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At least 181 records · Page 10

A Practical Comparison of Data-Driven Prognostics Methods for Energy Systems

This study explores data-driven prognostics for nuclear power plant (NPP) condensers, focusing on tube fouling. We utilized the Asherah nuclear power plant simulator (ANS) to compare four methods: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). By simulating various fouling scenarios in the ANS, we generated data with different degradation rates under transient operations. The models were trained and tested on these data, with performance evaluated visually and numerically including uncertainty assessment. The LSTM model excelled, exhibiting minimal prediction noise and the most accurate remaining useful life estimates across all degradation levels. Its ability to capture long-term dependencies and produce cleaner outputs makes it a strong candidate, although accurate training data across the entire component lifespan are crucial. The RF model emerged as a robust alternative, providing reliable predictions with high confidence. The FCNN and SVR models, while less effective overall, showed potential under specific conditions. FCNN offers a less complex alternative to LSTM and might benefit from larger datasets. SVR excels in precision when the quality of the training data is high. Furthermore, this study highlights the operational benefits of advanced prognostics in the energy sector and emphasizes the need for further research in NPP condenser health management through real-life experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS

Inferring Neutron Star Merger Ejecta Morphology with Kilonovae

In this study we incorporate a new grid of kilonova simulations produced by the Monte Carlo radiative transfer code SuperNu in an inference pipeline for astrophysical transients and evaluate their performance. These simulations contain four different two-component ejecta morphology classes. We analyze follow-up observational strategies by Vera Rubin Observatory in optical and James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in mid-infrared (MIR). Our analysis suggests that, within these strategies, it is possible to discriminate between the four different morphologies only when late-time JWST observations in MIR are available. We conclude that follow-ups by the new Vera Rubin Observatory alone are not sufficient to determine ejecta morphology. Additionally, we make comparisons between surrogate models based on radiative transfer simulation grids by SuperNu and POSSIS, by analyzing the historic kilonova AT2017gfo that accompanied the gravitational wave event GW170817. We show that both SuperNu and POSSIS models provide similar fits to photometric observations but their qualitative interpretations differ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Optimal transport for 𝑒/𝜋 0 particle classification in LArTPC neutrino experiments

The efficient classification of electromagnetic activity from 𝜋 0 and electrons remains an open problem in the reconstruction of neutrino interactions in liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors. We address this problem using the mathematical framework of optimal transport (OT), which has been successfully employed for event classification in other high energy physics contexts and is ideally suited to the high-resolution calorimetry of LArTPCs. Using a publicly available simulated dataset from the MicroBooNE Collaboration, we show that OT methods achieve state-of-the-art reconstruction performance in 𝑒/𝜋 0 classification. The success of this first application indicates the broader promise of OT methods for LArTPC-based neutrino experiments.

Neutrino detection

Combining MISR and MODIS data to automatically catalogue smoke plumes in North America

We are in the early stages of work on EPA task to investigate the effects of fires on air quality in North America, led by Jennifer Logan of Harvard University. JPL's contribution to this study is to find thousands of smoke plumes in satellite images of North America, and derive statistics about their geographic distribution, extent, orientation, and injection height.

smoke plume

Recent HARVIST Results: Classifying Crops from Remote Sensing Data

In this paper, we report on recent results from the Heterogeneous Agricultural Research Via Interactive, Scalable Technology (HARVIST) project. HARVIST seeks to provide the tools and scalability required to enable practicioners to analyze large, diverse data sets that may come from different data sources. We have focused on agricultural applications, and our current results demonstrate the ability of the system to train a crop type classifier that operates on orbital remote sensing images. We find that this classifier can label crops with an accuracy of 82%, comparable to other published results.

support vector machines

Automated Knowledge Discovery from Simulators

In this paper, we explore one aspect of knowledge discovery from simulators, the landscape characterization problem, where the aim is to identify regions in the input/ parameter/model space that lead to a particular output behavior. Large-scale numerical simulators are in widespread use by scientists and engineers across a range of government agencies, academia, and industry; in many cases, simulators provide the only means to examine processes that are infeasible or impossible to study otherwise. However, the cost of simulation studies can be quite high, both in terms of the time and computational resources required to conduct the trials and the manpower needed to sift through the resulting output. Thus, there is strong motivation to develop automated methods that enable more efficient knowledge extraction.

landscapes

A Parametric Testing Environment for Finding the Operational Envelopes of Simulated Guidance Algorithms

The ever-increasing size and complexity of aerospace systems often drive developers to validate using modeling and Monte Carlo simulations confined around expected points of operation in a hyper-dimensional parameter space. This paper describes an alternative that explores large regions of the parameter space with explicit coverage guarantees, searching for n parameter relations that characterize a system's performance envelope.

Parametric testing

A Parametric Testing Environment for Finding the Operational Envelopes of Simulated Guidance Algorithms

The Problem: As NASA missions become ever more complex and subsystems become ever more complicated, testing for correctness becomes progressively more difficult. Exhaustive testing is usually impractical, so how does one select a smaller set of test cases that is effective at finding/analyzing bugs? Solution:(1) Let an analyst pose test-space coverage requirements and then refine these requirements to focus on regions of interest in response to visualized test results. (2) Instead of validating correctness around set points (with Monte Carlo analysis) find and characterize the margins of the performance envelop where the system starts to fail.

treatment learning

New Data-Driven Estimation of Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes in Asia Using a Standardized Database of Eddy Covariance Measurements, Remote Sensing Data, and Support Vector Regression

The lack of a standardized database of eddy covariance observations has been an obstacle for data-driven estimation of terrestrial carbon dioxide fluxes in Asia. In this study, we developed such a standardized database using 54 sites from various databases by applying consistent postprocessing for data-driven estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE). Data-driven estimation was conducted by using a machine learning algorithm: support vector regression (SVR), with remote sensing data for 2000 to 2015 period. Site-level evaluation of the estimated carbon dioxide fluxes shows that although performance varies in different vegetation and climate classifications, GPP and NEE at 8 days are reproduced (e.g., r (exp 2) =0.73 and 0.42 for 8 day GPP and NEE). Evaluation of spatially estimated GPP with Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 sensor-based Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence shows that monthly GPP variations at subcontinental scale were reproduced by SVR (r (exp 2)=1.00, 0.94, 0.91, and 0.89 for Siberia, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively). Evaluation of spatially estimated NEE with net atmosphere-land carbon dioxide fluxes of Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Level 4A product shows that monthly variations of these data were consistent in Siberia and East Asia; meanwhile, inconsistency was found in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, differences in the land carbon dioxide fluxes from SVR-NEE and GOSAT Level 4A were partially explained by accounting for the differences in the definition of land carbon dioxide fluxes. These data-driven estimates can provide a new opportunity to assess carbon dioxide fluxes in Asia and evaluate and constrain terrestrial ecosystem models.

chlorophyll fluorescence

Decoding substrate specificity determining factors in glycosyltransferase-B enzymes – insights from machine learning models

Substrate specificity is an essential characteristic of any enzyme's function and an understanding of the factors that determine this specificity is crucial for enzyme engineering. Unlike the structure of an enzyme which is directly impacted by its sequence, substrate specificity as an enzyme attribute involves a rather indirect relationship with sequence as it also depends on structural aspects that dictate substrate accessibility and active site dynamics. In this study, we explore the performance of classifier-based machine learning models trained on curated sequence and structural data for a class of glycosyltransferases (GTs), namely GT-Bs, to understand their substrate specificity determining factors. GTs enable the transfer of sugar moieties to other biomolecules such as oligosaccharides or proteins and are found in all kingdoms of life. In plants, GTs participate in the biosynthesis of plant cell wall biopolymers (e.g.: hemicelluloses and pectins) and are an integral part of the enzymatic machinery that enables the storage of carbon and energy as plant biomass. To elucidate the substrate specificity of uncharacterized GT-Bs, we constructed multi-label machine learning models (Support Vector Classifier, K-Nearest Neighbors, Gaussian Naïve-Bayes, Random Forest) that incorporate both sequence and structural features. These models achieve good predictive accuracies on test datasets. However, despite our use of structural information, we highlight that there is further scope for improvement in training these models to draw interpretable relationships between sequence, structure and substrate specificity determining motifs in GT-Bs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

A Machine Learning based Approach of Estimating Equivalent Circuit Model Parameters at Different SoCs of Li-ion Batteries from Voltage Relaxation

Abstract: In this study, an approach of estimating the equivalent circuit model (ECM) parameters for Li-ion batteries (LIBs) is proposed based on the voltage value at different intervals while relaxing the LIB after discharge. The typical approach for estimating ECM parameters of a LIB is to conduct electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements at different frequencies and fit them to a predefined circuit model, which requires additional measuring arrangements and specialized devices. The proposed methodology utilizes four different voltages at 0s, 60s, 360s, and 1800s alongside the specific state of charge (SoC) value for a specific constant discharge current value of ~1C until the relaxation stage to train and evaluate three regression-based machine learning models— Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—for estimating the ECM parameters of the selected model. Bayesian optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance for all the regressor models, among which, the GPR provided the best performance with the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of less than 4x10-4 on average for the resistive components and less than 0.27 for capacitive components with excellent R2 scores. The simplicity of the approach enables it to eliminate the need for sophisticated measuring equipment and computation power.

Sagar, Md. Samiul [The University of Alabama (UA)]

Application of Support Vector Regression to Derive Crater Depth/Diameter From Satellite Images

Through the study of impact crater shapes, one can draw important conclusions about the nature and evolution of planetary surfaces [e.g., 1-4].In particular, studying the depth (d) to diameter (D)ratio (d/D) of a population of impact craters, in combination with crater count statistics, can yield valuable insights regarding rates of erosion and burial[5]. Motivated by the great abundance of available planetary surface image data, the goal of this project is to develop an efficient way to estimate d/D from satellite images of impact craters for which stereo information is not available [6]. We set out to develop and train a machine learning algorithm to extract d/D from a dataset of synthetic impact crater images for which model d/D is known. The applications of machine learning to planetary science are numerous and diverse [7], including automatic planetary surface mapping [8] and the detection of impact craters [9]. Our algorithm makes use of Support Vector Regression (SVR), which is a type of Support Vector Machine (SVM) [10, 11].SVMs are a branch of supervised machine learning valued for their straightforward implementation and versatility in solving both classification and regression problems. In regression analysis, an SVR algorithm produces a hyperplane function to fit the training data points, as well as an ε-tube that surrounds the hyperplane. Tunable hyperparameters include the width of the ε-tube (ε) and the amount an algorithm is penalized for points which fall outside the ε-tube.

L R Chin

Using Machine-Learning Methods and Expert Prediction Probabilities to Forecast Solar Flares

It has long been known that studying connection between solar flares and properties of magnetic field in active regions is very important for understanding the flare physics and developing space weather forecasts. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) obtains tremendous amounts of magnetic field data products. However the operational NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts of solar flares still represent prediction probabilities issued by the experts. In this research we investigate the possibilities to enhance the daily operational flare forecasts performed at the SWPC by developing a synergy of the expert predictions and physics-based criteria, and by employing machine-learning methods. Among the physics-based criteria we consider the descriptors of the Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) and Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and derive from them daily characteristics of the entire Sun. We also consider the daily descriptors of the GOES Soft X-Ray (SXR) 1-8 Angstroms flux such as the flare history of the previous days and averaged X-Ray flux. We estimate the effectiveness in separation of flaring and non-flaring cases for each characteristic, as well as for the expert prediction probabilities, and find that some PIL, SHARP and SXR descriptors are as effective as the expert prediction probabilities and should be considered to issue the flare forecast. Finally, we train and test several Machine-Learning classification algorithms (Support Vector Classifiers with various kernel functions, k-Nearest Neighbor Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, and Neural Networks) using the most effective descriptors and expert prediction probabilities, and compare the obtained predictions with the current SWPC forecasts.

Machine-Learning

Applying Machine‐Learning Methods to Laser Acceleration of Protons: Lessons Learned From Synthetic Data

ABSTRACT In this study, we consider three different machine‐learning methods—a three‐hidden‐layer neural network, support vector regression, and Gaussian process regression—and compare how well they can learn from a synthetic data set for proton acceleration in the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration regime. The synthetic data set was generated from a previously published theoretical model by Fuchs et al. 2005 that we modified. Once trained, these machine‐learning methods can assist with efforts to maximize the peak proton energy, or with the more general problem of configuring the laser system to produce a proton energy spectrum with desired characteristics. In our study, we focus on both the accuracy of the machine‐learning methods and the performance on one GPU including memory consumption. Although it is arguably the least sophisticated machine‐learning model we considered, support vector regression performed very well in our tests.

Desai, Ronak

A Knowledge Graph Framework for Organizing Heterogeneous Datasets for Utilization in Classical and Quantum Computing: Current Challenges and Future Directions

"The escalating impact of climate change induced extreme weather events in urban, suburban, and rural environments demands a rethink of how we have been using the single event-based or use-case-based knowledge graph models. The lack of representation in interaction within environmental variables found in literature led to the development of a novel framework that reflects the true nature of the interconnectedness in our environment. We propose an Environmental Interaction Knowledge Graph (EIKG) framework. This general EIKG framework works as the basis for interconnected environmental events by knitting interrelated events such as hurricanes leading to storm surges, which lead to flood events that could cause mudslides, landslides, etc., The cascading nature of one event leading to another related event in the environment requires an adequate understanding of each event using contextual information before conducting any data-driven analytics. This vision paper showcases how the EIKG:floods, EIKG:wildfire EIKG:landslides, etc, can be derived from a base case framework of EIKG as those individual events are interconnected with some common denominator variables. As an example, the precipitation variable is used in the flood case study as well as in the wildfire case study, as excessive precipitation levels lead to floods, and lack of precipitation leads to droughts and wildfires. We identify the precipitation variable as a “common-denominator-variable” in extreme weather events that play a key role in modeling the environment leading to different extreme weather events based on the variability of that variable (varying values where low precipitation leads to drought, and high values lead to floods). We use the insights gained from EIKG to conduct classical and Quantum Machine Learning (QML) based data analysis on the research questions developed. Our preliminary study shows how the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) and Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) are used along with the classical machine learning models to compare the model accuracies. Our study elaborates on how a quantitative analysis uses state-of-the-art machine learning techniques that include implementing both classical and quantum machine learning models and developing the knowledge graph. The EIKG is used to organize heterogeneous datasets and integrate the relations to case-specific extreme weather events such as floods. The study uses datasets such as county-to-country residential mobility data, socioeconomic datasets from the US Census Bureau, climate and weather-related Earth Observational data from NASA, and critical infrastructure data from the Homeland Infrastructure datasets."

Knowledge Graphs, Quantum Computing, Heterogenous

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS