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At least 181 records · Page 10

Remote sensing of earth terrain

A systematic approach for the identification of terrain media such as vegetation canopy, forest, and snow covered fields is developed using the optimum polarimetric classifier. The covariance matrices for the various terrain covers are computed from the theoretical models of random medium by evaluating the full polarimetric scattering matrix elements. The optimal classification scheme makes use of a quadratic distance measure and is applied to classify a vegetation canopy consisting of both trees and grass. Experimentally measured data are used to validate the classification scheme. Theoretical probability of classification error using the full polarimetric matrix are compared with classification based on single features including the phase difference between the VV and HH polarization returns. It is shown that the full polarimetric results are optimal and provide better classification performance than single feature measurements. A systematic approach is presented for obtaining the optimal polarimetric matched filter which produces maximum contrast between two scattering classes, each represented by its respective covariance matrix.

Kong, J. A.↗

An IR Sounding-Based Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer in North Africa

Intense daytime surface heating over barren-to-sparsely vegetated surfaces results in dry convective mixing. In the absence of external forcing such as mountain waves, the dry convection can produce a deep, well-mixed, nearly isentropic boundary layer that becomes a well-mixed residual layer in the evening. These well-mixed layers (WML) retain their unique mid-tropospheric thermal and humidity structure for several days. To detect the SAL and characterize its properties, AIRS Level 2 Ver. 6 temperature and humidity products (2003-Present) are evaluated against rawinsondes and compared to model analysis at each of the 55 rawinsonde stations in northern Africa. To distinguish WML from Saharan air layers (WMLs of Saharan origin), the detection involved a two-step process: 1) algorithm-based detection of WMLs in dry environments (less than 7 g per kilogram mixing ratio) 2) identification of Sahara air layers (SAL) by applying Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back trajectories to determine the history of each WML. WML occurrence rates from AIRS closely resemble that from rawinsondes, yet rates from model analysis were up to 30% higher than observations in the Sahara due to model errors. Despite the overly frequent occurrence of WMLs from model analysis, HYSPLIT trajectory analysis showed that SAL occurrence rates (given a WML exists) from rawinsondes, AIRS, and model analysis were nearly identical. Although the number of WMLs varied among the data sources, the proportion of WMLs which were classified as SAL was nearly the same. The analysis of SAL bulk properties showed that AIRS and model analysis exhibited a slight warm and moist bias relative to rawinsondes in non-Saharan locations, but model analysis was notably warmer than rawinsondes and AIRS within the Sahara. The latter result is likely associated with the dearth of available data assimilated by model analysis in the Sahara. The variability of SAL thicknesses was reasonably captured by both AIRS and model analysis, but the former favor layers than are thinner than observations. Finally, further analysis of HYSPLIT trajectories revealed that fewer than 10% and 33% of all SAL back trajectories passed through regions with notable precipitation (>100 mm accumulated along the trajectory path) or Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD greater than 0.4, 75th percentile of AOD) on average, respectively. Trajectory analysis indicated that only 57% of Saharan and 24% of non-Saharan WMLs are definitively of Saharan origin (Saharan requirement: Two consecutive days in Sahara and 24 or more of those hours within 72 hours of detection). Non-SAL WMLs either originate from local-to-regionally generated residual layers or from mid-latitude air streams that do not linger over the Sahara for a sufficient time period. Initial analysis shows these non-SAL WMLs tend to be both notably cooler and slightly moister than their SAL counter parts. Continuing analysis will address what role Saharan and non-Saharan air masses characteristics may play on local and regional environmental conditions.

Nicholls, Stephen D.↗

A Preliminary Study on the Feasibility of Large Language Models for Detecting Micro-Behaviors Among Team Members in Space Missions

Large-language models (LLMs) have been recently used for spoken language understanding (SLU) to infer meaning and semantics from speech in tasks such as speaker intent and sentiment classification. Due to being trained on large amounts of data, and their ability to understand context and relationships between words, LLMs are competent, enabling them to generalize across tasks without requiring many task-specific training samples. This research examines the feasibility of few-shot learning in LLMs for detecting subtle, brief, and possibly unconscious interactions between team members, called ``micro-behaviors," and provides insights into the appropriate design of LLMs for this task. Our data came from 5 teams participating in a 45-day mission at the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA). More specifically we used data collected from team interaction battery (TIB) tasks teams performed five times in-mission which comprise an average 1.5 hours of conversation data per day. Micro-behaviors were coded according to an adapted version of Smith & Griffins (2022) theoretical framework in terms of Violation (i.e., presence of valenced behavior, uplifting/positive or discouraging/negative), Intensity (i.e., force of behavior in terms of how uplifting or discouraging is the behavior), and Intent (i.e., motive of the behavior in terms of whether it was deliberate or unintentional). We explore the ability of LLMs to detect the presence and intensity of micro-behaviors. We examine employing and fine-tuning readily available LLMs (i.e., RoBERTa, DistilBERT), as well as prompting state-of-the-art sequence classification models (i.e., Llama-2, Llama-3). In a total of 13,058 conversational turns (17.8% uplifting, 3.3% discouraging, 75.76% neutral, 3.14% nulls), we compute the macro F1-score of the 3-way micro-behavior classification task (i.e., classifying among uplifting, discouraging, and neutral; 33% chance). Results indicate that the RoBERTa model achieves a F1-score of 36.2% (uplift: 43.3% precision (P), 15.1% recall (R); discourage: 20% P, 0.5% R). These results significantly improve when we augment the data via paraphrasing in the RoBERTa model, reaching a 41.2% macro F1-score (uplift: 37.7% P, 86.3% R; discourage: 3.5% P, 1.8% R). Finally, the Llama-2 model with 3-shot prompting yields 38% macro F1-score (uplift: 28.7% P, 20% R; discourage: 7.2% P, 18% R), which is slightly better compared to the RoBERTa model without data augmentation, highlighting the effectiveness of sequence classification models in detecting minority classes with a small sample size. Findings indicate that LLMs hold potential to detect subtle behaviors in conversations, which could be valuable in assessing team behavior in space exploration missions. Future studies will evaluate the performance of different LLM prompting strategies or fine-tuning methods.

Ankush Raut↗

Predicting Ground Delay Program at an Airport Based on Meteorological Conditions

In this paper, we present two supervised-learning models, logistic regression and decision tree, to predict occurrence of ground delay program at an airport based on meteorological conditions and scheduled traffic demand. Such predictive capabilities can help the Federal Aviation Administration traffic managers and airline dispatchers to prepare mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of adverse weather. The models are applied to predict ground delay program occurrence at two major U.S. airports: Newark Liberty Intl. and San Francisco Intl. airports. The logistic regression model estimates the probability that a ground delay program will occur during a given hour. Decision tree, on the other hand, classifies an hour as a ground delay program or not based on the input variables. Results indicate that both models perform significantly better than a purely random prediction of ground delay program occurrence at the two airports. The logistic regression model performs better than the decision tree model. The degree to which various input variables impact the probability of ground delay program vary between the two airports. While the enroute convective weather is a dominant factor causing ground delay programs at New York airports, poor visibility and low cloud ceiling caused by marine stratus are major drivers of ground delay programs at San Francisco Intl. airport.

traffic flow management↗

Electrostatic emissions between electron gyroharmonics in the outer magnetosphere

Electrostatic emissions are often observed by spacecraft in the outer magnetosphere at frequencies between low electron gyroharmonics. The emissions include the well-known odd half-harmonic emissions as well as weaker emissions which occur near the electron plasma frequency. A scheme is constructed for classifying the emissions, and it is shown that a theoretical model which has been previously used to explain '3/2' emissions can be extended to the other classes of emissions. All of the emissions therefore appear to be generated by the same basic mechanism: an unstable electron plasma distribution consisting of cold electrons (below 100 eV) and hot loss cone electrons (about 1 keV). Each emission class is associated with a particular range of model parameters; the wide-band electric field data can thus be used to infer the density and temperature of the cold plasma component. The model predicts that gyroharmonic emissions near the plasma frequency require large cold plasma densities.

Hubbard, R. F.↗

Synoptic conditions producing cirrus during the FIRE cirrus IFO

Although direct observations of cirrus clouds by the FIRE research aircraft were usually confined to the area of Intensive Field Observation (IFO) surface network, these cirrus were generally part of a more extensive zone of upper level cloudiness. It is these large scale patterns of cirriform cloud and their relationship to the corresponding synoptic environment which are the prime focus. Three conceptual models are presented and each of the individual cases are classified into one of these categories. Although the cases manifest significant differences in intensity and small scale structure, it is believed that they are best viewed in this unified context. The descriptions given are mostly qualitative, however, quantitative descriptions of the synoptic control and its relationship to cloud structure for all the IFO cases are summarized. The synoptic situations in which extensive cirriform clouds were observed are classified into three basic types: warm front cases, cold front cases, and closed low aloft cases. A simplified summary of each type of situation is presented.

Starr, David OC.↗

A statistical analysis of the dependency of closure assumptions in cumulus parameterization on the horizontal resolution

Simulated data from the UCLA cumulus ensemble model are used to investigate the quasi-universal validity of closure assumptions used in existing cumulus parameterizations. A closure assumption is quasi-universally valid if it is sensitive neither to convective cloud regimes nor to horizontal resolutions of large-scale/mesoscale models. The dependency of three types of closure assumptions, as classified by Arakawa and Chen, on the horizontal resolution is addressed in this study. Type I is the constraint on the coupling of the time tendencies of large-scale temperature and water vapor mixing ratio. Type II is the constraint on the coupling of cumulus heating and cumulus drying. Type III is a direct constraint on the intensity of a cumulus ensemble. The macroscopic behavior of simulated cumulus convection is first compared with the observed behavior in view of Type I and Type II closure assumptions using 'quick-look' and canonical correlation analyses. It is found that they are statistically similar to each other. The three types of closure assumptions are further examined with simulated data averaged over selected subdomain sizes ranging from 64 to 512 km. It is found that the dependency of Type I and Type II closure assumptions on the horizontal resolution is very weak and that Type III closure assumption is somewhat dependent upon the horizontal resolution. The influences of convective and mesoscale processes on the closure assumptions are also addressed by comparing the structures of canonical components with the corresponding vertical profiles in the convective and stratiform regions of cumulus ensembles analyzed directly from simulated data. The implication of these results for cumulus parameterization is discussed.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

The WIRED Survey: Infrared Excesses in the SDSS DR7 White Dwarf Catalog - 2

With the launch of the Wide-field Infrar.ed Survey Explorer (WISE), a new era of detecting planetary debris and brown dwarfs (BDs) around white dwarfs (WDs) has begun with the WISE InfraRed Excesses around Degenerates (WIRED) Survey. The WIRED Survey is sensitive to substellar objects and dusty debris around WDs out to distances exceeding 100 pc, well beyond the completeness level of local WDs. In this paper, we present a cross-correlation of the preliminary Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 (DR7) WD catalog between the WISE, Two-Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS), UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS), and SDSS DR7 photometric catalogs. From -18,000 input targets, there are WISE detections comprising 344 "naked" WDs (detection of the WD photosphere only), 1020 candidate WD+M dwarf binaries, 42 candidate WD+BD systems, 52 candidate WD+dust disk systems, and 69 targets with indeterminate infrared excess. We classified all of the detected targets through spectral energy distribution model fitting of the merged optical, near-IR, and WISE photometry. Some of these detections could be the result of contaminating sources within the large (approx. 6") WISE point-spread function; we make a preliminary estimate for the rates of contamination for our WD+BD and WD+disk candidates and provide notes for each target of interest. Each candidate presented here should be confirmed with higher angular resolution infrared imaging or infrared spectroscopy. We also present an overview of the observational characteristics of the detected WDs in the WISE photometric bands, including the relative frequencies of candidate WD+M, WD+BD, and WD+disk systems.

Debes, John H.↗

Myanmar Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Monitor, Map, and Analyze Mangrove Forests in Myanmar for Enhanced Conservation

Mangroves supply many essential environmental amenities, such as preventing soil erosion, filtering water pollution, and protecting shorelines from harmful waves, floods, storms and winds. The Mangroves in Myanmar not only provide citizens with a food source, but they also offer firewood, charcoal, and construction materials. The depletion of mangroves is threatening more than the biodiversity however; Myanmar's fiscal livelihood is also in harm's way. Mangroves are valued at $100,000 to $277,000 per square kilometer and if managed in a sustainable fashion, can infuse constant income to the emerging Myanmarese economy. This study analyzed three coastline regions, the Ayeyarwady Delta, Rakhine and Tanintharyi, and mapped the spatial extent of mangrove forest during the dry season in 2000 and 2013. The classifications were derived from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operation Land Imager (OLI) imagery, as well as the Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model information. This data was atmospherically corrected, mosaicked, masked and classified in ENVI, followed by ArcGIS to perform raster calculations and create final products. Forest degradation collected from 2000 to 2013 was later used to forecast the density and health of Mangroves in the year 2030. These results were subsequently presented to project partners Dr. Peter Leimgruber and Ellen Aiken at the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute in Front Royal, VA. After the presentation of the project to the partners, these organizations formally passed on to the Myanmar Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Forestry for policy makers and forest managers to utilize in order to protect the Myanmar mangrove ecosystem while sustaining a healthy economy.

Weber, Samuel J.↗

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Weather impact↗

A Visual Tour of Carbon Export by Sinking Particles

To better quantify the ocean's biological carbon pump, we resolved the diversity of sinking particles that transport carbon into the ocean's interior, their contribution to carbon export, and their attenuation with depth. Sinking particles collected in sediment trap gel layers from four distinct ocean ecosystems were imaged, measured, and classified. The size and identity of particles was used to model their contribution to particulate organic carbon (POC) flux. Measured POC fluxes were reasonably predicted by particle images. Nine particle types were identified, and most of the compositional variability was driven by the relative contribution of aggregates, long cylindrical fecal pellets, and salp fecal pellets. While particle composition varied across locations and seasons, the entire range of compositions was measured at a single well-observed location in the subarctic North Pacific over one month, across 500 m of depth. The magnitude of POC flux was not consistently associated with a dominant particle class, but particle classes did influence flux attenuation. Long fecal pellets attenuated most rapidly with depth whereas certain other classes attenuated little or not at all with depth. Small particles (<100 m) consistently contributed ~5% to total POC flux in samples with higher magnitude fluxes. The relative importance of these small particle classes (spherical mini pellets, short oval fecal pellets, and dense detritus) increased in low flux environments (up to 46% of total POC flux). Imaging approaches that resolve large variations in particle composition across ocean basins, depth, and time will help to better parameterize biological carbon pump models

Carbon flux↗

Statistical Models of Landscape Pattern and the Effects of Coarse Resolution of Satellite Imagery on Estimation of Area

Analysis of classified satellite imagery was conducted to characterize errors in estimates of area based on coarse resolution satellite imagery which are due to distortions in sizes of small fragments, and to explore the feasibility of correcting for these errors using a statistical modeling approach. Sizes of bodies of open water on ERS-1 SAR and fire scars on Landsat MSS imagery were measured. Statistical analysis of the smaller scars and ponds as observed with this imagery of relatively fine resolution demonstrated that the distribution of the sizes could be modeled by either of two types of statistical distributions - a power distribution related to fractal processes or a simple exponential distribution. Comparison of the distribution of small bum scars as observed with Landsat to the distribution observed with AVHRR showed distortions due to the coarse spatial resolution of AVHRR caused a net overestimation of bum area. This bias was primarily caused by detection in 2 or 3 AVHRR pixels of bums whose true size was on the order of an AVHRR pixel.

Hlavka, Christine A.↗

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Statistics↗

Classification

A supervised learning task involves constructing a mapping from input data (normally described by several features) to the appropriate outputs. Within supervised learning, one type of task is a classification learning task, in which each output is one or more classes to which the input belongs. In supervised learning, a set of training examples---examples with known output values---is used by a learning algorithm to generate a model. This model is intended to approximate the mapping between the inputs and outputs. This model can be used to generate predicted outputs for inputs that have not been seen before. For example, we may have data consisting of observations of sunspots. In a classification learning task, our goal may be to learn to classify sunspots into one of several types. Each example may correspond to one candidate sunspot with various measurements or just an image. A learning algorithm would use the supplied examples to generate a model that approximates the mapping between each supplied set of measurements and the type of sunspot. This model can then be used to classify previously unseen sunspots based on the candidate's measurements. This chapter discusses methods to perform machine learning, with examples involving astronomy.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗

Classification of JERS-1 Image Mosaic of Central Africa Using A Supervised Multiscale Classifier of Texture Features

In this paper, a multiscale approach is introduced to classify the Japanese Research Satellite-1 (JERS-1) mosaic image over the Central African rainforest. A series of texture maps are generated from the 100 m mosaic image at various scales. Using a quadtree model and relating classes at each scale by a Markovian relationship, the multiscale images are classified from course to finer scale. The results are verified at various scales and the evolution of classification is monitored by calculating the error at each stage.

Saatchi, Sassan↗

A study of forecast growth with a barotropic model of the atmosphere

A barotropic model of the atmosphere was used to test various sources of forecast error. These errors are classified as truncation error, physical error, or initial error. It was shown that growth patterns due to each category differ significantly. Initial errors were shown not to grow in a barotropic model contrary to reports of other studies which indicate that they basically do grow. Also, random initial errors were shown to decrease due to the filtering effect of the model itself. Results seem to indicate that instabilities are required for error growth, be they barotropic or baroclinic, and that random errors are not representative of true initial conditions.

Halberstam, I. M.↗

Satellite Contributions to the Quantitative Characterization of Biomass Burning for Climate Modeling

Characterization of biomass burning from space has been the subject of an extensive body of literature published over the last few decades. Given the importance of this topic, we review how satellite observations contribute toward improving the representation of biomass burning quantitatively in climate and air-quality modeling and assessment. Satellite observations related to biomass burning may be classified into five broad categories: (i) active fire location and energy release, (ii) burned areas and burn severity, (iii) smoke plume physical disposition, (iv) aerosol distribution and particle properties, and (v) trace gas concentrations. Each of these categories involves multiple parameters used in characterizing specific aspects of the biomass-burning phenomenon. Some of the parameters are merely qualitative, whereas others are quantitative, although all are essential for improving the scientific understanding of the overall distribution (both spatial and temporal) and impacts of biomass burning. Some of the qualitative satellite datasets, such as fire locations, aerosol index, and gas estimates have fairly long-term records. They date back as far as the 1970s, following the launches of the DMSP, Landsat, NOAA, and Nimbus series of earth observation satellites. Although there were additional satellite launches in the 1980s and 1990s, space-based retrieval of quantitative biomass burning data products began in earnest following the launch of Terra in December 1999. Starting in 2000, fire radiative power, aerosol optical thickness and particle properties over land, smoke plume injection height and profile, and essential trace gas concentrations at improved resolutions became available. The 2000s also saw a large list of other new satellite launches, including Aqua, Aura, Envisat, Parasol, and CALIPSO, carrying a host of sophisticated instruments providing high quality measurements of parameters related to biomass burning and other phenomena. These improved data products have enabled significant progress in the study of biomass burning from space. However, appreciable uncertainty remains in many of the measurements that still needs to be addressed. Nevertheless, climate and other atmospheric models are

Ichoku, Charles↗

Cloud cover determination in polar regions from satellite imagery

The principal objectives of this project are: (1) to develop suitable validation data sets to evaluate the effectiveness of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) operational algorithm for cloud retrieval in polar regions and to validate model simulations of polar cloud cover; (2) to identify limitations of current procedures for varying atmospheric surface conditions, and to explore potential means to remedy them using textural classifiers; and (3) to compare synoptic cloud data from a control run experiment of the GISS climate model II with typical observed synoptic cloud patterns.

Barry, R. G.↗