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At least 181 records · Page 10

High-Resolution Meteorology with Climate Change Impacts from Global Climate Model Data Using Generative Machine Learning

As renewable energy generation increases, the impacts of weather and climate on energy generation and demand become critical to the reliability of the energy system. However, these impacts are often overlooked. Global climate models (GCMs) can be used to understand possible changes to our climate, but their coarse resolution makes them difficult to use in energy system modelling. Here we present open-source generative machine learning methods that produce meteorological data at a nominal spatial resolution of 4 km at an hourly frequency based on inputs from 100 km daily-average GCM data. These methods run 40 times faster than traditional downscaling methods and produce data that have high-resolution spatial and temporal attributes similar to historical datasets. We demonstrate that these methods can be used to downscale projected changes in wind, solar and temperature variables across multiple GCMs including projections for more frequent low-wind and high-temperature events in the Eastern United States.

climate change↗

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Lau, K. M.↗

Physical Processes Controlling the Distribution of Relative Humidity in the Tropical Tropopause Layer over the Pacific

The distribution of relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) in the Boreal wintertime Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL - about 14-19 km) over the Pacific is examined with the extensive dataset of measurements from the NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX). Multiple deployments of the Global Hawk during ATTREX provided hundreds of vertical profiles spanning the Pacific with accurate measurements of temperature, pressure, water vapor concentration, ozone concentration, and cloud properties. We also compare the measured RHI distributions with results from a transport and microphysical model driven by meteorological analysis fields. Notable features in the distribution of RHI versus temperature and longitude include (1) the common occurrence of RHI values near ice saturation over the western Pacific in the lower TTL (temperatures greater than 200 K) and in airmasses with low ozone concentrations indicating recent detrainment from deep convection; (2) low RHI values in the lower TTL over the eastern Pacific where deep convection is infrequent; (3) RHI values following a constant H2O mixing ratio in the upper TTL (temperatures below about 195 degrees Kelvin), particularly for samples with ozone mixing ratios greater than about 50-100 parts-per-billion-volume indicating mixtures of tropospheric and stratospheric air, and (4) RHI values typically near ice saturation in the coldest airmasses sampled (temperatures less than about 190 degrees Kelvin). We find that the typically saturated air in the lower TTL over the western Pacific is largely driven by the frequent occurrence of deep convection in this region. The nearly-constant water vapor mixing ratios in the upper TTL result from the combination of slow ascent (resulting in long residence times) and wave-driven temperature variability on a range of time scales (resulting in most air parcels having experienced low temperature and dehydration).

ozone↗

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the Contiguous United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture, and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of both daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures can be detrimental to human health. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with summertime heat waves manifested during daytime versus nighttime hours over the contiguous United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Over 1980–2018, the increase in the number of heat wave days per summer was generally stronger for nighttime heat wave days than daytime heat wave days, with localized regions of significant positive trends. Processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of precipitation, soil moisture, clouds, humidity and fluxes of heat and moisture. Daytime heat waves are associated with dry conditions, reduced cloud cover, and increased sensible heating. Mechanisms leading to nighttime heat waves differ regionally across the US, but they are typically associated with increased clouds, humidity and/or low-level temperature advection. In the Midwest US, enhanced moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico during nighttime heat waves.

Extreme events↗

Variability in Diurnal and Seasonal Ambient Conditions on Geothermal Plant Performance and Cost: Preprint

Geothermal plant performance is bounded by the second law efficiency, which accounts for the quantity of exergy that can be converted into useful work. This in turn is dependent on the geothermal resource temperature and the temperature of the heat sink (i.e., the ambient temperature). In this study we show that ambient temperature variability on a diurnal and seasonal basis can affect performance and cost estimations for geothermal plants. We have utilized the updated System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess nine geothermal sites with existing resource capacities across three climate zones. Our analysis shows that both evaporatively-cooled flash and air-cooled binary cycle plants are affected by temperature, with a slightly higher effect in EGS binary sites. By assuming an ambient (wet bulb) temperature baseline of 15.6 degrees C (60 degrees F) and comparing baseline results to those from site-specific data we observe up to 15% underestimation of plant performance and up to 20% overestimation of cost.

ambient temperature↗

Noise produced by fluid inhomogeneities

In an actual engine system, one mechanism for production of hot spots is the burning of various fluid elements at various different mixture ratios. Variable mixture ratio means variable temperature, and this is the effect that has been studied insofar as a noise source is concerned. However, variable mixture ratio also implies variable molecular weight and heat capacity. The paper investigates whether either of these last two variations may be responsible for a significant noise source. The analysis is made within the context of one-dimensional unsteady flow as in the work of Candel (1972). A mixture of thermally perfect gases is assumed as the working fluid, and the fluid composition consists of species 1 and a small and variable mole fraction of species 2 which has different molecular weight and specific heats as compared with species 1. In the absence of changes in the ratio of specific heat (gamma), the entropy variations due to temperature and molecular weight variations are equivalent as a sound source. The portion of sound called 'gamma prime' noise is discussed.

Strahle, W. C.↗

Influences of CO2 sublimation/condensation processes on the long-term evolution of the Martian atmosphere

The accumulation process of frozen CO2 within the Martian regolith is analyzed. The boundary conditions are taken to be the periodically variable temperature at the Mars surface and the constant heat flux at the bottom of the regolith layers, some hundred meters thick. The mean value of temperature as well as its amplitude are assumed to be dependent on latitude and could be variable with the geological time scale. The flux of gaseous CO2 within the regolith is controlled by the mechanism of gas transport through the porous medium. An appropriate initial geometry of distribution of pores is assumed. The porosity and flux change due to condensation/sublimation processes. The equations of heat and mass transfer are solved numerically for a given latitude. Next, the local (over the parallel of latitude belt) annual balance of CO2 is calculated. The procedure is repeated over the whole Martian surface and next the total annual net flux is calculated.

Kossacki, K.↗

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of daily maximum (T(max)) and minimum (T(min)) temperatures can both be detrimental to human health. Previous studies have concluded that the frequency of global heat waves has increased over recent decades, with greater increases in T(min)- than T(max)-heat waves in several regions. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with heatwaves manifest during daytime versus nighttime hours over the United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). A daytime (nighttime) heat wave is defined as average daytime (nighttime) temperature exceeding its calendar day 90th percentile for at least 3 days. Over 1980-2018, the number of heat wave days per summer has increased over much of the United States. Trends are stronger for nighttime versus daytime heat wave frequency over the Northeast, Midwest and Southwest United States. Local and remote processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of clouds, precipitation, soil moisture, and fluxes of heat and moisture. Finally, we characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with daytime and nighttime heat waves over different regions of the United States.

Thomas, N.↗

Asymmetric temperature equilibration with heat flow from cold to hot in a quantum thermodynamic system

A model computational quantum thermodynamic network is constructed with two variable temperature baths coupled by a linker system, with an asymmetry in the coupling of the linker to the two baths. It is found in computational simulations that the baths come to “thermal equilibrium” at different bath energies and temperatures. In a sense, heat is observed to flow from cold to hot. Additionally, a description is given in which a recently defined quantum entropy S univ Q for a pure state “universe” continues to increase after passing through the classical equilibrium point of equal temperatures, reaching a maximum at the asymmetric equilibrium. Thus, a second law account Δ S univ Q ≥ 0 holds for the asymmetric quantum process. In contrast, a von Neumann entropy description fails to uphold the entropy law, with a maximum near when the two temperatures are equal, then a decrease Δ S v N < 0 on the way to the asymmetric equilibrium.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Experimental evaluation of a translating nozzle sidewall radial turbine

Studies have shown that reduced specific fuel consumption of rotorcraft engines can be achieved with a variable capacity engine. A key component in such an engine in a high-work, high-temperature variable geometry gas generator turbine. An optimization study indicated that a radial turbine with a translating nozzle sidewall could produce high efficiency over a wide range of engine flows but substantiating data were not available. An experimental program with Teledyne CAE, Toledo, Ohio was undertaken to evaluate the moving sidewall concept. A variety of translating nozzle sidewall turbine configurations were evaluated. The effects of nozzle leakage and coolant flows were also investigated. Testing was done in warm air (121 C). The results of the contractual program were summarized.

Roelke, Richard J.↗

A Meteorological Overview of the TC4 Mission

The TC4 mission in Central America during summer 2007 examined convective transport into the tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) and the evolution of cirrus clouds. The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) circulation is dominated by the Asian monsoon anticyclone and westward winds that stretch from the western Pacific into the Atlantic. During TC4, TTL westward flow over Central America was stronger than normal. Incidence of cold clouds over the Central American region was the third lowest out of 34 years sampled. The major factor was an incipient La Nina, specifically anomalously cold temperatures off the Pacific Coast of South America. Weakness in the low level Caribbean jet caused a shift in the coldest clouds from the Caribbean to the Pacific side of Central America. The character of tropopause temperature variability was that of upward propagating waves generated by local and nonlocal convection. These waves produced tropopause temperature variations of 3 K, with peak-to-peak variations of 8 K. At low levels in Central America, flow from the Sahara desert predominated; further south, the air came from the Amazon region. Convectively influenced air in the upper troposphere came from Central America, the northern Amazon region, the Atlantic ITCZ, and the North American monsoon. In the TTL, Asian and African convection affected the observed air masses. North of 10N in the Central American TTL, African and Asian convection may have contributed as much to the air masses as Central and South American convection. South of 8N, Asian and African convection had far less impact.

Pfister, L.↗

Technology Development Plan and Preliminary Results for a Low Temperature Hybrid Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

A hybrid propulsion system is being considered for a potential Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) based on its low temperature capability, ability to restart and high performance. The hybrid’s ability to survive in low and variable temperatures reduces power requirements and therefore system mass. Its ability to restart enables a Single Stage to Orbit (SSTO) design, minimizing system complexity. The hybrid’s high-performance (approximately 314 s Isp (I (sub sp)) (specific impulse in seconds) leads to a low total Gross Lift Off Mass (GLOM). These advantages set the hybrid design above the alternatives in the system studies completed at JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory). However, this solution has the lowest Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the propulsion options. Therefore, a technology development effort has been undertaken to raise the TRL of the hybrid option and potentially enable its infusion into a future MAV or other in-space application. The culmination of this technology development is a flight demonstration, which is currently in the planning phases for launch in the early 2020’s.

Karp, Ashley↗

Decoding the Mechanisms of Phase Transitions from In Situ Microscopy Observations

Abstract Analysis of the temperature‐ and stimulus‐dependent imaging data toward elucidation of the physical transformations is an ubiquitous problem in multiple fields. Here, temperature‐induced phase transition in BaTiO 3 is explored using the machine learning analysis of domain morphologies visualized via variable‐temperature scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) imaging data. This approach is based on the multivariate statistical analysis of the time or temperature dependence of the statistical descriptors of the system, derived in turn from the categorical classification of observed domain structures or projection on the continuous parameter space of the feature extraction‐dimensionality reduction transform. The proposed workflow offers a powerful tool for the exploration of the dynamic data based on the statistics of image representation as a function of the external control variable to visualize the transformation pathways during phase transitions and chemical reactions. This can include the mesoscopic STEM data as demonstrated here, but also optical, chemical imaging, etc., data. It can further be extended to the higher dimensional spaces, for example, analysis of the combinatorial libraries of materials compositions.

Valleti, Sai Mani Prudhvi↗

Mechanistic Pathways for N 2 O Elimination from trans -R 3 Sn-O-N=N-O-SnR 3 and for Reversible Binding of CO 2 to R 3 Sn-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph, Cy)

The rate and mechanism of the elimination of N 2 O from trans-R 3 Sn-O-N=N-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph ( 1 Ph ) and R = Cy ( 1 Cy )) to form R 3 Sn-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph ( 2 Ph ) and R = Cy ( 2 Cy )) have been studied using both NMR and IR techniques to monitor the reactions in the temperature range of 39–79 °C in C 6 D 6 . Activation parameters for this reaction are ΔH ‡ = 15.8 ± 2.0 kcal·mol –1 and ΔS ‡ = –28.5 ± 5 cal·mol –1 ·K –1 for 1 Ph and ΔH ‡ = 22.7 ± 2.5 kcal·mol –1 and ΔS ‡ = –12.4 ± 6 cal·mol –1 ·K –1 for 1 Cy . Addition of O 2 , CO 2 , N 2 O, or PPh 3 to sealed tube NMR experiments did not alter in a detectable way the rate or product distribution of the reactions. Computational DFT studies of elimination of hyponitrite from trans-Me 3 Sn-O-N=N-O-SnMe 3 ( 1 Me ) yield a mechanism involving initial migration of the R 3 Sn group from O to N passing through a marginally stable intermediate product and subsequent N 2 O elimination. Reactions of 1 Ph with protic acids HX are rapid and lead to formation of R 3 SnX and trans-H 2 N 2 O 2 . Reaction of 1 Ph with the metal radical •Cr(CO) 3 C 5 Me 5 at low concentrations results in rapid evolution of N 2 O. At higher •Cr(CO) 3 C 5 Me 5 concentrations, evolution of CO 2 rather than N 2 O is observed. Addition of 1 atm or less CO 2 to benzene or toluene solutions of 2 Ph and 2 Cy resulted in very rapid reaction to form the corresponding carbonates R 3 Sn-O-C(=O)-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph ( 3 Ph ) and R = Cy ( 3 Cy )) at room temperature. Evacuation results in fast loss of bound CO 2 and regeneration of 2 Ph and 2 Cy . Variable temperature data for formation of 3 Cy yield ΔH o = –8.7 ± 0.6 kcal·mol –1 , ΔS o = –17.1 ± 2.0 cal·mol –1 ·K –1 , and ΔG o 298K = –3.6 ± 1.2 kcal·mol –1 . Furthermore, DFT studies were performed and provide additional insight into the energetics and mechanisms for the reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Low Thermal Conductivity in Heteroanionic Materials with Layers of Homoleptic Polyhedra

Although BiAgOSe, an analogue of a well-studied thermoelectric material BiCuOSe, is thermodynamically stable, its synthesis is complicated by the low driving force of formation from the stable binary and ternary intermediates. Here we have developed a “subtraction strategy” to suppress byproducts and produce pure phase BiAgOSe using hydrothermal methods. Electronic structure calculations and optical characterization show that BiAgOSe is an indirect bandgap semiconductor with a bandgap of 0.95 eV. The prepared sample exhibits lower lattice thermal conductivities (0.61 W·m –1 ·K –1 at room temperature and 0.35 W·m –1 ·K –1 at 650 K) than BiCuOSe. Further, lattice dynamical simulations and variable temperature diffraction measurements demonstrate that the low lattice thermal conductivity arises from both the low sound velocity and high phonon–phonon scattering rates in BiAgOSe. These in turn result primarily from the soft Ag–Se bonds in the edge-sharing AgSe 4 tetrahedra and large sublattice mismatch between the quasi-two-dimensional [Bi 2 O 2 ] 2+ and [Ag 2 Se 2 ] 2– layers. These results highlight the advantages of manipulating the chemistry of homoleptic polyhedra in heteroanionic compounds for electronic structure and phonon transport control.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

SULI Technical Report: WIRE (Draft)

Local climate undoubtedly affects facility maintenance requirements; however, knowledge of the link between weather and facility condition over time is grounded in the 1990s and needs to be updated. WIRE aims to quantify the relationship between climate and infrastructure by calculating climate-based service life estimates to be used in BUILDER, a program the Department of Energy (DOE) uses for facility management. Phase One of this project is a case study on window-or-wall-mounted AC units. The independent variables influencing service life are load, maintenance quality, and effective age, with load calculated from three weather variables: temperature, humidity, and solar radiation. Given sufficient data, service life can be calculated as a function of these variables via regression. WIRE is currently collecting data. Preliminary estimated service life projections as a function of load derived from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) data support the need for updated analysis on the relationship between climate and facility condition. With the groundwork laid, WIRE can generate deliverables immediately upon arrival of data. The methods used for this case study constitute a framework for deriving the relationship between weather variables and service life for other components.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Al 0.7 Ga 0.3 N MESFET With All-Refractory Metal Process for High Temperature Operation

In this work, ultrawide bandgap Al 0.7 Ga 0.3 N MESFETs with refractory Tungsten Schottky and Ohmic contacts are studied in 300–675 K environments. Variable-temperature dc electrical transport reveals large ON-state drain current densities for an AlGaN device: 209 mA/mm at 300 K and 156 mA/mm at 675 K in the ON-state (25% reduction). Drain and gate currents are only weakly temperature-dependent, suggesting potential for engineering temperature invariant operation. The ON-/ OFF-ratio is limited by OFF-state leakage through the gate, which is attributed to damage from sputter deposition. Future work using refractory metals with larger work functions that are deposited by electron beam deposition is proposed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Moisture and Temperature Influences on Nonlinear Vegetation Trends in Serengeti National Park

While long-term vegetation greening trends have appeared across large land areas over the late 20th century, uncertainty remains in identifying and attributing finer-scale vegetation changes and trends, particularly across protected areas. Serengeti National Park (SNP) is a critical East African protected area, where seasonal vegetation cycles support vast populations of grazing herbivores and a host of ecosystem dynamics. Previous work has shown how non-climate drivers (e.g. land use) shape the SNP ecosystem, but it is still unclear to what extent changing climate conditions influence SNP vegetation, particularly at finer spatial and temporal scales. We fill this research gap by evaluating long-term (1982–2016) changes in SNP leaf area index (LAI) in relation to both temperature and moisture availability using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Principal Component Analysis with regression techniques. We find that SNP LAI trends are nonlinear, display high sub-seasonal variation, and are influenced by lagged changes in both moisture and temperature variables and their interactions. LAI during the long rains (e.g. March) exhibits a greening-to-browning trend reversal starting in the early 2000s, partly due to antecedent precipitation declines. In contrast, LAI during the short rains (e.g. November, December) displays browning-to-greening alongside increasing moisture availability. Rising temperature trends also have important, secondary interactions with moisture variables to shape these SNP vegetation trends. Our findings show complex vegetation-climate interactions occurring at important temporal and spatial scales of the SNP, and our rigorous statistical approaches detect these complex climate-vegetation trends and interactions, while guarding against spurious vegetation signals.

Moisture↗