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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Electronic signatures of Lorentzian dynamics and charge fluctuations in lithiated graphite structures

Lithium graphite intercalation compounds (Li-GICs) are essential materials for modern day portable electronics and obtaining insights into their atomic structure and thermodynamics is of fundamental interest. Here we explore the electronic and atomic states of Li-GICs at varying degrees of Lithium loading (i.e., “staging”) by means of ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations and simulated X-ray adsorption spectroscopy (XAS). We analyze the atomic correlation functions and shows that the enhancements of the Li-ion entropy with increased staging result from Lorentzian lithium-ion dynamics and charge fluctuations, which activate low-energy phonon modes. The associated electronic signatures are modulations of the unoccupied π*/σ* orbital energy levels and unambiguous fingerprints in Carbon K-edge XAS spectra. Thus, we extend the canonical view of XAS, establishing that these “static” measurements in fact encode the signature of the thermodynamic response and relaxation dynamics of the system. This causal link between atomic structure, spectroscopy, thermodynamics, and information theory can be generally exploited to better understand stability in solid-state electrochemical systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1975

Exact solution of the Lifshitz equations governing the growth of fluctuations in cosmology

The exact solution of the Lifshitz equations governing the cosmological evolution of an initial fluctuation is presented. Lifshitz results valid for squares of the sound velocity equal to zero and 1/3 are extended in closed form to any equation of state where the pressure equals the total energy density times the square of the sound velocity. The solutions embody all the results found previously for special cases of the square of the sound velocity. It is found that the growth of any initial fluctuation is only an exponential function of time with an exponent of not more than 4/3 and is insufficient to produce galaxies unless the initial fluctuation is very large. A possible way to produce very large initial fluctuations by modifying the equation of state by including gravitational interactions is also examined. It is found that a phase transition can occur at baryonic density of 1 nucleon per cubic Planck length or equivalently, at a time of about 10 to the -43rd power sec. At those early times, the masses allowed by causality requirements are too small to be of interest in galaxy formation.

Adams, P. J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A knowledge-based approach to identification and adaptation in dynamical systems control

Artificial intelligence techniques are applied to the problems of model form and parameter identification of large-scale dynamic systems. The object-oriented knowledge representation is discussed in the context of causal modeling and qualitative reasoning. Structured sets of rules are used for implementing qualitative component simulations, for catching qualitative discrepancies and quantitative bound violations, and for making reconfiguration and control decisions that affect the physical system. These decisions are executed by backward-chaining through a knowledge base of control action tasks. This approach was implemented for two examples: a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer and a two-phase thermal testbed. Results of tests with both of these systems demonstrate that the software replicates some or most of the functionality of a human operator, thereby reducing the need for a human-in-the-loop in the lower levels of control of these complex systems.

Glass, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Vision science and technology for supervised intelligent space robots

The focus of recent work in robotic vision for application in intelligent space robots such as the Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Retriever is in visual function, that is, how information about the space world is derived and then conveyed to cognition. The goal of this work in visual function is first to understand how the relevant structure of the surrounding world is evidenced by regularities among the pixels of images, then to understand how these regularities are mapped on the premises that form the primitive elements of cognition, and then to apply these understandings with the elements of visual processing (algorithms) and visual mechanism (machine organization) to intelligent space robot simulations and test beds. Since visual perception is the process of recognizing regularities in images that are known on the basis of a model of the world to be reliable related to causal structure in the environment (because perception attaches meaning to the link between a conception of the environment and the objective environment), the work involves understanding generic, generally applicable models of world structure (not merely objects) and how that structure evidences itself in images.

Erickson, Jon D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Recommendation System by Leveraging the Semantics of Adverse Childhood Experiences: Proof-of-Concept Prototype Development

The study of adverse childhood experiences and their consequences has emerged over the past 20 years. Although the conclusions from these studies are available, the same is not true of the data. Accordingly, it is a complex problem to build a training set and develop machine-learning models from these studies. Classic machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques cannot provide a full scientific understanding of the inner workings of the underlying models. This raises credibility issues due to the lack of transparency and generalizability. Explainable artificial intelligence is an emerging approach for promoting credibility, accountability, and trust in mission-critical areas such as medicine by combining machine-learning approaches with explanatory techniques that explicitly show what the decision criteria are and why (or how) they have been established. Hence, thinking about how machine learning could benefit from knowledge graphs that combine “common sense” knowledge as well as semantic reasoning and causality models is a potential solution to this problem. In this study, we aimed to leverage explainable artificial intelligence, and propose a proof-of-concept prototype for a knowledge-driven evidence-based recommendation system to improve mental health surveillance. We used concepts from an ontology that we have developed to build and train a question-answering agent using the Google DialogFlow engine. In addition to the question-answering agent, the initial prototype includes knowledge graph generation and recommendation components that leverage third-party graph technology. To showcase the framework functionalities, we here present a prototype design and demonstrate the main features through four use case scenarios motivated by an initiative currently implemented at a children’s hospital in Memphis, Tennessee. Ongoing development of the prototype requires implementing an optimization algorithm of the recommendations, incorporating a privacy layer through a personal health library, and conducting a clinical trial to assess both usability and usefulness of the implementation. This semantic-driven explainable artificial intelligence prototype can enhance health care practitioners’ ability to provide explanations for the decisions they make.

adverse childhood experiences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the cumulative effects of nearshore habitat restoration actions for multiple populations of juvenile salmon in Whidbey Basin, Washington: foundation and approach for synthesis and evaluation

Ecosystem restoration is a common tool for re-establishing ecosystem processes, structures, and functions to improve biodiversity and services in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In the Salish Sea, salmon habitats have been fragmented, reduced in size, and diminished in quality, and the ecosystem processes that form and sustain these habitats have been degraded and disrupted as well. This loss is especially prevalent in estuaries, where up to 90% of former salmon habitat has been lost or compromised. Salmon species are integral to the identities and cultures of people in the Pacific Northwest, yet salmon abundances remain at historic lows, especially in urbanized areas. Recent investments in restoration are creating rearing habitat and repairing lost ecosystem function. However, restoration efforts in this region have largely proceeded at the site scale, with less attention to big-picture thinking regarding how restoration will effectively recover degraded or lost habitats for target species. As a result, no landscape-scale evaluation program exists, and the cumulative benefits of multiple interventions are unknown. We describe innovative methods for science synthesis related to the evaluation of cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration for Pacific salmon, using years of existing, but disparate data. Building from previous work on cumulative effects evaluation and incorporating a hierarchy of hypotheses approach, we propose using causal inference across numerous hypotheses in a framework to assess the cumulative benefits to Pacific salmon from multiple estuarine restoration projects. We present the framework as a method that can be used to address many complex questions and provide examples from the Salish Sea where the approach is being implemented. The framework draws on science synthesis from numerous fields and uses a hierarchy of hypotheses, causal analysis at multiple scales, and a new hierarchy of synthesis for assessing multiple lines of evidence documenting restoration effects on Pacific salmon. We propose causal inference to synthesize dissimilar data streams, in our case, to identify various manifestations of cumulative effects of restoration and benefits to salmon, and to further inform restoration and recovery planning. A unifying framework would allow for the detection of thresholds at which restoration provides measurable improvement and would greatly advance understanding of the effects of restoration on ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative genome analyses suggest a hemibiotrophic lifestyle and virulence differences for the beech bark disease fungal pathogens Neonectria faginata and Neonectria coccinea

Abstract Neonectria faginata and Neonectria coccinea are the causal agents of the insect-fungus disease complex known as beech bark disease (BBD), known to cause mortality in beech forest stands in North America and Europe. These fungal species have been the focus of extensive ecological and disease management studies, yet less progress has been made toward generating genomic resources for both micro- and macro-evolutionary studies. Here, we report a 42.1 and 42.7 mb highly contiguous genome assemblies of N. faginata and N. coccinea, respectively, obtained using Illumina technology. These species share similar gene number counts (12,941 and 12,991) and percentages of predicted genes with assigned functional categories (64 and 65%). Approximately 32% of the predicted proteomes of both species are homologous to proteins involved in pathogenicity, yet N. coccinea shows a higher number of predicted mitogen-activated protein kinase genes, virulence determinants possibly contributing to differences in disease severity between N. faginata and N. coccinea. A wide range of genes encoding for carbohydrate-active enzymes capable of degradation of complex plant polysaccharides and a small number of predicted secretory effector proteins, secondary metabolite biosynthesis clusters and cytochrome oxidase P450 genes were also found. This arsenal of enzymes and effectors correlates with, and reflects, the hemibiotrophic lifestyle of these two fungal pathogens. Phylogenomic analysis and timetree estimations indicated that the N. faginata and N. coccinea species divergence may have occurred at ∼4.1 million years ago. Differences were also observed in the annotated mitochondrial genomes as they were found to be 81.7 kb (N. faginata) and 43.2 kb (N. coccinea) in size. The mitochondrial DNA expansion observed in N. faginata is attributed to the invasion of introns into diverse intra- and intergenic locations. These first draft genomes of N. faginata and N. coccinea serve as valuable tools to increase our understanding of basic genetics, evolutionary mechanisms and molecular physiology of these two nectriaceous plant pathogenic species.

Salgado-Salazar, Catalina↗
NASA NTRS2007

Systems Modeling to Implement Integrated System Health Management Capability

ISHM capability includes: detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, and user interfaces that enable integrated awareness (past, present, and future) by users. This is achieved by focused management of data, information and knowledge (DIaK) that will likely be distributed across networks. Management of DIaK implies storage, sharing (timely availability), maintaining, evolving, and processing. Processing of DIaK encapsulates strategies, methodologies, algorithms, etc. focused on achieving high ISHM Functional Capability Level (FCL). High FCL means a high degree of success in detecting anomalies, diagnosing causes, predicting future anomalies, and enabling health integrated awareness by the user. A model that enables ISHM capability, and hence, DIaK management, is denominated the ISHM Model of the System (IMS). We describe aspects of the IMS that focus on processing of DIaK. Strategies, methodologies, and algorithms require proper context. We describe an approach to define and use contexts, implementation in an object-oriented software environment (G2), and validation using actual test data from a methane thruster test program at NASA SSC. Context is linked to existence of relationships among elements of a system. For example, the context to use a strategy to detect leak is to identify closed subsystems (e.g. bounded by closed valves and by tanks) that include pressure sensors, and check if the pressure is changing. We call these subsystems Pressurizable Subsystems. If pressure changes are detected, then all members of the closed subsystem become suspect of leakage. In this case, the context is defined by identifying a subsystem that is suitable for applying a strategy. Contexts are defined in many ways. Often, a context is defined by relationships of function (e.g. liquid flow, maintaining pressure, etc.), form (e.g. part of the same component, connected to other components, etc.), or space (e.g. physically close, touching the same common element, etc.). The context might be defined dynamically (if conditions for the context appear and disappear dynamically) or statically. Although this approach is akin to case-based reasoning, we are implementing it using a software environment that embodies tools to define and manage relationships (of any nature) among objects in a very intuitive manner. Context for higher level inferences (that use detected anomalies or events), primarily for diagnosis and prognosis, are related to causal relationships. This is useful to develop root-cause analysis trees showing an event linked to its possible causes and effects. The innovation pertaining to RCA trees encompasses use of previously defined subsystems as well as individual elements in the tree. This approach allows more powerful implementations of RCA capability in object-oriented environments. For example, if a pressurizable subsystem is leaking, its root-cause representation within an RCA tree will show that the cause is that all elements of that subsystem are suspect of leak. Such a tree would apply to all instances of leak-events detected and all elements in all pressurizable subsystems in the system. Example subsystems in our environment to build IMS include: Pressurizable Subsystem, Fluid-Fill Subsystem, Flow-Thru-Valve Subsystem, and Fluid Supply Subsystem. The software environment for IMS is designed to potentially allow definition of any relationship suitable to create a context to achieve ISHM capability.

Figueroa, Jorge F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Precision cosmology with primordial GW backgrounds in presence of astrophysical foregrounds

The era of Gravitational-Wave (GW) astronomy will grant the detection of the astrophysical GW background from unresolved mergers of binary black holes, and the prospect of probing the presence of primordial GW backgrounds. In particular, the low-frequency tail of the GW spectrum for causally-generated primordial signals (like a phase transition) offers an excellent opportunity to measure unambiguously cosmological parameters as the equation of state of the universe, or free-streaming particles at epochs well before recombination. We discuss whether this programme is jeopardised by the uncertainties on the astrophysical GW foregrounds that coexist with a primordial background. We detail the motivated assumptions under which the astrophysical foregrounds can be assumed to be known in shape, and only uncertain in their normalisation. In this case, the sensitivity to a primordial signal can be computed by a simple and numerically agile procedure, where the optimal filter function subtracts the components of the astrophysical foreground that are close in spectral shape to the signal. We show that the degradation of the sensitivity to the signal in presence of astrophysical foregrounds is limited to a factor of a few, and only around the frequencies where the signal is closer to the foregrounds. Our results highlight the importance of modelling the contributions of eccentric or intermediate-mass black hole binaries to the GW background, to consolidate the prospects to perform precision cosmology with primordial GW backgrounds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Design of an 'Autonomous Medical Response Agent' Interface Prototype for Long Duration Spaceflight

Major challenges for astronauts in future long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will be that crewmembers are not expected to be medical professionals, may be under high workload and stress, are facing physiological challenges caused by spaceflight, and will have limited, delayed voice communications with medical support from Earth. An autonomous medical response agent (AMRA) is envisioned to help astronauts address medical complaints, develop a differential diagnosis, and guide self-treatment until a healthy state is restored. AMRA develops a process of personalized diagnosis and treatment through a Bayesian predictive control system that recommends therapeutic control actions including diagnostic tests and treatments to crewmembers (Menon, 2020). The Human Computer Interaction (HCI) lab from NASA Ames Research Center’s Human Systems Integration Division (Code TH) has collaborated with Nahlia Inc in human-centered design augmentation research for AMRA. The project, titled Design of ‘Autonomous Medical Response Agent Interface Prototype for Long Duration Spaceflight, has been funded by the Translational Research Institute for Space Health (TRISH) and introduces an interactive user-interface prototype that guides astronauts through self-diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation while communicating with remote specialists in ground support (most notably a patient’s flight surgeon). Our project develops the interaction design for the crewmember using AMRA through user research, iterative design, and usability testing to evaluate the user interface and workflow designed. The interface design deliverable for this project, titled AMRA Aggregate Information Display (AMRA AID) is an integrated information display system for comprehensive autonomous medical guidance, diagnosis, and treatment of in-flight medical conditions experienced by crewmembers. AMRA AID demonstrates how we might ensure crew autonomy, increase the crew’s medical capabilities, and decrease cognitive burden within a front-end user interface. AMRA AID refrains from relying on input from ground or mission control for self-treatment of medical issues—though ground awareness and communication with ground is maintained as a means of ensuring trust between mission control and crew. AMRA AID demonstrates how the crew’s on-board medical system might integrate with information from vehicle monitoring and crew schedule, without assuming causal relationships. AMRA AID’s comprehensive view enables efficient information access for both crew and ground support, reducing cognitive burden in the event of an unplanned or emergency medical incident and enabling informed analytical decisions to be made based on both crew and vehicle health. Human-centered design augmentation advanced within the prototype included: enhanced workflow and treatment guidance for two medical scenarios for a non-specialist user base with various levels of medical training, interaction design which considered speech (conversational user interface) elements and on-screen interactions to be developed in future iterations of the project, communication design and functional requirements relevant to self-care versus caring for another astronaut, as well as user testing of the prototype with an international space medical community. This project arrives at critical findings regarding usability needs, communication requirements, and integrated information requirements for a future technology interface functioning to increase confidence between ground support and LDEM crewmembers.

TRISH↗
NASA NTRS2015

Forest Disturbance Across the Conterminous United States from 1985-2012: The Emerging Dominance of Forest Decline

Evidence of shifting dominance among major forest disturbance agent classes regionally to globally has been emerging in the literature. For example, climate-related stress and secondary stressors on forests (e.g., insect and disease, fire) have dramatically increased since the turn of the century globally, while harvest rates in the western US and elsewhere have declined. For shifts to be quantified, accurate historical forest disturbance estimates are required as a baseline for examining current trends. We report annual disturbance rates (with uncertainties) in the aggregate and by major change causal agent class for the conterminous US and five geographic subregions between 1985 and 2012. Results are based on human interpretations of Landsat time series from a probability sample of 7200 plots (30 m) distributed throughout the study area. Forest disturbance information was recorded with a Landsat time series visualization and data collection tool that incorporates ancillary high-resolution data. National rates of disturbance varied between 1.5% and 4.5% of forest area per year, with trends being strongly affected by shifting dominance among specific disturbance agent influences at the regional scale. Throughout the time series, national harvest disturbance rates varied between one and two percent, and were largely a function of harvest in the more heavily forested regions of the US (Mountain West, Northeast, and Southeast). During the first part of the time series, national disturbance rates largely reflected trends in harvest disturbance. Beginning in the mid-90s, forest decline-related disturbances associated with diminishing forest health (e.g., physiological stress leading to tree canopy cover loss, increases in tree mortality above background levels), especially in the Mountain West and Lowland West regions of the US, increased dramatically. Consequently, national disturbance rates greatly increased by 2000, and remained high for much of the decade. Decline-related disturbance rates reached as high as 8% per year in the western regions during the early-2000s. Although low compared to harvest and decline, fire disturbance rates also increased in the early- to mid-2000s. We segmented annual decline-related disturbance rates to distinguish between newly impacted areas and areas undergoing gradual but consistent decline over multiple years. We also translated Landsat reflectance change into tree canopy cover change information for greater relevance to ecosystem modelers and forest managers, who can derive better understanding of forest-climate interactions and better adapt management strategies to changing climate regimes. Similar studies could be carried out for other countries where there are sufficient Landsat data and historic temporal snapshots of high-resolution imagery.

Cohen, Warren B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence in the Expanding Solar Wind: Residual Energy and Intermittency

We conduct 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of decaying turbulence in the context of the solar wind. To account for the spherical expansion of the solar wind, we implement the expanding box model. The initial turbulence comprises uncorrelated counterpropagating Alfvén waves and exhibits an isotropic power spectrum. Our findings reveal the consistent generation of negative residual energy whenever nonlinear interactions are present, independent of the normalized cross helicity σc and compressibility. The spherical expansion facilitates this process. The resulting residual energy is primarily distributed in the perpendicular direction, with S 2 (b) − S 2 (u) ∝ l ⊥ or equivalently –E r ∝ k$^{–2}_{⟂}$. Here S 2 (b) and S 2 (u) are second-order structure functions of magnetic field and velocity respectively. In most runs, S 2 (b) develops a scaling relation S 2 (b) ∝ $l$$^{1/2}_{⊥}$ (E b ∝ k$^{–3/2}_{⟂}$). In contrast, S 2 (u) is consistently shallower than S 2 (b), which aligns with in situ observations of the solar wind. We observe that the higher-order statistics of the turbulence, which act as a proxy for intermittency, depend on the initial σc and are strongly affected by the expansion effect. Generally, the intermittency is more pronounced when the expansion effect is present. Finally, we find that in our simulations, although the negative residual energy and intermittency grow simultaneously as the turbulence evolves, the causal relation between them seems to be weak, possibly because they are generated on different scales.

Interplanetary turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hazard-Based Model of Activity Generation Using Vehicle Trajectory Data

Travel behavior modeling suffers from lack of longitudinal data due to the high cost of procurement and difficulty with ensuring data quality. In the recent years ubiquitous data intercepted from social media, cell detail record, GPS traces are increasingly being explored to analyze human mobility. However, these data lack key demographic information which limits their use for developing causal models of traveler behavior. The primary contribution of the paper lies in using vehicle trajectory data from Ann Arbor along with multiple other data sources for developing a hazard-based activity generation model. The different category of data used in the analysis include (i) vehicle trajectory data (VTD), (ii) American Census Survey (ACS), (iii) land use data, (iv) household travel survey (HTS) data, and (v) smart location data from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Home and work are identified as the two most frequently visited locations from the VTD and validated against land use categories of the region. Next a random utility-based model is developed using HTS data to identify other activity purposes as a function of the polynomials of distance from home, activity duration and departure time. The developed model is then applied to identify the non-home activity purposes in the VTD. Demographic and accessibility information are appended to the VTD from ACS and smart location databases respectively. The fmal database is then used to develop a hazard-based activity generation model. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

activity generation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulations of axion minihalos

The axion, motivated as a solution to the strong CP problem, is also a viable dark matter candidate. The axion field takes random values in causally disconnected regions if the symmetry breaking that establishes the particle occurs after inflation, leading to white-noise density fluctuations at low wave numbers and forming dense minihalos with sub-planetary masses subsequently. There have been two recent proposals that appear capable of testing this scenario, namely using pulsar timing arrays and studying cosmological microlensing caustics. Motivated by these proposals, we use N-body simulations to study the formation of substructures from white-noise density fluctuations. The density profiles of our relaxed axion minihalos can be described by the Navarro–Frenk–White profile, and the minihalos’ concentration number agrees well with a simple, physically-motivated model. We develop a semi-analytic formula to fit the mass function from our simulation, which agrees broadly at different redshifts and only differs at factor of two level from classic halo mass functions. This analytic mass function allows us to consider uncertainties in the post-inflation axion scenario, as well as extrapolate our high-redshift simulations results to the present. Our work estimates the present-day abundance of axion substructures, as is necessary for predicting their effect on cosmological microlensing caustics and pulsar timing. Our calculations suggest that if pulsar timing and microlensing probes can reach recent sensitivity forecasts, they may be sensitive to the post-inflation axion dark matter scenario, even when accounting for uncertainties pertaining to axion strings. For pulsar timing, the most significant caveat is whether axion minihalos are disrupted by stars, which our estimates show is mildly important at the most relevant masses. In conclusion, as our gravitational simulations are scale invariant, the results can be extended to models where the dark matter is comprised of other axion-like particles and even clusters of primordial black holes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physics-guided machine learning approaches to predict the ideal stability properties of fusion plasmas

One of the biggest challenges to achieve the goal of producing fusion energy in tokamak devices is the necessity of avoiding disruptions of the plasma current due to instabilities. The disruption event characterization and forecasting (DECAF) framework has been developed in this purpose, integrating physics models of many causal events that can lead to a disruption. Two different machine learning approaches are proposed to improve the ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) no-wall limit component of the kinetic stability model included in DECAF. First, a random forest regressor (RFR), was adopted to reproduce the DCON computed change in plasma potential energy without wall effects for a large database of equilibria from the national spherical torus experiment (NSTX). This tree-based method provides an analysis of the importance of each input feature, giving an insight into the underlying physics phenomena. Secondly, a fully-connected neural network has been trained on sets of calculations with the DCON code, to get an improved closed form equation of the no-wall β limit as a function of the relevant plasma parameters indicated by the RFR. The neural network has been guided by physics theory of ideal MHD in its extension outside the domain of the NSTX experimental data. The estimated value has been incorporated into the DECAF kinetic stability model and tested against a set of experimentally stable and unstable discharges. Moreover, the neural network results were used to simulate a real-time stability assessment using only quantities available in real-time. Finally, the portability of the model was investigated, showing encouraging results by testing the NSTX-trained algorithm on the mega ampere spherical tokamak (MAST).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Study of TCP Throughput Profiles and Dynamics Over Dedicated Connections

A throughput profile expressed as a function of the round-trip times of a data transport infrastructure is a critical indicator of its level of optimization, particularly, over dedicated connections. We study the throughput profiles of eleven TCP versions using measurements collected over dedicated hardware-emulated connections with distances spanning round the earth. Among them, BBR has overall higher temporal variations and lower throughput profiles compared to five loss-based TCP versions, and the comparison with other TCP versions is mixed. Using the Poincare map regions of throughput time traces, we show that the richer dynamics of BBR are correlated with its lower throughput profiles. We present basic analytical results that indicate that higher temporal variations of TCP methods lead to lower throughput profiles, thereby establishing the underlying causality. Under external losses, BBR achieves sustained high throughput compared to others as the loss rate is increased. Overall, our results provide insights into the relationship between time dynamics and throughput profiles of TCP versions, in particular, show that limited time traces can be indicative of global properties of throughput profiles.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying human failure events (HFEs) for external hazard probabilistic risk assessment

In recent years, several advancements in nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) have been driven by increased understanding of external hazards, plant response, and uncertainties. However, major sources of uncertainty associated with external hazard PRA remain. One important source is how risk-significant human actions that are carried out to enable plant response and recovery from natural hazards cause the close coupling of physical impacts on plants and overall plant risk during these hazard events. This makes human reliability and human-plant interactions important elements to consider in resolving PRA gaps in external hazards. One of the challenges in considering human response in external hazard probabilistic risk assessment (XHPRA) is that most existing human reliability analysis (HRA) models were not developed for assessing actions outside the control room (termed ex-control room actions) and hazard response. To support this new scope, HRA models will need to be developed or modified to support identification of human activities, causal factors, and uncertainties inherent in external hazard response, thereby providing insights regarding event timing and physical event conditions as they relate to human performance. In this study, there are two main objectives: (1) evaluate the applicability of an existing cognitive-based HRA method, Phoenix, to ex-control room actions, and (2) identify sources of uncertainty to be characterized or reduced in order to make this method suitable for XHPRA. The first step of such work is performed by assessing the suitability of existing HRA methods to support identifying human failure events (HFEs) for human response to flooding hazards. These HFEs are human actions or inactions that are involved in human responses to flooding hazards and could contribute to the loss of a critical function for the plant in the scenario being examined. Here, in this work, decomposition analyses using the cognitive-based Phoenix HRA model are used to identify HFEs. The Phoenix method was found to be suitable for analyzing ex-control room actions as well as identifying specific HFEs and underlying crew failure modes (CFMs). However, the method's suitability for use in ex-control room actions would benefit from expanding the available CFMs to accommodate a larger variety of physical and communication tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗