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The Dark Energy Spectrographic Instrument (DESI) Guide-Focus Assembly

The specific research of the DESI project is to study in detail the expansion history of the Universe over the past 10 billion years. In order to do this, the project designed, fabricated, tested and commissioned the DESI instrument which has been deployed at the Mayall Telescope at the Kitt Peak National Observatory near Tucson, Arizona. The DESI project was conducted by approximately 30 US and foreign national laboratories. Our CRADA with the The Institut de Física d’Altes Energies (IFAE) in Barcelona (Spain) involved both research planning for eventual observing on the DESI telescope; and in providing hardware jointly designed by LBNL and IFAE; ten guide and focus sensor systems (GFAs) that either provide feedback to the Mayall telescope tracking system or provide focus position information to the DESI corrector hexapod. The key major goals of this CRADA were achieved.For survey planning, Drs. Fernandez, Fosalba, Garcia-Bellido, and Gaztañaga were all important contributors to the working groups to which they were assigned. Their application of redshift techniques, development of simulations to support target selection, exploration of the use of alternative observables to extract cosmological information like AP and void statistics, and the use of PAU data to assist in the optimization of targeting selections have been vital in the early planning for targets during commissioning. The major role in the project involved Drs. Castander, Miquel, Padilla, and Sànchez. They were all directly involved with the development of the Guide-Focus Assembly (GFA) hardware, software and filter validation. In order to accomplish the goals of the DESI Project, the Mayall telescope must track DESI targeted galaxies for up to 15 minutes and the DESI corrector must be repositioned on its hexapod system for different telescope orientations. The guide and focus assemblies (GFA) provide in this information. There are ten GFA modules on the focal plane, six providing tracking information and four providing focus information. A common GFA design supports both functions by a simple switching of its operating mode. IFAE designed, fabricated, tested and delivered twelve GFAs. Once received at LBNL, the GFAs were integrated with the focal plane. This was an iterative process as the GFA’s were delivered as they were made. Our working relationship with the IFAE scientists and engineers was remarkable given the distance and time zone issues. The GFAs have performed extremely well during the commissioning phase of the instrument.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Dark Energy Spectrographic Instrument (DESI) Optical Fiber System

The specific research of the DESI project is to study in detail the expansion history of the Universe over the past 10 billion years. In order to do this, the project designed, fabricated, tested and commissioned the DESI instrument which has been deployed at the Mayall Telescope at the Kitt Peak National Observatory near Tucson, Arizona. The DESI project was conducted by approximately 30 US and foreign national laboratories. The complete instrument includes a prime focus corrector assembly, a focal plane with 5,000 optical fibers whose position can be set by robotic positioners, and ten spectrographs. Each spectrograph can accommodate the light from 500 fibers and include three color channels that are illuminated by a common collimator mirror and other planar transfer optics. In order for this entire system to work, optical fibers are required to connect each positioner to the spectrographs. Our CRADA with Durham University in the UK provided the 10 crucial fiber cables required to connect the DESI focal plane to the 10 spectrographs. The key major goals of this CRADA were achieved. Survey planning was another key component to the Durham contribution. Drs. Frenk, Baugh, Cole, Edge, Lacey, Li, Lucey, Massey, Metcalfe, Norberg and Shanks were all important contributors to the working groups to which they were assigned. Their work to implement emission lines and QSO in lightcone mocks, mocks for non-standard cosmologies/modified gravity, optimization of completeness of BGS in crowded regions and extended source photometry have been vital in the early planning for targets during commissioning. The major role in the project involved Dr. Ray Sharples and his team. They provided a significant portion of the design, fabrication and testing of the optical fiber system. In particular, they were responsible for the design, production of engineering drawings, component procurements, and fabrication of the 10 DESI Science fiber cables. Working in close collaboration with Dr. Claire Poppett, they also designed and fabricated the slit assemblies, the specialized termination of the groups of 500 fibers which plug into the spectrographs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The energetics and dynamics of confinement in flexible frameworks and molecular confinement

This project is part of an ongoing and long-term collaboration among Alexandra Navrotsky (who moved recently from UC Davis to Arizona State University), Nancy Ross at Virginia Tech, and Brian Woodfield at Brigham Young University (BYU) on the thermodynamics and lattice dynamics of nanophase and porous materials. Navrotsky emphasizes energetics of formation and guest molecule sorption by ambient and high temperature calorimetry, Woodfield contributes cryogenic heat capacity measurements, and Ross uses inelastic neutron scattering, X-ray and neutron diffraction, and high pressure studies to probe lattice dynamics and phase transitions. Porous frameworks form the chemical and structural basis for critical technologies in separations, catalysis, nuclear waste containment and biomedical applications. Hundreds of zeolites and metal organic frameworks (MOFs) have been synthesized, and their ability to separate and store hydrogen, methane and carbon dioxide has been investigated both experimentally and theoretically. Nevertheless, a fundamental and systematic molecular-level understanding of the thermodynamic and structural factors governing the stability and guest-host interactions in these materials lags behind focused studies of specific systems. Because the guest molecules interact with each other and with the host framework, molecular confinement is a finely balanced and complex phenomenon. The ability of the guest molecules to bind and diffuse through the pores is determined by the nature of the host framework which, in turn, responds to the nature and concentration of guest molecules and to pressure and temperature. The work explores how framework flexibility, tailored by structure, composition, temperature and pressure, is a general phenomenon, similar in nature but variable in extent, in both zeolites and MOFs and is part of a free energy landscape in which framework-guest interactions, pressure, and temperature result in changes in framework geometry and, in some cases, phase transitions. These subtle and/or pronounced changes in lattice geometry, energetics, and dynamics can play a decisive role in confinement and in differentiating the binding of molecules of similar size.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Production of Biocrude in an Advanced Photobioreactor-Based Biorefinery

Algenol Biotech, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Georgia Institute of Technology, Arizona State University, and Reliance Industries formed a team to advance the state of the art in algal biomass production and downstream processing technologies, with the end goal of a sustainable, economically viable biofuel intermediate (BFI, biocrude) product. The project included examination of high value co-product production as a market entry strategy and for enhancing the economics of a biorefinery for BFI production. The project targeted innovations in biology, operations, and engineering. The goals of the project were: BFI productivity greater than 4,000 gal-BFI/acre-yr on an annualized basis; energy efficient innovations in downstream operations resulting in an energy expenditure less than 10% of the BFI energy content and a carbon footprint reduction of more than 60% compared to fossil alternatives; and a comprehensive Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that identifies limiting factors for commercial viability of a photobioreactor (PBR)-based biofuel product. The project achieved the overall objectives. Strain development efforts led to the identification of a strain (Cyanobacterium sp. AB1166) that, relative to the previous best strain (Cyanobacterium sp. AB1), exhibited a ~10% increase in productivity under commercially-relevant cultivation conditions and also resulted in cultures with a >50% reduction in viscosity such that harvesting efficiency was improved; these results represent achievement of key project milestones. Progress was also made at NREL in altering the biochemical composition of algal biomass to improve the yield of BFI produced via HTL. These strain enhancements coupled with improved outdoor cultivation practices, including semi-continuous operation, increased areal biomass productivity by nearly 80% over the established baseline productivity. The annualized productivity achieved (26.8 g/m2-d), paired with HTL conversion yields realized at NREL and RIL (38% ± 2% BFI), translates to 4,100 gal-BFI/acre-yr, exceeding the FY20 BETO goal of 3,700 gal-BFI/acre-yr. Significant progress was also demonstrated in large scale PBR-based production system design, operability, and cost reduction. A 24,000-L production module comprised of 240 interlinked PBRs was constructed and successfully operated outdoors for over one year in Fort Myers, Florida. Aided by a state-of-the-art productivity model, the productivities achieved convincingly demonstrated scalability of laboratory results determined at the mL to L scale to large-scale outdoor operations exceeding 20,000 L. The system was used to cultivate Arthrospira platensis (Spirulina), an industrially-relevant cyanobacterium and source for phycocyanin, an approved blue food colorant that Algenol is developing as a risk reduction strategy for future biofuel projects and as a potential business opportunity. A key project milestone to develop phycocyanin extraction and purification technologies was achieved ahead of schedule, and product samples received positive feedback from potential customers. The production and downstream operations data generated in this project were used to conduct and refine Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessments to provide research guidance for reducing the costs and environmental footprint of algal biofuel and co-product manufacturing plants. Several CO 2 supply scenarios for an algal biorefinery were identified as being capable of providing a large (>60%) reduction in carbon footprint in comparison to gasoline. The TEA assessments incorporated detailed comparisons of PBR versus open pond production systems, yielding a 3-fold higher areal productivity for PBRs and suggesting overall production cost parity for the two systems. The progress in this ABY2 project addressed many of the the barriers identified for the Advanced Algal Systems R&D Program and are directly relevant to achieving the established BETO goals associated with large scale biofuel production and cost reduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Area Lighting Yuma Sector Border Patrol Area, AZ. SSL Evaluation [Brief]

Along the Yuma Sector Border Patrol Area in Yuma, Arizona, the GATEWAY program conducted a trial evaluation in which the incumbent quartz metal halide area lighting was replaced with LED at three pole locations, and illuminance measurements were recorded initially and at 2500 hours, 5000 hours, 7000, and 11,000 hours of operation. Additionally, four second-generation LED luminaires installed as part of the full installation were evaluated initially and again after 4,000 hours of operation. While the initial energy, lighting quality, and maintenance benefits relative to the incumbent high-pressure sodium system were very satisfactory, the study raises important questions regarding the long-term performance of LED lighting systems in high-temperature environments.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dynamic Simulation Technoeconomic Model for Power Generation

Sandia National Laboratories has built and successfully tested a dynamic simulation technoeconomic model of the Palo Verde Generating Station that is now being updated to help other US power plants improve operations. Palo Verde, located west of Phoenix, Arizona, is the largest electricity generator in the US at 4 GW. Palo Verde uses — 60 million gallons per day of treated wastewater from Phoenix to cool reactors, and disposes of blowdown in evaporation ponds. The model built for Palo Verde numerically evaluates the economic impact of changing, for example, alternative cooling technologies, water usage and treatment, and influent water chemistry, and is based on detailed accounting of mass, energy, and cash flows.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sources of Propane Consumed in California

Project Scope: The objective of this study is to specify the sources of propane consumed in California. It answers the questions, where does the propane used in California come from and how was it produced? The results of this study provide comprehensive, transparent, and verifiable estimates, based on the 2018 market. The information provided in this report is suitable for use to assess the life cycle carbon intensity of propane used as a transportation fuel in California. As the 2009 Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) aims to reduce California’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other smog-forming and toxic air pollutants, the appropriate designation of carbon intensity for propane as a transportation fuel is important for evaluating propane’s potential to contribute to GHG goals and understandings in the context of various actions. This study focuses on estimating the shares of total propane consumed in the state of California produced from petroleum refineries, natural gas plants, and bituminous sands sources inside California and elsewhere. Results: An estimated 590 million gallons of propane were consumed in California in 2018, of which, 59.5% originated from refinery production and 40.5% originated from natural gas plants. The majority of this was sourced from refinery production in California, 334 million gallons. Most of the propane imported to California for consumption was sourced from natural gas plants, 113 million gallons, with over half of the imported volume sourced from Canada. The volume sourced from bituminous sand upgrader and fractionator operations was negligible. Details from this analysis are presented in the table below which provides an overview of the propane flows estimated in this study by region and production method. The shares and volumes presented here represent a snapshot for 2018. A significant increase in propane demand, such as could be caused by increased use of propane as a transportation fuel in the state, would affect California’s propane production, imports, and exports. The method and data sources used for the estimates provided in this report also provide the framework which could be used for future updates. Key Method Considerations: The values presented here are based on a two-step approach where the first step was to determine the flows of propane into and out of California from different regions and the second step was to estimate the propane production methods in each region. A volume balance approach is used as the primary method for tracking the volume of propane in and out of California as propane production and import volumes are available by Petroleum Administration of Defense District (PADD) from EIA and neither inter-PADD propane transfers nor state-specific non-prime supplier consumption are available from a public data source. The volume balance performed for this study covered PADD 5 (the West Coast), which includes Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. The volume balance used all available public datasets to determine propane production, imports, exports, and consumption. Volumes unaccounted for by these datasets were estimated using the resulting volume balance by assuming market equilibrium. Consumption within each state in PADD 5 was estimated based on known import, export, and production volumes and this amount was used to develop the volume balance. EIA only tracks consumption at the state level by prime supplier sales. The volume balance approach provides the basis to correct for additional propane consumed in-states where propane is transferred to California. To determine the California propane sources and trade in 2018. volume of propane consumed in California, the volume balance approach is again used where it was estimated all imported volumes not specifically flagged for re-export were consumed, and the remaining consumption was produced in-state. The California Energy Commission (CEC) provided the total volume of propane imported and exported from California in 2018; this volume data set along with commodity tracking from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) and the International Trade Commission (ITC) which tracks port of entry and final destination was used to determine where propane originated from and where it was ultimately consumed. For example, the CER tracks propane leaving Canada and entering each state within the U.S. Imported propane from Canada to California – marked for California – is assumed to be consumed in California. When no further data were available, import volumes were assumed to be consumed in California without pass-through (i.e., no propane imported to California was directly sold and exported). In most cases, the production method for each propane source region was applied to the volume of propane transferred to California. In other words, the shares of propane sourced from natural gas and refineries for each production region was assigned to California imports based on their contribution to the total volume flows into California to determine the production method for propane consumed in-state. For volumes imported into California from PADD 4, Washington State, Canada, and the rest of the world (Argentina, Chile, Norway, Peru, South Korea, and Trinidad and Tobago), the volumes sourced from petroleum refineries and natural gas plants reflect the either production ratio for the region or, in cases where the sources specific to the amounts exported to California could be determined, the sources specific to the volumes transferred to California.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Financial Analysis of Experimental Releases Conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2019

This report was prepared by Argonne National Laboratory in support of a financial analysis of the Glen Canyon Dam high-flow experimental release that is intended to mobilize the sand in the Colorado River with high-volume water releases from the dam and redeposit it downstream as sandbars along the river. These sandbars serve, among other things, as habitat for wildlife. This experimental release was conducted during the period from November 5 to November 8, 2018. This analysis was funded by the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) Office of the U.S. Department of Energy Western Area Power Administration (WAPA). CRSP markets electricity produced by hydroelectric facilities collectively known as the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects including dams equipped for power generation on the Colorado, Green, Gunnison, and Rio Grande Rivers and on Plateau Creek in the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. Staff members in Argonne’s Energy Systems Division prepared this technical report with assistance from the WAPA CRSP and Energy Marketing and Management Offices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Financial Analysis of the 2019 Glen Canyon Dam Bug Flow Experiment

This report was prepared by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) in support of a financial analysis of the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) flow experiment that was intended to support downstream macroinvertebrate production that are a primary food supply for fishes in the Colorado River. Also known as “bug flow” experiments, these experimental water releases were conducted on the weekends and holidays from the beginnings of May 2019 through the end of August 2019. This analysis was funded by the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) Office of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Western Area Power Administration (WAPA). CRSP markets electricity produced by hydroelectric facilities collectively known as the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects including dams equipped for power generation on the Colorado, Green, Gunnison, and Rio Grande Rivers and on Plateau Creek in the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. Staff members in Argonne’s Energy Systems Division prepared this technical memorandum with assistance from WAPA’s CRSP and Energy Marketing and Management Offices (EMMO).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Coupled social and infrastructure approaches for enhancing solar energy adoption. Final Report

The goal of this project was to work with rural electric cooperatives to facilitate the diffusion of solar energy adoption in households located in the rural and semi-urban areas of Virginia by identifying social and behavioral factors that might be unique to rural regions; and develop a model to calculate the solar adoption propensity score for household based on their demographics, social and behavioral characteristics which would provide an objective metric to cooperatives that can be further used to do targeted marketing of rooftop solar panels. This was achieved through the following tasks: (1) Conducted a survey of the members of Virginia electric cooperatives to identify demographic, social, financial and behavioral attributes of individuals who are likely to adopt rooftop solar panels. (2) Developed a highly detailed, data-driven, agent-based model of the population of Virginia, focusing on the rural regions. (3) Developed diffusion models that use social, behavioral, and demographic factors, and peer effects to study their impact on solar adoption in rural areas. (4) Built a prototype tool based on the diffusion model to help study market segmentation in rural areas and made it available to National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA). (5) Results and recommendations derived from the model were provided to NRECA to be shared with participating cooperatives. (6) Results were published in peer reviewed journals, conference proceedings and book chapters, and ideas disseminated through presentations and newsletters. There were several important methodological contributions made under this project which are detailed in the published papers, including: (1) Built a decision-adjusted model for predicting adoptors with imbalanced training data; (2) designed seeding strategies to maximize adoption given a fixed budget; (3) built a methodology to compare different agent based models; (4) created models to identify important factors that influence decision to adopt solar panels; and (5) built a methodology for building household profiles of solar generation to study the duck curve phenomenon. The team included members from the University of Virginia (lead), National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), Arizona State University, Virginia Tech and Sandia National Laboratory. Note that no individual entity or stakeholder has incentive to promote solar in rural regions. Most of the research and work focuses around urban regions where the potential for growth in solar adoption is higher due to higher population density. This puts rural areas at a disadvantage. By improving the diffusion of solar adoption in rural parts of the country, we can not only provide clean energy to rural areas but also promote job growth and improves energy independence.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Non-contact Current-Voltage (I-V) Tracer for Photovoltaics

This report presents a non-contact approach to simultaneously obtain current-voltage (I-V) curves of photovoltaic (PV) substrings and modules in a string without the need of disconnecting the individual modules from the string. There are two types of I-V curve tracers currently available in the marketplace, capacitor-based and electronic load-based. The primary requirement of these conventional I-V tracers is the disconnection of individual modules in the string so the individual modules contacted through the connectors of the individual modules. These contact-tracers have three major limitations in the utility scale power plants: First limitation – Weather and Accuracy: The mass-produced commercial contact-tracers cannot obtain the I-V curves of both string and its modules (as high as 30 modules), almost simultaneously (within about 5 minutes) at, practically, a single irradiance level, a single module temperature, a single spectrum and a single AOI (angle of incidence). This inability of the contact-tracers forces the testing personnel to wait for an extended or multiple sunny (>800 W/m 2 ) duration(s) of a cloudy day. This is a serious limitation as waiting for the sunny conditions or days is a huge practical challenge in almost all locations, except desert locations. Also, since the I-V curves are obtained at different prevailing weather conditions, it becomes critical to translate all the measured I-V curves of 30 modules in the string to a single test condition, for example STC (standard test conditions), so the underperforming modules can be identified. The accuracy of translation equations is heavily influenced by the irradiance level and temperature, spectral and AOI ranges; Second limitation - Safety: The second limitation is related to the high voltage electrical safety of the test personnel during disconnecting and reconnecting of individual modules or cable connectors from the string under daylight conditions and damaging of the original module connectors (especially the field aged connectors) during the disconnecting and reconnecting process; Third limitation – Labor: The third limitation is related to the enormous amount of time and hardship for the test personnel under prevailing (often harsh) protracted field conditions. This project was executed by Arizona State University in collaboration with its industry partner, PV Measurements Inc. (PVM). To mitigate all the three challenges of the state-of-the-art equipment indicated above, we utilized a non-contact I-V (NCIV) tracer approach. In this approach, we utilized an electrostatic voltmeter (ESV) and voltage sensor/probe combination to obtain I-V curves. The ESV units are extensively used in the high voltage industry but not in the PV industry. To obtain the simultaneous I-V curves of the substrings and modules within a string, we utilized multiple commercial ESV-Probe sets. In this approach, we utilized a non-contact voltage sensor (called, Probe) placed on the glass surface of the module (above the last cell of the module). This probe senses the module voltage (with respect to ground) through measured capacitance which is dictated by the surface charges (which in turn is dictated by the module voltage) and transmits the sensed voltage to the voltmeter (called, ESV or NCV, non-contact voltmeter). The current is sensed by a non-contact hall sensor. In a 30-module string, the 30th probe obtains the entire string I-V along with the string I-V obtained by the electronic load. so that the I-V curves of the substrings and modules can be obtained by NCIV without the need of disconnecting the individual modules in the string. The string I-V curves obtained by the electronic load and NCIV can be compared for the accuracy determination. One can use 30 ESV units and 30 Probes to obtain 30 I-V curves of a 30-module string or use just 5 ESV units and 30 Probes in conjunction with 5 six-channel switchboxes (called, 6:1 switchboxes). To reduce the equipment cost, we utilized the 6:1 switchbox approach so the number of ESV units is reduced from 30 to 5. The approaches, achievements and challenges of this project are detailed in this report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enhanced Distributed Solar Photovoltaic Deployment via Barrier Mitigation or Removal in the Western Interconnection (Final Technical Report)

In 2017, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) 2026 Common Case projected that distributed solar PV deployment in the Western U.S. would meet or exceed 16,106 MW of installed capacity by 2026. Of this total, 12,218 MW was projected to be deployed in California and another 3,888 MW was projected to be deployed across Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. However, WIEB recognized that barriers to distributed solar PV deployment could cause the region to fall short of these projections. WIEB identified three types of perceived barriers that might interfere with the deployment of distributed solar PV generation in the West, including: (1) interconnection barriers; (2) utility rate-design barriers; and (3) reliability barriers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

PACE: Producing Algae for Co-Products and Energy (Final Report)

The PACE (Producing Algae for Co-Products and Energy) consortium was comprised of scientists from national laboratories (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), research institutions (New Mexico Consortium), academic institutions (Arizona State University, Colorado School of Mines, Colorado State University, Washington State University) and private companies (Reliance Industries, PanPacific, Genifuel and Sonosop) dedicated to making process improvements in algal biotechnology, with an emphasis on renewable fuels and co-products from biomass. The scope of work was focused on improving algal cultivation and processing to achieve an overall energy return on investment (EROI) >3, a carbon index less than 55 grams carbon dioxide per megajoule (gCO2/MJ) and a nearly two-fold reduction in fuel cost to ≤$5 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (gge). The PACE project was originally focused on using two strains of Chlorella sorokiniana (Cs1412 and Cs1230), but later grew to encompass marine strains of Nannochloropsis and algal production strains from Reliance Industries Limited (RIL).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

International ACM Symposium on High Performance Parallel and Distributed Computing Conference for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020

The 28th ACM HPDC Conference was held in Phoenix, Arizona, June 24 and 28, 2019 (hpdc.org/2019), that was colocated with ACM FCRC 2019 (fcrc.acm.org). During the conference, Prof. Geoffrey Fox, Indiana University, was given the HPDC Achievement Award for 2019. Prof gave a keynote speech entitled “Perspectives on High-Performance Computing in a Big Data World. In addition, to the keynote speakers from HPDC and FCRC conferences, the conference organized successfully five workshops and one Ph.D. forum. The ACM FCRC had a total of 2700 attendees, and HPDC had a total of 120 attendees that included 32 students. We have used the DOE sponsorship to support the conference proceedings that acknowledge the DoE support and partially supported the travel to the HPDC PC meeting, Keynote speaker accommodation, best papers, presentation and poster award.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Savings in Action: Lessons from Observed and Modeled Residential Solar Plus Storage Systems

The electric grid is rapidly evolving as small-scale, demand-side resources play increasingly important roles in grid operations and decarbonization. Maximizing the potential of demand-side resources involves incentivizing electricity customers to use those resources in ways that benefit the broader electrical grid. These incentives depend largely on the electricity cost savings that customers can realize from demand-side resource adoption. Determining these potential cost savings is a complex task. Cost savings depend on numerous factors, including the characteristics of different technologies, the algorithms that control these devices, system performance, customer behavior, electricity rate structures, and climatic factors. Another challenge is that estimated cost savings are frequently based on modeled rather than observed system performance, particularly in the academic literature. In this study, we begin to fill the gap in empirical research of demand-side resources using data from a new construction residential community equipped with rooftop solar and storage (S+S) in Arizona. We use these data to analyze the factors that determine customer electricity cost savings and emissions impacts of S+S in the real world. We then compare these data to modeled system performance to understand how models deviate from real-world outcomes. Based on these findings, we explore ways to improve such models and, conversely, use modeled results to suggest improvements to actual S+S deployment. The results of these analyses can be summarized in four key findings: 1) rate structures play a central role in the grid and customer value of demand-side resources; 2) certain customers can benefit more from demand-side resource adoption than others; 3) modeled battery dispatch and sizing reveals opportunities for additional cost savings; and 4) optimal dispatches can reduce grid emissions while maximizing bill savings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Economic Analysis of Changes in Hydropower Operations at the Flaming Gorge Dam and the Aspinall Unit Due to the Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program

This report was prepared by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) in support of an economic analysis of operational restrictions at the Flaming Gorge Dam (FG) and the Aspinall Unit conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Western Area Power Administration (WAPA). WAPA markets electricity produced at hydroelectric facilities operated by the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation). The facilities known collectively as the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP) include dams equipped for power generation on the Colorado, Green, Gunnison, and Rio Grande Rivers and on Plateau Creek in the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. This report presents detailed findings of an economic analysis of operational restrictions implemented at FG during water years (WYs) 2001 to 2016, and at the Aspinall Cascade during WYs 2013 to 2016. Staff members of Argonne’s Energy Systems Division prepared this document with assistance from staff members of WAPA’s Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) Management Center and Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030

Residential solar and storage markets are growing in the United States. With approximately 1 million new homes constructed every year, this represents a significant opportunity for solar and storage installations. Some homebuilders have begun to build new homes with solar and storage included as a standard offering. It is not clear how solar and storage is incorporated into the new construction process and at what cost. Further, it is unclear what barriers or opportunities exist to scale this model nationwide. To fill this gap in the literature, this research conducts a case study of Mandalay Homes' new solar and storage community in Arizona to gather lessons learned. From this foundation, we further generate a set of pathways to reduce install costs and expand solar and storage market penetration in this sector. To model existing and 2030 solar and storage costs, we use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) bottom-up cost model. This modeling is further informed by 12 interviews conducted with new home builders, solar contractors, and other subject matter expert organizations. Our case study analysis generated three key considerations for other homebuilders including: 1. Educating local permitting, inspection, and in some cases utility officials on solar and storage products, designs, and code compliant building practices may be required. The need for education may decline as more local governments and utilities review and approve solar and storage projects. 2. Incorporating solar and storage systems into the homebuilding process can add complexity and related coordination challenges. This does not need to result in home construction delays, but can result in costly contractor "dry runs" to construction sites. 3. Deploying solar and storage at the time of new construction has significant economies of scale, which can improve the value proposition of the systems. The case study, extant literature, and interviews were used to model both existing and future solar and storage installation costs at time of new construction. Here, we find three key cost reduction opportunities relating to solar and battery storage hardware, customer acquisition, and overhead. If future contractors can maximize the cost reduction opportunities outlined here, residential new construction costs could decline by 8 - 25% by 2030, depending on the modeled scenario. Though we expect costs to decline through 2030, it is unclear which of these scenarios may ultimately appear. Interviewees further identified a variety of barriers across each cost category that could temper the savings shown here. At the same time, interviewees described several pathways to scale the new construction solar and storage market, beyond installation cost savings. Interviewees confirmed that changes in finance, rate design, resilience policies, deployment mandates, and DER aggregation could all support more market adoption than seen today. These findings suggest that there are significant opportunities to expand new construction markets and this research can serve as a baseline to assess progress in this segment through 2030.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗