of these objects. However, the impact of all other sources of uncertainty on the measurement of the SN Ia rate must still be evaluated. The comprehension and reduction of such uncertainties will be fundamental both for cosmology and stellar evolution studies, as measuring the SN Ia rate can put constraints on the evolutionary scenarios of different SN Ia progenitors. Methods.We used simulated data from the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) and LSST Data Preview 0 to measure the SN Ia rate on a 15 deg 2 region of the “wide-fast-deep” area. We selected a sample of SN candidates detected in difference images, associated them to the host galaxy with a specially developed algorithm, and retrieved their photometric redshifts. We then tested different light-curve classification methods, with and without redshift priors (albeit ignoring contamination from other transients, as DC2 contains only SN Ia). We discuss how the distribution in redshift measured for the SN candidates changes according to the selected host galaxy and redshift estimate. Results.We measured the SN Ia rate, analyzing the impact of uncertainties due to photometric redshift, host-galaxy association and classification on the distribution in redshift of the starting sample. We find that we are missing 17% of the SN Ia, on average, with respect to the simulated sample. As 10% of the mismatch is due to the uncertainty on the photometric redshift alone (which also affects classification when used as a prior), we conclude that this parameter is the major source of uncertainty. We discuss possible reduction of the errors in the measurement of the SN Ia rate, including synergies with other surveys, which may help us to use the rate to discriminate different progenitor models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time event reconstruction for Nuclear Physics Experiments using Artificial Intelligence

Charged track reconstruction is a critical task in nuclear physics experiments, enabling the identification and analysis of particles produced in high-energy collisions. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for this purpose, addressing the challenges posed by complex detector geometries, high event multiplicities, and noisy data. Traditional methods rely on pattern recognition algorithms like the Kalman filter, but ML techniques, such as neural networks, graph neural networks (GNNs), and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), offer improved accuracy and scalability. By learning from simulated and real detector data, ML models can identify and classify tracks, predict trajectories, and handle ambiguities caused by overlapping or missing hits. Moreover, ML-based approaches can process data in near-real-time, enhancing the efficiency of experiments at large-scale facilities like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and Jefferson Lab (JLAB). As detector technologies and computational resources evolve, ML-driven charged track reconstruction continues to push the boundaries of precision and discovery in nuclear physics. In these proceedings, we highlight advancements in charged track identification leveraging Artificial Intelligence within the CLAS12 detector, achieving a notable enhancement in experimental statistics compared to traditional methods. Additionally, we showcase real-time event reconstruction capabilities, including the inference of charged particle properties, such as momentum, direction, and species identification, at speeds matching data acquisition rates. These innovations enable the extraction of physics observables directly from the experiment in real-time.

Gavalian, Gagik (ORCID:0000000267385457)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precision Computations in Strongly Coupled Conformal Field Theories (Final Technical Report)

Conformal Field Theories (CFTs) are quantum field theories that are invariant under the conformal symmetry group (which includes translations and rotations, but also local rescalings of spacetime). They are building blocks of general quantum field theories, and appear in many areas of physics, including statistical physics, condensed matter physics, particle physics, and quantum gravity. Because of their extra symmetries, the mathematical structure of CFTs is tightly constrained, and this leads to the idea of the ``conformal bootstrap," which is to use these mathematical structures to constrain, and in some cases determine, CFT observables. A new numerical implementation of the conformal bootstrap idea appeared in 2008 with the work of Rattazzi, Rychkov, Tonni, and Vichi. Their observation was that certain bootstrap constraints (conformal symmetry and unitarity) could be combined to yield a convex optimization problem that constraints CFT data. By solving this convex optimization problem on a computer, one could obtain bounds on observables like critical exponents and operator product expansion (OPE) coefficients. Over the course of this award, the PI has improved numerical bootstrap techniques by optimizing known algorithms and finding new ones for performing the required convex optimization computations. The PI has applied these techniques to compute high-precision observables in several important strongly-coupled systems. The PI has also explored both analytical and numerical bootstrap methods for constraining the space of low energy effective field theories of quantum gravity, and developed new analytical techniques for CFT and QFT more broadly.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Orbit-averaging and deposition accuracy for runaway electron beams in hybrid kinetic-MHD simulations of the runaway plateau

We develop a new procedure that combines the kinetic orbit runaway electron code (KORC) and the NIMROD extended-magnetohydrodynamic code to simulate runaway electrons (REs) in the post-disruption plateau. KORC integrates guiding-center orbits, with a barycentric-based binary search strategy providing initial guesses for the Newton–Raphson logical-to-physical coordinate inversion, ensuring reliable particle-to-mesh mapping in NIMROD, whose fields remain static for the present study. Samples are drawn in accord with experimental parallel current profiles of RE beams during the plateau phase. Deposition in NIMROD is verified through comparison with a Python-based finite-element code that ensures periodicity in the poloidal direction and continuity at the magnetic axis. Accurate representation of near-axis fields requires finer mesh resolution to prevent under- and overshoots in current density from orbit inaccuracies. Yet, at a fixed particle count, increasing mesh resolution amplifies statistical noise in the deposited fields. An orbit-averaging method accumulates partial current deposits over multiple kinetic steps and reduces the statistical noise with little added computational cost. By coupling kinetic routines from KORC directly into the NIMROD codebase, these developments lay essential groundwork for future self-consistent KORC–NIMROD coupling.

Algorithms and data structure↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling distributed energy resource aggregations in security constrained unit commitment and economic dispatch

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) recently issued Order 2222, which requires all wholesale electricity markets in the US to allow distributed energy resources (DERs) to participate in the market as aggregated resources. These DER aggregations may be composed of many individual resources that are offered and dispatched by the market as a single entity. We present here a model of a distributed energy resource aggregator (DERA) that is scheduled by a market operator’s security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) and security constrained economic dispatch (SCED). The DERA model includes constraints for battery energy storage systems (BESSs), demand response resources (DRRs), and a simple distributed energy resource (DER). This paper describes a model for each resource type and presents two methods for the DERA to generate market offer curves: a profit-maximizing optimization to compute cost curves and a direct cost algorithm to determine dispatch costs for each resource and combine into cost curves. Once all participating DERAs are scheduled in SCUC/SCED, the model is then modified to dispatch individual DERs to maximize profit or minimize schedule deviation of the DERAs. A simulation of a representative day illustrates the DERA offers, the scheduled generation, and the DERA dispatch. Findings show the potential for unavoidable schedule deviations due to internal DER constraints and due to economic incentives to deviate from the SCUC/SCED schedules. This highlights the importance of DERA offer construction on market efficiency and system reliability. Novel aspects of our approach include: (1) We consider the asymmetry of price incentives impacting DERAs from the wholesale market compared to those impacting consumers from the retail market, as imposed by current regulations and laws. (2) We model aggregate consumer response through statistically parameterizable utility functions rather than a potentially impractical approach of modeling each individual consumer. (3) We show how to use the DERA operational dispatch model to create offers into the wholesale electricity market. (4) We show how DERAs may fail to meet their scheduled dispatch because the market offer format may not permit them to fully express their operational features such as intertemporal costs and constraints to the market.

aggregations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Polarized Dust Emission Using Data from the First Flight of SPIDER

Using data from the first flight of Spider and from the Planck High Frequency Instrument, we probe the properties of polarized emission from interstellar dust in the Spider observing region. Component-separation algorithms operating in both the spatial and harmonic domains are applied to probe their consistency and to quantify modeling errors associated with their assumptions. Analyses of diffuse Galactic dust emission spanning the full Spider region demonstrate (i) a spectral energy distribution that is broadly consistent with a modified-blackbody (MBB) model with a spectral index of β d = 1.45 ± 0.05 (1.47 ± 0.06) for E (B)-mode polarization, slightly lower than that reported by Planck for the full sky; (ii) an angular power spectrum broadly consistent with a power law; and (iii) no significant detection of line-of-sight polarization decorrelation. Tests of several modeling uncertainties find only a modest impact (~10% in σ r ) on Spider's sensitivity to the cosmological tensor-to-scalar ratio. The size of the Spider region further allows for a statistically meaningful analysis of the variation in foreground properties within it. Assuming a fixed dust temperature T d = 19.6 K, an analysis of two independent subregions of that field results in inferred values of β d = 1.52 ± 0.06 and β d = 1.09 ± 0.09, which are inconsistent at the 3.9σ level. Furthermore, a joint analysis of Spider and Planck 217 and 353 GHz data within one subregion is inconsistent with a simple MBB at more than 3σ, assuming a common morphology of polarized dust emission over the full range of frequencies. This evidence of variation may inform the component-separation approaches of future cosmic microwave background polarization experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

sOPTICS: a modified density-based algorithm for identifying galaxy groups/clusters and brightest cluster galaxies

A direct approach to studying the galaxy–halo connection is to analyse groups and clusters of galaxies that trace the underlying dark matter haloes, emphasizing the importance of identifying galaxy clusters and their associated brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). In this work, we test and propose a robust density-based clustering algorithm that outperforms the traditional Friends-of-Friends (FoF) algorithm in the currently available galaxy group/cluster catalogues. Our new approach is a modified version of the Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithm, which accounts for line-of-sight positional uncertainties due to redshift space distortions by incorporating a scaling factor, and is thereby referred to as sOPTICS. When tested on both a galaxy group catalogue based on semi-analytic galaxy formation simulations and observational data, our algorithm demonstrated robustness to outliers and relative insensitivity to hyperparameter choices. In total, we compared the results of eight clustering algorithms. The proposed density-based clustering method, sOPTICS, outperforms FoF in accurately identifying giant galaxy clusters and their associated BCGs in various environments with higher purity and recovery rate, also successfully recovering 115 BCGs out of 118 reliable BCGs from a large galaxy sample. Furthermore, when applied to an independent observational catalogue without extensive re-tuning, sOPTICS maintains high recovery efficiency, confirming its flexibility and effectiveness for large-scale astronomical surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Differentially Private Map Matching (DPMM) v1.0

Human mobility trajectories provide valuable information for developing mobility applications, as they contain diverse and rich information about the users. User mobility data is valuable for various applications such as intelligent transportation systems (ITS), commercial business models, and disease-spread models. However, such spatio-temporal traces may pose a threat to user privacy. GPS trajectories in their raw form are not suitable for transportation studies, as they require matching locations with nearest road links — a process called map-matching. This software implements a differential privacy (DP)-based map-matching algorithm, called DPMM, that generates link-level location trajectories in a privacy-preserving manner to protect users' origin destinations (OD) and travel paths. OD privacy is achieved by injecting Planar Laplace noise to the user OD GPS points. Travel-path privacy is provided with randomized travel path construction using exponential DP mechanism. The injected noise level is selected adaptively, by considering the link density of the location and the functional category of the localized links. For path privacy, our mechanism samples waypoints and selects candidate paths between waypoints. DPMM provides privacy effectively with respect to link density instead of other trajectory samples in the database compared to other privacy mechanisms. Compared to the different baseline models our DP-based privacy model offers closer query responses to the raw data in terms of individual and aggregate trajectory-level statistics with an average at absolute deviation from the baseline for individual statistics on ϵ = 1.0. Beyond individual trajectory statistics, the DPMM outperforms the other benchmark DP-based mechanisms on different aggregate statistics with up to 8x improvement in utility.

Peisert, Sean [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗