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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

Statistical Analysis of a Debugging Model

Suppose that a system is undergoing a sequence of trials and design changes in an effort to find and eliminate design flaws in the system. Specifically, suppose that each trial is classified as an assignable cause failure (if the failure is due to one or more design flaws), an inherent failure (if the failure is not due to a design flaw), or a success. After each assignable cause failure, the design flaws that caused the failure are removed. In the case of statistically independent and identical design flaws, a probabilistic model is developed to describe this debugging process. Explicit expressions are obtained for the distributions of the important random variables and for the important measures of reliability. Statistical methods are developed for estimating the parameters of the model from accumulated test data.

Siegrist, K.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Statistical analysis of multivariate atmospheric variables

Topics covered include: (1) estimation in discrete multivariate distributions; (2) a procedure to predict cloud cover frequencies in the bivariate case; (3) a program to compute conditional bivariate normal parameters; (4) the transformation of nonnormal multivariate to near-normal; (5) test of fit for the extreme value distribution based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (6) test of fit for continuous distributions based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (7) effect of correlated observations on confidence sets based upon chi-square statistics; and (8) generation of random variates from specified distributions.

Tubbs, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comments on the statistical analysis of excess variance in the COBE differential microwave radiometer maps

Cosmic anisotrophy produces an excess variance sq sigma(sub sky) in the Delta maps produced by the Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) on cosmic background explorer (COBE) that is over and above the instrument noise. After smoothing to an effective resolution of 10 deg, this excess sigma(sub sky)(10 deg), provides an estimate for the amplitude of the primordial density perturbation power spectrum with a cosmic uncertainty of only 12%. We employ detailed Monte Carlo techniques to express the amplitude derived from this statistic in terms of the universal root mean square (rms) quadrupole amplitude, (Q sq/RMS)(exp 0.5). The effects of monopole and dipole subtraction and the non-Gaussian shape of the DMR beam cause the derived (Q sq/RMS)(exp 0.5) to be 5%-10% larger than would be derived using simplified analytic approximations. We also investigate the properties of two other map statistics: the actual quadrupole and the Boughn-Cottingham statistic. Both the sigma(sub sky)(10 deg) statistic and the Boughn-Cottingham statistic are consistent with the (Q sq/RMS)(exp 0.5) = 17 +/- 5 micro K reported by Smoot et al. (1992) and Wright et al. (1992).

Wright, E. L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Relationship Between Column-Density and Surface Mixing Ratio: Statistical Analysis of O3 and NO2 Data from the July 2011 Maryland DISCOVER-AQ Mission

To investigate the ability of column (or partial column) information to represent surface air quality, results of linear regression analyses between surface mixing ratio data and column abundances for O3 and NO2 are presented for the July 2011 Maryland deployment of the DISCOVER-AQ mission. Data collected by the P-3B aircraft, ground-based Pandora spectrometers, Aura/OMI satellite instrument, and simulations for July 2011 from the CMAQ air quality model during this deployment provide a large and varied data set, allowing this problem to be approached from multiple perspectives. O3 columns typically exhibited a statistically significant and high degree of correlation with surface data (R(sup 2) > 0.64) in the P- 3B data set, a moderate degree of correlation (0.16 < R(sup 2) < 0.64) in the CMAQ data set, and a low degree of correlation (R(sup 2) < 0.16) in the Pandora and OMI data sets. NO2 columns typically exhibited a low to moderate degree of correlation with surface data in each data set. The results of linear regression analyses for O3 exhibited smaller errors relative to the observations than NO2 regressions. These results suggest that O3 partial column observations from future satellite instruments with sufficient sensitivity to the lower troposphere can be meaningful for surface air quality analysis.

nitrogen dioxide↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.

Rowell, Ginger Holmes↗
NASA NTRS1960

An Exploratory Statistical Analysis of a Planet Approach-Phase Guidance Scheme Using Angular Measurements with Significant Error

An exploratory analysis of vehicle guidance during the approach to a target planet is presented. The objective of the guidance maneuver is to guide the vehicle to a specific perigee distance with a high degree of accuracy and minimum corrective velocity expenditure. The guidance maneuver is simulated by considering the random sampling of real measurements with significant error and reducing this information to prescribe appropriate corrective action. The instrumentation system assumed includes optical and/or infrared devices to indicate range and a reference angle in the trajectory plane. Statistical results are obtained by Monte-Carlo techniques and are shown as the expectation of guidance accuracy and velocity-increment requirements. Results are nondimensional and applicable to any planet within limits of two-body assumptions. The problem of determining how many corrections to make and when to make them is a consequence of the conflicting requirement of accurate trajectory determination and propulsion. Optimum values were found for a vehicle approaching a planet along a parabolic trajectory with an initial perigee distance of 5 radii and a target perigee of 1.02 radii. In this example measurement errors were less than i minute of arc. Results indicate that four corrections applied in the vicinity of 50, 16, 15, and 1.5 radii, respectively, yield minimum velocity-increment requirements. Thrust devices capable of producing a large variation of velocity-increment size are required. For a vehicle approaching the earth, miss distances within 32 miles are obtained with 90-percent probability. Total velocity increments used in guidance are less than 3300 feet per second with 90-percent probability. It is noted that the above representative results are valid only for the particular guidance scheme hypothesized in this analysis. A parametric study is presented which indicates the effects of measurement error size, initial perigee, and initial energy on the guidance requirements. Measurement error size significantly affects both guidance accuracy and velocity-increment expenditure. The initial trajectory, as given by its perigee and energy, affects the velocity-increment expenditure but not final guidance accuracy.

Friedlander, Alan L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design and Construction of a High-Resolution Hodoscope for the GlueX Experiment with High-Statistics Analysis of the p0, ¿, and ¿1 Photoproduction Cross Sections from the RadPhi Experiment

Differential cross sections for forward-angle photoproduction of p0, ¿, and ¿ 1 pseudoscalar mesons were measured using data from the RadPhi experiment conducted in Hall B at Jef ferson Lab. RadPhi utilized a tagged bremsstrahlung photon beam incident on a stationary 9Be target, with a detector system configured to trigger on a recoil proton in coincidence with multiple neutral showers in the calorimeter. Events were reconstructed and subjected to kinematic constraints, with background suppressed via sideband subtraction guided by Monte Carlo modeling of background contributions. Cross sections were extracted over the photon energy range 4.4– 5.4 GeV and binned in invariant momentum transfer t, providing measurements from one of the first high-statistics experiments of forward ¿ and ¿1 pro duction from a nuclear target at these energies. Acceptance corrections were applied using a detailed GEANT-based simulation of the detector geometry and response. The resulting cross sections are consistent with 2020 CLAS results, when scaled by the number of protons in beryllium, and show broad agreement with other data and theoretical models. In parallel, a high-resolution photon tagger detector, the Tagger Microscope (TAGM), was designed, constructed, and commissioned for the GlueX experiment in Hall D at Jefferson Lab. The TAGM was developed to provide high-rate tagging capability in the coherent bremsstrahlung peak by detecting post-bremsstrahlung electrons across a one GeV range along the focal plane of the tagging spectrometer. The detector consists of a 5ˆ102 array of 2ˆ2 mm2 square BCF-20 plastic scintillating fibers thermally fused to BCF-98 light guide fibers optically coupled to silicon photomultipliers. These fibers are mounted in a precision machined framework enabling fine positional adjustments to maintain precise alignment with post-bremsstrahlung electron trajectories, while ensuring mechanical rigidity, thermal stability, optical isolation, minimal inactive area, and radiation shielding for electronics. The construction effort involved extensive testing of fiber quality, light transmission, thermal fusing, radiation hardness, and defect analysis using SEM and EDX techniques. Following its installation and commissioning, the TAGM became a critical component of the GlueX beamline, enabling high-rate tagging essential for studies of hybrid mesons and gluonic ex citations.

McIntyre, James [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT ↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical analysis of AFE GN&C aeropass performance

Performance of the guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system used on the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) spacecraft has been studied with Monte Carlo techniques. The performance of the AFE GN&C is investigated with a 6-DOF numerical dynamic model which includes a Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) and a gravitational model with oblateness corrections. The study considers all the uncertainties due to the environment and the system itself. In the AFE's aeropass phase, perturbations on the system performance are caused by an error space which has over 20 dimensions of the correlated/uncorrelated error sources. The goal of this study is to determine, in a statistical sense, how much flight path angle error can be tolerated at entry interface (EI) and still have acceptable delta-V capability at exit to position the AFE spacecraft for recovery. Assuming there is fuel available to produce 380 ft/sec of delta-V at atmospheric exit, a 3-sigma standard deviation in flight path angle error of 0.04 degrees at EI would result in a 98-percent probability of mission success.

Chang, Ho-Pen↗
NASA NTRS1975

A statistical analysis of data extraction for land cover information from high-altitude and satellite images

Land cover information from a 10 by 30 km test site in eastern Wisconsin extracted using 70 mm positive LANDSAT transparencies in an additive color viewer at a scale of 1:500,000 was compared with land cover information extracted using LANDSAT 9 x 9 inch positive transparencies at a scale of 1:1,000,000. Color infrared photography (NASA RB-57) at a scale of 1:60,000 provided ground truth for each land cover type. Interpretations were made for four land cover classes: 1) forest-brushland; (2) structures-barren land; (3) surface water; and (4) agricultural-open land. Statistical comparisons showed that neither method for the extraction of this data was clearly superior.

Kiefer, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Coupling Fractional Thermal Runaway Calorimetry (FTRC) Results with Statistical Analysis Methods

Important factors to consider when optimizing Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery thermal management systems, from a battery safety perspective, include the total energy released during a single cell thermal runaway (TR) event and the fraction of the total energy that is released through the cell casing versus through the ejecta material. A fractional thermal runaway calorimeter (FTRC) was used to examine the TR behavior of the following 18650-format Li-ion cells: (1) Molicel 18650-J, (2) LG 18650-HG2, (3) Samsung 18650-30Q, (4) 3.35 Ah LG 18650 test cell, (5) Sony 18650-VC7, and (6) LG 18650-MJ1. These cells were intentionally selected to represent a variety of manufacturers, chemistries, capacities, and safety features. Because of the large number of random and non-random variables associated with the FTRC results, a linear regression model, developed using engineering statistical methods, was utilized to provide final interpretation of the TR behavior for each cell type and design variable combination.

Walker, William↗
NASA NTRS1994

A statistical analysis of the dependency of closure assumptions in cumulus parameterization on the horizontal resolution

Simulated data from the UCLA cumulus ensemble model are used to investigate the quasi-universal validity of closure assumptions used in existing cumulus parameterizations. A closure assumption is quasi-universally valid if it is sensitive neither to convective cloud regimes nor to horizontal resolutions of large-scale/mesoscale models. The dependency of three types of closure assumptions, as classified by Arakawa and Chen, on the horizontal resolution is addressed in this study. Type I is the constraint on the coupling of the time tendencies of large-scale temperature and water vapor mixing ratio. Type II is the constraint on the coupling of cumulus heating and cumulus drying. Type III is a direct constraint on the intensity of a cumulus ensemble. The macroscopic behavior of simulated cumulus convection is first compared with the observed behavior in view of Type I and Type II closure assumptions using 'quick-look' and canonical correlation analyses. It is found that they are statistically similar to each other. The three types of closure assumptions are further examined with simulated data averaged over selected subdomain sizes ranging from 64 to 512 km. It is found that the dependency of Type I and Type II closure assumptions on the horizontal resolution is very weak and that Type III closure assumption is somewhat dependent upon the horizontal resolution. The influences of convective and mesoscale processes on the closure assumptions are also addressed by comparing the structures of canonical components with the corresponding vertical profiles in the convective and stratiform regions of cumulus ensembles analyzed directly from simulated data. The implication of these results for cumulus parameterization is discussed.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗
NASA NTRS1993

Statistical analysis of environmental variability within the CELSS breadboard project's biomass production chamber

Variability in the aerial and root environments of NASA's Breadboard Project's Biomass Production Chamber (BPC) was determined. Data from two lettuce and two potato growouts were utilized. One growout of each crop was conducted prior to separating the upper and lower chambers; the other was subsequent to separation. There were little or no differences in pH, EC, or solution temperature between the upper and lower chamber or within a chamber. Variation in the aerial environment within a chamber was two to three times greater than variation between chambers for air temperature, relative humidity, and PPF. High variability in air velocity, relative to tray position, was observed. Separating the BPC had no effect on PPF, air velocity, solution temperature, pH, or EC. Separation reduced the gradient in air temperature and relative humidity between the upper and lower chambers, but increased the variability within a chamber. Variation between upper and lower chambers was within 5 percent of environmental set-points and of little or no physiological significance. In contrast, the variability within a chamber limits the capability of the BPC to generate statistically reliable data from individual tray treatments at this time.

Stutte, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Statistical Analysis of Laser Ablated Ba(Sub 0.50)Sr(Sub 0.50)TiO(Sub 3)/LaAlO(Sub 3) Films for Microwave Applications

The NASA Glenn Research Center is constructing a 616 element scanning phased array antenna using thin film Ba(sub x)Sr(sub 1-x)TiO(sub 3) based phase shifters. A critical milestone is the production of 616 identical phase shifters at 19 GHz with [asymptotically equal to]4 dB insertion loss and at least 337.5 deg phase shift with 3 percent bandwidth. It is well known that there is a direct relationship between dielectric tuning and loss due to the Kramers-Kronig relationship and that film crystallinity and strain, affected by the substrate template, play an important role. Ba(sub 0.50)Sr(sub 0.50)TiO (sub 3) films, nominally 400 nm thick, were deposited on 48 0.25 mm thick, 5 cm diameter LaAlO(sub 3) wafers. Although previous results suggested that Mn-doped films on MgO were intrinsically superior in terms of phase shift per unit loss, for this application phase shift per unit length was more important. The composition was selected as a compromise between tuning and loss for room temperature operation (e.g. crystallinity progressively degrades for Ba concentrations in excess of 30 percent). As a prelude to fabricating the array, it was necessary to process, screen, and inventory a large number of samples. Variable angle ellipsometry was used to characterize refractive index and film thickness across each wafer. Microstructural properties of the thin films were characterized using high resolution X-ray diffractometry. Finally, prototype phase shifters and resonators were patterned on each wafer and RE probed to measure tuning as a function of dc bias voltage as well as peak (0 field) permittivity and unloaded Q. The relationship among film quality and uniformity and performance is analyzed. This work presents the first statistically relevant study of film quality and microwave performance and represents a milestone towards commercialization of thin ferroelectric films for microwave applications.

Ferroelectric thin films↗
NASA NTRS2017

Statistical Analysis of Instantaneous Frequency Scaling Factor as Derived from Optical Disdrometer Measurements at V/W Bands

Since October 2015, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) have collaboratively operated an RF terrestrial link in Albuquerque, New Mexico to characterize atmospheric propagation phenomena at 72 and 84 GHz. The W/V-band Terrestrial Link Experiment (WTLE) consists of coherent transmitters at each frequency on the crest of the Sandia Mountains and a corresponding pair of receivers in south Albuquerque. The beacon receivers provide a direct measurement of the link attenuation, while concurrent weather instrumentation provides a measurement of the atmospheric conditions. Among the available weather instruments is an optical disdrometer which yields an optical measurement of rain rate, as well as droplet size and velocity distributions (DSD, DVD). In particular, the DSD can be used to derive an instantaneous scaling factor (ISF) by which the measured data at one frequency can be scaled to another - for example, scaling the 72 GHz to an expected 84 GHz timeseries. Given the availability of both the DSD prediction and the directly observed 84 GHz attenuation, WTLE is thus uniquely able assess DSD-derived instantaneous frequency scaling at the V/W-bands. Previous work along these lines has investigated the DSD-derived ISF at Ka and Q-band (20 GHz to 40 GHz) using a satellite beacon receiver experiment in Milan, Italy. This work will expand the investigation to terrestrial links in the V/W-bands, where the frequency scaling factor is lower and where the link is also much more sensitive to attenuation by rain, clouds, and other atmospheric effects.

Radio Transmission↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical Analysis of Trans‐Ionospheric Pulse Pairs and Inferences on Their Characteristics

Trans-ionospheric pulse pairs (TIPPs), first observed in 1993, are signatures of in-cloud lightning discharges observed by satellite-based broadband very high frequency (VHF) receivers. It has been definitively shown that TIPPs are the space-based signatures of compact intracloud discharges (CIDs), and that the associated pair of pulses that comprise a TIPP result from the direct VHF pulse from the discharge, followed by a pulse reflected from the Earth's surface. However, the ratio of the peak amplitudes of these two pulses can vary widely, with the second pulse often having considerably higher peak amplitude than the first. This observation has not been satisfactorily explained. Using data collected from geostationary orbit by the Radio Frequency Sensor (RFS) and matched to locations reported by the Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360), we assemble the largest database to date of 76,348 TIPPs with associated location, altitude, and amplitude ratio of the two pulses in the TIPP. We show that the amplitude ratio of TIPPs is strongly correlated to the altitude of the associated discharges and the geometry of the source location with respect to the Earth's surface and the receiver. These observations strongly suggest that the difference in amplitude of the two pulses is driven by a nondipole radiated beam pattern that is dependent on the polarity of the CID, velocity of the current wavefront, and viewing angle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗