Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “anomaly localization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America

Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections

Climate model projections have previously been used to compute ice shelf basal melt rates in ice sheet models, but the strategies employed – e.g., ocean input, parameterization, calibration technique, and corrections – have varied widely and are often ad hoc. Here, a methodology is proposed for the calculation of circum-Antarctic basal melt rates for floating ice, based on climate models, that is suitable for ISMIP6, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The past and future evolution of ocean temperature and salinity is derived from a climate model by estimating anomalies with respect to the modern day, which are added to a present-day climatology constructed from existing observational datasets. Temperature and salinity are extrapolated to any position potentially occupied by a simulated ice shelf. A simple formulation is proposed for a basal melt parameterization in ISMIP6, constrained by the observed temperature climatology, with a quadratic dependency on either the nonlocal or local thermal forcing. Two calibration methods are proposed: (1) based on the mean Antarctic melt rate (MeanAnt) and (2) based on melt rates near Pine Island's deep grounding line (PIGL). Future Antarctic mean melt rates are an order of magnitude greater in PIGL than in MeanAnt. The PIGL calibration and the local parameterization result in more realistic melt rates near grounding lines. PIGL is also more consistent with observations of interannual melt rate variability underneath Pine Island and Dotson ice shelves. This work stresses the need for more physics and less calibration in the parameterizations and for more observations of hydrographic properties and melt rates at interannual and decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

PRISM3D: a 3-D reference seismic model for Iberia and adjacent areas

SUMMARY We present PRISM3D, a 3-D reference seismic model of P- and S-wave velocities for Iberia and adjacent areas. PRISM3D results from the combination of the most up-to-date earth models available for the region. It extends horizontally from 15°W to 5°E in longitude, 34°N to 46°N in latitude and vertically from 3.5 km above to 200 km below sea level, and is modelled on a regular grid with 10 and 0.5 km of grid node spacing in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. It was designed using models inferred from local and teleseismic body-wave tomography, earthquake and ambient noise surface wave tomography, receiver function analysis and active source experiments. It includes two interfaces, namely the topography/bathymetry and the Mohorovičić (Moho) discontinuity. The Moho was modelled from previously published receiver function analysis and deep seismic sounding results. To that end we used a probabilistic surface reconstruction algorithm that allowed to extract the mean of the Moho depth surface along with its associated standard deviation, which provides a depth uncertainty estimate. The Moho depth model is in good agreement with previously published models, although it presents slightly sharper gardients in orogenic areas such as the Pyrenees or the Betic-Rif system. Crustal and mantle P- and S-wave wave speed grids were built separately on each side of the Moho depth surface by weighted average of existing models, thus allowing to realistically render the speed gradients across that interface. The associated weighted standard deviation was also calculated, which provides an uncertainty estimation on the average wave speed values at any point of the grid. At shallow depths (<10 km), low P and S wave speeds and high VP/VS are observed in offshore basins, while the Iberian Massif, which covers a large part of western Iberia, appears characterized by a rather flat Moho, higher than average VP and VS and low VP/VS. Conversely, the Betic-Rif system seems to be associated with low VP and VS, combined with high VP/VS in comparison to the rest of the study area. The most prominent feature of the mantle is the well known high wave speed anomaly related to the Alboran slab imaged in various mantle tomography studies. The consistency of PRISM3D with previous work is verified by comparing it with two recent studies, with which it shows a good general agreement.The impact of the new 3-D model is illustrated through a simple synthetic experiment, which shows that the lateral variations of the wave speed can produce traveltime differences ranging from –1.5 and 1.5 s for P waves and from –2.5 and 2.5 s for S waves at local to regional distances. Such values are far larger than phase picking uncertainties and would likely affect earthquake hypocentral parameter estimations. The new 3-D model thus provides a basis for regional studies including earthquake source studies, Earth structure investigations and geodynamic modelling of Iberia and its surroundings.

Arroucau, P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Structural Explanation of the Dielectric Enhancement of Barium Titanate Nanoparticles Grown under Hydrothermal Conditions

Abstract When synthesized under certain conditions, barium titanate (BaTiO 3 , BTO) nanoparticles are found to have the non‐thermodynamic cubic structure at room temperature. These particles also have a several‐fold enhanced dielectric constant, sometimes exceeding 6000, and are widely used in thin‐layer capacitors. A hydrothermal approach is used to synthesize BTO nanocrystals, which are characterized by a range of methods, including X‐ray Rietveld refinement and the Williamson–Hall approach, revealing the presence of significant inhomogeneous strain associated with the cubic phase. However, X‐ray pair distribution function measurements clearly show the local structure is lower symmetry than cubic. This apparent inconsistency is resolved by examining 3D Bragg coherent diffraction images of selected nanocrystals, which show the existence of ≈50 nm‐sized domains, which are interpreted as tetragonal twins, and yet cause the average crystalline structure to appear cubic. The ability of these twin boundaries to migrate under the influence of electric fields explains the dielectric anomaly for the nanocrystalline phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Supervised T-GCN for Detection of Disturbance and Propagation in Power Grid

Urban power systems increasingly rely on dense sensing to monitor grid reliability, yet disturbance labels are scarce and events are rare. We present a self-supervised spatio-temporal method that detects, localizes, and characterizes grid frequency disturbances across urban areas using only unlabeled data. Our approach trains a tiny Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) to forecast per-site frequency residuals (deviation from 60 Hz). The sensor graph is constructed directly from signals using pre-event Pearson correlation with a cross-correlation lag penalty without geocoding. At inference, node-level anomalies are the model's forecast errors; region-level alarms arise from connected components of high-score nodes. We estimate disturbance propagation by computing per-node arrival times (first persistent exceedance), then fit a planar or time-of-arrival model to obtain direction, speed, and an epicenter proxy. With only three real events collected at decisecond resolution across U.S. cities, we evaluate the T-GCN and report time-to-detect, footprint size, and propagation consistency. We further show that short-window embeddings from the T-GCN's hidden states enable few-shot event-vs-background recognition via a simple prototypical classifier. Despite minimal data and no labels, our system yields fast, spatially coherent detection and interpretable propagation maps, offering a practical, lightweight pathway to city-scale grid resilience analytics.

Niu, Haoran [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000155228297)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pseudospin-lattice coupling and electric control of the square-lattice iridate Sr2IrO4

Sr 2 IrO 4 is an archetypal spin-orbit-coupled Mott insulator and has been extensively studied in part because of a wide range of predicted states. Limited experimental characterization of these states thus far brings to light the extraordinary susceptibility of the physical properties to the lattice, particularly, the Ir-O-Ir bond angle. Here, we report a microscopic rotation of the IrO 6 octahedra below 50 K measured by single crystal neutron diffraction. Overall, this sharp lattice anomaly provides keys to understanding the anomalous low-temperature physics and a direct confirmation of a crucial role that the Ir-O-Ir bond angle plays in determining the ground state. Indeed, as also demonstrated in this study, applied electric current readily weakens the antiferromagnetic order via the straightening of the Ir-O-Ir bond angle, highlighting that even slight change in the local structure can disproportionately affect the physical properties in the spin-orbit-coupled system.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Community Engagement - A Citizen-Centric Approach to Seeking a Social License - 20017

The long regulatory road has finally been completed-after years of effort a Record of Decision has been signed and a Permit to Construct has been granted or a Permit to Operate has been obtained. But what about the other road that should be taken in parallel-community engagement? Working with the public is not a sequential activity, rather it is a consequential one and needs to be integrated with overall project planning. Unless you have effectively, meaningfully, and patiently engaged with the project's communities of impact, you may find your project trying to obtain a social license or a social license to operate (SLO). The SLO has its origins in the mining industry and its roots in the business model of corporate social responsibility and sustainability. These latter practices are well known to the US DOE and its contractor community. Aspects of the SLO are emerging as individuals and communities are becoming more informed and have increased expectations for being able to influence and shape decisions. When local community issues are not sought out, listened to, or addressed early, and questions are left unanswered, they can become agenda items for larger unaffiliated groups, and project loss (through delays and/or cancellation) can occur. Issues can transition from resolvable to intractable, a type of SLO face-off. Social media campaigns, serial negative media coverage, and protest signs at project sites opposing regulatory decisions already made are no longer anomalies. These types of incidents demonstrate the increasingly delicate relationship between approved regulatory/technical decisions and public acceptance of those decisions. A SLO is not a requirement. However, the building-blocks of a SLO - working with members of affected communities to build understanding, potentially to obtain and maintain community acceptance or even gain approval or support - are evidence of leadership by project sponsors. Actions taken, or not taken, by project sponsors truly have the ability to influence an outcome. While projects are not assured of success or failure, engaging the community in an empowered process is an investment of time and resources toward success for the project and thus for the communities of impact. Authors Note: Extensive literature searches were performed in developing this paper. The majority of the published literature on SLO as a 'movement' was found from sources in Canada, the European Union (Germany and France in particular), South Asia, South Korea, and many Latin American countries. The literature addressed resource development (mining), infrastructure, and energy projects. Articles written by US sources often spoke to origins and structural theory, specific project issues such as Not in My Back Yard (NIMBY) and to protests/demonstrations related to those projects, rather than systemic opposition/conflict phenomena. For these reasons many international SLO experiences and sources are cited in the discussion. The authors recognize these non-US experiences with SLO as having a 'forecast' value to US projects, especially those related to nuclear projects of any type, waste treatment and disposal, energy development (especially fossil fuels as well as alternative sources), mining, and infrastructure. The body of future SLO experiences in the US will shape the future responses to it. (authors)

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-time Anomaly Detection for Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers

We present a real-time anomaly detection framework for liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs), targeting applications in particle physics experiments such as the Short Baseline Near Detector (SBND) or the future Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). These experiments employ detectors that generate and stream high-resolution but sparse images of neutrino and other particle interactions. Our approach utilizes anomaly detection with autoencoders, compressed through knowledge distillation (KD), to enable the detection of anomalous signals in the data through efficient inference on resource-constrained hardware. The framework is targeted for deployment on computing platforms equipped with field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), GPUs, or CPUs, allowing low-latency selection of relevant activity directly from the raw detector data stream. We demonstrate that our approach is suitable for the detection and localization of anomalously "high-multiplicity" activity, and outline promising applications for LArTPC online data filtering and triggering.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Role of Maritime Continent Land Convection on the Mean State and MJO Propagation

The Maritime Continent (MC) region is known as a ‘barrier’ in the life-cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). During boreal winter, the MJO detours the equatorial MC land region southward and propagates through the oceanic region. Also, about half of the MJO events that initiate over the Indian Ocean cease around the MC. The mechanism through which the MC affects MJO propagation, however, has remained unanswered. The current study investigates the MJO-MC interaction with a particular focus on the role of MC land convection. Using a global climate model that simulates both mean climate and MJO realistically, we performed two sensitivity experiments in which updraft plume radius is set to its maximum and minimum value only in the MC land grid points, making convective top deeper and shallower, respectively. In this work, our results show that MC land convection plays a key role in shaping the 3-D climatological moisture distribution around the MC through its local and non-local effects. Shallower and weaker MC land convection results in a steepening of the vertical and meridional mean moisture gradient over the MC region. The opposite is the case when MC land convection becomes deeper and stronger. The MJO’s eastward propagation is enhanced (suppressed) with the steeper (lower) mean moisture gradient. The moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MJO reveals the vertical and meridional advection of the mean MSE by MJO wind anomalies as the key processes that are responsible for the changes in MJO propagation characteristics. Our results pinpoint the critical role of the background moisture gradient on MJO propagation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Zwicky Transient Facility and Globular Clusters: the Period–Luminosity and Period–Luminosity–Color Relations for Late-type Contact Binaries

In this work, we aimed to derive the gri-band period–luminosity (PL) and period–luminosity–color (PLC) relations for late-type contact binaries, for the first time, located in globular clusters, using the homogeneous light curves collected by the Zwicky Transient Factory (ZTF). We started with 79 contact binaries in 15 globular clusters, and retained 30 contact binaries in 10 globular clusters that have adequate numbers of data points in the ZTF light curves and are unaffected by blending. Magnitudes at mean and maximum light of these contact binaries were determined using a fourth-order Fourier expansion, while extinction corrections were done using the Bayerstar2019 3D reddening map together with adopting the homogeneous distances to their host globular clusters. After removing early-type and “anomaly” contact binaries, our derived gri-band PL and period–Wesenheit (PW) relations exhibited a much larger dispersion with large errors on the fitted coefficients. Nevertheless, the gr-band PL and PW relations based on this small sample of contact binaries in globular clusters were consistent with those based on a larger sample of nearby contact binaries. Good agreements of the PL and PW relations suggested both samples of contact binaries in the local Solar neighborhood and in the distant globular clusters can be combined and used to derive and calibrate the PL, PW, and PLC relations. The final derived gr-band PL, PW, and PLC relations were much improved over those based on the limited sample of contact binaries in the globular clusters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anomalous magnetoresistance by breaking ice rule in Bi2Ir2O7/Dy2Ti2O7 heterostructure

Abstract While geometrically frustrated quantum magnets host rich exotic spin states with potentials for revolutionary quantum technologies, most of them are necessarily good insulators which are difficult to be integrated with modern electrical circuit. The grand challenge is to electrically detect the emergent fluctuations and excitations by introducing charge carriers that interact with the localized spins without destroying their collective spin states. Here, we show that, by designing a Bi 2 Ir 2 O 7 /Dy 2 Ti 2 O 7 heterostructure, the breaking of the spin-ice rule in insulating Dy 2 Ti 2 O 7 leads to a charge response in the conducting Bi 2 Ir 2 O 7 measured as anomalous magnetoresistance during the field-induced Kagome ice-to-saturated ice transition. The magnetoresistive anomaly also captures the characteristic angular and temperature dependence of this ice-rule-breaking transition, which has been understood as magnetic monopole condensation. These results demonstrate a novel heteroepitaxial approach for electronically probing the transition between exotic insulating spin states, laying out a blueprint for the metallization of frustrated quantum magnets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Noncollinear spin structure with weak ferromagnetism in NbMnP

NbMnP is a metallic material, which consists of the zigzag chains of Mn moments along the b axis. The magnetic susceptibility as well as the resistivity shows an anomaly at 233 K, which indicates an antiferromagnetic phase transition. Our neutron powder diffraction experiment reveals that the magnetic structure is a Q=0 structure and noncollinear with an easy plane anisotropy perpendicular to the b axis, and the a- and c-axis magnetic components align antiferromagnetically and ferromagnetically along the zigzag chain direction, respectively. The ordered moment is 1.2μ B , which is reduced probably due to the itineracy of the Mn moments. A localized picture model suggests that the Q=0 magnetic structure is formed by the frustration among several exchange couplings. A weak ferromagnetic component is also present in the antiferromagnetic phase, which is considered to be caused by a Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contracted, Not Converted: Photoluminescence Thermochromism in Ultrabright Pure Blue Emissive Hybrid Copper(I) Halide

Thermochromic luminescent materials are promising for applications such as sensors or display technologies. Understanding the mechanism of thermochromic luminescence in these materials plays an important role for their targeted applications. Here, a 0D copper(I) halide (TMP)2CuBr3 and 1D (TMP)Ag2Br3 (TMP = tetramethylphosphonium) are reported. While (TMP)Ag2Br3 is a weak light emitter, (TMP)2CuBr3 demonstrates ultrabright pure blue emission with photoluminescence (PL) quantum yield exceeding 90% within the temperature range 300–80 K. The emission in (TMP)2CuBr3 is attributed to the radiative recombination of self-trapped excitons (STEs) that arise localized on [CuBr3]2− anions. (TMP)2CuBr3 demonstrates excitation-selective PL thermochromism at low temperatures. In the literature, the origin of multiple STEs is often unclear in luminescent metal halides. Here, a detailed temperature-dependent spectroscopic and structural analysis suggests that the PL thermochromism in (TMP)2CuBr3 is associated with the appearance of a second STE state. The appearance of second STE is expected to have a structural origin, and it may be associated with the observed anomaly in thermal contraction near 200 K. The distinct PL features of melt-processible (TMP)2CuBr3 coupled with its remarkable photo- and thermal stability allow its consideration for practical optical applications, including temperature sensing.

Popy, Dilruba [University of Oklahoma, Norman]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-calibrating the look-elsewhere effect: fast evaluation of the statistical significance using peak heights

In experiments where one searches a large parameter space for an anomaly, one often finds many spurious noise-induced peaks in the likelihood. This is known as the look-elsewhere effect, and must be corrected for when performing statistical analysis. Here, this paper introduces a method to calibrate the false alarm probability (FAP), or p-value, for a given dataset by considering the heights of the highest peaks in the likelihood. Specifically, we derive an equation relating the global p-value to the rank and height of local maxima. In the simplest form of self-calibration, the look-elsewhere-corrected $\chi^2$ of a physical peak is approximated by the $\chi^2$ of the peak minus the $\chi^2$ of the highest noise-induced peak, with accuracy improved by considering lower peaks. In contrast to alternative methods, this approach has negligible computational cost as peaks in the likelihood are a byproduct of every peak-search analysis. We apply to examples from astronomy, including planet detection, periodograms, and cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Charge-lattice coupling and the dynamic structure of the U–O distribution in UO 2+x

The different structures and behaviors of UO 2+x observed in crystallographic and local structure measurements were examined by extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements of pristine UO 2.0 , p + and He 2+ irradiated UO 2.0 , and, at multiple temperatures, bulk U 4 O 9 and U 3 O 7 and thin film U 4 O 9-δ on an epitaxial substrate. The disorder caused by irradiation is mostly limited to increased widths of the existing U–O/U pair distributions, with any new neighbor shells being minor. As has been previously reported, the disorder caused by oxidative addition to U 4 O 9 and U 3 O 7 is much more extensive, resulting in multisite U–O distributions and greater reduction of the U–U amplitude with different distributions in bulk and thin-film U 4 O 9 . This includes the significant spectral feature near R = 1.2 Å for all U 4 O 9 and U 3 O 7 samples fit with a U-oxo type moiety with a U–O distance around 1.7 Å. In addition to indicating that these anomalies only occur in mixed valence materials, this work confirms the continuous rearrangement of the U–O distributions from 10 to 250 K. Although these variations of the structure are not observed in crystallography, their prominence in the EXAFS indicates that the dynamic structure underlying these effects is an essential factor of these materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Magnetic structures and excitations in sawtooth olivine chalcogenides Mn 2 SiX 4 (X = S, Se)

The Mn lattice in olivine chalcogenide Mn 2 SiX 4 (X = S, Se) compounds forms a sawtooth, which is of special interest in magnetism owing to the possibility of realizing flat bands in magnon spectra, a key component in magnonics. In this work, we investigate the Mn 2 SiX 4 olivines using magnetic susceptibility, and X-ray and neutron diffraction. We have determined the average and local crystal structures of Mn 2 SiS 4 and Mn 2 SiSe 4 using synchrotron X-ray, neutron diffraction, and X-ray total scattering data followed by Rietveld and pair distribution function analyses. It is found from the pair distribution function analysis that the Mn triangle that constitutes the sawtooth is isosceles in Mn 2 SiS 4 and Mn 2 SiSe 4 . The temperature evolution of magnetic susceptibility of Mn 2 SiS 4 and Mn 2 SiSe 4 shows anomalies below 83 K and 70 K, respectively, associated with magnetic ordering. From the neutron powder diffraction measurements the magnetic space groups of Mn 2 SiS 4 and Mn 2 SiSe 4 are found to be Pnma and Pnm'a', respectively. Here, we find that the Mn spins adopt a ferromagnetic alignment on the sawtooth in both Mn 2 SiS 4 and Mn 2 SiSe 4 but along different crystallographic directions for the S and the Se compounds. From the temperature evolution of Mn magnetic moments obtained from refining neutron diffraction data, the transition temperatures are accurately determined as T N (S) = 83(2) K and T N (Se) = 70.0(5) K. Broad diffuse magnetic peaks are observed in both the compounds, and are prominently seen close to T N , suggesting the presence of a short-range magnetic order. The magnetic excitations studied using inelastic neutron scattering reveal a magnon excitation with an energy corresponding to approximately 4.5 meV in both S and Se compounds. Spin correlations are observed to persist up to 125 K much above the ordering temperature and we suggest the possibility of short-range spin correlations responsible for this.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-enabled model-data integration for predicting subsurface water storage

Subsurface water storage (SWS) is a key variable of the climate system and a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the climate system. It plays a critical role in climate-change projections and can mitigate the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. However, because of the difficult accessibility of the underground, hydrologic properties and dynamics of SWS are poorly known. Direct observations of SWS are limited, and accurate incorporation of SWS dynamics into Earth system land models remains challenging. We propose a machine learning-enabled model-data integration framework to improve the SWS prediction at local to conus scales in a changing climate by leveraging all the available observation and simulation resources, as well as to inform the model development and guide the observation collection. The accurate prediction will enable an optimal decision of water management and land use and improve the ecosystem's resilience to the climate change.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗