Predicting canopy height from commercial satellite imagery [Slides]
Abstract not provided.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
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Cheatgrass Mitigation Program on the Nevada National Security Site
Presentation for the Nevada Chapter of The Wildlife Society 2024 Science Symposium describing the cheatgrass mitigation program on the NNSS including herbicide and seeding treatments.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Assessing Indoor versus Outdoor PM 2.5 Concentrations during the 2025 Los Angeles Fires Using the PurpleAir Sensor Network
In January 2025, a series of fast-moving wildland-urban-interface (WUI) fires swept through the Los Angeles (LA) metropolitan area, causing severe air pollution. While the impacts of WUI fires on outdoor air quality have been extensively studied, indoor exposure remains less understood, despite most people sheltering indoors during WUI fires. Here, this study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of indoor and outdoor PM 2.5 concentrations across the South Coast Air Basin, with a focus on LA County during the LA fires. Using high-resolution data from co-located indoor and outdoor PurpleAir (PA) sensors, we analyze hourly PM 2.5 levels and indoor/outdoor ratios. Outdoor PM 2.5 concentrations spiked sharply during the fires, reaching unhealthy levels exceeding 130 μg/m 3 , compared to the mean concentration (12 μg/m 3 ) during non-fire hours. Indoor concentrations also increased, though to a lesser extent, peaking around 60 μg/m 3 compared to a mean of 7 μg/m 3 during non-fire hours. This reflects the partial shielding that indoor environments provide from outdoor air pollution. The mean (0.42) and median (0.29) indoor/outdoor PM 2.5 ratios during LA fire hours were lower than the mean (0.93) and median (0.66) ratios during non-fire hours. Indoor/outdoor PM 2.5 ratios across sensors showed a wide distribution, reflecting differences in building characteristics and occupant behavior, such as indoor activities and the use of air purifiers. These findings emphasize the need for guidance and interventions to reduce indoor PM 2.5 exposure and protect public health during extreme WUI fire events.
2025 Los Angeles Fires↗
Trends in Fire Danger and Population Exposure along the Wildland–Urban Interface
Not provided.
Engineering↗
Biomass Burning Emissions in the Cerrado of Brazil Computed with Remote Sensing Data and GIS
Biomass burnin is a common force in much of the developing tropical world where it has wide-ranging environmental impacts. Fire is a component of tropical deforestation and is 0 p often used to clear broad expanses of land for shifting agriculture and cattle ranching. Frequent burning in the tropical savannas is a distinct problem from that of primary forest. In Brazil, most of the burning occurs in the cerrado which occupies approximately 1,800,000 km2, primarily on the great plateau in central Brazil. Wildland and agricultural fires are dramatic sources of regional air pollution in central Brazil. Biomass burning is an important source of a large number of trace gases including greenhouse gases and other chemically active species. Knowledge of trace gas emissions from biomass burning in Brazil is limited by a number of factors, most notably relative emission factors for gases from specific fire types/fuels and accurate estimates of temporal and spatial distribution and extent of fire activity. Estimates of trace gas emissions during September 1992 will be presented that incorporates a digital map of vegetation classes, pyrogenic emission factors calculated from ground and aircraft missions, and Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) fire products derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. The regional emissions calculated from National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) AVHRR estimates of fire activity will provide an independent estimate for comparison with results obtained by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry Near the Equator - Atlantic (TRACE-A) experiments.
Guild, Liane S.↗
Advancing wildfire modeling for improved fire behavior understanding [Slides]
Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI): Region where houses meet or overlap the wildland vegetation. Buffer distance: distance between flammable vegetation and human settlements.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Wildland–urban interface wildfire increases metal contributions to stormwater runoff in Paradise, California
The 2018 Camp Fire was a large late-year (November) wildfire that produced an urban firestorm in the Town of Paradise, California, USA, and destroyed more than 18 000 structures. Runoff from burned wildland areas is known to contain ash, which can transport contaminants including metals into nearby watersheds. However, due to historically infrequent occurrences, the effect of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires, such as the Camp Fire, on surface water quality has not been well-characterized. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of widespread urban burning on surface water quality in major watersheds of the Camp Fire area. Between November 2018 and May 2019, 140 surface water samples were collected, including baseflow and stormflow, from burned and unburned watersheds with varying extent of urban development. Samples were analyzed for total and filter-passing metals, dissolved organic carbon, major anions, and total suspended solids. Ash and debris from the Camp Fire contributed metals to downstream watersheds via runoff throughout the storm season. Increases in concentration up to 200-fold were found for metals Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn in burned watersheds compared to pre-fire values. Total concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn exceeded EPA aquatic habitat acute criteria by up to 16-fold for up to five months after the fire. To assess possible transport mechanisms and bioavailability, a subset of 18 samples was analyzed using four filters with nominal pore sizes ranging from 0.22 to 1.2 μm to determine the particulate size distribution of metals. Trace and major metals (Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were found mostly associated with larger grain sizes (>0.45 μm), and some metals (Al, Cr, Fe, and Pb) also included a substantial colloidal phase (0.22 to 0.45 μm). This study suggests that fires in the wildland–urban interface increase metal concentrations, mainly through particulate driven transport. The metals with the largest increases are likely from anthropogenic disaster materials, though biomass ash also is a major contributor to water quality. In conclusion, the increase in metals following WUI burning may have adverse ecological impacts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Megafires: A New Fire Paradigm [Slides]
Twenty-five years ago LANL started a wildfire modeling effort with Rodman Linn to help educate firefighters. This work led to the development of HIGRAD-FIRETEC that has been used to examine a range of fires, controlled burns, and forest management. Rodman Linn and Mike Brown have recently developed QUIC-FIRE for DoD applications and wildland firefighters. HIGRAD-FIRETEC is currently being used to examine a variety of large fires including megafires.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Planar Strain-Rate-Free Diffusion Flames: Initiation, Properties, and Extinction
An effectively strain-rate-free diffusion flame constitutes the most vigorous laminar combustion of initially unmixed reactive gases. Such a diffusion flame is characterized by a relatively long residence time and by a relatively large characteristic length scale. If such a flame were also planar, providing high symmetry, it would be particularly suitable for experimental and theoretical investigations of key combustion phenomena, such as multicomponent diffusion, chemical kinetics, and soot inception, growth, and oxidation. Unfortunately, a planar strain-rate-free diffusion flame is highly disrupted in earth-gravity (e.g., in a counterflow-diffusion-flame apparatus) because of the very rapid onset (approx. 100 ms) of gravity-induced instability. Accordingly, a specially dedicated apparatus was designed, fabricated, and initially checked out for the examination of a planar strain-rate-free diffusion flame in microgravity. Such a diffusion flame may be formed within a hollowed-out squat container (initially configured as 25 cm x 25 cm x 9 cm), with isothermal, noncatalytic, impervious walls. At test initiation, a thin metallic sheet (approx. 1 mm in thickness) that separates the internal volume into two equal portions, each of dimensions 25 cm x 25 cm x 4.5 cm, is withdrawn, by uniform translation (approx. 50 cm/s) in its own plane, through a tightly fitting slit in one side wall. Thereupon, diluted fuel vapor (initially confined to one half-volume of the container) gains access to diluted oxygen (initially with the same pressure, density, and temperature as the fuel, but initially confined to the other half-volume). After a brief delay (approx. 10 ms), to permit limited but sufficient-for-flammability diffusional interpenetration of fuel vapor and oxidizer, burning is initiated by discharge of a line igniter, located along that side wall from which the trailing edge of the separator withdraws. The ignition spawns a triple-flame propagation across the 25 cm x 25 cm centerplane. When a diffusion flame is emplaced in the centerplane, any subsequent travel, and change in temperature, of that planar diffusion flame may be tracked, along with the effectively spatially uniform but temporally evolving pressure within the container. Eventually, nearly complete depletion of the stoichiometrically deficient reactant, along with heat loss to the container surfaces, effects extinction. These data afford an opportunity to check theoretical models of diffusion and chemical kinetics under conditions ranging from intense burning to flame out, or, alternatively, to evolve simple empirical representations of these phenomena. Thus, the project sought to utilize microgravity testing to elucidate commonly encountered phenomenology, arising in the commonly-encountered mode of combustion (whether related to heating, manufacturing, boiling, and propulsion, or to uncontrolled, free-burning fire in structures and wildland vegetation), of those commonly utilized fuels usually categorized as gaseous fuels (such as hydrogen, natural gas, and propane, which are gaseous under atmospheric conditions).
Fendell, Francis↗
Exemplifying the Usability of NASA Earth Observations to Analyze Potential Risk Factors that Predispose Wildfires in the Rural-Urban Areas of Córdoba, Argentina
In recent years, Córdoba, Argentina has experienced intensified wildfire activity, with fires in 2020 alone scorching over 300,000 hectares within the province. Potential causes for the increased burn area include climate change, the expanding wildland-urban interface, and inadequate fire management practices. Previous studies have produced fire frequency maps for the region, but gaps remain in understanding the parameters influencing fire behavior and growth. This project partnered with the Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria to address these gaps by utilizing NASA’s remote sensing capabilities to analyze key wildfire risk factors. Using a combination of data inputs from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and Aqua/Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), a ten-year baseline was created using environmental variables to determine anomalies that influenced the fires of 2020. Of these anomalies, the baseline data were used to calculate the statistical significance of the environmental factors to the wildfires. This study found that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation were the strongest indicators for the September 2020 wildfires. Using the environmental risk factors, this project created a wildfire risk map for the province of Córdoba, which can be used to enhance partner’s fire management strategies and decision-making processes.
Chassety Raines↗
A Fire Community Observatory: Interdisciplinary, AI-informed Post-Fire Rapid Response for Improved Water Cycle Science at Watershed Scale
Wildfire is an ecological disturbance that disrupts the hydrological cycle. In the past few years, a record number of multiple-and-compounding fires have occurred across urban-wildland gradients in the Western United States. Changes to watershed hydrological partitioning in response to fires (infiltration, runoff, evapotranspiration) presents unprecedented challenges to “Water-in-the-West” through negative impacts to water supply and its quality, and is a direct threat to downstream communities, groundwater, and drinking water supply infrastructure. While much work is being done to advance Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) use during fires for emergency response (i.e. predict fire movement, direct evacuations), significant potential exists to use AI/ML to address three scientific grand challenges that are rarely addressed in a convergent science context: 1) how to enhance the potential resiliency of a landscape before fire(s), 2) how to cost-effectively and optimally monitor watershed changes after fires, and 3) how to predict future hydrological and biogeochemical trajectories in fire-impacted watershed given climate change. This whitepaper addresses DOE Focal Area 1: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Chaparral vegetation reflectance and its potential utility for assessment of fire hazard
Current methods for assessment of ignition potential often fail to alert wildland managers to the severity of drought-induced fire hazard at remote locations and over large geographic areas. After the severe fires of 1988 in the western United States, the need was heightened for improved fire hazard assessment techniques. Chaparral vegetation is particularly receptive to recurring drought-related episodes of extreme fire hazard and was thus chosen for study here. Demonstrated herein is that chaparral vegetation has considerably different reflecting properties at different levels of drought stress. As such, remote sensing may have utility for fire hazard assessment in this vegetation type.
Cohen, Warren B.↗
Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion
During one of the warmest and driest droughts of the last century, the southern Appalachian Mountains experienced a regional outbreak of over a dozen large wildfires in late fall of 2016. We provide a synthesis of long-term forest changes leading up to the 2016 wildfires, examine the climatic setting and patterns of burn severity in relationship to topography, and discuss the ecological and management implications of these and future fires. During the pre- and post-European settlement periods, frequent low- and mixed-severity wildfires interacted with complex topographic gradients and maintained heterogenous landscapes dominated by several species of oak (Quercus spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and the American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Land-use changes associated with European settlement, loss of the American chestnut, and 20th century fire exclusion resulted in large scale shifts towards mesic, fire-intolerant species (i.e. mesophication). Wildfire activity began increasing in the early 1980s, but most fires in the region are small (<1,000 ha). In Fall of 2016, deciduous tree leaf fall occurred concurrently with a period of anomalously dry and warm weather, creating ideal conditions for fire ignition and spread. Thousands of ignitions across the region strained suppression resources and eight fires grew to greater than 5,000 ha. The 2016 fires were larger and burned more area than in the previous three decades combined. In one unique landscape setting, the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, a synoptic wind event drove extreme fire behavior and burned large, high-severity patches resulting in devastating effects in the wildland urban interface. However, immediate post-fire burn severity mosaics for other fires were composed primarily of low- (73 %) and moderate-severity (21 %) fire effects. High-severity fire comprised only 6 % of the area burned, and occurred mostly on steep upper slopes and ridges on south-facing aspects, reflecting the importance of bottom-up topographic drivers in this region. Although the fires will likely enhance biodiversity by restoring fire-dependent species and creating early seral habitat, invasions of non-native plant species, delayed mortality of mature pines and oaks, and rapid re-sprouting of pyrophyllic shrubs pose significant management challenges. Although similar large fire outbreaks may become more common under future climatic conditions, they are unlikely to reverse the effects of mesophication and significantly alter forest dynamics at broad spatial scales. Furthermore, the 2016 fires exposed the vulnerability of the region to wildfire during acute fall drought and demonstrate the potential ecological effects of future wildfires in mixed pine-hardwood landscapes of the southern Appalachians.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California
Previous research has examined individual factors contributing to wildfire risk, but the compounding effects of these factors remain underexplored. Here, we introduce the “Integrated Human-centric Wildfire Risk Index (IHWRI)” to quantify the compounding effects of fire-weather intensification and anthropogenic factors—including ignitions and human settlement into wildland—on wildfire risk. While climatic trends increased the frequency of high-risk fire-weather by 2.5-fold, the combination of this trend with wildland-urban interface expansion led to a 4.1-fold increase in the frequency of conditions conducive to extreme-impact wildfires from 1990 to 2022 across California. More than three-quarters of extreme-impact wildfires—defined as the top 20 largest, most destructive, or deadliest events on record—originated within 1 km from the wildland-urban interface. The deadliest and most destructive wildfires—90% of which were human-caused—primarily occurred in the fall, while the largest wildfires—56% of which were human-caused—mostly took place in the summer. By integrating human activity and climate change impacts, we provide a holistic understanding of human-centric wildfire risk, crucial for policy development.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal response to fire and urbanization in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park
Wildfires are increasing in frequency and intensity as drier and warmer climates increase plant detrital fuel loads. At the same time, increases in urbanization position 9% of fire-prone land within the United States at the wildland–urban interface. While rarely studied, the compounded effects of urbanization and wildfires may have unknown synergistically negative effects on ecosystems. Previous studies at the wildland–urban interface often focus on aboveground plant communities, but belowground ecosystems may also be affected by this double disturbance. In particular, it is unclear how much fire and urbanization independently or interactively affect nutritional symbioses such as those between arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and the majority of terrestrial plants. In November 2016, extreme drought conditions and long-term fire suppression combined to create a wildfire within the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and the neighboring exurban city of Gatlinburg, TN. To understand how the double disturbance of urbanization and fire affected AM fungal communities, we collected fine roots from the 5 dominant understory species in September 2018 at each of 18 sites spanning 3 burn severities in both exurban and natural sites. Despite large variation in burn severity, plant species identity had the largest influence on AM fungi. AM fungal colonization, richness, and composition all varied most among plant species. Fire and urbanization did influence some AM fungal metrics; colonization was lower in burned sites and composition was more variable among exurban locations. There were no interactions among burn severity and urbanization on AM fungi. Our results point to the large influence of plant species identity structuring this obligate nutritional symbiosis regardless of disturbance regime. Therefore, the majority of AM fungal taxa may be buffered from fire-induced ecosystem changes if plant community composition largely remains intact, plant species life history traits allow for AM fungal persistence after fire disturbance, and/or nearby undisturbed habitat can act as an inoculum source for recolonization following fires. Thus, it is critical to maintain natural, undisturbed habitats interspersed within the wildland–urban interface.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Future Pathways for Arctic Forest Fires
Wildfires are expected to become more common and more severe in the Arctic states due to climate change. Main cause for the fires is human activity, even in the boreal and Arctic forests. Therefore, activities such forest management and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness, can have a significant impact on future wildfire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of these factors we have created pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 for the Arctic states. We explore high and low fire activity and risk pathways for all the Arctic states and suggest most our best guess pathways for each state separately. The low activity and fire risk pathway assumes active fire suppression via population participation and official land management, efficient fuel treatments to reduce fire risk, and active firefighting. The high activity and fire risk pathway assumes the opposite due to lack of government and community response, with addition of lacking response to climate-driven changes to wildfire risks. In the Nordic countries, human ignition sources, such as timber extraction, tourism, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In addition to these in Canada and Alaska, expansion of agriculture increases the likelihood of open burning of agricultural waste, increasing risk of the fire spreading to wildlands. Drier fuels due to climate change increase the risk of fires, and there is a growing risk of extreme heat conditions, creating favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra (specifically grassland) fires, with potential to occur in hard-to-reach locations for firefighting. In short, policy actions and education play a crucial role in future wildfire management and adaptation.
Future↗
The composition of gases from a diffusion flame above longleaf pine needle fuel beds
The gas and tar composition of a diffusion flame from longleaf pine needles is currently poorly understood and more data are needed to fill in the gap between pyrolysis data and smoke plume data, thus improving physical and chemical modeling of wildland smoke formation. A pilot experiment to measure light gas and tar composition of such a flame is described for three flame regions: persistent flame (flame base), intermittent flame, and smoke plume. Flame gases from 24 experimental fires were collected in canisters and analyzed using EPA method TO-14A for CO 2 , CO, H 2 , CH 4 , and C 2 to C 7 hydrocarbon gases. Condensed gas (tar) samples were collected and analyzed using GC/MS. Other light gases were measured using FTIR spectroscopy. Results from compositional data analysis suggest significant differences in (relative) concentration of compounds detected in the three regions of the flame. Statistical tests for differences in flame zones were performed using the canister data: Concentration of hydrocarbons relative to CO and CO 2 decreased from the persistent flame zone above the pyrolyzing needles through the intermittent flame region into the flame-free plume. This was likely due to both chemical reactions (oxidation) occurring in the flame as well as the introduction of air into the flame/plume by entrainment.
Biomass↗
Mapping Fire Scars in the Brazilian Cerrado Using AVHRR Imagery
The Brazilian cerrado, or savanna, spans an area of 1,800,000 square kilometers on the great plateau of Central Brazil. Large fires covering hundreds of square kilometers, frequently occur in wildland areas of the cerrado, dominated by grasslands or grasslands mixed with shrubs and small trees, and also within area in the cerrado used for agricultural purposes, particularly for grazing. Smaller fires, typically extending over arm of a few square kilometers or less, are associated with the clewing of crops, such as dry land rice. A method for mapping fire scars and differentiating them from extensive areas of bare sod with AVHRR bands 1 (.55 -.68 micrometer) and 3 (3.5 - 3.9 micrometers) and measures of performance based on comparison with maps of fires with Landsat imagery will be presented. Methods of estimating total area burned from the AVHRR fire scar map will be discussed and related to land use and scar size.
Hlavka, C. A.↗