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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical approach to screening isotopic signatures in monitoring for underground nuclear explosions

The ability to differentiate between atmospheric radionuclide signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and signals from other sources, such as medical isotope-production facilities and nuclear reactors, can be critical to the detection and monitoring of unannounced, low-yield nuclear events. Signatures having anomalously high amplitudes, compared to background levels, remain the best indicator in screening for a UNE. However, isotopic composition can further validate a suspected UNE signature, but separation from any atmospheric background composition is first necessary. To date, evaluating the challenges of performing this separation has typically involved comparing an observed background with a highly idealized deterministic model of radioxenon signature production by a UNE that does not consider the influence of post-detonation chemical/physical processes in the detonation cavity or the subsequent gas transport mechanisms that can also affect the isotopic composition of the detected gas signature. In addition, purely deterministic models, as previously employed, overlook the uncertainty inherent in estimating critical parameters characterizing the UNE and its detonation environment. In this paper, we create detailed, multi-parameter models of radionuclide evolution using the widely accepted England and Rider post-detonation radionuclide decay-chain network coupled to detailed models simulating physical production and transport processes affecting the gas signature. Because these models are governed by uncertain parameters including barometric fluctuations, realistic ranges of variation for each of the parameters influencing isotopic composition are then defined. A Latin-Hypercube sampling approach is used to obtain a random distribution of isotopic production and gas transport results associated with a given value of each parameter. We apply these results to background histories of two stations, one providing 4-isotope background measurements and the other providing two-isotope measurements associated with the 2013 DPRK announced UNE.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2025

Critical statistical assessment of data in metal additive manufacturing

Obtaining high quality data reflecting the relationships between the additive manufacturing (AM) process parameters, material microstructure and mechanical properties is crucial for the use of machine learning in AM. A database of over 4,000 data entries of metal AM was created thanks to a large number of literature studies on key process parameters and indicators of build quality. Meta-analysis reveals critical biases in the literature. Firstly, majority of studies report only high quality builds, these imbalances in reporting result in weak correlation between process parameters, properties and consolidation, limiting the ability of machine learning models to generalize beyond optimized conditions. Nevertheless, the trained models accurately predict yield strength ($R^2 = 0.85$), suggesting that certain process–property relationships are effectively captured within these models. Secondly, quantitative microstructural data are largely absent, limiting the learning of the microstructure-mechanical properties relationships. Finally, current process window identification is based largely on the consolidation, despite significant uncertainty in its measurement. It is important to identify the process map on the basis of not only the consolidation, but also mechanical behaviour under loading. Such a identification shows that 316 L and Inconel have much larger process map (i.e. highly printable) in comparison to the AlSi10Mg and Ti6Al4V.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2025

MARLOWE: An Untargeted Proteomics, Statistical Approach to Taxonomic Classification for Forensics

General proteomics research for fundamental science typically addresses laboratory- or patient-derived samples of known origin and composition. However, in a few research areas, such as environmental proteomics, clinical identification of infectious organisms, archeology, art/cultural history, and forensics, attributing the origin of a protein-containing sample to the organisms that produced it is a central focus. A small number of groups have approached this problem and developed software tools for taxonomic characterization and/or identification using bottom-up proteomics. Most such tools identify peptides via database search, and many rely on organism-specific peptides as markers. Our group recently introduced MARLOWE, a software tool for taxonomic characterization of unknown samples based on de novo peptide identification and signal-erosion-resistant strong peptides, which are shared peptides distributed in a taxonomy-dependent manner. In the current work, we further characterize the utility of MARLOWE using publicly available proteomics data from forensically-relevant samples. MARLOWE characterizes samples based on their protein profile, and returns ranked organism lists of potential contributors and taxonomic scores based on shared strong peptides between organisms. Overall, the correct characterization rate ranges between 44 and 100%, depending on the sample type and data acquisition parameters (with lower numbers associated with lower-quality data sets). MARLOWE demonstrates successful characterization of true contributors and close relatives, and provides sufficient specificity to distinguish certain microbial species. MARLOWE demonstrates its ability to provide insight into potential taxonomic sources for a wide range of sample types without prior assumptions about sample contents. As a result, this approach can find utility in forensic science and also broadly in bioanalytical applications that utilize proteomics approaches for taxonomic characterization.

Bacteria↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gas Transfer Across Air‐Water Interfaces in Inland Waters: From Micro‐Eddies to Super‐Statistics

In inland water covering lakes, reservoirs, and ponds, the gas exchange of slightly soluble gases such as carbon dioxide, dimethyl sulfide, methane, or oxygen across a clean and nearly flat air‐water interface is routinely described using a water‐side mean gas transfer velocity $\overline{k_{L}}$, where overline indicates time or ensemble averaging. The micro‐eddy surface renewal model predicts $\overline{k_{L}}$ = α o Sc -1/2 ($v\bar{ϵ}$) 1/4 , where Sc is the molecular Schmidt number, $v$ is the water kinematic viscosity, and $\bar{ϵ}$ is the waterside mean turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate at or near the interface. While α o = 0.39 - 0.46 has been reported across a number of data sets, others report large scatter or variability around this value range. It is shown here that this scatter can be partly explained by high temporal variability in instantaneous ϵ around $\bar{ϵ}$, a mechanism that was not previously considered. As the coefficient of variation (CV e ) in ϵ increases, α o must be adjusted by a multiplier (1 = CV e 2 ) -3/32 that was derived from a log‐normal model for the probability density function of ϵ. Reported variations in α o with a macro‐scale Reynolds number can also be partly attributed to intermittency effects in ϵ. Such intermittency is characterized by the long‐range (i.e., power‐law decay) spatial auto‐correlation function of ϵ. That α o varies with a macro‐scale Reynolds number does not necessarily violate the micro‐eddy model. Instead, it points to a coordination between the macro‐ and micro‐scales arising from the transfer of energy across scales in the energy cascade.

Batchelor scale↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical Analysis of Trans‐Ionospheric Pulse Pairs and Inferences on Their Characteristics

Trans-ionospheric pulse pairs (TIPPs), first observed in 1993, are signatures of in-cloud lightning discharges observed by satellite-based broadband very high frequency (VHF) receivers. It has been definitively shown that TIPPs are the space-based signatures of compact intracloud discharges (CIDs), and that the associated pair of pulses that comprise a TIPP result from the direct VHF pulse from the discharge, followed by a pulse reflected from the Earth's surface. However, the ratio of the peak amplitudes of these two pulses can vary widely, with the second pulse often having considerably higher peak amplitude than the first. This observation has not been satisfactorily explained. Using data collected from geostationary orbit by the Radio Frequency Sensor (RFS) and matched to locations reported by the Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360), we assemble the largest database to date of 76,348 TIPPs with associated location, altitude, and amplitude ratio of the two pulses in the TIPP. We show that the amplitude ratio of TIPPs is strongly correlated to the altitude of the associated discharges and the geometry of the source location with respect to the Earth's surface and the receiver. These observations strongly suggest that the difference in amplitude of the two pulses is driven by a nondipole radiated beam pattern that is dependent on the polarity of the CID, velocity of the current wavefront, and viewing angle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistically elucidated responses from low-signal contrast mechanisms in ultrafast electron microscopy

The emergence of ultrafast electron microscopy (UEM) has enabled the discovery of strongly correlated dynamic mechanisms, including electron–phonon coupling, structural phase transitions, thermal transport, and electromagnetic deflection. Most UEM systems operate stroboscopically, meaning that the technique is susceptible to artifacts, mistakes, and misinterpretation of the data due to extensive experimental effort. In contrast to the ultrafast designation, data acquisition is extraordinarily slow because the electron beam has significantly reduced signal compared to traditional transmission electron microscopy due to pulsing the electron beam. Consequently, the sample may drift, tilt, or undergo irreversible structural changes that are independent of the time-resolved dynamics throughout the experimental time frame. Furthermore, these datasets require significant user interpretation that can be problematic when proper controls are not implemented thoroughly. Here, we demonstrate a new algorithm designed to separate ultrafast structural dynamics from long-term artifacts using a LiNbO 3 sample experiencing electrically driven surface acoustic wave propagation. Additionally, we provide examples of the impact of user bias when analyzing the data and provide a methodology, which enables the extraction of time-resolved responses when the image signal is extraordinarily low. Overall, the goal of this publication is to provide methods that validate the experimental results and reduce researcher biases during UEM data interpretation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical characterization of high voltage vacuum surface flashover with gapped and ungapped anodes

This manuscript reports the experimental study of a novel vacuum high-voltage (HV) feedthrough geometry with a recessed anode triple junction (ATJ) relevant to large-scale pulsed power systems. It is shown experimentally that introducing a vacuum gap between the insulator–anode interface and recessing the ATJ farther away from the cathode triple junction significantly enhances high voltage (HV) vacuum surface flashover hold-off. The results for “first pulse” and “consecutive pulse” tests are reported. The physical mechanisms contributing to the electrical failure of this feedthrough geometry appear to be unique to this geometry. These findings show the potential to allow for HV vacuum surface flashover geometries with significantly improved electrical characteristics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A convergence metric for counting statistics in time-resolved small angle neutron scattering

Here, this work introduces a model-independent, dimensionless metric for predicting optimal measurement duration in time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering using early-time data. Built on a Gaussian process regression framework, the method reconstructs scattering profiles with quantified uncertainty, even from sparse or noisy measurements. Demonstrated on the EQ-SANS instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source, the approach generalizes to general SANS instruments with a two-dimensional detector. A key result is the discovery of a dimensionless convergence metric revealing a universal power-law scaling in profile evolution across soft matter systems. When time is normalized by a system-specific characteristic time t*, the variation in inferred profiles collapses onto a single curve with an exponent between −2 and −1. This trend emerges within the first ten time steps, enabling early prediction of measurement sufficiency. The method supports real-time experimental optimization and is especially valuable for maximizing efficiency in low-flux environments such as compact accelerator-based neutron sources.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Circuit complexity and functionality: A statistical thermodynamics perspective

Circuit complexity, defined as the minimum circuit size required for implementing a particular Boolean computation, is a foundational concept in computer science. Determining circuit complexity is believed to be a hard computational problem. Recently, in the context of black holes, circuit complexity has been promoted to a physical property, wherein the growth of complexity is reflected in the time evolution of the Einstein-Rosen bridge (“wormhole”) connecting the two sides of an anti-de Sitter “eternal” black hole. Here, we are motivated by an independent set of considerations and explore links between complexity and thermodynamics for functionally equivalent circuits, making the physics-inspired approach relevant to real computational problems, for which functionality is the key element of interest. In particular, our thermodynamic framework provides an alternative perspective on the obfuscation of programs of arbitrary length—an important problem in cryptography—as thermalization through recursive mixing of neighboring sections of a circuit, which can be viewed as the mixing of two containers with “gases of gates.” This recursive process equilibrates the average complexity and leads to the saturation of the circuit entropy, while preserving functionality of the overall circuit. The thermodynamic arguments hinge on ergodicity in the space of circuits which we conjecture is limited to disconnected ergodic sectors due to fragmentation. The notion of fragmentation has important implications for the problem of circuit obfuscation as it implies that there are circuits of same size and functionality that cannot be connected via a polynomial number of local moves. Furthermore, we argue that fragmentation is unavoidable unless the complexity classes NP and coNP coincide, a statement that implies the collapse of the polynomial hierarchy of computational complexity theory to its first level.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical inference of anomalous thermal transport with uncertainty quantification for interpretive 2D SOL models

The critical task of inferring anomalous cross-field transport coefficients is addressed in simulations of boundary plasmas with fluid models. A workflow for parameter inference in the UEDGE fluid code is developed using Bayesian optimization with parallelized sampling and integrated uncertainty quantification. In this workflow, transport coefficients are inferred by maximizing their posterior probability distribution, which is generally multidimensional and non-Gaussian. Uncertainty quantification is integrated throughout the optimization within the Bayesian framework that combines diagnostic uncertainties and model limitations. As a concrete example, we infer the anomalous electron thermal diffusivity $\chi_\perp$ from an interpretive 2D model describing electron heat transport in the conduction-limited region with radiative power loss. The workflow is first benchmarked against synthetic data and then tested on H-, L-, and I-mode discharges to match their midplane temperature and divertor heat flux profiles. We demonstrate that the workflow efficiently infers diffusivity and its associated uncertainty, generating 2D profiles that match 1D measurements. Future efforts will focus on incorporating more complicated fluid models and analyzing transport coefficients inferred from a large database of experimental results.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2026

SALSAA: a statistical approach to line shapes from an average atom

Ion-Stark line broadening is a key density diagnostic for hot dense plasmas relevant to inertial fusion and astrophysics. It is caused by interactions of a radiating ion with nearby perturbing ions, whose electric microfields lead to changes in bound-bound transition energies. Ion-Stark broadening becomes increasingly difficult to compute for complex, many-electron ions with myriad transitions. In this paper, we propose a simplified approach to ion-Stark broadening based on self-consistent ion distributions and electronic structure from an average-atom model. We find that this approach reproduces the line shape predictions of one traditional method for high-n K-shell emission lines in aluminum ions with accuracy sufficient for density diagnostics in thermal plasmas with equal ion and electron temperatures. We expect that this approach can be extended to provide a reasonable picture of ion-Stark broadening in many-electron ions, enabling rapid calculations of line profiles in complex spectra.

average-atom↗
DOE OSTI2026

An analytic approximation to the covariance between pre- and post-reconstruction galaxy two-point statistics

We present a simple analytic approximation for the covariance between pre-reconstruction galaxy power spectrum measurements and post-reconstruction two-point correlation functions. This cross-covariance is essential for joint analyses that combine full-shape clustering information with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, as commonly performed in modern spectroscopic surveys. Our model builds on the disconnected contribution to the covariance and accounts for the damping of correlations due to the BAO reconstruction process. We validate our analytic prescription against numerical simulations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), testing both idealized cubic geometries and realistic survey configurations including complex footprints and fiber assignment effects. Despite neglecting survey window functions in the analytic calculation, we find excellent agreement with simulation-based covariances and demonstrate that cosmological parameter constraints are virtually unchanged when using our approximation. Our results show that the pre-post cross-covariance is sufficiently small that even approximate treatments are adequate for cosmological inference, opening a pathway toward fully analytic covariance matrices for next-generation galaxy surveys.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗