SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “climate model testing”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Supercharge NY

The Energy Program for Innovation Clusters (EPIC) Supercharge NY enabled The Clean Fight to execute an inaugural accelerator program focused on enabling world-class, growth-stage energy storage companies to successfully scale deployments and establish domestic manufacturing pathways in New York State. The Clean Fight has developed and tested a successful accelerator model designed to reduce the barriers growth-stage climate tech companies face by collapsing the sales cycle to scaling solutions at speed. The Clean Fight’s Supercharge NY project allowed for the exploration into the understanding of New York-focused energy storage opportunities, challenges, and methods for enabling successful projects. The Clean Fight’s Supercharge NY project enabled high-touch matchmaking with industry leading customer and capital partners, technical assistance to facilitate scaling supply chain and manufacturing capacity, and access to non-dilutive funding for first-of-a-kind or demonstration projects in New York State. The results of the program provide a public benefit by accelerating deployments of energy storage to provide value-added energy services and sustainability benefits to communities while boosting economic opportunity and job creation for all.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1990

Parameterization of eddy sensible heat transports in a zonally averaged dynamic model of the atmosphere

A Charney-Branscome based parameterization has been tested as a way of representing the eddy sensible heat transports missing in a zonally averaged dynamic model (ZADM) of the atmosphere. The ZADM used is a zonally averaged version of a general circulation model (GCM). The parameterized transports in the ZADM are gaged against the corresponding fluxes explicitly simulated in the GCM, using the same zonally averaged boundary conditions in both models. The Charney-Branscome approach neglects stationary eddies and transient barotropic disturbances and relies on a set of simplifying assumptions, including the linear appoximation, to describe growing transient baroclinic eddies. Nevertheless, fairly satisfactory results are obtained when the parameterization is performed interactively with the model. Compared with noninteractive tests, a very efficient restoring feedback effect between the modeled zonal-mean climate and the parameterized meridional eddy transport is identified.

Genthon, Christophe↗

NASA NTRS1997

Mapping Surface Cover Parameters Using Aggregation Rules and Remotely Sensed Cover Classes

A coupled model, which combines the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) with an advanced atmospheric boundary-layer model, was used to validate hypothetical aggregation rules for BATS-specific surface cover parameters. The model was initialized and tested with observations from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observational Study and used to simulate surface fluxes for rain forest and pasture mixes at a site near Manaus in Brazil. The aggregation rules are shown to estimate parameters which give area-average surface fluxes similar to those calculated with explicit representation of forest and pasture patches for a range of meteorological and surface conditions relevant to this site, but the agreement deteriorates somewhat when there are large patch-to-patch differences in soil moisture. The aggregation rules, validated as above, were then applied to remotely sensed 1 km land cover data set to obtain grid-average values of BATS vegetation parameters for 2.8 deg x 2.8 deg and 1 deg x 1 deg grids within the conterminous United States. There are significant differences in key vegetation parameters (aerodynamic roughness length, albedo, leaf area index, and stomatal resistance) when aggregate parameters are compared to parameters for the single, dominant cover within the grid. However, the surface energy fluxes calculated by stand-alone BATS with the 2-year forcing, data from the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) CDROM were reasonably similar using aggregate-vegetation parameters and dominant-cover parameters, but there were some significant differences, particularly in the western USA.

Arain, Altaf M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Lagrangian Assimilation of Satellite Data for Climate Studies in the Arctic

Under this grant we have developed and tested a new Lagrangian model of sea ice. A Lagrangian model keeps track of material parcels as they drift in the model domain. Besides providing a natural framework for the assimilation of Lagrangian data, it has other advantages: 1) a model that follows material elements is well suited for a medium such as sea ice in which an element retains its identity for a long period of time; 2) model cells can be added or dropped as needed, allowing the spatial resolution to be increased in areas of high variability or dense observations; 3) ice from particular regions, such as the marginal seas, can be marked and traced for a long time; and 4) slip lines in the ice motion are accommodated more naturally because there is no internal grid. Our work makes use of these strengths of the Lagrangian formulation.

Lindsay, Ronald W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Ultraspectral Infrared Measurements from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft

Aqua measures the Earth's water cycle, energy fluxes, vegetation and temperatures. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB) were launched on the EOS Aqua spacecraft in May 2002. AIRS has had good radiometric and spectral sensitivity, stability, and accuracy and is suitable for climate studies. Temperature products compare well with radiosondes and models over the limited test range (|LAT| less than 40 degrees). Early trace gas products demonstrate the potential of AIRS. NASA is developing the next generation of hyperspectral IR imagers. JPL is ready to participate with US government agencies and US industry to transfer AIRS technology and science experience.

infrared↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

complex simulation↗

DOE OSTI2025

IBPSA Project 2 BOPTEST: An update on the test cases available in the framework for testing advanced control strategies in buildings

Project 2 develops software infrastructure, test cases, and extensions for the Building Optimization Testing Framework (BOPTEST) to address the expanding needs of building and urban energy system controls through open international collaboration. This paper provides an overview of the new test cases available as of BOPTEST version 0.7.1. Each test case is developed using open-source Modelica libraries and Spawn of EnergyPlus, enabling the creation of high-fidelity building models that incorporate envelope dynamics, Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, and explicit control representations. Currently, eight test cases are available, with five additional cases under development. These test cases cover a wide range of climates, building types, and HVAC systems. This paper compiles and summarizes test case descriptions, cites original manuscripts that developed them for a more detailed description, and reports baseline control performance metrics. Furthermore, two example applications are presented: one illustrating different levels of control, from supervisory to low-level, and another demonstrating how Model Predictive Control (MPC) solutions must be adapted from continuous to integer to control some building actuators.

Zanetti, Ettore↗

DOE OSTI2022

Long-term impact of light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation on photovoltaic arrays

Low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been identified as critical for widespread adoption of photovoltaics (PV) without subsidies. Maintaining decades-long high-energy production is often an under-recognized opportunity in meeting cost goals because component lifetimes are not fully quantified at the time of manufacture. Whereas certain standardized tests minimize risk of early failure, there is little guidance to quantitatively predict degradation (or lack thereof) over decades, based on accelerated tests. In this article, we move toward bridging the understanding between indoor accelerated tests and outdoor performance data, with the goal of predicting energy yield with enough accuracy to inform financial decisions. Light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LETID) in p-type Si modules is analyzed in terms of impact on long-term module performance and thus LCOE. A method to predict the progression of LETID, using fixed kinetic constants and a numerical solution to the basic reaction rate equations, is detailed. Predictions are compared against both published data and that new to this study. These data include both indoor accelerated tests and fielded modules. We use the results in financial models to derive LCOE of modules in different climates with varying amounts of LETID, including uncertainty. Cost models based on the predictions indicate that LETID has a significant and climate-dependent impact on LCOE. Finally, we show that - even given the uncertainties identified in the study - these financial calculations can provide useful guidance to quantify risk based on accelerated test results. The analysis serves as an example of developing a predictive approach to PV reliability using physics of failure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Whole-Ecosystem Warming Enables Novel Estimation of Snow Cover and Depth Sensitivities to Temperature, and Quantification of the Snow-Albedo Feedback Effect

Climate change is reducing the amount, duration, and extent of snow across high-latitude ecosystems. But, in landscapes where persistent winter snow cover develops, experimental platforms to specifically investigate interactions between warming and changes in snowpack, and impacts on ecosystem processes, have been lacking. We leveraged a whole-ecosystem warming experiment in a boreal peatland forest to quantify how snow duration, depth, and fractional cover vary with warming of up to +9°C. We found that every snow-related quantity we examined declined precipitously as the amount of warming increased. The importance of deep, continuous snow cover for moderating shallow soil temperature is highlighted by an increase in soil temperature variance and the frequency of short-duration freeze-thaw cycles in the warmer plots. We used a paired-plot approach to estimate the magnitude of the snow-albedo feedback effect, and demonstrate that albedo-driven warming linked to reduced snow cover varies between December (+0.4°C increase in maximum air temperature) and March (+1.2°C increase) because of differences in insolation. Overall, results show that even modest future warming will have profound impacts on northern winters and cold-season ecosystem processes. Plot-level data from this warming experiment, and emergent relationships between warming and quantities related to snow cover and duration, could be of enormous value for testing and improving the representation of snow processes in simulation models, especially under future climate scenarios that are outside of the range of historically observed variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction

Simulating the Earth's climate is an important and complex problem, thus climate models are similarly complex, comprised of millions of lines of code. In order to appropriately utilize the latest computational and software infrastructure advancements in Earth system models running on modern hybrid computing architectures to improve their performance, precision, accuracy, or all three; it is important to ensure that model simulations are repeatable and robust. This introduces the need for establishing statistical or non-bit-for-bit reproducibility, since bit-for-bit reproducibility may not always be achievable. Here, we propose a short-simulation ensemble-based test for an atmosphere model to evaluate the null hypothesis that modified model results are statistically equivalent to that of the original model. We implement this test in version 2 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The test evaluates a standard set of output variables across the two simulation ensembles and uses a false discovery rate correction to account for multiple testing. The false positive rates of the test are examined using re-sampling techniques on large simulation ensembles and are found to be lower than the currently implemented bootstrapping-based testing approach in E3SM. We also evaluate the statistical power of the test using perturbed simulation ensemble suites, each with a progressively larger magnitude of change to a tuning parameter. The new test is generally found to exhibit more statistical power than the current approach, being able to detect smaller changes in parameter values with higher confidence.

Kelleher, Michael E. [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2024

Attributing human mortality from fire PM 2.5 to climate change

Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here, in this study, we used three well-tested fire-vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) emissions to climate change. Of the 46401 (1960s) –to 98748 (2010s) annual fire PM 2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) –to 12566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia, and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity, and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, like South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Compensation Between Poleward Energy Transports in the Ocean and Atmosphere. Final report

Equator-to-pole energy transport by the ocean and atmosphere is a fundamental constraint on the Earth's climate. In his 1964 seminal paper, Jacob Bjerknes suggested that if the top-of-the atmosphere fluxes and the ocean heat storage do not vary substantially, which is a reasonable assumption on long time scales, the total energy transport by the climate system would not vary much either. This implies that any large anomalies of oceanic and atmospheric energy transports should be equal and opposite. Despite its fundamental importance in understanding the climate system, this hypothesis, the so-called Bjerknes compensation, has been tested by only a limited number of studies. The goal of our project is to investigate the degree of compensation in poleward energy transports by the atmosphere and ocean and its dependence on the time scale, latitude and background climate primarily based on a large suite of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations to test the Bjerknes compensation hypothesis. Our particular emphases are to understand: (1) robustness of the degree of the compensation across the various simulations with differing parameterizations and initial conditions, (2) the competing role of atmosphere-ocean couplings through the momentum flux and buoyancy flux in enabling or deterring the compensation, and (3) the role of compensation in the leading modes of variability in the atmosphere and ocean

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Models

Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and application of a high-resolution microfluidic device in atmospheric ice nucleation research and integrated science teaching

Ambient ice-nucleating particles (INPs) represent an important subset of aerosol particles that facilitate heterogeneous formation of ice crystals in the atmosphere, which can impact Earth system and energy. In this work, we developed an affordable high-resolution platform to replicate atmospheric immersion freezing through the unique capabilities of microfluidics to measure INP concentration of known ice nucleation active materials, as well as high-latitude soil samples. The new instrument produced comparable and extended freezing efficiency data for a multitude of samples over the temperature range of -5 to -35 °C as compared to an existing freezing assay within known uncertainties. Moreover, the new assay was integrated into science teaching at a primarily undergraduate and Hispanic-serving institute, contributing to fostering a deeper understanding of ice nucleation processes among college students, instilling their enthusiasm for science, and addressing the critical need for a well-informed citizenry. Student research assistants were involved in both research and pedagogical development processes. Three students from our team visited the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to help characterize physicochemical properties of our test samples and to test modeling of atmospheric ice nucleation using a box model as well as a global climate model (E3SM) for the regional-scale conditions over the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and Southern Great Plains (SGP). We also assessed student learning experience via hands-on training, research processes, and development of educational materials. On pre- and post-participation surveys and in exit interviews, students reported personal growth as advancements in breadth of experience, research-related skill sets, and regarding their educational and career goals. They also affirmed that the methods enacted incorporated the NASA Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP) STEM Engagement Best Practices.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1997

Radiative Transfer Modeling

Our research efforts addressed theoretical work in radiative transfer which focused the following five major items: (1) Development of three dimensional radiative transfer methods; (2) Improvement to and maintenance of radiative transfer codes; (3) Creating new data-sets to define absorption by atmos.gases; (4) Model tests and validations with data from field experiments; and (5) Model application to study climatic impact of, aerosol/clouds.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ensuring statistical reproducibility of ocean model simulations in the age of hybrid computing

Novel high performance computing systems that feature hybrid architectures require large scale code refactoring to unravel underlying exploitable parallelism. Such redesign can often be accompanied with machine-precision changes as the order of computation cannot always be maintained. For chaotic systems like climate models, these round-off level differences can grow rapidly. Systematic errors may also manifest initially as machine-precision differences. Isolating genuine round off level differences from such errors remains a challenge. Here, we apply two-sample equality of distribution tests to evaluate statistical reproducibility of the ocean model component of US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). A 2-year control simulation ensemble is compared to a modified ensemble as a test case - after a known non-bit-for-bit change in a model component is introduced - to evaluate the null hypothesis that the two ensembles are statistically indistinguishable. To quantify the false negative rates of these tests, we conduct a formal power analysis using a targeted suite of short simulation ensembles. The ensemble suite contains several perturbed ensembles, each with a progressively different climate than the baseline ensemble - obtained by perturbing the magnitude of a single model tuning parameter, the Gent and McWilliams κ, in a controlled manner. The null hypothesis is evaluated for each of perturbed ensembles using these tests. The power analysis informs on the detection limits of the tests for given ensemble size allowing model developers to evaluate the impact of an introduced non-bit-for-bit change to the model.

Mahajan, Salil↗

NASA NTRS2022

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). I. Dry Cases—The Fellowship of the GCMs

With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7 K (6 K) for the N2-dominated (CO2-dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures ∼5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping.

Martin Turbet↗