Constraining NOvA physics model parameters with the Near Detector using Frequentist and Bayesian statistical techniques [Poster]
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72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
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Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and optimal prediction of partially-observed complex systems
Abstract Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently outperform physics-based models for systems with few observable degrees of freedom; e.g. hydrological systems. Here, we provide an operator-theoretic explanation for this empirical success. To predict a partially-observed system’s future behavior with physics-based models, the missing degrees of freedom must be explicitly accounted for using data assimilation and model parametrization. Data-driven models, in contrast, employ delay-coordinate embeddings and their evolution under the Koopman operator to implicitly model the effects of the missing degrees of freedom. We describe in detail the statistical physics of partial observations underlying data-driven models using novel maximum entropy and maximum caliber measures. The resulting nonequilibrium Wiener projections applied to the Mori–Zwanzig formalism reveal how data-driven models may converge to the true dynamics of the observable degrees of freedom. Additionally, this framework shows how data-driven models infer the effects of unobserved degrees of freedom implicitly, in much the same way that physics models infer the effects explicitly. This provides a unified implicit-explicit modeling framework for predicting partially-observed systems, with hybrid physics-informed machine learning methods combining both implicit and explicit aspects.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Onset of synchronization in networks of second-order Kuramoto oscillators with delayed coupling: Exact results and application to phase-locked loops
Not Available
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Explainable AI classification for parton density theory
Quantitatively connecting properties of parton distribution functions (PDFs, or parton densities) to the theoretical assumptions made within the QCD analyses which produce them has been a longstanding problem in HEP phenomenology. To confront this challenge, we introduce an ML-based explainability framework, XAI4PDF, to classify PDFs by parton flavor or underlying theoretical model using ResNet-like neural networks (NNs). By leveraging the differentiable nature of ResNet models, this approach deploys guided backpropagation to dissect relevant features of fitted PDFs, identifying x-dependent signatures of PDFs important to the ML model classifications. By applying our framework, we are able to sort PDFs according to the analysis which produced them while constructing quantitative, human-readable maps locating the x regions most affected by the internal theory assumptions going into each analysis. This technique expands the toolkit available to PDF analysis and adjacent particle phenomenology while pointing to promising generalizations.
Artificial Intelligence↗
An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS
Neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) is a powerful class of machine-learning-based methods for statistical inference that naturally handles high-dimensional parameter estimation without the need to bin data into low-dimensional summary histograms. Such methods are promising for a range of measurements, including at the Large Hadron Collider, where no single observable may be optimal to scan over the entire theoretical phase space under consideration, or where binning data into histograms could result in a loss of sensitivity. This work develops a NSBI framework for statistical inference, using neural networks to estimate probability density ratios, which enables the application to a full-scale analysis. It incorporates a large number of systematic uncertainties, quantifies the uncertainty due to the finite number of events in training samples, develops a method to construct confidence intervals, and demonstrates a series of intermediate diagnostic checks that can be performed to validate the robustness of the method. As an example, the power and feasibility of the method are assessed on simulated data for a simplified version of an off-shell Higgs boson couplings measurement in the four-lepton final states. This approach represents an extension to the standard statistical methodology used by the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, and can benefit many physics analyses.
frequentist statistics↗
Model reduction methods for nuclear emulators
The field of model order reduction (MOR) is growing in importance due to its ability to extract the key insights from complex simulations while discarding computationally burdensome and superfluous information. We provide an overview of MOR methods for the creation of fast & accurate emulators of memory- and compute-intensive nuclear systems, focusing on eigen-emulators and variational emulators. As an example, we describe how 'eigenvector continuation' is a special case of a much more general and well-studied MOR formalism for parameterized systems. We continue with an introduction to the Ritz and Galerkin projection methods that underpin many such emulators, while pointing to the relevant MOR theory and its successful applications along the way. Here, we believe that this guide will open the door to broader applications in nuclear physics and facilitate communication with practitioners in other fields.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Grid-based minimization at scale: Feldman-Cousins corrections for light sterile neutrino search
High Energy Physics (HEP) experiments generally employ sophisticated statistical methods to present results in searches of new physics. In the problem of searching for sterile neutrinos, likelihood ratio tests are applied to short-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments to construct confidence intervals for the parameters of interest. The test statistics of the form Δχ2 is often used to form the confidence intervals, however, this approach can lead to statistical inaccuracies due to the small signal rate in the region-of-interest. In this paper, we present a computational model for the computationally expensive Feldman-Cousins corrections to construct a statistically accurate confidence interval for neutrino oscillation analysis. The program performs a grid-based minimization over oscillation parameters and is written in C++. Our algorithms make use of vectorization through Eigen3, yielding a single-core speed-up of 350 compared to the original implementation, and achieve MPI data parallelism by employing DIY. We demonstrate the strong scaling of the application at High-Performance Computing (HPC) sites. We utilize HDF5 along with HighFive to write the results of the calculation to file.
Wospakrik, Marianette↗
Properties of giant dipole resonances within an extended pairing model with a focus on spectral statistics
In this paper, we report on a study of the spectral features associated with dipole resonances in medium mass nuclei (E ≤ 12 MeV), as revealed in the framework of the spd-interacting boson model. The effect of pairing correlations on the theory follows from solutions obtained through an application of the Bethe Ansatz Equation. In general, calculated spectra around the critical point of the vibrational to γ-soft transitions appears to approach that of a Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble, while near the rotational and vibrational limits of the theory the spectra show more regular behavior. Specifically, the results reveal that the statistical features of the spectra are sensitive to the vector boson pairing strength, c p , in the transition region; that is, when c p is zero, or when the system approaches one of its dynamical symmetries limits the spectrum display regular features, while for stronger c p values, or when near to the critical phase transition region, the spectral feature show more chaotic behavior. Overall, our results indicate that the statistical features are governed by the interplay between dipole resonant energies, pairing correlations, and interactions between and among the single and vector bosons modes of the theory. As part of this work we also found out that chaoticity occurs when results were fit to a Berry-Robnik distribution. Throughout our analyses, we used experimentally known information about both positive and negative parity states. Our findings suggest that dipole resonances appear to be best-described by Poisson statistics for A ≈ 32-138 nuclei.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Phase Diagram of a Deep Potential Water Model
Using the Deep Potential methodology, we construct a model that reproduces accurately the potential energy surface of the SCAN approximation of density functional theory for water, from low temperature and pressure to about 2400 K and 50 GPa, excluding the vapor stability region. The computational efficiency of the model makes it possible to predict its phase diagram using molecular dynamics. Satisfactory overall agreement with experimental results is obtained. Here, the fluid phases, molecular and ionic, and all the stable ice polymorphs, ordered and disordered, are predicted correctly, with the exception of ice III and XV that are stable in experiments, but metastable in the model. The evolution of the atomic dynamics upon heating, as ice VII transforms first into ice VII" and then into an ionic fluid, reveals that molecular dissociation and breaking of the ice rules coexist with strong covalent fluctuations, explaining why only partial ionization was inferred in experiments.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Understanding relative metal prices and availability: Combining physical and economic perspectives
Abstract Scientists typically use physical indicators, such as average crustal abundance, and energy requirements in production, as measures of the availability of mineral resources. Economists, on the other hand, typically rely on measures such as prices, and extraction costs. This study investigates the role of crustal abundance, energy requirements, and other physical indicators in determining relative metal prices. The relationship between prices, and physical indicators is estimated statistically for a sample of 22 chemical elements over the period 1970–2013 using an economic market model. The results suggest that energy requirements in production explain 43% of observed variation in metal prices, crustal abundance 21%, and other physical indicators (toxicity, native metal status, and melting point) combine to explain 12% of the observed differences in metal prices.
Watson, Brett J.↗
A phase-shift-periodic parallel boundary condition for low-magnetic-shear scenarios
Abstract We formulate a generalized periodic boundary condition as a limit of the standard twist-and-shift parallel boundary condition that is suitable for simulations of plasmas with low magnetic shear. This is done by applying a phase shift in the binormal direction when crossing the parallel boundary. While this phase shift can be set to zero without loss of generality in the local flux-tube limit when employing the twist-and-shift boundary condition, we show that this is not the most general case when employing periodic parallel boundaries, and may not even be the most desirable. A non-zero phase shift can be used to avoid the convective cells that plague simulations of the three-dimensional Hasegawa–Wakatani system, and is shown to have measurable effects in periodic low-magnetic-shear gyrokinetic simulations. We propose a numerical program where a sampling of periodic simulations at random pseudo-irrational flux surfaces are used to determine physical observables in a statistical sense. This approach can serve as an alternative to applying the twist-and-shift boundary condition to low-magnetic-shear scenarios, which, while more straightforward, can be computationally demanding.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
OpenUniverse2024: a shared, simulated view of the sky for the next generation of cosmological surveys
The OpenUniverse2024 simulation suite is a cross-collaboration effort to produce matched simulated imaging for multiple surveys as they would observe a common simulated sky. Both the simulated data and associated tools used to produce it are intended to uniquely enable a wide range of studies to maximize the science potential of the next generation of cosmological surveys. We have produced simulated imaging for approximately 70 deg 2 of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Wide-Fast-Deep survey and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope High-Latitude Wide-Area Survey, as well as overlapping versions of the ELAIS-S1 Deep-Drilling Field for LSST and the High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey for Roman. OpenUniverse2024 includes (i) an early version of the updated extragalactic model called Diffsky, which substantially improves the realism of optical and infrared photometry of objects, compared to previous versions of these models; (ii) updated transient models that extend through the wavelength range probed by Roman and Rubin; and (iii) improved survey, telescope, and instrument realism based on up-to-date survey plans and known properties of the instruments. It is built on a new and updated suite of simulation tools that improves the ease of consistently simulating multiple observatories viewing the same sky. The approximately 400 TB of synthetic survey imaging and simulated universe catalogs are publicly available, and we preview some scientific uses of the simulations.
large-scale structure of Universe↗
Exact representations of many-body interactions with restricted-Boltzmann-machine neural networks
Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) are simple statistical models defined on a bipartite graph which have been successfully used in studying more complicated many-body systems, both classical and quantum. In this work, we exploit the representation power of RBMs to provide an exact decomposition of many-body contact interactions into one-body operators coupled to discrete auxiliary fields. This construction generalizes the well known Hirsch's transform used for the Hubbard model to more complicated theories such as pionless effective field theory in nuclear physics, which we analyze in detail. Finally, we also discuss possible applications of our mapping for quantum annealing applications and conclude with some implications for RBM parameter optimization through machine learning.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling
Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
How to calculate the rate constants for nonradiative transitions between the M S components of spin multiplets?
Predicting the rates of spin-dependent processes characterized by nonradiative transitions between electronic states with different spin multiplicities is important for understanding the mechanisms of many photochemical and catalytic reactions. To calculate these rates, it is necessary to define the spin state representation and the couplings between these states that drives the interstate transitions. In this work, we describe three different approaches to calculating the spin-orbit coupling (SOC), transition probabilities, and rate constants between the MS components of the electronic states with different spin multiplicities. We implemented these approaches in our nonadiabatic statistical theory (NAST) software package, which predicts the transition probabilities and rate constants of spin-dependent processes using information obtained from electronic structure calculations. Here, we discuss the advantage and drawbacks of each approach and, as an example, calculate the rate constants for transitions between the spin states in the active site model of the protein rubredoxin.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Glueballs at physical pion mass
Glueballs are investigated through gluonic operators on two $ N_f=2+1 $ RBC/UKQCD gauge ensembles at the physical pion mass. The statistical errors of glueball correlation functions are considerably reduced through the cluster decomposition error reduction (CDER) method. The Bethe-Salpeter wave functions are obtained for the scalar, tensor, and pseudoscalar glueballs by using spatially extended glueball operators defined through the gauge potential $ A_\mu(x) $ in the Coulomb gauge. These wave functions exhibit similar features of non-relativistic two-gluon systems and are used to optimize the signals of the related correlation functions at the early time regions, where the ground state masses are extracted. These masses are close to those from the quenched approximation and indicate the possible existence of glueballs at the physical point. The resonance feature of glueballs and the mixing with conventional mesons and multi-hadron systems should be considered in a more systematic lattice study.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
The case for digital twins in metal additive manufacturing
The digital twin (DT) is a relatively new concept that is finding increased acceptance in industry. A DT is generally considered as comprising a physical entity, its virtual replica, and two-way digital data communications in-between. Its primary purpose is to leverage the process intelligence captured within digital models—or usually their faster-solving surrogates—towards generating increased value from the physical entities. The surrogate models are created using machine learning based on data obtained from the field, experiments and digital models, which may be physics-based or statistics-based. Anomaly detection and correction, and diagnostic closed-loop process control are examples of how a process DT can be deployed. In the manufacturing industry, its use can achieve improvements in product quality and process productivity. Metal additive manufacturing (AM) stands to gain tremendously from the use of DTs. This is because the AM process is inherently chaotic, resulting in poor repeatability. However, a DT acting in a supervisory role can inject certainty into the process by actively keeping it within bounds through real-time control commands. Closed-loop feedforward control is achieved by observing the process through sensors that monitor critical parameters and, if there are any deviations from their respective optimal ranges, suitable corrective actions are triggered. The type of corrective action (e.g. a change in laser power or a modification to the scanning speed) and its magnitude are determined by interrogating the surrogate models. Because of their artificial intelligence (AI)-endowed predictive capabilities, which allow them to foresee a future state of the physical twin (e.g. the AM process), DTs proactively take context-sensitive preventative steps, whereas traditional closed-loop feedback control is usually reactive. Apart from assisting a build process in real-time, a DT can help with planning the build of a part by pinpointing the optimum processing window relevant to the desired outcome. Again, the surrogate models are consulted to obtain the required information. In this article, we explain how the application of DTs to the metal AM process can significantly widen its application space by making the process more repeatable (through quality assurance) and cheaper (by getting builds right the first time).
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Fluctuations of subsystem entropies at late times
We study the fluctuations of subsystem entropies in closed quantum many-body systems after thermalization. Using a combination of analytics and numerics for both random quantum circuits and Hamiltonian dynamics, we find that the statistics of such entropy fluctuations is drastically different than in the classical setting. For instance, shortly after a system thermalizes, the probability of entropy fluctuations for a subregion is suppressed in the dimension of the Hilbert space of the complementary subregion. This suppression becomes increasingly stringent as a function of time, ultimately depending on the exponential of the Hilbert space dimension, until extremely late times when the amount of suppression saturates. We also use our results to estimate the total number of rare fluctuations at large timescales. We find that the “Boltzmann brain” paradox is largely ameliorated in quantum many-body systems, in contrast with the classical setting.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗