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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1995

Bidirectional reflectance of oceanic waters: A comparison of modeled and measured upward radiance fields

The bidirectional reflectance of oceanic waters is conveniently described in a normalized way by forming the ratio of the upwelling irradiance E(sub u) to any upwelling radiance L(sub u)(theta prime, phi). This ratio, Q (theta prime, theta(sub 0), (phi(sub 0) - phi), where theta prime, phi are the nadir and azimuth angles for the upward radiance and theta(sub 0), phi(sub 0) are the zenith and azimuth angles of the Sun, has been determined from measurements at sea and computed via Monte Carlo simulations using the inherent optical properties measured in the field and appropriate boundary conditions (clear sky, no wind, varying Sun angle). Experimental ad computed Q values are in excellent agreement. This successful comparison confirms the importance of the bidirectional character of ocean reflectance, already pointed out from a purely numerical approach without field validation, and corroborates the extended range of the Q variations. The later point is of importance when interpreting the marine signals detected by an ocean color satellite-borne sensor. The validation is extended by considering the historical data for the radiance distributions in Lake Pend Oreille determined at various depths. The closure issue in ocean optics is examined by solving the direct problem of radiative transfer and through a model-data comparison in terms of radiance field.

Morel, Andre↗

NASA NTRS2003

Estimation and Simulation of Slow Crack Growth Parameters from Constant Stress Rate Data

Closed form, approximate functions for estimating the variances and degrees-of-freedom associated with the slow crack growth parameters n, D, B, and A(sup *) as measured using constant stress rate ('dynamic fatigue') testing were derived by using propagation of errors. Estimates made with the resulting functions and slow crack growth data for a sapphire window were compared to the results of Monte Carlo simulations. The functions for estimation of the variances of the parameters were derived both with and without logarithmic transformation of the initial slow crack growth equations. The transformation was performed to make the functions both more linear and more normal. Comparison of the Monte Carlo results and the closed form expressions derived with propagation of errors indicated that linearization is not required for good estimates of the variances of parameters n and D by the propagation of errors method. However, good estimates variances of the parameters B and A(sup *) could only be made when the starting slow crack growth equation was transformed and the coefficients of variation of the input parameters were not too large. This was partially a result of the skewered distributions of B and A(sup *). Parametric variation of the input parameters was used to determine an acceptable range for using closed form approximate equations derived from propagation of errors.

Salem, Jonathan A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Bipropellant rocket exhaust plume analysis on the Galileo spacecraft

This paper describes efforts to quantify the contaminant flow field produced by 10 N thrust bipropellant rocket engines used on the Galileo spacecraft. The prediction of the composition of the rocket exhaust by conventional techniques is found to be inadequate to explain experimental observations of contaminant deposition on moderately cold (200 K) surfaces. It is hypothesized that low volatility contaminants are formed by chemical reactions which occur on the surfaces. The flow field calculations performed using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method give the expected result that the use of line-of-sight plume shields may have very little effect on the flux of vapor phase contaminant species to a surface, especially if the plume shields are located so close to the engine that the interaction of the plume with the shield is in the transition flow regime. It is shown that significant variations in the exhaust plume composition caused by nonequilibrium effects in the flow field lead to very low concentrations of species which have high molecular weights in the more rarefied regions of the flow field. Recommendations for the design of spacecraft plume shields and further work are made.

Guernsey, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Simplified, Closed-Form Method for Screening Spacecraft Orbital Heating Variations

A closed-form analytical technique has been developed to screen orbital average heating variations as a function of beta angle, altitude, surface area, and surface optical properties. Using planetary view factor equations for surfaces parallel-to and normal-to the local vertical, a cylindrical umbral shadow approximation, and a simplified albedo flux model, heating rate equations are formulated and then integrated to obtain orbital average heating. The results are compared to detailed analytical predictions using Monte Carlo integration and an assessment of error is presented.

Rickman, S. L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Carbon Monitoring System Flux Estimation and Attribution: Impact of ACOS-GOSAT X(CO2) Sampling on the Inference of Terrestrial Biospheric Sources and Sinks

Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), we investigate the impact of JAXA Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite 'IBUKI' (GOSAT) sampling on the estimation of terrestrial biospheric flux with the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) estimation and attribution strategy. The simulated observations in the OSSE use the actual column carbon dioxide (X(CO2)) b2.9 retrieval sensitivity and quality control for the year 2010 processed through the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space algorithm. CMS-Flux is a variational inversion system that uses the GEOS-Chem forward and adjoint model forced by a suite of observationally constrained fluxes from ocean, land and anthropogenic models. We investigate the impact of GOSAT sampling on flux estimation in two aspects: 1) random error uncertainty reduction and 2) the global and regional bias in posterior flux resulted from the spatiotemporally biased GOSAT sampling. Based on Monte Carlo calculations, we find that global average flux uncertainty reduction ranges from 25% in September to 60% in July. When aggregated to the 11 land regions designated by the phase 3 of the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project, the annual mean uncertainty reduction ranges from 10% over North American boreal to 38% over South American temperate, which is driven by observational coverage and the magnitude of prior flux uncertainty. The uncertainty reduction over the South American tropical region is 30%, even with sparse observation coverage. We show that this reduction results from the large prior flux uncertainty and the impact of non-local observations. Given the assumed prior error statistics, the degree of freedom for signal is approx.1132 for 1-yr of the 74 055 GOSAT X(CO2) observations, which indicates that GOSAT provides approx.1132 independent pieces of information about surface fluxes. We quantify the impact of GOSAT's spatiotemporally sampling on the posterior flux, and find that a 0.7 gigatons of carbon bias in the global annual posterior flux resulted from the seasonally and diurnally biased sampling when using a diagonal prior flux error covariance.

biased sampling↗

NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel 2019 Characterization Test 14-Foot, 5.8 Percent Test Section Porosity

This paper presents methods and results of a measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The uncertainty analysis is based on data collected during a characterization test following major structural modifications to the facility and upgrades to the facility’s data and control systems. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described in this report. The Monte Carlo method of propagating uncertainty was selected to determine the uncertainty of calculated variables of interest. A description of the Monte Carlo method as applied for this analysis is provided. The primary variable of interest (VOI) for this facility is free stream Mach number. In addition to determining the uncertainty in Mach number, the uncertainty in free stream values of static pressure, total pressure, dynamic pressure, total temperature, static temperature, Reynolds number, and air speed were also calculated. Uncertainty results are presented as random (unpredictable variation in repeated measurements), systematic (potential offset between observed and true value), and total (random and systematic combined) uncertainty for Mach number. Systematic uncertainty results are presented for the other VOIs. Individual uncertainty sources are presented both dimensionally and as percent contributions to uncertainty in all VOIs, to aid in the identification of primary uncertainty sources.

Uncertainty Analysis↗

NASA NTRS1974

Selected reliability studies for the NERVA program

An investigation was made into certain methods of reliability analysis that are particularly suitable for complex mechanisms or systems in which there are many interactions. The methods developed were intended to assist in the design of such mechanisms, especially for analysis of failure sensitivity to parameter variations and for estimating reliability where extensive and meaningful life testing is not feasible. The system is modeled by a network of interconnected nodes. Each node is a state or mode of operation, or is an input or output node, and the branches are interactions. The network, with its probabilistic and time-dependent paths is also analyzed for reliability and failure modes by a Monte Carlo, computerized simulation of system performance.

Hoover, S. V.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Monte Carlo investigation of thrust imbalance of solid rocket motor pairs

The Monte Carlo method of statistical analysis is used to investigate the theoretical thrust imbalance of pairs of solid rocket motors (SRMs) firing in parallel. Sets of the significant variables are selected using a random sampling technique and the imbalance calculated for a large number of motor pairs using a simplified, but comprehensive, model of the internal ballistics. The treatment of burning surface geometry allows for the variations in the ovality and alignment of the motor case and mandrel as well as those arising from differences in the basic size dimensions and propellant properties. The analysis is used to predict the thrust-time characteristics of 130 randomly selected pairs of Titan IIIC SRMs. A statistical comparison of the results with test data for 20 pairs shows the theory underpredicts the standard deviation in maximum thrust imbalance by 20% with variability in burning times matched within 2%. The range in thrust imbalance of Space Shuttle type SRM pairs is also estimated using applicable tolerances and variabilities and a correction factor based on the Titan IIIC analysis.

Sforzini, R. H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variational Coupled Loads Analysis using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Time-domain coupled loads analysis (CLA)is used to determine the response of a launch vehicle and payload system to transient forces, such as liftoff, engine ignitions and shutdowns, jettison events, and atmospheric flight loads, such as buffet. CLA, using Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB)component models, is the accepted method for the establishment of design-level loads for launch systems. However, uncertainty in the component models flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty in the structural responses during launch is a significant concern because small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interactions can result in significant variations in system loads. Uncertainty quantification (UQ)is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. In this paper uncertainty is treated at the HCB component-model level. In an effort to account for model uncertainties and statistically bound their effect on CLA predictions, this work combines CLA with UQ in a process termed variational coupled loads analysis (VCLA). The modeling of uncertainty using a parametric approach, in which input parameters are represented by random variables, is common, but its major drawback is the resulting uncertainty is limited to the form of the nominal model. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. Model-form uncertainty can be represented using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory (RMT). In this work, UQ is performed using the hybrid parametric variation (HPV)method, which combines parametric with nonparametric uncertainty at the HCB component model level. The HPV method requires the selection of dispersion values for the HCB fixed-interface (FI)eigenvalues, and the HCB mass and stiffness matrices. The dispersions are based upon component test-analysis modal correlation results. During VCLA, random component models are assembled into an ensemble of random systems using a Monte Carlo (MC)approach. CLA is applied to each of the ensemble members to produce an ensemble of system-level responses for statistical analysis. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through its application to a buffet loads analysis of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)during the transonic regime fifty seconds after liftoff. Core stage (CS)section shears and moments are recovered, and statistics are computed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS1980

Assessment of risk due to the use of carbon fiber composites in commercial and general aviation

The development of a national risk profile for the total annual aircraft losses due to carbon fiber composite (CFC) usage through 1993 is discussed. The profile was developed using separate simulation methods for commercial and general aviation aircraft. A Monte Carlo method which was used to assess the risk in commercial aircraft is described. The method projects the potential usage of CFC through 1993, investigates the incidence of commercial aircraft fires, models the potential release and dispersion of carbon fibers from a fire, and estimates potential economic losses due to CFC damaging electronic equipment. The simulation model for the general aviation aircraft is described. The model emphasizes variations in facility locations and release conditions, estimates distribution of CFC released in general aviation aircraft accidents, and tabulates the failure probabilities and aggregate economic losses in the accidents.

Fiksel, J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

The Oort cloud and the Galaxy - Dynamical interactions

The results of recent dynamical studies of the Oort cloud and its interaction with the Galaxy are discussed. Various studies which used Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the evolution of comets in the Oort cloud and the manner in which they are injected into the planetary region are reviewed. Work done on perturbation of cometary orbits by stars, interstellar clouds, and the Galaxy is examined. The growing consensus that there is a massive inner Oort cloud with a population up to 100 times that of the dynamically active outer cloud is addressed. Variations on the Oort hypothesis are discussed. It is argued that speculations about the existence of a small unseen solar companion star or a tenth planet causing periodic comet showers from the inner Oort cloud are not supported by dynamical studies or analyses of the terrestrial and lunar cratering record. Evidence for Oort clouds around other stars is summarized.

Weissman, Paul R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Premixing quality and flame stability: A theoretical and experimental study

Models for predicting flame ignition and blowout in a combustor primary zone are presented. A correlation for the blowoff velocity of premixed turbulent flames is developed using the basic quantities of turbulent flow, and the laminar flame speed. A statistical model employing a Monte Carlo calculation procedure is developed to account for nonuniformities in a combustor primary zone. An overall kinetic rate equation is used to describe the fuel oxidation process. The model is used to predict the lean ignition and blow out limits of premixed turbulent flames; the effects of mixture nonuniformity on the lean ignition limit are explored using an assumed distribution of fuel-air ratios. Data on the effects of variations in inlet temperature, reference velocity and mixture uniformity on the lean ignition and blowout limits of gaseous propane-air flames are presented.

Radhakrishnan, K.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Collisional evolution of the mass-distribution spectrum of planetesimals. II

An investigation of conditions for the early growth of planetesimals through their mutual collisions using Monte Carlo technique is presented. Rebound, erosion, catastrophic breakup, and coagulation are considered, mean random velocity is assumed to vary with time, and growth of km-sized planetesimals is shown to occur only when they have the mechanical properties similar to iron meteorites. The formation time of several hundred-km sized planetesimals is much longer than previously reported by Greenberg (1978), and an expression was derived for the temporal variation of the mean mass.

Matsui, T.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Monte Carlo Analysis of the Thrust Imbalance for the RSRMV Booster During Both the Ignition Transient and Steady State Operation

This paper presents the results of statistical analyses performed to predict the thrust imbalance between two solid rocket motor boosters to be used on the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle. Two legacy internal ballistics codes developed for the Space Shuttle program were coupled with a Monte Carlo analysis code to determine a thrust imbalance envelope for the SLS vehicle based on the performance of 1000 motor pairs. Thirty three variables which could impact the performance of the motors during the ignition transient and thirty eight variables which could impact the performance of the motors during steady state operation of the motor were identified and treated as statistical variables for the analyses. The effects of motor to motor variation as well as variations between motors of a single pair were included in the analyses. The statistical variations of the variables were defined based on data provided by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center for the upgraded five segment booster and from the Space Shuttle booster when appropriate. The results obtained for the statistical envelope are compared with the design specification thrust imbalance limits for the SLS launch vehicle

Foster, Winfred A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Monte Carlo Analysis of the Thrust Imbalance for the Space Launch System Booster During Both the Ignition Transient and Steady State Operation

Foster, Winfred A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Orbit Determination Accuracy Analysis of the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission During Perigee Raise

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) will provide orbit determination and prediction support for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission during the missions commissioning period. The spacecraft will launch into a highly elliptical Earth orbit in 2015. Starting approximately four days after launch, a series of five large perigee-raising maneuvers will be executed near apogee on a nearly every-other-orbit cadence. This perigee-raise operations concept requires a high-accuracy estimate of the orbital state within one orbit following the maneuver for performance evaluation and a high-accuracy orbit prediction to correctly plan and execute the next maneuver in the sequence. During early mission design, a linear covariance analysis method was used to study orbit determination and prediction accuracy for this perigee-raising campaign. This paper provides a higher fidelity Monte Carlo analysis using the operational COTS extended Kalman filter implementation that was performed to validate the linear covariance analysis estimates and to better characterize orbit determination performance for actively maneuvering spacecraft in a highly elliptical orbit. The study finds that the COTS extended Kalman filter tool converges on accurate definitive orbit solutions quickly, but prediction accuracy through orbits with very low altitude perigees is degraded by the unpredictability of atmospheric density variation.

Determination↗

NASA NTRS2014

Orbit Determination Accuracy Analysis of the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission During Perigee Raise

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) will provide orbit determination and prediction support for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission during the mission's commissioning period. The spacecraft will launch into a highly elliptical Earth orbit in 2015. Starting approximately four days after launch, a series of five large perigee-raising maneuvers will be executed near apogee on a nearly every-other-orbit cadence. This perigee-raise operations concept requires a high-accuracy estimate of the orbital state within one orbit following the maneuver for performance evaluation and a high-accuracy orbit prediction to correctly plan and execute the next maneuver in the sequence. During early mission design, a linear covariance analysis method was used to study orbit determination and prediction accuracy for this perigee-raising campaign. This paper provides a higher fidelity Monte Carlo analysis using the operational COTS extended Kalman filter implementation that was performed to validate the linear covariance analysis estimates and to better characterize orbit determination performance for actively maneuvering spacecraft in a highly elliptical orbit. The study finds that the COTS extended Kalman filter tool converges on accurate definitive orbit solutions quickly, but prediction accuracy through orbits with very low altitude perigees is degraded by the unpredictability of atmospheric density variation.

Multiscale↗

NASA NTRS1977

Determination of three-dimensional radiative exchange factors for the Space Shuttle by Monte Carlo

A program was developed to predict radiative exchange factors in three-dimensional configurations with curved, specularly-reflecting surfaces using the Monte Carlo method. It was shown that this can be done efficiently by using the normal Monte Carlo method for closed configurations and/or high surface emissivities, while Energy Partitioning should be used for open configurations and/or low surface emissivities. Comparison with experiments on the Space Shuttle radiator panels showed that the simple model of gray, diffuse emission is sufficient for the prediction of exchange factors between actual (silver-coated teflon) surfaces. For solar-irradiation exchange factors on the Space Shuttle, on the other hand, spectral and directional variations of surface properties must be taken into account.

Modest, M. F.↗