Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan
Abstract not provided.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Resilience of Alaska's Boreal Forest to Climatic Change
This paper assesses the resilience of Alaska s boreal forest system to rapid climatic change. Recent warming is associated with reduced growth of dominant tree species, plant disease and insect outbreaks, warming and thawing of permafrost, drying of lakes, increased wildfire extent, increased postfire recruitment of deciduous trees, and reduced safety of hunters traveling on river ice. These changes have modified key structural features, feedbacks, and interactions in the boreal forest, including reduced effects of upland permafrost on regional hydrology, expansion of boreal forest into tundra, and amplification of climate warming because of reduced albedo (shorter winter season) and carbon release from wildfires. Other temperature-sensitive processes for which no trends have been detected include composition of plant and microbial communities, long-term landscape-scale change in carbon stocks, stream discharge, mammalian population dynamics, and river access and subsistence opportunities for rural indigenous communities. Projections of continued warming suggest that Alaska s boreal forest will undergo significant functional and structural changes within the next few decades that are unprecedented in the last 6000 years. The impact of these social ecological changes will depend in part on the extent of landscape reorganization between uplands and lowlands and on policies regulating subsistence opportunities for rural communities.
Chapin, F. S., III↗
An Evaluation of Sustainable Power System Resilience in the Face of Severe Weather Conditions and Climate Changes: A Comprehensive Review of Current Advances
Natural disasters pose significant threats to power distribution systems, intensified by the increasing impacts of climate changes. Resilience-enhancement strategies are crucial in mitigating the resulting social and economic damages. Hence, this review paper presents a comprehensive exploration of weather management strategies, augmented by recent advancements in machine learning algorithms, to show a sustainable resilience assessment. By addressing the unique challenges posed by diverse weather conditions, we propose flexible and intelligent solutions to navigate disaster complications effectively. This proposition emphasizes sustainable practices that not only address immediate disaster complications, but also prioritize long-term resilience and adaptability. Furthermore, the focus extends to mitigation strategies and microgrid technologies adapted to distribution systems. Through statistical analysis and mathematical formulations, we highlight the critical role of these advancements in mitigating severe weather conditions and ensuring the system reliability.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Benchmarking and Disclosing Resilience Performance
This fact sheet provides an overview of trends and barriers related to disclosure of climate and resilience performance. It reviews major reporting frameworks for resilience, compares the frameworks, and provides next steps for building owners.
Resilience, Resiliency, Benchmarking, Sustainabili↗
Investigating Resiliency of Transportation Network under Targeted and Potential Climate Change Disruptions
Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical failures. Despite significant research on freight transportation resilience, investigating the robustness of the system after targeted and climate-change-driven disruption remains a crucial challenge. Drawing on network science methodologies, this study models the interdependencies within the rail and water transport networks and simulates different disruption scenarios to evaluate system responses. Here, we use the data from the U.S. Department of Energy Volpe Center for network topology and tonnage projections. The proposed framework quantifies deliberate, stochastic, and climate-driven infrastructure failure, using higher resolution downscaled multiple Earth System Models’ simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase version 6. We show that the disruptions of a few nodes could have a larger impact on the total tonnage of freight transport than on network topology. For example, the removal of targeted 20 nodes can bring the total tonnage carrying capacity to 30% with about 75% of the rail freight network intact. This research advances the theoretical understanding of transportation resilience and provides practical applications for infrastructure managers and policymakers. By implementing these strategies, stakeholders and policymakers can better prepare for and respond to unexpected disruptions, ensuring sustained operational efficiency in transportation networks.
Climate Change Disruptions↗
A business approach to climate adaptation in local communities
Climate change poses risks to the assets and operations of businesses. They can anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to the potential impacts of climate change by focusing on modifying their own internal operations. But businesses can find additional opportunities to adapt by examining their relationships with local governments. Businesses provide critical services to the communities in which they are located, and also benefit from services provided by the local governments. This symbiotic relationship is an important consideration for businesses as they work to adapt to a changing climate. By thinking broadly about how working with local governments can influence their resilience, businesses may be able to uncover additional adaptation opportunities and enhance their adaption efforts in ways they may not be able to achieve on their own. Here, this paper includes two case studies of businesses that pursued adaptation efforts with local, state, or federal government officials to provide real-world context for the symbiotic relationships that exist between the private and public sectors in communities.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
2022 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan Summary
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL, or the Laboratory) produced a Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) following Department of Energy (DOE) Guidance to assess and manage climate change related risks to the Laboratory’s assets and operations. This is a condensed summary of the Laboratory’s 2022 VARP – the full version of the document is not publicly available at this time. The VARP was led by the Pollution Prevention (P2) Program in the Environmental Protection and Compliance Division (EPC-DO) and covers the entirety of the 36-square-mile LANL site in Los Alamos, New Mexico. A Steering Committee, composed of representatives from the three main Laboratory Directorates and the Los Alamos Field Office, identified real property Critical Assets based on their Mission Dependency Index (MDI) scores. LANL used MDI scores of 70 and above, which are considered Mission-Critical, to generate a list of 141 Critical Asset facilities.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NPCC4: New York City Climate Risk Information 2022—Observations and Projections
New York City (NYC) faces many challenges in the coming decades due to climate change and its interactions with social vulnerabilities and uneven urban development patterns and processes. This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) report contributes to the Panel’s mandate to advise the city on climate change and provide timely climate risk information that can inform flexible and equitable adaptation pathways that enhance resilience to climate change. This report presents up-to-date scientific information as well as updated sea level rise projections of record. We also present a new methodology related to climate extremes and describe new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. Future work by the Panel should compare the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report with a subset of models to determine the potential impact and relevance of the “hot model” problem. NPCC4 expects to establish new projections-of-record for precipitation and temperature in 2024 based on this comparison and additional analysis. Nevertheless, the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report may be useful for NYC stakeholders in the interim as they rely on the newest generation of global climate models.
NPCC4↗
The 38 th Annual Interdisciplinary Plant Group Symposium: Enhancing the Resilience of Plant Systems to Climate Change (Meeting Summary)
The University of Missouri’s Interdisciplinary Plant Group held its 38th annual symposium on May 25–27. In short, it was a resounding success! The air was almost electric because of a confluence of events that were particular to this symposium. Not only was there great enthusiasm from students attending their first ever scientific meeting, but this was coupled with excitement and delight exuded by many of our senior invited speakers, who were attending their first in-person meeting since the Covid pandemic began. After a long planning period, and with the ongoing pandemic injecting uncertainty, it was gratifying to see the symposium unfold with such excitement and engagement among participants. The symposium was organized to address the grand challenge of “Enhancing the Resilience of Plant System to Climate Change”, by bringing together experts at the intersections of multiple disciplines to educate our community on the opportunities to develop innovative mitigation strategies and to adapt plants to climate change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Looking Beyond Bill Savings to Equity in Renewable Energy Microgrid Deployment
Microgrids powered by renewable energy can provide backup power to critical infrastructure during grid outages. These systems can also play an important role in advancing energy justice by providing economic, environmental, health, and resilience benefits for underserved communities. The value of microgrids is often measured by the economic savings and resilience provided, but there are other energy justice factors that should be considered. This paper describes a methodology for quantifying broader costs and benefits including utility bill savings, value of resilience, social cost of carbon, public health costs, and jobs associated with the construction and operation of microgrids. We evaluate these factors at three case study sites and find that including energy justice values in the cost-benefit analysis of microgrids can change investment decisions. When climate, health, resilience, and job creation are considered, cost-optimal microgrids include more renewable generation, leading to a 52-82% reduction in emissions and diesel fuel use. The net present values of the microgrids grow from negative $626,000-843,000 in the diesel only case to $10-16 million in the hybrid microgrid case and $12-19 million in the renewable microgrid case, indicating potential for greater microgrid deployment if energy justice values are incorporated in decision making. However, we also see large increases in capital expenses, which could limit deployment unless accompanied by innovative financing measures. These findings may be useful to communities as they seek to strengthen resilience to natural disasters while also improving public health, meeting climate goals, and providing economic opportunity for residents.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Street-level temperature estimation using graph neural networks: Performance, feature embedding and interpretability
Estimating street-level air temperature is a challenging task due to the highly heterogeneous urban surfaces, canyon-like street morphology, and the diverse physical processes in the built environment. Though pioneering studies have embarked on investigations via data-driven approaches, many questions remain to be answered. Here, in this study, we leveraged an innovative framework and redefined the street-level temperature estimation problem using Graph Neural Networks (GNN) with spatial embedding techniques. The results showed that GNN models are more capable and consistent of estimating street-level temperature among tested locations, benefiting from its unique strength in handling extensive data over unstructured graph topology. In addition, we conducted in-depth analysis of feature importance to enhance the model interpretability. Among the urban features analyzed in this study, the time-variant canopy density and meter-level land use data emerge as crucial factors. Our findings highlight GNN 's high potential in capturing the complex dynamics between urban elements and their impacts on microclimate, thus offering valuable insights for comprehensive urban data collection and urban climate modeling in general. Collectively, this study also contributes to urban planning and policy by providing avenues to enhance city resilience against climate change, thereby advancing the agenda for environmental stewardship and urban sustainability.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Enhancing Resilience of Urban Systems Against Climate-Induced Floods Using Advanced Data-Driven and Computing Techniques: A Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) Framework
Focal Area: This white paper proposes advanced data-driven and computing techniques to improve the predictability of extreme climate events (precipitation) and focuses on comprehending their impact dynamics to enhance resilience of urban systems. Science Challenge: In urban systems, climate change has presented significant challenges related to accurate spatiotemporal prediction of extreme climate events (heavy precipitation) and their impacts, i.e. flooding. The occurrence of extreme climate events and their compounding repercussions on the built environment make urban systems increasingly more vulnerable. The interactions between extreme climate events, urban systems, and the corresponding impacts are irregular, non-linear, and dynamic, making it difficult to standardize resilience. As it stands, the management of complex urban systems is affected by uncertainties related to the nature of short- and long-term consequences caused by extreme events.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Technical Assistance Opportunities for Tribes
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) offers many forms of technical assistance for Tribes to support local clean energy priorities and challenges. With broad support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and local partners, NREL provides technical expertise to enable data-driven, informed clean energy decision making. Technical assistance may address energy strategy, project financing, policy design and development, data analysis, economic development, infrastructure planning, energy justice, climate change, resilience, or other energy priorities. NREL has a long history of partnering with Tribes and Tribal organizations, including in Alaska Native Villages where the extreme Arctic climate poses unique energy challenges. NREL works directly with Tribes to find solutions that address their self-defined energy priorities, challenges, and goals.
Alaska native village↗
Civil Procedure for the Anthropocene
Climate considerations must become an element of procedural analysis. Scholars, rule makers, legislators, and judges have historically prioritized procedural values including cost, speed, and accuracy. More recent waves of scholarship—including critical perspectives—have emphasized participation as a further procedural goal. Yet this list has grown stale. Current environmental realities force all areas of law, including civil procedure, to reckon with climate change. In the future, proceduralists will be forced to integrate climate-aware thinking into their analyses, proposals, and discussions. Predictably, minds will disagree on how to accomplish this and the kinds of trade-offs that are warranted. Yet the fundamental point of this article remains: climate change resilience is a procedural concern that has not been recognized but must be. This signals not the genesis of a new branch of procedural scholarship but an opportunity to broaden the discussion for all procedural scholarship. In addition, this Article serves as a guide for rule makers and legislators who have just recently begun to show interest in climate-aware procedures. It directs them to procedural topics that require urgent attention, provides implementation strategies for developing resilient procedures, and considers the attendant costs and benefits of different approaches ranging from laissez-faire to aggressive engagement. Just as civil procedural innovations contributed to the emergence and success of the civil rights movement, our collective response to climate change will also be shaped by civil procedure. This Article prepares for this future and offers a corrective to the field’s failure to anticipate and respond to climate change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Energy Justice Through Energy Storage: Supporting Energy Resilience in Disadvantaged Communities
This paper reviews energy storage technologies as a possible solution to address power outages and mitigate the impacts, enhancing vulnerable communities’ resilience to climate change. More frequent and severe extreme weather events are one of the main consequences of climate change. These events, coupled with the nation’s aging and frail energy infrastructure, are causing many communities throughout the United States to experience more frequent and longer power outages, resulting in economic, health, and social impacts. Impacts from power outages are not equally felt across communities, with disproportionate impacts across communities representing a matter of energy justice. From an energy justice standpoint, programs and policies that facilitate energy storage technologies should be intentionally designed to include distributive, procedural, recognition, and restorative justice.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities
Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.
heat-related mortality↗
Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation
Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Data for Soil Oxygen Dynamics: A Key Mediator of Tile Drainage Impacts on Coupled Hydrological, Biogeochemical, and Crop Systems
Tile drainage removes excess water and is an essential, widely adopted management practice to enhance crop productivity in the US Midwest and throughout the world. Tile drainage has been shown to significantly change hydrological and biogeochemical cycles by lowering the water table and reducing the residence time of soil water, although examining the complex interactions and feedbacks in an integrated hydrology–biogeochemistry–crop system remains elusive. Oxygen dynamics are critical to unraveling these interactions and have been ignored or oversimplified in existing models. Understanding these impacts is essential, particularly so because tile drainage has been highlighted as an adaptation under projected wetter springs and drier summers in the changing climate in the US Midwest. We used the ecosys model that uniquely incorporates first-principle soil oxygen dynamics and crop oxygen uptake mechanisms to quantify the impacts of tile drainage on hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and crop growth in corn–soybean rotation fields. The model was validated with data from a multi-treatment, multi-year experiment in Washington, IA. The relative root mean square error (rRMSE) for the corn and soybean yield in validation is 5.66 % and 12.57 %, respectively. The Pearson coefficient (r) of the monthly tile flow during the growing season is 0.78. Plant oxygen stress turns out as an emergent property of the equilibrium between the soil oxygen supply and biological demand. The impact of tile drainage on the system is achieved through a series of coupled feedback mechanisms. The model results show that tile drainage reduces the soil water content and enhances soil oxygenation. It additionally increases the subsurface discharge and elevates inorganic nitrogen leaching, with seasonal variations influenced by climate and crop phenology. The improved aerobic condition alleviates crop oxygen stress during wet springs, thereby promoting crop root growth during the early growth stage. The development of greater root density, in turn, mitigates water stress during dry summers, leading to an overall increase in the crop yield by ∼6 %. These functions indicate the potential of tile drainage in bolstering crop resilience to climate change and the use of this modeling tool for large-scale assessments of tile drainage. The model reveals the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the agroecosystem response to drainage on the coupled hydrology, biogeochemistry, and crop system dynamics.
Modeling↗