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Observations on the Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues are illustrated by a detailed example and summary of current research in the area. The application of MLT to aviation operations falls into two categories: (a) based on the lack of a physics-based model, MLT is the favored approach and (b) marginal difference between regression methods using physics-based models and MLT. Further research is needed in the selection of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations: A Case Study

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues are illustrated by a detailed example and summary of current research in the area. The application of MLT to aviation operations falls into two categories 58; (a) based on the lack of a physics-based model, MLT is the favored approach and (b) marginal difference between regression methods using physics-based models and MLT. Further research is needed in the selection of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations: NASA Case Studies

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques(MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues relating to data, feature selection and validation of the models are illustrated by examining case studies of the application of MLT to problems in air traffic management at NASA. Further research is needed in the application of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Lessons Learned in the Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Air Traffic Management

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in Air Traffic Management (ATM). The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large databases. This paper reviews the current-state-of-the art in applying MLT to aviation operations, its promises and challenges. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The promises and challenges in applying MLT to ATM is traced through three examples based on the authors’ experience, each separated by a decade, to show the influence of data and feature selection in the successful application of MLT to ATM. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Machine Learning Techniques↗

Technical Challenges and Lessons from the Migration of the GLOBE Data and Information System to Utilize Cloud Computing Service

The Global Learning and Observation to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Data and Information System supports an international science and education program with capabilities to accept local environment observations, archive, display and visualize them along with global satellite observations. Since its inception twenty years ago, the Web and database system has been upgraded periodically to accommodate the changes in technology and the steady growth of GLOBEs education community and collection of observations. Recently, near the end-of-life of the system hardware, new commercial computer platform options were explored and a decision made to utilize Cloud services. Now the GLOBE DIS has been fully deployed and maintained using Amazon Cloud services for over two years now. This paper reviews the early risks, actual challenges, and some unexpected findings as a result of the GLOBE DIS migration. We describe the plans, cost drivers and estimates, highlight adjustments that were made and suggest improvements. We present the trade studies for provisioning, for load balancing, networks, processing, storage, as well as production, staging and backup systems. We outline the migration teams skills and required level of effort for transition, and resulting changes in the overall maintenance and operations activities. Examples include incremental adjustments to processing capacity and frequency of backups, and efforts previously expended on hardware maintenance that were refocused onto application-specific enhancements.

GLOBE↗

Technical Challenges and Lessons from the Migration of the GLOBE Data and Information System to Utilize Cloud Computing Service

The Global Learning and Observation to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Data and Information System supports an international science and education program with capabilities to accept local environment observations, archive, display and visualize them along with global satellite observations. Since its inception twenty years ago, the Web and database system has been upgraded periodically to accommodate the changes in technology and the steady growth of GLOBEs education community and collection of observations. Recently, near the end-of-life of the system hardware, new commercial computer platform options were explored and a decision made to utilize Cloud services. Now the GLOBE DIS has been fully deployed and maintained using Amazon Cloud services for over two years now. This paper reviews the early risks, actual challenges, and some unexpected findings as a result of the GLOBE DIS migration. We describe the plans, cost drivers and estimates, highlight adjustments that were made and suggest improvements. We present the trade studies for provisioning, for load balancing, networks, processing, storage, as well as production, staging and backup systems. We outline the migration teams skills and required level of effort for transition, and resulting changes in the overall maintenance and operations activities. Examples include incremental adjustments to processing capacity and frequency of backups, and efforts previously expended on hardware maintenance that were refocused onto application-specific enhancements.

GLOBE Data↗

Development of a climatological data base to help forecast cloud cover conditions for shuttle landings at the Kennedy Space Center

The Space Shuttle is an extremely weather sensitive vehicle with very restrictive constraints for both launches and landings. The most important difference between Shuttle and normal aircraft landings is that the Shuttle has no go-around capability once it begins its decent into the earth's atmosphere. The de-orbit burn decision is generally made approximately 90 minutes before landing requiring a forecast with little room for error. Because of the Shuttle's rapid re-entry to earth, the pilot must be able to see all runway and visual navigation aids from high altitude to land the Shuttle. In addition, the heat resistant tiles which are used to protect the Shuttle during its re-entry into the earth's atmosphere are extremely sensitive to any type of precipitation. Extensive damage to these tiles could occur if the Shuttle passes through any cloud that contains precipitation size particles. To help guard against changing weather conditions or any type of weather problems that might occur prior to landing, flight rules have been developed as guidelines for all landings. Although the rules vary depending on the location of the landing (Kennedy Space Center or Edwards AFB), length of mission, and weight of vehicle, most of the rules can be condensed into 4 major groupings. These are: (1) Cloud ceilings should not be less than 3048 m (10,000 feet), (2) Visibility should not be less than 13 km (7 nm), (3) Cross-wind no greater than 5-8 m/s (10-15 knots); and (4) No showers or thunderstorms at or within 56 km (30 nm) of the Shuttle Landing Facility. This study consisted of developing a climatological database of the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) surface observations and performing an analysis of observed conditions one and two hours subsequent to given conditions at the SLF to help analyze the 0.2 cloud cover rule. Particular emphasis was placed on Shuttle landing weather violations and the amounts of cloud cover below 3048 m (10,000 ft.). This analysis has helped to determine the best and worst times to land the Shuttle at KSC. In addition, nomograms have been developed to help forecasters make cloud cover forecasts for End of Mission (EOM) and Return to Launch Site (RTLS) at KSC. Results of categorizing this data by month, season, time of day, and surface and upper-air wind direction are presented.

Atchison, M. Kevin↗

Influence of Nucleation Mechanisms on the Radiative Properties of Deep Convective Clouds and Subvisible Cirrus in CRYSTAL/FACE

During the past few years we have conducted work on several different topics, as reflected by our publications. As one of the Co-Project scientists for The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL FACE) we worked to help design the mission and then conduct it in the field. Another major activity during the past two years has been to pull together various groups to formulate plans for follow on missions to CRYSTAL FACE. We organized a workshop at the University of Colorado during the summer of 2003 to assess the best locations for future missions. Working with a group of about 10 scientists from around the country we prepared a science-planning document (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC(sup 4)) that outlined the rationale, locations, strategy to accomplish the goals, and possible payloads for a set of three tropical missions. We also prepared background materials for various NRAs being prepared at NASA Headquarters for missions in Costa Rica, Darwin and Guam. In conjunction with the group at NASA Ames we have helped build a new numerical model for deep convection and have applied that model to simulate the CRYSTAL data. Our goal in particular has been to better understand how convection distributes water vapor isotopes. CRYSTAL observations of water isotopes are very different from those suggested by previous workers who assumed the isotopes would obey Rayleigh fractionation. The water isotope study has several implications. First it is a check on the realism of the deep convection model. Second, the isotopes are a measure of the precipitation removal in the atmosphere. Hence they provide a constraint on a parameter that is difficult to otherwise measure. Finally it has been suggested that isotopes may be the key to unraveling the water transport into the stratosphere and upper troposphere. Such transport is critical both for the radiation balance and for stratospheric chemistry. Ours is the first model that is able to treat this transport. Our initial results have just been submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett (Smith et al., 2005). Essentially we are able to explain the vertical profiles of isotopes in the tropical tropopause transition layer. We are also able to account for stratospheric humidity and isotope abundances with this model. We have also been heavily involved in trying to improve our understanding of nitric acid condensation on ice. Gao et al (2004) have shown that water supersaturations above ice occur when the atmosphere is supersaturated with respect to nitric acid trihydrate. As one of the co-authors of that work, we suggested the mechanism that may explain why this is occurring. Essentially, ice does not like to grow near unit supersaturation, but does so because the water molecules can find sites on the ice surface to attach themselves to before they fly off the ice surface. This phenomena was well known in the 1960s when it was a source of debate about whether condensation and evaporation coefficients for ice would be the same. Evaporation does not require any molecular orientation, while condensation does, so it was possible that the coefficients would differ. They don't differ because the water molecules rapidly move across the surface and find places to attach. Nitric acid may be occupying these preferred sites and therefore the water molecules can't find a desirable place to attach. We anticipate that this research will be the subject of laboratory work during the coming few years. Another possibility that has been suggested is that cubic ice is forming in clouds. We have measured the vapor pressure of cubic ice, and plan to publish that result in the next few months. We have also been working on additional aspects of the condensation of nitric acid on ice. With Y. Kondo we studied the condensation of NOy on ice using the SOLVE data. Gamblin et al. have continued this work. The CRYSTAL NOy and HNO, groups have shown th their data can be fit using standard Langmuir isotherms as suggested in some, but not all, laboratory studies. We have found in the SOLVE data set that this is not the case. Moreover some laboratory studies show there are important kinetic effects that may be occurring in the atmosphere limiting the transfer of nitric acid to the ice. The SOLVE data seem consistent with these studies. We are currently re-analyzing the CRYSTAL data to look for these kinetic effects. There are a number of implications of these studies. One of the more interesting is that the nitric acid coating on ice can be used as a cloud clock to determine how long the cloud parcel has been in existence. We have also been involved with several laboratory studies. We have worked to improve the database on ice optical constants, which are critical for remote sensing. We have also studied the ways in which ice nucleates on clays. We suspect now that the standard theories used for depositional ice nucleation are completely incorrect. Further work will be needed to develop a new theory.

Toon, Owen B.↗

The Ceres S'COOL Project: Two Years After First Launch

The idea for the Students' Cloud Observations OnLine (S'COOL) project as an outreach and education element of NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) research program was conceived in late 1996 during a conversation with a middle school science teacher. S'COOL was implemented in a series of increasingly developed test phases during 1997, as the launch of the first CERES instrument approached. Even before launch, the reception of the project in schools far exceeded expectations. After several delays the first instrument, on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft, was launched on Thanksgiving Day, 1997. Since the first launch, development and expansion of the project has continued with expectations for launch of Terra carrying two CERES instruments into a polar orbit in mid-1998. That launch is now expected in fall 1999, and will finally provide overflight of all participating schools. In two years, the project has grown from three initial test participants to over 300 schools now participating in 23 countries on five continents. Students from first grade through university level are involved (most participants are ages 10-15). S'COOL is also being used by a few education professors to teach about Internet use in the classroom. The project continues to grow through word of mouth, presentations at teacher workshops, and now increasingly through teachers who find it during web searches. Participants in the S'COOL project are part of the CERES validation team. They provide ground truth measurements at the time the CERES instrument flies over their location, to be compared with the retrieval of cloud properties by remote sensing from CERES. Quantities reported include cloud type, height, fraction and opacity; information on contrails; surface temperature, pressure and relative humidity; and ground cover (snow/ice, wet, dry; leaves on trees or not). in addition, a comment field on the report form serves as a catch-all for all kinds of interesting observations, including similes written by some classes to describe more exactly the clouds they see. Several not totally unexpected complications with the CERES instrument and processing software mean that the CERES team has not yet reached the point of computing the cloud properties, a high level product at the end of the processing stream. However, progress is being made and we anticipate that we will soon be populating the S'COOL database with a large number of satellite retrievals for comparison with the students' observations. Some satellite retrievals from the initial test phases are already available in the database, The CERES instruments are planned to operate at least through 2006, and the S'COOL Project is planned to continue at least that long, providing motivational learning to as many students as possible. This paper reports on the first several years of the S'CCOL project. It further reports on some of the noteworthy observations and comparisons made possible by this project. Schools are often located in interesting places, in terms of the clouds found there and the satellite's ability to observe these clouds. The paper also reports on the learning opportunities delivered by this project, and on new questions about the planet and its climate which arise in the students' minds as a result of their active participation.

Chambers, Lin H.↗

Bridging current indirect and future direct estimates of convective mass flux toward quantifying the role of convective cores on anvil area time tendencies

Anvil cloud spatial extent is strongly driven by convective mass flux. However, the lack of convective mass flux observations precludes global analyses of the functional relationship between anvil cloud area growth tendencies and convective areal coverage and vertical mass flux. Partly informed by analyses of a hierarchy of WRF mesoscale convective system (MCS) simulations, in this presentation, we discuss new work on estimating convective mass flux by way of an approach that casts the problem of quantifying convective mass flux into terms related to diabatic heating vertical structure, convective area and tropospheric stability. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach at the MCS spatial scale via development of a simple, robust model that analytically connects system-scale convective mass flux and anvil cloud area growth rates. We show that the model predicts anvil area size changes in agreement with those observed in a global convective system tracking database (TOOCAN). An additional advantage of this approach for estimating convective mass flux is that it bridges future satellite mission plans for directly observing convective mass flux (e.g., AOS) with longer-record observations made by TRMM, GPM and satellite sounder mission data (the latter used for estimating stability) that, when combined, can be used for inferring convective mass fluxes at the MCS spatial scale spanning slowly changing, diverse environments. An evaluation and bridging of both direct and indirect approaches supports convective process analyses varying over longer time periods in this “era of convection.”

convective mass flux↗

Closed Loop Geothermal Working Group: GeoCLUSTER App, Subsurface Simulation Results, and Publications

To better understand the heat production, electricity generation performance, and economic viability of closed-loop geothermal systems in hot-dry rock, the Closed-Loop Geothermal Working Group -- a consortium of several national labs and academic institutions has tabulated time-dependent numerical solutions and levelized cost results of two popular closed-loop heat exchanger designs (u-tube and co-axial). The heat exchanger designs were evaluated for two working fluids (water and supercritical CO2) while varying seven continuous independent parameters of interest (mass flow rate, vertical depth, horizontal extent, borehole diameter, formation gradient, formation conductivity, and injection temperature). The corresponding numerical solutions (approximately 1.2 million per heat exchanger design) are stored as multi-dimensional HDF5 datasets and can be queried at off-grid points using multi-dimensional linear interpolation. A Python script was developed to query this database and estimate time-dependent electricity generation using an organic Rankine cycle (for water) or direct turbine expansion cycle (for CO2) and perform a cost assessment. This document aims to give an overview of the HDF5 database file and highlights how to read, visualize, and query quantities of interest (e.g., levelized cost of electricity, levelized cost of heat) using the accompanying Python scripts. Details regarding the capital, operation, and maintenance and levelized cost calculation using the techno-economic analysis script are provided. This data submission will contain results from the Closed Loop Geothermal Working Group study that are within the public domain, including publications, simulation results, databases, and computer codes. GeoCLUSTER is a Python-based web application created using Dash, an open-source framework built on top of Flask that streamlines the building of data dashboards. GeoCLUSTER provides users with a collection of interactive methods for streamlining the exploration and visualization of an HDF5 dataset. The GeoCluster app and database are contained in the compressed file geocluster_vx.zip, where the "x" refers to the version number. For example, geocluster_v1.zip is Version 1 of the app. This zip file also contains installation instructions. **To use the GeoCLUSTER app in the cloud, click the link to "GeoCLUSTER on AWS" in the Resources section below. To use the GeoCLUSTER app locally, download the geocluster_vx.zip to your computer and uncompress this file. When uncompressed this file comprises two directories and the geocluster_installation.pdf file. The geo-data app contains the HDF5 database in condensed format, and the GeoCLUSTER directory contains the GeoCLUSTER app in the subdirectory dash_app, as app.py. The geocluster_installation.pdf file provides instructions on installing Python, the needed Python modules, and then executing the app.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Validating MODIS Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieved from Color Ratio Algorithm Using Direct Measurements Made by NASA's Airborne AATS and 4STAR Sensors

We present the validation analysis of above-cloud aerosol optical depth (ACAOD) retrieved from the color ratio method applied to MODIS cloudy-sky reflectance measurements using the limited direct measurements made by NASAs airborne Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS) and Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) sensors. A thorough search of the airborne database collection revealed a total of five significant events in which an airborne sun photometer, coincident with the MODIS overpass, observed partially absorbing aerosols emitted from agricultural biomass burning, dust, and wildfires over a low-level cloud deck during SAFARI-2000, ACE-ASIA 2001, and SEAC4RS 2013 campaigns, respectively. The co-located satellite-airborne match ups revealed a good agreement (root-mean-square difference less than 0.1), with most match ups falling within the estimated uncertainties associated with the MODIS retrievals (about -10 to +50 ). The co-retrieved cloud optical depth was comparable to that of the MODIS operational cloud product for ACE-ASIA and SEAC4RS, however, higher by 30-50% for the SAFARI-2000 case study. The reason for this discrepancy could be attributed to the distinct aerosol optical properties encountered during respective campaigns. A brief discussion on the sources of uncertainty in the satellite-based ACAOD retrieval and co-location procedure is presented. Field experiments dedicated to making direct measurements of aerosols above cloud are needed for the extensive validation of satellite based retrievals.

airborne sun photometer↗

Privacy Preserving Federated Learning for Advanced Scientific Ecosystems

We present a framework to provide privacy preserving (PP) federating learning (FL) across multiple computational and experimental facilities. This work joins the compute capabilities of National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory Research Cloud (ORC) with simulated experimental data, such as those produced at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory and Spallation Neutron Source (SNS). We describe the software infrastructure developed to provide privacy for computational and experimental networks. We developed algorithmic privacy across the federated system by embedding database security, computation, and communication into the federation architecture, utilizing scientific tools developed by the experimental community.

Archibald, Rick [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000245389780)↗

Bridging Current Indirect and Future Direct Estimates of Convective Mass Flux Toward Quantifying the Role of Convective Cores on Anvil Area Time Tendencies

Anvil cloud spatial extent is strongly driven by convective mass flux. However, the lack of convective mass flux observations precludes global analyses of the functional relationship between anvil cloud area growth tendencies and convective areal coverage and vertical mass flux. Partly informed by analyses of a hierarchy of WRF mesoscale convective system (MCS) simulations, in this presentation, we discuss new work on estimating convective mass flux by way of an approach that casts the problem of quantifying convective mass flux into terms related to diabatic heating vertical structure, convective area and tropospheric stability. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach at the MCS spatial scale via development of a simple, robust model that analytically connects system-scale convective mass flux and anvil cloud area growth rates. We show that the model predicts anvil area size changes in agreement with those observed in a global convective system tracking database (TOOCAN). An additional advantage of this approach for estimating convective mass flux is that it bridges future satellite mission plans for directly observing convective mass flux (e.g., AOS) with longer-record observations made by TRMM, GPM and satellite sounder mission data (the latter used for estimating stability) that, when combined, can be used for inferring convective mass fluxes at the MCS spatial scale spanning slowly changing, diverse environments. An evaluation and bridging of both direct and indirect approaches supports convective process analyses varying over longer time periods in this “era of convection.”

convective mass flux↗

Assimilation of satellite microwave observations over the rainbands of tropical cyclones

A novel Bayesian Monte Carlo integration (BMCI) technique was developed to retrieve geophysical variables from satellite microwave radiometer data in the presence of tropical cyclones. The BMCI technique includes three steps: generating a stochastic database, simulating satellite brightness temperatures using a radiative transfer model, and retrieving geophysical variables such as profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and cloud liquid and ice water content from real observations. The technique also provides uncertainty estimates for each retrieval and can output the error covariance matrix of selected parameters. The measurements from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) on board Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) were used as input. A new technique was developed to correct the ATMS and GMI observations for the beam-filling effect, which is due to small-scale variability of precipitation and clouds when compared with the instrument footprint and also the nonlinear relation between the brightness temperature and precipitation. In addition, the assimilation of the BMCI retrievals into the NASA GEOS model is discussed for Hurricane Maria. The results show that assimilating the BMCI retrievals can influence the dynamical features of the cyclone, including a stronger warm core, a symmetric eye, and vertically aligned wind columns. Two possible factors that may limit the impact of the BMCI retrievals include 1) the resolution of the model (about 25 km), which was too coarse to show the potential of the BMCI data in improving the representation of tropical storms in the model forecast, and 2) the data assimilation system not being able to consider vertically correlated observation errors.

Isaac Moradi↗

Evaluating and Exploring Extreme Precipitation in CHIRPS3, CHIMES, and the Climate Hazards Station Database

Between 2015 and 2019, the impacts and losses associated with droughts, floods, and hurricanes surged through the interaction of increasing exposure and more extreme weather and climate (Funk 2021). In 2020, the Aon-Benfield Reinsurance Company reported that cyclones, floods, and droughts resulted in $165 billion (USD) in losses. For 2020, EM-DAT lists 363 flood, landslide, storm, and drought events impacting some 98 million people. As hazards mount, models indicate more variable precipitation, and observations indicate increasing extremes in humid regions, yet the small number of available gauge observations is declining. In this talk we briefly introduce two new resources: version 3 of the 1981-near present Climate Hazards center Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS3) archive, and the 2000-near present Climate Hazards IMErg with Stations archive (CHIMES). The satellite-only CHIRP3 and CHIME components are based, respectively, on geostationary thermal infrared Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) values and the NASA GPM IMERGlate product. These archives benefit from thousands of station observations. In addition to standard global sources, the Climate Hazards station database includes about 5,000 additional stations in humid tropical and sub-tropical areas associated with likely increases in extreme rainfall. While effectively monitoring extreme precipitation is important to humanitarian agencies like FEWS NET, and to hydrologic modeling applications (a, b), evaluations of the widely used CHIRPS2 product indicate a propensity to underestimate extremes. Here, we explain the source of this problem. Then, focusing on pentad totals in 12 well-gauged regions, we use the high-quality gauge-based REGEN dataset to show that CHIRP3 and CHIME perform substantially better than CHIRP2. We examine trends in extremes in these validation regions, comparing REGEN results with values from the satellite-only CHIRP2, CHIRP3, CHIME and the gauge-enhanced CHIRP2, CHIRP3, CHIME. Trends in dry and humid regions are contrasted and compared. We conclude with global evaluations of the pentad CHIRP3, CHIRPS3, CHIME, CHIMES, and Climate Hazards station database products. How does the performance of the shorter period of record CHIME compare with CHIRP3? We anticipate that the sophisticated microwave-based IMERGlate inputs into CHIME will perform better. Where do we see the largest increases in extremes in these products? How well might CHIRPS3 and CHIMES perform in the context of humanitarian assistance efforts?

C Funk↗

The Mid-Infrared Absorption Spectra of Neutral PAHs in Dense Interstellar Clouds

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are common throughout the universe and are expected to be present in dense interstellar clouds. In these environments, some P.4Hs may be present in the gas phase, but most should be frozen into ice mantles or adsorbed onto dust grains and their spectral features are expected to be seen in absorption. Here we extend our previous work on the infrared spectral properties of the small PAH naphthalene (C10H8) in several media to include the full mid-infrared laboratory spectra of 11 other PAHs and related aromatic species frozen in H2O ices. These include the molecules 1,2-dihydronaphthalene, anthracene, 9,1O-dihydroanthracene, phenanthrene, pyrene, benzo[e]pyrene, perylene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, pentacene, benzo[ghi]perylene, and coronene. These results demonstrate that PAHs and related molecules, as a class, show the same spectral behaviors as naphthalene when incorporated into H2O-rich matrices. When compared to the spectra of these same molecules isolated in inert matrices (e.g., Ar or N2), the absorption bands produced when they are frozen in H2O matrices are broader (factors of 3-10), show small position shifts in either direction (usually < 4/cm, always < 10/cm), and show variable changes in relative band strengths (typically factors of 1-3). There is no evidence of systematic increases or decreases in the absolute strengths of the bands of these molecules when they are incorporated in H2O matrices. In H2O-rich ices, their absorption bands are relatively insensitive to concentration over the range of 10 < H2O/PAH < 200): The absorption bands of these molecules are also insensitive to temperature over the 10 K < T < 125 K range, although the spectra can show dramatic changes as the ices are warmed through the temperature range in which amorphous H2O ice converts to its cubic and hexagonal crystalline forms (T > 125 Kj. Given the small observed band shifts cause by H2O, the current database of spectra from Ar matrix-isolated neutral PAHs and related molecules should be useful for the search for these species in dense clouds on the basis of observed absorption band positions. Furthermore, these data permit determination of column densities to better than a factor of 3 for PAHs in dense clouds. Column density determination of detected aromatics to better than a factor of 3 will, however, require good knowledge about the nature of the matrix in which the PAH is embedded and laboratory studies of relevant samples.

Bernstein, M. P.↗

A Well-Calibrated Ocean Algorithm for Special Sensor Microwave/Imager

I describe an algorithm for retrieving geophysical parameters over the ocean from special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) observations. This algorithm is based on a model for the brightness temperature T(sub B) of the ocean and intervening atmosphere. The retrieved parameters are the near-surface wind speed W, the columnar water vapor V, the columnar cloud liquid water L, and the line-of-sight wind W(sub LS). I restrict my analysis to ocean scenes free of rain, and when the algorithm detects rain, the retrievals are discarded. The model and algorithm are precisely calibrated using a very large in situ database containing 37,650 SSM/I overpasses of buoys and 35,108 overpasses of radiosonde sites. A detailed error analysis indicates that the T(sub B) model rms accuracy is between 0.5 and 1 K and that the rms retrieval accuracies for wind, vapor, and cloud are 0.9 m/s, 1.2 mm, and 0.025 mm, respectively. The error in specifying the cloud temperature will introduce an additional 10% error in the cloud water retrieval. The spatial resolution for these accuracies is 50 km. The systematic errors in the retrievals are smaller than the rms errors, being about 0.3 m/s, 0.6 mm, and 0.005 mm for W, V, and L, respectively. The one exception is the systematic error in wind speed of -1.0 m/s that occurs for observations within +/-20 deg of upwind. The inclusion of the line-of-sight wind W(sub LS) in the retrieval significantly reduces the error in wind speed due to wind direction variations. The wind error for upwind observations is reduced from -3.0 to -1.0 m/s. Finally, I find a small signal in the 19-GHz, horizontal polarization (h(sub pol) T(sub B) residual DeltaT(sub BH) that is related to the effective air pressure of the water vapor profile. This information may be of some use in specifying the vertical distribution of water vapor.

Wentz, Frank J.↗