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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Southern Rockies Western Slope Agriculture: Identifying Drivers of Rangeland Production for Drought Planning on the Western Slope of the Southern Rockies

Over the last decade, the southern Rocky Mountains of the United States experienced severe and variable drought. Local ranchers and landowners have reported strain on their operations, citing decreasing forage for their cattle and a need to adjust their business models. This study identified Major Land Resource Area-48 (MLRA-48) and northwestern Colorado as the key region for analysis. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the BLM Colorado River Field Office, Colorado State University Extension, USDA Forest Service, and the National Drought Mitigation Center to address concerns regarding the efficacy of remotely sensed rangeland production platforms and identify early warning climatic indicators of drought. The study identified two key platforms, The Rangeland Productivity Monitoring Service (RPMS) and Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), which use NASA Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI, and Landsat 9 OLI-2 to estimate rangeland biomass. We regressed these with in situ biomass data to validate their efficacy and found that RAP was more effective than RPMS in estimating rangeland biomass, though it presents a tendency to overestimate. Our study performed a random forest analysis, comparing monthly RAP biomass estimates to a variety of climate variables, including mean precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Index, snow water equivalent, snow persistence from Terra MODIS, wind speed and direction, and vapor pressure deficit. We determined that vapor pressure deficit and precipitation are key indicators in predicting forage production in MLRA-48. Our climate analysis provided our partners with greater understanding of the influence of various climate variables in determining rangeland production and allows them to assist land managers in drought mitigation.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2016

Constructing an AIRS Climatology for Data Visualization and Analysis to Serve the Climate Science and Application Communities

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for NASA sounders: the present Aqua AIRS mission and the succeeding SNPP CrIS mission. The AIRS mission is entering its 15th year of global observations of the atmospheric state, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases. The GES DISC, in collaboration with the AIRS Project, released product from the version 6 algorithm in early 2013. Giovanni, a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC, provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data without having to download the data. Most important variables from version 6 AIRS product are available in Giovanni. We are developing a climatology product using 14-year AIRS retrievals. The study can be a good start for the long term climatology from NASA sounders: the AIRS and the succeeding CrIS. This presentation will show the impacts to the climatology product from different aggregation methods. The climatology can serve climate science and application communities in data visualization and analysis, which will be demonstrated using a variety of functions in version 4 Giovanni. The highlights of these functions include user-defined monthly and seasonal climatology, inter annual seasonal time series, anomaly analysis.

AIRS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Water availability modulates maximum canopy heights of low-elevation Amazonian second-growth forests

Tropical second-growth forests of the Amazon sequester large amounts of carbon and are important carbon sinks, contributing substantially to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and providing crucial ecosystem services. Deforestation due to selective logging and shifting cultivation is expanding second-growth forest areas in tropical forest regions, which if well managed, regenerate rapidly over time. Maximum forest canopy height is an important metric of biomass and carbon accumulation in second-growth forests and is strongly influenced by water availability. The water limitation hypothesis explains the positive influence of water availability on maximum tree heights and has been examined and demonstrated at a small-scale using field data, and at a global scale, with limited accuracy, using remote sensing data in tropical ecosystems. However, this hypothesis concerning maximum canopy height has not been much studied at regional and national scales for tropical second-growth forests. In this study, we leveraged NASA GEDI spaceborne lidar data across the Brazilian Amazon and derived second-growth forest relative height metrics for delineating the influence of water availability, second-growth forest age, and topographic elevation on maximum canopy height. Water availability was found to significantly influence the maximum canopy height of second-growth forest trees, of age range from 30 to 35 years, at elevations less than 500 m and maximum precipitation thresholds of 1500 mm. Our results indicate that changing precipitation patterns or increased drought conditions under different climate change regimes could impact forest structure, plant communities, ecosystem functioning, and carbon sequestration capabilities of tropical second-growth forests in the Amazon.

Carbon sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design Requirements and Software Specification for the Autonomous Energy Management Software System for Small Commercial Buildings

Commercial buildings are responsible for approximately 20 percent of the total United States energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Over 85 percent of these buildings lack building automation systems. Many of these buildings are small (<50,000 square feet), underserved, and use rooftop units for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning needs. Because these buildings lack proper energy management systems, they have several operational deficiencies that lead to excess energy consumption. Studies have shown that managing the rooftop units heating and cooling set points, schedules, setbacks, and optimal start can result in 20 to 25 percent reduction in electricity consumption in small commercial buildings. In addition, improving demand flexibility of these buildings will result additional cost savings for the building owner. Therefore, the Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office approved a project to address the needs for small commercial buildings. The project is led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with Intellimation LLC as the cooperative research and development agreement partner. The primary goal of the project is to develop and validate an autonomous energy management software (AEMS) system that will continuously optimize small commercial building operations by minimizing energy consumption and cost, while providing a solution for maximizing decarbonization benefits from electrification of buildings. The work will leverage the vast experience of PNNL research and development staff who have over two decades of experience in developing and successfully transferring software technologies to the private sector. This solution will be jointly developed with Intellimation, a company that plans to use it to scale their building energy efficiency (EE) and grid services offering. Widespread deployment of the AEMS system will improve the EE and demand flexibility of the building commercial building stock. It should also support cities and states in meeting their climate change mitigation goals. This document describes the various EE and grid service features of the AEMS system, infrastructure and data required to implement those features, and how the features should be automated. It also details how the various features will be tested and validated, including field validation. The document also details what flexibility the users have and how they will be able to leverage those capabilities exercise those. The intent is to create an AEMS system that would support scalable deployment, requires minimal configuration, and is easy to maintain over its expected lifespan. The initial alpha release of AEMS system is planned for March 2023, and the beta release is planned for the summer of 2023. The final release is planned for March 2024. Section 2 of the report documents the relevant building types that AEMS is suitable for. Section 3 documents EE features that will be supported. It will also include the data requirements, hardware requirements, implementation details, and how EE features will be tested and validated. Grid service features will be documented in section 4, including data requirements, hardware requirements, implementation details, and how the services will be tested and validated. Planned next steps are described in section 5.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Marine Biodiversity Observation Network Plankton Workshops: Plankton Ecosystem Function, Biodiversity, and Forecasting—Research Requirements and Applications

Plankton functional diversity is at the core of various ecological processes, including productivity, carbon cycling and sequestration, nutrient cycling, interspecies interactions, food web dynamics and structure. Through these functions, plankton play a critical role in the health of the coastal and open ocean and provide essential ecosystem services. Yet, at present, our understanding of plankton dynamics is insufficient to project how climate change and other human-driven impacts affect the functional diversity of plankton. That limits our ability to predict how critical ecosystem services will change in the future and develop strategies to adapt to these changes.

Plankton↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inclusive Innovation and Entrepreneurship Roundtable

On June 22, 2021, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory hosted a roundtable to discuss the role that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) can play in supporting inclusive and just innovation and entrepreneurship. This roundtable convened individuals from DOE, as well as experts in climate and energy justice, entrepreneurship and innovation, and incubation and acceleration services to understand barriers to entry for communities who have been historically underserved by DOE funding instruments. With the intention of cultivating active discussions among participants, the roundtable was anchored by two rounds of breakout sessions that complemented the RFI addressing inclusive innovation and entrepreneurship in climate technologies that DOE released on June 9, 2021. This report synthesizes the breakout room discussions during the roundtable before presenting overarching themes that were identified from the event.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Southern Rockies Western Slope Agriculture: Identifying Drivers of Rangeland Production for Drought Planning on the Western Slope of the Southern Rockies

Over the last decade, the southern Rocky Mountains of the United States have experienced increasingly severe and variable drought. Local ranchers and landowners have reported strain on their operations, citing decreasing forage production for their cattle and a need to adjust their business models, even considering abandoning their businesses altogether. The study identified Major Land Resource Area-48 (MLRA-48) and northwestern Colorado as the key region for analysis. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the BLM Colorado River Field Office, Colorado State University Extension, USDA Forest Service, and the National Drought Mitigation Center to address stakeholder concerns of the efficacy of existing remotely sensed rangeland production estimation platforms and explore possible early warning climatic indicators of drought. The study identified two key rangeland platforms, the Rangeland Production Monitoring Service (RPMS) and Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) and used in-situ data to statistically validate their efficacy. RAP outperformed RPMS in estimating in-situ biomass and was therefore used in our climate modeling. Our study performed a random forest analysis, sampling 1500 points across the study area, comparing monthly RAP biomass estimates to a variety of climatic variables, including mean precipitation, temperature, palmer drought severity index, snow water equivalent, wind speed and direction, and vapor pressure deficit. After analysis, our study determined that vapor pressure deficit is a key indicator in predicting forage production in MLRA-48. Our study recommends the use of RAP in estimating potential forage, with caution for its tendency to overestimate. Our climate analysis provided our partners with greater understanding of the influence of various climatic factors in determining forage production and allows them to assist landowners in planning for future drought.

Addie Gonzalez↗
NASA NTRS2016

Remote Sensing and Modeling for Improving Operational Aquatic Plant Management

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California’s water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, water quality changes, and expansion of invasive aquatic plants threatens ecosystems, impedes ecosystem restoration, and is economically, environmentally, and sociologically detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California and local governments to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and waterway managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes. The team provides a comprehensive understanding of agricultural and urban land use in the Delta and the major water sheds (San Joaquin/Sacramento) supplying the Delta and interaction with drought and climate impacts on the environment, water quality, and weed growth. The team recommends conservation and modified land-use practices and aids local Delta stakeholders in developing management strategies. New remote sensing tools have been developed to enhance ability to assess conditions, inform decision support tools, and monitor management practices. Science gaps in understanding how native and invasive plants respond to altered environmental conditions are being filled and provide critical biological response parameters for Delta-SWAT simulation modeling. Operational agencies such as the California Department of Boating and Waterways provide testing and act as initial adopter of decision support tools. Methods developed by the project can become routine land and water management tools in complex river delta systems.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2016

Adaptive Management Methods to Protect the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Water Resource

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, water quality changes, and expansion of invasive aquatic plants threatens ecosystems, impedes ecosystem restoration, and is economically, environmentally, and sociologically detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California and local governments to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and waterway managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes. The team provides a comprehensive understanding of agricultural and urban land use in the Delta and the major water sheds (San Joaquin/Sacramento) supplying the Delta and interaction with drought and climate impacts on the environment, water quality, and weed growth. The team recommends conservation and modified land-use practices and aids local Delta stakeholders in developing management strategies. New remote sensing tools have been developed to enhance ability to assess conditions, inform decision support tools, and monitor management practices. Science gaps in understanding how native and invasive plants respond to altered environmental conditions are being filled and provide critical biological response parameters for Delta-SWAT simulation modeling. Operational agencies such as the California Department of Boating and Waterways provide testing and act as initial adopter of decision support tools. Methods developed by the project can become routine land and water management tools in complex river delta systems.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2017

Lessons Learned While Exploring Cloud-Native Architectures for NASA EOSDIS Applications and Systems

NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is a coordinated series of satellites for long term global observations. NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is a multi-petabyte-scale archive of environmental data that supports global climate change research by providing end-to-end services from EOS instrument data collection to science data processing to full access to EOS and other earth science data. On a daily basis, the EOSDIS ingests, processes, archives and distributes over 3 terabytes of data from NASA's Earth Science missions representing over 6000 data products ranging from various types of science disciplines. EOSDIS has continually evolved to improve the discoverability, accessibility, and usability of high-impact NASA data spanning the multi-petabyte-scale archive of Earth science data products. Reviewed and approved by Chris Lynnes.

Cumulus↗
NASA NTRS2024

Kentucky Disasters: Multi-Hazard Approach to Mapping Flood Susceptibility and Vulnerability in Kentucky

Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster in Kentucky, with major flood events in 2022 and 2023 highlighting the need for flood risk assessment. In partnership with the National Weather Service Jackson and Paducah Forecast Offices and the Kentucky Climate Center, we mapped flood risk in Kentucky using a multi-hazard approach that considered two dimensions of risk: flood susceptibility based on a weighted combination of seven physical factors and flood vulnerability based on 13 socioeconomic and infrastructure factors. We additionally analyzed NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations of surface soil moisture to explore the utility of SMAP observations for future analysis of flood risk. By analyzing flood susceptibility, we found that with equal rainfall, western Kentucky generally displays a higher propensity to flood than eastern Kentucky. In contrast, our flood vulnerability analysis indicated that more vulnerable areas were generally concentrated in the eastern part of the state. Through a combined perspective, our flood risk analysis identified much of the state as having moderate degrees of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. Our parallel analysis of antecedent soil moisture found that SMAP soil moisture levels were variable in the months leading up to each flood event but were drier than normal in the month prior to the 2023 event, as shown by negative soil moisture anomalies. These results were limited by challenges with weighting input parameters and a lack of validation but overall demonstrate the feasibility of using GIS and Earth observations for mapping flood risk and soil moisture.

analytic hierarchy process↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multifunctional landscapes for dedicated bioenergy crops lead to low-carbon market-competitive biofuels

Switchgrass is a promising feedstock for cellulosic biorefineries, due to its ability to maintain comparatively high biomass yields across a wide range of soil and climatic conditions. However, there is an incomplete understanding of the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated with cultivating switchgrass on low-productivity land for conversion to biofuels. This study surveys prior literature and demonstrates a new integrated assessment framework, including agroecosystem, ecosystem services valuation, technoeconomic, and life-cycle assessment models, to quantify and contextualize the economic and environmental impacts of switchgrass cultivation on marginal land with downstream conversion to biofuels. Monetizing and incorporating the value of ecosystem services, such as improved water quality benefits from nitrate and sediment reductions, climate change mitigation benefits from CO 2 emission reduction, and recreational and pollination benefits from increased biodiversity, the modeled multifunctional landscape reduces the ethanol production cost by 33.3–58.9 cents/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent ($\$$1.3–2.2/gge). Planting switchgrass in low productivity land improves soil health, resulting in the carbon footprint reduction credit of 12.8–20.2 gCO 2e /MJ. For an improved switchgrass-to-ethanol conversion pathway with the maximum benefits from ecosystem services, the minimum ethanol selling price and carbon footprint of ethanol, respectively, could reach to 31 cents/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent (47% reduction relative to average gasoline price) and 3 gCO 2e /MJ (97% reduction relative to gasoline). In conclusion, this low carbon renewable ethanol leads to substantial State and/or Federal policy incentives (~$\$$1/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent) providing a large benefit to biorefinery operators, farmers, and the public as a whole.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interoperable Map Services with Performance Tuning for Earth Science Data through API-Tiles and Dynamic API-Styles

NASA’s Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) provides access to a wide range of global climate data from various satellite missions and models. However, the visualization and analysis of these data can be challenging due to their large volume, complex structure, and diverse formats. This study presents the implementation of interoperable map services (API-Maps) with performance tuning using API-Tiles and dynamic API-Styles. API-Maps is a standard for defining and exposing map services through RESTful (representational state transfer) APIs (application programming interfaces). API-Tiles is a technique for generating and delivering map tiles on demand from any data source. API-Styles is a method for dynamically applying styles to map tiles based on user preferences or data attributes. The use of API-Tiles and dynamic API-Styles enhances the performance and scalability of the map services, allowing for smooth and interactive visualization of large datasets. Two types of Earth Science data sources from the NASA GES DISC are used in the experiment: regularly gridded data, such as Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) precipitation data, and low processing level data, such as low-level data of atmospheric composite measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) mission. Re-gridding of swath data (low level data - e.g. Level 2) of atmospheric composites (e.g. TROPOMI products, such as nitrogen dioxide, ozone and aerosol optical depth) is applied to enable the Web-based, interoperable, tiled, and styled mapping (rendering) services of such data. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in providing fast and efficient access to Earth science data through interoperable map services.

Geographic Information System↗
NASA NTRS2014

Temperature and Humidity Profiles in the TqJoint Data Group of AIRS Version 6 Product for the Climate Model Evaluation

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission is entering its 13th year of global observations of the atmospheric state, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing long-wave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases. Thus AIRS data have been widely used, among other things, for short-term climate research and observational component for model evaluation. One instance is the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which uses AIRS version 5 data in the climate model evaluation. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for data from the AIRS mission. The GES DISC, in collaboration with the AIRS Project, released data from the version 6 algorithm in early 2013. The new algorithm represents a significant improvement over previous versions in terms of greater stability, yield, and quality of products. The ongoing Earth System Grid for next generation climate model research project, a collaborative effort of GES DISC and NASA JPL, will bring temperature and humidity profiles from AIRS version 6. The AIRS version 6 product adds a new "TqJoint" data group, which contains data for a common set of observations across water vapor and temperature at all atmospheric levels and is suitable for climate process studies. How different may the monthly temperature and humidity profiles in "TqJoint" group be from the "Standard" group where temperature and water vapor are not always valid at the same time? This study aims to answer the question by comprehensively comparing the temperature and humidity profiles from the "TqJoint" group and the "Standard" group. The comparison includes mean differences at different levels globally and over land and ocean. We are also working on examining the sampling differences between the "TqJoint" and "Standard" group using MERRA data.

climate model evaluation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Housing-Performance Atlas of Baltimore Row Homes: Archetype-Based Multi-Hazard Baseline of Energy, Heat, Survivability, and Durability

Baltimore’s historic row-home neighborhoods face escalating risks to energy, heat, and durability under intensifying climate stress. This study develops a Housing-Performance Atlas that quantifies multi-hazard performance for eight representative archetypes using DesignBuilder/EnergyPlus Version 7.3.1.003, under Baltimore TMY3 boundary conditions. Performance is evaluated across the following four adaptation domains: energy use intensity, passive survivability during 72 h outage events, roof overheating exposure (>150 °F exceedance hours), and material service life derived from ISO 15686 and synthesized into Lean and Full Deficit Indices for comparative resilience ranking. Results show that EUI ranged from 46.7 to 67.6 kBtu ft −2 ·yr −1 , survivability from 0 to 23 h, and roof temperatures exceeded 150 °F for 150–210 h, shortening roof service life by up to 10 years. Composite Lean and Full Deficit Indices ranged 7.8–92.4, ranking Model 5 (end-unit, flat roof, two-story with basement) as the most resilient configuration and Model 8 (end-unit, pitched roof, three-story above-grade) as the least resilient due to compounded overheating and energy losses. Heat-related domains accounted for nearly 70% of overall resilience deficits, confirming thermal safety and roof reflectivity as retrofit priorities. The Housing-Performance Atlas establishes a reproducible diagnostic framework linking simulation, service life, and resilience metrics to guide cost-effective, climate-responsive retrofits in Baltimore’s aging urban housing stock.

Housing-Performance atlas↗
NASA NTRS2019

Connecting Space to Village: Tethys Adoption Within SERVIR

The SERVIR program, a joint development initiative of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), works in partnership with leading regional organizations world-wide to help developing countries use information provided by Earth observing satellites and geospatial technologies for managing climate risks and land use. SERVIR empowers decision-makers with tools, products, and services to act locally on critical issues related to four key areas: Food Security and Agriculture, Water and Water-related Disasters, Land Use/Land Cover and Ecosystems, Weather and Climate. SERVIR is improving awareness, increasing access to information, and supporting analysis to help people in West Africa, Eastern and Southern Africa, Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH), the Lower Mekong, South America and Mesoamerica. NASA funds an Applied Sciences Team (AST), composed of experts from universities and research institutions around the United States. Through AST, SERVIR adopted the Tethys platform introduced by Brigham Young University (BYU) for the implementation of tools to deliver scientific data to stakeholders in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region. Several Tethys applications developed within SERVIR have raised interest amongst decision makers in the countries served by our regional hubs. They see these new apps as key vehicles to disseminate complex information related to weather models, hydrological models, and air quality monitoring, and as such the scope of our Tethys efforts continue to expand to other regions. As of July 2019, each one of the SERVIR hubs (with the exception of Amazonia, which has only recently started), have stood up Tethys portals and have at least one individual trained in the implementation and maintenance of a Tethys portal and in the creation of basic applications. HKH, with BYU's valuable support, has implemented very sophisticated applications that showcase the possibilities and the benefits that the Tethys platform brings.

Tethys↗
DOE OSTI2022

A business approach to climate adaptation in local communities

Climate change poses risks to the assets and operations of businesses. They can anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to the potential impacts of climate change by focusing on modifying their own internal operations. But businesses can find additional opportunities to adapt by examining their relationships with local governments. Businesses provide critical services to the communities in which they are located, and also benefit from services provided by the local governments. This symbiotic relationship is an important consideration for businesses as they work to adapt to a changing climate. By thinking broadly about how working with local governments can influence their resilience, businesses may be able to uncover additional adaptation opportunities and enhance their adaption efforts in ways they may not be able to achieve on their own. Here, this paper includes two case studies of businesses that pursued adaptation efforts with local, state, or federal government officials to provide real-world context for the symbiotic relationships that exist between the private and public sectors in communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2 concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.

climate change↗