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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining long‐term model predictions for woody growth using tropical tree rings

The strength and persistence of the tropical carbon sink hinges on the long-term responses of woody growth to climatic variations and increasing CO 2 . However, the sensitivity of tropical woody growth to these environmental changes is poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in growth predictions. Here, we used tree ring records from a Southeast Asian tropical forest to constrain ED2.2-hydro, a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit vegetation demography. Specifically, we assessed individual-level woody growth responses to historical climate variability and increases in atmospheric CO 2 (C a ). When forced with historical C a , ED2.2-hydro reproduced the magnitude of increases in intercellular CO 2 concentration (a major determinant of photosynthesis) estimated from tree ring carbon isotope records. In contrast, simulated growth trends were considerably larger than those obtained from tree rings, suggesting that woody biomass production efficiency (WBPE = woody biomass production:gross primary productivity) was overestimated by the model. The estimated WBPE decline under increasing C a based on model-data discrepancy was comparable to or stronger than (depending on tree species and size) the observed WBPE changes from a multi-year mature-forest CO 2 fertilization experiment. In addition, we found that ED2.2-hydro generally overestimated climatic sensitivity of woody growth, especially for late-successional plant functional types. The model-data discrepancy in growth sensitivity to climate was likely caused by underestimating WBPE in hot and dry years due to commonly used model assumptions on carbon use efficiency and allocation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to constrain model predictions of individual tree-level growth sensitivity to C a and climate against tropical tree-ring data. Our results suggest that improving model processes related to WBPE is crucial to obtain better predictions of tropical forest responses to droughts and increasing C a . Finally, more accurate parameterization of WBPE will likely reduce the stimulation of woody growth by C a rise predicted by biosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Viral infections likely mediate microbial controls on ecosystem responses to global warming

Abstract Climate change is affecting how energy and matter flow through ecosystems, thereby altering global carbon and nutrient cycles. Microorganisms play a fundamental role in carbon and nutrient cycling and are thus an integral link between ecosystems and climate. Here, we highlight a major black box hindering our ability to anticipate ecosystem climate responses: viral infections within complex microbial food webs. We show how understanding and predicting ecosystem responses to warming could be challenging—if not impossible—without accounting for the direct and indirect effects of viral infections on different microbes (bacteria, archaea, fungi, protists) that together perform diverse ecosystem functions. Importantly, understanding how rising temperatures associated with climate change influence viruses and virus-host dynamics is crucial to this task, yet is severely understudied. In this perspective, we (i) synthesize existing knowledge about virus-microbe-temperature interactions and (ii) identify important gaps to guide future investigations regarding how climate change might alter microbial food web effects on ecosystem functioning. To provide real-world context, we consider how these processes may operate in peatlands—globally significant carbon sinks that are threatened by climate change. We stress that understanding how warming affects biogeochemical cycles in any ecosystem hinges on disentangling complex interactions and temperature responses within microbial food webs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Visioning a Global Carbon Monitoring System That Can Quantify and Attribute Ocean Carbon Dioxide Removal: Where Are We Now and How Might We Get There?

As atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the resulting social costs rise, it is increasingly important to conduct research on technical approaches to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at the gigaton scale. One highly uncertain but perhaps plausible solution is ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which encompasses a suite of proposed techniques for increasing the net flux of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean. As reflected in a 2022 National Academy of Sciences report, interest in ocean CDR is rapidly growing, and new stakeholders from a wide range of fields want access to air-sea CO2 flux and ocean carbon information to understand the potential risks and benefits of ocean CDR. Moreover, there is an urgent need for research to develop a scientific basis to support these societal needs. At the same time, there is a growing need to vision a global carbon monitoring system that can quantify natural and anthropogenic perturbations in the air-sea CO2 flux to quantify and attribute the impacts of ocean CDR efforts on the ocean carbon sink. Here, we propose to present nascent efforts at the Ames Research Center to leverage NASA's unique remote sensing and computational capabilities and expertise in basic and applied Earth science to meet the needs of the ocean CDR stakeholder community as represented by the OceanVisions network. Specifically we aim to develop a global ocean CDR scenario explorer with two objectives: 1) to make quantitative estimates of the air-sea CO2 flux and its uncertainty more accessible to a wide range of users, and 2) to enable these diverse users to interactively explore the uncertain impacts on air-sea CO2 fluxes in a wide range of ocean CDR scenarios. The information would be provided to users via a public graphical user interface, and the results would be based on a new synthesis of scientific observations and knowledge in a global ocean mixed layer inverse model run on supercomputers. The proposed tool aims to fill a unique and valuable niche for users and the scientific community by balancing tradeoffs between user interests, scientific knowledge, and technical capabilities. We will conclude by visioning the potential implications for a global carbon monitoring system in a world with gigaton scale ocean CDR.

Global↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forest structure and solar-induced fluorescence across intact and degraded forests in the Amazon

Tropical forest degradation (e.g., anthropogenic disturbances such as selective logging and fires) alters forest structure and function and influences the forest's carbon sink. In this study, we explored structure-function relationships across a variety of degradation levels in the southern Brazilian Amazon by 1) investigating how forest structural properties vary as a function of degradation history using airborne lidar data; 2) assessing the effects of degradation on solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) seasonality using TROPOMI data; and 3) quantifying the contribution of structural variables to SIF using multiple regression models with stepwise selection of lidar metrics. Forest degradation history was obtained through Landsat time-series classification. We found that fire, logging, and time since disturbance were major determinants of forest structure, and that forests affected by fires experienced larger variability in leaf area index (LAI), canopy height and vertical structure relative to logged and intact forests. Moreover, only recently burned forests showed significantly depressed SIF during the dry season compared to intact forests. Canopy height and the vertical distribution of foliage were the best predictors of SIF. Unexpectedly, we found that wet-season SIF was higher in active regenerating forests (~ 4 years after fires or logging) compared with intact forests, despite lower LAI. Furthermore, our findings help to elucidate the mechanisms of carbon accumulation in anthropogenically disturbed tropical forests and indicate that they can capture large amounts of carbon while recovering.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach

Background and Aims Tropical forests exchange more carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) with the atmosphere than any other terrestrial biome. Yet, uncertainty in the projected carbon balance over the next century is roughly three times greater for the tropics than other for ecosystems. Our limited knowledge of tropical plant physiological responses, including photosynthetic, to climate change is a substantial source of uncertainty in our ability to forecast the global terrestrial carbon sink. Methods Here, we used a meta-analytic approach, focusing on tropical photosynthetic temperature responses, to address this knowledge gap. Our dataset, gleaned from 18 independent studies, included leaf-level light-saturated photosynthetic (A sat ) temperature responses from 108 woody species, with additional temperature parameters (35 species) and rates (250 species) of both maximum rates of electron transport (J max ) and Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ). We investigated how these parameters responded to mean annual temperature (MAT), temperature variability, aridity and elevation, as well as also how responses differed among successional strategy, leaf habit and light environment. Key Results Optimum temperatures for A sat (T optA ) and J max (T optJ ) increased with MAT but not for V cmax (T optV ). Although photosynthetic rates were higher for ‘light’ than ‘shaded’ leaves, light conditions did not generate differences in temperature response parameters. T optA did not differ with successional strategy, but early successional species had ~4 °C wider thermal niches than mid/late species. Semi-deciduous species had ~1 °C higher T optA than broadleaf evergreen species. Most global modelling efforts consider all tropical forests as a single ‘broadleaf evergreen’ functional type, but our data show that tropical species with different leaf habits display distinct temperature responses that should be included in modelling efforts. Conclusions This novel research will inform modelling efforts to quantify tropical ecosystem carbon cycling and provide more accurate representations of how these key ecosystems will respond to altered temperature patterns in the face of climate warming.

Carter, Kelsey R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual carbon sequestration and loss rates under altered hydrology and fire regimes in southeastern USA pocosin peatlands

Peatlands drained for agriculture or forestry are susceptible to the rapid release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) through enhanced microbial decomposition and increased frequency of deep peat fires. We present evidence that rewetting drained subtropical wooded peatlands (STWPs) along the southeastern USA coast, primarily pocosin bogs, could prevent significant carbon (C) losses. To quantify GHG emissions and storage from drained and rewetted pocosin we used eddy covariance techniques, the first such estimates that have been applied to this major bog type, on a private drained (PD) site supplemented by static chamber measurements at PD and Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge. Net ecosystem exchange measurements showed that the loss was 21.2 Mg CO2 ha –1 year –1 (1 Mg = 10 6 g) in the drained pocosin. Under a rewetted scenario, where the annual mean water table depth (WTD) decreased from 60 to 30 cm, the C loss was projected to fall to 2 Mg CO 2 ha –1 year –1 , a 94% reduction. If the WTD was 20 cm, the peatlands became a net carbon sink (–3.3 Mg CO2 ha –1 year –1 ). Hence, net C reductions could reach 24.5 Mg CO 2 ha –1 year –1 , and when scaled up to the 4000 ha PD site nearly 100,000 Mg CO 2 year –1 of creditable C could be amassed. We conservatively estimate among the 0.75 million ha of southeastern STWPs, between 450 and 770 km 2 could be rewet, reducing annual GHG emissions by 0.96–1.6 Tg (1 Tg = 10 12 g) of CO 2 , through suppressed microbial decomposition and 1.7–2.8 Tg via fire prevention, respectively. Despite covering <0.01% of US land area, rewetting drained pocosin can potentially provide 2.4% of the annual CO 2 nationwide reduction target of 0.18 Pg (1 Pg = 10 15 g). Finally, suggesting pocosin restoration can contribute disproportionately to the US goal of achieving net-zero emission by 2050.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon-sequestration gradient insulation composites

The massive use of carbon-sequestration building materials promises a potential global carbon sink in decarbonizing the building industry. Renewable biogenic materials from abundant agriculture waste for building practice have been around over thousands of years. However, in addition to their flammability and moisture problems, addressing their low thermal and structural performance is also becoming indispensable and urgent when it comes to environmentally sustainable and energy-efficient buildings. Here, we report a nature-inspired biogenic gradient insulation composite with an optimized silica concentration of 30 wt %, a density of 0.246 g/cm 3 , and a porosity of 86%. The gradient hybrid composite exhibits a thermal conductivity of 28.2 mW m -1 K -1 , which is the lowest achieved under optimal preparation conditions. Here, it also shows a flexural modulus of 590 MPa for the aerogel-rich layer without surface modification, and it demonstrates superior fire retardancy and superhydrophobicity after surface treatment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerated dryland expansion regulates future variability in dryland gross primary production

Drylands cover 41% of the Earth’s land surface and are the largest source of interannual variability in the global carbon sink. While drylands are projected to experience an accelerated expansion over the next century, the implications of this expansion and degradation for variability in their gross primary production (GPP) remain elusive. Here we show that total dryland GPP by 2100 will increase by 12 ± 3% relative to the 2010–2014 baseline. Because drylands will largely expand into formerly more productive ecosystems, this increase in dryland GPP may not increase total global GPP. Further, GPP per unit dryland area will decrease as degradation of historical drylands outpaces the higher GPP of expanded drylands. Dryland expansion and climate-induced conversions among sub-humid, semi-arid, arid, and hyper-arid subtypes will lead to substantial changes in regional and subtype contributions to global dryland GPP variability. Our results highlight the vulnerability of dryland subtypes to more frequent and severe climate extremes and suggest that strong regional variations will require different mitigation strategies in different regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic subcanopy leaf traits drive resistance of net primary production across a disturbance severity gradient

Across the globe, the forest carbon sink is increasingly vulnerable to an expanding array of low- to moderate-severity disturbances. However, some forest ecosystems exhibit functional resistance (i.e., the capacity of ecosystems to continue functioning as usual) following disturbances such as extreme weather events and insect or fungal pathogen outbreaks. Unlike severe disturbances (e.g., stand-replacing wildfires), moderate severity disturbances do not always result in near-term declines in forest production because of the potential for compensatory growth, including enhanced subcanopy production. Community-wide shifts in subcanopy plant functional traits, prompted by disturbance-driven environmental change, may play a key mechanistic role in resisting declines in net primary production (NPP) up to thresholds of canopy loss. However, the temporal dynamics of these shifts, as well as the upper limits of disturbance for which subcanopy production can compensate, remain poorly characterized. In this study, we leverage a 4-year dataset from an experimental forest disturbance in northern Michigan to assess subcanopy community trait shifts as well as their utility in predicting ecosystem NPP resistance across a wide range of implemented disturbance severities. Through mechanical girdling of stems, we achieved a gradient of severity from 0% (i.e., control) to 45, 65, and 85% targeted gross canopy defoliation, replicated across four landscape ecosystems broadly representative of the Upper Great Lakes ecoregion. We found that three of four examined subcanopy community weighted mean (CWM) traits including leaf photosynthetic rate (p = 0.04), stomatal conductance (p = 0.07), and the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (p < 0.0001) shifted rapidly following disturbance but before widespread changes in subcanopy light environment triggered by canopy tree mortality. Surprisingly, stimulated subcanopy production fully compensated for upper canopy losses across our gradient of experimental severities, achieving complete resistance (i.e., no significant interannual differences from control) of whole ecosystem NPP even in the 85% disturbance treatment. Additionally, we identified a probable mechanistic switch from nutrient-driven to light-driven trait shifts as disturbance progressed. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed traits such as the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (reNDVI) could be particularly sensitive and robust predictors of production response to disturbance, even across compositionally diverse forests. The potential of leaf spectral indices to predict post-disturbance functional resistance is promising given the capabilities of airborne to satellite remote sensing. We conclude that dynamic functional trait shifts following disturbance can be used to predict production response across a wide range of disturbance severities.

resistance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of salinity on the preservation of biomarkers in hypersaline microbial mat kerogens

Kerogen is the residue that remains after the minerals and organic compounds have been extracted from a rock using acid and organic solvents, respectively [1]. It is not only the largest organic carbon sink in the geological record but the best-preserved fraction due to its recalcitrance and ability to retain syngenetic source information during deposition [2]. Due to the complex, macromolecular, cross-linked polymeric structure of kerogen, it is difficult to analyse intact, often requiring breakdown into smaller subunits through thermal (pyrolysis) or chemical treatment (chemolysis) [3]. Saline and hypersaline environments host diverse microbial communities, which can trap and bind organic matrices such as cellular components (e.g., extracellular polymeric substances, cell wall, peptidoglycan, sheath material, etc.) with sediments, forming layered, laminated structures called microbial mats. Here we present depth profiles of two hypersaline cores through a microbial mat with differing total salinities. We looked at the composition of organic compounds released from kerogen during high temperature, hydrogen-assisted, pyrolysis to understand the effect of salinity on the composition and timing of their incorporation [4]. Field Site: The Exportadora del Sal S. A. (ESSA) saltern of Guerrero Negro (Baja California Sur, Mexico) lies within a typical sabhka environment adjacent to Laguna Ojo de Liebre. Note the spatial extent of the 13 major ponds of the ESSA system. The GN ponds thrive under well-monitored and stable conditions with steady state accretion and degradation of mat layers (around 0.5–1.4 cm per year). Organic mats typically attain up to 10 cm in thickness, depending on the location, which represents about 60 years of growth since these ponds were established. Sedimentation rate is rapid in these non-lithifying and non-mineralising mats, 1–1.5 cm per year. This environment is ideal for investigating in situ lipid preservation and diagenesis without the influence of constantly changing physical parameters. Methods: P4n5 and P5AB cores were collected as ~9 cm and 6.5 cm fresh cores, respectively, in June 2001 and September 2010, respectively from the ESSA saltern. The P4n5 core (9-9.1% salinity) was taken from Pond 4 near 5 and sub-divided into 10 layers. The P5AB core (11.2% salinity) was taken from Pond 5A near 5B and sub-divided into 8 layers. Lyophilised microbial mat powders were solvent-extracted using a modified Bligh-Dyer method and analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Additionally, a subset of layers—layer 4 and layer 7—which represented active biomass and sediment-processed, respectively, were subjected to mild-acid methanolysis. The respective residues from conventional solvent extraction and acid methanolysis were loaded with a molybdenum sulfide catalyst and placed into a stainless-steel reactor. Samples were run on the hydropyrolysis set up (heated to 500 °C with 13-15 MPa of H2 pressure), extracted, and analysed by GC-MS. Results: Molecular profiles from the two ponds were significantly different and reflect the contributions of different photosynthetic and respiratory microbial communities to preserved organic matter. For example, the higher salinity P5AB core showed evidence of greater archaeal inputs (similarly observed in lab culture experiments [5]) as well as potential kerogen-bound carotenoids/carotenoid rearranged products or fragments. A hydrophobic emulsion formed during the acid methanolysis processing of layer 4 from both P4n5 and P5AB and layer 7 of P5AB. Hydropyrolysis of this hydrophobic residues released a greater abundance of polycyclic lipids relative to the pre-extracted control. Implications and Future Work: Catalytic hydropyrolysis of kerogen can rapidly generate abundant saturated pyrolysate products from the bound biomarker pool without altering the structures or stereochemistries of the products [6]. Chemical processing of solvent-extractable residues indicated that cellular matrices such as extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) may play a role in the sequestration of polycyclic lipid biomarkers such as steranes and hopanes. Their higher relative abundance compared to the pre-extracted control in the higher salinity layers and cores preliminarily aligns with this hypothesis, although further experiments are required to confirm this. It has been well-documented that EPS plays an important role in mineralisation, specifically carbonate formation, in microbial ecosystems. EPS can enhance calcium carbonate precipitation by providing diffusion-limited sites that create alkalinity gradients in response to microbial processes [7]. It has been experimentally demonstrated that salinity influences the total amount of EPS (both loosely- and tightly-bound) which increases with increasing salinity [8]. The higher salinity at Guerrero Negro switches the microbial population from filamentous Microcoleus to being dominated by Phormidium, Oscillatoria, and unicellular cyanobacteria. We demonstrated that lipid binding into kerogen via strong covalent linkages occurs at the very earliest stages of sedimentary diagenesis. We are currently investigating the influence of salinity on organic preservation through experimental and modelling approaches. Understanding how key biomarkers transform into preserved organic matter (i.e., from precursor biolipids to bound geolipids) in brine ecosystems will aid the search for organic biosignatures on other planetary bodies, especially Icy Moons and modern Mars.

hypersaline↗
DOE OSTI2020

Defoliation‐induced compensatory transpiration is compromised in SUT4 ‐RNAi Populus

Abstract The tonoplast sucrose transporter PtaSUT4 is well expressed in leaves of Populus tremula × Populus alba (INRA 717‐IB4), and its inhibition by RNA‐interference (RNAi) alters leaf sucrose homeostasis. Whether sucrose partitioning between the vacuole and the cytosol is modulated by PtaSUT4 for specific physiological outcomes in Populus remains unexplored. In this study, partial defoliation was used to elicit compensatory increases in photosynthesis and transpiration by the remaining leaves in greenhouse‐grown poplar. Water uptake, leaf gas exchange properties, growth and nonstructural carbohydrate abundance in source and sink organs were then compared between wild‐type and SUT4 ‐RNAi lines. Partial defoliation increased maximum photosynthesis rates similarly in all lines. There was no indication that source leaf sugar levels changed differently between wild‐type and RNAi plants following partial defoliation. Sink levels of hexose (glucose and fructose) and starch decreased similarly in all lines. Interestingly, plant water uptake after partial defoliation was not as well sustained in RNAi as in wild‐type plants. While the compensatory increase in photosynthesis was similar between genotypes, leaf transpiration increased less robustly in RNAi than wild‐type plants. SUT4‐RNAi and wild‐type source leaves differed constitutively in their bulk modulus of elasticity, a measure of leaf turgor, and storage water capacitance. The data demonstrate that reduced sucrose partitioning due to PtaSUT4 ‐RNAi altered turgor control and compensatory transpiration capacity more strikingly than photosynthesis and sugar export. The results are consistent with the interpretation that SUT4 may control vacuolar turgor independently of sink carbon provisioning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Warming and Elevated CO2 on Stomatal Conductance and Chlorophyll Fluorescence of C3 and C4 Coastal Wetland Species

Abstract Coastal wetland communities provide valuable ecosystem services such as erosion prevention, soil accretion, and essential habitat for coastal wildlife, but are some of the most vulnerable to the threats of climate change. This work investigates the combined effects of two climate stressors, elevated temperature (ambient, + 1.7 °C, + 3.4 °C, and 5.1 °C) and elevated CO 2 ( e CO 2 ), on leaf physiological traits of dominant salt marsh plant species. The research took place at the Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment (SMARTX) at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, which includes two plant communities: a C 3 sedge community and a C 4 grass community. Here we present data collected over five years on rates of stomatal conductance (g s ), quantum efficiency of PSII photochemistry ( F v / F m ), and rates of electron transport (ETR max ). We found that both warming and e CO 2 caused declines in all traits, but the warming effects were greater for the C 3 sedge. This species showed a strong negative stomatal response to warming in 2017 and 2018 (28% and 17% reduction, respectively in + 5.1 °C). However, in later years the negative response to warming was dampened to < 7%, indicating that S. americanus was able to partially acclimate to the warming over time. In 2022, we found that sedges growing in the combined + 5.1 °C e CO 2 plots exhibited more significant declines in g s , F v /F m , and ETR max than in either treatment individually. These results are important for predicting future trends in growth of wetland species, which serve as a large carbon sink that may help mitigate the effects of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Holocene Peatland Carbon Accumulation in North America

Peatlands are a large carbon reservoir. Yet the quantification of their carbon stock still has a large uncertainty due to lacking observational data and well-tested peatland biogeochemistry models. Here, a process-based peatland model was calibrated using long-term peat carbon accumulation data at multiple sites in North America. The model was then applied to quantify the peat carbon accumulation rates and stocks within North America over the last 12,000 years. We estimated that 85–174 Pg carbon was accumulated in North American peatlands over the study period including 0.37–0.76 Pg carbon in subtropical peatlands. During the period from 10,000 to 8,000 years ago, the warmer and wetter conditions might have played an important role in stimulating peat carbon accumulation by enhancing plant photosynthesis. Enhanced peat decomposition due to warming slowed the carbon accumulation through the rest of the Holocene. While recent modeling studies indicate that the northern peatlands will continue to act as a carbon sink in this century, our studies suggest that future enhanced peat decomposition accompanied by peatland areal changes induced by permafrost degradation and other disturbances shall confound the sink and source analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro–Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade–Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean

The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region plays key roles in both meeting global agricultural demands and maintaining carbon sinks due to its abundant land and water resources. In this study we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate the opportunities and challenges posed by two global-scale drivers: agricultural market integration (i.e., reduction of trade barriers) and land-based climate mitigation policy. We evaluate their potential individual and combined impacts on agricultural production and trade revenues across LAC’s economies through mid-century, as well as the resulting impacts on agricultural consumers and integrated land-water-climate systems across the region’s diverse sub-regions. Increased global market integration results in increased agricultural production and trade revenues for many LAC economies driven by their evolving comparative advantages. Climate mitigation measures on CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases increase revenues due to increased agricultural prices from land competition and emissions abatement. The combined outcomes from both drivers are complex and sometimes non-linear, highlighting the importance of understanding the interactions between multiple drivers. Our results show that increased agricultural production and trade opportunities pose significant trade-offs that require careful multi-sectoral planning, such as emissions reduction challenges, potential loss of livestock production when pursuing land-based climate mitigation strategies, increased consumer expenditures, and changes in land-use or water withdrawals, resulting in deforestation or water scarcity pressures. There is considerable heterogeneity in economic and environmental outcomes across LAC sub-regions and agricultural commodities, illustrating the value of considering outcomes at finer scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rainforest-to-pasture conversion stimulates soil methanogenesis across the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon rainforest is a biodiversity hotspot and large terrestrial carbon sink threatened by agricultural conversion. Rainforest-to-pasture conversion stimulates the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The biotic methane cycle is driven by microorganisms; therefore, this study focused on active methane-cycling microorganisms and their functions across land-use types. We collected intact soil cores from three land use types (primary rainforest, pasture, and secondary rainforest) of two geographically distinct areas of the Brazilian Amazon (Santarém, Pará and Ariquemes, Rondônia) and performed DNA stable-isotope probing coupled with metagenomics to identify the active methanotrophs and methanogens. At both locations, we observed a significant change in the composition of the isotope-labeled methane-cycling microbial community across land use types, specifically an increase in the abundance and diversity of active methanogens in pastures. We conclude that a significant increase in the abundance and activity of methanogens in pasture soils could drive increased soil methane emissions. Furthermore, we found that secondary rainforests had decreased methanogenic activity similar to primary rainforests, and thus a potential to recover as methane sinks, making it conceivable for forest restoration to offset greenhouse gas emissions in the tropics. These findings are critical for informing land management practices and global tropical rainforest conservation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dispersal and fire limit Arctic shrub expansion

Abstract Arctic shrub expansion alters carbon budgets, albedo, and warming rates in high latitudes but remains challenging to predict due to unclear underlying controls. Observational studies and models typically use relationships between observed shrub presence and current environmental suitability (bioclimate and topography) to predict shrub expansion, while omitting shrub demographic processes and non-stationary response to changing climate. Here, we use high-resolution satellite imagery across Alaska and western Canada to show that observed shrub expansion has not been controlled by environmental suitability during 1984–2014, but can only be explained by considering seed dispersal and fire. These findings provide the impetus for better observations of recruitment and for incorporating currently underrepresented processes of seed dispersal and fire in land models to project shrub expansion and climate feedbacks. Integrating these dynamic processes with projected fire extent and climate, we estimate shrubs will expand into 25% of the non-shrub tundra by 2100, in contrast to 39% predicted based on increasing environmental suitability alone. Thus, using environmental suitability alone likely overestimates and misrepresents shrub expansion pattern and its associated carbon sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A continental scale analysis reveals widespread root bimodality

An improved understanding of root vertical distribution is crucial for assessing plant-soil-atmosphere interactions and their influence on the land carbon sink. Here, we analyze a continental-scale dataset of fine roots reaching 2 meters depth, spanning from Alaskan tundra to Puerto Rican forests. Contrary to the expectation that fine root abundance decays exponentially with depth, we found root bimodality at ~20% of 44 sites, with secondary biomass peaks often below 1m. Root bimodality was more likely in areas with low total fine root biomass and was more frequent in shrublands than grasslands. Notably, secondary peaks coincided with high soil nitrogen content at depth. Our analyses suggest that deep soil nutrients tend to be underexploited, while root bimodality offers plants a mechanism to tap into deep soil resources. Our findings add to the growing recognition that deep soil dynamics are systematically overlooked, and calls for more research attention to this deep frontier in the face of global environmental change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗