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NASA NTRS2000

CNES-NASA Studies of the Mars Sample Return Orbiter Aerocapture Phase

A Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission has been proposed as a joint CNES (Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales) and NASA effort in the ongoing Mars Exploration Program. The MSR mission is designed to return the first samples of Martian soil to Earth. The primary elements of the mission are a lander, rover, ascent vehicle, orbiter, and an Earth entry vehicle. The Orbiter has been allocated only 2700 kg on the launch phase to perform its part of the mission. This mass restriction has led to the decision to use an aerocapture maneuver at Mars for the orbiter. Aerocapture replaces the initial propulsive capture maneuver with a single atmospheric pass. This atmospheric pass will result in the proper apoapsis, but a periapsis raise maneuver is required at the first apoapsis. The use of aerocapture reduces the total mass requirement by approx. 45% for the same payload. This mission will be the first to use the aerocapture technique. Because the spacecraft is flying through the atmosphere, guidance algorithms must be developed that will autonomously provide the proper commands to reach the desired orbit while not violating any of the design parameters (e.g. maximum deceleration, maximum heating rate, etc.). The guidance algorithm must be robust enough to account for uncertainties in delivery states, atmospheric conditions, mass properties, control system performance, and aerodynamics. To study this very critical phase of the mission, a joint CNES-NASA technical working group has been formed. This group is composed of atmospheric trajectory specialists from CNES, NASA Langley Research Center and NASA Johnson Space Center. This working group is tasked with developing and testing guidance algorithms, as well as cross-validating CNES and NASA flight simulators for the Mars atmospheric entry phase of this mission. The final result will be a recommendation to CNES on the algorithm to use, and an evaluation of the flight risks associated with the algorithm. This paper will describe the aerocapture phase of the MSR mission, the main principles of the guidance algorithms that are under development, the atmospheric entry simulators developed for the evaluations, the process for the evaluations, and preliminary results from the evaluations.

Fraysse, H.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Sulfur Oxidation and Contrail Precursor Chemistry

Sulfuric acid (H2SO4), formed in commercial aircraft operations via Fuel-S (right arrow) SO2 + SO3 (right arrow) H2SO4, plays an important role in affecting the global climate change through atmospheric chemical reactions and radiative forcing. Measurement of the sulfur oxidation rates is critical to the understanding of the contrail formation. The principle reaction pathway is SO2 + O + M (right arrow) SO3 + M. Although there are many measurements for the rates of this reaction, it has never been measured in the temperature and pressure regime available to aircraft operation. In this investigation, a series of experiments were performed behind the reflected shock waves in a shock tube. OH radicals were produced in lean, shock heated SO2/H2/O2/Ar mixtures. The reaction progress was followed using OH absorption spectroscopy at 310 nm. The data were analyzed with the aid of computer modeling/simulation. The mean value of the rate coefficients of R21 determined is k(sub 21,0)/[M]= 3.9 x 10(exp 15) cm(sup 6) per square mole per second at T = 960 - 1150 K and rho = 16-30 micromole per cubic centimeter with uncertainty limits of plus or minus 30%. A non-Arrhenius fit to our data together with all existing data gives k(sub 21,0)/[M] = 1.3 x 10(exp 24) T (exp -2.5) exp(-2350 K/T) cm(sup 6) per square mole per second at T = 300 - 2500 K with the same uncertainty limits given above. The calculated conversion of S(IV)(SO2) to S(VI) (SO3 + H2SO4) was about 2% in our experimental conditions.

DeWitt, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS2008

Magnetic Compensation for Second-Order Doppler Shift in LITS

The uncertainty in the frequency of a linear-ion-trap frequency standard (LITS) can be reduced substantially by use of a very small magnetic inhomogeneity tailored to compensate for the residual second-order Doppler shift. An effect associated with the relativistic time dilatation, one cause of the second-order Doppler shift, is ion motion that is attributable to the trapping radio-frequency (RF)electromagnetic field used to trap ions. The second-order Doppler shift is reduced by using a multi-pole trap; however it is still the largest source of systematic frequency shift in the latest generation of LITSs, which are among the most stable clocks in the world. The present compensation scheme reduces the frequency instability of the affected LITS to about a tenth of its previous value. The basic principles of prior generation LITSs were discussed in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles. Below are recapitulated only those items of basic information necessary to place the present development in context. A LITS includes a microwave local oscillator, the frequency of which is stabilized by comparison with the frequency of the ground state hyperfine transition of 199Hg+ ions. The comparison involves a combination of optical and microwave excitation and interrogation of the ions in a linear ion trap in the presence of a nominally uniform magnetic field. In the current version of the LITS, there are two connected traps (see figure): (1) a quadrupole trap wherein the optical excitation and measurement take place and (2) a 12-pole trap (denoted the resonance trap), wherein the microwave interrogation takes place. The ions are initially loaded into the quadrupole trap and are thereafter shuttled between the two traps. Shuttling ions into the resonance trap allows sensitive microwave interrogation to take place well away from loading interference. The axial magnetic field for the resonance trap is generated by an electric current in a finely wound wire coil surrounded by magnetic shields. In the quadrupole and 12-pole traps, the potentials are produced by RF voltages applied to even numbers (4 and 12, respectively) of parallel rods equally spaced around a circle. The polarity of the voltage on each rod is opposite that of the voltage on the adjacent rod. As a result, the amplitude of the RF trapping field is zero along the centerline and increases, with radius, to a maximum value near the rods.

Burt, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1991

How far we are from the complete knowledge: Complexity of knowledge acquisition in Dempster-Shafer approach

When a knowledge base represents the experts' uncertainty, then it is reasonable to ask how far we are from the complete knowledge, that is, how many more questions do we have to ask (to these experts, to nature by means of experimenting, etc) in order to attain the complete knowledge. Of course, since we do not know what the real world is, we cannot get the precise number of questions from the very beginning: it is quite possible, for example, that we ask the right question first and thus guess the real state of the world after the first question. So we have to estimate this number and use this estimate as a natural measure of completeness for a given knowledge base. We give such estimates for Dempster-Shafer formalism. Namely, we show that this average number of questions can be obtained by solving a simple mathematical optimization problem. In principle this characteristic is not always sufficient to express the fact that sometimes we have more knowledge. For example, it has the same value if we have an event with two possible outcomes and nothing else is known, and if there is an additional knowledge that the probability of every outcome is 0.5. We'll show that from the practical viewpoint this is not a problem, because the difference between the necessary number of questions in both cases is practically negligible.

Chokr, Bassam A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The NIST Internet time service

We will describe the NIST Network Time Service which provides time and frequency information over the Internet. Our first time server is located in Boulder, Colorado, a second backup server is under construction there, and we plan to install a third server on the East Coast later this year. The servers are synchronized to UTC(NIST) with an uncertainty of about 0.8 ms RMS and they will respond to time requests from any client on the Internet in several different formats including the DAYTIME, TIME and NTP protocols. The DAYTIME and TIME protocols are the easiest to use and are suitable for providing time to PC's and other small computers. In addition to UTC(NIST), the DAYTIME message provides advance notice of leap seconds and of the transitions to and from Daylight Saving Time. The Daylight Saving Time notice is based on the US transition dates of the first Sunday in April and the last one in October. The NTP is a more complex protocol that is suitable for larger machines; it is normally run as a 'daemon' process in the background and can keep the time of the client to within a few milliseconds of UTC(NIST). We will describe the operating principles of various kinds of client software ranging from a simple program that queries the server once and sets the local clock to more complex 'daemon' processes (such as NTP) that continuously correct the time of the local clock based on periodic calibrations.

Levine, Judah↗

NASA NTRS1998

Transition in Turbine Flows

We have further developed our capabilities to analyze transition in turbine boundary layers from first principles by integrating the nonlinear parabolized stability equations (PSE) with improved initial and boundary conditions. With modified iteration schemes, we are able to proceed deeper into the transition region where skin friction coefficient and heat transfer coefficient significantly increase. Initial and boundary conditions at elevated turbulence levels can be derived by receptivity analysis. Test runs for ERCOFTAC test case T3A at 2.4\% turbulence level provide results in good agreement with the experimental data. The sharper minimum of the skin coefficient also shown by DNS results is likely due to the missing intermittency. The method has been applied to various experimentally studied turbine blades (UTRC, VKI, Zierke, Langston, Hippensteele, and others). The PSE results, though physically reasonable, do not agree as well as expected with the experimental findings. We have, therefore, performed an extensive search for the reasons of the seemingly systematic deviations. A first source of uncertainty has been found in the often insufficient documentation of the experiments (e.g. on blockage by end-wall boundary layers). However, variation of the relevant parameters does not lead to more satisfactory agreement. A second reason has been found in the "standard procedure" which considers a 2D flow at midspan and uses a panel code and subsequent boundary-layer code to obtain the laminar basic flow for the transition analysis. Comparison with the pressure distribution obtained with a 3D design code (RVC3D) shows significant three-dimensionality of the flow (e.g. in the UTRC experiments). The spanwise variation has been neglected in our original PSE code. To overcome this problem, we have developed the PSE/3D for fully 3D boundary layers to account for streamwise and spanwise variations. Since the design code does not provide the boundary-layer flow with sufficient resolution, we have generated the Euler solution and employed a 3D boundary-layer code to obtain the viscous basic flow. Although only the linear stability level of PSE/3D has been implemented so far, the discrepancies with the experiments change but do not disappear. We still find deviations between the computed and experimental variations of C(sub f), and St along the blade for laminar flow. The main reason can be seen by comparing the solution of the boundary-layer code with the viscous results of the design code. The conventional boundary-layer solution exhibits an asymptotic behavior appropriate in external aerodynamics but does not match the steep gradients of the inviscid flow through the passage and consequently provides biased results for C(sub f), and St. An attempt is currently being made to correct this deficiency. Before attempting to perform the transition analysis for the viscous flow provided by the design code, we have analyzed the implementation and "best possible" results. Code and results exhibit flaws that may negatively affect the design and are intolerable for transition analysis. Therefore, we have decided to develop a new code to obtain a reliable basis for stability and transition studies. We expect to report improved results by the time of the meeting.

Herbert, Thorwald↗

NASA NTRS2019

Potential Improvements to the Nuclear Safety and Launch Approval Process for Nuclear Reactors Utilized for Space Power and Propulsion Applications

This study examines potential improvements that could be made to the nuclear safety and launch approval process for fission reactors to reduce the associated uncertainties in cost and schedule while continuing to ensure public safety and environmental protection. It concentrates on the launch approval and mission safety of fission power and propulsion applications of nuclear energy. Improvements to the launch approval process for radioisotope power systems (RPSs) are being considered elsewhere but are acknowledged throughout the report. The study considered technical, process, and organizational improvements to the launch approval processes. The study exclusively evaluated reactors that would not be started up prior to achieving a “sufficiently high orbit,” per United Nations (UN) Resolution 47/68.Potential criticality accidents were considered that could occur during a launch failure or abort or during reentry. Numerous scenarios were examined that might involve one or more Earth flybys as well as potential transportation missions that could intentionally return an active, or previously active fission reactor to Earth orbit. The Study Group was guided in its deliberations according to a number of fundamental principles. These included the paramount importance of adequate and appropriate levels of public safety and environmental protection as well as the importance of the inclusion of independent scientific, engineering, and safety reviews of the applications and proposals as a critical part of the process. Also considered was the need for the development of launch approval processes that might be different, depending upon the source of the application for launch approval, whether it be derived as a governmental launch, a commercial launch, or a hybrid/combination of the two. It is clear that all launches of nuclear reactors into space should have similar safety requirements; however, the safety review effort and the details of the analysis that are required should be commensurate with the potential hazards and the actual risk, which may differ based on the reactor design and its intended purpose. Finally, the study aimed at ensuring that whatever processes and procedures are developed should maximize the sufficiency, simplicity, and transparency of the processes. The Study Group reached five Conclusions and makes thirteen Recommendations. The Conclusions and Recommendations presented here are extensions of those presented previously in other studies. This report attempts to add specificity to the actions that need to be taken in order to move forward with successful space fission reactor programs. Without action to address the perceived and real problems in the launch approval process, designers and mission managers will be reluctant to commit the resources necessary to make space fission reactors a reality.

Camp, Allen↗

NASA NTRS1992

Magellan stereo images and Venusian geology

Areas of Venus imaged by Magellan radar with multiple viewing conditions provide unique data that will contribute to the solution of venusian geologic problems and provide a basis for quantitative comparison of venusian landforms with those on other planetary bodies. Three sets of images with different viewing conditions have been acquired: (1) left-looking with variable incidence angles (cycle 1 profile), (2) right-looking with nearly constant incidence angles (cycle 2 profile), and (3) left-looking with variable incidence angles that are almost always smaller than those in (1) (cycle 3 profiles). The unique data provided by paired images of the same scene with different incidence angles arises from image displacements caused by the relief of individual landforms at scales comparable to the ground-range and azimuth resolutions of the images. There are two aspects of the data: (1) Stereopsis achieved by simultaneous viewing of paired left-looking images of the same scene permits three-dimensional perception and interpretation of the morphologies of landforms at resolutions much finer than the altimetry footprints. (2) Measurements of differences of image displacements (parallax) on paired images with known imaging geometries provide quantitative estimates of the relief and shapes of landforms. The potential scientific contributions of the data can be grouped into two interrelated classes: (A) geologic mapping, analysis, and interpretation and (B) topical studies that involve topographic measurements. Stereopsis, without quantitative measurements, enhances geologic mapping, analysis, and interpretation of the rock units of Venus to a degree that cannot be overestimated. In geologic mapping, assemblages of landforms, assessments of backscatter and variations in backscatter, and fine-scale topography are used to define and characterize geologic map units that represent laterally continuous deposits or rock units. Stereopsis adds the important dimension of local relief for characterization of geologic units at a scale that is not possible with Magellan altimetry or products derived from the altimetry. Relative ages of the geologic units are determined using the well-known principles of superposition and intersection. Here, the perception of relief is invaluable because superposition relations among the geological units are more readily and clearly established. The recognition of folds, faults, and fault systems, regardless of their orientations, is facilitated with stereopsis so that sequences of deformation of the geologic units can be determined and structural analyses vastly improved. Shapes of landforms are readily perceived so that they can be properly interpreted. The end result of the mapping, analyses, and interpretations is a geologic history of Venus that includes the sequences of formation and deformation of various geologic units. Measurements of relief at the finest scale possible are necessary for numerous topical studies. Standard altimetry will provide the necessary information on the relief of most large landforms, but it tends to underestimate the relief of small landforms and distorts their shapes. Although special processing of the altimeter echoes improves the estimates of the relief and shapes of some landforms, there are uncertainties in the interpretations of the echoes. Examples of topical studies requiring measurements of relief are given.

Moore, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Towards Robust Designs Via Multiple-Objective Optimization Methods

Fabricating and operating complex systems involves dealing with uncertainty in the relevant variables. In the case of aircraft, flow conditions are subject to change during operation. Efficiency and engine noise may be different from the expected values because of manufacturing tolerances and normal wear and tear. Engine components may have a shorter life than expected because of manufacturing tolerances. In spite of the important effect of operating- and manufacturing-uncertainty on the performance and expected life of the component or system, traditional aerodynamic shape optimization has focused on obtaining the best design given a set of deterministic flow conditions. Clearly it is important to both maintain near-optimal performance levels at off-design operating conditions, and, ensure that performance does not degrade appreciably when the component shape differs from the optimal shape due to manufacturing tolerances and normal wear and tear. These requirements naturally lead to the idea of robust optimal design wherein the concept of robustness to various perturbations is built into the design optimization procedure. The basic ideas involved in robust optimal design will be included in this lecture. The imposition of the additional requirement of robustness results in a multiple-objective optimization problem requiring appropriate solution procedures. Typically the costs associated with multiple-objective optimization are substantial. Therefore efficient multiple-objective optimization procedures are crucial to the rapid deployment of the principles of robust design in industry. Hence the companion set of lecture notes (Single- and Multiple-Objective Optimization with Differential Evolution and Neural Networks ) deals with methodology for solving multiple-objective Optimization problems efficiently, reliably and with little user intervention. Applications of the methodologies presented in the companion lecture to robust design will be included here. The evolutionary method (DE) is first used to solve a relatively difficult problem in extended surface heat transfer wherein optimal fin geometries are obtained for different safe operating base temperatures. The objective of maximizing the safe operating base temperature range is in direct conflict with the objective of maximizing fin heat transfer. This problem is a good example of achieving robustness in the context of changing operating conditions. The evolutionary method is then used to design a turbine airfoil; the two objectives being reduced sensitivity of the pressure distribution to small changes in the airfoil shape and the maximization of the trailing edge wedge angle with the consequent increase in airfoil thickness and strength. This is a relevant example of achieving robustness to manufacturing tolerances and wear and tear in the presence of other objectives.

Man Mohan, Rai↗

NASA NTRS2010

Physics of Life: A Model for Non-Newtonian Properties of Living Systems

This innovation proposes the reconciliation of the evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics via the introduction of the First Principle for modeling behavior of living systems. The structure of the model is quantum-inspired: it acquires the topology of the Madelung equation in which the quantum potential is replaced with the information potential. As a result, the model captures the most fundamental property of life: the progressive evolution; i.e. the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The mathematical structure of the model can be obtained from the Newtonian equations of motion (representing the motor dynamics) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equation (representing the mental dynamics) via information forces. All these specific non-Newtonian properties equip the model with the levels of complexity that matches the complexity of life, and that makes the model applicable for description of behaviors of ecological, social, and economical systems. Rather than addressing the six aspects of life (organization, metabolism, growth, adaptation, response to stimuli, and reproduction), this work focuses only on biosignature ; i.e. the mechanical invariants of life, and in particular, the geometry and kinematics of behavior of living things. Living things obey the First Principles of Newtonian mechanics. One main objective of this model is to extend the First Principles of classical physics to include phenomenological behavior on living systems; to develop a new mathematical formalism within the framework of classical dynamics that would allow one to capture the specific properties of natural or artificial living systems such as formation of the collective mind based upon abstract images of the selves and non-selves; exploitation of this collective mind for communications and predictions of future expected characteristics of evolution; and for making decisions and implementing the corresponding corrections if the expected scenario is different from the originally planned one. This approach postulates that even a primitive living species possesses additional, non-Newtonian properties that are not included in the laws of Newtonian or statistical mechanics. These properties follow from a privileged ability of living systems to possess a self-image (a concept introduced in psychology) and to interact with it. The proposed mathematical system is based on the coupling of the classical dynamical system representing the motor dynamics with the corresponding Liouville equation describing the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of the probability density and representing the mental dynamics. The coupling is implemented by the information-based supervising forces that can be associated with self-awareness. These forces fundamentally change the pattern of the probability evolution, and therefore, lead to a major departure of the behavior of living systems from the patterns of both Newtonian and statistical mechanics. This innovation is meant to capture the signature of life based only on observable behavior, not on any biochemistry. This will not prevent the use of this model for developing artificial living systems, as well as for studying some general properties of behavior of natural, living systems.

Zak, Michail↗

NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation and Validation of a High Spatial Resolution Satellite Soil Moisture Product over the Continental United States

The soil moisture (SM) data retrieved from the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) satellite are available at a 9 km grid spacing since April 2015. This product can provide valuable information for research and applications in hydrology and other related fields. However, the resolution may be too coarse for applications at catchment or field scale. In this study, an established downscaling methodology, which had a major modification regarding its application on the SMAP 33 km domain, was implemented to develop a 1 km soil moisture product based on the SMAP 9 km data. The algorithm proposed here is based on the thermal inertia principle and developed by modeling the relationship between surface temperature difference and SM for different Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) classes. The model functions were established and tuned using data from the NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and remotely sensed VISible/InfRared (VIS/IR) reflectance data from Long Term Data Record (LTDR) AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) for the growing season months of April-September 1981–2018. These were then implemented using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data over the Continental United States (CONUS) domain. Validation activities were carried out using in situ measurements distributed through the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN). The validation results computed using the 1 km SM data showed that the R2, unbiased RMSE (root mean square error) and bias were improved relative to the 9 km SMAP product by 0.045, 0.018m3/m3 and 0.001m3/m3, respectively. The 1 km SM also exhibited a strong time-series autocorrelation. Further accuracy assessment analyses indicated that precipitation might contribute to the uncertainties in both the 9 km SMAP and 1 km downscaled SMAP SM products.

SMAP↗

NASA NTRS1992

Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

Whalen, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS1991

Numerical prediction of turbulent oscillating flow and associated heat transfer

A crucial point for further development of engines is the optimization of its heat exchangers which operate under oscillatory flow conditions. It has been found that the most important thermodynamic uncertainties in the Stirling engine designs for space power are in the heat transfer between gas and metal in all engine components and in the pressure drop across the heat exchanger components. So far, performance codes cannot predict the power output of a Stirling engine reasonably enough if used for a wide variety of engines. Thus, there is a strong need for better performance codes. However, a performance code is not concerned with the details of the flow. This information must be provided externally. While analytical relationships exist for laminar oscillating flow, there has been hardly any information about transitional and turbulent oscillating flow, which could be introduced into the performance codes. In 1986, a survey by Seume and Simon revealed that most Stirling engine heat exchangers operate in the transitional and turbulent regime. Consequently, research has since focused on the unresolved issue of transitional and turbulent oscillating flow and heat transfer. Since 1988, the University of Minnesota oscillating flow facility has obtained experimental data about transitional and turbulent oscillating flow. However, since the experiments in this field are extremely difficult, lengthy, and expensive, it is advantageous to numerically simulate the flow and heat transfer accurately from first principles. Work done at the University of Minnesota on the development of such a numerical simulation is summarized.

Koehler, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS2024

NASA Risk Management Handbook: Version 2.0, Part 1

The purpose of this handbook is to provide an in-depth reference for the practice of risk management in NASA, updating the guidance offered in its original version, NASA/SP-2011-3422 (November 2011), and closely aligning the updated guidance with the current NASA Procedural Requirements for Agency Risk Management, NPR 8000.4, and the parent NASA Policy Directive for NASA Governance and Strategic Management, NPD 1000.0. NPD 1000.0 introduces with emphasis the concept of “Risk Leadership,” making it a fundamental tenet and pillar of the risk management culture that it advocates for the Agency. NPR 8000.4 applies this concept and establishes Risk Management (RM) requirements for the Agency as an integrated enterprise, as well as the RM requirements for portfolio elements within the enterprise. Such elements include the various programs and projects that contribute to the Agency’s objectives and the various institutional activities carried out by entities that contribute to mission support. The present version of the handbook also emphasizes the integration of risk management processes across activity and project life cycles and their coordination and interaction with day-to-day programmatic and organizational functions. Areas of application of risk assessment and management that were not covered with specific guidance in the preceding version are addressed in this version with in-depth examples. The handbook is structured into two parts, whose chapters are in turn organized in a sequential order intended to facilitate a gradual and progressive introduction of the reader to risk management principles and practices. Part 1 of the handbook is dedicated to the introduction of the basic foundations of the NASA integrated risk management framework, the related fundamental risk concepts, the description of the risk management and decision processes that are to be implemented within the framework, the discussion of the risk assessment techniques that should be utilized in support of such processes, and the management and organizational interactions and interfaces that should be enabled to implement an effective integration of risk management activities within the Agency. Part 2 provides self-contained, end-to-end examples of application of the processes and techniques introduced in Part 1, in the context of both programmatic (i.e., project and/or mission related) and institutional activities.

Uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Differences in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Response to Changes in Chlorine and Temperature as Computed Using CCMVal Models

Projections of future ozone levels are made using models that couple a general circulation model with a representation of atmospheric photochemical processes, allowing interactions among photochemical processes, radiation, and dynamics. Such models are known as chemistry and climate models (CCMs). Although developed from common principles and subject to the same boundary conditions, simulated ozone time series vary for projections of changes in ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases. In the upper stratosphere photochemical processes control ozone level, and ozone increases as ODSs decrease and temperature decreases due to greenhouse gas increase. Simulations agree broadly but there are quantitative differences in the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine and to temperature. We obtain insight into these differences in sensitivity by examining the relationship between the upper stratosphere annual cycle of ozone and temperature as produced by a suite of models. All simulations conform to expectation in that ozone is less sensitive to temperature when chlorine levels are highest because chlorine catalyzed loss is nearly independent of temperature. Differences in sensitivity are traced to differences in simulated temperature, ozone and reactive nitrogen when chlorine levels are close to background. This work shows that differences in the importance of specific processes underlie differences in simulated sensitivity of ozone to composition change. This suggests a) the multi-model mean is not a best estimate of the sensitivity of upper ozone to changes in ODSs and temperature; b) the spread of values is not an appropriate measure of uncertainty.

Douglass, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS2024

NASA Risk Management Handbook: Version 2.0, Part 2

The purpose of this handbook is to provide an in-depth reference for the practice of risk management in NASA, updating the guidance offered in its original version, NASA/SP-2011-3422 (November 2011), and closely aligning the updated guidance with the current NASA Procedural Requirements for Agency Risk Management, NPR 8000.4, and the parent NASA Policy Directive for NASA Governance and Strategic Management, NPD 1000.0 (January 2020). NPD 1000.0 introduces with emphasis the concept of “Risk Leadership,” making it a fundamental tenet and pillar of the risk management culture that it advocates for the Agency. NPR 8000.4 applies this concept and establishes Risk Management (RM) requirements for the Agency as an integrated enterprise, as well as the RM requirements for portfolio elements within the enterprise. Such elements include the various programs and projects that contribute to the Agency’s objectives and the various institutional activities carried out by entities that contribute to mission support. The present version of the handbook also emphasizes the integration of risk management processes across activity and project life cycles and their coordination and interaction with day-to-day programmatic and organizational functions. Areas of application of risk assessment and management that were not covered with specific guidance in the preceding version are addressed in this version with in-depth examples. The handbook is structured into two parts, whose chapters are in turn organized in a sequential order intended to facilitate a gradual and progressive introduction of the reader to risk management principles and practices. Part 1 of the handbook is dedicated to the introduction of the basic foundations of the NASA integrated risk management framework, the related fundamental risk concepts, the description of the risk management and decision processes that are to be implemented within the framework, the discussion of the risk assessment techniques that should be utilized in support of such processes, and the management and organizational interactions and interfaces that should be enabled to implement an effective integration of risk management activities within the Agency. Part 2 provides self-contained, end-to-end examples of application of the processes and techniques introduced in Part 1, in the context of both programmatic (i.e., project and/or mission related) and institutional activities.

Risk Leadership↗

NASA NTRS1993

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗

NASA NTRS2000

Measurements and Modeling of Aerosol Absorption and Single Scattering Albedo at Ambient Relative Hum

Uncertainties in the aerosol single scattering albedo have been identified to be an important source of errors in current large-scale model estimates of the direct aerosol radiative forcing of climate. A number of investigators have obtained estimates of the single scattering albedo from a variety of remote sensing and in situ measurements during aerosol field experiments. During the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX, 1996) for example, estimates of the aerosol single scattering albedo were obtained (1) as a best-fit parameter in comparing radiative flux changes measured by airborne pyranometer to those computed from independently measured aerosol properties; (2) from estimates of the aerosol complex index of refraction derived using a combination of airborne sunphotometer, lidar backscatter and in situ size distribution measurements; and (3) from airborne measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption using nephelometers and absorption photometers. In this paper, we briefly compare the results of the latter two methods for two TARFOX case studies, since those techniques provide height-resolved information about the aerosol single scattering albedo. Estimates of the aerosol single scattering albedo from nephelometer and absorption photometer measurements require knowledge of the scattering and absorption humidification (i.e., the increase in these properties in response to an increase in ambient relative humidity), since both measurements are usually carried out at a relative humidity different from the ambient atmosphere. In principle, the scattering humidification factor can be measured, but there is currently no technique widely available to measure the absorption of an aerosol sample as a function of relative humidity. Frequently, for lack of better knowledge, the absorption humidification is assumed to be unity (meaning that there is no change in aerosol absorption due to an increase in ambient relative humidity). This assumption then enters the estimate of the single scattering albedo at ambient relative humidity. To investigate the validity of this assumption we have carried out modeling studies of the absorption humidification factor, assuming that the aerosols contain an insoluble soot core and a coating which determines its hygroscopic growth behavior. The aerosol optical properties are then computed on the basis of the shell/core particle morphology using a Mie-code for concentric shells. From basic physical principles, it is conceivable that aerosol absorption increases when an atmospheric aerosol particle collects a non-absorbing shell, since the soot core is then exposed to an increased (focused) electric field strength. Indeed, our preliminary modeling studies show that the absorption of an atmospheric aerosol particle composed of a soot core and an aqueous sulfuric acid shell may increase by a factor of 50% due to a change in ambient relative humidity from 30 to 95%. We will show how this increased absorption is a function of the initial particle size and soot mass fraction.

Redemann, J.↗