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NASA NTRS2004

Scientific Objectives, measurement needs, and challenges motivating the PARAGON Aerosol Initiative

A systematic, comprehensive aerosol research framework needs to replace the current, fragmented approach. The Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON) concept (Diner et al. 2004) envisions a coordinated and systematic approach for dramatically improving our understanding of aerosol climate impacts and environmental interactions. Among its scientific motivations is the need to establish, with great confidence, the magnitude of direct anthropogenic aerosol influences on climate and the magnitude and sign of indirect aerosol–cloud effects. Modeling of the industrial era temperature record indicates that net aerosol forcing is slightly less, but opposite in sign, than forcing from anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, the uncertainties in aerosol direct and indirect anthropogenic forcing are of the same magnitude as the effects themselves (Penner et al. 2001; Ramaswamy et al. 2001), and are the dominant sources of uncertainty in current estimates of total anthropogenic climate forcing. A major cause of uncertainty is the tremendous tropospheric aerosol variability in space and time. On regional scales, aerosols can have a much greater effect than GHGs, especially at the earth’s surface.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Placing the East-West North American Aridity Gradient in a Multi-Century Context

Instrumental records indicate a century-long trend towards drying over western North America and wetting over eastern North America. A continuation of these trends into the future would have significant hydroclimatic and socioeconomic consequences in both the semi-arid Southwest and humid East. Using tree-ring reconstructions and hydrologic simulations of summer soil moisture, we evaluate and contextualize the modern summer aridity gradient within its natural range of variability established over the past 600 years and evaluate the effects of observed and anthropogenic precipitation, temperature, and humidity trends. The 2001–2020 positive (wet east-dry west) aridity gradient was larger than any 20-year period since 1400 CE, preceded by the most negative (wet west-dry east) aridity gradient during 1976-1995, leading to a strong multi-decade reversal in aridity gradient anomalies that was rivaled only by a similar event in the late-16th century. The 2001-2020 aridity gradient was dominated by long-term summer precipitation increases in the Midwest and Northeast, with smaller contributions from more warming in the West than the East and spring precipitation decreases in the Southwest. Multi-model mean climate simulations from CMIP6 experiments suggest anthropogenic climate trends should not have strongly affected the aridity gradient thus far. However, there is high uncertainty due to inter-model disagreement on anthropogenic precipitation trends. The recent strengthening of the observed aridity gradient, its increasing dependence on precipitation variability, and disagreement in modeled anthropogenic precipitation trends reveal significant uncertainties in how water resource availability will change across North America in the coming decades.

drought↗

NASA NTRS2022

Wetland Emission and Atmospheric Sink Changes Explain Methane Growth in 2020

Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns(1). Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr−1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns(2). From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings(3,4,) our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge(5).

Shushi Peng↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Atmospheric Formaldehyde Trend and Its Source Attributions in the Recent Decades

Formaldehyde (CH 2 O) is one of the most important reactive trace gases in the atmosphere with an important role in tropospheric chemistry and in the control of surface air quality. Sources of CH 2 O includes direct emissions and in situ production from the oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In this study, we investigate spatial-temporal variations in atmospheric CH 2 O and how changes in CH 2 O couple with tropospheric ozone variability during the past two decades using recently available retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard NASA’s Aura satellite and the RefD1 simulation from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Our initial analysis provides evidence of significant increases in atmospheric CH 2 O concentrations over several of the world’s major anthropogenic regions, including China, India, and the Middle East, and several biomass burning regions, including South America, southern Africa, boreal regions and Indonesia. We furthermore will identify regional source contributions to CH 2 O trends, including anthropogenic VOCs emissions, biogenic isoprene emissions and open fires. In particular, we will focus on anthropogenic emission regions to examine the role of changing anthropogenic VOC emissions on CH 2 O abundance.

Atmospheric Formaldehyde↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Stratospheric Aerosols Contamination Due to Space Activities

The life cycle of a spacecraft starts and ends in the atmosphere: it interacts with the atmosphere right after the launch and during the atmospheric reentry when it usually mostly ablates. Both phases induce emissions of gases and solid particles, providing a source of these components in the middle atmosphere. Little is known about the exact nature, composition and effects of these emissions on the atmosphere and climate, but their impact is expected to rise as more and more orbiting satellites are launched. Ever since the years 2000, the number of space rockets launched per year has increased by a factor 3 globally. At the same time, the number of satellites launched in orbit around the Earth per year has been multiplied by about 30. One may wonder whether changes in the anthropogenic material injected in the terrestrial stratosphere can be detected and what its influence may be. In order to study the cosmic dust particles arriving on Earth, the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) has been systematically collecting solid dust particles from the Earth’s stratosphere by aircraft equipped with dedicated particle collectors since 1981. So far, 25 catalogs have been published, covering campaigns of collection from 1981 to 2020, with a total of 5071 solid particles that have been preliminary characterized and curated. In this work, we use the preliminary classification of the dust particles. Based on SEM images and X-ray EDS composition the collected dust is separated into four groups: C (Cosmic), TCN (Terrestrial Contaminant Natural), TCA (Terrestrial Contaminant Artificial) and AOS (Aluminum Oxide Sphere). The AOS being mostly generated by solid rocket propellant, they also belong to the TCA class. Our analysis of the data published indicates that from 1980 to 2009 the cosmic dust particles typically represent on average 40% of the collection with TCA and TCN corresponding to about 30% each. In the recent years, the TCA fraction has doubled to about 60% of the collection (2010-2020). This increase in anthropogenic particles is likely due to the overall human space activity and its recent increase. We will present the properties of the solid stratospheric dust particles collected and their evolution with time. Future work will be dedicated to better classify the natural and anthropogenic particles collected and described in the existing databases. We will use numerical modelling to produce quantitative estimates of the injected mass, the lifetime of particles in the middle atmosphere (stratosphere) and the relative abundance of the anthropogenic particles with respect to the stratospheric background particle population.

J Lasue↗

NASA NTRS2022

Scattering and Absorbing Aerosols in the Climate System

Tropospheric anthropogenic aerosols contribute the second-largest forcing to climate change, but with high uncertainty owing to their spatio-temporal variability and complicated optical properties. In this Review, we synthesize understanding of aerosol observations and their radiative and climate effects. Aerosols offset about one-third of the warming effect by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Yet, in regions and seasons where the absorbing aerosol fraction is high — such as South America and East and South Asia — substantial atmospheric warming can occur. The internal mixing and the vertical distribution of aerosols, which alters both the direct effect and aerosol–cloud interactions, might further enhance this warming. Despite extensive research in aerosol–cloud interactions, there is still at least a 50% spread in total aerosol forcing estimates. This ongoing uncertainty is linked, in part, to the poor measurement of anthropogenic and natural aerosol absorption, as well as the little-understood effects of aerosols on clouds. Next-generation, space-borne, multi-angle polarization and active remote sensing, combined with in situ observations, offer opportunities to better constrain aerosol scattering, absorption and size distribution, thus, improving models to refine estimates of aerosol forcing and climate effects.

Tropospheric anthropogenic aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2016

Direct Radiative Effects of Aerosols Over South Asia From Observations and Modeling

Quantitative assessment of the seasonal variations in the direct radiative effect (DRE) of composite aerosols as well as the constituent species over the Indian sub continent has been carried out using a synergy of observations from a dense network of ground based aerosol observatories and modeling based on chemical transport model simulations. Seasonal variation of aerosol constituents depict significant influence of anthropogenic aerosol sources in winter and the dominance of natural sources in spring, even though the aerosol optical depth doesn't change significantly between these two seasons. A significant increase in the surface cooling and atmospheric warming has been observed as season changes from winter DRE(sub SUR) = −28 +/- 12 W m(exp −2) and DRE(sub ATM) = +19.6 +/- 9 W m(exp −2) to spring DRE(sub SUR) = −33.7 +/- 12 W m(exp −2) and DRE(sub ATM) = +27 +/- 9 W m(exp−2). Interestingly, springtime aerosols are more absorptive in nature compared to winter and consequently the aerosol induced diabatic heating of the atmosphere goes as high as approximately 1 K day(exp -1) during spring, especially over eastern India. The atmospheric DRE due to dust aerosols (+14 +/- 7 W m(exp 2) during spring overwhelms that of black carbon DRE (+11.8 +/- 6 W m(exp -2) during winter. The DRE at the top of the atmosphere is mostly governed by the anthropogenic aerosols during all the seasons. The columnar aerosol loading, its anthropogenic fraction and radiative effects shows a steady increase with latitude across Indian mainland leading to a larger aerosol-induced atmospheric warming during spring than in winter.

dust aerosols↗

NASA NTRS1990

Pb isotopes in surficial pelagic sediments from the North Atlantic

The concentration of Pb and its isotopic composition were measured in samples from the surface of sea-water sediments obtained from the northeastern Atlantic, the Sargasso Sea, and the U.S. continental shelf, with the purpose of investigating changes in Pb sources due to the anthropogenic perturbation that took place in modern times. It was found that the anthropogenic Pb input to marine sediments due to the increase of Pb contamination over the ocean during the last century could be identified in all these samples. However, samples from eastern and western Atlantic had very different Pb isotopic profiles, each reflecting the character of anthropogenic Pb emissions from the European and U.S. industries, respectively.

Hamelin, B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Summertime tropospheric ozone distributions over central and eastern Canada

Ozone measurements were obtained between the surface and the 6-km altitude on aircraft flights over central and eastern Canada during the summer 1990 NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (GTE/ABLE 3B). Tropospheric O3 budgets for these regions were observed to be highly variable and significantly impacted by long-range transport and regional scale air mass modification processes. For example, integrated O3 abundance below 5-km altitude averaged 40% and 30% greater in air masses influenced by anthropogenic sources and biomass burning, respectively, than in background (polar) air. Conversely, aged air transported from subtropical areas of the Pacific at times reduced O3 abundance in this height interval by up to 20%. Though intrusion of anthropogenic air was infrequent during the experiment period, the influence of biomass-burning emissions was particularly notable as two thirds of the flights sampled air influenced by plumes from fires burning in Alaska and western Canada. The impinging pollution, both natural and anthropogenic, not only elevated O3 levels directly but also was a source of reactive nitrogen (and nonmethane hydrocarbons) which generally increases the tropospheric lifetime of O3 via moderation of photochemical destruction rates.

Anderson, B. E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Carbon disulfide measurements in the atmosphere of the western North Atlantic and the northwestern South Atlantic Oceans

Carbon disulfide (CS2) measurements were made over the western and equatorial North Atlantic Ocean and the northwestern and equatorial South Atlantic Ocean. Carbon disulfide was in the range 0.4-50 pptrv in the atmosphere of the western North Atlantic Ocean. Emissions from anthropogenic sources and wet lands were found to be important although anthropogenic sources were 4-6 times larger than biogenic sources. The flux of CS2 from eastern North America between 30 and 39 deg latitude was estimated to be 2 x 10(exp 8)g/yr or sulfur. The anthropogenic contribution was 1.8 x 10(exp 8)g/yr of sulfur whereas the contribution of marshes was 0.2 x 10(exp 8)g/yr of sulfur. Sources of CS2 at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere were comparatively weak. Carbon disulfide levels in the western South Atlantic Ocean between -5 and 1 deg latitude were in the range 0.2-6 pptrv. Most of the CS2 appeared to come from biomass burning in Africa. Carbon disulfide was much higher close to shore suggesting that the South American continent was a significant source although too few data were available to quantify it. On ferry lights from Wallops, Virginia to Natal, Brazil, CS2 levels at the ferry altitude of about 6 km averaged 1.2 pptrv. This background CS2 was adequate to account for all the carbonyl sulfide (OCS) in the atmosphere.

Bandy, Alan R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aerosol Climate Effects: Local Radiative Forcing and Column Closure Experiments

In an effort to reduce uncertainties in climate change predictions, experiments are being planned and conducted to measure anthropogenic aerosol properties and effects, including effects on radiative fields. The global average, direct anthropogenic aerosol effect on upwelling shortwave fluxes is estimated to be about +1/2 W/sq m, whereas errors in flux changes measured with airborne and spaceborne radiometers are 2 to 8 W/sq m or larger. This poses the question of whether flux changes expected in field experiments will be large enough to measure accurately. This paper obtains a new expression for the aerosol-induced change in upwelling flux, compares it to two-stream and adding-doubling (AD) results, and uses all three methods to estimate expected flux changes. The new expression accounts for the solar zenith angle dependences of aerosol transmission and reflection, as well as of surface albedo, all of which can have a strong effect in determining flux changes measured in field experiments. Despite its relative simplicity, the new expression gives results similar to previous two-stream results. Relative to AD results, it agrees within a few watts per square meter for the intermediate solar elevation angles where the flux changes peak (roughly 10 to 30 degrees), but it has negative errors for higher Sun and positive errors for lower Sun. All three techniques yield aerosol-induced changes in upwelling flux of +8 to +50 W/sq m for aerosol midvisible optical depths of 0.1 to 0.5. Because such aerosol optical depths occur frequently off the U.S. and European Atlantic coasts in summer, the flux changes they induce should be measurable by airborne, and possibly by spaceborne, radiometers, provided sufficient care is taken in experiment design (including measurements to separate aerosol radiative effects from those of absorbing gases). The expected flux changes are about 15 to 100 times larger than the global average flux change expected for the global average anthropogenic sulfate optical depth of 0.04. Reasons for the larger flux changes include the larger optical depths considered here (factor 2.5 to 12), plus restricting the measurements to cloud-free, daytime conditions over the ocean (factor 5 to 9).

Russell, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Mapping Rice Production in China with AVHRR Imagery

The study of rice agriculture is necessary for both the importance of rice as a vital food source and because of the fact that cultivating it has an unfortunate byproduct, namely methane gas. As a food source, rice is a staple for a large majority of the world's population, especially in Asia. Because the populations of many Asian nations are increasing at rapid rates, the production of rice will need to similarly increase. In 1989, it was estimated that the demand for rice would increase by 65% by the year 2019. Rice crops are considered to be one of the primary anthropogenic sources of methane gas. A reason for concern is that this gas is a so-called "greenhouse" trace gas and given its increasing levels in the atmosphere, is thought to contribute to the suspected global warming phenomenon. Some estimate that methane may contribute up to 20% to the global warming effect. Trace gas emissions from anthropogenic sources is an issue that generates great worldwide interest because of the fact that mankind is very likely affecting the current and future climate in potentially negative ways. In an effort to better understand these effects, scientists and engineers are conducting research on all of the varied fronts which relate to climate change and biosphere/atmosphere interactions. The study of global warming through increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is one area which has received much media and scientific attention. Research fueled by debates on this topic is being conducted on numerous, interrelated fronts in an effort to better understand the complex relationship between human activities and the earth's climate. The research ranges from attempting to verify if the observed data even supports the existence of an anthropogenically generated global-warming phenomenon, to identification of sources and sinks of the trace gases, to measuring the source strengths, to studies which focus on modeling the processes which generate the gases, and finally, to trying to project their impact on the global climatic system. Some of the more commonly known sources of greenhouse gases are related to industry and transportation. Carbon dioxide, CO2, from automobile emissions is one such example. Lesser known are sources from natural and cultivated vegetation, such as the methane, CH4, resulting from rice cropping. While the concentration of atmospheric methane is significantly less than that of carbon dioxide, CH4 has been estimated to have up to 32 times the insulating capability of carbon dioxide, making it an important gas to monitor. The remainder of this chapter will provide some additional background information on the effects of atmospheric methane, and the role that rice agriculture plays as a source in the methane budget. This will be followed by a brief description of efforts to model this source of atmospheric methane. Finally, this chapter will end with a statement of the hypotheses of this thesis, at which time a description of the information contained in the rest of this document will be provided.

Paliouras, Eleni J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Solar Effects on Climate and the Maunder Minimum: Minimum Certainty

The current state of our understanding of solar effects on climate is reviewed. As an example of the relevant issues, the climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The GISS Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model coupled to a q-flux/mixed layer model is used for the simulations, which begin in 1500 and extend to the present. Experiments were made to investigate the effect of total versus spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes; spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes on the stratospheric ozone/climate response with both pre-industrial and present trace gases; and the impact on climate and stratospheric ozone of the preindustrial trace gases and aerosols by themselves. The results showed that: (1) the Maunder Minimum cooling relative to today was primarily associated with reduced anthropogenic radiative forcing, although the solar reduction added 40% to the overall cooling. There is no obvious distinguishing surface climate pattern between the two forcings. (2)The global and tropical response was greater than 1 C, in a model with a sensitivity of 1.2 C per W m-2. To reproduce recent low-end estimates would require a sensitivity 1/4 as large. (3) The global surface temperature change was similar when using the total and spectral irradiance prescriptions, although the tropical response was somewhat greater with the former, and the stratospheric response greater with the latter. (4) Most experiments produce a relative negative phase of the NAO/AO during the Maunder Minimum, with both solar and anthropogenic forcing equally capable, associated with the tropical cooling and relative poleward EP flux refraction. (5) A full stratosphere appeared to be necessary for the negative AO/NAO phase, as was the case with this model for global warming experiments, unless the cooling was very large, while the ozone response played a minor role and did not influence surface temperature significantly. (6) Stratospheric ozone was most affected by the difference between present day and preindustrial atmospheric composition and chemistry, with increases in the upper and lower stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum. While the estimated UV reduction led to ozone decreases, this was generally less important than the anthropogenic effect except in the upper middle stratosphere, as judged by two different ozone photochemistry schemes. (7) The effect of the reduced solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone and on climate was similar in Maunder Minimum and current atmospheric conditions.

Rind, David↗

NASA NTRS1996

Methyl bromide: ocean sources, ocean sinks, and climate sensitivity

The oceans play an important role in the geochemical cycle of methyl bromide (CH3Br), the major carrier of O3-destroying bromine to the stratosphere. The quantity of CH3Br produced annually in seawater is comparable to the amount entering the atmosphere each year from natural and anthropogenic sources. The production mechanism is unknown but may be biological. Most of this CH3Br is consumed in situ by hydrolysis or reaction with chloride. The size of the fraction which escapes to the atmosphere is poorly constrained; measurements in seawater and the atmosphere have been used to justify both a large oceanic CH3Br flux to the atmosphere and a small net ocean sink. Since the consumption reactions are extremely temperature-sensitive, small temperature variations have large effects on the CH3Br concentration in seawater, and therefore on the exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. The net CH3Br flux is also sensitive to variations in the rate of CH3Br production. We have quantified these effects using a simple steady state mass balance model. When CH3Br production rates are linearly scaled with seawater chlorophyll content, this model reproduces the latitudinal variations in marine CH3Br concentrations observed in the east Pacific Ocean by Singh et al. [1983] and by Lobert et al. [1995]. The apparent correlation of CH3Br production with primary production explains the discrepancies between the two observational studies, strengthening recent suggestions that the open ocean is a small net sink for atmospheric CH3Br, rather than a large net source. The Southern Ocean is implicated as a possible large net source of CH3Br to the atmosphere. Since our model indicates that both the direction and magnitude of CH3Br exchange between the atmosphere and ocean are extremely sensitive to temperature and marine productivity, and since the rate of CH3Br production in the oceans is comparable to the rate at which this compound is introduced to the atmosphere, even small perturbations to temperature or productivity can modify atmospheric CH3Br. Therefore atmospheric CH3Br should be sensitive to climate conditions. Our modeling indicates that climate-induced CH3Br variations can be larger than those resulting from small (+/- 25%) changes in the anthropogenic source, assuming that this source comprises less than half of all inputs. Future measurements of marine CH3Br, temperature, and primary production should be combined with such models to determine the relationship between marine biological activity and CH3Br production. Better understanding of the biological term is especially important to assess the importance of non-anthropogenic sources to stratospheric ozone loss and the sensitivity of these sources to global climate change.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of 1970-1995 Trends in Tropospheric Ozone at Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes with the GEOS-CHEM Model

I ] The causes of trends in tropospheric ozone at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes from 1970 to 1995 are investigated with the GEOS-CHEM model, a global three-dimensional model of the troposphere driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This model is used to investigate the sensitivity of tropospheric ozone with respect to (1) changes in the anthropogenic emission of nitrogen oxides and nonmethane hydrocarbons, (2) increases in methane concentrations, (3) variations in the stratospheric source of ozone, (4) changes in solar radiation resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion, and ( 5 ) increases in tropospheric temperatures. Model results indicate that local increases in NO, emissions have caused most of the increases seen in lower tropospheric ozone over Europe and Japan. Increases in methane are responsible for roughly one fifth of the anthropogenically induced increase in tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes. However, changes in ozone precursors do not adequately explain either the spatial differences in observed ozone trends across midlatitudes or the observed decreases in ozone over Canada throughout the troposphere. We argue that ozone depletion in the lowermost stratosphere is likely to have reduced the stratospheric source by as much as 30% from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s. Model simulations that account for such a reduction along with reported changes in anthropogenic emissions show steep declines of ozone in the upper troposphere and variable increases in the lower troposphere that are more consistent with observations. Differential temperature trends in summer between North America and Europe may account for at least some of the remaining spatial variation in tropospheric ozone trends. Increases in ultraviolet (UV) radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion do not appear to significantly reduce tropospheric ozone, except at midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere following the breakup of the ozone hole.

Fusco, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Constraining Oceanic Sources and Sinks of CO2 by Inverse Modeling: A First Step Toward Assimilation of In Situ and Remote Data

The primary goal of this collaborative project, lead by Nicholas Gruber at UCLA, is to better quantify the air-sea fluxes of pre-industrial and anthropogenic carbon dioxide CO2 for the global ocean with a newly developed inverse method. The method involves using ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) to characterize the subsurface distribution of tracers injected for different regions of the ocean surface. By linearly combining a series of these basis (or Greens) functions, one should be able to recreate any arbitrary ocean tracer field. In our case, we are using the global database of ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the WOCE/JGOFS global CO2 survey from the 1990s. The observed DIC field has been partitioned into pre-industrial and anthropogenic components using the empirical C* technique. We then solve for an optimal combination of the regional basis functions that best match the two sets observations in a least-squares sense with singular value decomposition. This in turn provides solutions for the regional air-sea CO2 fluxes (pre-industrial and anthropogenic) that are independent of more traditional estimates derived from surface water disequilibria in the partial pressure of CO2 and wind speed gas exchange parameterizations. We are apply the method to a suite of nine different OGCMs to test the robustness of the derived surface fluxes fields to differences in ocean circulation. Together with a collegue Keith Lindsay at NCAR, S. Doney's role in this project was to create the appropriate steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions from the NCAR CSM-1 ocean circulation model. Because of a slow start across the project in defining a common set of experimental protocols, we requested and were given a one year, no cost extension. Both the steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions were delivered to the UCLA group for further analysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Doney, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Calibration and Characterization of Earth Remote Sensing and Environmental Monitoring Instruments

The use of remote sensing instruments on orbiting satellite platforms in the study of Earth Science and environmental monitoring was officially inaugurated with the April 1, 1960 launch of the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) [1]. The first TIROS accommodated two television cameras and operated for only 78 days. However, the TIROS program, in providing in excess of 22,000 pictures of the Earth, achieved its primary goal of providing Earth images from a satellite platform to aid in identifying and monitoring meteorological processes. This marked the beginning of what is now over four decades of Earth observations from satellite platforms. reflected and emitted radiation from the Earth using instruments on satellite platforms. These measurements are input to climate models, and the model results are analyzed in an effort to detect short and long-term changes and trends in the Earth's climate and environment, to identify the cause of those changes, and to predict or influence future changes. Examples of short-term climate change events include the periodic appearance of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean [2] and the spectacular eruption of Mount Pinatubo on the Philippine island of Luzon in 1991. Examples of long term climate change events, which are more subtle to detect, include the destruction of coral reefs, the disappearance of glaciers, and global warming. Climatic variability can be both large and small scale and can be caused by natural or anthropogenic processes. The periodic El Nino event is an example of a natural process which induces significant climatic variability over a wide range of the Earth. A classic example of a large scale anthropogenic influence on climate is the well-documented rapid increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide occurring since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution [3]. An example of the study of a small-scale anthropogenic influence in climate variability is the Atlanta Land-use Analysis Temperature and Air-quality (ATLANTA) project [4]. This project has found that the replacement of trees and vegetation with concrete and asphalt in Atlanta, Georgia, and its environs has created a microclimate capable of producing wind and thunderstorms. A key objective of climate research is to be able to distinguish the natural versus human roles in climate change and to clearly communicate those findings to those who shape and direct environmental policy.

Butler, James J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Aerosol Absorption and Radiative Forcing

We present a comprehensive examination of aerosol absorption with a focus on evaluating the sensitivity of the global distribution of aerosol absorption to key uncertainties in the process representation. For this purpose we extended the comprehensive aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM by effective medium approximations for the calculation of aerosol effective refractive indices, updated black carbon refractive indices, new cloud radiative properties considering the effect of aerosol inclusions, as well as by modules for the calculation of long-wave aerosol radiative properties and instantaneous aerosol forcing. The evaluation of the simulated aerosol absorption optical depth with the AERONET sun-photometer network shows a good agreement in the large scale global patterns. On a regional basis it becomes evident that the update of the BC refractive indices to Bond and Bergstrom (2006) significantly improves the previous underestimation of the aerosol absorption optical depth. In the global annual-mean, absorption acts to reduce the shortwave anthropogenic aerosol top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing clear-sky from -0.79 to -0.53 W m(sup -2) (33%) and all-sky from -0.47 to -0.13W m(sup -2 (72%). Our results confirm that basic assumptions about the BC refractive index play a key role for aerosol absorption and radiative forcing. The effect of the usage of more accurate effective medium approximations is comparably small. We demonstrate that the diversity in the AeroCom land-surface albedo fields contributes to the uncertainty in the simulated anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcings: the usage of an upper versus lower bound of the AeroCom land albedos introduces a global annual-mean TOA forcing range of 0.19W m(sup -2) (36%) clear-sky and of 0.12W m(sup -2) (92%) all-sky. The consideration of black carbon inclusions on cloud radiative properties results in a small global annual-mean all-sky absorption of 0.05W m(sup -2) and a positive TOA forcing perturbation of 0.02W m(sup -2). The long-wave aerosol radiative effects are small for anthropogenic aerosols but become of relevance for the larger natural dust and sea-salt aerosols.

Stier, Philip↗