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At least 181 records · Page 10

Assessing the Accuracy of a Borehole-Controlled Velocity Model of Yucca Flat, Nevada, Using Large-N Seismic Data

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) aims to improve nuclear test monitoring capabilities through a series of chemical explosions in Yucca Flat within the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) (Snelson et al., 2013). With geologic data from over 950 boreholes, Yucca Flat has excellent borehole control on stratigraphy. These data were used to create a Geologic Framework Model (GFM) of the basin to aid in the study of seismic wave propagation through the Earth. However, the seismic velocities of the geologic units in the GFM are less well-defined. With the acquisition of five new active source Large-N datasets, we can now quantitatively assess the accuracy of the seismic model previously controlled by borehole data alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pulse-Shape Analysis of Neutron-Induced Scintillation Light in Ni-doped 6LiF/ZnS

Abstract–Alternatives to 3He are being investigated for gamma-ray insensitive neutron detection applications, including plutonium assay. One promising material is lithium-6 fluoride with silver activated zinc sulfide 6LiF/ZnS(Ag) in conjunction with a wavelength shifting plastic. Doping the 6LiF/ZnS(Ag) with nickel (Ni) has been proposed as a means of reducing the decay time of neutron signal pulses. This research performed a pulse shape comparison between Ni-doped and non-doped 6LiF/ZnS(Ag) neutron pulses. The Ni-doped 6LiF/ZnS(Ag) had a 32.7% ± 0.3 increase in neutron pulse height and a 32.4% ± 0.3 decrease in neutron pulse time compared to the non-doped 6LiF/ZnS(Ag). Doping 6LiF/ZnS(Ag) with nickel may allow neutron detector operation with improved signal to noise ratios, and reduced pulse pileup affects, increasing the accuracy and range of source activities with which such a detector could operate.

Cowles, Christian C.↗

Active Cryovolcanism on Europa?

Evidence for plumes of water on Europa has previously been found using the Hubble Space Telescope using two different observing techniques. Roth et al. found line emission from the dissociation products of water. Sparks et al. found evidence for off-limb continuum absorption as Europa transited Jupiter. Here, we present a new transit observation of Europa that shows a second event at the same location as a previous plume candidate from Sparks et al., raising the possibility of a consistently active source of erupting material on Europa. This conclusion is bolstered by comparison with a nighttime thermal image from the Galileo Photopolarimeter-Radiometer that shows a thermal anomaly at the same location, within the uncertainties. The anomaly has the highest observed brightness temperature on the Europa nightside. If heat flow from a subsurface liquid water reservoir causes the thermal anomaly, its depth is ≈1.8–2 km, under simple modeling assumptions, consistent with scenarios in which a liquid water reservoir has formed within a thick ice shell. Models that favor thin regions within the ice shell that connect directly to the ocean, however, cannot be excluded, nor modifications to surface thermal inertia by subsurface activity. Alternatively, vapor deposition surrounding an active vent could increase the thermal inertia of the surface and cause the thermal anomaly. This candidate plume region may offer a promising location for an initial characterization of Europa’s internal water and ice and for seeking evidence of Europa’s habitability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Long-term Neutron Background Environment Measured by the Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) Instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory (MSL)

The Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) consists of a pulsed neutron generator (PNG) and the neutron detector/electronics (DE) module. There are two 3He-proportional counters used in the DE module. One counter is surrounded with a Cd shell enclosure and measures epi-thermal neutrons with >0.4 eV. The second detector does not have a Cd shell enclosure and measures both thermal and epi-thermal neutrons. The main scientific objectives of DAN are two-fold: (1) the primary objective is to measure the bulk hydrogen abundance (in forms of water or hydrated minerals) of the sub-surface and (2) the secondary objective is to measure the background neutron environment at the surface. DAN achieves the first objective by using a pulsed 14 MeV neutron source (ACTIVE mode). Emitted neutrons undergo a series of nuclear interactions with the regolith and lose energy. The DAN DE module then measures the time profile of the neutrons returned from the regolith. Even a small amount of hydrogen, as low as 0.1 weight % in the regolith, can effectively moderate the high energy neutrons [Mitrofanov, et al., ]. The less-moderated (or epi-thermal) neutrons arrive at the detector earlier than the more-moderated (or thermal) neutrons. The shape and magnitude of neutron time profile curves after pulses can be used to estimate the depth distribution of the hydrogen content. When no neutron pulse is used (PASSIVE mode) DAN measures the neutron background environment at the Mars surface. There are two sources of the background neutrons which DAN would measure: one is secondary neutrons generated by galactic cosmic ray (GCR) interactions with atmospheric and surface materials and the other is neutrons from the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) onboard MSL as a power source. The passive mode data for the first 1300 sols of the MSL mission are presented in this paper. A summary of the DAN surface operation is described by [Mitrofanov et al., 2012; Jun et al., 2013.

Tate, C.↗

SU-E-T-149: Brachytherapy Patient Specific Quality Assurance for a HDR Vaginal Cylinder Case

Purpose: Commonly Ir-192 HDR treatment planning system commissioning is only based on a single absolute measurement of source activity supplemented by tabulated parameters for multiple factors without independent verification that the planned distribution corresponds to the actual delivered dose. The purpose on this work is to present a methodology using Gafchromic film with a statistically valid calibration curve that can be used to validate clinical HDR vaginal cylinder cases by comparing the calculated plan dose distribution in a plane with the corresponding measured planar dose. Methods: A vaginal cylinder plan was created with Oncentra treatment planning system. The 3D dose matrix was exported to a Varian Eclipse work station for convenient extraction of a 2D coronal dose plane corresponding to the film position. The plan was delivered with a sheet of Gafchromic EBT3 film positioned 1mm from the catheter using an Ir-192 Nucletron HDR source. The film was then digitized with an Epson 10000 XL color scanner. Film analysis is performed with MatLab imaging toolbox. A density to dose calibration curve was created using TG43 formalism for a single dwell position exposure at over 100 points for statistical accuracy. The plan and measured film dose planes were registered using a known dwell position relative to four film marks. The plan delivered 500 cGy to points 2 cm from the sources. Results: The distance to agreement of the 500 cGy isodose between the plan and film measurement laterally was 0.5 mm but can be as much as 1.5 mm superior and inferior. The difference between the computed plan dose and film measurement was calculated per pixel. The greatest errors up to 50 cGy are near the apex. Conclusion: The methodology presented will be useful to implement more comprehensive quality assurance to verify patient-specific dose distributions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TH-AB-209-02: Gadolinium Measurements in Human Bone Using in Vivo K X-Ray Fluorescence (KXRF) Technique

Purpose: Improvement in an in vivo K x-ray fluorescence system, based on 109Cd source, for the detection of gadolinium (Gd) in bone has been investigated. Series of improvements to the method is described. Gd is of interest because of the extensive use of Gd-based contrast agents in MR imaging and the potential toxicity of Gd exposure. Methods: A set of seven bone equivalent phantoms with different amount of Gd concentrations (from 0–100 ppm) has been developed. Soft tissue equivalent plastic plates were used to simulate the soft tissue overlaying the tibia bone in an in vivo measurement. A new 5 GBq 109Cd source was used to improve the source activity in comparison to the previous study (0.17 GBq). An improved spectral fitting program was utilized for data analysis. Results: The previous published minimum detection limit (MDL) for Gd doped phantom measurements using KXRF system was 3.3 ppm. In this study the MDL for bare bone phantoms was found to be 0.8 ppm. Our previous study used only three layers of plastic (0.32, 0.64 and 0.96 mm) as soft tissue equivalent materials and obtained the MDL of 4–4.8 ppm. In this study the plastic plates with more realistic thicknesses to simulate the soft tissue covering tibia bone (nine thicknesses ranging from 0.61–6.13 mm) were used. The MDLs for phantoms were determined to be 1.8–3.5 ppm. Conclusion: With the improvements made to the technology (stronger source, improved data analysis algorithm, realistic soft tissue thicknesses), the MDL of the KXRF system to measure Gd in bare bone was improved by a factor of 4.1. The MDL is at the level of the bone Gd concentration reported in literature. Hence, the system is ready to be tested on human subjects to investigate the use of bone Gd as a biomarker for Gd toxicity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Respiratory energy demands and scope for demand expansion and destruction

Photosynthesis is the primary energy input to plants, but most plant metabolic processes are powered much or all of the time by ATP and NAD(P)H that come from respiratory oxidation of photosynthetically produced carbohydrates, that is, “dark respiration” (Amthor, 1994). The processes of growth, nutrient uptake and assimilation, active transport, and maintenance are thus all clients of respiration and compete for their share of a respiratory energy budget that is capped by photosynthate income. The economic principle of opportunity cost applies to these clients’ competing demands: spending respiratory energy on process A means missing the benefit of investing that energy in process B (Mahmoudabadi et al., 2019). This principle is key to assessing prospects for crop improvement by metabolic engineering. As de Lorenzo (2015) put it: “metabolism…frames and ultimately resolves whether a given genetic program (existing…or engineered) can be deployed or not.” Foreign or reconfigured native processes bolted on to a crop-plant’s metabolic chassis must compete for respiratory energy with native ones without crashing the energy economy. A proviso on plant carbon budgets is that photosynthetic carbon fixation (“source activity”) can in certain cases increase to meet increased carbon demand (“sink activity”), that is, budget envelopes are not always fixed (Smith et al., 2018). However, as there is some consensus that productivity is most often limited or co-limited by carbon supply (Ainsworth and Long, 2005; Körner, 2015; Sonnewald and Fernie, 2018), we make this our basal assumption in the analyses below.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-55: Biological Equivalent Dose (BED) Comparison Between Permanent Interstitial Brachytherapy and Conventional External Beam Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer

Purpose: The goal of this research is to calculate and compare the Biological Equivalent Dose (BED) between permanent prostate Iodine-125 implant brachytherapy as monotherapy with the BED of conventional external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Methods: A retrospective study of 605 patients treated with Iodine-125 seed implant was performed in which physician A treated 274 patients and physician B treated 331 patients. All the Brachytherapy treatment plans were created using VariSeed 8 planning system. The Iodine-125 seed source activities and loading patterns varied slightly between the two physicians. The prescription dose is 145 Gy to PTV for each patient. The BED and Tumor Control Probability (TCP) were calculated based on the TG 137 formulas. The BED for conventional EBRT of the prostate given in our institution in 2Gy per fraction for 38 fractions was calculated and compared. Results: Physician A treated 274 patients with an average BED of 123.92±0.87 Gy and an average TCP of 99.20%; Physician B treated 331 patients with an average BED of 124.87±1.12 Gy and an average TCP of 99.30%. There are no statistically significant differences (T-Test) between the BED and TCP values calculated for these two group patients.The BED of the patients undergoing conventional EBRT is calculated to be 126.92Gy. The BED of the patients treated with permanent implant brachytherapy and EBRT are comparable. Our BED and TCP values are higher than the reported values by TG 137 due to higher Iodine-125 seed activity used in our institution. Conclusion: We calculated the BED,a surrogate of the biological response to a permanent prostate brachytherapy using TG 137 formulas and recommendation. The TCP of better than 99% is calculated for these patients. A clinical outcome study of these patients correlating the BED and TCP values with PSA and Gleason Levels as well as patient survival is warranted.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NEW ASPECTS OF A LID-REMOVAL MECHANISM IN THE ONSET OF AN ERUPTION SEQUENCE THAT PRODUCED A LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE (SEP) EVENT

We examine a sequence of two ejective eruptions from a single active region on 2012 January 23, using magnetograms and EUV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's (SDO) Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Atmospheric and Imaging Assembly (AIA), and EUV images from STEREO/EUVI. This sequence produced two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and a strong solar energetic particle event (SEP); here we focus on the magnetic onset of this important space weather episode. Cheng et al. showed that the first eruption's ({sup E}ruption 1{sup )} flux rope was apparent only in ''hotter'' AIA channels, and that it removed overlying field that allowed the second eruption ({sup E}ruption 2{sup )} to begin via ideal MHD instability; here we say that Eruption 2 began via a ''lid removal'' mechanism. We show that during Eruption 1's onset, its flux rope underwent a ''tether weakening'' (TW) reconnection with field that arched from the eruption-source active region to an adjacent active region. Standard flare loops from Eruption 1 developed over Eruption 2's flux rope and enclosed filament, but these overarching new loops were unable to confine that flux rope/filament. Eruption 1's flare loops, from both TW reconnection and standard-flare-model internal reconnection, were much cooler than Eruption 2's flare loops (GOES thermal temperatures of ∼7.5 MK and 9 MK, compared to ∼14 MK). The corresponding three sequential GOES flares were, respectively, due to TW reconnection plus earlier phase Eruption 1 tether-cutting reconnection, Eruption 1 later-phase tether-cutting reconnection, and Eruption 2 tether-cutting reconnection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Template and target-site recognition by human LINE-1 in retrotransposition

The long interspersed element-1 (LINE-1, hereafter L1) retrotransposon has generated nearly one-third of the human genome and serves as an active source of genetic diversity and human disease. L1 spreads through a mechanism termed target-primed reverse transcription, in which the encoded enzyme (ORF2p) nicks the target DNA to prime reverse transcription of its own or non-self RNAs. Here we purified full-length L1 ORF2p and biochemically reconstituted robust target-primed reverse transcription with template RNA and target-site DNA. We report cryo-electron microscopy structures of the complete human L1 ORF2p bound to structured template RNAs and initiating cDNA synthesis. The template polyadenosine tract is recognized in a sequence-specific manner by five distinct domains. Among them, an RNA-binding domain bends the template backbone to allow engagement of an RNA hairpin stem with the L1 ORF2p C-terminal segment. Moreover, structure and biochemical reconstitutions demonstrate an unexpected target-site requirement: L1 ORF2p relies on upstream single-stranded DNA to position the adjacent duplex in the endonuclease active site for nicking of the longer DNA strand, with a single nick generating a staggered DNA break. Our research provides insights into the mechanism of ongoing transposition in the human genome and informs the engineering of retrotransposon proteins for gene therapy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Non-axisymmetric structure in the satellite dwarf galaxy NGC 2976: Implications for its dark/bright mass distribution and evolution

We present the result of an extensive search for non-axisymmetric structures in the dwarf satellite galaxy of M81, NGC 2976, using multiwavelength archival observations. The galaxy is known to present kinematic evidence for a bisymmetric distortion; however, the stellar bar presence is controversial. This controversy motivated the possible interpretation of NGC 2976 as presenting an elliptical disk triggered by a prolate dark matter halo. We applied diagnostics used in spiral galaxies in order to detect stellar bars or spiral arms. The m = 2 Fourier phase has a jump around 60 arcsec, consistent with a central bar and bisymmetric arms. The CO, 3.6 μm surface brightness, and the dust lanes are consistent with a gas-rich central bar and possibly with gaseous spiral arms. The bar-like feature is offset close to 20° from the disk position angle, in agreement with kinematic estimations. The kinematic jumps related to the dust lanes suggest that the bar perturbation in the disk kinematics is non-negligible and the reported non-circular motions, the central gas excess, and the nuclear X-ray source (active galactic nucleus/starburst) might be produced by the central bar. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations of disks inside triaxial dark halos suggest that the two symmetric spots at 130 arcsec and the narrow arms may be produced by gas at turning points in an elliptical disk, or, alternatively, the potential ellipticity can be produced by a tidally induced strong stellar bar/arms; in both cases the rotation curve interpretation is, importantly, biased. The M81 group is a natural candidate to trigger the bisymmetric distortion and the related evolution as suggested by the H I tidal bridge detected by Chynoweth et al. We conclude that both mechanisms, the gas-rich bar and spiral arms triggered by the environment (tidal stirring) and primordial halo triaxiality, can explain most of the NGC 2976 non-circular motions, mass redistribution, and nuclear activity. Distinguishing between them requires detailed modeling of environmental effects. A similar analysis to ours may reveal such structures in other nearby dwarf satellite galaxies; if this is confirmed, the same evolutionary scenario will be applicable to them. This implies biases in constraining their dark matter distribution and also in making comparisons against theoretical predictions for isolated galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data Analysis of the 2020 Central Idaho Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence

In an effort to inform the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee for the Idaho National Laboratory, we provide an improved aftershock catalog related to the March 31, 2020, Mw6.5 Stanley, Idaho earthquake from picks related to a temporary network of two real-time and 15 non-telemetered seismometers within the epicentral area. From the permanent and temporary (XP) real-time network, the USGS cataloged 1,946 aftershocks between April 1, 2020 and October 31, 2020. To improve aftershock location and magnitudes, we manually picked arrival times of P and S waves from off-line stations in the XP temporary network, generated a new crustal velocity model, and independently relocated each event using the HypoDD double-difference earthquake algorithm. We created our new velocity model from existing broadband and active source seismic campaign data that were acquired near the epicentral region prior to the 2020 earthquake. We compare arrival time differences, epicentral locations and depths between aftershocks recorded with the two catalogs. We find the addition of local stations provides tighter aftershock clustering that suggests an improved aftershock locations. To detect lower magnitude events, we employed deep learning. Our method solves common problems associated with detecting many events that have a low signal-to-noise ratio. From the machine learning database, we detected more than 74,000 aftershocks. Based on the number of identified earthquakes and Gutenberg-Richter relationships derived from the USGS catalog, we estimate that we have reduced the completion magnitude for the Stanley earthquake sequence to below M1 using this machine learning approach. We located each aftershock with our new velocity model. Our new velocity model and picks suggests aftershocks occurred mostly at shallower depths than assessed in the USGS catalog. These aftershocks align along two linear trends that suggest the activation of two unnamed primary faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fermi/GBM Observations of SGRJ0501 + 4516 Bursts

We present our temporal and spectral analyses of 29 bursts from SGRJ0501+4516, detected with the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor onboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope during the 13 days of the source activation in 2008 (August 22 to September 3). We find that the T(sub 90) durations of the bursts can be fit with a log-normal distribution with a mean value of approx. 123 ms. We also estimate for the first time event durations of Soft Gamma Repeater (SGR) bursts in photon space (i.e., using their deconvolved spectra) and find that these are very similar to the T(sub 90)s estimated in count space (following a log-normal distribution with a mean value of approx. 124 ms). We fit the time-integrated spectra for each burst and the time-resolved spectra of the five brightest bursts with several models. We find that a single power law with an exponential cutoff model fits all 29 bursts well, while 18 of the events can also be fit with two black body functions. We expand on the physical interpretation of these two models and we compare their parameters and discuss their evolution. We show that the time-integrated and time-resolved spectra reveal that E(sub peak) decreases with energy flux (and fluence) to a minimum of approx. 30 keV at F = 8.7 x 10(exp -6)erg/sq cm/s, increasing steadily afterwards. Two more sources exhibit a similar trend: SGRs J1550 - 5418 and 1806 - 20. The isotropic luminosity, L(sub iso), corresponding to these flux values is roughly similar for all sources (0.4 - l.5 x 10(exp 40) erg/s.

Lin, Lin↗

Quantifying EGS Reservoir Complexity with an Integrated Geophysical Approach-Improved Resolution Ambient Seismic Noise Interferometry

The primary goal of the project was met, as improved resolution (from kilometers to tens/hundreds of meters and to a depth of at least 3 km) was added to the seismic interferometry-estimated parameters relative to the work reported in AltaRock Energy Inc. (2014) for the Dixie Valley Geothermal Wellfield. A procedure for initial fault identification, using seismic interferometry, was developed. The project team further improved, and applied a new, cost-effective, and non-invasive exploration method, developed and validated since 2010, during two previous experiments, at Dixie Valley and Soda Lake, Nevada. The method, initially designed for hydrothermal exploration, was adapted to EGS exploration conditions, which require deeper crustal information. Regions of elevated energy for both the 2-7 Hz and 5-15 Hz frequency bands are located above intersections of multiple faults. Thus, an unprecedented, innovative seismic field deployment and ambient seismic noise and signal processing were successfully used to estimate crustal structure and to identify fault locations at depths up to 3 km, at a cost per kilometer of survey that in some cases may be as much as ten times less than the cost of a controlled-source survey. Based on valid and useful seismic data collected and analyzed during Phase I, in Phase II the team has further quantified statistically the advantage of using seismic analysis, in combination with other geological and geophysical techniques, for EGS target identification. A power spectral density analysis of the passive-seismic empirical Green’s functions reveals significantly higher power recorded over the exploration area at the power plant, and in the drilling area, near the BB station 10201, especially on the horizontal components. In this study, the most important relationship observed during the prior report, namely the one between velocity and temperature was explored. The areas that show anomalously high predicted temperature in the geostatistics occur where multiple faults intersect. Not surprisingly, such areas span between the Dixie Valley range front fault and the basin-ward Piedmont faults, in the vicinity of numerous wells. These locations also fall in the area of high EGS favorability from the prior 2014 study. The anomalies also coincide with the high power spectral density values. The result of altering all favorability criteria for the new data reached a maximum of 1/8th of a point and were not large enough to change any favorability value reported in the 2014 study. The new data reinforce the results obtained from the previous 2014 study. The current high-resolution ambient seismic noise project provided excellent results in defining faults in the wellfield. As such the identification of known faults by the project demonstrated the utility of this method for identifying faults at an exploration stage in geothermal development. Such fault identification, while extremely useful in exploration investigation, has not added sufficient new data for the generation of significantly different DVGW favorability maps in the current project. We believe the cost savings of our passive-seismic technique for EGS, over common industry active-source survey techniques, may have a minimum of 30%, and a maximum of 90%. There are many significant non-cost benefits of passive seismic surveys. Our passive-source method provides an environmentally-friendly seismic survey with minimal to negligible impacts. The economic benefit is greater EGS project feasibility.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

SU-E-T-12: A Comparative Dosimetric Study of Pre and Post Prostate Iodine-125 Permanent Seed Implants

Purpose: Post-implant dosimetry has become the gold standard for prostate implant evaluation. The goal of this research is to compare the dosimetry between pre-plan and post-plan in permanent prostate seed implant brachytherapy. Methods: A retrospective study of 91 patients treated with Iodine-125 prostate seed implant between year 2012∼2014 were performed. All plans were created using a VariSeed 8.0 planning system. Pre-plan ultrasound images were acquired using 0.5 cm slice thickness. Post-plan CT images acquired about 1–4 weeks after implant, fused with the preplan ultrasound images. The prostate and urethra contours were generated using the fusion of ultrasound and CT images. Iodine-125 seed source activities varied between 0.382 to 0.414 mCi per seed. The loading patterns varied slightly between patients depending on the prostate size. Statistical analysis of pre and post plans for prostate and urethra volumes, V100%, V150% and D90, and urethra D10 were performed and reported. Results: The pre and post implant average prostate size was 36.90cc vs. 38.58cc; V100% was 98.33% vs. 96.89%; V150% was 47.09% vs. 56.95%; D90 was 116.35Gy vs. 116.12Gy, urethra volume was 1.72cc vs. 1.85cc, urethra D10% was 122.0% vs. 135.35%, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between the pre and post-plan values for D90(p-value=0.43). However, there are significant differences between other parameters most likely due to post surgical edema; prostate size (p-value= 0.00015); V100% (p-value=3.7803E-07); V150% (p-value=1.49E-09); urethra volume (p-value= 2.77E-06); Urethra D10 (p-value=7.37E-11). Conclusion: The post-plan dosimetry using CT image set showed similar D90 dose coverage to the pre-plan using the ultrasound image dataset. The study showed that our prostate seed implants have consistently delivered adequate therapeutic dose to the prostate while sparing urethra. Future studies to correlate dose versus biochemical response using patients’ PSA values as well as patients’ survival are warranted.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal changes of seismic attenuation caused by injected CO 2 at the Frio-II pilot site, Dayton, TX, USA

A continuous active source seismic monitoring data set was collected with crosswell geometry during CO 2 injection at the Frio-II brine pilot, near Liberty, TX. Previous studies have shown that spatiotemporal changes in the P wave first arrival time reveal the movement of the injected CO 2 plume in the storage zone. To further constrain the CO 2 saturation, particularly at higher saturation levels, we investigate spatial-temporal changes in the seismic attenuation of the first arrivals. The attenuation changes over the injection period are estimated by the amount of the centroid frequency shift computed by local time-frequency analysis. We observe that (1) at receivers above the injection zone seismic attenuation does not change in a physical trend; (2) at receivers in the injection zone attenuation sharply increases following injection and peaks at specific points varying with distributed receivers, which is consistent with observations from time delays of first arrivals; then, (3) attenuation decreases over the injection time. The attenuation change exhibits a bell-shaped pattern during CO 2 injection. Under Frio-II field reservoir conditions, White's patchy saturation model can quantitatively explain both the P wave velocity and attenuation response observed. We have combined the velocity and attenuation change data in a crossplot format that is useful for model-data comparison and determining patch size. Our analysis suggests that spatial-temporal attenuation change is not only an indicator of the movement and saturation of CO 2 plumes, even at large saturations, but also can quantitatively constrain CO 2 plume saturation when used jointly with seismic velocity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Monitoring spatiotemporal evolution of fractures during hydraulic stimulations at the first EGS collab testbed using anisotropic elastic-waveform inversion

The EGS Collab project acquired continuous active-source seismic monitoring (CASSM) data before, during, and after hydraulic stimulations at the first testbed at the depth of 4850 ft (1478 m) at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, for monitoring fracture creation and evolution. CASSM acquisition was conducted using 24 hydrophones, 18 accelerometers, and 17 piezoelectric sources within four fracture-parallel wells and two orthogonal wells. 3D anisotropic traveltime tomography and anisotropic elastic-waveform inversion of the campaign cross-borehole seismic data show that the rock within the stimulation region is a heterogeneous horizontal transverse isotropic medium. Here we use these inversion results as the initial models and apply 3D anisotropic first-arrival traveltime tomography and 3D anisotropic elastic-waveform inversion to the CASSM data acquired after each stimulation in May, 2018 and December, 2018. We observe the spatiotemporal evolution of seismic velocities and anisotropic parameters caused by hydraulic fracture stimulations, showing the regions of rock alternation caused by hydraulic fracture stimulation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Machine Learning Predicts the Timing and Shear Stress Evolution of Lab Earthquakes Using Active Seismic Monitoring of Fault Zone Processes

Abstract Machine learning (ML) techniques have become increasingly important in seismology and earthquake science. Lab‐based studies have used acoustic emission data to predict time‐to‐failure and stress state, and in a few cases, the same approach has been used for field data. However, the underlying physical mechanisms that allow lab earthquake prediction and seismic forecasting remain poorly resolved. Here, we address this knowledge gap by coupling active‐source seismic data, which probe asperity‐scale processes, with ML methods. We show that elastic waves passing through the lab fault zone contain information that can predict the full spectrum of labquakes from slow slip instabilities to highly aperiodic events. The ML methods utilize systematic changes in P‐wave amplitude and velocity to accurately predict the timing and shear stress during labquakes. The ML predictions improve in accuracy closer to fault failure, demonstrating that the predictive power of the ultrasonic signals improves as the fault approaches failure. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between the ultrasonic parameters and fault slip rate, and in turn, the systematically evolving real area of contact and asperity stiffness allow the gradient boosting algorithm to “learn” about the state of the fault and its proximity to failure. Broadly, our results demonstrate the utility of physics‐informed ML in forecasting the imminence of fault slip at the laboratory scale, which may have important implications for earthquake mechanics in nature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗