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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Powersheds

Powersheds is an open scientific software project for simulating river–reservoir cascades. It combines the performance of Rust with a friendly Python interface to model storage, pool elevation, head, releases, spills, routing lags, and power generation at hourly resolution. Designed for coupling with power-system models, simulations are driven by plant-level target power schedules and report realized generation after accounting for hydrologic and operational constraints.

Turner, Sean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗
DOE OSTI2026

New physics in multi-lepton tau decays

Dark particles with lepton-flavor-violating couplings to the tau lepton can induce rare neutrinoless $τ$ decays with large final state multiplicities. We study models where transitions of the type $τ^\pm\to \ell^\pm\,ϕ$, with $ϕ$ a light new particle, initiate a chain of decays in the dark sector that terminate with decays into electrons, muons, or pions. These decay cascades appear as rare five or even seven-body $τ$ decays with multiple reconstructable resonances. We survey several representative models: kinetically mixed dark photon, gauged $L_i-L_j$ models, and other more exotic charge assignments such as chiral $U(1)'$ extensions of the Standard Model. The main new ingredient is the possibility of flavor violation at very high scales. In these models, a number of channels that have not yet been searched for experimentally, such as $τ\to 5μ$, $τ\to 3μ\,2e$, $τ\to μ\,4e$, and hadronic channels like $τ\to μ\,4π$, typically dominate over the previously-considered signatures such as $τ\to 3μ$. While some of the models, such as the gauged $L_i-L_j$ ones, also contain more challenging channels with missing energy due to decays to neutrinos, they can still be searched for via fully visible channels.

Ema, Yohei [Florida U.]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Imaging local discharge cascades for correlated electrons in WS 2 /WSe 2 moiré superlattices

Transition metal dichalcogenide moiré heterostructures provide an ideal platform to explore the extended Hubbard model, where long-range Coulomb interactions play a critical role in determining strongly correlated electron states. This has led to experimental observations of Mott insulator states at half filling as well as a variety of extended Wigner crystal states at different fractional fillings. However, a microscopic understanding of these emerging quantum phases is still lacking. Here we describe a scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) technique for the local sensing and manipulation of correlated electrons in a gated WS 2 /WSe 2 moiré superlattice, which enables the experimental extraction of fundamental extended Hubbard model parameters. We demonstrate that the charge state of the local moiré sites can be imaged by their influence on the STM tunnelling current. In addition to imaging, we are also able to manipulate the charge state of correlated electrons. When we ramp the bias on the STM tip, there is a local discharge cascade of correlated electrons in the moiré superlattice, which allows us to estimate the nearest-neighbour Coulomb interaction. Two-dimensional mapping of the moiré electron charge states also enables us to determine the on-site energy fluctuations at different moiré sites. Furthermore, our technique should be broadly applicable to many semiconductor moiré systems, offering a powerful tool for the microscopic characterization and control of strongly correlated states in moiré superlattices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrologic connectivity and dynamics of solute transport in a mountain stream: Insights from a long-term tracer test and multiscale transport modeling informed by machine learning

The movement of solutes in a watershed is a complex process with multiple interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. Modeling the dynamics of solute transport along diverse hydrologic pathways within watersheds – from hillslopes to stream channels and in and out of the hyporheic zones – is challenging but critically important, as these processes integrate and contribute to the biogeochemical functioning of the river corridor up to the river network scale. Here we use results from a long-term network-scale tracer test at the H.J. Andrews experimental forest in western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA to inform a multiscale framework for transport in stream corridors. The framework uses a Lagrangian-based subgrid model to represent the effects of hyporheic exchange flow and advective transport at stream network scales. The spatially and temporally resolved stream discharge needed for the transport model is imputed across the river system by an entity-aware long short-term memory network. Modeled concentrations show good agreements with the observations and exhibit power scaling laws indicative of a very wide range of timescales over which hyporheic exchange flow occurs. Our results demonstrate a data-informed modeling framework that links dynamical processes occurring at small scales to a network context to help understand how changes at reach scale cascade into network-scale effects, providing a useful tool for sustainable river basin management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Membrane Cascade Design for Critical Mineral Recovery through Logic-based Superstructure Optimization

In this work, we extend the superstructure model proposed by Wamble et al. (2022) that considers feed input locations, recycling strategies, split fractions, stage numbers, and membrane area. We include the total number of stages as a decision variable, which might be particularly useful when there is cost as- sociated with adding additional stages. We propose a Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) superstructure model that integrates all the design variables of the system. We also investigate the scalability of the model by varying the number of stages and the number of finite elements per stage to determine the impact on recovery and solution time.

Tran, Norman↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation: Preprint

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

Bayesian structural time series↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wildfire-Power Grid Interactions: Feedback, Impacts, Monitoring, Modeling, and Mitigation Strategies

Wildfires are increasingly interacting with electric power systems through a two-way hazard chain: fires damage grid assets and trigger cascading outages, while grid faults can ignite new fires under hot, dry, and windy conditions. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge across five domains: (i) physical impacts of flames, heat, and smoke on lines, towers, insulators, and substations; (ii) power-infrastructure-initiated ignitions via conductor clash, high-impedance faults, and corona discharge; (iii) widespread blackouts and disproportionate societal impacts; (iv) multi-scale monitoring spanning laboratory tests, in-situ and grid-integrated sensors, and Earth observation; (v) coupled modeling that links fire behavior with grid operations; and (vi) technological and strategic mitigation pathways spanning prevention, response, and recovery. We integrate these domains into a novel 'feedback-aware' socio-technical framework. Through a longitudinal analysis (2005-2025) of global incidents, we identify that while vegetation contact remains the most frequent ignition source, aging infrastructure failure has emerged as a critical driver of catastrophic 'mega-fires'. We further identify persistent gaps, including limited interoperability of high-frequency grid and environmental data, scarce real-time data assimilation, and under-developed equity metrics for outage management. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to (1) deploy interoperable sensing architectures, (2) advance feedback-coupled fire-grid simulations, and (3) evaluate mitigation portfolios through techno-economic and fairness lenses. Recognizing wildfire-grid interactions as coupled socio-technical systems is essential for protecting infrastructure and communities and for ensuring reliable, sustainable electricity in a changing world.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solution-phase sample-averaged single-particle spectroscopy of quantum emitters with femtosecond resolution

Here, the development of many optical quantum technologies depends on the availability of solid-state single quantum emitters with near-perfect optical coherence. However, a standing issue that limits systematic improvement is the significant sample heterogeneity and lack of mechanistic understanding of microscopic energy flow at the single emitter level and ultrafast timescales. Here we develop solution-phase single-particle pump-probe spectroscopy with photon correlation detection that captures sample-averaged dynamics in single molecules and/or defect states with unprecedented clarity at femtosecond resolution. We apply this technique to single quantum emitters in two-dimensional hexagonal boron nitride, which suffers from significant heterogeneity and low quantum efficiency. From millisecond to nanosecond timescales, the translation diffusion, metastable-state-related bunching shoulders, rotational dynamics, and antibunching features are disentangled by their distinct photon-correlation timescales, which collectively quantify the normalized two-photon emission quantum yield. Leveraging its femtosecond resolution, spectral selectivity and ultralow noise (two orders of magnitude improvement over solid-state methods), we visualize electron-phonon coupling in the time domain at the single defect level, and discover the acceleration of polaronic formation driven by multi-electron excitation. Corroborated with results from a theoretical polaron model, we show how this translates to sample-averaged photon fidelity characterization of cascaded emission efficiency and optical decoherence time. Our work provides a framework for ultrafast spectroscopy in single emitters, molecules, or defects prone to photoluminescence intermittency and heterogeneity, opening new avenues of extreme-scale characterization and synthetic improvements for quantum information applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Big Data Analytic for Cascading Failure Analysis

With the challenges of increased grid dynamics and more variability of power generation from renewable energy sources, rapidly increasing complexity in the grid model, and abundant data from measurements and simulations, the requirements for computational analysis have also increased dramatically. Power system operators and engineers need to analyze more scenarios, extract meaningful information from a larger set of data, and respond more quickly when faced with these new challenges for large-scale applications, such as contingency analysis. This paper proposes a novel big data analysis approach for power system cascading analysis, prevention, and remediation. The developed techniques will be capable of cascading analysis, better assessment of the system’s vulnerability level, as well as proposing potential remediation. Case studies using IEEE 118-bus system and a 500-bus system, with a comparison against a commercial tool, validate the advantages of the developed big data approach: accurate prediction, and more importantly, faster and effective correction actions.The developed techniques could be further used for other power system applications.

big data, cascading analysis, corrective action, m↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spectrum of kinetic-Alfvén-wave turbulence: intermittency or tearing mediation?

We investigate the spectral properties of the electromagnetic fluctuations of sub-ion scale turbulence in weakly collisional, low-beta plasmas using a two-field isothermal gyrofluid model. The numerical results strongly support a description of the turbulence as a critically balanced Kolmogorov-like cascade of kinetic Alfvén wave fluctuations, as amended by previous studies to include intermittency effects. The measured universal index of the energy spectra from systems with different flux-unfreezing mechanisms excludes the role of tearing mediation in determining the spectra. The fluctuations remain isotropic in the plane perpendicular to the strong background magnetic fields as they cascade to smaller scales, which explains the absence of tearing mediation. The calculation of high-order, multipoint structure functions of magnetic fluctuations suggests that the intermittent structures have a quasi-2D, sheet-type morphology. In conclusion, these results are useful for explaining recent observations of the spectrum and structure of magnetic and density fluctuations in the solar wind at sub-proton scales, and are relevant for modelling the energy dissipation in a broad range of astrophysical systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience of Interdependent Water and Power Systems: A Literature Review and Conceptual Modeling Framework

As increasing pressures of population growth and climate change arise, water and power systems (WPS) are becoming increasingly interdependent. This interdependency has resulted in an increased potential for cascading failures, whereby the service interruption of one system can propagate to interdependent ones. This paper makes four contributions. First, we present an extensive literature review in the field of integrated water and power resilience, leveraging both institutional and technical literature research landscapes. We compare various modeling approaches used to model interdependent WPS and discuss the different metrics and definitions that are typically employed to quantify and define resilience. Relevant challenges and gaps related to modeling tools and metrics are also discussed, and appropriate recommendations are made. Second, the paper presents a visualization prototype for interdependent WPS to showcase water and power system interdependencies and reveal co-managed resilience strategies that can be used to improve resilience under different types of common threats. Third, we provide a conceptual decision support framework that simultaneously optimizes a portfolio of co-managed resilience strategies in the face of multiple, uncertain threats and addresses WPS interdependencies. Finally, we present future trends regarding digitalization, integrated planning, collaborative governance, and equity needs for building more resilient WPS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Functional All-Hazard Approach to Critical Infrastructure Dependency Analysis

The critical infrastructures protection landscape is a vast and varied pattern of independent, but interconnected infrastructure systems that are essential to the function of our modern society. The U.S. policy on critical infrastructure protection has been continually evolving since the “President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection” was published in 1997. In response to these policies, federal, state, and local governments, along with research institutions, have invested a substantial amount of time and effort into identifying and analyzing critical infrastructure, their functions, and dependencies/interdependencies to better understand their vulnerabilities. To date, the ability to assess vulnerabilities, resiliency, and priorities for protecting interdependent critical infrastructure systems from an all-hazards perspective remains a difficult problem. In this paper we introduce the All-Hazards Analysis (AHA) methodology, which provides an integrated functional basis across infrastructure systems, through the implementation of a common language and a scalable level of decomposition to effectively evaluate the resilience of interconnected infrastructure systems. AHA models infrastructure systems as directed multidimensional graphs, which enable the evaluation of cross-sector interdependencies prior to, during, and after disruptive events. Finally, and by design, AHA enables the cross linking of data taxonomies to enable more effective data sharing, such as the National Critical Functions (NCF) and Infrastructure Data Taxonomy (IDT).

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of a thermocapacitive cycle by aqueous supercapacitors for multifunctional heat pump and energy storage

Thermocapacitive cycles are promising thermal and energy storage cycles using supercapacitors, which can achieve thermal efficiencies over 50% of the Carnot limit. There is a lack of work investigating the use of thermocapacitive effects in practical heat pumps. Here, this paper explores the design of thermocapacitive cells with higher temperature changes to be better suited for heat pumping applications. To evaluate the cell designs on temperature changes, pouch type cells are prototyped and modeled, and tested using a micro-calorimeter. A peak adiabatic temperature span of a LiCl aqueous cell is 2.7 °C. By arranging the cells in a cascade manner, the projected adiabatic temperature span can reach up to 12 °C with a heating density of 15 kW m −3 and an energy storage density of 0.83 kWh m −3 . Models predict that this could be increased to 30 °C and 1.65 kWh m −3 through improvements to cell capacitance and thermopower. Incorporating the energy storage capabilities into heating and cooling devices can be beneficial to building thermal management as energy storage becomes increasingly important for energy system integration.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast estimation of reaction rates in spherical and non-spherical porous catalysts

Here we present a methodology for modeling multi-step reaction rates in porous catalyst particles for use in CFD-DEM and two fluid models. Single-step effectiveness factors based on a Thiele modulus, while useful, cannot accurately capture the cascading reaction systems common in high temperature vapor-phase chemical reactors like fluidized catalytic cracking units and catalytic biomass fast pyrolysis systems. Instead, multi-step effectiveness vectors derived from steady-state solutions to the governing reaction-diffusion equations are needed. Solutions for various catalyst shapes are presented, including spheres, cylinders, and prisms. Computational challenges inherent in repeated evaluation of reaction rates with diffusion limitations are discussed, and an efficient implementation based on pre-computed lookup tables is proposed and demonstrated on a simulation of a fluidized bed reactor. Open-source code is provided for the compilation of reaction rate tables for use in ODE, DEM, and two-fluid models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the Impacts of Coordination for Cascaded Hydropower Plants on the Mid-Columbia

The Mid-Columbia region in the U.S. Pacific Northwest includes seven large, cascaded hydropower plants with a combined nameplate capacity of nearly 14 GW. These plants have several different operators, and there is currently limited coordination among the operators. We develop a detailed model of the Mid-Columbia system that captures both river flow constraints and power system operations. We then place this detailed model within a production cost model of a 2030 system of the Western Interconnection to evaluate how coordination of the Mid-Columbia hydropower plants might impact operations throughout the interconnection. We find that coordination of the Mid-Columbia plants leads to more generation from the Mid-Columbia plants and increased revenues for the Mid-Columbia operators. This benefit is achieved primarily through better utilization of the storage reservoirs and decreased spill through the cascade. We also evaluate the impacts of look-ahead on production costs and find that longer look-ahead values result in lower system-wide production costs.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗