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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Probing the consistency of cosmological contours for supernova cosmology

As the scale of cosmological surveys increases, so does the complexity in the analyses. This complexity can often make it difficult to derive the underlying principles, necessitating statistically rigorous testing to ensure the results of an analysis are consistent and reasonable. This is particularly important in multi-probe cosmological analyses like those used in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time, where accurate uncertainties are vital. In this paper, we present a statistically rigorous method to test the consistency of contours produced in these analyses and apply this method to the Pippin cosmological pipeline used for type Ia supernova cosmology with the DES. We make use of the Neyman construction, a frequentist methodology that leverages extensive simulations to calculate confidence intervals, to perform this consistency check. A true Neyman construction is too computationally expensive for supernova cosmology, so we develop a method for approximating a Neyman construction with far fewer simulations. We find that for a simulated dataset, the 68% contour reported by the Pippin pipeline and the 68% confidence region produced by our approximate Neyman construction differ by less than a percent near the input cosmology; however, they show more significant differences far from the input cosmology, with a maximal difference of 0.05 in $Ω$ M and 0.07 in w. In conclusion, this divergence is most impactful for analyses of cosmological tensions, but its impact is mitigated when combining supernovae with other cross-cutting cosmological probes, such as the cosmic microwave background.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward More Actionable Flood‐Risk Information

Abstract The increasingly urgent need to develop knowledge and practices to manage flood risks drives innovative information design. However, experts often disagree about design practices. As a result, flood‐risk estimates can diverge, leading to different conclusions for decision‐making. Using examples of household‐scale fluvial (riverine) flood‐risk information in the United States, we assess design features and risk communication approaches that may lead to more actionable information for decision‐making. We argue that increased attention to uncertainty characterization and model diagnostics is a critical intermediate step for developing simpler approaches for designing flood‐risk information. Simpler frameworks are desirable because flood risks change over time, and simpler frameworks are less costly to update. Developing frameworks for large spatial domains require collaboration grounded in principles of open science. Finally, systematically evaluating how decision‐makers access and use information can provide new insights to guide risk communication and information design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and design of DC-link capacitor in cascaded H-bridge multilevel active front-end converter

Medium-voltage grid-tied systems often use a cascaded H-bridge multi-level active front-end. In this converter, dc link bus capacitors play an important role in stabilizing the converter and enabling both active and reactive power injections. The present work provides analytical expressions for the capacitor current, which are essential for optimizing system design (especially capacitor size vs. lifetime). Then, the expression is incorporated into the grid connected bidirectional power system model. Consequently, this work contributes to the guiding principles to choose accurate dc link capacitor ratings against grid-side power delivery requirements. DC-link capacitors come with an expiration date which is dependent on the operating power and voltage values. Lack of information about the lifetime of the dc-link capacitor creates uncertainty in the duration of online operation of the converter, thus increasing the probability of a contingency outage. The lifetime of the capacitor can range from only a few seconds of online operation of the station due to under-sizing, to a compromised quality of power flowing through other solid state devices which may not have been designed for the transients that are caused by over-sizing of the dc-link capacitor. A better estimate of the lifetime of these capacitors can help maximize usage and maintain scheduled outages more efficiently, without disruption in service.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving and Assessing the Quality of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning

Deep learning (DL) models have enjoyed increased attention in recent years because of their powerful predictive capabilities. While many successes have been achieved, standard deep learning methods suffer from a lack of uncertainty quantification (UQ). While the development of methods for producing UQ from DL models is an active area of current research, little attention has been given to the quality of the UQ produced by such methods. In order to deploy DL models to high-consequence applications, high-quality UQ is necessary. This report details the research and development conducted as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Sandia National Laboratories. The focus of this project is to develop a framework of methods and metrics for the principled assessment of UQ quality in DL models. This report presents an overview of UQ quality assessment in traditional statistical modeling and describes why this approach is difficult to apply in DL contexts. An assessment on relatively simple simulated data is presented to demonstrate that UQ quality can differ greatly between DL models trained on the same data. A method for simulating image data that can then be used for UQ quality assessment is described. A general method for simulating realistic data for the purpose of assessing a model’s UQ quality is also presented. A Bayesian uncertainty framework for understanding uncertainty and existing metrics is described. Research that came out of collaborations with two university partners are discussed along with a software toolkit that is currently being developed to implement the UQ quality assessment framework as well as serve as a general guide to incorporating UQ into DL applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging neural control variates for enhanced precision in lattice field theory

Results obtained with stochastic methods have an inherent uncertainty due to the finite number of samples that can be achieved in practice. In lattice QCD this problem is particularly salient in some observables like, for instance, observables involving one or more baryons and it is the main problem preventing the calculation of nuclear forces from first principles. The method of control variables has been used extensively in statistics and it amounts to computing the expectation value of the difference between the observable of interest and another observable whose average is known to be zero but is correlated with the observable of interest. Recently, control variates methods emerged as a promising solution in the context of lattice field theories. In our current study, instead of relying on an educated guess to determine the control variate, we utilize a neural network to parametrize this function. Using 1 + 1 dimensional scalar field theory as a testbed, we demonstrate that this neural network approach yields substantial improvements. Notably, our findings indicate that the neural network ansatz is particularly effective in the strong coupling regime. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Magnetic Field Determination for Run 1 of the Fermilab Muon $g-2$ Experiment

The muon $g-2$ experiment at Fermilab aims to measure the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $a_{\mu}$, to a precision of 140 parts per billion (ppb). The measurement will shed light on the current $>$3$\sigma$ deviation between Standard Model calculations and the previous measurement made at Brookhaven National Laboratory, either resolving the discrepancy or confirming it to $>$5$\sigma$. In the muon $g-2$ experiment, muons are stored in a magnetic storage ring and their decays are observed. In order to reach the precision goal, the magnetic field experienced by the muons must be known with an uncertainty of \SI{70}{ppb} or less. To this end, the magnetic field was shimmed to unprecedented homogeneity. Two measurement systems are used to track the evolution of the magnetic field. This dissertation describes the motivations for the $g-2$ experiment, gives a brief overview of the experimental principles, introduces the magnetic field measurement hardware, describes the magnetic field shimming process, and presents an analysis of the magnetic field tracking for data collected in spring 2018 during run 1 of the Fermilab muon $g-2$ experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Chemical Kinetic Modeling: Where We Succeed, Where We Struggle, and What Comes Next

Chemical kinetic modeling plays a foundational role in fields ranging from energy to environmental science, pharmaceuticals, and advanced materials. The past two decades have seen remarkable progress, particularly in modeling gas-phase reactions for thermochemical processes, leading to impactful industrial applications such as steam cracking and air quality management. However, new challenges are emerging. The successful development of systematic methodologies for the description of gas-phase kinetics opens the possibility to apply the same approach to the study of more challenging systems. Here, we review recent advances, including ab initio transition state theory-based master equation estimation of elementary rates, automated mechanism generation, machine-learning-assisted kinetics, and uncertainty quantification, and discuss the advances needed to apply the same methodological approach in areas such as heterogeneous catalysis, electrochemistry, liquid-phase and solid-state reactivity, and multiscale model integration. We advocate for the development of targeted tools, especially methods that go beyond empirical tuning toward first-principles-based predictions. We highlight the need for accessible software and AIaugmented workflows to democratize modeling for industry and academia alike. In this perspective, we call attention to not only what has worked but also what remains unsolved, advocating to avoid overemphasizing successes in scientific works at the expense of realism. The next decade should focus on predictive capability, physical accuracy, and community infrastructure (e.g., databases and services) to enable innovation across diverse fields. We argue that kinetic modeling, properly equipped, can accelerate discovery far beyond its traditional domains.

ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Glass Design Using Machine Learning Property Models with Prediction Uncertainties: Nuclear Waste Glass Formulation

The United States Department of Energy is responsible for managing the legacy nuclear waste stored in underground tanks at the Hanford Site. The waste will be separately vitrified as low-activity waste and high-level waste fractions. Waste glass formulation algorithms have been traditionally developed using partial quadratic mixture property-composition models. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to predict glass properties and discover new glass materials for nuclear waste vitrification, and these advancements can be utilized to improve waste glass composition design. In this proof-of-principle study, ML algorithms such as Gaussian process regression (GPR) were used to interpolate glass properties (e.g., viscosity, electrical conductivity, chemical durability). After selecting appropriate sets of GPR hyper-parameters for each property, an optimization program was developed to formulate glass compositions to maximize waste loading while simultaneously satisfying property within constraints. The results of the ML-based waste loadings and glass compositions were compared to those obtained using the traditional methods. Comparing to the previous glass design framework, the ML-based optimization methods offer improved glass designs and a streamlined approach to generation of optimally designed data and near real-time updates.

glass formulation, machine learning, constraints, ↗
DOE OSTI2025

SymbolFit: Automatic Parametric Modeling with Symbolic Regression

We introduce SymbolFit (API: https://github.com/hftsoi/symbolfit), a framework that automates parametric modeling by using symbolic regression to perform a machine-search for functions that fit the data while simultaneously providing uncertainty estimates in a single run. Traditionally, constructing a parametric model to accurately describe binned data has been a manual and iterative process, requiring an adequate functional form to be determined before the fit can be performed. The main challenge arises when the appropriate functional forms cannot be derived from first principles, especially when there is no underlying true closed-form function for the distribution. In this work, we develop a framework that automates and streamlines the process by utilizing symbolic regression, a machine learning technique that explores a vast space of candidate functions without requiring a predefined functional form because the functional form itself is treated as a trainable parameter, making the process far more efficient and effortless than traditional regression methods. We demonstrate the framework in high-energy physics experiments at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) using five real proton-proton collision datasets from new physics searches, including background modeling in resonance searches for high-mass dijet, trijet, paired-dijet, diphoton, and dimuon events. We show that our framework can flexibly and efficiently generate a wide range of candidate functions that fit a nontrivial distribution well using a simple fit configuration that varies only by random seed, and that the same fit configuration, which defines a vast function space, can also be applied to distributions of different shapes, whereas achieving a comparable result with traditional methods would have required extensive manual effort.

Tsoi, Ho Fung [Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deducing subnanometer cluster size and shape distributions of heterogeneous supported catalysts

Abstract Infrared (IR) spectra of adsorbate vibrational modes are sensitive to adsorbate/metal interactions, accurate, and easily obtainable in-situ or operando. While they are the gold standards for characterizing single-crystals and large nanoparticles, analogous spectra for highly dispersed heterogeneous catalysts consisting of single-atoms and ultra-small clusters are lacking. Here, we combine data-based approaches with physics-driven surrogate models to generate synthetic IR spectra from first-principles. We bypass the vast combinatorial space of clusters by determining viable, low-energy structures using machine-learned Hamiltonians, genetic algorithm optimization, and grand canonical Monte Carlo calculations. We obtain first-principles vibrations on this tractable ensemble and generate single-cluster primary spectra analogous to pure component gas-phase IR spectra. With such spectra as standards, we predict cluster size distributions from computational and experimental data, demonstrated in the case of CO adsorption on Pd/CeO 2 (111) catalysts, and quantify uncertainty using Bayesian Inference. We discuss extensions for characterizing complex materials towards closing the materials gap.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interplay between phonon downconversion efficiency, density of states at Fermi energy, and intrinsic energy resolution for microwave kinectic inductance detectors

Microwave Kinetic Inductance detectors (MKIDs) have been recognized as a powerful new tool for single photon detection. These highly multiplexed superconducting devices give timing and energy measurement for every detected photon. However, the full potential of MKID single photon spectroscopy has not been reached , the achieved energy resolution is lower than expected from first principles. Here, we study the efficiency in the phonon downconversion process following the absorption of energetic photons in MKIDs. Assuming previously published material properties, we measure an average downconversion efficiency for three TiN resonators is $\eta$=0.14. We discuss how this efficiency can impact the intrinsic energy resolution of MKID, and how any uncertainty in the unknown density of electron states at the Fermi energy directly affects the efficiency estimations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast and stable deep-learning predictions of material properties for solid solution alloys

We present a novel deep learning (DL) approach to produce highly accurate predictions of macroscopic physical properties of solid solution binary alloys and magnetic systems. The major idea is to make use of the correlations between different physical properties in alloy systems to improve the prediction accuracy of neural network (NN) models. We use multitasking NN models to simultaneously predict the total energy, charge density and magnetic moment. These physical properties mutually serve as constraints during the training of the multitasking NN, resulting in more reliable DL models because multiple physics properties are correctly learned by a single model. Two binary alloys, copper–gold (CuAu) and iron–platinum (FePt), were studied. Our results show that once the multitasking NN's are trained, they can estimate the material properties for a specific configuration hundreds of times faster than first-principles density functional theory calculations while retaining comparable accuracy. We used a simple measure based on the root-mean-squared errors to quantify the quality of the NN models, and found that the inclusion of charge density and magnetic moment as physical constraints leads to more stable models that exhibit improved accuracy and reduced uncertainty for the energy predictions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Safe Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Dynamics and Control

This tutorial paper focuses on safe physics-informed machine learning in the context of dynamics and control, providing a comprehensive overview of how to integrate physical models and safety guarantees. As machine learning techniques enhance the modeling and control of complex dynamical systems, ensuring safety and stability remains a critical challenge, especially in safety-critical applications like autonomous vehicles, robotics, medical decision-making, and energy systems. We explore various approaches for embedding and ensuring safety constraints, including structural priors, Lyapunov and Control Barrier Functions, predictive control, projections, and robust optimization techniques. Additionally, we delve into methods for uncertainty quantification and safety verification, including reachability analysis and neural network verification tools, which help validate that control policies remain within safe operating bounds even in uncertain environments. The paper includes illustrative examples demonstrating the implementation aspects of safe learning frameworks that combine the strengths of data-driven approaches with the rigor of physical principles, offering a path toward the safe control of complex dynamical systems.

Drgona, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Juno mission as a probe of long-range new physics

Orbits of celestial objects, especially the geocentric and heliocentric ones, have been well explored to constrain new long-range forces beyond the Standard Model (SM), often referred to as fifth forces. In this paper, for the first time, we apply the motion of a spacecraft around Jupiter to probe fifth forces that don’t violate the equivalence principle. The spacecraft is the Juno orbiter, and ten of its early orbits already allow a precise determination of the Jovian gravitational field. We use the shift in the precession angle as a proxy to test non-gravitational interactions between Juno and Jupiter. Requiring that the contribution from the fifth force does not exceed the uncertainty of the precession shift inferred from data, we find that a new parameter space with the mass of the fifth-force mediator around 10 −14 eV is excluded at 95% C.L.

new light particles↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-fidelity information fusion with concatenated neural networks

Recently, computational modeling has shifted towards the use of statistical inference, deep learning, and other data-driven modeling frameworks. Although this shift in modeling holds promise in many applications like design optimization and real-time control by lowering the computational burden, training deep learning models needs a huge amount of data. This big data is not always available for scientific problems and leads to poorly generalizable data-driven models. This gap can be furnished by leveraging information from physics-based models. Exploiting prior knowledge about the problem at hand, this study puts forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) approach to build more tailored, effective, and efficient surrogate models. For our analysis, without losing its generalizability and modularity, we focus on the development of predictive models for laminar and turbulent boundary layer flows. In particular, we combine the self-similarity solution and power-law velocity profile (low-fidelity models) with the noisy data obtained either from experiments or computational fluid dynamics simulations (high-fidelity models) through a concatenated neural network. We illustrate how the knowledge from these simplified models results in reducing uncertainties associated with deep learning models applied to boundary layer flow prediction problems. The proposed multi-fidelity information fusion framework produces physically consistent models that attempt to achieve better generalization than data-driven models obtained purely based on data. While we demonstrate our framework for a problem relevant to fluid mechanics, its workflow and principles can be adopted for many scientific problems where empirical, analytical, or simplified models are prevalent. In line with grand demands in novel PGML principles, this work builds a bridge between extensive physics-based theories and data-driven modeling paradigms and paves the way for using hybrid physics and machine learning modeling approaches for next-generation digital twin technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving key challenges in collider physics with foundation models

Foundation models are neural networks that are capable of simultaneously solving many problems. Large language foundation models like ChatGPT have revolutionized many aspects of daily life, but their impact for science is not yet clear. In this paper, we use a new foundation model for hadronic jets to solve three key challenges in collider physics. In particular, we show how experiments can (1) save significant computing power when developing reconstruction algorithms, (2) perform a complete uncertainty quantification for high-dimensional measurements, and (3) search for new physics with model agnostic methods using low-level inputs. In each case, there are significant computational or methodological challenges with current methods that limit the science potential of deep learning algorithms. By solving each problem, we take jet foundation models beyond proof-of-principle studies and into the toolkit of practitioners.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

MAPPER – A NOVEL CAPABILITY TO SUPPORT NUCLEAR MODEL VALIDATION AND MAPPING OF BIASES AND UNCERTAINTIES

This paper overviews the initial results of a new project at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory -- supported via an internal seed funding program -- focused on the development of a novel computational capability, called MAPPER, to support model validation. The MAPPER development aims to eliminate the need for empirical criteria, such as similarity indices, often employed to identify applicable experiments for given application conditions. To achieve that, MAPPER employs an information-theoretic-based approach, based on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence principle, to combine responses of available or to-be-built experiments with application responses of interest using a training set of samples generated using randomized execution of the experiments and the application high fidelity analysis models. These samples are condensed using reduced order modeling techniques in the form of a joint probability distribution function (PDF) connecting each application response of interest with a new effective experimental response. The initial focus of the MAPPER capability will be to support the confirmatory analysis required for criticality safety analysis of storage facilities which require k-eff biases to be known for safe operation. This paper reports some of the initial results obtained with MAPPER as applied to a set of critical experiments for which existing similarity-based methods have been shown to provide inaccurate estimates of the biases.

Mertyurek, Ugur↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-Electricity Based Renewable Fuels: Theory and Computation for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen

Dominated by photovoltaics and wind, current renewable energy sources generate mostly electricity, but 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels. Therefore, direct solar fuel generation would be a major breakthrough for the energy transition. Solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) is one of the very few potential routes towards scalable renewable fuels, but currently suffers from lack of an oxide working material that could optimally perform energy conversion within the thermodynamic boundary conditions. Theory and computation can contribute in two distinct ways, through materials search and discovery, but also by providing detailed mechanistic models for specific systems so to advance our understanding of possible design strategies. To enable high-throughput materials screening, we developed a defect graph neural network (dGNN) machine learning approach,[1] which accelerates the prediction of defect formation energies by replacing the tedious density functional theory (DFT) supercell calculations for all possible defect sites. This approach enables high-throughput database screening of oxides, which was integrated with thermodynamic modeling to extract the reduction entropies as additional selection criterion for STCH. Once potential candidate materials are identified, detailed models can guide materials design by predicting performance characteristics. One challenge is to quantitatively predict thermochemical equilibria at high concentrations when the redox active defects start to interact with each other, thereby impeding the formation of additional defects. Introducing a model for the free energy of defect interaction, parametrized on the basis of DFT data, we simulated the complete STCH redox cycle for (Sr,Ce)MnO3 alloys, achieving near-quantitative agreement with experimental data.[2] The analysis of these simulations reveals how defect interactions diminish the reduction entropy and H2 yield, suggesting to include these interactions in design considerations. Finally, we revisit the popular van't Hoff method for analyzing reduction enthalpies and entropies. This method is not ideal, as it involves a temperature-dependent convolution of gas-phase and solid-state entropies, causing uncertainties in the same order of magnitude as the physical quantities of interest. To avoid this problem, we suggest a simple alternative approach which can be applied to experimental and simulated data alike.

first-principles calculations↗