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Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗

Reflected fluxes for broken clouds over a Lambertian surface

Reflected fluxes are calculated for broken cloudiness (i.e., nonplane parallel) as a function of cloud cover, cloud optical depth, solar zenith angle and surface albedo. These calculations extend previous results for broken cloud reflected fluxes over a black surface. The present study demonstrates that not only radiances but also radiative fluxes over high albedo surfaces may be decreased by the presence of broken cloudiness. Conventional wisdom states that cloud radiances (brightnesses) are always greater than the background. While most cloud retrieval schemes are built around this assumption, it is incorrect for clouds over high albedo surfaces such as found in polar regions. However, the most startling and counterintuitive conclusion of this study is that nonabsorbing finite clouds over a highly reflecting surface will decrease the system albedo. As a result, surface absorption is increased, the result of multiple scattering between surface and cloud layer, controlled by cloud morphology and cloud optical thickness. A simple parameterization of the effects of cloud contamination upon retrieved albedo is given in terms of solar zenith angle, cloud optical depth, surface albedo, cloud cover, and plane-parallel cloud albedo. In this way, the effects of broken cloudiness are modeled in terms of easily computed plane-parallel values.

Welch, Ronald M.↗

Influence of the Surface and Cloud Nonuniformities in the Solar Energy Fluxes in the Arctic

Solar energy fluxes reaching the surface and absorbed by it are basic components of the energy balance of the Arctic. They depend mainly on the solar zenith angle, a state of the atmosphere, especially the cloudiness, and the surface albedo. However, they can also be modified by variabilities in the surface albedo and cloud optical thickness. The surface of the Arctic can be highly nonuniform. The surface of the Arctic Ocean, which covers the huge part of the Arctic can be view as a mosaic of sea water, sea ice, snow and, in the melting period, melting ponds. In our paper, results are presented of Monte Carlo simulations of the expected influence of nonuniform cloud structure and nonuniform surface albedo on radiative fluxes at the Arctic surface. In particular, the plane parallel biases in the surface absorptance and atmospheric transmittance are studied. The bias is defined as the difference between the real absorptance or transmittance (i.e. nonuniform conditions) averaged over a given area, and the uniform or plane parallel case with the same mean cloud optical thickness and the same mean surface albedo. The dependence of the biases is analysed with respect to the following: domain averaged values of the cloud optical thickness and surface albedo, scales of their spatial variabilities, correlation between cloud optical thickness and cloud albedo variabilities, cloud height, and the solar zenith angle. Ranges of means and standard deviations of the input parameters typical of Arctic conditions are obtained from the SHEBA experiment.

Rozwadowska, A.↗

How Can AERONET Help with Monitoring Clouds?

When conditions are inappropriate to make AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) measurements for aerosol studies, new measurements related to cloud physics can be made instead. As such, several AERONET CIMEL sunphotometers have been equipped with a new "cloud mode." This mode allows the CIMELs to make measurements of zenith radiance when the Sun in blocked by clouds. When in cloud mode, a CIMEL points straight up every 10-15 minutes and takes 10 measurements over a 9 second time interval at four wavelengths: 440,670,870, and 1020 nm. For cloudy conditions above green vegetation, the spectral contrast in surface albedo dominates over Rayleigh and aerosol effects. We have developed a new method for retrieving cloud optical depth, even for broken clouds, that uses data from the 670 (and/or 440) and 870 nm channels. In addition to cloud optical depth, the method also infers a "radiatively effective" cloud fraction. The results of the retrievals at the ARM Central Facility in Oklahoma are compared with the ones from Microwave Radiometer (MWR) and Multi-Filter Rotating Shadowband Radiometers (MFRSR).

Marshak, A.↗

Raman Lidar Measurements of Water Vapor and Cirrus Clouds During The Passage of Hurricane Bonnie

The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) was stationed on Andros Island in the Bahamas during August - September, 1998 as a part of the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) which focussed on hurricane development and tracking. During the period August 21 - 24, hurricane Bonnie passed near Andros Island and influenced the water vapor and cirrus cloud measurements acquired by the SRL. Two drying signatures related to the hurricane were recorded by the SRL and other sensors. Cirrus cloud optical depths (at 351 nm) were also measured during this period. Optical depth values ranged from less than 0.01 to 1.5. The influence of multiple scattering on these optical depth measurements was studied. A correction technique is presented which minimizes the influences of multiple scattering and derives information about cirrus cloud optical and physical properties. The UV/IR cirrus cloud optical depth ratio was estimated based on a comparison of lidar and GOES measurements. Simple radiative transfer model calculations compared with GOES satellite brightness temperatures indicate that satellite radiances are significantly affected by the presence of cirrus clouds if IR optical depths are approximately 0.005 or greater. Using the ISCCP detection threshold for cirrus clouds on the GOES data presented here, a high bias of up to 40% in the GOES precipitable water retrieval was found.

Whiteman, D. N.↗

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Remote Sensing of Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Clouds During TC (sup 4): Results from MAS, MASTER, MODIS, and MISR

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Airborne Simulator (MAS) and MODIS/Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Airborne Simulator (MASTER) were used to obtain measurements of the bidirectional reflectance and brightness temperature of clouds at 50 discrete wavelengths between 0.47 and 14.2 microns (12.9 microns for MASTER). These observations were obtained from the NASA ER-2 aircraft as part of the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment conducted over Central America and surrounding Pacific and Atlantic Oceans between 17 July and 8 August 2007. Multispectral images in eleven distinct bands were used to derive a confidence in clear sky (or alternatively the probability Of cloud) over land and ocean ecosystems. Based on the results of individual tests run as part of the cloud mask, an algorithm was developed to estimate the phase of the clouds (liquid water, ice, or undetermined phase). The cloud optical thickness and effective radius were derived for both liquid water and ice clouds that were detected during each flight, using a nearly identical algorithm to that implemented operationally to process MODIS Cloud data from the Aqua and Terra satellites (Collection 5). This analysis shows that the cloud mask developed for operational use on MODIS, and tested using MAS and MASTER data in TC(sup 4), is quite capable of distinguishing both liquid water and ice clouds during daytime conditions over both land and ocean. The cloud optical thickness and effective radius retrievals use five distinct bands of the MAS (or MASTER), and these results were compared with nearly simultaneous retrievals of marine liquid water clouds from MODIS on the Terra spacecraft. Finally, this MODIS-based algorithm was adapted to Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) data to infer the cloud optical thickness Of liquid water clouds from MISR. Results of this analysis are compared and contrasted.

King, Michael D.↗

Subvisual Cirrus cloud properties derived from a FIRE IFO case study

From the central Wisconsin IFO field at Wausau, the Mobile Polarization Lidar and a surface radiation station from the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory observed two very tenuous cirrus clouds on 21 October 1986. The clouds were present just below the height of the tropopause, between -60 to -70 C. The first cloud was not detected visually, and is classified as subvisual cirrus. The second, a relatively narrow cloud band that was probably the remnants of an aircraft contrail, can be termed zenith-subvisual since, although it was invisible in the zenith direction, it could be discerned when viewed at lower elevation angles and also due to strong solar forward-scattering and corona effects. The observations provide an opportunity to assess the threshold cloud optical thickness associated with cirrus cloud visibility. Ruby lidar backscattered signals were converted to isotropic volume backscatter coefficients by applying the pure-molecular scattering assumption just below the cloud base. The backscattering coefficient due to the cloud is then obtained and expressed in relation to the molecular backscattering coefficient in terms of the scattering ratio R. The linear depolarization ratio for the cloud is computed after removing the essentially parallel-polarized scattering contribution from air molecules. The values are also applied to determine the cloud optical thickness through the use of backscatter-to-extinction ratio, and the concentration of cloud particles using the backscattering gain, and the effective diameter of the particles obtained from the analysis of solar corona photographs. The sizes of the particles generating the corona are related to the angular separations between the centers of the red bands and the sun, yielding diameters of approximately 25 microns. The direct and diffuse components of shortwave radiation fluxes, measured by full hemispheric pyranometers, were used to compute the nadir optical thickness of the total atmosphere.

Sassen, Kenneth↗

Remote Sensing of the Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Clouds during TC4: Results from MAS, MASTER, MODIS, and MISR

The MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and MODIS/ASTER Airborne Simulator (MASTER) were used to obtain measurements of the bidirectional reflectance and brightness temperature of clouds at 50 discrete wavelengths between 0.47 and 14.3 (12.9 m for MASTER). These observations were obtained from the NASA ER-2 aircraft as part of the Tropical Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4) conducted over Central America and surrounding Pacific and Atlantic Oceans between July 17 and August 8, 2007. Multispectral images in eight distinct bands were used to derive a confidence in clear sky (or alternatively the probability of cloud) over land and ocean ecosystems. Based on the results of individual tests run as part of this cloud mask, an algorithm was developed to estimate the phase of the clouds (liquid water, ice, or undetermined phase). Finally, the cloud optical thickness and effective radius were derived for both liquid water and ice clouds that were detected during each flight, using a nearly identical algorithm as that implemented operationally to process MODIS cloud data from the Aqua and Terra satellites (Collection 5). This analysis shows that the cloud mask developed for operational use on MODIS, and tested using MAS and MASTER date in TC4, is quite capable of distinguishing both liquid water and ice clouds during daytime conditions over both land and ocean. The cloud optical thickness and effective radius retrievals used three distinct bands of the MAS (or MASTER), and these results were compared with nearly simultaneous retrievals of MODIS on the Terra spacecraft. Finally, this MODIS-based algorithm was adapted to MISR data to infer the cloud optical thickness of liquid water clouds from MISR. Results of this analysis will be presented and discussed.

King, Michael D.↗

Global Measurements of Optically Thin Ice Clouds Using CALIOP

Optically thin ice clouds have been shown to have a net warming effect on the globe but, because passive instruments are not sensitive to optically thin clouds, the occurrence frequency of this class of clouds is greatly underestimated in historical passive sensor cloud climatology. One major strength of CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization), onboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) spacecraft, is its ability to detect these thin clouds, thus filling an important missing piece in the historical data record. This poster examines the full mission of CALIPSO Level 2 data, focusing on those CALIOP retrievals identified as thin ice clouds according to the definition shown to the right. Using this definition, thin ice clouds are identified and counted globally and vertically for each season. By examining the spatial and seasonal distributions of these thin clouds we hope to gain a better understanding these thin ice clouds and how their global distribution has changed over the mission. This poster showcases when and where CALIOP detects thin ice clouds and examines a case study of the eastern pacific and the effects seen from the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Ryan, R.↗

Shortwave Broadband Irradiance Computations Using Cloud Properties Combined from CALIPSO, CloudSat, and MODIS

In this study, cloud properties measured from the CALIPSO, CloudSat, and MODIS (CCM) are used for top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave (SW) broadband (BB) irradiance computations. The CALIPSO and CloudSat active sensors provide detailed cloud vertical profiles, but these occasionally miss parts of the cloud columns due to the full attenuation of sensor signals, surface clutter, or insensitivity to a certain range of cloud particle sizes. As a result, the CCM-merged cloud extinction coefficient profiles can be underestimated. Therefore, we compare the column-integrated visible scaled cloud optical depth (VSCOD) of the CCM-merged cloud extinction coefficient profile with the MODIS-estimated VSCOD and apply a scaling factor to the CCM-merged cloud extinction profile. The VSCOD is defined as a visible cloud optical depth multiplied by (1¬–asymmetry parameter). The SW irradiances are computed using the scaled CCM-merged cloud extinction coefficient and effective radius profiles. It is shown that the multi-sensor-combined cloud profiles significantly reduce positive TOA SW BB biases, compared to those with MODIS-derived cloud properties only. The improvement is more pronounced for optically thick clouds, where MODIS ice particle effective radius is largely underestimated.

Cloud↗

Analysis of CO Transport from Australia Fires and Its Impact to Ozone, Water Vapor and Clouds Using CrIS Single-Field-of-View Sounder Products and Other Remote Sensing and MERRA-2 Reanalysis Data

Australia’s unprecedented fire disasters at the end of 2019 to early 2020 emitted huge amounts of carbon monoxide (CO) and fire aerosol particles, and the long-range transport of the smoke plumes poses great impact to climate change, such as altering the Antarctic ozone (O3) hole. Spaceborne observations from satellites have been proven successful in monitoring CO from wildfires in the past decade and can be used to examine the associated CO transport. The primary remote sensing data used in this study is the Single Field of View (SFOV) Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP) derived from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on SNPP, a new product that will be generated at NASA and released to the public in a few months. SiFSAP has a high spatial resolution of ~14 km and includes atmospheric profiles of temperature, water vapor, CO, O3, as well as cloud products, and as the SiFSAP algorithm performs both day- and night-time retrievals, it provides an additional observation for night-time in comparison to the day-time-only solar polar satellite instruments such as MOPPIT, OMPS, and TROPOMI. Most recent significant improvements in the quality of this product plus its good spatial resolution (better than most global weather and climate models) enable us to conduct process-oriented analysis of CO transport, and the variation of water vapor, O3 and clouds (optical depth, effective radius and cloud height) within and around the fire plumes. The wind fields from MERRA-2 reanalysis will be used to help characterize the transport. Other remote sensing data, such as CO from AIRS, MOPPIT and TROPOMI, O3 from OMPS and TROPOMI, as well as the UV aerosol index from OMI and OMPS, will be used and compared with SiFSAP sounder products. Cross-validation of CO and O3 from these different sensors with the corresponding MERRA-2 products will also be carried out. Along the plume transport path, some enhancement of O3 and correlation between fire aerosol, cloud optical depth and water vapor have been found but need further investigation. Using the transport of fire plumes over the Southern Pacific Ocean as a unique testbed, this study will demonstrate the trace species monitoring capability of current satellite observations, in particular, for CO and O3, and hopefully, it will provide some insight on the impacts on fire emissions on air quality and climate.

Xiaozhen (Shawn) Xiong↗

Analytical optical scattering in clouds

An analytical optical model for scattering of light due to lightning by clouds of different geometry is being developed. The self-consistent approach and the equivalent medium concept of Twersky was used to treat the case corresponding to outside illumination. Thus, the resulting multiple scattering problem is transformed with the knowledge of the bulk parameters, into scattering by a single obstacle in isolation. Based on the size parameter of a typical water droplet as compared to the incident wave length, the problem for the single scatterer equivalent to the distribution of cloud particles can be solved either by Mie or Rayleigh scattering theory. The super computing code of Wiscombe can be used immediately to produce results that can be compared to the Monte Carlo computer simulation for outside incidence. A fairly reasonable inverse approach using the solution of the outside illumination case was proposed to model analytically the situation for point sources located inside the thick optical cloud. Its mathematical details are still being investigated. When finished, it will provide scientists an enhanced capability to study more realistic clouds. For testing purposes, the direct approach to the inside illumination of clouds by lightning is under consideration. Presently, an analytical solution for the cubic cloud will soon be obtained. For cylindrical or spherical clouds, preliminary results are needed for scattering by bounded obstacles above or below a penetrable surface interface.

Phanord, Dieudonne D.↗

Changes in the Surface Broadband Shortwave Radiation Budget During the 2017 Eclipse

While solar eclipses are known to greatly diminish the visible radiation reaching the surface of the Earth, less is known about the magnitude of the impact. We explore both the observed and modeled levels of change in surface radiation during the eclipse of 2017. We deployed a pyranometer and Pandora spectrometer instrument to Casper, Wyoming, and Columbia, Missouri, to measure surface broadband shortwave (SW) flux and atmospheric properties during the 21 August 2017 solar eclipse event. We performed detailed radiative transfer simulations to understand the role of clouds in spectral and broadband solar radiation transfer in the Earth’s atmosphere for the normal (non-eclipse) spectrum and red-shift solar spectra for eclipse conditions. The theoretical calculations showed that the non-eclipse-to-eclipse surface flux ratio depends strongly on the obscuration of the solar disk and slightly on the cloud optical depth. These findings allowed us to estimate what the surface broadband SW flux would be for hypothetical non-eclipse conditions from observations during the eclipse and further to quantify the impact of the eclipse on the surface broadband SW radiation budget. We found that the eclipse caused local reductions of time-averaged surface flux of about 379 W m−2 (50 %) and 329Wm-2 (46 %) during the ∼3 h course of the eclipse at the Casper and Columbia sites, respectively. We estimated that the Moon’s shadow caused a reduction of approximately 7 %–8% in global average surface broadband SW radiation. The eclipse has a smaller impact on the absolute value of surface flux reduction for cloudy conditions than a clear atmosphere; the impact decreases with the increase in cloud optical depth. However, the relative time-averaged reduction of local surface SW flux during a solar eclipse is approximately 45 %, and it is not sensitive to cloud optical depth. The reduction of global average SW flux relative to climatology is proportional to the non-eclipse and eclipse flux difference in the penumbra area and depends on cloud optical depth in the Moon’s shadow and geolocation due to the change in solar zenith angle. We also discuss the influence of cloud inhomogeneity on the observed SW flux. Our results not only quantify the reduction of the surface solar radiation budget, but also advance the understanding of broadband SW radiative transfer under solar eclipse conditions.

surface radiation↗

Observed Land Impacts on Clouds, Water Vapor, and Rainfall at Continental Scales

How do the continents affect large-scale hydrological cycles? How important can one continent be to the climate system? To address these questions, 4-years of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) global precipitation analysis, were used to assess the land impacts on clouds, rainfall, and water vapor at continental scales. At these scales, the observations illustrate that continents are integrated regions that enhance the seasonality of atmospheric and surface hydrological parameters. Specifically, the continents of Eurasia and North America enhance the seasonality of cloud optical thickness, cirrus fraction, rainfall, and water vapor. Over land, both liquid water and ice cloud effective radii are smaller than over oceans primarily because land has more aerosol particles. In addition, different continents have similar impacts on hydrological variables in terms of seasonality, but differ in magnitude. For example, in winter, North America and Eurasia increase cloud optical thickness to 17.5 and 16, respectively, while in summer, Eurasia has much smaller cloud optical thicknesses than North America. Such different land impacts are determined by each continent s geographical condition, land cover, and land use. These new understandings help further address the land-ocean contrasts on global climate, help validate global climate model simulated land-atmosphere interactions, and help interpret climate change over land.

Jin, Menglin↗

Observed Land Impacts on Clouds, Water Vapor, and Rainfall at Continental Scales

How do the continents affect large-scale hydrological cycles? How important can one continent be to the climate system? To address these questions, five years of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) global precipitation analysis, were used to assess the land impacts on clouds, ~ainfall, and water vapor at continental scales. At these scales, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and continentally averaged analyses illustrate that continents as integrated regions enhance the seasonality of atmospheric and surface hydrological parameters. Specifically, the continents of Eurasia and North America enhance the seasonality of cloud optical thickness, cirrus fraction, rainfall, and water vapor. Over land, both liquid water and ice cloud effective radii are smaller than over oceans, primarily because land has more aerosol particles. In addition, different continents have similar impacts on hydrological variables in terms of seasonality, but differ in magnitude. For example, in winter, North America and Eurasia increase cloud optical thickness to 17.5 and 16, respectively, while in summer, Eurasia has much smaller cloud optical thicknesses than North An1erica. Such different land impacts are determined by each continent's geographical condition, land cover, and land use. These new understandings help further address the land-ocean contrasts on global climate, help validate global climate model simulated land-atmosphere interactions, and shed light on interpreting climate change over land.

Jin, Menglin↗

Effect of Clouds on Optical Imaging of the Space Shuttle During the Ascent Phase: A Statistical Analysis Based on a 3D Model

Clouds are highly effective in obscuring optical images of the Space Shuttle taken during its ascent by ground-based and airborne tracking cameras. Because the imagery is used for quick-look and post-flight engineering analysis, the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) recommended the return-to-flight effort include an upgrade of the imaging system to enable it to obtain at least three useful views of the Shuttle from lift-off to at least solid rocket booster (SRB) separation (NASA 2003). The lifetimes of individual cloud elements capable of obscuring optical views of the Shuttle are typically 20 minutes or less. Therefore, accurately observing and forecasting cloud obscuration over an extended network of cameras poses an unprecedented challenge for the current state of observational and modeling techniques. In addition, even the best numerical simulations based on real observations will never reach "truth." In order to quantify the risk that clouds would obscure optical imagery of the Shuttle, a 3D model to calculate probabilistic risk was developed. The model was used to estimate the ability of a network of optical imaging cameras to obtain at least N simultaneous views of the Shuttle from lift-off to SRB separation in the presence of an idealized, randomized cloud field.

FROM↗

Cloud-Type Mean Cloud Properties and Associated Cloud Radiative Effects in the Tropical “Chimney” Zones Using 20 Years High-Resolution CERES Satellite Data

It has been well known that convection tends to be more intense over land than over ocean and continental convection generally contains wider cores that are protected from entrainment than their oceanic counterparts. How does this difference in convective intensity impact the rest of cloud types and associated cloud radiative effects (CREs)? We select five regions in the tropical “chimney” zones, with two regions over land (Africa and Amazon) and three regions over ocean (eastern and western Pacific, and Atlantic) to understand the differences in the cloud-type mean cloud properties and associated CREs using 20-years high-resolution (2x2 km2) CERES satellite data. The cloud types are based upon the ISCCP classification using the joint cloud-top pressure and cloud optical depth distribution. These five regions are compared to the entire tropics (25°S to 25°N). First, we compare the frequencies of occurrence of cloud types among the regions. Compared to the entire tropics, the “chimney” zones are cloudier, particularly, for cloud types with moderate cloud optical depths in the middle and upper troposphere. Except for the eastern Pacific region, the low-level cloud types are less abundant over land (due to higher boundary layers) and ocean (due to weaker lower-tropospheric subsidence). Over Africa, upper-level clouds are scarcer, due perhaps to weak production of convective anvils related to the drier atmosphere. Second, liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP) are compared among the regions. Compared to the entire tropics, mean LWPs for moderate cloud optical depths are higher for oceanic regions but lower for Africa while they are slightly lower in the lower troposphere but slightly higher in the middle troposphere for Amazon. Not surprisingly, mean IWPs are higher over land than over ocean, which is directly related to the difference in convective intensity. That is, the explanations to this result are the relatively weak convective intensity over the eastern Pacific and the abundance of anvil clouds over the western Pacific. Both reduce the mean IWPs. The CRE results are still being analyzed because the totally-clear grids (1° x 1°) of the CERES data product should be removed before taking a regional mean of clear-sky fluxes, which cause the wrong signs of CREs for a few cloud types.

cloud radiative effects↗