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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

How Climate and Data Quality Impact Photovoltaic Performance Loss Rate Estimations

Different data pipelines and statistical methods are applied to photovoltaic (PV) performance datasets to quantify the performance loss rate (PLR). Since the real values of PLR are unknown, a variety of unvalidated values are reported. As such, the PV industry commonly assumes PLR based on statistically extracted ranges from the literature. However, the accuracy and uncertainty of PLR depend on several parameters including seasonality, local climatic conditions, and the response of a particular PV technology. In addition, the specific data pipeline and statistical method used affect the accuracy and uncertainty. To provide insights, a framework of (≈200 million) synthetic simulations of PV performance datasets using data from different climates is developed. Time series with known PLR and data quality are synthesized, and large parametric studies are conducted to examine the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical approaches over the contiguous US, with an emphasis on the publicly available and “standardized” library, RdTools . In the results, it is confirmed that PLRs from RdTools are unbiased on average, but the accuracy and uncertainty of individual PLR estimates vary with climate zone, data quality, PV technology, and choice of analysis workflow. Best practices and improvement recommendations based on the findings of this study are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Predictive Attitude Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

In this paper, a new algorithm is developed for attitude estimation using Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. The new algorithm is based on a predictive filtering scheme designed for spacecraft without rate measuring devices. The major advantage of this new algorithm over traditional Kalman filter approaches is that the model error is not assumed to represented by an unbiased Gaussian noise process with known covariance, but instead is determined during the estimation process. This is achieved by simultaneously solving system optimality conditions and an output error constraint. This approach is well suited for GPS attitude estimation since some error sources that contribute to attitude inaccuracy, such as signal multipath, are known to be non-Gaussian processes. Also, the predictive filter scheme can use either GPS signals or vector observations or a combination of both for attitude estimation, so that performance characteristics can be maintained during periods of GPS attitude sensor outage. The performance of the new algorithm is tested using flight data from the REX-2 spacecraft. Results are shown using the predictive filter to estimate the attitude from both GPS signals and magnetometer measurements, and comparing that solution to a magnetometer-only based solution. Results using the new estimation algorithm indicate that GPS-based solutions are verified to within 2 degrees using the magnetometer cross-check for the REX-2 spacecraft. GPS attitude accuracy of better than 1 degree is expected per axis, but cannot be reliably proven due to inaccuracies in the magnetic field model.

Crassidis, John L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: calibration of lens sample redshift distributions using clustering redshifts with BOSS/eBOSS

ABSTRACT We present clustering redshift measurements for Dark Energy Survey (DES) lens sample galaxies used in weak gravitational lensing and galaxy clustering studies. To perform these measurements, we cross-correlate with spectroscopic galaxies from the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Survey (BOSS) and its extension, eBOSS. We validate our methodology in simulations, including a new technique to calibrate systematic errors that result from the galaxy clustering bias, and we find that our method is generally unbiased in calibrating the mean redshift. We apply our method to the data, and estimate the redshift distribution for 11 different photometrically selected bins. We find general agreement between clustering redshift and photometric redshift estimates, with differences on the inferred mean redshift found to be below |Δz| = 0.01 in most of the bins. We also test a method to calibrate a width parameter for redshift distributions, which we found necessary to use for some of our samples. Our typical uncertainties on the mean redshift ranged from 0.003 to 0.008, while our uncertainties on the width ranged from 4 to 9 per cent. We discuss how these results calibrate the photometric redshift distributions used in companion papers for DES Year 3 results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2018

The SMAP Level-4 ECO Project: Improving Terrestrial Flux Estimates Through Coupled Hydrology-Vegetation Data Assimilation

Simulations of hydrologic and vegetation states as well as water, energy and carbon fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere are crucial for a wide range of applications, including agricultural advisories, forecasts of (short-term) atmospheric behavior and seasonal weather predictions including forecasts of extreme events, such as heatwaves or droughts. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Eco-Hydrology (L4-ECO) project aims to improve modeled estimates of the terrestrial water, energy and carbon fluxes and states by developing a fully-coupled hydrology-vegetation data assimilation system. This system is developed around the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Catchment-CN land surface model, which combines land hydrology and energy balance components of the GEOS Catchment model with dynamic vegetation components of the Community Land Model version 4. Catchment-CN fully couples the terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, allowing feedbacks from the land hydrology to the biosphere and vice versa.Here, we implement a calibration of the Catchment-CN vegetation parameterization against observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to improve the model's standalone skill. Later, the DA algorithm used to produce the SMAP L4 soil moisture product will be adapted to Catchment-CN to assimilate SMAP brightness temperatures and inform the model's land hydrology component. Finally, the DA system will be further extended to assimilate MODIS FPAR observations in order to constrain the model's dynamic vegetation component.In this presentation, we demonstrate that the Catchment-CN parameter calibration leads to more realistic vegetation simulations and reduces the root mean squared error between modeled and observed vegetation states across the model's various plant functional types. We also show that the assimilation of SMAP observations is able to improve the average correlation, bias and unbiased RMSE between the modeled surface and root zone soil moisture estimates, and ground observations from the SMAP core validation sites.

Kolassa, Jana↗
NASA NTRS2018

The SMAP Level-4 ECO Product - Phase 1: Improving Vegetation Simulations Through Observation-Driven Parameter Estimation

Simulations of hydrological fields as well as water, energy and carbon fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere are crucial for a wide range of applications, including agricultural advisories, forecasts of (short-term) atmospheric behavior and seasonal weather predictions including forecasts of extreme events, such as heatwaves or droughts. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 (L4) Eco-Hydrology (ECO) project aims to improve modeled estimates of the terrestrial water, energy and carbon fluxes and states by developing a fully-coupled hydrology-vegetation data assimilation (DA) algorithm. The DA system is developed for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) Catchment-CN land surface model, which combines land hydrology components of the GEOS-5 Catchment model with dynamic vegetation components of the Community Land Model version 4. Catchment-CN fully couples the terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, allowing feedbacks from the land hydrology to the biosphere and vice versa. For SMAP L4 ECO a calibration of the Catchment-CN vegetation parameterization against observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is implemented to improve the model's standalone skill. Next, the DA algorithm used to produce the SMAP L4 soil moisture product is adapted to Catchment-CN to assimilate SMAP brightness temperatures and inform the model's land hydrology component. The DA system is further extended to assimilate MODIS FPAR observations in order to constrain the model's dynamic vegetation component. In this presentation, we demonstrate that the Catchment-CN parameter calibration leads to more realistic vegetation simulations and reduces the root mean squared error between modeled and observed vegetation states across the model's various plant functional types. We also show that the assimilation of SMAP observations is able to improve the average correlation, bias and unbiased RMSE between the modeled surface and root zone soil moisture estimates, and ground observations from the SMAP core validation sites.

Kolassa, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimation With Range Dependent Sensor Model

This paper focuses on the improvement of target tracking accuracy taking into account the sensor’s reading degradation as the relative range increases. The approach is based on the assumption that range measurement error depends on the actual range. Specifically, we model the measurement error as a proportional to the actual range term plus a zero-mean, Gaussian distributed, and uncorrelated process. We present two approaches to tracking a target with constant velocity model. The first approach uses Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) framework to estimate target's states and the unknown proportionality coefficient with linearization on the observation model on the predicted states at each time step. The second one uses a measurement conversion method to estimate the target's scaled by the unknown constant term states, which is shown to be unbiased. This conversion results in linear state and observation models, hence the standard Kalman filter can be applied. The actual target state is computed by application of back scaling with the estimate of unknown scale factor. We evaluate the approaches in desktop simulations.

Target tracking↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity

Using climate model ensembles containing members that exhibit very high climate sensitivities to increasing CO 2 concentrations can result in biased projections. Various methods have been proposed to ameliorate this ‘hot model’ problem, such as model emulators or model culling. Here, we utilize Bayesian Model Averaging as a framework to address this problem without resorting to outright rejection of models from the ensemble. Taking advantage of multiple lines of evidence used to construct the best estimate of the earth’s climate sensitivity, the Bayesian Model Averaging framework produces an unbiased posterior probability distribution of model weights. The updated multi-model ensemble projects end-of-century global mean surface temperature increases of 2 °C for a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and 5 °C for a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These estimates are lower than those produced using a simple multi-model mean for the CMIP6 ensemble. The results are also similar to results from a model culling approach, but retain some weight on low-probability models, allowing for consideration of the possibility that the true value could lie at the extremes of the assessed distribution. Our results showcase Bayesian Model Averaging as a path forward to project future climate change that is commensurate with the available scientific evidence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Estimation of Snow Mass Information via Assimilation of C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Backscatter Observations Into an Advanced and Surface Model

This study assimilated Sentinel-1 C-band backscatter observations over snow-covered terrain into the Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model using support vector machine (SVM) regression and an ensemble Kalman filter to improve the modeled terrestrial snow mass estimates. The data assimilation (DA) experiment was conducted across Western Colorado from September 2016 to August 2017. As part of the DA experiments, the impact of a rule-based update was evaluated by comparing snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates via DA (with [ DAv1 ] and without [ DAv2 ] the rule-based update) against SNOTEL SWE measurements. Results confirmed that rule-based update helped minimize SVM controllability issues, and in turn, improved the accuracy of SWE estimates relative to both open loop (OL) and DAv2 . Comparison of SWE estimates from Sentinel-1 DAv1 against SNOTEL SWE revealed that 75% of stations showed improvements in bias and correlation coefficient relative to the OL. Assimilated SWE estimates also showed statistical improvements during both the snow accumulation and snow ablation periods. However, unbiased root mean square error showed a slight increase during the snow ablation period due to the large variability in the electromagnetic response of C-band backscatter over deep and/or wet snow. Improvement of the SWE estimates also resulted in improving river discharge estimates compared to in situ measurements. River discharge using Sentinel-1 DAv1 improved the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency at all available stations. These results suggest that physically constrained SVM can serve as an efficient observation operator for snow mass DA through explicit consideration of the first-order C-band scattering mechanisms over different terrestrial snow conditions.

Jongmin Park↗
DOE OSTI2022

BASS. XXIX. The Near-infrared View of the Broad-line Region (BLR): The Effects of Obscuration in BLR Characterization

Virial black hole (BH) mass (M BH ) determination directly involves knowing the broad-line region (BLR) clouds' velocity distribution, their distance from the central supermassive BH (R BLR ), and the virial factor (f). Understanding whether biases arise in M BH estimation with increasing obscuration is possible only by studying a large (N > 100) statistical sample of obscuration-unbiased (hard) X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the rest-frame near-infrared (0.8–2.5 μm) since it penetrates deeper into the BLR than the optical. We present a detailed analysis of 65 local Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) selected Seyfert galaxies observed with Magellan/FIRE. Adding these to the near-infrared BAT AGN spectroscopic survey database, we study a total of 314 unique near-infrared spectra. While the FWHMs of Hα and near-infrared broad lines (He i, Paβ, Paα) remain unbiased to either BLR extinction or X-ray obscuration, the Hα broad-line luminosity is suppressed when N H ≳ 10 21 cm –2 , systematically underestimating M BH by 0.23–0.46 dex. Near-infrared line luminosities should be preferred to Hα until N H < 10 22 cm –2 , while at higher obscuration a less-biased R BLR proxy should be adopted. We estimate f for Seyfert 1 and 2 using two obscuration-unbiased M BH measurements, i.e., the stellar velocity dispersion and a BH mass prescription based on near-infrared and X-ray, and find that the virial factors do not depend on the redshift or obscuration, but some broad lines show a mild anticorrelation with M BH . Furthermore, our results show the critical impact obscuration can have on BLR characterization and the importance of the near-infrared and X-rays for a less-biased view of the BLR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

The environments of double radiogalaxies

Discussed here are simple methods by which the densities and pressures of the gas confining double radiogalaxies can be estimated from optical and x ray data. By applying these methods to an unbiased sample of nearby (z less than 0.5) double radiogalaxies, the author quantifies the empirical relation between the external confining pressure and the internal pressure of the lobes as inferred from the minimum energy argument. This relation is explained by an analytic model in which the lobes are statically confined by ambient material pre-heated in the bow-shock of the advancing radiosource. Such a model allows one to estimate source expansion speeds from a combination of radio and environmental data, and estimate properties of the environment from radio data alone, providing expansion speeds can be estimated from multifrequency observations.

Rawlings, Steve↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Study on the Photoelectrochemical Hydrogen Production from the Layout Optimization in a Unit Cell

Solar-driven water splitting is achieved by connecting photovoltaics with electrolysis. Recently, integrated approaches of the two configurations for photoelectrochemical reactions have shown great potential in a combined unit, but strategies to address further material and cell development face significant scientific challenges. Here, in this work, we present an experimental demonstration of photoelectrochemical (PEC) unit-cells with efficient separate dual compartments for oxygen evolution and hydrogen evolution reactions. The design and fabrication of cell architectures with various degrees of integration are investigated efficient and sustainable PEC processes. The effect of the nanostructured silicon (Si) photoelectrodes, including the adoption of layer architectures, surface protection layer deposition, and membrane electrode assembly is further studied to optimize the design parameters of the PEC unit-cells. This developed PEC cell with the Si photocathode achieved a photocurrent density of -4.8 mA cm –2 at -2.0 V cell and -2.87 mA cm –2 at -1.6 V cell . It clearly provides a critical milestone for unbiased solar water splitting. Practical solar to hydrogen (STH) can be directly estimated in investigating PEC performance in this unit-cell as assembled with a solar cell. It is a significantly meaningful step forward in practical solar fuel production.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inference of gravitational lensing and patchy reionization with future CMB data

We develop an optimal Bayesian solution for jointly inferring secondary signals in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) originating from gravitational lensing and from patchy screening during the epoch of reionization. This method is able to extract full information content from the data, improving upon previously considered quadratic estimators for lensing and screening. Here, we forecast constraints using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method, and show that they are largely dominated by CMB polarization, and depend on the exact details of reionization. For models consistent with current data which produce the largest screening signals, a detection (3 σ) of the cross-correlation between lensing and screening is possible with SPT-3G, and a detection of the auto-correlation is possible with CMB-S4. Models with the lowest screening signals evade the sensitivity of SPT-3G, but are still possible to detect with CMB-S4 via their lensing cross-correlation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Small-correlated-against-large estimator for the lensing of the cosmic microwave background

Weak gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) carries imprints of the physics operating at redshifts much lower than that of recombination and serves as an important probe of cosmological structure formation, dark matter physics, and the mass of neutrinos. Reconstruction of the CMB lensing deflection field through use of quadratic estimators has proven successful with existing data but is known to be sub-optimal on small angular scales ($\ell > 3000$) for experiments with low noise levels. Future experiments will provide better observations in this regime, but these techniques will remain statistically limited by their approximations. We show that correlations between fluctuations of the large-scale temperature gradient power of the CMB sourced by $\ell < 2000$, and fluctuations of the local small-scale temperature power reveal a lensing signal which is prominent in even the real-space pixel statistics across a CMB temperature map. We present the development of the Small Correlated Against Large Estimator (SCALE), a novel estimator for the CMB lensing spectrum which offers promising complementary analysis alongside other reconstruction techniques in this regime. The SCALE method computes correlations between both the large/small-scale temperature gradient power in harmonic space, and it is able to quantitatively recover unbiased statistics of the CMB lensing field without the need for map-level reconstruction. SCALE can outperform quadratic estimator signal-to-noise by a factor of up to 1.5 in current and upcoming experiments for CMB lensing power spectra $C_{6000 < L < 8000}^{\phi\phi}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Primordial non-Gaussianity with angular correlation function: integral constraint and validation for DES

ABSTRACT Local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) is a promising observable of the underlying physics of inflation, characterized by $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$. We present the methodology to measure $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data using the two-point angular correlation function (ACF) with scale-dependent bias. One of the focuses of the work is the integral constraint (IC). This condition appears when estimating the mean number density of galaxies from the data and is key in obtaining unbiased $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ constraints. The methods are analysed for two types of simulations: ∼246 goliat-png N-body small area simulations with fNL equal to −100 and 100, and 1952 Gaussian ice-cola mocks with fNL = 0 that follow the DES angular and redshift distribution. We use the ensemble of goliat-png mocks to show the importance of the IC when measuring PNG, where we recover the fiducial values of fNL within the 1σ when including the IC. In contrast, we found a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 100 when not including it. For a DES-like scenario, we forecast a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 23, equivalent to 1.8σ, when not using the IC for a fiducial value of fNL = 100. We use the ice-cola mocks to validate our analysis in a realistic DES-like set-up finding it robust to different analysis choices: best-fitting estimator, the effect of IC, BAO damping, covariance, and scale choices. We forecast a measurement of fNL within σ(fNL) = 31 when using the DES-Y3 BAO sample, with the ACF in the 1 deg < θ < 20 deg range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology From CMB Lensing and Delensed EE Power Spectra Using 2019-2020 SPT-3G Polarization Data

From CMB polarization data alone we reconstruct the CMB lensing power spectrum, comparable in overall constraining power to previous temperature-based reconstructions, and an unlensed E -mode power spectrum, with clear detections of the third through tenth acoustic peaks. The observations, taken in 2019 and 2020 with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the SPT-3G camera, cover 1500 deg 2 at 95, 150, and 220 GHz with arcminute resolution and roughly 4.9 µ K-arcmin coadded noise in polarization. The power spectrum estimates, together with systematic parameter estimates and a joint covariance matrix, follow from a Bayesian analysis using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method. The E -mode spectrum at ℓ > 2000 and lensing spectrum at L > 350 are the most precise to date. Assuming the ΛCDM model, and using only these SPT data and priors on τ and absolute calibration from Planck, we find H 0 = 66.81 ± 0.81 km/s/Mpc, comparable in precision to the Planck determination and in 5.4 σ tension with the most precise H 0 inference derived via the distance ladder. We also find S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.850 ± 0.017, providing further independent evidence of a slight tension with low-redshift structure probes. The ΛCDM model provides a good simultaneous fit to the combined Planck, ACT, and SPT data, and thus passes a powerful test. Combining these CMB datasets with BAO observations, we explore extensions to the ΛCDM model. We find that the effective number of neutrino species, spatial curvature, and primordial helium fraction are consistent with standard model values, and that the 95% confidence upper limit on the neutrino mass sum is 0.075 eV, close to the minimum sum expected from observations of solar and atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The SPT data are consistent with the somewhat weak (< 3 σ ) preference for excess lensing power seen in Planck and ACT data relative to predictions of the ΛCDM model given the combined Planck, ACT, and BAO data sets. Finally, we also detect at greater than 3 σ the influence of non-linear evolution in the CMB lensing power spectrum and discuss it in the context of the S 8 tension. Forthcoming SPT-3G analyses will feature deeper and wider observations in temperature and polarization, providing even tighter constraints and more powerful tests of the ΛCDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1979

Maximum likelihood estimation for life distributions with competing failure modes

The general model for the competing failure modes assuming that location parameters for each mode are expressible as linear functions of the stress variables and the failure modes act independently is presented. The general form of the likelihood function and the likelihood equations are derived for the extreme value distributions, and solving these equations using nonlinear least squares techniques provides an estimate of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimators. Monte-Carlo results indicate that, under appropriate conditions, the location parameters are nearly unbiased, the scale parameter is slightly biased, and the asymptotic covariances are rapidly approached.

Sidik, S. M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

All-purpose, all-sky photometric redshifts for the Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 8

ABSTRACT In this paper, we present photometric redshift (photo-z) estimates for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys, currently the most sensitive optical survey covering the majority of the extragalactic sky. Our photo-z methodology is based on a machine-learning approach, using sparse Gaussian processes augmented with Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) that allow regions of parameter space to be identified and trained separately in a purely data-driven way. The same GMMs are also used to calculate cost-sensitive learning weights that mitigate biases in the spectroscopic training sample. By design, this approach aims to produce reliable and unbiased predictions for all parts of the parameter space present in wide area surveys. Compared to previous literature estimates using the same underlying photometry, our photo-zs are significantly less biased and more accurate at z > 1, with negligible loss in precision or reliability for resolved galaxies at z < 1. Our photo-z estimates offer accurate predictions for rare high-value populations within the parent sample, including optically selected quasars at the highest redshifts (z > 6), as well as X-ray or radio continuum selected populations across a broad range of flux (densities) and redshift. Deriving photo-z estimates for the full Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 8, the catalogues provided in this work offer photo-z estimates predicted to be of high quality for ≳9 × 108 galaxies over ${\sim}19\, 400\, \text{deg}^{2}$ and spanning 0 < z ≲ 7, offering one of the most extensive samples of redshift estimates ever produced.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. II. Bayesian model calibration

Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. Here, in this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.

Brown, Justin Lee↗