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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10

Space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. Volume 2: SRB water impact Monte Carlo computer program, user's manual

The HD 220 program was created as part of the space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. The model was generated to investigate the damage to SRB components under water impact loads. The random nature of environmental parameters, such as ocean waves and wind conditions, necessitates estimation of the relative frequency of occurrence for these parameters. The nondeterministic nature of component strengths also lends itself to probabilistic simulation. The Monte Carlo technique allows the simultaneous perturbation of multiple independent parameters and provides outputs describing the probability distribution functions of the dependent parameters. This allows the user to determine the required statistics for each output parameter.

Source record↗

Estimated Accuracy of Three Common Trajectory Statistical Methods

Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h and 0.5 0.95 for the decay time of 12 h. The best results of source reconstruction can be expected for the trace substances with a decay time on the order of several days. Although the methods considered in this paper do not guarantee high accuracy they are computationally simple and fast. Using the TSMs in optimum conditions and taking into account the range of uncertainties, one can obtain a first hint on potential source areas.

Kabashnikov, Vitaliy P.↗

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermal stress analysis of a graded zirconia/metal gas path seal system for aircraft gas turbine engines

A ceramic/metallic aircraft gas turbine outer gas path seal designed to enable improved engine performance is studied. Flexible numerical analysis schemes suitable for the determination of transient temperature profiles and thermal stress distributions in the seal are outlined. An estimation of the stresses to which a test seal is subjected during simulated engine deceleration from sea level takeoff to idle conditions is made. Experimental evidence has indicated that the surface layer of the seal is probably subjected to excessive tensile stresses during cyclic temperature loading. This assertion is supported by the analytical results presented. Brief consideration is given to means of mitigating this adverse stressing.

Taylor, C. M.↗

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Source record↗

Simulation of Stochastic Processes by Coupled ODE-PDE

A document discusses the emergence of randomness in solutions of coupled, fully deterministic ODE-PDE (ordinary differential equations-partial differential equations) due to failure of the Lipschitz condition as a new phenomenon. It is possible to exploit the special properties of ordinary differential equations (represented by an arbitrarily chosen, dynamical system) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equations (used to describe the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of joint probability distribution) in order to simulate stochastic processes with the proscribed probability distributions. The important advantage of the proposed approach is that the simulation does not require a random-number generator.

Zak, Michail↗

The numerical evaluation of maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions from partially identified samples

Likelihood equations determined by the two types of samples which are necessary conditions for a maximum-likelihood estimate are considered. These equations, suggest certain successive-approximations iterative procedures for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates. These are generalized steepest ascent (deflected gradient) procedures. It is shown that, with probability 1 as N sub 0 approaches infinity (regardless of the relative sizes of N sub 0 and N sub 1, i=1,...,m), these procedures converge locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimates whenever the step size is between 0 and 2. Furthermore, the value of the step size which yields optimal local convergence rates is bounded from below by a number which always lies between 1 and 2.

Walker, H. F.↗

Parameter adaptive estimation of random processes

This paper is concerned with the parameter adaptive least squares estimation of random processes. The main result is a general representation theorem for the conditional expectation of a random variable on a product probability space. Using this theorem along with the general likelihood ratio expression, the least squares estimate of the process is found in terms of the parameter conditioned estimates. The stochastic differential for the a posteriori probability and the stochastic differential equation for the a posteriori density are found by using simple stochastic calculus on the representations obtained. The results are specialized to the case when the parameter has a discrete distribution. The results can be used to construct an implementable recursive estimator for certain types of nonlinear filtering problems. This is illustrated by some simple examples.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

The latitudinal distribution of magnetic holes in the solar wind

A large number of magnetic holes have been found in the Ulysses data during its cruise in the ecliptic. They are interpreted as convecting structures, probably caused by the mirror instability which exists in high beta plasmas with anisotropic temperatures. The characteristics of the holes reflect the solar wind condition of the region in which the holes are formed, and the point of observation may be far removed from where the instability occurs. A preliminary survey appears to indicate that the number of holes has no significant radial dependence. However, the number of holes does appear to increase with increasing heliographic latitude. Yet the large scale solar wind structures with their compression regions disappeared at approximately 57 deg south latitude. Thus any causal relationship between the holes and large scale solar wind structures is questionable. The temperature anisotropy and high beta required by the mirror instability must be generated by other mechanisms. In order to tie the magnetic holes and the mirror instability to their cause, the evolution of their characteristics with heliocentric distance and latitude needs to be investigated. With the progression of Ulysses around the sun a survey will be conducted to ascertain the characteristics of the magnetic holes as a function of heliographic latitude and heliocentric distance. A comparison of the results with the solar wind conditions may lead to the identification of the magnetic hole generating mechanism(s).

Winterhalter, D.↗

Seyfert galaxy narrow-line regions. II - Kinematic models

A class of kinematic models for the narrow-line regions of active galactic nuclei is presented. The models incorporate continuity-constrained radial flow of emitting material in a bounded, spherical geometry. They are designed to represent the narrow-line regions in as simple a manner as is consistent with current knowledge. The systematic comparison of line profiles arising from the models to the spectra in the forbidden O III lambda 5007 emission line which have been described in Paper I of this series is used as a probe of the line-emitting region kinematics: the model parameter areas of interest are identified and tested for consistency with the data. The results indicate heterogeneous kinematic conditions; the most common pattern is outflow of emitting material in a radially decelerating velocity field in the presence of distributed obscuration. However, some observed line profiles can be fitted by several model profiles from very different kinematic conditions, indicating that the information in a spatially unresolved line profile is insufficient to constrain uniquely the geometry and kinematics of the line-emitting region. Although the specific conclusions are model dependent, a predominantly radial pattern of velocities and a distribution of obscuring material are probably essential features of any successful kinematic model of the narrow-line regions.

Vrtilek, J. M.↗

Some questions of an optimum probability synthesis of dynamic metalworking machine systems

Attempts were made to develop a dynamic metal working machine tool system using probability information on external factors and independent disturbances of the parameters. The problem was optimized in two stages: (1) creation of mathematical models under conditions determined by input influences, and (2) processing the results of calculations obtained on such models. Data were obtained on the patterns of distribution of dynamic quality characteristics of the tool, vibration frequencies and amplitudes, attenuation coefficients, and duration of a transition process. These data were obtained using a digital computer, statistical test methods, or logical possibility trees.

Dobrynin, S. A.↗

Non-Gaussian Analysis of Turbulent Boundary Layer Fluctuating Pressure on Aircraft Skin Panels

The purpose of the study is to investigate the probability density function (PDF) of turbulent boundary layer fluctuating pressures measured on the outer sidewall of a supersonic transport aircraft and to approximate these PDFs by analytical models. Experimental flight results show that the fluctuating pressure PDFs differ from the Gaussian distribution even for standard smooth surface conditions. The PDF tails are wider and longer than those of the Gaussian model. For pressure fluctuations in front of forward-facing step discontinuities, deviations from the Gaussian model are more significant and the PDFs become asymmetrical. There is a certain spatial pattern of the skewness and kurtosis behavior depending on the distance upstream from the step. All characteristics related to non-Gaussian behavior are highly dependent upon the distance from the step and the step height, less dependent on aircraft speed, and not dependent on the fuselage location. A Hermite polynomial transform model and a piecewise-Gaussian model fit the flight data well both for the smooth and stepped conditions. The piecewise-Gaussian approximation can be additionally regarded for convenience in usage after the model is constructed.

Rizzi, Stephen A.↗

Fermi LAT Observations of the Crab Nebula During the Exceptional April 2011 Outburst

The Crab Nebula, formerly thought to be steady in gamma rays, shows unexpected and occasionally dramatic variability in high-energy gamma rays. The Large Area Telescope (LAT) on Fermi recorded several strong outbursts, including dedicated pointed observations of the brightest yet seen, a spectacular flare in April 2011. These observations provide a particularly detailed look at the temporal and spectral characteristics of the nebula during the flare. The LAT data show an additional component in the spectral energy distribution that peaks at a maximum of $375\pm26~\mathrm{MeV}$. In the probable scenario that this component is synchrotron emission, the electrons are accelerated to extreme energies that are difficult to reconcile with the very rapid change in flux and the expectation for acceleration processes and conditions occurring within the pulsar wind nebula. The physical location and mechanism driving the flares remains undetermined despite observations across the spectrum made by a variety of instruments including the Hubble Space Telescope, the Chandra X-ray Observatory, and the Very Large Array. I will present timing and spectral studies of the high-energy gamma-ray data, discuss implications for the origin of the flares, and highlight preparations for the next major flare.

Hays, Elizabeth↗

Acquisition and Early Losses of Rare Gases from the Deep Earth

Direct observations show that the deep Earth contains rare gases of solar composition distinct from those in the atmosphere. We examine the implications of mantle rare gas characteristics on acquisition of rare gases from the solar nebula and subsequent losses due to a large impact. Deep mantle rare gas concentrations and isotopic compositions can be obtained from a model of transport and distribution of mantle rare gases. This model assumes the lower mantle closed early, while the upper mantle is open to subduction from the atmosphere and mass transfer from the lower mantle. Constraints are derived that can be incorporated into models for terrestrial volatile acquisition: (1) Calculated lower-mantle Xe-isotopic ratios indicate that the fraction of radiogenic Xe produced by I-129 and Pu-244 during the first about 10(exp 8) yr was lost, a conclusion also drawn for atmospheric Xe. Thus, either the Earth was made from materials that had lost >99% of rare gases about (0.7-2) x 10(exp 8) yr after the solar system formed, or gases were then lost from the fully formed Earth. (2) Concentrations of 3He and 20Ne in the lower mantle were established after these losses. (3) Neon-isotopic data indicates that mantle Ne has solar composition. The model allows for solar Ar/Ne and Xe/Ne in the lower mantle if a dominant fraction of upper mantle Ar and Xe are subduction-derived. If Earth formed in the presence of the solar nebula, it could have been melted by accretional energy and the blanketing effect of a massive, nebula-derived atmosphere. Gases from this atmosphere would have been sequestered within the molten Earth by dissolution at the surface and downward mixing. It was found that too much Ne would be dissolved in the Earth unless the atmosphere began to escape when the Earth was only partially assembled. Here we consider conditions required to initially dissolve sufficient rare gases to account for the present lower mantle concentrations after subsequent losses at 10(exp 8) yr. It is assumed that equilibration of the atmosphere with a thoroughly molten mantle was rapid, so that initial abundances of gases retained in any mantle layer reflected surface conditions when the layer solidified. For subsequent gas loss of 99.5% and typical solubility coefficients, a total pressure of 100 atm was required for an atmosphere of solar composition. Calculations of the pressure at the base of a primordial atmosphere indicate that this value might be exceeded by an order of magnitude or more for an atmosphere supported by accretional energy. Surface temperatures of about 4000 K would have been produced, probably high enough to melt the deep mantle. Initial distributions of retained rare gases would then be determined by the history of surface pressure and temperature during mantle cooling and solidification, i.e., the coupled cooling of Earth and atmosphere. The Earth's thermal state was determined by its surface temperature and the efficiency of convection in the molten mantle, estimated to be sufficient to maintain an adiabatic gradient. Because the melting curve is steeper than the adiabat, solidification of the mantle proceeded outward from the interior. Incorporation of atmospheric gases in the mantle therefore occurred over a range in surface temperature of a few thousand degrees Kelvin. The thermal state of the atmosphere was controlled by total luminosity of the Earth (energy) released by accreting planetesimals and the cooling Earth), nebular temperature and pressure, and atmospheric opacity. The energy released by accretion declined with time as did nebular pressure. Analytical solutions for an idealized (constant opacity radiative atmosphere show that declining energy sources under constant nebular conditions result in slowly diminishing surface temperature but dramatically increasing surface pressure. For such an atmosphere with declining nebular pressure but constant total luminosity, surface pressure decreases gradually with decreasing temperaure. A decline in accretion luminosity might be compensated by energy released as the mantle cools for about 10(exp 5) year, after which luminosity must decline. The total complement of dissolved rare gases will depend on the particular evolutionary path determined by the declining accretional luminosity, the Earth thermal history, removal of the nebula, and opacity variations of the atmosphere. Models for these coupled evolutionary histories for Earth's acquisition of nebular-derived noble gases are in progress. The later losses required at about 10(exp 8) yr (depleting the interior concentrations of the sequestered solar gases by a factor of > 100) were presumably related to the major impact in which the Moon formed.

Porcelli, D.↗

Investigation of the Stability of Very Flat Spins and Analysis of Effects of Applying various Moments Utilizing the Three Moment Equations of Motion

Based on linearized equations of motion utilizing only the three moment equations and assuming only flat-spin conditions, it appears that contemporary designs (with the moment of inertia about the wing axis I(sub Y) considerably greater than the moment of inertia about the fuselage axis I(sub X) having positive values of C(sub l, sub p) (rolling-moment coefficient due to rolling) or positive values of C(sub l, sub beta) (rolling-moment coefficient due to sideslip) will probably not have a stable spin in the flat-spin region near an angle of attack of 90 deg. If the damping in pitch in flat-spin attitudes is zero, stable flat-spin conditions may not be possible on an airplane having the mass primarily distributed along the wings. The effect of moving ailerons with the spin or the effect of applying a positive pitching moment producing recovery for contemporary fighter designs will be greatest for large negative values of C(sub n, sub beta) (yawing-moment coefficient due to sideslip). In addition, for a certain critical value of positive C(sub n, sub beta), the rolling moment applied by moving ailerons with the spin or the application of a positive pitching moment will have no effect on reducing the spin rate.

Klinar, Walter J.↗

A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Existence, uniqueness and regularity of a time-periodic probability density distribution arising in a sedimentation-diffusion problem

The sedimentation and diffusion of a nonneutrally buoyant Brownian particle in vertical fluid-filled cylinder of finite length which is instantaneously inverted at regular intervals are investigated analytically. A one-dimensional convective-diffusive equation is derived to describe the temporal and spatial evolution of the probability density; a periodicity condition is formulated; the applicability of Fredholm theory is established; and the parameter-space regions are determined within which the existence and uniqueness of solutions are guaranteed. Numerical results for sample problems are presented graphically and briefly characterized.

Nitsche, Ludwig C.↗

Turbulent plane Couette flow using probability distribution functions

A numerical scheme employing a combination of the discrete ordinate method and finite differences is developed for solving the one-dimensional form of Lundgren's (1967) model equation for turbulent plane Couette flow. The approach used requires no a priori assumption about the form of the turbulent distribution function, and the numerical solution is obtained directly from the governing differential equations. Two different types of boundary conditions (zero-gradient and Chapman-Enskog) for the distribution function are evaluated by comparing the numerical results with experimental data. It is found that: (1) the present approach gives convergent and stable results over a wide range of Reynolds numbers; (2) Lundgren's equation yields results that compare well with experimental data for mean velocity and skin friction in the case of simple Couette flow; (3) the zero-gradient boundary condition leads to a logarithmic flow profile; and (4) the Chapman-Enskog boundary condition provides very good agreement with experimental data when applied within the near-wall region.

Srinivasan, R.↗