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NASA NTRS2004

Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential. We have analyzed the oxygen isotopic composition of ostrcoda shells formed in the floodwaters of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) and discovered the negative isotopic 1 16 spike. Because we had learned that storm activity has a major impact on the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the tropics and sub-tropics we decided to analyze the isotopic compositions of water vapor in different locations in the tropics. We did this in Puerto Escondido, Mexico in July 1998, near Kwajalein Island in the Pacific in 1999 as part of a TRMM summer field program and in 2001 in Key West, Florida as part of the CAMEX 4 summer field program. Our isotopic studies along with our earlier tropical cyclone studies showed that the low isotopic ratios in water vapor induced by exposure to rains the storms persisted for 48 hours often far away from the original storm site. We also noted that positive isotopic spikes were introduced into atmospheric water vapor if winds were high and extensive sea spray was present. These findings have a significant impact on the interpretation of the stable isotope studies of tropical ice cores found in the high mountain regions of the tropics. The assumption made in interpreting the ice core record is that the source water vapor evaporated from the sea surface is in near isotopic equilibrium with the seawater and undergoes a decrease during its transport that reflects the change in temperature from the sea surface to the site of the ice core. Because an additional isotopic depletion occurs at the sea surface source area that depends on the intensity, duration and size of the tropical rain system the isotopic variations found in the ice cores must take into account changes in past storm activity in the tropics. These systems must be an important source of water vapor to the ice cores because they charge the troposphere with water vapor to a far greater vertical height than evaporation in quiescent regions. Finally, an interest in increased heat transfer in thnterior of tropical cyclones resulting from greater amounts of sea spray is a topic of considerable interest to the research community. Increases in sea spray may be related to rapid changes in the intensity of hurricanes, a feature of hurricanes that currently is very poorly forecast. Project CBLAST of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is an active program that uses P3 research aircraft to evaluate this problem. An instrument has been designed and built at the University of Houston that will be placed on the P3 research aircraft during the 2004 hurricane season. It continuously measures the salt content of rain in hurricanes. Changes in the salt content of the rains should reflect the abundance of sea spray at the sea surface. In this way maps of sea spray intensity in hurricanes may be forthcoming. This should help computer modelers who simulate hurricanes to better understand the potential of changes in sea spray to change the intensity of hurricanes. The cost of designing, building and installing this instrument was borne largely by funding from this NASA grant. A list of presentations at national meetings and publications that were as the result of funding from this NASA grant are found in the report.

Lawrence, James R.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Water Heavily Fractionated as it Ascends on Mars as Revealed by ExoMars/NOMAD

Isotopic ratios, and in particular the water D/Hratio, are powerful tracers of the evolutionand transportof water on Mars. From measurements performed with ExoMars/NOMAD, we observe dramatic and rapid variability of the D/H along altitude on Mars and across the whole planet. The observations (from April 2018 to April 2019) sample a broad range of events on Mars, including aglobal dust storm, the evolution ofwater released from the southern polar cap during southern summer, the equinox phases, and a short but intense regional dust storm. In three instances, we observe water at very high altitudes (>80 km), the prime region where water is photo-dissociated andstarts its escape to space.Rayleigh distillation appears the be the driving force affecting the D/H in many cases, yet in someinstances,the exchange of water reservoirs with distinctive D/H could be responsible.

Geronimo L Villanueva↗

NASA NTRS1997

Storm-Associated Microwave Radiometric Signatures in the Frequency Range of 90-220 GHz

Radiometric measurements were made by a millimeter-wave imaging radiometer (MIR) at the frequencies of 89, 150, 183.3 +/- 1, 183.3 +/- 3, 183.3 +/- 7, and 220 GHz aboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft at an altitude of about 20 km over two rainstorms: one in the western Pacific Ocean on 19 January 1993 and another in southern Florida on 5 October 1993. These measurements were complemented by nearly simultaneous observations by other sensors aboard the same aircraft and another aircraft flying along the same path. Analysis of data from these measurements, aided by radiative transfer and radar reflectivity calculations of hydrometeor profiles, which arc generated by a general cloud ensemble model, demonstrates the utility of these frequencies for studying the structure of frozen hydrometeors associated with storms. Particular emphasis is placed on the three water vapor channels near 183.3 GHz. Results show that the radiometric signatures measured by these channels over the storm-associated scattering media bear a certain resemblance to those previously observed over a clear and fairly dry atmosphere with a cold ocean background. Both of these atmospheric conditions are characterized by a small amount of water vapor above a cold background. Radiative transfer calculations were made at these water vapor channels for a number of relative humidity profiles characterizing dry atmospheres over an ocean surface. The results are compared with the measurements to infer some characteristics of the environment near the scattering media. Furthermore, radiometric signatures from these channels display unique features for towering deep convective cells that could be used to identify the presence of such cells in storms.

Wang, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The Mars water cycle

A model has been developed to test the hypothesis that the observed seasonal and latitudinal distribution of water on Mars is controlled by the sublimation and condensation of surface ice deposits in the Arctic and Antarctic, and the meridional transport of water vapor. Besides reproducing the observed water vapor distribution, the model correctly reproduces the presence of a large permanent ice cap in the Arctic and not in the Antarctic. No permanent ice reservoirs are predicted in the temperate or equatorial zones. Wintertime ice deposits in the Arctic are shown to be the source of the large water vapor abundances observed in the Arctic summertime, and the moderate water vapor abundances in the northern temperate region. Model calculations suggest that a year without dust storms results in very little change in the water vapor distribution. The current water distribution appears to be the equilibrium distribution for present atmospheric conditions.

Davies, D. W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

TEMPEST3 surface runoff water chemistry and organic matter composition

Coastal flooding, driven by storm surges and sea level rise, can mobilize organic matter (OM) via runoff, while introducing compositionally distinct OM (e.g., estuarine OM) into the system. To understand event-scale OM dynamics, we monitored source waters and surface runoff during an ecosystem-scale field manipulation experiment, TEMPEST (Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments), in June 2024. The TEMPEST experiment is part of the COMPASS-FME (Coastal Observations, Mechanisms, and Predictions Across Systems and Scales – Field, Measurements, and Experiments) project and designed to investigate biogeochemical and ecological impacts of freshwater and seawater flooding on coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface ecosystems by simulating freshwater and seawater storm events in two 2000m2 coastal upland forest plots (freshwater and brackish seawater plots). The temporal coverage of this dataset is during the TEMPESTⅢ event (June 11-13, 2024). This dataset contains: - Surface runoff discharge measured by flumes - Sensor data (specific conductivity, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and temperature) - Particle size distribution - Total suspended sediment concentrations (TSS), particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC, DOC) concentrations, total nitrogen and total dissolved nitrogen (TN, TDN) concentrations - Bulk particulate and dissolved OM compositions (stable C and N isotopes of particulates and optical measurements of chromophoric dissolved OM) - High resolution mass spectrometry analysis data - Water isotope data All data files are plain-text CSV (comma-separated value), and no special software is required to read them.

COMPASS-FME↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar power satellite offshore rectenna study

Offshore rectennas are feasible and cost competitive with land rectennas but the type of rectenna suitable for offshore use is quite different from that specified in the present reference system. A nonground plane design minimizes the weight and greatly reduces the number of costly support towers. This perferred design is an antenna array consisting of individually encapsulated dipoles with reflectors or tagis supported on feed wires. Such a 5 GW rectenna could be built at a 50 m water depth site to withstand hurricane, winter storm, and icing conditions for a one time cost of $5.7 billion. Subsequent units would be about 1.3 less expensive. More benign and more shallow water sites would result in substantially lower costs. The major advantage of an offshore rectenna is the removal of microwave radiation from populated areas.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2010

Cassini/CIRS Observations of Saturn's "Storm Alley"

In the Voyager era storms on Saturn were observed predominantly in the northern hemisphere, however, in recent years storm activity has been confined to a narrow range of latitudes referred to as "storm alley" (approx.40degS planetographic latitude). Throughout Cassini's prime mission storms have been detected by two independent instruments: ISS through dayside images and RPWS using radio emissions from Saturn Electrostatic Discharges (SED's) (Dyudina et al. 2007). Analysis of these storms indicates that the cloud tops are in the 200 - 500rnbar altitude range. During Saturn's Equinox, in August 2009, lSS imaged lightning on the night side in storm alley when ring-shine was at a minimum (Dyudina et al. 2010). This study indicates that lightning may have originated as deep as the water cloud. Decently, Cassini/CIRS was targeted at storm alley while a storm, originally detected by amateurs, was ongoing (March 2010). Phosphine can be used as a tracer of vertical transport because it is a disequilibrium species that falls off with altitude in the upper troposphere. CIRS can measure temperature and phosphine abundance independently in the altitude range where these cloud tops occur. Early analysis of these data shows stronger phosphine absorption at storm longitudes. This is an indication that powerful updrafts were dredging material upward into the upper troposphere. The results of the analysis of the March 2010 CIRS observations of storm alley will be presented.

Hesman, Brigette E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The effect of severe storms on the ice cover of the northern Tatarskiy Strait

Passive microwave images from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager are used to study the volume of ice and sea-bottom water in the Japan Sea as affected by winds and severe storms. The data set comprises brightness temperatures gridded on a polar stereographic projection, and the processing is accomplished with a linear algorithm by Cavalieri et al. (1983) based on the vertically polarized 37-GHz channel. The expressions for calculating heat fluxes and downwelling radiation are given, and ice-cover fluctuations are correlated with severe storm events. The storms generate large transient polynya that occur simultaneously with the strongest heat fluxes, and severe storms are found to contribute about 25 percent of the annual introduction of 25 cu km of ice in the region. The ice production could lead to the renewal of enough sea-bottom water to account for the C-14 data provided, and the generation of Japan Sea bottom water is found to vary directly with storm activity.

Martin, Seelye↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

Application of Nimbus-6 microwave data to problems in precipitation prediction for the Pacific west coast

The preliminary results of a research study that emphasizes the analysis and interpretation of data related to total precipitable water and nonprecipitating cloud liquid water obtained from NIMBUS-6 SCAMS are reported. Sixteen cyclonic storm situations in the northeastern Pacific Ocean that resulted in significant rainfall along the west coast of the United States during the winter season October 1975 through February 1976 are analyzed in terms of their distributions and amounts of total water vapor and liquid water, as obtained from SCAMS data. The water-substance analyses for each storm case are related to the distribution and amount of coastal precipitation observed during the subsequent time period when the storm system crosses the coastline. Concomitant precipitation predictions from the LFM are also incorporated. Techniques by which satellite microwave data over the ocean can be used to improve precipitation prediction for the Pacific West Coast are emphasized.

Viezee, W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Air Data Probe Anomalies in Flight through Measured High Ice Water Content Conditions

High concentrations of ice crystals in convective storms have caused anomalous air temperature and airspeed readings during commercial and research flight operations. These anomalies occur when ice crystals are ingested in the heated probe inlet, melt or partially melt to liquid water, and then refreeze or remain in a liquid state depending on the probe heat and cloud conditions. In pitot probes, the refreezing may cause complete blockage of the total pressure, which causes airspeed anomalies. In total air temperature probes, the melted ice water may flow near the temperature sensing element and cause the total air temperature reading to approach 0 degree Celsius. During the High Ice Water Content (HIWC) RADAR and HIWC-2022 flight campaigns and the Convective Process Experiment (CPEX-CV) flight campaign, a total of 71 anomalies were recorded on the NASA DC-8 pitot probes when subjected to specific flight and cloud conditions. Similarly, a research TAT probe mounted near the pitot probes had 19 anomalies. This paper presents analyses of the measured natural conditions that led to these TAT and pitot anomalies, identifies two types of pitot probe anomalies, applies a concentration factor to estimate local TWC conditions near the TAT and pitot probes, and identifies the static air temperature and pressure altitude where the anomalies occurred on the Part 33 Appendix D envelope.

Aircraft Icing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Air Data Probe Anomalies in Flight through Measured High Ice Water Content Conditions

Aircraft Icing↗

NASA NTRS1982

The clouds of Mars as seen by Viking

UV and IR observations of Martian cloud activity by Viking orbiters are reviewed. Localized spiral storms were detected at high northern latitudes during the summer, and both dust and water ice have been associated with the occurrences. Local dust storms formed in spring and summer in the southern hemisphere, and storms along the polar cap edge moved away from the ice covered area on thermally driven downslope winds originating from local variations in thermal inertia. Global dust storms happen nominally during the perihelion of the Martian orbit, although deviations from the pattern have been observed. Condensate clouds were most noticeable around the north polar hood and the Tharsis-Valles Marineris region, with most activity in the spring and summer. Wind speeds were 40 and 85 m/sec in the lower and upper layers of the atmosphere, respectively, with waves having wavelengths from 2-60 km and extending over hundreds of km.

James, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Multiannual simulations with the Mars climate model

The martian atmospheric circulaton for 10 Mars years was simulated using a simplified three-dimensional climate model that is briefly described below. Analysis of these simulations reveals several interesting behaviors not previously recognized in other three-dimensional models. The first concerns the potential for interannual variability in the martian climate system. It is now known from the aperiodic frequency of planet-encircling storms, as well as differences in atmospheric water vapor from one year to the next, that the real planet exhibits interannual variations. The results of our simulations also show significant interannual variability and, interestingly, that variability maximizes during southern spring, the dust storm season. A second and related finding is that transient eddies in the southern hemisphere during winter are indeed weaker than their northern hemisphere counterparts as was found in more sophisticated models. However, southern hemisphere eddy activity rises dramatically during spring and is greater than that in the northern hemisphere at any season.

Haberle, R. M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Leaf Wax Hydrogen Isotopes Reflect Storm Track Position Over Western North America

Proxy records of past climates have yielded powerful insights into regional hydroclimate dynamics. Novel insights may be gained by reconstructing spatiotemporal changes in precipitation isotopologues in past climate states that cannot be gleaned from individual site‐level studies. In this paper, we ask whether latitudinal gradients in the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation, as inferred from sedimentary leaf wax biomarkers, reflect aspects of large‐scale climate conditions in western North America (WNA). Modern coretop samples from offshore WNA show that leaf wax hydrogen isotopes broadly track the hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall between 20 and 40N, but with an offset corresponding to a relatively constant “apparent fractionation” value. Poleward of 40N, the leaf wax signal may be complicated by fluvial transport of leaf waxes from the continental interior. Leaf wax‐inferred precipitation hydrogen isotopes show a shift to more negative values between 30 and 40N. We use modern observational data to show that this latitudinal range marks a major transition between the subtropical arid zone and the location of the midlatitude storm tracks over the northeast Pacific. Nudged water isotope‐enabled models capture the location of the arid to mesic climate transition with fidelity. This modern data set suggests that reconstructions of the latitudinal gradient of precipitation hydrogen isotopes can constrain the sensitivity of the storm tracks to shifts in climatic boundary conditions in past climate states. This approach can yield novel insights into past, present, and future hydroclimate variability in this arid region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

On the relationship between scatterometer-derived convergences and atmospheric moisture

Fields of divergence calculated from the Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer winds and fields of integrated water vapor and rainrate from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer on Seasat are constructed for three different midlatitude cyclones. These storms include an explosively deepening cyclone that occurred in the North Atlantic (also known as the Queen Elizabeth II cyclone), a storm that occurred in the North Pacific, and a Southern Ocean storm. In all three cases, the regions of convergence and atmospheric water (vapor and rain) are consistent with each other and help to define features of each storm. The vertical distribution of moisture is inferred for one case using both the convergence pattern and the integrated water vapor field. In another, interpretation of the convergence field in a data gap region is aided by the water vapor field. In all three cases, surface low pressure centers, fronts, and even frontal waves are clearly evident as areas of convergence, and increased water vapor and rainrate.

Mcmurdie, Lynn A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Joint analysis of multiparameter radar and radiometer measurements of convective storms

An account is given of the radiative properties of hydrometeors in order to evaluate the influences of water, ice, and melting layers on the upwelling microwave radiances of convective storms. Attention is given to storm overflights conducted by the ER-2 aircraft in coordination with the NCAR dual-polarization/dual-wavelength mode radar. Radar-radiometer comparisons are conducted for one overflight from each day of the study campaign, using the various multiparameter radar observations to delineate regions of water, ice, and melting, as well as to obtain raindrop-size distribution. Model-computed brightness temperatures are compared with the ER-2 aircraft measurements.

Vivekanandan, J.↗