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DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Interbasin Interaction as Effective Predictors of Late-Spring Precipitation Variability in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The southern Great Plains experience fluctuating precipitation extremes that significantly impact agriculture and water management. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance forecast accuracy, the underlying causes of these climatic phenomena remain inadequately understood. This study elucidates the relative influence of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins on April–May–June precipitation variability in this region. Our partial ocean assimilation experiments using the Community Earth System Model unveil the prominent role of interbasin interaction, with the Pacific and Atlantic contributing approximately 70% and 30%, respectively, to these interbasin contrasts. Our statistical analyses suggest that these tropical interbasin contrasts could serve as a more reliable indicator for late-spring precipitation anomalies than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The conclusions are reinforced by analyses of seven climate forecasting systems within the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, offering an optimistic outlook for enhancing real-time forecasting of late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. However, the current predictive skills of the interbasin contrasts across the prediction systems are hindered by the lower predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, pointing to the need for future research to refine climate prediction models further. Significance Statement Agriculture and infrastructure in the southern plains face challenges from severe late-spring precipitation extremes. Traditional predictors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lose effectiveness during the critical spring-to-summer transition, creating a forecasting gap. This study introduces the concept of tropical interbasin interactions, known to enhance seasonal predictability for late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. Novel climate model experiments highlight contributions from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, offering a promising predictability that potentially surpasses the limitations of ENSO-based predictions. These outcomes hold the potential for developing operational forecasts of late-spring precipitation anomalies in the southern plains, enabling proactive risk management.

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surface heat flux and its association with the MJO in the tropical western Pacific using ARM observations

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major atmospheric phenomenon in the tropics that moves eastward every 20 to 100 days. It brings heavy rain and strong winds, influencing extreme weather events far beyond the tropics – including flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy snow in the United States. Therefore, an improved understanding of the MJO is critical for enhancing weather forecasts and supporting better decision-making for communities, emergency managers, and the private sector. Past studies, based on short-term observations or long-term model data, have emphasized the dominant role of atmospheric humidity in driving the MJO. Our research, using long-term observations (2000-2014) from three U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the tropical western Pacific (Manus, Nauru, and Darwin) confirms those past findings. However, we also show that atmospheric temperature, especially in the mid and upper troposphere, also plays a key role in the MJO’s evolution from its quiet (suppressed) to convective (active) phase. These findings provide valuable insights into how the MJO evolves and may help evaluate and improve weather and climate models. Our study also examined how the exchange of heat between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, called surface heat flux, interacts with the MJO. This flux includes components such as latent heat (related to evaporation), sensible heat (related to temperature difference between surface and atmosphere), and radiation. We found that modulation in MJO convection is well connected to surface heat flux over the tropical western Pacific. One surface heat flux component often overlooked is the sensible heat flux due to precipitation (Q P ). Since falling raindrops are typically cooler than the land or ocean surface, they can cool the surface and affect local weather. To test the impact of Q P on convection during MJO, we incorporated it into a weather model, and ran simulations for two periods: April 2009 (when the MJO was active) and June 2006 (when it was not). Including Q P reduced errors in simulating the daily peak of rainfall—by 83% during the strong MJO and 23% during the inactive phase. It also improved the timing of peak daily rainfall and reduced the overall precipitation error by about 10%. These improvements were especially noticeable during periods of heavy rainfall. Our results suggest that even small heat exchanges from rainfall can play a significant role in shaping local weather. Accounting for these effects, particularly in regions like the tropical islands, can lead to more accurate simulations of the MJO-associated precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)

Abstract. Large-scale interaction between the three tropical ocean basins is an area of intense research that is often conducted through experimentation with numerical models. A common problem is that modeling groups use different experimental setups, which makes it difficult to compare results and delineate the role of model biases from differences in experimental setups. To address this issue, an experimental protocol for examining interaction between the tropical basins is introduced. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) consists of experiments in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to follow observed values in selected basins. There are two types of experiments. One type, called standard pacemaker, consists of simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations in selected basins during a historical simulation. The other type, called pacemaker hindcast, consists of seasonal hindcast simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations during 12-month forecast periods. TBIMIP is coordinated by the Climate and Ocean – Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR) Research Focus on Tropical Basin Interaction. The datasets from the model simulations will be made available to the community to facilitate and stimulate research on tropical basin interaction and its role in seasonal-to-decadal variability and climate change.

Richter, Ingo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of tropical orographic precipitation to wind speed with implications for future projections

Abstract. Some of the rainiest regions on Earth lie upstream of tropical mountains, where the interaction of prevailing winds with orography produces frequent precipitating convection. Yet the response of tropical orographic precipitation to the large-scale wind and temperature variations induced by anthropogenic climate change remains largely unconstrained. Here, we quantify the sensitivity of tropical orographic precipitation to background cross-slope wind using theory, idealized simulations, and observations. We build on a recently developed theoretical framework that characterizes the orographic enhancement of seasonal mean precipitation, relative to upstream regions, as a response of convection to cooling and moistening of the lower free troposphere by stationary orographic gravity waves. Using this framework and convection-permitting simulations, we show that higher cross-slope wind speeds deepen the penetration of the cool and moist gravity wave perturbation upstream of orography, resulting in a mean rainfall increase of 20 % (m s−1)−1 to 30 % (m s−1)−1 increase in cross-slope wind speed. Additionally, we show that orographic precipitation in five tropical regions exhibits a similar dependence on changes in cross-slope wind at both seasonal and daily timescales. Given next-century changes in large-scale winds around tropical orography projected by global climate models, this strong scaling rate implies wind-induced changes in some of Earth's rainiest regions that are comparable with any produced directly by increases in global mean temperature and humidity.

Nicolas, Quentin (ORCID:000000024116973X)↗

NASA NTRS1981

Monitoring tropical cyclone intensity using wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

Rapid scan visible images from the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer sensor on board SMS-2 and GOES-1 were used to derive high resolution upper and lower tropospheric environmental wind fields around three western Atlantic tropical cyclones (1975-78). These wind fields were used to derive upper and lower tropospheric areal mean relative vorticity and their differences, the net relative angular momentum balance and upper tropospheric mass outflow. These kinematic parameters were shown by studies using composite rawinsonde data to be strongly related to tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. Also, the role of forced synoptic scale subsidence in tropical cyclone formation was examined. The studies showed that satellite-derived lower and upper tropospheric wind fields can be used to monitor and possibly predict tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. These kinematic analyses showed that future changes in tropical cyclone intensity are mainly related to the "spin-up" of the storms by the net horizontal transport of relative angular momentum caused by convergence of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and to a lesser extent the divergence of anticyclone vorticity in the upper troposphere.

Rodgers, E. B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Low frequency variability and tropical-extratropical interactions

In this investigation of relationships between mid-latitude 500 mb anomalies and tropical heating anomalies on the time scales of weeks to seasons are studied using outgoing IR to characterize the tropical convection heating. The data are first used to form 5-day means and the mean seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of seasonal means are then removed. The time scales considered are then between about 10 days and 90 days. By correlating the mid-latitude height anomalies with the tropical precipitation anomalies it can be shown that, on the time scales considered here, the predominant correlation patterns are those associated with Rossby waves propagating from mid-latitudes into the tropics and influencing the tropical convection. The mid-latitude Rossby waves can significantly influence convection to within 5 degrees of the equator.

Hartmann, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The influence of the tropics upon the prediction of the Southern Hemisphere circulation within the GLAS GCM

An examination is undertaken of the sensitivity of short term Southern Hemisphere circulation prediction to tropical wind data and tropical latent heat release. The data assimilation experiments employ the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences' fourth-order general circulation model. Two of the experiments are identical, but for the fact that one uses tropical wind data while the other does not. A third experiment contains the identical initial conditions of forecasts with tropical winds, while suppressing tropical latent heat release.

Baker, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Heating rates in tropical anvils

The interaction of infrared and solar radiation with tropical cirrus anvils is addressed. Optical properties of the anvils are inferred from satellite observations and from high-altitude aircraft measurements. An infrared multiple-scattering model is used to compute heating rates in tropical anvils. Layer-average heating rates in 2 km thick anvils were found to be on the order of 20 to 30 K/day. The difference between heating rates at cloud bottom and cloud top ranges from 30 to 200 K/day, leading to convective instability in the anvil. The calculations are most sensitive to the assumed ice water content, but also are affected by the vertical distribution of ice water content and by the anvil thickness. Solar heating in anvils is shown to be less important than infrared heating but not negligible. The dynamical implications of the computed heating rates are also explored and it is concluded that the heating may have important consequences for upward mass transport in the tropics. The potential impact of tropical cirrus on the tropical energy balance and cloud forcing are discussed.

Ackerman, Thomas P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Tropopause adjustment to tropical cyclones as inferred from satellite ozone observations

Data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer on the Nimbus-7 are used to map the climatological total ozone within and around tropical cyclones. A tropical cyclone numerical model is used to interpret total ozone patterns. The total ozone maps are used to diagnose storm intensity and to differentiate between intesifying and weakening tropical cyclones. The tropical cyclone intensity versus total ozone anomaly distribution is examined and examples of mapping the total ozone of tropical cyclones in the period 1979-1982 are presented.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Remote sensing of tropical forests - An overview of research and applications using non-photographic sensors

A comprehensive overview is presented on how remote sensing technology has been applied to tropical forest monitoring over the past 20 years. Research needs for monitoring the condition and extent of tropical forests are suggested. The discussion focuses on nonphotographic sensors, especially those on orbiting satellites. Several remote sensing approaches to tropical forest monitoring are outlined, including NOAA AVHRR, Landsat MSS, the Landsat Thematic Mapper, SPOT-1, and Synthetic Aperture Radar. Suggested research needs are addressed, along with discussions on the use of Geographic Information Systems, and multistage and multisensor approaches in data analysis and acquisition. It is concluded that additional research and technique development is urgently needed to advance the utility of remotely sensed data for tropical forest monitoring. However, there is sufficient information available now to prototype a global tropical forest monitoring system that would utilize current satellite sensors complemented with airborne sensors for detailed measurements on sample locations.

Sader, Steven A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The research objectives were to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability, to implement satellite analysis procedures to accomplish that objective, to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis/forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), and to synthesize knowledge gained from satellite observations through diagnosis and numerical models. In the past year, three significant satellite data analysis tasks were accomplished: comparisons for upwelling radiance fields for 1983 and 1984 were completed for the purpose of testing the sensitivity of water vapor/greenhouse feedback to local sea surface temperature variations; the interaction between tropical plumes, wave features over Central America, traveling waves in the upper tropospheric tropics, and the tropical interseasonal oscillation was examined; and planning and early efforts on the construction of a model and the infrared based climatology of daily precipitable water was completed. Research on tropical plume mechanisms included is briefly discussed.

Mcguirk, James P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Tropical intraseasonal oscillation and its prediction by the NMC operational model

Results are presented of an investigation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and its impact on the extended-range forecast in the NMC operational model during Phase II (14 December 1986-31 March 1987) of the Dynamical Extended Range Forecast. Based on principal component analysis of the velocity potential and streamfunction, evidence was found of tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the ISO. The NMC model possess significant forecast skills for the principal streamfunction and velocity potential modes up to the first ten days. Results of the error growth analysis suggest that the principal modes of velocity potential have large errors comparable to the model random errors. By comparison, the initial errors in the streamfunction are much smaller. The error growth for both tropical and extratropical modes are found to be significantly suppressed during periods of strong ISO relative to periods of weak ISO. The increase in extratropical forecast skill is likely due to (1) the model's ability to better capture ISO signals in the tropics and (2) the increased coupling between the tropics and extratropics during periods of strong ISO.

Lau, K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Quasi-biennial oscillation and tropical waves in total ozone

Westward and eastward propagating tropical waves in total ozone are investigated in 13 years (1979-1991) of version 6 total column ozone data from the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) satellite instrument. A clear synchronization between the stratospheric quasi-biennial osciallation (QBO) zonal winds and the fast (periods less than 15 days) propagating waves in tropical TOMS data is detailed. Largest total ozone wave amplitudes (about 3-6 Dobson units) occur when their phase propagation direction is primarily opposite the Singapore QBO lower-stratospheric winds. This effect is most apparent in meridionally symmetric components. Examination of specific episodes, including cross-spectral calculations with Singapore rawinsonde wind data (10-70 hPa), reveals signatures of tropically confined eastward propagating Kelvin waves of zonal wavenumbers 1-2 during the descending eastward QBO phase, consistent with acceleration of that QBO phase by Kelvin waves. The TOMS results are also consistent with possible forcing of the westward QBO wind phase by episodes of both meridionally symmetric and asymmetric westward waves. However, in contrast to the case of eastward (Kelvin) waves the strongest westward events appear to be filtered by, rather than forcing, the westward phase of the stratospheric QBO wind. These dominant westward episodes are interpreted as meridionally symmetric westward global normal modes and tropically confined equatorial-Rossby waves 2-6. The events exhibit phase and group speeds characteristic of wave dynamics rather than simple wind advection. These results underscore the utility of the long time series and excellent horizontal coverage of TOMS data for dynamical investigations in the relatively observation-poor tropical stratosphere.

Ziemke, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Fine-scale, poleward transport of tropical air during AASE 2

The poleward transport of tropical air in the lower stratosphere during the winter period of the second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE 2) (December 1991-March 1992) is examined using contour advection calcutions. These calculations show that filaments of tropical air extend into mid-latitudes, and are wrapped around the equatorward edge of the polar jet. Simultaneously filaments are drawn from the polar vortex and are intermingled with the filaments of tropical air. The tropical filaments are consistent with measurements of chemical tracers taken aboard the ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft which show localized regions, in mid-latitudes, of air with the characteristics of tropical air.

Waugh, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Decadal variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperature in shipboard measurements and in a Global Ocean-Atmosphere model

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability was investigated in a 200-yr integration of a global model of the coupled oceanic and atmospheric general circulations developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The second 100 yr of SST in the coupled model's tropical Atlantic region were analyzed with a variety of techniques. Analyses of SST time series, averaged over approximately the same subregions as the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) time series, showed that the GFDL SST anomalies also undergo pronounced quasi-oscillatory decadal and multidecadal variability but at somewhat shorter timescales than the GOSTA SST anomalies. Further analyses of the horizontal structures of the decadal timescale variability in the GFDL coupled model showed the existence of two types of variability in general agreement with results of the GOSTA SST time series analyses. One type, characterized by timescales between 8 and 11 yr, has high spatial coherence within each hemisphere but not between the two hemispheres of the tropical Atlantic. A second type, characterized by timescales between 12 and 20 yr, has high spatial coherence between the two hemispheres. The second type of variability is considerably weaker than the first. As in the GOSTA time series, the multidecadal variability in the GFDL SST time series has approximately opposite phases between the tropical North and South Atlantic Oceans. Empirical orthogonal function analyses of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies revealed a north-south bipolar pattern as the dominant pattern of decadal variability. It is suggested that the bipolar pattern can be interpreted as decadal variability of the interhemispheric gradient of SST anomalies. The decadal and multidecadal timescale variability of the tropical Atlantic SST, both in the actual and in the GFDL model, stands out significantly above the background 'red noise' and is coherent within each of the time series, suggesting that specific sets of processes may be responsible for the choice of the decadal and multidecadal timescales. Finally, it must be emphasized that the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere model generates the decadal and multidecadal timescale variability without any externally applied force, solar or lunar, at those timescales.

Mehta, Vikram M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1998

On the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM): Bringing NASA's Earth System Science Program to the Classroom

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission is the first mission dedicated to measuring tropical and subtropical rainfall using a variety of remote sensing instrumentation, including the first spaceborne rain-measuring radar. Since the energy released when tropical rainfall occurs is a primary "fuel" supply for the weather and climate "engine"; improvements in computer models which predict future weather and climate states may depend on better measurements of global tropical rainfall and its energy. In support of the STANYS conference theme of Education and Space, this presentation focuses on one aspect of NASA's Earth Systems Science Program. We seek to present an overview of the TRMM mission. This overview will discuss the scientific motivation for TRMM, the TRMM instrument package, and recent images from tropical rainfall systems and hurricanes. The presentation also targets educational components of the TRMM mission in the areas of weather, mathematics, technology, and geography that can be used by secondary school/high school educators in the classroom.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics and the accompanying latent heat release, NASA for the U.S. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of an Earth Probe satellite to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated heating. Primary mission goals are 1) the understanding of crucial links in climate variability by the hydrological cycle, 2) improvement in the large-scale models of weather and climate 3) improvement in understanding cloud ensembles and their impacts on larger scale circulations. The linkage with the tropical oceans and landmasses are also emphasized. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched in November 1997 with fuel enough to obtain a four to five year data set of rainfall over the global tropics from 37 N to 37 S. This paper reports progress from launch date through the spring of 1999. The data system and its products and their access is described, as are the algorithms used to obtain the data. Some exciting early results from TRMM are described. Some important algorithm improvements are shown. These will be used in the first total data reprocessing, scheduled to be complete in early 2000. The reader is given information on how to access and use the data.

Simpson, Joanne↗