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At least 181 records · Page 10

Self-Supervised Cloud Classification

Abstract Low-level marine clouds play a pivotal role in Earth’s weather and climate through their interactions with radiation, heat and moisture transport, and the hydrological cycle. These interactions depend on a range of dynamical and microphysical processes that result in a broad diversity of cloud types and spatial structures, and a comprehensive understanding of cloud morphology is critical for continued improvement of our atmospheric modeling and prediction capabilities moving forward. Deep learning has recently accelerated our ability to study clouds using satellite remote sensing, and machine learning classifiers have enabled detailed studies of cloud morphology. A major limitation of deep learning approaches to this problem, however, is the large number of hand-labeled samples that are required for training. This work applies a recently developed self-supervised learning scheme to train a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to map marine cloud imagery to vector embeddings that capture information about mesoscale cloud morphology and can be used for satellite image classification. The model is evaluated against existing cloud classification datasets and several use cases are demonstrated, including training cloud classifiers with very few labeled samples, interrogation of the CNN’s learned internal feature representations, cross-instrument application, and resilience against sensor calibration drift and changing scene brightness. The self-supervised approach learns meaningful internal representations of cloud structures and achieves comparable classification accuracy to supervised deep learning methods without the expense of creating large hand-annotated training datasets. Significance Statement Marine clouds heavily influence Earth’s weather and climate, and improved understanding of marine clouds is required to improve our atmospheric modeling capabilities and physical understanding of the atmosphere. Recently, deep learning has emerged as a powerful research tool that can be used to identify and study specific marine cloud types in the vast number of images collected by Earth-observing satellites. While powerful, these approaches require hand-labeling of training data, which is prohibitively time intensive. This study evaluates a recently developed self-supervised deep learning method that does not require human-labeled training data for processing images of clouds. We show that the trained algorithm performs competitively with algorithms trained on hand-labeled data for image classification tasks. We also discuss potential downstream uses and demonstrate some exciting features of the approach including application to multiple satellite instruments, resilience against changing image brightness, and its learned internal representations of cloud types. The self-supervised technique removes one of the major hurdles for applying deep learning to very large atmospheric datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2

Abstract Prediction systems to enable Earth system predictability research on the subseasonal time scale have been developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) using two configurations that differ in their atmospheric components. One system uses the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) with its top near 40 km, referred to as CESM2(CAM6). The other employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 (WACCM6) whose top extends to ∼140 km, and it includes fully interactive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry [CESM2(WACCM6)]. Both systems are utilized to carry out subseasonal reforecasts for the 1999–2020 period following the Subseasonal Experiment’s (SubX) protocol. Subseasonal prediction skill from both systems is compared to those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CFSv2 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational models. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) show very similar subseasonal prediction skill of 2-m temperature, precipitation, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation to its previous version and to the NOAA CFSv2 model. Overall, skill of CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) is a little lower than that of the ECMWF system. In addition to typical output provided by subseasonal prediction systems, CESM2 reforecasts provide comprehensive datasets for predictability research of multiple Earth system components, including three-dimensional output for many variables, and output specific to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere (MLT) region from CESM2(WACCM6). It is shown that sudden stratosphere warming events, and the associated variability in the MLT, can be predicted ∼10 days in advance. Weekly real-time forecasts and reforecasts with CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) are freely available. Significance Statement We describe here the design and prediction skill of two subseasonal prediction systems based on two configurations of the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2): CESM2 with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 [CESM2(CAM6)] and CESM 2 with Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 [CESM2(WACCM6)] as its atmospheric component. These two systems provide a foundation for community-model based subseasonal prediction research. The CESM2(WACCM6) system provides a novel capability to explore the predictability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. Both CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) demonstrate subseasonal surface prediction skill comparable to that of the NOAA CFSv2 model, and a little lower than that of the ECMWF forecasting system. CESM2 reforecasts provide a comprehensive dataset for predictability research of multiple aspects of the Earth system, including the whole atmosphere up to 140 km, land, and sea ice. Weekly real-time forecasts, reforecasts, and models are publicly available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining Tropical Convection Features at Storm-Resolving Scales Over the Maritime Continent Region

Global Storm Resolving Models (GSRMs) provide a way to understand weather and climate events across scales for better-informed climate impacts. In this work, we apply the recently developed and validated CAM (Community Atmosphere Model)—MPAS (Model for Prediction Across Scales) modeling framework, based on the open-source Community Earth System Model (CESM2), to examine the tropical convection features at the storm resolving scale over the Maritime Continent region at 3 km horizontal spacing. We target two global numerical experiments during the winter season of 2018 for comparison with observation in the region. Here we focus on the investigation of the representations of the convective systems, precipitation statistics, and tropical cyclone behaviors. We found that regional-refined experiments show more accurate precipitation distributions, diurnal cycles, and better agreement with observations for tropical cyclone features in terms of intensity and strength statistics. We expect the exploration of this work will further advance the development and use of the storm-resolving model in precipitation predictions across scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observational evidence for Criegee intermediate oligomerization reactions relevant to aerosol formation in the troposphere

Criegee intermediates are reactive intermediates that are implicated in transforming the composition of Earth’s troposphere and in the formation of secondary organic aerosol, impacting Earth’s radiation balance, air quality and human health. Yet, direct identification of their signatures in the field remains elusive. Here, from particulate and gas-phase mass-spectrometric measurements in the Amazon rainforest, we identify sequences of masses consistent with the expected signatures of oligomerization of the CH 2 OO Criegee intermediate, a process implicated in ozonolysis-driven aerosol formation. In this study, we assess the potential contributions of oligomerization through laboratory ozonolysis experiments, direct kinetic studies of Criegee intermediate reactions, and high-level theoretical calculations. Global atmospheric models built on these kinetics results indicate that Criegee intermediate chemistry may play a larger role in altering the composition of Earth’s troposphere than is captured in current atmospheric models, especially in areas of high humidity. However, the models still capture only a relatively small fraction of the observed signatures, suggesting considerable underestimates of Criegee intermediate concentrations and reactivity and/or the dominance of other, presently uncharacterized, oxidation mechanisms. Resolving the remaining uncertainties in emission inventories and the effects of atmospheric water vapour on key chemical reactions will be required to definitively assess the role of Criegee intermediate oligomerization reactions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

APOGEE Data and Spectral Analysis from SDSS Data Release 16: Seven Years of Observations Including First Results from APOGEE-South

The spectral analysis and data products in Data Release 16 (DR16; 2019 December) from the high-resolution near-infrared Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE)-2/Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)-IV survey are described. Compared to the previous APOGEE data release (DR14; 2017 July), APOGEE DR16 includes about 200,000 new stellar spectra, of which 100,000 are from a new southern APOGEE instrument mounted on the 2.5 m du Pont telescope at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. DR16 includes all data taken up to 2018 August, including data released in previous data releases. All of the data have been re-reduced and re-analyzed using the latest pipelines, resulting in a total of 473,307 spectra of 437,445 stars. Changes to the analysis methods for this release include, but are not limited to, the use of MARCS model atmospheres for calculation of the entire main grid of synthetic spectra used in the analysis, a new method for filling “holes” in the grids due to unconverged model atmospheres, and a new scheme for continuum normalization. Abundances of the neutron-capture element Ce are included for the first time. A new scheme for estimating uncertainties of the derived quantities using stars with multiple observations has been applied, and calibrated values of surface gravities for dwarf stars are now supplied. Compared to DR14, the radial velocities derived for this release more closely match those in the Gaia DR2 database, and a clear improvement in the spectral analysis of the coolest giants can be seen. The reduced spectra as well as the result of the analysis can be downloaded using links provided on the SDSS DR16 web page.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Estimating Ocean Observation Impacts on Coupled Atmosphere‐Ocean Models Using Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO)

Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) is a technique that can efficiently identify the beneficial/detrimental impacts of every observation in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA). While EFSO has been successfully employed on atmospheric DA, it has never been applied to ocean or coupled DA due to the lack of a suitable error norm for oceanic variables. This study introduces a new density-based error norm incorporating sea temperature and salinity forecast errors, making EFSO applicable to ocean DA for the first time. We implemented the oceanic EFSO on the CFSv2-LETKF and investigated the impact of ocean observations under a weakly coupled DA framework. By removing the detrimental ocean observations detected by EFSO, the CFSv2 forecasts were significantly improved, showing the validation of impact estimation and the great potential of EFSO to be extended as a data selection criterion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resource Assessment for Distributed Wind Energy: An Evaluation of Best-Practice Methods in the Continental US

Current wind resources within the United States (US) indicate a potential to profitably install nearly 1,400 gigawatts of distributed wind (DW) capacity. This amount is equivalent to over half of the United States’ current energy demand from electricity, making it enough to power millions of homes and businesses and replace countless fossil fuel-based generating plants. Despite the potential growth of DW in the US, deployments are presently hindered by a lack of confidence in resource estimation methods. One potential challenge is that smaller-scale turbines, with hub heights of 40 meters or less, are disproportionately impacted by obstacles such as buildings and vegetation. These obstacles may produce complex wake effects, best modeled with high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models that are too computationally expensive to use for routine siting and resource assessment. Thus, installers today make use of heuristics and simple equations to approximate the impact of obstacles while also leveraging long-term resource data from commercial or publicly available atmospheric models. This study evaluates these historical and commonly used methods alongside new lower-order obstacle models produced from CFD simulations and measurement-based bias correction. The preliminary results from this study show the importance of taking care in the choice and application of mesoscale atmospheric models and the significant value of bias correction using measurements from nearby meteorological towers. Detailed obstacle modeling provides only modest additional gains in performance and, in some cases, can add error, especially at sites where turbines have already been located to avoid obvious impact from upwind obstacles. These findings reinforce the importance of collecting in situ measurements and suggest that obstacle models may be better applied in practice to automated or computer-aided siting, rather than in economic wind resource assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Deep Learning Parameterization of Vertical Wind Velocity Variability via Constrained Adversarial Training

Atmospheric models with typical resolution in the tenths of kilometers cannot resolve the dynamics of air parcel ascent, which varies on scales ranging from tens to hundreds of meters. Small-scale wind fluctuations are thus characterized by a subgrid distribution of vertical wind velocity W with standard deviation σ W . The parameterization of σ W is fundamental to the representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, yet it is poorly constrained. Using a novel deep learning technique, this work develops a new parameterization for σ W merging data from global storm-resolving model simulations, high-frequency retrievals of W , and climate reanalysis products. The parameterization reproduces the observed statistics of σ W and leverages learned physical relations from the model simulations to guide extrapolation beyond the observed domain. Incorporating observational data during the training phase was found to be critical for its performance. The parameterization can be applied online within large-scale atmospheric models, or offline using output from weather forecasting and reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

sta-imex (scripts to investigate stability of IMEX methods)

Set of Matlab scripts to investigate properties of IMEX time stepping methods. Scripts include discretization of a system of linearized equations. One script plots numerical dispersion against analytical dispersion of the system. Another set of scripts uses the system to break it into stiff and non stiff part to investigate stability of Implicit-Explicit Runge-Kutta methods. Scripts are based on Thuburn, J. and Woollings, T. J., Vertical Discretizations for Compressible Euler Equation Atmospheric Models Giving Optimal Representation of Normal Modes , 2005 and Lock, S.-J. and Wood, N. and Weller, H., Numerical analyses of Runge-Kutta implicit-explicit schemes for horizontally explicit, vertically implicit solutions of atmospheric models, 2014 expanding ideas from these two papers. Scripts are used to develop IMEX schemes. SAND2020-12594 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Guba, Oksana↗

Modeling Competing Line-broadening Mechanisms in Neutron Star Atmospheres: Interference between Motional Stark and Ion Broadening

Neutron star surfaces have extremely high magnetic fields. In the atmosphere, the broadening of spectral lines will be substantial from the dense plasma as well as from the magnetic field. One broadening mechanism of note is due to the motional Stark effect (MSE)—an additional electric field that arises from the motion of the atom in the magnetic field. However, approximate formulae are often used to construct atmosphere models, and the MSE is assumed to be the dominant line-broadening mechanism even in ions. Detailed pressure-broadening models in these extreme magnetic fields are now currently being developed. In these more detailed models, it was suggested that the MSE may not be as large as previously predicted. If correct, this hypothesis implies that neutron star line widths might be dominated by pressure broadening rather than by motional Stark broadening. We find that, in the absence of plasma perturbations, for typical magnetic fields (B = 10 12 G), mid-Z elements, such as oxygen, have motional Stark widths of order 1 eV for transitions between dipole-allowed transitions from the ground state, though higher temperatures and transitions to higher-energy states are expected to have more broadening. The MSE also breaks down selection rules, giving rise to forbidden transitions, which have much larger widths. When plasma perturbations are included, we find that the plasma perturbation and motional Stark processes are not independent and, as a result, the spectral lines become narrow in a nontrivial way and display harmonics of the ion cyclotron frequency.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Numerical Modeling of Atmospheric Rime Ice Accretion on an Airfoil Using an Eulerian Approach

This paper presents an approach to numerically simulate the inherently unsteady rime ice accretion problem on a two-dimensional airfoil and elucidate the associated variations under different icing conditions. The airflow field and the water impingement on the airfoil are obtained based on an Eulerian two-phase model. A dynamic mesh strategy is employed to unsteadily account for the changes in the ice profile and its impact on the air and droplet flow by continuously reconstructing the computational grid at each time-step through smoothing and layering mechanisms. All main icing modules including the airflow field, droplet trajectory, icing thickness profile, and mesh management are fully coupled within the same computational framework without resorting to any external tools. Classical icing theory is employed to model the rime ice roughness, and it is assumed that the ice accretes in a direction normal to the airfoil surface. The governing Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) conservation equations along with the energy and continuity equations are solved to produce the velocity and temperature fields. A convective film heat transfer coefficient is computed based on the surface heat flux and a recovery temperature which takes into account the dissipative heat release in the boundary layer in the vicinity of the airfoil surface. With the implemented strategy and calculating the convective heat transfer coefficient, the water film thickness is also calculated along with the ice shape. Furthermore, the model is validated by comparing the local collection efficiency distribution and ice shape with experimental data, and the results show that the implemented approach provides acceptable predictions of ice accretion profiles and rates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

On the Dependence of Simulated Convection on Domain Size in CRMs

Abstract We present a heuristic model to explain the suppression of deep convection in convection‐resolving models (CRMs) with a small number of grid columns, such as those used in super‐parameterized or multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) general circulation models (GCM) of the atmosphere. Domains with few grid columns require greater instability to sustain convection because they force a large convective fraction, driving strong compensating subsidence warming. Updraft dilution, which is stronger for reduced horizontal grid spacing, enhances this effect. Thus, suppression of deep convection in CRMs with few grid columns can be reduced by increasing grid spacing. Radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations using standalone CRM simulations with the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) and using GCM‐coupled CRM simulations with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)‐MMF confirm the heuristic model results.

CRM↗

Moderate-resolution K-band Spectroscopy of Substellar Companion κ Andromedae b

We present moderate-resolution (R ∼ 4000) K-band spectra of the “super-Jupiter,” κ Andromedae b. The data were taken with the OSIRIS integral field spectrograph at Keck Observatory. The spectra reveal resolved molecular lines from H{sub 2}O and CO, and are compared to a custom PHOENIX atmosphere model grid appropriate for young planetary-mass objects. We fit the data using a Markov chain Monte Carlo forward-modeling method. Using a combination of our moderate-resolution spectrum and low-resolution, broadband data from the literature, we derive an effective temperature of T {sub eff} = 1950–2150 K, a surface gravity of logg=3.5--4.5, and a metallicity of [M/H] = −0.2–0.0. These values are consistent with previous estimates from atmospheric modeling and the currently favored young age of the system (<50 Myr). We derive a C/O ratio of 0.70{sub −0.24}{sup +0.09} for the source, broadly consistent with the solar C/O ratio. This, coupled with the slightly subsolar metallicity, implies a composition consistent with that of the host star, and is suggestive of formation by a rapid process. The subsolar metallicity of κ Andromedae b is also consistent with predictions of formation via gravitational instability. Further constraints on formation of the companion will require measurement of the C/O ratio of κ Andromedae A. We also measure the radial velocity of κ Andromedae b for the first time, with a value of −1.4 ± 0.9 km s{sup −1} relative to the host star. We find that the derived radial velocity is consistent with the estimated high eccentricity of κ Andromedae b.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermodynamically consistent versions of approximations used in modelling moist air

Abstract Some existing approaches to modelling the thermodynamics of moist air make approximations that break thermodynamic consistency , such that the resulting thermodynamics does not obey the first and second laws or has other inconsistencies. Recently, an approach to avoid such inconsistency has been suggested: the use of thermodynamic potentials in terms of their natural variables , from which all thermodynamic quantities and relationships (equations of state) are derived. In this article, we develop this approach for unapproximated moist‐air thermodynamics and two widely used approximations: the constant‐ approximation and the dry heat capacities approximation. The (consistent) constant‐ approximation is particularly attractive because it leads to, with the appropriate choice of thermodynamic variable, adiabatic dynamics that depend only on total mass and are independent of the breakdown between water forms. Additionally, a wide variety of material from different sources in the literature on thermodynamics in atmospheric modelling is brought together. It is hoped that this article provides a comprehensive reference for the use of thermodynamic potentials in atmospheric modelling, especially for the three systems considered here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fragmentation in Collisions of Snow with Graupel/Hail: New Formulation from Field Observations

Abstract Secondary ice production (SIP) has been attributed to the generation of most ice particles observed in precipitating clouds with cloud tops warmer than −36°C, from various aircraft- and ground-based field observations across the globe. One of the known SIP mechanisms is fragmentation during collisions among ice particles. It has been studied with our theoretical formulation, which has been applied in microphysical schemes of atmospheric models in a few studies. These have predicted an extensive impact on cloud glaciation and radiative properties. However, there has been a lack of experimental field studies, especially involving naturally falling snowflakes, to better understand this particular mechanism of SIP. This study reports the first field measurements with modern technology for fragmentation during collisions between naturally falling snowflakes and graupel/hail particles. This was observed with an innovatively designed portable chamber that was deployed outdoors in northern Sweden. Applying the observations from this field-based study, we optimized the existing formulation for predicting numbers of fragments from collisions of snow with graupel/hail. The observations show the average numbers of fragments per collision for dendritic (3–12 mm) and nondendritic (1–3 mm) snow were about 12 and 1, respectively. This represents a boost of predicted fragment numbers relative to our original formulation published in 2017. The updated formulation for breakup in ice–ice collisions can be implemented in the microphysical schemes of atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity of “Middle Atmosphere” Chemistry Configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6))

Abstract Simulating whole atmosphere dynamics, chemistry, and physics is computationally expensive. It can require high vertical resolution throughout the middle and upper atmosphere, as well as a comprehensive chemistry and aerosol scheme coupled to radiation physics. An unintentional outcome of the development of one of the most sophisticated and hence computationally expensive model configurations is that it often excludes a broad community of users with limited computational resources. Here, we analyze two configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6)) with simplified “middle atmosphere” chemistry at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolutions. Using observations, a reanalysis, and direct model comparisons, we find that these configurations generally reproduce the climate, variability, and climate sensitivity of the 1° nominal horizontal resolution configuration with comprehensive chemistry. While the background stratospheric aerosol optical depth is elevated in the middle atmosphere configurations as compared to the comprehensive chemistry configuration, it is comparable among all configurations during volcanic eruptions. For any purposes other than those needing an accurate representation of tropospheric organic chemistry and secondary organic aerosols, these simplified chemistry configurations deliver reliable simulations of the whole atmosphere that require 35% and 86% fewer computational resources at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolution, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving vertical detail in simulated temperature and humidity data using machine learning

Atmospheric models used for weather forecasting and climate predictions discretise the atmosphere onto a vertical grid. There are however atmospheric phenomena that occur on scales smaller than the thickness of those model layers. The formation of low-level clouds due to temperature inversions is an example. This leads to atmospheric models underestimating, or even missing, these clouds and their radiative effects. Using radiosonde observations as training data, a machine learning model is used to improve the vertical detail of modelled profiles of temperature and specific humidity. In addition, a physics-informed machine learning model is developed and compared to the traditional approach; showing improvements in the cloud fraction profiles calculated from its predictions. The vertically enhanced profiles also improve the representation of layers of convective inhibition and anomalous refractivity gradients. This work facilitates targeted improvements to the representation of certain atmospheric processes without the burden of increased memory and computational cost from increasing vertical resolution throughout the whole model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗