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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting flash drought events to inform adaptive water management

Abstract: Flash droughts are characterized by a rapid onset of drought conditions, a common feature among various indicators of these events. The lack of a standardized definition and indicator makes flash droughts particularly challenging to predict and manage. We test six state-of-the-art flash drought indicators using 41 years of daily data across all Hydrological Unit Code 4 (HUC4) regions in the contiguous United States. Our results show substantial disagreements among indicators, suggesting that the detection of a flash drought event strongly depends on the choice of indicator. From the perspective of informing management and operations, an open challenge remains: which flash drought indicator should be used to trigger operational adaptations? To this end, we propose a methodological framework that informs adaptive actions by regionally assessing the level of agreement between different indicators. The regional differences in hydroclimatic conditions are expected to be reflected in the level of agreement between indicators. To better inform adaptive actions, the framework will also consider the impacted sectoral water uses and their varying response times. The insights gained from this study improve the understanding of how these different flash drought indicators capture the different aspects of regional differences and impacted sectors. Furthermore, this information can support more targeted adaptive actions to mitigate adverse impacts through improved preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utility-scale Building Type Assignment Using Smart Meter Data

United States building energy use accounted for 40% of total energy use, 74% of peak demand, and $412 billion in 2019. Building energy modeling allows researchers to simulate building physics, gain insights into possible energy/demand saving opportunities, and assess cost-effective resilience amidst climate change. Many building features needed to create building energy models are readily available such as 2D footprints and LiDAR (height). A critical feature that is not generally obtainable is the building type. In partnership with a utility, a years worth of real-world, 15-minute electrical use data has been examined. The smart meter data is compared to 97 different prototype building energy models to assign building type. Real-world considerations including data preparation, quality assurance, and handling of missing values for advanced metering infrastructure data are addressed. Euclidean distance for pattern-matching of energy use, dynamic time warping, and time-window statistics with machine learning are compared for determining building type from measured electricity use.

Bass, Brett↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives

We reviewed the present studies on the vulnerability and resilience of the energy ecosystem (most parts of the energy ecosystem), considering extreme climate events. This study revealed that the increased interactions formed during the transformation of the energy landscape into an ecosystem could notably increase the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure. Such complex ecosystem cannot be assessed using the present state of the art models used by the energy system modelers. Therefore, this study introduces a novel analogy known as the COVID analogy to understand the propagation of disruption within and beyond the energy ecosystem and organized the present state of the art based on the COVID analogy. The analogy helps to categorize the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure into three stages. The study revealed that although there are many publications covering the vulnerability and resilience of the energy infrastructure, considering extreme climate events, the majority are focused on the direct impact of extreme climate on the energy ecosystem. In addition, most of the studies do not consider the impact of future climate variations during this assessment. The propagation of disruptions was assessed mainly for wildfires and hurricanes. Further, there is a clear research gap in considering vulnerability assessment for interconnected energy infrastructure. Here, the transformation of energy systems into a complex ecosystem notably increases the complexity, making it difficult to assess vulnerability and resilience. A shift from a centralized to decentralized modeling architecture could be beneficial when considering the complexities brought by that transformation. Hybrid models consisting of both physical and data-driven machine learning techniques could also be beneficial in this context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Defining weather scenarios for simulation-based assessment of thermal resilience of buildings under current and future climates: A case study in Brazil

In response to increasingly severe weather conditions, optimization of building performance and investment provides an opportunity to consider co-benefits of thermal resilience during energy efficiency retrofits. This work aims to assess thermal resilience of buildings using building performance simulation to evaluate the indoor overheating risk under nine weather scenarios, considering historical (2010s), mid-term future (2050s), and long-term future (2090s) typical meteorological years, and heat wave years. Such an analysis is based on resilience profiles that combine six integrated indicators. A case study with a district of 92 buildings in Brazil was conducted, and a combination of strategies to improve thermal resilience was identified. Results reflect the necessity of planning for resilience in the context of climate change. This is because strategies recommended under current conditions might not be ideal in the future. Therefore, an adaptable design should be prioritized. Cooling energy consumption could increase by 48 % by the 2050s, while excessive overheating issues could reach 37 % of the buildings. Simple passive strategies can significantly reduce the heat stress. A comprehensive thermal resilience analysis should ultimately be accompanied by a thorough reflection on the stakeholders’ objectives, available resources, and planning horizon, as well as the risks assumed for not being resilient.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strategies to mitigate urban heat: Effects on overheating and cloud formation

This study evaluates the effectiveness of various urban heat island (UHI) overheating mitigation strategies and their associated impacts on urban cloud dynamics and thermal processes. This study shows cloud-resolving and urban-resolving modeling results estimating the impact of Houston-Galveston heat mitigation scenarios and other resilient strategies contemplated in the Climate Adaptation Plan and Resilient Houston reports. The simulated scenarios include high intensity green rooftops, rooftop photovoltaic solar panels, enhanced urban irrigation, white/cool roofs and roads, and street trees. We contrast the adaptation scenarios against a present baseline case, a no city scenario and a larger and denser city as projected by the Houston-Galveston Area Council for 2045. During the daytime, cooling strategies such as cool roofs, cool roads, and green roofs exhibit superior performance in mitigating urban overheating. At night, enhanced urban irrigation emerges as the most effective cooling intervention. Cooling strategies significantly reduce sensible heat flux partitioning during the day, a process that reduces the uplift of air, suppressing the formation of urban shallow cumulus clouds. The extent of urban cloud mixing ratio is reduced in proportion to the decrease in sensible heating. Under the BEP-Tree scenario, which includes wind effects and evapotranspiration driven by a stomatal conductance model, urban trees demonstrated negligible environmental cooling effects and minimal urban cloud modifications. In contrast, the scenarios with more urban cooling and higher latent heat fluxes led to suppressed urban clouds. The net cooling effect achieved by the heat mitigation strategies is influenced by a combination of indirect processes, including the reduction of downwelling longwave radiation flux, due to reduced cloud presence, while some warming is attributed to a modest increase in shortwave radiation that offsets the cooling benefit. Additionally, reduced heat dissipation, weakened thermal gradients, and diminished vertical mixing over urban areas further moderate the cooling potential. These findings highlight the pivotal role of clouds and moist atmospheric processes in shaping the UHI effect and offer insights for designing more effective urban cooling strategies.

albedo changes↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating agrivoltaics into smallholder farming systems to enhance food production and irrigation efficiency under climate stress

Smallholder agricultural growers and entrepreneurs (SAGE) have a crucial role in sustaining food security; their cultivation accounts for roughly 30% of global crop production and contributes substantially to the diversity and nutritional value of food systems. Despite their awareness of and flexibility to adapt to productivity challenges, SAGE communities remain highly vulnerable to heat and drought stress, which threatens both livelihoods and local food availability. While intensification and adaptive farm practices offer partial resilience, their capacity to buffer sudden climatic extremes remains limited. Agrivoltaics, the dual use of land for solar electricity generation and crop cultivation, has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance agricultural productivity and its resilience to climate extremes by altering microclimatic conditions. Although proven effective in hot and arid regions, the benefits of agrivoltaics for temperate climates and small-scale farms remain minimally explored. To address this gap, we evaluated the performance of a small-scale agrivoltaics system in a temperate climate for high-value crops, including leafy vegetables and garlic. We investigate whether the system can (i) protect crops during extreme heat events and (ii) enhance productivity and reduce irrigation requirements during hot and dry periods unsuitable for conventional production. Our findings provide evidence that agrivoltaics is a climate-resilient farming strategy under current and projected climate scenarios, capable of improving yields (by +43% to +127% for the leafy vegetables grown) and reducing water consumption, while creating complementary economic opportunities through decentralized energy generation systems. This work supports the integration of agrivoltaics into small-scale agricultural systems as an innovative pathway to strengthen food security, bolster farmer livelihoods, and enable multiple co-benefits from broader solar energy adoption.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience Issues in Building Energy Codes

This report, prepared for the International Energy Agency’s Building Energy Codes Working Group (BECWG, part of the IEA Energy in Buildings and Communities Technical Collaboration Programme, or IEA EBC), focuses on the application of building energy codes to improve the ability of buildings to provide a minimum healthy level of thermal comfort and function during extreme events. It reviews the relationship of building energy codes to the other building resilience policies and strategies, such as other building life/safety codes, community planning or zoning to discourage rebuilding in areas most prone to climate disasters, and other resilience planning strategies. The report provides an overview of how different jurisdictions address resilience issues in building energy codes in countries that are part of the IEA EBC Building Energy Codes Working Group.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

AI-Based Optimal Design and Controls Can Greatly Reduce Carbon Emissions and Enhance Resilience in Residential Communities in Cold Climates

Net-zero energy residential communities are crucial for achieving decarbonization goals, but the high-penetration photovoltaic (PV) in those communities is posing challenges to the distribution grid. Traditional design and operation of net-zero communities rely on rule-of-thumb methods and may not work in complex scenarios. Artificial intelligence and machine learning methods can optimally size PV for net-zero energy, identify user preferences and usage patterns, and fully unlock the potential of distributed energy resources to address distribution grid issues.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assisted migration in a warmer and drier climate: less climate buffering capacity, less facilitation and more fires at temperate latitudes?

Assisted tree migration has been proposed as a conceptual solution to mitigate lags in biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. The rationale behind this concept is that tree species currently growing under warmer and drier climates will be more resistant and resilient to the new climatic conditions than tree species naturally growing in currently wetter and colder climates. However, we hypothesize that, by being more stress‐tolerant to warmer and drier conditions, translocated species should exhibit different functional attributes, which could induce important ecological and societal costs and overcome the desired benefits of maintaining wood production and other ecosystem services. We used principal component analysis (PCA) to analyze variation in seven traits of 106 tree and tall shrub species from contrasting latitudinal distributions in western North America and Europe to predict the potential functional changes of forest ecosystems due to the translocation of tree species from low to high latitudes. We show that species from both continents differed primarily by their position on the leaf economy spectrum (LES) and their size traits. Even though, in Europe, differences in LES were significantly correlated to species southern latitudinal positions, in both continents differences in size traits were significantly correlated to latitude. These results suggest that assisted migration by translocating more conservative species of shorter stature in currently cooler climates should decrease the buffering capacity of forest canopies, decrease facilitation for understory species, and increase wildfire risks, whose effects have the potential to accelerate climate warming through negative atmospheric feedback processes. As an alternative solution to assisted migration that may accelerate rather than mitigate climate change, we recommend that foresters gradually diversify the vertical structure and layering of the existing forest canopy to maintain a sustainable water cycle and energy balance between the soil, the tree and the atmosphere without increasing the wildfire risk.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Planning decentralized urban renewable energy systems using algal cultivation for closed-loop and resilient communities

To tackle climate challenges, communities need to harvest renewable energy and resources on site locally to close the loops for enhancing the resilience of communities facing unpredictable and uncertain future changes. A decentralization planning of urban renewable energy systems is proposed by treating urban waste streams and producing biomass through applying algal biotechnology. When applying algal technology as a renewable and decentralized energy source in urban systems, the overall performance can vary by levels of urban nutrients, solar and CO 2 resources, and the transportation cost when considering its application to different urban densities, urban form, and the spatial scale of urban settings. This research explores three potential impacts on the algal system’s energy performance: (1) urban density, (2) urban form in different contexts, and (3) spatial scale. The research examines the impacts by testing urban settings given in actual contexts in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Four neighborhoods representing the high-density urban, mid-density urban, mixed suburban, and typical suburban areas are investigated. The density-scale–performance relationships are explored through testing different urban forms of neighborhoods in both hypothetical and actual neighborhood settings. A GIS-based model is developed to estimate the overall energy performance of the decentralized renewable energy system in urban environments. Results show that the energy performance is positive mainly for high-density urban neighborhoods with small-to-medium scales, up to 0.36 MJ per ton of municipal solid wastes for actual settings and 0.37 MJ for hypothetical cases. Neighborhoods with higher density have higher energy performance while up scaling has negative effects on the energy performance with a low degree of significance. Optimal scales are found as a 1-km radius in real test beds and 1.3 km in hypothetical settings, in which the results show trade-offs between scaling effects in the system efficiency gain and the transportation cost increase.

Quan, Steven Jige↗
DOE OSTI2026

Urban agrivoltaics enhance crop resilience and food-energy synergies in a changing climate

Urban agrivoltaics, the synergistic integration of solar photovoltaics with urban agriculture, offers a transformative solution to food and energy insecurity, which are major barriers to sustainable urban development, especially in low-income urban areas facing intensified heat and water stress due to climate change. With 70% of the global population projected to live in cities by 2050, maximizing underutilized urban spaces is critical. Our study presents the first evaluation of ground-based agrivoltaics in an urban context, demonstrating that, while early-season yields may decline due to light reduction in temperate climates, productivity rebounds during periods of extreme heat, extending harvest windows and enhancing crop resilience. As cities seek climate-adaptive infrastructure, converting just a fraction of vacant land and rooftops to urban agrivoltaics can yield significant co-benefits such as generating renewable energy for thousands of households while supplying fresh produce to help alleviate food deserts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power Systems Resilience

As communities take steps toward identifying and achieving their clean energy goals, the topic of resilience will likely emerge. This presentation aims to help inform and empower communities as they explore how their clean energy projects can address evolving power systems reliability and resilience due to climate change and other factors. The training provides a basic introduction to power systems and the resilience challenges this traditional infrastructure faces, as well as strategies for enhancing this important quality of electric service.

communities↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Drives Modeled Forest Carbon Cycling Resistance and Resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond (resistance) and recover from (resilience) to rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the ED-2.2 model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900, and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes, and interacted with one another. We then calculated metrics of functional ecosystem stability. Modeled gross primary production exhibited a mean resistance of -0.13, -0.23, and -0.42 (unitless) in response to increasing disturbance severity of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality, respectively; and resilience of 0.002, 0.004, 0.008 (yr-1) respectively. This pattern held true for other carbon fluxes, meaning that in general simulated GPP declined more initially but recovered more quickly from higher mortality. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Expanding the Field of Climate Finance

Over the past twenty-one years, the Financial Innovations Roundtable (FIR), located at the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire, has worked to address problems related to access to capital for low- and moderate-income consumers and communities. Since 2014, the event has been co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Board. The FIR works with a range of financial institutions, government agencies, foundations, and trade associations to access their expertise for problem-solving discussions. The 2020 FIR focused on the expanding field of climate finance and was co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and The Climate Safe Lending Network. The event was originally slated to be in-person in San Francisco in May 2020 but was postponed due to the pandemic and shifted to an online event hosted November 16‒17, 2020. A significant amount has happened in 2020 on climate finance, racial justice, the economy, and COVID-19. The shocks and stresses of climate change are creating risks in low- and moderate-income communities as well as in the financial sector broadly. The 2020 FIR offered an opportunity to discuss the challenges and opportunities banks and Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) face as they address these risks and how these institutions can help increase individual, institutional, and community-wide resilience. The program explored new and modified products that address climate risk in communities and how those products can be scaled. Conversations focused around: • The progress that has been made in the climate finance field and the challenges that lie ahead for financial institutions’ climate impact and climate-related risk. • Promising opportunities to decarbonize investments and finance low-carbon technology and infrastructure. • How lenders, insurers, housing organizations, and the public sector can work together to reduce housing instability due to climate-related factors and increase the climate-resilience of homes and neighborhoods. • Solutions to help communities address a wide range of related issues, including home weatherization and disaster preparation, home insurance loss, and climate gentrification and displacement. • Discussing lessons learned from other sectors such as renewable energy in order to design both people-based and place-based finance solutions that promote racial and economic inclusion. 1 • The need for all financial institutions to acknowledge that climate risks and racial inequity are systemic risks affecting their bottom line. • The role that bank regulators can play in promoting collaboration across the financial sector and in leading by example with regard to climate finance. • Mapping out concrete action-item initiatives including policy and industry pathways to climate safe lending as well as building a financing platform to provide clean energy to low-income communities. • More broadly, in order to systemically address climate risks, we will need to work together as a range of stakeholders across sectors and collaborate on shared goals and projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Natural variation in growth and yield to waterlogging across climate-diverse pennycress accessions

Many winter annual crops, such as pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L.), are subjected to heavy precipitation events during their growing season. Therefore, it is essential to identify pennycress accessions with natural variation in flooding resilience. We used climate modeling data to assess spring soil moisture levels in the geographic origins of 471 natural pennycress accessions. We selected 34 accessions with variation in predicted soil moisture and tested survivability under prolonged waterlogging at the rosette stage. It took seven weeks for the first accessions to die, indicating that pennycress is hardy to prolonged waterlogging at the vegetative stage. Furthermore, we chose ‘susceptible’ and ‘tolerant’ accessions to waterlog for one week at the reproductive stage, the growth stage aligned with spring rainfall. Six accessions had significantly reduced seed weight at maturity and two had minimal impacts on growth and seed yield after waterlogging and can be further explored for adaptive traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Local and utility-wide cost allocations for a more equitable wildfire-resilient distribution grid

Climate-induced extreme weather conditions make electricity infrastructure more vulnerable. They increase the risk of power-line-ignited wildfires which can, in turn, jeopardize electric power delivery. Here, leveraging machine learning, we show that lower-income communities in California not only have lower fractions of power distribution lines undergrounded, but overhead lines and poles in their neighbourhoods are also more vulnerable to wildfires. Should they bear the cost of undergrounding fire-prone lines themselves, they would have to pay a disproportionately higher cost per household. We propose a cost allocation scheme with an income threshold below which the cost is borne by utility-wide ratepayers and above which the cost is borne locally. This scheme can not only minimize the average of undergrounding costs per household as a share of income, but also homogenize such cost–income ratios across communities. Furthermore, our research demonstrates the opportunity to appropriately integrate existing policies to make electricity infrastructure affordable, equitable and reliable amidst climate change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-enabled model-data integration for predicting subsurface water storage

Subsurface water storage (SWS) is a key variable of the climate system and a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the climate system. It plays a critical role in climate-change projections and can mitigate the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. However, because of the difficult accessibility of the underground, hydrologic properties and dynamics of SWS are poorly known. Direct observations of SWS are limited, and accurate incorporation of SWS dynamics into Earth system land models remains challenging. We propose a machine learning-enabled model-data integration framework to improve the SWS prediction at local to conus scales in a changing climate by leveraging all the available observation and simulation resources, as well as to inform the model development and guide the observation collection. The accurate prediction will enable an optimal decision of water management and land use and improve the ecosystem's resilience to the climate change.

Lu, Dan↗