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NASA NTRS1990

Fuel-optimal trajectories for aeroassisted coplanar orbital transfer problem

The optimal control problem arising in coplanar orbital transfer employing aeroassist technology is addressed. The maneuver involves the transfer from high to low earth orbit via the atmosphere, with the object of minimizing the total fuel consumption. Simulations are carried out to obtain the fuel-optimal trajectories for flying the spacecraft through the atmosphere. A highlight is the application of an efficient multiple-shooting method for treating the nonlinear two-point boundary value problem resulting from the optimizaion procedure. The strategy for the atmospheric portion of the minimum-fuel transfer is to fly at the maximum lift-to-drag ratio L/D initially in order to recover from the downward plunge, and then to fly at a negative L/D to level off the flight so that the vehicle skips out of the atmosphere with a flight path angle near zero degrees.

Naidu, Desineni Subbaramaiah↗

NASA NTRS2017

Entry, Descent, and Landing technological barriers and crewed MARSvehicle performance analysis

Mars has been explored historically only by robotic crafts, but a crewed mission encompasses several new engineering challenges – high ballistic coefficient entry, hypersonic decelerators, guided entry for reaching intended destinations within acceptable margins for error in the landing ellipse, and payload mass are all critical factors for evaluation. A comprehensive EDL parametric analysis has been conducted in support of a high mass landing architecture by evaluating three types of vehicles −70° Sphere Cone, Ellipsled and SpaceX hybrid architecture called Red Dragon as potential candidate options for crewed entry vehicles. Aerocapture at the Martian orbit of about 400 km and subsequent Entry-from-orbit scenarios were investigated at velocities of 6.75 km/s and 4 km/s respectively. A study on aerocapture corridor over a range of entry velocities (6–9 km/s) suggests that a hypersonic L/D of 0.3 is sufficient for a Martian aerocapture. Parametric studies conducted by varying aeroshell diameters from 10 m to 15 m for several entry masses up to 150 mt are summarized and results reveal that vehicles with entry masses in the range of about 40–80 mt are capable of delivering cargo with a mass on the order of 5–20 mt. For vehicles with an entry mass of 20 mt to 80 mt, probabilistic Monte Carlo analysis of 5000 cases for each vehicle were run to determine the final landing ellipse and to quantify the statistical uncertainties associated with the trajectory and attitude conditions during atmospheric entry. Strategies and current technological challenges for a human rated Entry, Descent, and Landing to the Martian surface are presented in this study.

Prabhakar Subrahmanyam↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA ATD-2 Trajectory Option Set Prototype Capability for Rerouting Departures in Metroplex Airspace

This paper describes NASA’s Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) Phase 3 prototype capability that is being tested in the North Texas region through summer 2021. For the first time, a shared Decision Support Tool (DST) provides opportunities for participating Flight Operators (FOs) and Air Traffic Controllers (ATCs) to coordinate using a Trajectory Option Set (TOS). When the metroplex airspace is impacted by demand/capacity imbalances, TOS enables departure flights to be rerouted to alternative departure routes with less surface delay.

trajectory option set↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Power Measurements to Excavate Lunar Soil Simulant GRC-3B Using Arc Backhoe Trajectories

Understanding, mitigating, and minimizing power and mass requirements are crucial to developing the next generation excavation technologies for lunar and planetary in-situ resource utilization (ISRU). Towards this end, electrical power to the Advanced Planetary Excavator (APEX) was measured while excavating granular lunar soil simulant GRC-3B. Using a 21.6-cm wide bucket having a 30° leading edge, arc-shaped backhoe trajectories were dug to depths of 5, 10, and 20 cm with rake angles of 10, 20, and 30 degrees. Maximum net power, net energy, net energy per mass excavated, rate of mass excavated, horizontal distance from soil entry to exit (at bucket tip), and the trajectory to bucket volume percentage are presented to inform the scientific community as trajectories and designs are planned for future missions. Using APEX’s capability to evaluate power and energy consumption of excavation tools and processes gives guidance to developing power requirements and efficient methods for lunar excavation.

Excavation↗

NASA NTRS2003

Fuzzy Logic Trajectory Design and Guidance for Terminal Area Energy Management

The second generation reusable launch vehicle will leverage many new technologies to make flight to low earth orbit safer and more cost effective. One important capability will be completely autonomous flight during reentry and landing, thus making it unnecessary to man the vehicle for cargo missions with stringent weight constraints. Implementation of sophisticated new guidance and control methods will enable the vehicle to return to earth under less than favorable conditions. The return to earth consists of three phases--Entry, Terminal Area Energy Management (TAEM), and Approach and Landing. The Space Shuttle is programmed to fly all three phases of flight automatically, and under normal circumstances the astronaut-pilot takes manual control only during the Approach and Landing phase. The automatic control algorithms used in the Shuttle for TAEM and Approach and Landing have been developed over the past 30 years. They are computationally efficient, and based on careful study of the spacecraft's flight dynamics, and heuristic reasoning. The gliding return trajectory is planned prior to the mission, and only minor adjustments are made during flight for perturbations in the vehicle energy state. With the advent of the X-33 and X-34 technology demonstration vehicles, several authors investigated implementing advanced control methods to provide autonomous real-time design of gliding return trajectories thus enhancing the ability of the vehicle to adjust to unusual energy states. The bulk of work published to date deals primarily with the approach and landing phase of flight where changes in heading angle are small, and range to the runway is monotonically decreasing. These benign flight conditions allow for model simplification and fairly straightforward optimization. This project focuses on the TAEM phase of flight where mathematically precise methods have produced limited results. Fuzzy Logic methods are used to make onboard autonomous gliding return trajectory design robust to a wider energy envelope, and the possibility of control surface failures, thus increasing the flexibility of unmanned gliding recovery and landing.

Burchett, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2005

Review of NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Program Inflatable Decelerator Investments

The NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Program is managed by the NASA Headquarters Science Mission Directorate and is implemented by the Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. The ISPT objective is to fund development of promising in- space propulsion technologies that can decrease flight times, decrease cost, or increase delivered payload mass for future science missions. Before ISPT will invest in a technology, the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the concept must be estimated to be at TRL 3. A TRL 3 signifies that the technical community agrees that the feasibility of the concept has been proven through experiment or analysis. One of the highest priority technology investments for ISPT is Aerocapture. The aerocapture maneuver uses a planetary atmosphere to reduce or alter the speed of a vehicle allowing for quick, propellantless (or using very little propellant) orbit capture. The atmosphere is used as a brake, transferring the energy associated with the vehicle s high speed into thermal energy. The ISPT Aerocapture Technology Area (ATA) is currently investing in the development of advanced lightweight ablative thermal protection systems, high temperature composite structures, and heat-flux sensors for rigid aeroshells. The heritage of rigid aeroshells extends back to the Apollo era and this technology will most likely be used by the first generation aerocapture vehicle. As a second generation aerocapture technology, ISPT is investing in three inflatable aerodynamic decelerator concepts for planetary aerocapture. They are: trailing ballute (balloon-parachute), attached afterbody ballute, and an inflatable aeroshell. ISPT also leverages the NASA Small Business Innovative Research Program for additional inflatable decelerator technology development. In mid-2004 ISPT requested an independent review of the three inflatable decelerator technologies funded directly by ISPT to validate the TRL and to identify technology maturation concerns. An independent panel with expertise in advanced thin film materials, aerothermodynamics, trajectory design, and inflatable structures was convened to assess the ISPT investments. The panel considered all major technical subsystems including materials, aerothermodynamics, structural dynamics, packaging, and inflation systems. The panel assessed the overall technology readiness of inflatable decelerators to be a 3 and identified fluid-structure interaction, aeroheating, and structural adhesives to be of highest technical concern.

Richardson, Erin H.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Review of NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Program Inflatable Decelerator Investments

The NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Program is managed by the NASA Headquarters Science Mission Directorate and is implemented by the Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. The ISPT objective is to fund development of promising in-space propulsion technologies that can decrease flight times, decrease cost, or increase delivered payload mass for future science missions. Before ISPT will invest in a technology, the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the concept must be estimated to be at TRL 3. A TRL 3 signifies that the technical community agrees that the feasibility of the concept has been proven through experiment or analysis. One of the highest priority technology investments for ISPT is Aerocapture. The aerocapture maneuver uses a planetary atmosphere to reduce or alter the speed of a vehicle allowing for quick, propellantless (or using very little propellant) orbit capture. The atmosphere is used as a brake, transferring the energy associated with the vehicle's high speed into thermal energy. The ISPT Aerocapture Technology Area (ATA) is currently investing in the development of advanced lightweight ablative thermal protection systems, high temperature composite structures, and heat-flux sensors for rigid aeroshells. The heritage of rigid aeroshells extends back to the Apollo era and this technology will most likely be used by the first generation aerocapture vehicle. As a second generation aerocapture technology, ISPT is investing in three inflatable aerodynamic decelerator concepts for planetary aerocapture. They are: trailing ballute (balloon-parachute), attached afterbody ballute, and an inflatable aeroshell. ISPT also leverages the NASA Small Business Innovative Research Program for additional inflatable decelerator technology development. In mid-2004 ISPT requested an independent review of the three inflatable decelerator technologies funded directly by ISPT to validate the TRL and to identify technology maturation concerns. An independent panel with expertise in advanced thin film materials, aerothermodynamics, trajectory design, and inflatable structures was convened to assess the ISPT investments. The panel considered all major technical subsystems including materials, aerothermodynamics, structural dynamics, packaging, and inflation systems. The panel assessed the overall technology readiness of inflatable decelerators to be a 3 and identified fluid- structure interaction, aeroheating, and structural adhesives to be of highest technical concern.

Richardson, E. H.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Integration, Evaluation and Transition

NASA's Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) research activity is assessing the use of surface trajectory-based takeoff (OFF) time estimates for en route domain departure scheduling in Call For Release situations. Current aircraft departure release times computed by an Air Traffic Management decision support tool to meet Call For Release constraints are based on coarse estimates of aircraft OFF times. Uncertainty in OFF time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into an overhead stream and lost throughput. However, technology exists to improve OFF time estimates by using more accurate aircraft trajectory predictions available in NextGen airport surface management decision support tools. PDRC findings are expected to be broadly applicable to NextGen integrated arrival/departure/surface implementations. For concept development and evaluation purposes this research activity integrates NASA's Surface Management System (SMS) OFF time prediction capabilities with Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) departure scheduling functions. PDRC field evaluations are being conducted at the North Texas (NTX) Research Station. The NASA/FAA Integrated Arrival/Departure/Surface Research Transition Team is using PDRC as a pathfinder for developing technology transfer mechanisms and procedures.

Engelland, Shawn A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nine Canyon Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Feasibility Study

The Nine Canyon Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) Feasibility Study explores the technical and economic viability of deploying advanced energy storage technologies at Energy Northwest's (EN) Nine Canyon (9C) Wind Project site in Benton County, Washington. Supported by the Washington State Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity under its LDES Voucher Program, the study represents a collaborative effort between EN, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and ARES North America. At the core of this effort is the development of a generalized techno-economic modeling framework and evaluation tool designed to assess the value proposition of LDES projects across a variety of contexts. The modeling tool is technology-agnostic and accommodates user-defined parameters such as rated power, energy duration, round-trip efficiency, capital and operational costs, and dispatch constraints. It also integrates economic inputs, including market prices, energy revenue structures, and financing parameters to evaluate performance through key metrics. The tool provides utilities with a transparent, adaptable platform to support decision-making, investment prioritization, and portfolio planning for various storage technologies. To guide scenario design and interpretation, the study first surveyed the LDES technology landscape, including lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, non-hydro gravity storage, and thermo-mechanical systems, comparing cost trajectories, technical performance, safety and hazards, materials sourcing and recyclability, and spatial/siting considerations. This literature-grounded review highlights technology trade-offs and reinforces the need to align technology choice with site characteristics, use cases, and project objectives. A companion chapter examines ownership structures (EN ownership, third-party ownership, shared models) and offtake options (energy marketing, capacity/energy PPAs, time-of-use PPAs, block-delivery PPAs, and tolling), where PPAs (power purchase agreements) represent contractual arrangements for buying and selling electricity. The chapter also highlights implications for risk allocation, capital access, operational control, and revenue certainty. The study also evaluates supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and transmission interconnection pathways, options include upgrading the existing SCADA or deploying a dedicated LDES controller, with attention to protection schemes, data telemetry, cybersecurity, and regulatory coordination with BPA. In addition, an ARES-specific geotechnical and hydrology assessment presented in the appendix screens multiple corridors for slope stability, bearing capacity, cut-and-fill magnitude, and stormwater behavior.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Asteroid Material Properties from a DART-like Kinetic Impact

Abstract NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is the first full-scale test of the kinetic impactor method for asteroid deflection, in which a spacecraft intentionally impacts an asteroid to change its trajectory. DART represents an important first step for planetary defense technology demonstration, providing a realistic assessment of the effectiveness of the kinetic impact approach on a near-Earth asteroid. The momentum imparted to the asteroid is transferred from the impacting spacecraft and enhanced by the momentum of material ejected from the impact site. However, the magnitude of the ejecta contribution is dependent on the material properties of the target. These properties, such as strength and shear modulus, are unknown for the DART target asteroid, Dimorphos, as well as most asteroids since such properties are difficult to characterize remotely. This study examines how hydrocode simulations can be used to estimate material properties from information available post-impact, specifically the asteroid size and shape, the velocity and properties of the impacting spacecraft, and the final velocity change imparted to the asteroid. Across >300 three-dimensional simulations varying seven material parameters describing the asteroid, we found many combinations of properties could reproduce a particular asteroid velocity. Additional observations, such as asteroid mass or crater size, are required to further constrain properties like asteroid strength or outcomes like the momentum enhancement provided by impact ejecta. Our results demonstrate the vital importance of having as much knowledge as possible prior to an impact mission, with key material parameters being the asteroid’s mass, porosity, strength, and elastic properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Space tug aerobraking study. Volume 1: Executive summary

The feasibility and practicality of employing an aerobraking trajectory for return of the reusable space tug from geosynchronous orbit was investigated. The aerobraking return trajectory modes employ transfer ellipses from high orbits which have low perigee altitudes wherein the earth's sensible atmosphere provides drag to reduce the tug return delta velocity requirements and thus decrease the required return trip propulsive energy. Aerodynamics, aerothermodynamics, trajectories, guidance and control, configuration concepts, materials, weights and performance were considered. Sensitivities to trajectory uncertainties, atmospheric anomalies and reentry environments were determined. New technology requirements and future studies required to further enhance the aerobraking potential were identified.

Corso, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Planetary Defense: Options for Deflection of Near Earth Objects

Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This document reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of Near Earth Objects (NEO’s) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are then given of an MSFC-led study, intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEO’s. An existing program, used to model the NEO threat, was extensively modified and is presented here. Details of various analytical tools, developed to evaluate the performance of proposed technologies for protection against the NEO threat, are also presented. Trajectory tools, developed to model the outbound path a vehicle would take to intercept or rendezvous with a target asteroid or comet, are described. Also, details are given of a tool that was created to model both the un-deflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, post-deflection, path. The number of possible options available for protection against the NEO threat was too numerous for them to all be addressed within the study; instead, a representative selection were modeled and evaluated. The major output from this work was a novel process by which the relative effectiveness of different threat mitigation concepts can be evaluated during future, more detailed, studies. In addition, several new or modified mathematical models were developed to analyze various proposed protection systems. A summary of the major lessons learned during this study is presented, as are recommendations for future work. It is hoped that this study will serve to raise the level attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.

Planets↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wind Tunnel Testing of Static Aerodynamic and Power Consumption Characteristics of an Octocopter

The introduction of multirotor unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in low-altitude airspace poses significant safety challenges. Further development of advanced aviation systems is needed to realize the full potential of UAS applications, particularly for urban and beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) operations. The NASA System Wide Safety (SWS) project is developing key technologies to mitigate future airspace safety risks involving autonomous aircraft operation in densely populated areas. An important part of these technologies requires flight dynamics and performance models to assess feasible trajectories, power consumption requirements, and operational envelope limitations. To support these efforts, this research seeks to improve the accuracy of multirotor aerodynamic models and investigate stability characteristics relevant to flight safety. This paper presents a recent study of an octocopter vehicle using the NASA Langley 12-Foot Low-Speed Tunnel (LST). Results from isolated-airframe (no propellers) and powered-airframe tests are presented. A one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) approach was used to explore the effect of propeller advance ratio and vehicle angle of attack on vehicle forces, moments, and power consumption. The results show nonlinear aerodynamic behavior and indicate regions where aerodynamic interaction effects may be significant.

George V. Altamirano↗

NASA NTRS2003

Scale Model Experiments on Sound Propagation From a Mach 2.5 Cold Nitrogen Jet Flowing Through a Rigid-Walled Duct With a J-Deflector

The Launch Systems Testbed (LST) represents the evolution of vibroacoustics research and development work performed at NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) over the last 15 years. The LST is located at the Launch Equipment Test Facility (LETF) in the KSC industrial complex. The LETF is operated by Sierra Lobo, Inc., as a member of University-Affiliated Technology Development Contract (USTDC) to KSC Spaceport and Engineering and Technology Directorate (YA), with ASRC Aerospace Corporation as a the prime contractor. Trajectory Simulation Mechanism (TSM) is a major component of the LST, developed specifically to simulate nonstationary acoustic loads on launch pad structures, vehicles, and payloads. TSM enhances the capabilities within LST for simulating launch environments of future vehicles. The scaled launch environments will be used to predict the full-scale launch environment via an appropriate scaling procedure. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) has tasked NASA KSC to perform a basic technology test program in support of developing a low-cost clean pad (incorporating passive mitigation techniques) for future launch vehicles. The overall goal of the program is to develop innovative launch exhaust management systems, which effectively reduce launch acoustic environment with innovative duct designs, while eliminating traditional sound suppression water systems. Passive techniques, such as nontraditional duct geometries, resonators, and diffusers, etc., will be investigated. The overall goals are to advance innovative concepts for a clean pad while developing ideas to reduce transmitted sound via investigation and modeling of jet exhaust acoustic and flow field characteristics. The series of tests outlined in this report represent baseline tests and are geared towards defining the acoustic load environment on the TSM pad for open and closed duct configurations. This report summarizes the cold jet acoustic testing for Mach 2.5 supersonic nitrogen jet issuing from a nozzle with 1-inch exit diameter. Acoustic data, including spectral sound power and Overall Sound Pressure Level (OASPL), are obtained both for a free jet and with the jet flowing through a rigid-walled duct with a J-deflector. The relative performance of closed duct and open duct is evaluated. The results show that the closed duct is superior to the partially open duct, and results in about 3-decibel (dB) noise reduction (near the duct axis) relative to the free jet. The location of the nozzle exit plane (NEP) relative to the duct inlet plane (DIP) has a significant effect on the acoustic field. The results suggest that the location of NEP at 10 inches above the DIP results in reduced acoustic loads relative to 5 inches above the duct inlet and 1 inch into the duct inlet.

Kandula, Max↗

NASA NTRS1975

High performance dash on warning air mobile, missile system

An aircraft-missile system which performs a high acceleration takeoff followed by a supersonic dash to a 'safe' distance from the launch site is presented. Topics considered are: (1) technological feasibility to the dash on warning concept; (2) aircraft and boost trajectory requirements; and (3) partial cost estimates for a fleet of aircraft which provide 200 missiles on airborne alert. Various aircraft boost propulsion systems were studied such as an unstaged cryogenic rocket, an unstaged storable liquid, and a solid rocket staged system. Various wing planforms were also studied. Vehicle gross weights are given. The results indicate that the dash on warning concept will meet expected performance criteria, and can be implemented using existing technology, such as all-aluminum aircraft and existing high-bypass-ratio turbofan engines.

Levin, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Solar Sails

The Solar Sail Propulsion investment area has been one of the three highest priorities within the In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Project. In the fall of 2003, the NASA Headquarters' Science Mission Directorate provided funding and direction to mature the technology as far as possible through ground research and development from TRL 3 to 6 in three years. A group of experts from government, industry, and academia convened in Huntsville, Alabama to define technology gaps between what was needed for science missions to the inner solar system and the current state of the art in ultra1ightweight materials and gossamer structure design. This activity set the roadmap for development. The centerpiece of the development would be the ground demonstration of scalable solar sail systems including masts, sails, deployment mechanisms, and attitude control hardware and software. In addition, new materials would be subjected to anticipated space environments to quantify effects and assure mission life. Also, because solar sails are huge structures, and it is not feasible to validate the technology by ground test at full scale, a multi-discipline effort was established to develop highly reliable analytical models to serve as mission assurance evidence in future flight program decision-making. Two separate contractor teams were chosen to develop the SSP System Ground Demonstrator (SGD). After a three month conceptual mission/system design phase, the teams developed a ten meter diameter pathfinder set of hardware and subjected it to thermal vacuum tests to compare analytically predicted structural behavior with measured characteristics. This process developed manufacturing and handling techniques and refined the basic design. In 2005, both contractor teams delivered 20 meter, four quadrant sail systems to the largest thermal vacuum chamber in the world in Plum Brook, Ohio, and repeated the tests. Also demonstrated was the deployment and articulation of attitude control mechanisms. In conjunction with these tests, the stowed sails were subjected to launch vibration and ascent vent tests. Other investments studied radiation effects on the solar sail materials, investigated spacecraft charging issues, developed shape measuring techniques and instruments, produced advanced trajectory modeling capabilities, and identified and resolved gossamer structure dynamics issues. Technology validation flight and application to a He1iophysics science mission is on the horizon.

Young, Roy↗

NASA NTRS2006

Trajectory and Aeroheating Environment Development and Sensitivity Analysis for Capsule-shaped Vehicles

Recently, NASA's Exploration Systems Research and Technology Project funded several tasks that endeavored to develop and evaluate various thermal protection systems and high temperature material concepts for potential use on the crew exploration vehicle. In support of these tasks, NASA Langley's Vehicle Analysis Branch generated trajectory information and associated aeroheating environments for more than 60 unique entry cases. Using the Apollo Command Module as the baseline entry system because of its relevance to the favored crew exploration vehicle design, trajectories for a range of lunar and Mars return, direct and aerocapture Earth-entry scenarios were developed. For direct entry, a matrix of cases was created that reflects reasonably expected minimum and maximum values of vehicle ballistic coefficient, inertial velocity at entry interface, and inertial flight path angle at entry interface. For aerocapture, trajectories were generated for a range of values of initial velocity and ballistic coefficient that, when combined with proper initial flight path angles, resulted in achieving a low Earth orbit either by employing a full lift vector up or full lift vector down attitude. For each trajectory generated, aeroheating environments were generated which were intended to bound the thermal protection system requirements for likely crew exploration vehicle concepts. The trades examined clearly pointed to a range of missions / concepts that will require ablative systems as well as a range for which reusable systems may be feasible. In addition, the results clearly indicated those entry conditions and modes suitable for manned flight, considering vehicle deceleration levels experienced during entry. This paper presents an overview of the analysis performed, including the assumptions, methods, and general approach used, as well as a summary of the trajectory and aerothermal environment information that was generated.

Robinson, Jeffrey S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios toward Global Decarbonization: Role of Disruptive Technologies

To totally decarbonize global electrical systems using photovoltaics (PVs) in the 2050–2060 decade, the world would need to install 63.4 TW of PV. This article models and explores how a PV manufacturing ramp‐up trajectory toward this goal can be achieved while assuming that investors continue to make financially rational decisions avoiding stranded production assets and therefore protecting their return on investment. The model effectively exploits experience curve benefits in both the scaling of the manufacturing process and continued progress in product design technologies. The scale‐up challenge is amplified because trajectories that achieve this goal require an unprecedented ramp‐up of production capacity over just two decades, followed by relatively modest demand to maintain the installed base and support continued population growth. It is demonstrated that sustainable ramp‐up of manufacturing is indeed possible and shown that the deployment of the requisite manufacturing capacity can be accelerated and accomplished at lower total capital cost by the introduction of disruptive technologies that have lower capital intensity, embedded energy, or higher efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗