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At least 181 records · Page 10

MAGSAT anomaly field inversion and interpretation for the US

Long wavelength anomalies in the total magnetic field measured by MAGSAT over the United States and adjacent areas are inverted to an equivalent layer crustal magnetization distribution. The model is based on an equal area dipole grid at the Earth's surface. Model resolution, defined as the closest dipole spacing giving a solution having physical significance, is about 220 km for MAGSAT data in the elevation range 300-500 km. The magnetization contours correlate well with large scale tectonic provinces. A higher resolution (200 km) model based on relatively noise free synthetic "pseudodata" is also presented. Magnetic anomaly component data measured by MAGSAT is compared with synthetic anomaly component fields arising from an equivalent source dipole array at the Earth's surface generated from total field anomaly data alone. An excellent inverse correlation between apparent magnetization and heat flow in the western U.S. is demonstrated. A regional heat flow map which is presented and compared with published maps, predicts high heat flow in Nebraska and the Dakotas, suggesting the presence of a "blind" geothermal area of regional extent.

Mayhew, M. A.↗

The Role of Low-Level, Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris Euphrates Headwaters

Rainfall variability in the Tigris Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (1983 - 2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days, when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

rainfall variability↗

Cross-Sensor Calibration of the GAI Long Range Detection Network

The long range component of the North American Lightning Detection Network has been providing experimental data products since July 1996, offering cloud-to-ground lightning coverage throughout the Atlantic and Western Pacific oceans, as well as south to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The network experiences a strong decrease in detection efficiency with range, which is also significantly modulated by differential propagation under day, night and terminator-crossing conditions. A climatological comparison of total lightning data observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and CG lightning observed by the long range network is conducted, with strict quality control and allowance for differential network performance before and after the activation of the Canadian Lightning Detection Network. This yields a first-order geographic estimate of long range network detection efficiency and its spatial variability. Intercomparisons are also performed over the continental US, allowing large scale estimates of the midlatitude climatological IC:CG ratio and its possible dependence on latitude.

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗

Satellite-Based Drought Reporting on the Navajo Nation

The Navajo Nation (NN) is the largest reservation in the US, and faces challenges related to water management during long-term and widespread drought episodes. The Navajo Nation is a federally recognized tribe, which has boundaries within Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. The Navajo Nation has a land area of over 70,000 square kilometers. The Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources (NNDWR) reports on drought and climatic conditions through the use of regional Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and a network of in-situ rainfall, streamflow, and climate data. However, these data sources lack the spatial detail and consistent measurements needed to provide a coherent understanding of the drought regime within the Nation's regional boundaries. This project, as part of NASA's Western Water Applications Office (WWAO), improves upon the recently developed Drought Severity Assessment Tool (DSAT) to ingest satellite-based precipitation data to generate SPI values for specific administrative boundaries within the reservation. The tool aims to: (1) generate SPI values and summary statistics for regions of interest on various timescales, (2) to visualize SPI values within a web-map application, and (3) produce maps and comparative statistical outputs in the format required for annual drought reporting. The co-development of the DSAT with NN partners is integral to increasing the sustained use of Earth Observations for water management applications. This tool will provide data to support the NN in allocation of drought contingency dollars to the regions most adversely impacted by declines in water availability.

Satellite-based↗

Large-Eddy Simulations of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Associated with Cold-Air Outbreaks during the ACTIVATE Campaign. Part II: Aerosol–Meteorology–Cloud Interaction

Aerosol effects on micro/macrophysical properties of marine stratocumulus clouds over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) are investigated using in situ measurements and large-eddy simulations (LES) for two cold-air outbreak (CAO) cases (28 February and 1 March 2020) during the Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). The LES is able to reproduce the vertical profiles of liquid water content (LWC), effective radius reff and cloud droplet number concentration Nc from fast cloud droplet probe (FCDP) in situ measurements for both cases. Furthermore, we show that aerosols affect cloud properties (N c , r eff , and LWC) via the prescribed bulk hygroscopicity of aerosols (¯k) and aerosol size distribution characteristics. N c , r eff , and liquid water path (LWP) are positively correlated to ¯κ and aerosol number concentration (N a ) while cloud fractional cover (CFC) is insensitive to ¯κ and aerosol size distributions for the two cases. The realistic changes to aerosol size distribution (number concentration, width, and the geometrical diameter) with the same meteorology state allow us to investigate aerosol effects on cloud properties without meteorological feedback. We also use the LES results to evaluate cloud properties from two reanalysis products, ERA5 and MERRA-2. Compared to LES, the ERA5 is able to capture the time evolution of LWP and total cloud coverage within the study domain during both CAO cases while MERRA-2 underestimates them.

Cloud forcing↗

Using a Genetic Algorithm to Model Broadband Regional Waveforms for Crustal Structure in the Western United States

In this study, we analyze regional seismograms to obtain the crustal structure in the eastern Great Basin and western Colorado plateau. Adopting a for- ward-modeling approach, we develop a genetic algorithm (GA) based parameter search technique to constrain the one-dimensional crustal structure in these regions. The data are broadband three-component seismograms recorded at the 1994-95 IRIS PASSCAL Colorado Plateau to Great Basin experiment (CPGB) stations and supplemented by data from U.S. National Seismic Network (USNSN) stations in Utah and Nevada. We use the southwestern Wyoming mine collapse event (M(sub b) = 5.2) that occurred on 3 February 1995 as the seismic source. We model the regional seismograms using a four-layer crustal model with constant layer parameters. Timing of teleseismic receiver functions at CPGB stations are added as an additional constraint in the modeling. GA allows us to efficiently search the model space. A carefully chosen fitness function and a windowing scheme are added to the algorithm to prevent search stagnation. The technique is tested with synthetic data, both with and without random Gaussian noise added to it. Several separate model searches are carried out to estimate the variability of the model parameters. The average Colorado plateau crustal structure is characterized by a 40-km-thick crust with velocity increases at depths of about 10 and 25 km and a fast lower crust while the Great Basin has approximately 35- km-thick crust and a 2.9-km-thick sedimentary layer.

Bhattacharyya, Joydeep↗

Alaska at the Crossroads of Migration: Space Based Ornithology

Understanding bird migration on a global scale is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Revolutionary advances in remote sensing now provide us with near real-time measurements of atmospheric and land surface conditions at high spatial resolution over entire continents. We use spatially-explicit, individual based bird migration models driven by numerical weather prediction models of atmospheric conditions, dynamic habitat suitability maps derived from remotely sensed land surface conditions, biophysiological models, and biological field data to simulate migration routes, timing, energy budgets, and survival of individual birds and populations. Long-distance migratory birds travel annually between breeding grounds in Alaska and wintering grounds in Latin Amierica. Approximately 25% of these species are potential vectors of Avian Influenza. Alaska is at the crossroads of Asian and New World migratory flyways and is likely to be a point of introduction of Asian H5N1 AI into the western hemisphere. If/when an infected bird is detected, a pressing question will be where was this bird several days ago, and where is it likely to go after it was released from the survey site? Answers to such questions will increase effectiveness of AI surveillance and mitigation measures. From a conservation perspective, Alaska's diverse landscape provides breeding sites for many migrants, and climatic and land surface changes along migratory flyways in the western hemisphere may reduce bird survival and physical condition upon arrival at Alaskan breeding territories, success and migrant populations.

Deppe, Jill↗

ENSO Mechanisms

This current leading theory of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon involves reflection of equatorial waves on the western ocean boundary to shift the ENSO phase from El Nino to La Nina and vice versa. However, recent satellite altimetry and In situ observations indicate that this theory has several flaws. These include imperfect equatorial wave reflection on the western ocean boundary, a maxima of the simulated coupled wind-sea surface temperature (SST) interaction located too far into the eastern equatorial Pacific, and an excessive role of thermocline displacement on SST in this region. We show that the central equatorial Pacific SST is fundamental in driving the EIVSO ocean-atmosphere coupled system, through the east-west displacement of the eastern edge of the warm pool, perfectly related with ENSO. Within the equatorial wave-guide, the dominance of surface zonal advection in these displacements is demonstrated with four different satellite and in situ data sets and three ocean models. This demonstration is supported by the evidence of a convergence of water masses into the eastern edge of the warm pool, resulting in a well-defined salinity front. All these results lead us to propose a notable modification of the leading delayed-action oscillator theory for the oscillatory nature of ENSO. Simulations with a linearized coupled ocean-atmosphere model result in 3-6 year ENSO-like oscillations, with many Of the variable model parameters found very close to their observed values. This simple model suggests that ocean processes ignored or underestimated in the delayed action oscillator theory, such as zonal current convergence, zonal advection of sea surface temperature and equatorial wave reflection from the eastern-ocean boundary, are fundamental to the development of ENSO, in particular to its manifestations in the central equatorial Pacific.

Picaut, Joel↗

Revisiting the Causes of the US Midwest Great Flood of 1993

The floods that occurred in the Midwest during the summer of 1993 remain one of the greatest flooding events in US history. While a considerable amount of work has already been done addressing its causes there still remain uncertainties as to the relative roles of forcing from the tropics and the extra-tropics as well as the extended nature of the excessive rainfall that lasted throughout much of the late spring and summer of that year. Here we use a novel “replay” technique in which the GEOS AGCM is constrained to remain close to the MERRA-2 reanalysis over specified regions of the globe to isolate the causes of the excessive rain. We show the main rainfall event in the upper Midwest in July (extending into August) was the result of the development of a large amplitude Rossby wave (and associated pronounced moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico) apparently forced by anomalous transient eddies in the western North Pacific. Rainfall that fell in the Midwest during the two months prior to that, while not as intense, acted to precondition the soil, with forcing from the tropics contributing to the May precipitation, while the excessive Midwest rain that fell during June was part of a record hemispheric-wide precipitation signal that appears to be linked to an unusually cold north polar stratosphere. The nature of the stratospheric impact and the possible delayed influence of the Pinatubo eruption is currently being assessed.

Midwest↗

Seven Years of Bright Meteor Data from the NASA All Sky Fireball Network

The NASA All Sky Fireball Network is a network consisting of 18 all-sky meteor cameras across the continental US. We present a data release of 33,660 bright meteors collected between 2013 and 2019. The released data consists of trajectory, orbit, radiant, shower association, and brightness. We discuss the camera hardware and software used to make the observations, the characteristics of the data, and known error sources. The camera hardware consists of Watec 902H2 Ultimate CCD cameras with a fish-eye lens giving an all-sky field of view. The data is complete until an absolute meteor magnitude of approximately -4, but meteors down to a magnitude of -1 are routinely observed. The cameras are spread across the continental United States in five subnetworks, with each network consisting of two to five cameras. The cameras report to a central server where the data is processed each morning. The network is modeled after the University of Western Ontario’s Southern Ontario Meteor Network. The cameras are running All-sky and Guided Real-time Detection (ASGARD) meteor detection software and analysis pipeline.

Aaron Kingery↗

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Sea surface salinity (SSS) observations from space allow us to investigate if improved estimates of near-surface density stratification and associated mixing can positively impact seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as dynamical ENSO forecasts. For the first part of the presentation, we utilize our intermediate-complexity coupled model. Baseline experiments assimilate satellite sea level (multi-satellite gridded AVISO, 2013), SST (Reynolds et al., 2004), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (GTSPP NODC, 2006). These baseline experiments are then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (V5.0 Lilly and Lagerloef, 2008) and SMAP (V4.0 Fore et al., 2016) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from September 2011 to September 2017. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. This pattern enhances air/sea interaction and amplifies the equatorial Kelvin wave signal. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation over most forecast lead times. We next assess how different satellite SSS products impact the validation of ENSO forecasts. SMAP V4 reduces the salty bias in the western Pacific and so is an improvement upon SMAP V2 and SMOS V2 (Boutin et al., 2017) has similar validation characteristics as a combination of Aquarius and SMAP V4. Next we shift to present results from the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S_v2.1) production coupled model (i.e. the same model that contributes ENSO forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Experiment). From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. We will present distinct experiments for the overlap period that include 1) freely evolving SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS as the production system), 2) Aquarius, and 3) SMAP initialization. Our results show that using Aquarius slightly improves validation of the reanalysis (including sea level and temperature statistics). Our production system without SSS assimilation generated too warm forecasts for the 2015 El Nino from March initial conditions. Incorporating Aquarius into initialization of the coupled system leads to a deeper, more realistic MLD that acts to damp the downwelling Kelvin signal and slightly cool NINO3.4 SST. With Aquarius the forecasts better match the observed amplitude of the 2015 event. On the other hand, SMAP V2 relaxation generally degrades validation statistics. At forecast initialization, SMAP is much too salty within 10o of the equator, leading to deeper MLD east of 165W. This deeper MLD leads to over-damping of the downwelling signal (i.e. relative upwelling), in turn leading to relatively too cool ENSO forecasts.

Hackert, E.↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Use of Communications Sources: An Intercultural Investigation of Practices in the US and Russia

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of U.S./Russian cultural differences in communications among scientists and engineers in applied technology industries. This is important because the advent of perestroika, the breakup of the Soviet Union, and massive moves toward privatization make Russia a potential partner in economic endeavors and, at the same time, a possible competitor in the international arena. Unfortunately the results of U.S./Soviet collaborative endeavors have not always met with expectations. Since 1987, when the former USSR adopted a law on joint ventures, evidence has emerged as to the causes of many failures of these cooperative arrangements. While international strategic alliances face many structural barriers, failures of these cooperative ventures have often resulted from a lack of understanding of the more intangible barrier of major differences in cultural environments between the partners (Cattaneo, 1992). Cultural differences not only affect business operations but also raise questions for scholars and practitioners who have advocated that U.S. management theories apply abroad. Boyacigiller and Adler (1991), Doktor, Tung, and Von Glinow (1991), and Hofstede (1993) observed that most U.S. scholars have continued to export management concepts and practices abroad assuming the concepts were universally valid despite the fact that Western organizational theory has placed little emphasis on factors such as history, social setting, culture, and government (Boyacigiller & Adler, 1991). High technology industries such as aerospace, which includes the cormmercial aviation segment, have characteristics that make the industry an excellent platform to study cultural implications for technical communications. The investigation of this group is worthwhile for several reasons. First, high technology industries are becoming more international and more engaged in collaborative endeavors. Second, the industries are highly dependent on effective innovation diffusion which, according to Fischer (1979), is essentially information exchange. And, third, studies of innovative project management have found that information availability was a critical factor in project success or failure (e.g., Link & Zmud, 1987; Tushman, 1978, 1979). We propose that a gap in the literature exists that centers on whether U.S. paradigms of commnunications behavior apply to other cultures. First, we will explore early findings in the U.S. that held that the choice of an information source was a function of the 'law of least effort' rather than quality (e.g., Allen, 1977; Cuinan, 1983; DeWhirst, 1971; Hardy, 1982; O'Reilly, 1982; Rosenberg, 1967). Second, we will explore the contingency approaches such as that of Tushman (1979) and the later work of Daft and Lengel (1984, 1987), Huber and Daft (1987) and Lengel and Daft (1988) who held that information choice was a function of the nature of the task at hand. A third issue to be addressed is the confounding problem of presumed differences between scientists and engineers in information gathering behavior (Allen, 1977). Finally, we will investigate whether cultural differences cast doubt on the applicability of findings from U.S. situations to other cultures.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

Health and Safety Effects of Airborne Soil Dust in the Americas and Beyond

Risks associated with dust hazards are often underappreciated, a gap between the knowledge pool and public awareness that can be costly for impacted communities. This study reviews the emission sources and chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of airborne soil particles (dust) and their effects on human and environmental health and safety in the Pan-American region. American dust originates from both local sources (western United States, northern Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) and long-range transport from Africa and Asia. Dust properties, as well as the trends and interactions with criteria air pollutants, are summarized. Human exposure to dust is associated with adverse health effects, including asthma, allergies, fungal infections, and premature death. In the Americas, a well-documented and striking effect of soil dust is its association with Coccidioidomycosis, commonly known as Valley fever, an infection caused by inhalation of soil-dwelling fungi unique to this region. Besides human health, dust affects environmental health through nutrients that increase phytoplankton biomass, contaminants that diminish water supply and affect food (crops/fruits/vegetables and ready-to-eat meat), spread crop and marine pathogens, cause Valley fever among domestic and wild animals, transport heavy metals, radionuclides and microplastics, and reduce solar and wind power generation. Dust is also a safety hazard to road transportation and aviation, in the southwestern US where blowing dust is one of the deadliest weather hazards. To mitigate the harmful effects, coordinated regional and international efforts are needed to enhance dust observations and prediction capabilities, soil conservation measures, and Valley fever and other disease surveillance.

health↗

Alaska Crustal Deformation: Finite Element Modeling Constrained by Geologic and Very Long Baseline Interferometry Data

We compute crustal motions in Alaska by calculating the finite element solution for an elastic spherical shell problem. The method we use allows the finite element mesh to include faults and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) baseline rates of change. Boundary conditions include Pacific-North American (PA-NA) plate motions. The solution is constrained by the oblique orientation of the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte strike-slip faults relative to the PA-NA relative motion direction and the oblique orientation from normal convergence of the eastern Aleutian trench fault systems, as well as strike-shp motion along the Denali and Totschunda fault systems. We explore the effects that a range of fault slip constraints and weighting of VLBI rates of change has on the solution. This allows us to test the motion on faults, such as the Denali fault, where there are conflicting reports on its present-day slip rate. We find a pattern of displacements which produce fault motions generally consistent with geologic observations. The motion of the continuum has the general pattern of radial movement of crust to the NE away from the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte fault systems in SE Alaska and Canada. This pattern of crustal motion is absorbed across the Mackenzie Mountains in NW Canada, with strike-slip motion constrained along the Denali and Tintina fault systems. In south central Alaska and the Alaska forearc oblique convergence at the eastern Aleutian trench and the strike-shp motion of the Denali fault system produce a counterclockwise pattern of motion which is partially absorbed along the Contact and related fault systems in southern Alaska and is partially extruded into the Bering Sea and into the forearc parallel the Aleutian trench from the Alaska Peninsula westward. Rates of motion and fault slip are small in western and northern Alaska, but the motions we compute are consistent with the senses of strike-slip motion inferred geologically along the Kaltag, Kobuk Trench, and Thompson Creek faults and with the normal faulting observed in NW Alaska near Nome. The nonrigid behavior of our finite element solution produces patterns of motion that would not have been expected from rigid block models: strike-slip faults can exist in a continuum that has motion mostly perpendicular to their strikes, and faults can exhibit along-strike differences in magnitudes and directions.

Lundgren, Paul↗

A 7.5-Year Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Surface Turbulent Fluxes Over Global Oceans

The surface turbulent fluxes of momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat over global oceans are essential to weather, climate and ocean problems. Wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation, while Evaporation is a key component of hydrological cycle and surface heat budget. We have produced a 7.5-year (July 1987-December 1994) dataset of daily, individual monthly-mean and climatological (1988-94) monthly-mean surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans from measurements of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board the US Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F8, F10, and F11 satellites. It has a spatial resolution of 2.0x2.5 latitude-longitude. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from daily data of SSM/I surface winds and specific humidity, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sea surface temperatures, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) air-sea temperature differences, using a stability-dependent bulk scheme. The retrieved instantaneous surface air humidity (with a 25-km resolution) IS found to be generally accurate as compared to the collocated radiosonde observations over global oceans. The surface wind speed and specific humidity (latent heat flux) derived from the F10 SSM/I are found to be -encrally smaller (larger) than those retrieved from the F11 SSM/I. The F11 SSM/I appears to have slightly better retrieval accuracy for surface wind speed and humidity as compared to the F10 SSM/I. This difference may be due to the orbital drift of the F10 satellite. The daily wind stresses and latent heat fluxes retrieved from F10 and F11 SSM/Is show useful accuracy as verified against the research quality in si -neasurerrients (IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma) in the western Pacific warm pool during the TOGA COARE Intensive observing period (November 1992-February 1993). The 1988-94 seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes and input variables derived from FS and F11 SSM/Is show reasonable patterns related to seasonal variations of atmospheric general circulation. This dataset of SSM/I-derived turbulent fluxes is useful for climate studies, forcing of ocean models, and validation of coupled ocean-atmosphere global models and can be accessed through the NASA/GSFC Distributed Active Archive Center.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

Use of Current 2010 Forest Disturbance Monitoring Products for the Conterminous United States in Aiding a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

This presentation discusses contributions of near real time (NRT) MODIS forest disturbance detection products for the conterminous United States to an emerging national forest threat early warning system (EWS). The latter is being developed by the USDA Forest Service s Eastern and Western Environmental Threat Centers with help from NASA Stennis Space Center and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Building off work done in 2009, this national and regional forest disturbance detection and viewing capability of the EWS employs NRT MODIS NDVI data from the USGS eMODIS group and historical NDVI data from standard MOD13 products. Disturbance detection products are being computed for 24 day composites that are refreshed every 8 days. Products for 2010 include 42 dates of the 24 day composites. For each compositing date, we computed % change in forest maximum NDVI products for 2010 with respect to each of three historical baselines of 2009, 2007-2009, and 2003-2009,. The three baselines enable one to view potential current, recent, and longer term forest disturbances. A rainbow color table was applied to each forest change product so that potential disturbances (NDVI drops) were identified in hot color tones and growth (NDVI gains) in cold color tones. Example products were provided to end-users responsible for forest health monitoring at the Federal and State levels. Large patches of potential forest disturbances were validated based on comparisons with available reference data, including Landsat and field survey data. Products were posted on two internet mapping systems for US Forest Service internal and collaborator use. MODIS forest disturbance detection products were computed and posted for use in as little as 1 day after the last input date of the compositing period. Such products were useful for aiding aerial disturbance detection surveys and for assessing disturbance persistence on both inter- and intra-annual scales. Multiple 2010 forest disturbance events were detected across the nation, including damage from ice storms, tornadoes, caterpillars, bark beetles, and wildfires. This effort enabled improved NRT forest disturbance monitoring capabilities for this nation-wide forest threat EWS.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

An Evaluation of Teleconnections Over the United States in an Ensemble of AMIP Simulations with the MERRA-2 Configuration of the GEOS Atmospheric Model

The atmospheric general circulation model that is used in NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) is evaluated with respect to the relationship between large-scale teleconnection patterns and daily temperature and precipitation over the United States (US) using a ten-member ensemble of simulations, referred to as M2AMIP. A focus is placed on four teleconnection patterns that are known to influence weather and climate in the US: El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American Pattern. The monthly and seasonal indices associated with the patterns are correlated with daily temperature and precipitation statistics including: (i) monthly mean 2 m temperature and precipitation, (ii) the frequency of extreme temperature events at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and (iii) the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events classified at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles.Correlations obtained with M2AMIP data and thus the strength of teleconnections in the free-running model are evaluated through comparison against corresponding correlations computed from observations and from MERRA-2. Overall, the strongest teleconnections in all datasets occur during the winter and coincide with the largest agreement between the observations, MERRA-2, and M2AMIP. When M2AMIP does capture the correlation seen in observations, there is a tendency for the spatial extent to be exaggerated. The weakest agreement between the data sources, for all teleconnection patterns, is in the correlation with extreme precipitation; however there are discrepancies between the datasets in the number of days with at least 1 mm of precipitation: M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the Northwest and the Northern Great Plains and too many days in the Northeast. In JJA, M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the western two-thirds of the country and too many days with precipitation along the east coast.

JJA↗

[Analysis of Multiplatform CO (Carbon Monoxide) Measurements During Trace-P Mission]

Carbon monoxide is considered mission critical (TRACE-P NRA) because it is one of the gases involved in controlling the oxidizing power of the atmosphere and, as a tracer gas, is valuable in interpreting mission data sets. Carbon monoxide exhibits interannual differences, suggesting relatively short-term imbalances in sources and sinks. Sources of CO are dominated by fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning, and the photochemical oxidation of CH4 and nonmethane hydrocarbons while reaction with OH is believed to be the major sink for atmospheric CO, with additional losses due to soil uptake. Uncertainties in the magnitude and distribution of both sources and sinks remain fairly large however, and additional data are required to refine the global budget. Seasonal changes and a northern hemispheric latitudinal gradient have been described for a variety of Pacific basin sites through long-term monitoring of surface background levels. Latitudinal variations have also recently been described at upper tropospheric altitudes over a multi-year period by. TRACE-P will provide an aircraft survey of CO over the northern Pacific in the northern spring when CO concentrations are at their seasonal maximum in the northern hemisphere (NH) and at their seasonal minimum in the southern hemisphere (SH). Previous GTE missions, Le., PEM West-B and PEM Tropics-B, ground-based, and satellite observations (MAPS, April 1994) give us a general picture of the distribution of CO over the northern Pacific during this season. Based on these measurements, background CO levels over remote ocean areas are anticipated to be in the range of 110 - 180 ppbv, while those closer to the Asian continent may rise as high as 600 ppbv. These measurements also reveal high spatial variability (both horizontal and vertical) as well as temporal variations in CO over the area planned for the TRACE-P mission. This variability is a result of multiple CO sources, the meteorological complexity of transport processes, and the photochemical aging of air masses. The influence of biomass burning in the southern Pacific should be relatively small since the mission coincides with the southern tropical wet season when agricultural burning is at its seasonal low. The proposed CO measurements taken during TRACE-P should therefore largely be a function of the impact of various NH sources, primarily Asian and predominantly fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. These processes are also major sources of many other atmospheric pollutants, consequently making accurate and precise CO measurements is one of the highest TRACE-P priorities [TRACE-P NRA]. The TRACE-P mission emphasizes the dual objectives of assessing the magnitude of the transport of chemically and radiatively important gases such as CO from Asia to the western Pacific, and determining how emissions change and are modified during this transport.

Pougatchev, Nikita S.↗