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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Decadal Variability of Southeast US Rainfall in an Eddying Global Coupled Model

Abstract Ocean variability is a dominant source of remote rainfall predictability, but in many cases the physical mechanisms driving this predictability are not fully understood. This study examines how ocean mesoscales (i.e., the Gulf Stream SST front) affect decadal Southeast US (SEUS) rainfall, arguing that the local imprint of large‐scale teleconnections is sensitive to resolved mesoscale features. Based on global coupled model experiments with eddying and eddy‐parameterizing ocean, we find that a resolved Gulf Stream improves localized rainfall and remote circulation response in the SEUS. The eddying model generally improves the air‐sea interactions in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Subtropical High that modulate SEUS rainfall over decadal timescales. The eddy‐parameterizing simulation fails to capture the sharp SST gradient associated with the Gulf Stream and overestimates the role of tropical Pacific SST anomalies in the SEUS rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An extended radar relative calibration adjustment (eRCA) technique for higher-frequency radars and range–height indicator (RHI) scans

Abstract. This study extends the relative calibration adjustment technique for calibration of weather radars to higher-frequency radars as well as range–height indicator (RHI) scans. The calibration of weather radars represents one of the most dominant sources of error for their use in a variety of fields including quantitative precipitation estimation and model comparisons. While most weather radars are routinely calibrated, the frequency of calibration is often less than required, resulting in miscalibrated time periods. While full absolute calibration techniques often require the radar to be taken offline for a period of time, there have been online calibration techniques discussed in the literature. The relative calibration adjustment (RCA) technique uses the statistics of the ground clutter surrounding the radar as a monitoring source for the stability of calibration but has only been demonstrated to work at S- and C-band for plan-position indicator (PPI) scans at a constant elevation. In this work the RCA technique is modified to work with higher-frequency radars, including Ka-band cloud radars. At higher frequencies the properties of clutter can be much more variable. This work introduces an extended clutter selection procedure that incorporates the temporal stability of clutter and helps to improve the operational stability of RCA for relatively higher-frequency radars. The technique is also extended to utilize range–height scans from radars where the elevation is varied rather than the azimuth. These types of scans are often utilized with research radars to examine the vertical structure of clouds. The newly extended technique (eRCA) is applied to four Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (DOE ARM) weather radars ranging in frequency from C- to Ka-band. Cross comparisons of three co-located radars with frequencies C, X, and Ka at the ARM Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) site show that the technique can determine changes in calibration. Using an X-band radar at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site, we show how the technique can be modified to be more resilient to clutter fields that show increased variability, in this case due to sea clutter. The results show that this technique is promising for a posteriori data calibration and monitoring.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictability of Seawater DMS During the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES)

This work presents an overview of a unique set of surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) measurements from four shipboard field campaigns conducted during the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES) project. Variations in surface seawater DMS are discussed in relation to biological and physical observations. Results are considered at a range of timescales (seasons to days) and spatial scales (regional to sub-mesoscale). Elevated DMS concentrations are generally associated with greater biological productivity, although chlorophyll a (Chl) only explains a small fraction of the DMS variability (15%). Physical factors that determine the location of oceanic temperature fronts and depth of vertical mixing have an important influence on seawater DMS concentrations during all seasons. The interplay of biomass and physics influences DMS concentrations at regional/seasonal scales and at smaller spatial and shorter temporal scales. Seawater DMS measurements are compared with the global seawater DMS climatology and predictions made using a recently published algorithm and by a neural network model. The climatology is successful at capturing the seasonal progression in average seawater DMS, but does not reproduce the shorter spatial/temporal scale variability. The input terms common to the algorithm and neural network approaches are biological (Chl) and physical (mixed layer depth, photosynthetically active radiation, seawater temperature). Both models predict the seasonal North Atlantic average seawater DMS trends better than the climatology. However, DMS concentrations tend to be under-predicted and the episodic occurrence of higher DMS concentrations is poorly predicted. The choice of climatological seawater DMS product makes a substantial impact on the estimated DMS flux into the North Atlantic atmosphere. These results suggest that additional input terms are needed to improve the predictive capability of current state-of-the-art approaches to estimating seawater DMS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

A study of the effect of synoptic scale processes in GCM modelling

Research was conducted to help modeling groups at NASA to develop better weather forecasting and general circulation models (GCM) for activities relating to the meteorological uses of satellite data. The focus was on the physical processes that were being simulated by models: radiative effects and latent heat release associated with clouds; orographic influences; and heat transfer at the ocean and ice surfaces. An attempt was made to deduce the role of diabatic heating in North Atlantic cyclogenesis and in the global heat budget. Inferences were made in four studies: heat budget statistics from GCM assimilations; dynamics of north Atlantic cyclones; Cage-type energy budget calculations; and grid scale cloud formation. Mechanisms that were responsible for the variability and structure of the atmospheric on a hemispheric scale were studied by a hybrid of statistical analysis and theoretical modeling. Variability and structure are both related to synoptic scale processes through baroclinic and barotropic energy transformations.

Herman, Gerald F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Response of African Land Surface Phenology to Large Scale Climate Oscillations

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the African continent. Analysis of changes in phenology can provide quantitative information on the effect of climate variability on growing seasons in agricultural regions. Using a robust statistical methodology, we describe the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). We map the most significant positive and negative correlation for the four climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa between two phenological metrics and the climate indices. Our objective is to provide evidence of whether climate variability captured in the four indices has had a significant impact on the vegetative productivity of Africa during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by large scale variations in climate. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. In Western Africa the cumulative NDVI correlates with PDO in September-November. In Eastern Africa the start of the June-October season strongly correlates with PDO in March-May, while the PDO in December-February correlates with the start of the February-June season. The cumulative NDVI over this last season relates to the MEI of March-May. For Southern Africa, high correlations exist between SOS and NAO of September-November, and cumulative NDVI and MEI of March-May. The research shows that climate indices can be used to anticipate late start and variable vigor in the growing season of sensitive agricultural regions in Africa.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Secular Changes in the Solar Semidiurnal Tide of the Western North Atlantic Ocean

An analysis of twentieth century tide gauge records reveals that the solar semidiurnal tide S, has been decreasing in amplitude along the eastern coast of North America and at the mid-ocean site Bermuda. In relative terms the observed rates are unusually large, of order 10% per century. Periods of greatest change, however, are inconsistent among the stations, and roughly half the stations show increasing amplitude since the late 1990s. Excepting the Gulf of Maine, lunar tides are either static or slightly increasing in amplitude; a few stations show decreases. Large changes in solar, but not lunar, tides suggest causes related to variable radiational forcing, but the hypothesis is at present unproven. Citation: Ray, R. D. (2009), Secular changes in the solar semidiurnal tide of the western North Atlantic Ocean

Ray, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Variability↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cloud drop number concentrations over the western North Atlantic Ocean: seasonal cycle, aerosol interrelationships, and other influential factors

Cloud drop number concentrations (N d ) over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) are generally highest during the winter (DJF) and lowest in summer (JJA), in contrast to aerosol proxy variables (aerosoloptical depth, aerosol index, surface aerosol mass concentrations, surface cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations) that generally peak inspring (MAM) and JJA with minima in DJF. Using aircraft, satellite remote sensing, ground-based in situ measurement data, and reanalysis data, we characterize factors explaining the divergent seasonal cycles and furthermore probe into factors influencing N d on seasonal timescales. The results can be summarized well by features most pronounced in DJF, including features associated with cold-air outbreak (CAO) conditions such as enhanced values of CAO index, planetary boundary layer height (PBLH),low-level liquid cloud fraction, and cloud-top height, in addition to winds aligned with continental outflow. Data sorted into high- and low-N d days in each season, especially in DJF, revealed that all of these conditions were enhanced on the high-N d days, including reduced sea level pressure and stronger wind speeds. Although aerosols may be more abundant in MAM and JJA, the conditions needed to activate those particles into cloud droplets are weaker than in colder months, which is demonstrated by calculations of the strongest (weakest) aerosol indirect effects in DJF (JJA) based on comparing N d to perturbations in four different aerosol proxy variables (total and sulfate aerosol optical depth, aerosol index, surface mass concentration of sulfate). We used three machine learning models and up to 14 input variables to infer about most influential factors related to N d for DJF and JJA, with the best performance obtained with gradient-boosted regression tree (GBRT) analysis. The model results indicated that cloud fraction was the most important input variable, followed by some combination (depending on season) of CAO index and surface mass concentrations of sulfate and organic carbon. Future work is recommended to further understand aspects uncovered here such as impacts of free tropospheric aerosol entrainment on clouds, degree of boundary layer coupling, wet scavenging, and giant CCN effects on aerosol–N d relationships, updraft velocity, and vertical structure of cloud properties such as adiabaticity that impact the satellite estimation of N d .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Atmospheric variability and air-sea interaction

The topics studied include: (1) processing of Northern Hemispheric precipitation data, in order to fill in the transition seasons to provide a continuous 40 year data base on the variability of continental precipitation; (2) comparison of seasonally averaged fields of sea surface temperature obtained from ship observations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific in 1970 with the corresponding fields inferred from satellite observations; (3) estimation of seasonal average of total precipitable water at those admittedly few oceanic stations where repeated vertical soundings were made in 1970 and comparison with corresponding values inferred from satellite measurements; (4) comparison of seasonally averaged evaporation fields determined from ground based observations in 1970 with the field of divergence of the seasonal total horizontal water vapor flux inferred from satellite total water measurements and NMC wind data for the lower troposphere; (5) examination of meaning of convection-inversion index.

Middleton, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Satellite Observed Variability in Antarctic and Arctic Surface Temperatures and Their Correlation to Open Water Areas

Recent studies using meterological station data have indicated that global surface air temperature has been increasing at a rate of 0.05 K/decade. Using the same set of data but for stations in the Antarctic and Arctic regions (>50 N) only, the increases in temperature were 0.08, and 0.22 K/decade, when record lengths of 100 and 50 years, respectively, were used. To gain insights into the increasing rate of warming, satellite infrared and passive microwave observations over the Arctic region during the last 20 years were processed and analyzed. The results show that during this period, the ice extent in the Antarctic has been increasing at the rate of 1.2% per decade while the surface temperature has been decreasing at about 0.08 K per decade. Conversely, in the Northern Hemisphere, the ice extent has been decreasing at a rate of 2.8% per decade, while the surface temperatures have been increasing at the rate of 0.38 K per decade. In the Antarctic, it is surprising that there is a short term trend of cooling during a global period of warming. Very large anomalies in open water areas in the Arctic were observed especially in the western region, that includes the Beaufort Sea, where the observed open water area was about 1x10(exp 6) sq km, about twice the average for the region, during the summer of 1998. In the eastern region, that includes the Laptev Sea, the area of open water was also abnormally large in the summer of 1995. Note that globally, the warmest and second warmest years in this century, were 1998 and 1995, respectively. The data, however, show large spatial variability with the open water area distribution showing a cyclic periodicity of about ten years, which is akin to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations. This was observed in both western and eastern regions but with the phase of one lagging the other by about two years. This makes it difficult to interpret what the trends really mean. But although the record length of satellite data is still relatively short and the climate trend difficult to establish, the immediate impact of a continued warming trend may be very profound.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Unraveling the Mechanisms and Implications of a Stronger Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in PlioMIP2

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. This contributes to an increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea that can be linked to the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensemble's variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction in the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic.

AMOC↗
NASA NTRS2024

Long-Term Trends in Aerosols, Low Clouds, and Large-scale Meteorology over the Western North Atlantic from 2003 to 2020

A continuous decrease of aerosol over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) on decadal timescales provides a long-term experiment to evaluate how other natural and anthropogenic processes affect the manifestation of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region. Furthermore, the WNAO is a natural laboratory with diverse aerosol sources, marine boundary layer clouds that are more variable than marine stratocumulus deck regions, and unique flow regimes set up by the Gulf Stream and semi-permanent Bermuda High. We investigate how satellite-retrieved macrophysical and microphysical properties of low clouds and the surface shortwave irradiance changed from 2003 to 2020, in tandem with this aerosol decrease. The decadal changes in large-scale meteorology relating to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined. We find no significant changes in low-cloud fraction but a widespread reduction in low-cloud optical depth attributed to fewer and larger cloud droplets with almost no change in cloud liquid water path. Despite robust signals in low-cloud optical properties together with aerosol decrease, a corresponding increase in the surface shortwave irradiance trends, also called surface brightening, is lacking. This absence of brightening is potentially due to concomitant changes found in large-scale meteorology associated with NAO— a Bermuda High strengthening, sea surface warming, and atmospheric moistening— as well as an increase in high cloud fraction that can counteract the surface brightening. Ultimately, our findings suggest that spatial patterns in the decadal meteorological variability, likely set up by NAO, contribute more to the surface cloud radiative effect over the WNAO than aerosol-cloud interactions.

J Minnie Park↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Effect of Ocean Currents on Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

We investigate regional and global-scale correlations between observed anomalies in sea surface temperature and height. A strong agreement between the two fields is found over a broad range of latitudes for different ocean basins. Both time-longitude plots and wavenumber-frequency spectra suggest an advective forcing of SST anomalies by a first-mode baroclinic wave field on spatial scales down to 400 km and time scales as short as 1 month. Even though the magnitude of the mean background temperature gradient is determining for the effectiveness of the forcing, there is no obvious seasonality that can be detected in the amplitudes of SST anomalies. Instead, individual wave signatures in the SST can in some cases be followed over periods of two years. The phase relationship between SST and SSH anomalies is dependent upon frequency and wavenumber and displays a clear decrease of the phase lag toward higher latitudes where the two fields come into phase at low frequencies. Estimates of the damping coefficient are larger than generally obtained for a purely atmospheric feedback. From a global frequency spectrum a damping time scale of 2-3 month was found. Regionally results are very variable and range from 1 month near strong currents to 10 month at low latitudes and in the sub-polar North Atlantic. Strong agreement is found between the first global EOF modes of 10 day averaged and spatially smoothed SST and SSH grids. The accompanying time series display low frequency oscillations in both fields.

Stammer, Detlef↗
NASA NTRS2002

Subtropical Gyre Variability Observed by Ocean Color Satellites

The subtropical gyres of the world are extensive, coherent regions that occupy about 40% of the surface of the earth. Once thought to be homogeneous and static habitats, there is increasing evidence that mid-latitude gyres exhibit substantial physical and biological variability on a variety of time scales. While biological productivity within these oligotrophic regions may be relatively small, their immense size makes their total contribution significant. Global distributions of dynamic height derived from satellite altimeter data, and chlorophyll concentration derived from satellite ocean color data, show that the dynamic center of the gyres, the region of maximum dynamic height where the thermocline is deepest, does not coincide with the region of minimum chlorophyll concentration. The physical and biological processes by which this distribution of ocean properties is maintained, and the spatial and temporal scales of variability associated with these processes, are analyzed using global surface chlorophyll-a concentrations, sea surface height, sea surface temperature and surface winds from operational satellite and meteorological sources, and hydrographic data from climatologies and individual surveys. Seasonal and interannual variability in the areal extent of the subtropical gyres are examined using 8 months (November 1996 - June 1997) of OCTS and nearly 5 years (September 1997 - June 02) of SeaWiFS ocean color data and are interpreted in the context of climate variability and measured changes in other ocean properties (i.e., wind forcing, surface currents, Ekman pumping, and vertical mixing). The North Pacific and North Atlantic gyres are observed to be shrinking over this period, while the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and South Indian Ocean gyres appear to be expanding.

McClain, Charles R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Trends in Aerosols, Low Clouds, and Large-Scale Meteorology Over the Western North Atlantic From 2003 to 2020

Here, a continuous decrease in aerosols over the Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) on a decadal timescale provides a long-term benchmark to evaluate how various natural and anthropogenic processes affect the manifestation of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region. Furthermore, the WNAO serves as a natural laboratory with diverse aerosol sources, marine boundary layer clouds more variable than those in marine stratocumulus deck regions, and unique flow regimes established by the Gulf Stream and the semi-permanent Bermuda High. We investigate how satellite-retrieved macrophysical and microphysical properties of low clouds and the surface shortwave irradiance changed from 2003 to 2020, in tandem with this aerosol decrease. The decadal changes in large-scale meteorology related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined. We find a reduction in low-cloud optical thickness, accompanied by fewer and larger cloud droplets, yet observe no significant changes in low-cloud fraction and liquid water path. Despite the reduction in low-cloud optical thickness together with aerosol decrease, a corresponding increase in the trends of surface shortwave irradiance, also known as surface brightening, is lacking. This absence of brightening is potentially related to concomitant changes found in large-scale meteorology associated with NAO—Bermuda High strengthening, sea surface warming, and atmospheric moistening— as well as an increase in high-level cloud fraction that can counteract the surface brightening. Ultimately, our findings suggest that spatial patterns of decadal meteorological variability introduce complexities in the surface cloud radiative effect over the WNAO, thereby complicating the isolation and examination of aerosol-cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of Atmospheric Noise in Decadal SST Variability

Abstract A substantial role for atmospheric noise in simulations of decadal internal variability of SST is demonstrated by a comparison of a multicentury climate model control and a corresponding interactive ensemble (IE) simulation. The IE is designed to reduce atmospheric noise in the heat flux, wind stress, and freshwater flux at the air–sea interface. This comparison suggests that nearly all SST variability on decadal time scales is forced by internal atmospheric variability. The results are examined to determine the relative roles of atmospheric surface heat flux noise and ocean dynamics in the decadal volume-averaged heat budget of the upper ocean. The regional heat budgets in two regions, the South Pacific and the midlatitude North Atlantic, show the net atmospheric surface heat flux to be approximately in equilibrium with the ocean dynamics forcing. The IE and control results are used in the equilibrium heat budget approximation to infer the atmospheric heat flux response to SST, as well as the time series of the control atmospheric noise surface heat flux and ocean dynamics forcings for several regions. The South Pacific region SST is found to be primarily forced by the atmospheric noise surface heat flux and the North Atlantic region SST is forced by the ocean dynamics. Similar strengths for the atmospheric heat flux noise and ocean dynamics forcing, with an interdecadal atmospheric heat flux noise time scale and a centennial ocean dynamics time scale, are found for an Atlantic multidecadal variability region SST.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DOE E3SM version 2.1: overview and assessment of the impacts of parameterized ocean submesoscales

The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2.1 builds on E3SMv2 with several changes, with the most notable being the addition of the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization. This parameterization captures the effect of finite-amplitude, mixed-layer eddies as an overturning streamfunction and has the primary function of restratification. Herein, we outline the changes to the mean climate state of E3SM that were introduced by the addition of this parameterization. Overall, the presence of the submesoscale parameterization improves the fidelity of the v2.1 simulation by reducing the ocean surface biases in the North Atlantic present in v2, as illustrated by changes in the climatological sea surface temperature and salinity and the Arctic sea-ice extent. Other impacts include a slight shoaling of the mixed-layer depths in the North Atlantic and a small improvement in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We note that the expected shoaling due to the parameterization is regionally dependent in our coupled configuration. In addition, we investigate why the parameterization and its impacts on mixed-layer depth have little impact on the simulated AMOC: despite increased dense-water formation in the Norwegian Sea, only a small fraction of the water formed makes its way south into the North Atlantic basin. Version 2.1 also exhibits small improvements in the atmospheric climatology, with smaller biases in many notable quantities and modes of variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Introduction to: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)

A striking conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report is the crucial role that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play in anthropogenic climate change. However, these IPCC coupled climate simulations show a broad range of uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of AMOC transport change ranging from none to nearly complete collapse within the 21st century. The potential consequences of large changes in the characteristics of AMOC have motivated the creation in the United States of an interagency program and implementation plan to develop monitoring and prediction capabilities for the AMOC This program parallels the development of substantial monitoring efforts by European, South American and African countries -- notably the UK Rapid and Rapid-Watch programs. The papers contained in this volume are derived from presentations at the First U.S. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Meeting held 4 - 6 May, 2009 to review the US implementation plan and its coordination with other monitoring activities. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation consists of multiple components illustrated in an attached figure. Water enters the South Atlantic at upper and intermediate depths through both western and eastern routes (where eddy transport is especially important) and is transported northward across the equator, where it recirculates within the northern subtropical and subpolar gyres. The northern end is defined by the sinking regions of the Nordic Seas and the Labrador Sea where the waters that eventually form the upper and lower branches of North Atlantic Deep Water are conditioned. High surface salinities, the result of high net evaporation in the tropics and subtropics (including the Mediterranean Sea), and presence of regions of the Arctic Ocean that remain ice-free even in winter allow for the rapid cooling and thus densification of surface water. This dense surface water becomes the source of deep water formation in the sinking regions. In addition to transporting mass, the AMOC transports roughly half of the total amount of heat carried northward through the northern subtropics (down the temperature-gradient) by the ocean. In contrast in the Southern Hemisphere AMOC transports heat up-gradient from the cool Circumpolar Current to the warm tropics. Paleoevidence suggests that AMOC heat transport in the two hemispheres has varied over time in ways intimately tied to millennial changes in the Earth's climate. In one example, the abrupt Younger Dryas spell of cold weather over the North Atlantic, which began 13,000 years ago, has generally been linked to a millennial shutdown of the AMOC as a result of massive freshwater discharge from the North American continent. The current AMOC monitoring array consists of a series of instrumented transects located across key passages (see Cunningham et al., 2010 for a recent review). In the Arctic and sub-Arctic, transects cross Fram Strait, Denmark Strait and the Faroe Channel (connecting Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom), as well as the entrance to the Labrador Sea. Further south and extending outwards from the east coast of North America there are a series of monitoring arrays including arrays of the Canadian Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program, deployments of the Rapid Western Atlantic Variability Experiment (WAVE), Line W at 39 N, as well as the Rapid-MOC moored array. The latter spans the entire Atlantic basin along 26.5 N. At tropical latitudes we have the Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) array at 16 N, while in the Southern Hemisphere a corresponding basin-spanning transect is being established at the latitude of Cape of Good Hope, complemented by arrays at Drake Passage.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗