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The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) Tracks 2-3 Peta-Gram Increase in Carbon Release to the Atmosphere During the 2014-2016 El Nino

The powerful El Niño event of 2015-2016 - the third most intense since the 1950s - has exerted a large impact on the Earth's natural climate system. The column-averaged CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) observations from satellites and ground based networks are analyzed together with in situ observations for the period of September 2014 to October 2016. From the differences between satellite (OCO-2) observations and simulations using an atmospheric chemistry-transport model, we estimate that, relative to the mean annual fluxes for 2014, the most recent El Niño has contributed to an excess CO2 emission from the Earth's surface (land+ocean) to the atmosphere in the range of 2.4+/-0.2 PgC (1 Pg = 10(exp 15) g) over the period of July 2015 to June 2016. The excess CO2 flux is resulted primarily from reduction in vegetation uptake due to drought, and to a lesser degree from increased biomass burning. It is about the half of the CO2 flux anomaly (range: 4.4-6.7 PgC) estimated for the 1997/1998 El Niño. The annual total sink is estimated to be 3.9+/-0.2 PgC for the assumed fossil fuel emission of 10.1 PgC. The major uncertainty in attribution arise from error in anthropogenic emission trends, satellite data and atmospheric transport.

OCO-2↗

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

farm crops↗

Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits. However, 2 C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2 C scenario to 1.5 C or could achieve 2 C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 +/- 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with approx.40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and greater than 200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Atmospheric science↗

Future Climate Change Significantly Alters Interannual Wheat Yield Variability Over Half of Harvested Areas

Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.

Climate change↗

Soil Carbon Losses Reduce Soil Moisture in Global Climate Model Simulations

Most agricultural soils have experienced substantial soil organic carbon losses in time. These losses motivate recent calls to restore organic carbon in agricultural lands to improve biogeochemical cycling and for climate change mitigation. Declines in organic carbon also reduce soil infiltration and water holding capacity, which may have important effects on regional hydrology and climate. To explore the regional hydroclimate impacts of soil organic carbon changes, we conduct new global climate model experiments with NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE that include spatially explicit soil organic carbon concentrations associated with different human land management scenarios. Compared to a “no land use” case, a year 2010 soil degradation scenario, in which organic carbon content (OCC; weight %) is reduced by a factor of ∼0.12 on average across agricultural soils, resulted in soil moisture losses between 0.5 and 1 temporal standard deviations over eastern Asia, northern Europe, and the eastern United States. In a more extreme idealized scenario where OCC is reduced uniformly by 0.66 across agricultural soils, soil moisture losses exceed one standard deviation in both hemispheres. Within the model, these soil moisture declines occur primarily due to reductions in porosity (and to a lesser extent infiltration) that overall soil water holding capacity. These results demonstrate that changes in soil organic carbon can have meaningful, large-scale effects on regional hydroclimate and should be considered in climate model evaluations and developments. Further, this also suggests that soil restoration efforts targeting the carbon cycle are likely to have additional benefits for improving drought resilience.

Atmosphere-land interaction↗

Marsh Archive Reveals Human Population History and Future Implications for Estuarine Health in Long Island Sound

Coastal marshes are efficient ecosystems providing a multitude of benefits for invertebrates, birds, fish and humans alike. Yet despite these benefits, wetlands are threatened by anthropogenic inputs such as human wastewater which contain high levels of nitrogen (N). Increased nitrogen loads cause eutrophication and hypoxia in estuaries leading to further degradation of these valuable ecosystems that are already stressed by sea level rise and climate change. Policies to protect wetlands via wastewater treatments are reactive rather than proactive and a growing body of research shows that characteristics associated with population health and economic activity can be identified in wastewater. Analysis of a 2-m salt marsh sediment core reveals δN15 signatures indicative of human population rise and connects human impact to ecosystem health. Using key X-ray fluorescence (XRF), pollen, sediment and nitrogen signatures along the core, a robust chronology was produced dating back to 1700. This result was coupled with population data to observe the relationship between δN15 levels and population over three centuries. There is a statistically significant positive correlation between δN15 and population. Other external factors such as federal government policies (regulating clean water) show a clear reduction in this association but the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer masks the strength of this relationship. Further research to refine the relationship between population and δN15 could be beneficial in predicting nitrogen loads as human population grows, which in turn would create a proactive system to protect our coastal ecosystems.

Nitrogen↗

The Studies on Aerosol Transport, Its Deposition, and Its Impact on Climate - the Study on the Surface Material Circulation can Connect from the Past to the Future

Recently the issue on glacier retreats comes up and many factors should be relevant to the issue. The absorbing aerosols such as dust and black carbon (BC) are considered to be one of the factors. After they deposited onto the snow surface, it will reduce snow albedo (called snow darkening effect) and probably contribute to further melting of glacier. The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) has developed at NASAlGSFC. However, the original snowpack model used in the land surface model in the GEOS-5 did not consider the snow darkening effect. Here we developed the new snow albedo scheme which can consider the snow darkening effect. In addition, another scheme on calculating mass concentrations on the absorbing aerosols in snowpack was also developed, in which the direct aerosol depositions from the chemical transport model in the GEOS-5 were used. The scheme has been validated with the observed data obtained at backyard of the Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, by Dr. Teruo Aoki (Meteorological Research Institute) et al. including me. The observed data was obtained when I was Ph.D. candidate. The original GEOS-5 during 2007-2009 over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau region showed more reductions of snow than that of the new GEOS-5 because the original one used lower albedo settings. On snow cover fraction, the new GEOS-5 simulated more realistic snow-covered area comparing to the MODIS snow cover fraction. The reductions on snow albedo, snow cover fraction, and snow water equivalent were seen with statistically significance if we consider the snow darkening effect comparing to the results without the snow darkening effect. In the real world, debris-cover, inside refreezing process, surface flow of lacier, etc. affect glacier mass balance and the simu.latedresults immediately do not affect whole glacier retreating. However, our results indicate that some surface melting over non debris-covered parts of the glacier would be explained by the snow darkening effect. Further discussion and observations are necessary to assess the glacier issue.

Yasunari, Teppei↗

Bolide impacts and the oxidation state of carbon in the Earth's early atmosphere

A one-dimensional photochemical model was used to examine the effect of bolide impacts on the oxidation state of Earth's primitive atmosphere. The impact rate should have been high prior to 3.8 Ga before present, based on evidence derived from the Moon. Impacts of comets or carbonaceous asteroids should have enhanced the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by bringing in CO ice and/or organic carbon that can be oxidized to CO in the impact plume. Ordinary chondritic impactors would contain elemental iron that could have reacted with ambient CO2 to give CO. Nitric oxide (NO) should also have been produced by reaction between ambient CO2 and N2 in the hot impact plumes. High NO concentrations increase the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by increasing the rainout rate of oxidized gases. According to the model, atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios of unity or greater are possible during the first several hundred million years of Earth's history, provided that dissolved CO was not rapidly oxidized to bicarbonate in the ocean. Specifically, high atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios are possible if either: (1) the climate was cool (like today's climate), so that hydration of dissolved CO to formate was slow, or (2) the formate formed from CO was efficiently converted into volatile, reduced carbon compounds, such as methane. A high atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio may have helped to facilitate prebiotic synthesis by enhancing the production rates of hydrogen cyanide and formaldehyde. Formaldehyde may have been produced even more efficiently by photochemical reduction of bicarbonate and formate in Fe(++)-rich surface waters.

Non-NASA Center↗

Aerosol Source Attributions and Source-Receptor Relationships Across the Northern Hemisphere

Emissions and long-range transport of air pollution pose major concerns on air quality and climate change. To better assess the impact of intercontinental transport of air pollution on regional and global air quality, ecosystems, and near-term climate change, the UN Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) is organizing a phase II activity (HTAP2) that includes global and regional model experiments and data analysis, focusing on ozone and aerosols. This study presents the initial results of HTAP2 global aerosol modeling experiments. We will (a) evaluate the model results with surface and aircraft measurements, (b) examine the relative contributions of regional emission and extra-regional source on surface PM concentrations and column aerosol optical depth (AOD) over several NH pollution and dust source regions and the Arctic, and (c) quantify the source-receptor relationships in the pollution regions that reflect the sensitivity of regional aerosol amount to the regional and extra-regional emission reductions.

HTAP2↗

Quantifying Post-fire Vegetation Recovery on the Colorado Front Range

Forest composition and structure in the Colorado Front Range has been altered by changing wildfire regimes, particularly in response to increased fire severity. Subsequent reductions in post-fire tree regeneration can result in chronic impacts to ecological function and water quality. This project partnered with the U.S. Forest Service to estimate tree canopy recovery from 15 to 21 years after four Colorado Front Range fires that burned between 1996 and 2002— the Bobcat, Buffalo Creek, Hayman, and High Meadows fires—using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). First, we evaluated relationships between recovery metrics derived from spectral vegetation indices (i.e. post-fire vegetation, normalized burn ratio, percent unrecovered vegetation) and field-collected counts of post-fire tree seedling regeneration. Then, we used high-resolution imagery paired with Landsat timeseries spectral and geomorphometric data to map forest canopy cover 15-21 years post-fire. Finally, we assessed ecological drivers of recovery including topography, climate, soils, and fire severity using Random Forest. While we found that basic vegetation index metrics failed to distinguish field-measured tree regeneration, our data showed that both aspect and burn severity were important drivers of vegetation recovery. North-facing aspects tended to have higher pre-fire Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and thus higher burn severities. However, areas that burned at high severity experienced slower vegetation recovery, regardless of aspect suggesting that high severity fire can mute favorable site conditions on north-facing aspects (i.e. moister, more developed soils). While this work propels our understanding of variables that influence vegetative recovery, vegetation type, forest conversion, and watershed function, more work should focus on what vegetation indices identifying areas of recovery indicate across different forest types and burn severities.

NASA DEVELOP↗

Irrigated Agriculture Significantly Modifies Seasonal Boundary Layer Atmosphere and Lower Tropospheric Convective Environment

Modification of grasslands into irrigated and nonirrigated agriculture in the Great Plains resulted in significant impacts on weather and climate. However, there has been lack of observational data–based studies solely focused on impacts of irrigation on the PBL and convective conditions. The Great Plains Irrigation Experiment (GRAINEX), conducted during the 2018 growing season, collected data over irrigated and nonirrigated land uses over Nebraska to understand these impacts. Specifically, the objective was to determine whether the impacts of irrigation are sustained throughout the growing season. The data analyzed include latent and sensible heat flux, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, equivalent temperature (moist enthalpy), PBL height, lifting condensation level (LCL), level of free convection (LFC), and PBL mixing ratio. Results show increased partitioning of energy into latent heat relative to sensible heat over irrigated areas while average maximum air temperature was decreased and dewpoint temperature was increased from the early to peak growing season. Radiosonde data suggest reduced planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights at all launch sites from the early to peak growing season. However, reduction of PBL height was much greater over irrigated areas than over nonirrigated croplands. Relative to the early growing period, LCL and LFC heights were also lower during the peak growing period over irrigated areas. Results note, for the first time, that the impacts of irrigation on PBL evolution and convective environment can be sustained throughout the growing season and regardless of background atmospheric conditions. These are important findings and applicable to other irrigated areas in the world.

Emilee Lachenmeier↗

Tropical Rainfall Variability on Interannual-to-Interdecadal/Longer-Time Scales Derived from the GPCP Monthly Product

Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 26-year (1979-2004) GPCP monthly dataset (Adler et al., 2003). Our emphasis is to discriminate among variations due to ENSO, volcanic events, and possible long-term climate changes in the tropics. Although the global linear change of precipitation in the data set is near zero during the time period, an increase in tropical rainfall is noted, with a weaker decrease over northern hemisphere middle latitudes. Focusing on the tropics (25degS-25degN), the data set indicates an upward trend (0.06 mm/day/decade) and a downward trend (-0.02 mm/day/decade) over tropical ocean and land, respectively. This corresponds to an about 4.9% increase (ocean) and 1.6% decrease (land) during the entire 26-year time period. Techniques are applied to isolate and quantify variations due to ENSO and two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon, March 1982; Pinatubo, June 1991) in order to examine longer time-scale changes. The ENSO events generally do not impact the tropical total rainfall, but, of course, induce significant anomalies with opposite signs over tropical land and ocean. The impact of the two volcanic eruptions is estimated to be about a 5% reduction in tropical rainfall over both land and ocean. A modified data set (with ENSO and volcano effects removed) retains the same approximate linear change slopes, but with reduced variance, thereby increasing the confidence levels associated with the long-term rainfall changes in the tropics 2

Gu, Guojun↗

Mass killings and detection of impacts

Highly energetic bolide impacts occur and their flux is known. For larger bodies the energy release is greater than for any other short-term global phenomenon. Such impacts produce or release a large variety of shock induced changes including major atmospheric, sedimentologic, seismic and volcanic events. These events must necessarily leave a variety of records in the stratigraphic column, including mass killings resulting in major changes in population density and reduction or extinction of many taxonomic groups, followed by characteristic patterns of faunal and flora replacement. Of these effects, mass killings, marked by large-scale loss of biomass, are the most easily detected evidence in the field but must be manifest on a near-global scale. Such mass killings that appear to be approximately synchronous and involve disappearance of biomass at a bedding plane in many sedimentologically independent sections globally suggest a common cause and probable synchroneity. Mass killings identify an horizon which may be examined for evidence of cause. Geochemical markers may be ephemeral and absence may not be significant. There appears to be no reason why ongoing phenomena such as climate and sea-level changes are primary causes of anomolous episodic events.

Mclaren, Digby J.↗

Mapping Forest Carbon Stocks to Understand Carbon Implications of Treatment on Wildfire for the Calwood Fire, Boulder County Colorado

Recent, record-breaking wildfire activity in the western U.S. illustrates the need for fire mitigation, such as forest fuels reduction treatments. Forests serve as crucial carbon sinks that combat the increasing effects of climate change, but fuels reduction treatments may remove carbon from forested systems. As a result, forest managers need to find a balance between fire mitigation and carbon preservation. This project partnered with Boulder County Parks and Open Space (BCPOS) and the University of Colorado, Denver to investigate the 2020 Cal-Wood fire in Boulder County, Colorado. Using remote sensing data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Imagery, and LiDAR, we mapped post-fire forest carbon pools and compared these values with values derived from field measurements. The analysis suggested that fuels reduction treatments did not reduce carbon loss in the presence of wildfire enough to clearly distinguish post-fire carbon between treated and untreated areas. However, the final carbon maps provide BCPOS and researchers with an opportunity to explore carbon estimation models based on remote sensing data as well as a framework to evaluate fuels reduction treatment effectiveness and impact on forest carbon stocks for future wildfire events.

Sarah Hettema↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-30397-DND

Arctic low clouds strongly affect the Arctic surface energy budget, and through this impact influence rest of the Arctic climate system: namely surface and atmospheric temperature, sea ice extent and thickness, and the atmospheric circulation. Arctic clouds are in turn influenced by the Arctic climate system creating the potential for cloud-climate feedbacks. We quantify the influence of atmospheric state on the surface cloud radiative effect (CRE) and the covariability between surface CRE and sea ice concentration (SIC) using instantaneous, active remote sensing satellite footprint data from the NASA A-Train. First, the results indicate significant differences in the surface CRE when stratified by atmospheric state. Second, a statistically insignificant covariability is found between CRE and SIC for most atmospheric regimes. Third, we find a statistically significant increase in the surface longwave CRE at with decreased SIC in fall. Specifically, a +3-5 W m 2 larger longwave CRE is found over footprints with 0% versus 100% SIC. Because systematic changes of 1 W m 2 are sufficient to explain the observed reductions in Arctic sea ice, our results (1) indicate a potentially significant amplifying sea ice-cloud feedback that could delay fall freeze-up influencing sea ice variability under certain atmospheric conditions and (2) suggest that a small change in the frequency of atmosphere states may yield a larger Arctic cloud feedback than any cloud response to sea ice.

Patrick Taylor↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-30631-DND

Arctic low clouds strongly affect the Arctic surface energy budget, and through this impact influence rest of the Arctic climate system: namely surface and atmospheric temperature, sea ice extent and thickness, and the atmospheric circulation. Arctic clouds are in turn influenced by the Arctic climate system creating the potential for cloud-climate feedbacks. We quantify the influence of atmospheric state on the surface cloud radiative effect (CRE) and the covariability between surface CRE and sea ice concentration (SIC) using instantaneous, active remote sensing satellite footprint data from the NASA A-Train. First, the results indicate significant differences in the surface CRE when stratified by atmospheric state. Second, a statistically insignificant covariability is found between CRE and SIC for most atmospheric regimes. Third, we find a statistically significant increase in the surface longwave CRE at with decreased SIC in fall. Specifically, a +3-5 W m^-2 larger longwave CRE is found over footprints with 0% versus 100% SIC. Because systematic changes of 1 W m^-2 are sufficient to explain the observed reductions in Arctic sea ice, our results (1) indicate a potentially significant amplifying sea ice-cloud feedback that could delay fall freeze-up influencing sea ice variability under certain atmospheric conditions and (2) suggest that a small change in the frequency of atmosphere states may yield a larger Arctic cloud feedback than any cloud response to sea ice.

Patrick Taylor↗

Relative Impacts of Mitigation, Temperature, and Precipitation on 21st-Century Megadrought Risk in the American Southwest

Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

risk↗

Platte River Basin Water Resources II: Predicting Land Cover Change in the Platte River Basin to Select Wetland Protection Sites Vulnerable to Urban Encroachment

The Platte River Basin (PRB) represents a critical dynamic ecosystem where wetlands play a pivotal role as essential habitats for local and migratory birds, as well as various flora and fauna. It also provides many crucial ecosystem services that directly and indirectly benefit human welfare. However, it is threatened by anthropogenic activity, climate change, and urbanization. Our team partnered with Audubon Great Plains, the regional office of a national non-profit organization (NGO), to analyze the future potential development of the region and its potential impact on the wetlands. We utilized remotely sensed data, such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Suomi National Polar Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), as well as NASA Socioeconomic Data and Application Center (SEDAC) data, to simulate urban growth potential up to 2050 using the open-source model FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model. Our results for two proposed scenarios (all wetlands are protected, and no wetlands are protected) revealed that at least 56 counties out of 81 in the PRB would experience growth by the year 2050. The results for the first scenario show that there will be no loss of wetlands in the future. However, the results for the second scenario indicate a basin-wide reduction of 43.22 square kilometers (0.58%) in wetland areas, leading to a significant loss of bird habitat, critical for conservation. The results will help Audubon Great Plains' Urban Woods and Prairies Initiative to lead awareness workshops for communities about wetland protection and to form impactful conservation strategies.

FUTURES↗