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Optimal PMU design based on sampling model and sensitivity analysis

The precise measurements of the synchrophasor and frequency from phasor measurement units (PMUs) are widely used in power grid applications. With the improvement of the technique, applications always require stable dynamic performance and higher accuracy for the synchrophasor and frequency measurements, which is challenging for PMU development. To evaluate the contribution of PMU hardware to measurement accuracy, this paper proposes a general-purpose sampling model to analyze the measurement error. In the proposed sampling model, a strict mathematical derivation is derived, where its error is purely determined by the parameters of the PMU hardware. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by three methods, including mathematical analysis, computer simulation, and variance-based sensitivity analysis. Through the sensitivity analysis, this paper establishes the systematic formulation and the inclusion of synchrophasor, frequency, and ROCOF. Experimental results based on the real-world testbench involving distribution-level PMUs match the mathematical analysis conclusion, which verifies the correctness of the general-purpose sampling model. Furthermore, a strategy for the optimal PMU design is proposed, which could guide PMU design in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Metrological analysis of a virtual flowmeter-based transducer for cryogenic helium

The metrological performance of a virtual flowmeter-based transducer for monitoring helium under cryogenic conditions is assessed. At this aim, an uncertainty model of the transducer, mainly based on a valve model, exploiting finite-element approach, and a virtual flowmeter model, based on the Sereg-Schlumberger method, are presented. The models are validated experimentally on a case study for helium monitoring in cryogenic systems at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). The impact of uncertainty sources on the transducer metrological performance is assessed by a sensitivity analysis, based on statistical experiment design and analysis of variance. In this way, the uncertainty sources most influencing metrological performance of the transducer are singled out over the input range as a whole, at varying operating and setting conditions. This analysis turns out to be important for CERN cryogenics operation because the metrological design of the transducer is validated, and its components and working conditions with critical specifications for future improvements are identified.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Characterizing changes in soil bacterial community structure in response to short-term warming

High altitude alpine meadows are experiencing considerably greater than average increases in soil surface temperature, potentially as a result of ongoing climate change. The effects of warming on plant productivity and soil edaphic variables have been established previously, but the influence of warming on soil microbial community structure has not been well characterized. Here, the impact of 15 months of soil warming (both + 1 and + 2 degrees C) on bacterial community structure was examined in a field experiment on a Tibetan plateau alpine meadow using bar-coded pyrosequencing. Warming significantly changed (P < 0.05) the structure of the soil bacterial community, but the alpha diversity was not dramatically affected. Changes in the abundance of the Actinobacteria and Alphaproteobacteria were found to contribute the most to differences between ambient (AT) and artificially warmed conditions. A variance partitioning analysis (VPA) showed that warming directly explained 7.15% variation in bacterial community structure, while warming-induced changes in soil edaphic and plant phenotypic properties indirectly accounted for 28.3% and 20.6% of the community variance, respectively. Interestingly, certain taxa showed an inconsistent response to the two warming treatments, for example Deltaproteobacteria showed a decreased relative abundance at + 1 degrees C, but a return to AT control relative abundance at + 2 degrees C. This suggests complex microbial dynamics that could result from conditional dependencies between bacterial taxa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Human Factors Analysis of EVA Time Requirements

Human Factors Engineering (HFE) is a discipline whose goal is to engineer a safer, more efficient interface between humans and machines. HFE makes use of a wide range of tools and techniques to fulfill this goal. One of these tools is known as motion and time study, a technique used to develop time standards for given tasks. During the summer of 1995, a human factors motion and time study was initiated with the goals of developing a database of EVA task times and developing a method of utilizing the database to predict how long an EVA should take. Initial development relied on the EVA activities performed during the STS-61 (Hubble) mission. The first step of the study was to become familiar with EVA's, the previous task-time studies, and documents produced on EVA's. After reviewing these documents, an initial set of task primitives and task-time modifiers was developed. Data was collected from videotaped footage of two entire STS-61 EVA missions and portions of several others, each with two EVA astronauts. Feedback from the analysis of the data was used to further refine the primitives and modifiers used. The project was continued during the summer of 1996, during which data on human errors was also collected and analyzed. Additional data from the STS-71 mission was also collected. Analysis of variance techniques for categorical data was used to determine which factors may affect the primitive times and how much of an effect they have. Probability distributions for the various task were also generated. Further analysis of the modifiers and interactions is planned.

Pate, Dennis W.↗

SU-F-T-386: Analysis of Three QA Methods for Predicting Dose Deviation Pass Percentage for Lung SBRT VMAT Plans

Purpose: To investigate the significance of using pinpoint ionization chambers (IC) and RadCalc (RC) in determining the quality of lung SBRT VMAT plans with low dose deviation pass percentage (DDPP) as reported by ScandiDos Delta4 (D4). To quantify the relationship between DDPP and point dose deviations determined by IC (ICDD), RadCalc (RCDD), and median dose deviation reported by D4 (D4DD). Methods: Point dose deviations and D4 DDPP were compiled for 45 SBRT VMAT plans. Eighteen patients were treated on Varian Truebeam linear accelerators (linacs); the remaining 27 were treated on Elekta Synergy linacs with Agility collimators. A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed to determine if there were any statistically significant differences between D4DD, ICDD, and RCDD. Tukey’s test was used to determine which pair of means was statistically different from each other. Multiple regression analysis was performed to determine if D4DD, ICDD, or RCDD are statistically significant predictors of DDPP. Results: Median DDPP, D4DD, ICDD, and RCDD were 80.5% (47.6%–99.2%), −0.3% (−2.0%–1.6%), 0.2% (−7.5%–6.3%), and 2.9% (−4.0%–19.7%), respectively. The ANOVA showed a statistically significant difference between D4DD, ICDD, and RCDD for a 95% confidence interval (p < 0.001). Tukey’s test revealed a statistically significant difference between two pairs of groups, RCDD-D4DD and RCDD-ICDD (p < 0.001), but no difference between ICDD-D4DD (p = 0.485). Multiple regression analysis revealed that ICDD (p = 0.04) and D4DD (p = 0.03) are statistically significant predictors of DDPP with an adjusted r{sup 2} of 0.115. Conclusion: This study shows ICDD predicts trends in D4 DDPP; however this trend is highly variable as shown by our low r{sup 2}. This work suggests that ICDD can be used as a method to verify DDPP in delivery of lung SBRT VMAT plans. RCDD may not validate low DDPP discovered in D4 QA for small field SBRT treatments.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-F-T-252: An Investigation of Gamma Knife Frame Definition Error When Using a Pre-Planning Workflow

Purpose: To determine causal factors related to high frame definition error when treating GK patients using a pre-planning workflow. Methods: 160 cases were retrospectively reviewed. All patients received treatment using a pre-planning workflow whereby stereotactic coordinates are determined from a CT scan acquired after framing using a fiducial box. The planning software automatically detects the fiducials and compares their location to expected values based on the rigid design of the fiducial system. Any difference is reported as mean and maximum frame definition error. The manufacturer recommends these values be less than 1.0 mm and 1.5 mm. In this study, frame definition error was analyzed in comparison with a variety of factors including which neurosurgeon/oncologist/physicist was involved with the procedure, number of post used during framing (3 or 4), type of lesion, and which CT scanner was utilized for acquisition. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach was used to statistically evaluate the data and determine causal factors related to instances of high frame definition error. Results: Two factors were identified as significant: number of post (p=0.0003) and CT scanner (p=0.0001). Further analysis showed that one of the four scanners was significantly different than the others. This diagnostic scanner was identified as an older model with localization lasers not tightly calibrated. The average value for maximum frame definition error using this scanner was 1.48 mm (4 posts) and 1.75 mm (3 posts). For the other scanners this value was 1.13 mm (4 posts) and 1.40 mm (3 posts). Conclusion: In utilizing a pre-planning workflow the choice of CT scanner matters. Any scanner utilized for GK should undergo routine QA at a level appropriate for radiation oncology. In terms of 3 vs 4 post, it is hypothesized that three posts provide less stability during CT acquisition. This will be tested in future work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An assessment of total depletion uncertainties for a GBC-32 dry storage cask with PLUS7 fuels using Monte Carlo sampling and two-way ANOVA F-test

It is important to accurately evaluate depletion uncertainties that exist due to the limitations of a computer code on accuracy in a nuclear depletion calculation for criticality safety analysis. In this work, the bias and bias uncertainty in the effective neutron multiplication factor (k{sub eff}) for the generic 32 PWR-assembly burnup credit (GBC-32) cask system were assessed using the Monte Carlo uncertainty sampling method for three different burnups and the isotopic biases and uncertainties obtained with the calculated and measured isotopic concentrations. The PLUS7 used nuclear fuel assemblies discharged from the Hanbit Nuclear Power Plant Unit 3 were assumed to be loaded into the GBC-32 cask. In addition, the statistical F-test in the two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was suggested to efficiently estimate the statistically converged total depletion uncertainty in k{sub eff}, with a significant reduction of computing efforts in the Monte Carlo criticality calculations, and it was applied to the GBC-32 cask system after a sensitivity analysis was performed to select the important nuclides having significant contributions to the total depletion uncertainty. With the statistical F-tests in the two-way ANOVA, 100 criticality calculations were needed to get a statistically converged total depletion uncertainty for 10 and 30 GWD/MTU, while 120 criticality calculations were needed for 50 GWD/MTU. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Effects of Ar-40 and Fe-56 ions on retinal photoreceptor cells of the rabbit: Implications for manned missions to Mars

Losses of photoreceptor cells (rods) from the retinas of New Zealand white (NZW) rabbits were detectable within 2 years after localized acute irradiation of optic and proximal tissues with greater than or equal to 7 Gy of 530 MeV u(exp -1) Ar-40 ions or greater than or equal to 2 Gy of 465 MeV u(exp -1) Fe-56 ions in the Bragg plateau region of energy deposition. Those limits were determined only from an analysis of variance of dose groups because the shapes of the dose response curves at early post-irradiation times are not known, a concern being addressed by experiments in progress. Losses of photoreceptor cells for the period 0.5-2.5 years post-irradiation, determined by provisional linear regression analysis, were approxiamtely 1.7% Gy(exp -1) and 2.5% Gy(exp.-1) for Ar-40 and Fe-56 ions, respectively.

Williams, G. R.↗

Variance reduction in Monte Carlo analysis of rarefied gas diffusion

The present analysis uses the Monte Carlo method to solve the problem of rarefied diffusion between parallel walls. The diffusing molecules are evaporated or emitted from one of two parallel walls and diffused through another molecular species. The analysis treats the diffusing molecule as undergoing a Markov random walk and the local macroscopic properties are found as the expected value of the random variable, the random walk payoff. By biasing the transition probabilities and changing the collision payoffs the expected Markov walk payoff is retained but its variance is reduced so that the M. C. result has a much smaller error.

Perlmutter, M.↗

Variance reduction in Monte Carlo analysis of rarefied gas diffusion.

The problem of rarefied diffusion between parallel walls is solved using the Monte Carlo method. The diffusing molecules are evaporated or emitted from one of the two parallel walls and diffuse through another molecular species. The Monte Carlo analysis treats the diffusing molecule as undergoing a Markov random walk, and the local macroscopic properties are found as the expected value of the random variable, the random walk payoff. By biasing the transition probabilities and changing the collision payoffs, the expected Markov walk payoff is retained but its variance is reduced so that the Monte Carlo result has a much smaller error.

Perlmutter, M.↗

Impact of Thematic Mapper Sensor Characteristics on Classification Accuracy

A three factor (spectral, spatial, and radiometric resolution), two level (TM and MSS) analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach allowed evaluation of the effects of each factor individually and in all possible combinations. Digital classification accuracy was used as the figure of merit. Nine study sites in Washington, D.C. each of approximately 256 x 256 TM pixels, were randomly selected from the full scene for analysis. These results strongly suggest that the quantization level improvements and the addition of new spectral bands in the visible and middle IR regions (both afforded by the TM sensor design) can result in improved capabilities to accurately delineate land cover categories using a per point Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier. On the other hand, results indicate that the increase in spatial resolution to 30m does not significantly enhance classification accuracy. The spatial result points to an inherent limitation of a per point classifier and to the need to improve data analysis techniques to handle high spatial resolution data.

Williams, D. L.↗

Impact of thematic mapper sensor characteristics on classification accuracy

A three factor (spectral, spatial, and radiometric resolution), two level (TM and MSS) analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach allowed evaluation of the effects of each factor individually and in all possible combinations. Digital classification accuracy was used as the figure of merit. Nine study sites in Washington, DC, each of approximately 256 x 256 TM pixels, were randomly selected from the full scene for analysis. These results strongly suggest that the quantization level improvements and the addition of new spectral bands in the visible and middle IR regions (both afforded by the TM sensor design) can result in improved capabilities to accurately delineate land cover categories using a per point Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier. On the other hand, results indicate that the increase in spatial resolution to 30 m does not significantly enhance classification accuracy. The spatial result points to an inherent limitation of a per point classifier and to the need to improve data analysis techniques to handle high spatial resolution data.

Williams, D. L.↗

An Integrated Study to Analyze Soil Microbial Community Structure and Metabolic Potential in Two Forest Types

Soil microbial metabolic potential and ecosystem function have received little attention owing to difficulties in methodology. In this study, we selected natural mature forest and natural secondary forest and analyzed the soil microbial community and metabolic potential combing the high-throughput sequencing and GeoChip technologies. Phylogenetic analysis based on 16S rRNA sequencing showed that one known archaeal phylum and 15 known bacterial phyla as well as unclassified phylotypes were presented in these forest soils, and Acidobacteria, Protecobacteria, and Actinobacteria were three of most abundant phyla. The detected microbial functional gene groups were related to different biogeochemical processes, including carbon degradation, carbon fixation, methane metabolism, nitrogen cycling, phosphorus utilization, sulfur cycling, etc. The Shannon index for detected functional gene probes was significantly higher (P<0.05) at natural secondary forest site. The regression analysis showed that a strong positive (P<0.05) correlation was existed between the soil microbial functional gene diversity and phylogenetic diversity. Mantel test showed that soil oxidizable organic carbon, soil total nitrogen and cellulose, glucanase, and amylase activities were significantly linked (P<0.05) to the relative abundance of corresponded functional gene groups. Variance partitioning analysis showed that a total of 81.58% of the variation in community structure was explained by soil chemical factors, soil temperature, and plant diversity. Therefore, the positive link of soil microbial structure and composition to functional activity related to ecosystem functioning was existed, and the natural secondary forest soil may occur the high microbial metabolic potential. Although the results can’t directly reflect the actual microbial populations and functional activities, this study provides insight into the potential activity of the microbial community and associated feedback responses of the terrestrial ecosystem to environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Upright Gait with Supine Bungee-Cord Gait

Running on a treadmill with bungee-cord resistance is currently used on the Russian space station MIR as a countermeasure for the loss of bone and muscular strength which occurs during spaceflight. However, it is unknown whether ground reaction force (GRF) at the feet using bungee-cord resistance is similar to that which occurs during upright walking and running on Earth. We hypothesized-that the DRAMs generated during upright walking and running are greater than the DRAMs generated during supine bungee-cord gait. Eleven healthy subjects walked (4.8 +/- 0.13 km/h, mean +/- SE) and ran (9.1 +/- 0.51 km/h) during upright and supine bungee-cord exercise on an active treadmill. Subjects exercised for 3 min in each condition using a resistance of 1 body weight calibrated during an initial, stationary standing position. Data were sampled at a frequency of 500Hz and the mean of 3 trials was analyzed for each condition. A repeated measures analysis of variance tested significance between the conditions. Peak DRAMs during upright walking were significantly greater (1084.9 +/- 111.4 N) than during supine bungee-cord walking (770.3 +/- 59.8 N; p less than 0.05). Peak GRFs were also significantly greater for upright running (1548.3 +/- 135.4 N) than for supine bungee-cord running (1099.5 +/- 158.46 N). Analysis of GRF curves indicated that forces decreased throughout the stance phase for bungee-cord gait but not during upright gait. These results indicate that bungee-cord exercise may not create sufficient loads at the feet to counteract the loss of bone and muscular strength that occurs during long-duration exposure to microgravity.

Boda, Wanda L.↗

An adaptive least-squares global sensitivity method and application to a plasma-coupled combustion prediction with parametric correlation

We introduce an efficient non-intrusive surrogate-based methodology for global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. Modified covariance-based sensitivity indices (mCov-SI) are defined for outputs that reflect correlated effects. The overall approach is applied to simulations of a complex plasma-coupled combustion system with disparate uncertain parameters in sub-models for chemical kinetics and a laser-induced breakdown ignition seed. The surrogate is based on an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) expansion, such as widely used in statistics, with orthogonal polynomials representing the ANOVA subspaces and a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) representing its multi-dimensional components. The coefficients of the PDD expansion are obtained using a least-squares regression, which both avoids the direct computation of high-dimensional integrals and affords an attractive flexibility in choosing sampling points. This facilitates importance sampling using a Bayesian calibrated posterior distribution, which is fast and thus particularly advantageous in common practical cases, such as our large-scale demonstration, for which the asymptotic convergence properties of polynomial expansions cannot be realized due to computation expense. Effort, instead, is focused on efficient finite-resolution sampling. Standard covariance-based sensitivity indices (Cov-SI) are employed to account for correlation of the uncertain parameters. Magnitude of Cov-SI is unfortunately unbounded, which can produce extremely large indices that limit their utility. Alternatively, mCov-SI are then proposed in order to bound this magnitude $\in$ [0, 1]. The polynomial expansion is coupled with an adaptive ANOVA strategy to provide an accurate surrogate as the union of several low-dimensional spaces, avoiding the typical computational cost of a high-dimensional expansion. It is also adaptively simplified according to the relative contribution of the different polynomials to the total variance. Finally, the approach is demonstrated for a laser-induced turbulent combustion simulation model, which includes parameters with correlated effects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Acoustic Charge Transport Imager for High Definition Television Applications: Reliability Modeling and Parametric Yield Prediction of GaAs Multiple Quantum Well Avalanche Photodiodes

Reliability modeling and parametric yield prediction of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiodes (APDs), which are of interest as an ultra-low noise image capture mechanism for high definition systems, have been investigated. First, the effect of various doping methods on the reliability of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiode (APD) structures fabricated by molecular beam epitaxy is investigated. Reliability is examined by accelerated life tests by monitoring dark current and breakdown voltage. Median device lifetime and the activation energy of the degradation mechanism are computed for undoped, doped-barrier, and doped-well APD structures. Lifetimes for each device structure are examined via a statistically designed experiment. Analysis of variance shows that dark-current is affected primarily by device diameter, temperature and stressing time, and breakdown voltage depends on the diameter, stressing time and APD type. It is concluded that the undoped APD has the highest reliability, followed by the doped well and doped barrier devices, respectively. To determine the source of the degradation mechanism for each device structure, failure analysis using the electron-beam induced current method is performed. This analysis reveals some degree of device degradation caused by ionic impurities in the passivation layer, and energy-dispersive spectrometry subsequently verified the presence of ionic sodium as the primary contaminant. However, since all device structures are similarly passivated, sodium contamination alone does not account for the observed variation between the differently doped APDs. This effect is explained by the dopant migration during stressing, which is verified by free carrier concentration measurements using the capacitance-voltage technique.

Hunt, W. D.↗

Comparison of image noise and image quality between full-dose abdominal computed tomography scans reconstructed with weighted filtered back projection and half-dose scans reconstructed with improved sinogram-affirmed iterative reconstruction (SAFIRE*)

Purpose: To retrospectively compare the image noise, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and subjective image quality between CT images acquired with a dual-source, split-dose imaging protocol reconstructed at full and half doses with weighted filtered back projection (wFBP) and an improved sinogram-affirmed iterative reconstruction algorithm (SAFIRE*). Methods: Fifty-three consecutive patients underwent contrast-enhanced CT of the abdomen using a standardized dual-source, single energy CT protocol. Half-dose images were retrospectively generated using data from one detector only. Full-dose datasets were reconstructed with wFBP, while half-dose datasets were reconstructed with wFBP and SAFIRE* strengths 1–5. Region of interest analysis was performed to assess SNR and noise. Diagnostic acceptability, subjective noise, and spatial resolution were graded on a 10-point scale by two readers. Statistical analysis was carried out with repeated measures analysis of variance, Wilcoxon signed rank test, and Cohen’s κ test. Results: With the increasing strengths of SAFIRE*, a progressive reduction in noise and increase in SNR (p < 0.01) was observed. There was a statistically significant decrease in objective noise and increase in SNR in half-dose SAFIRE* strength 4 and 5 reconstructions compared to full-dose reconstructions using wFBP (p < 0.01). Qualitative analysis revealed a progressive increase in diagnostic acceptability, decrease in subjective noise and increase in spatial resolution for half-dose images reconstructed with the increasing strengths of SAFIRE* (p < 0.01). Conclusions: Half-dose CT images reconstructed with SAFIRE* at strength 4 and 5 have superior image quality compared to full-dose images reconstructed with wFBP. SAFIRE* potentially allows dose reductions in the order of 50% over wFBP.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗