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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Alternate Methods in Refining the SLS Nozzle Plug Loads

Numerical analysis has shown that the SLS nozzle environmental barrier (nozzle plug) design is inadequate for the prelaunch condition, which consists of two dominant loads: 1) the main engines startup pressure and 2) an environmentally induced pressure. Efforts to reduce load conservatisms included a dynamic analysis which showed a 31% higher safety factor compared to the standard static analysis. The environmental load is typically approached with a deterministic method using the worst possible combinations of pressures and temperatures. An alternate probabilistic approach, utilizing the distributions of pressures and temperatures, resulted in a 54% reduction in the environmental pressure load. A Monte Carlo simulation of environmental load that used five years of historical pressure and temperature data supported the results of the probabilistic analysis, indicating the probabilistic load is reflective of a 3-sigma condition (1 in 370 probability). Utilizing the probabilistic load analysis eliminated excessive conservatisms and will prevent a future overdesign of the nozzle plug. Employing a similar probabilistic approach to other design and analysis activities can result in realistic yet adequately conservative solutions.

Burbank, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2000

Inertial Effects in Suspension Dynamics

The present work analyses the dynamics of a suspension of heavy particles in shear flow. The magnitude of the particle inertia is given by the Stokes number St = m(gamma/6(pi)a, which is the ratio of the viscous relaxation time of a particle tau(sub p) = m=6pi(eta)a to the flow time gamma(sup -1). Here, m is the mass of the particle, a is its size, eta is the viscosity of the suspending fluid and gamma is the shear rate. The ratio of the Stokes number to the Reynolds number, Re = (rho)f(gamma)a(exp 2)/eta, is the density ratio rho(sub p)/rho(sub f). Of interest is to understand the separate roles of particle (St) and fluid (Re) inertia in the dynamics of suspensions. In this study we focus on heavy particles, rho(sub p)/rho(sub f) much greater than 1, for which the Stokes number is finite, but the Reynolds number is sufficiently small for inertial forces in the fluid to be neglected; thus, the fluid motion is governed by the Stokes equations. On the other hand, the probability density governing the statistics of the suspended particles satisfies a Fokker-Planck equation that accounts for both configuration and momentum coordinates, the latter being essential for finite St. The solution of the Fokker-Planck equation is obtained to O(St) via a Chapman-Enskog type-procedure, and the conditional velocity distribution so obtained is used to derive a configuration-space Smoluchowski equation with inertial corrections. The inertial effects are responsible for asymmetry in the relative trajectories of two spheres in shear flow, in contrast to the well known symmetric structure in the absence of inertia. Finite St open trajectories in the plane of shear suffer a downward lateral displacement resulting from the inability of a particle of finite mass to follow the curvature of the zero-Stokes-number pathlines. In addition to the induced asymmetry, the O(St) inertial perturbation dramatically alters the nature of the near-field trajectories. The stable closed orbits (for St = 0) in the plane of shear now spiral in, approaching particle-particle contact in the limit. All trajectories starting from an initial offset of O(St(sup 1/2) or less (which remain open for St = 0) also spiral in. The asymmetry of the trajectories leads to a non-Newtonian rheology and diffusive behavior. The latter because a given particle (moving along a finite St open trajectory) suffers a net displacement in the transverse direction after a single interaction. A sequence of such uncorrelated displacements leads to the particle executing a random walk. The inertial diffusivity tensor is anisotropic on account of differing strengths of interaction in the gradient and vorticity directions. Since the entire region (constituting an in finite area) of closed orbits in the plane of shear spirals onto contact for #finite St, the latter represents a singular surface for the pair-distribution function. The exact form of the pair-distribution function at contact is still, however, indeterminate in the absence of non-hydrodynamic effects. It should also be noted that finite St non-rectilinear flows do not support a spatially uniform number density owing to the cross-streamline inertial migration of particles.

J. F. Brady↗
NASA NTRS1993

Dynamic of Langmuir and Ion-Sound Waves in Type 3 Solar Radio Sources

The evolution of Langmuir and ion-sound waves in type 3 sources is investigated, incorporating linear growth, linear damping, and nonlinear electrostatic decay. Improved estimates are obtained for the wavenumber range of growing waves and the nonlinear coupling coefficient for the decay process. The resulting prediction for the electrostatic decay threshold is consistent with the observed high-field cutoff in the Langmuir field distribution. It is shown that the conditions in the solar wind do not allow a steady state to be attained; rather, bursty linear and nonlinear interactions take place, consistent with the highly inhomogeneous and impulsive waves actually observed. Nonlinear growth is found to be fast enough to saturate the growth of the parent Langmuir waves in the available interaction time. The resulting levels of product Langmuir and ion-sound waves are estimated theoretically and shown to be consistent with in situ ISEE 3 observations of type 3 events at 1 AU. Nonlinear interactions slave the growth and decay of product sound waves to that of the product Langmuir waves. The resulting probability distribution of ion-sound field strengths is predicted to have a flat tail extending to a high-field cutoff. This prediction is consistent with statistics derived here from ISEE 3 observations. Agreement is also found between the frequencies of the observed waves and predictions for the product S waves. The competing processes of nonlinear wave collapse and quasilinear relaxation are discussed, and it is concluded that neither is responsible for the saturation of Langmuir growth. When wave and beam inhomogeneities are accounted for, arguments from quasi-linear relaxation yield an upper bound on the Langmuir fields that is too high to be relevant. Nor are the criteria for direct wave collapse of the beam-driven waves met, consistent with earlier simulation results that imply that this process is not responsible for saturation of the beam instability. Indeed, even if the highest observed Langmuir fields are assumed to he part of a long-wavelength 'condensate' produced via electrostatic decay, they still fall short of the relevant requirements for wave collapse. The most stringent requirement for collapse is that collapsing wave packets not be disrupted by ambient density fluctuations in the solar wind. Fields of several mV m(exp -1) extending over several hundred km would be needed to satisfy this requirement; at 1 AU such fields are rare at best.

Robinson, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Implementing Badhwar-O'Neill Galactic Cosmic Ray Model for the Analysis of Space Radiation Exposure

For the analysis of radiation risks to astronauts and planning exploratory space missions, accurate energy spectrum of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) is necessary. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. A model of the Badhwar‐O'Neill 2011 (BO11) GCR environment, which is represented by GCR deceleration potential theta, has been derived by utilizing all of the GCR measurements from balloons, satellites, and the newer NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). In the BO11 model, the solar modulation level is derived from the mean international sunspot numbers with time‐delay, which has been calibrated with actual flight instrument measurements to produce better GCR flux data fit during solar minima. GCR fluxes provided by the BO11 model were compared with various spacecraft measurements at 1 AU, and further comparisons were made for the tissue equivalent proportional counters measurements at low Earth orbits using the high‐charge and energy transport (HZETRN) code and various GCR models. For the comparison of the absorbed dose and dose equivalent calculations with the measurements by Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) at Gale crater on Mars, the intensities and energies of GCR entering the heliosphere were calculated by using the BO11 model, which accounts for time‐dependent attenuation of the local interstellar spectrum of each element. The BO11 model, which has emphasized for the last 24 solar minima, showed in relatively good agreement with the RAD data for the first 200 sols, but it was resulted in to be less well during near the solar maximum of solar cycle 24 due to subtleties in the changing heliospheric conditions. By performing the error analysis of the BO11 model and the optimization in reducing overall uncertainty, the resultant BO13 model corrects the fit at solar maxima as well as being accurate at solar minima. The BO13 model is implemented to the NASA Space Cancer Risk model for the assessment of radiation risks. Overall cumulative probability distribution of solar modulation parameters represents the percentile rank of the average interplanetary GCR environment, and the probabilistic radiation risks can be assessed for various levels of GCR environment to support mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Optical communication with semiconductor laser diodes

A 25 megabit/sec direct detection optical communication system that used Q=4 PPM signalling was constructed and its performance measured under laboratory conditions. The system used a single-mode AlGaAs laser diode transmitter and low noise silicon avalanche photodiode (APD) photodetector. Comparison of measured performance with the theoretical revealed that modeling the APD output as a Gaussian process under conditions of negligible background radiation and low (less than 10 to the -12 power A) APD bulk leakage currents leads to substantial underestimates of optimal APD gain to use and overestimates of system bit error probability. A procedure is given to numerically compute system performance which uses the more accurate Webb's Approximation of the exact Conradi distribution for the APD ouput signal that does not require excessive amounts of computer time (a few minutes of VAX 8600 CPU time per system operating point). Examples are given which illustrate the breakdown of the Gaussian approximation in assessing system performance. This system achieved a bit error probability of 10 to the -6 power at a received signal energy corresponding to an average of 60 absorbed photons/bit and optimal APD gain of 700.

Davidson, F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Autonomous power expert system advanced development

The autonomous power expert (APEX) system is being developed at Lewis Research Center to function as a fault diagnosis advisor for a space power distribution test bed. APEX is a rule-based system capable of detecting faults and isolating the probable causes. APEX also has a justification facility to provide natural language explanations about conclusions reached during fault isolation. To help maintain the health of the power distribution system, additional capabilities were added to APEX. These capabilities allow detection and isolation of incipient faults and enable the expert system to recommend actions/procedure to correct the suspected fault conditions. New capabilities for incipient fault detection consist of storage and analysis of historical data and new user interface displays. After the cause of a fault is determined, appropriate recommended actions are selected by rule-based inferencing which provides corrective/extended test procedures. Color graphics displays and improved mouse-selectable menus were also added to provide a friendlier user interface. A discussion of APEX in general and a more detailed description of the incipient detection, recommended actions, and user interface developments during the last year are presented.

Quinn, Todd M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

PDF turbulence modeling and DNS

The problem of time discontinuity (or jump condition) in the coalescence/dispersion (C/D) mixing model is addressed in probability density function (pdf). A C/D mixing model continuous in time is introduced. With the continuous mixing model, the process of chemical reaction can be fully coupled with mixing. In the case of homogeneous turbulence decay, the new model predicts a pdf very close to a Gaussian distribution, with finite higher moments also close to that of a Gaussian distribution. Results from the continuous mixing model are compared with both experimental data and numerical results from conventional C/D models. The effect of Coriolis forces on compressible homogeneous turbulence is studied using direct numerical simulation (DNS). The numerical method used in this study is an eight order compact difference scheme. Contrary to the conclusions reached by previous DNS studies on incompressible isotropic turbulence, the present results show that the Coriolis force increases the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, and that anisotropy develops as the Coriolis force increases. The Taylor-Proudman theory does apply since the derivatives in the direction of the rotation axis vanishes rapidly. A closer analysis reveals that the dissipation rate of the incompressible component of the turbulent kinetic energy indeed decreases with a higher rotation rate, consistent with incompressible flow simulations (Bardina), while the dissipation rate of the compressible part increases; the net gain is positive. Inertial waves are observed in the simulation results.

Hsu, A. T.↗
NASA NTRS2019

On the Maximum Expected Electric Field in Electrically Small, Undermoded Enclosures

This paper reports the experimental validation of an improved statistical model for the prediction of maximum expected electric field in electrically small and under-moded enclosures. The aerospace community is interested in application of Hill’s statistical models to design of avionics boxes for shielding effectiveness and for tailoring EMC test requirements for critical applications. However, it is observed that the probability distribution for mean-squared electric field (|E(sub x)|(exp 2)) in an electrically small enclosure differs from the exponential distribution which is widely used in reverberation chamber testing. It is postulated here that the difference is attributable to the under-moded character of the small enclosure. We will define “under-moded” as the condition where a single excitation frequency does not excite enough closely spaced resonant modes to achieve Hill’s assumption of an isotropic (or fully diffuse) plane wave field in the enclosure.

Bremner, P. G.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Gaussian approximation versus nearly exact performance analysis of optical communication systems with PPM signaling and APD receivers

A 25-Mb/s direct-detection optical communication system that used Q = 4 PPM (pulse-position modulation) signaling was constructed and its performance measured under laboratory conditions. The system used a single-mode AlGaAs laser diode (lambda = 834 nm) and low-noise silicon avalanche photodiode (APD). A procedure for numerically computing system performance is given that uses the nearly exact Webb approximation of the true Conradi distribution for the APD output and does not require excessive amounts of computer time. Comparison revealed that modeling the APD ouptut as a Gaussian process under conditions of negligible background radiation and low (less than 10 to the -12 A) APD bulk leakage currents leads to substantial underestimates of optimal APD gain and overestimates of system bit error probability. Examples illustrate the breakdown of the Gaussian approximation in assessing system performance. The measured performance was in excellent agreement with that predicted by the computational procedure. The system achieved a bit error probability of 10 to the -6 at a received signal energy, corresponding to an average of 60 absorbed photons/bit and optimal APD gain of 700.

Davidson, Frederic M.↗
NASA NTRS1960

The Origin of Tektites

Tektites are probably extraterrestrial, rather than the result of heating some terrestrial materials, because they are a chemically homogeneous group with definite peculiarities (high silica, excess of alkaline earths over alkalis, excess of potash over soda, absence of water), and because some of them (the australites) appear to have undergone ablation in flight through the atmosphere. Since comparatively slow heating is required to explain the liquefaction of the tektite material, it is suggested that the tektites arrived along orbits which were nearly parallel to the surface of the earth, and which resulted from the decay of the orbit of a natural satellite. The great meteor procession of February 9, 1913, is an example of such an object. Comparison with the reentry phenomena of the artificial satellite 1957 Beta suggests that the 1913 shower consisted of a single large stone weighing about 400 kilograms, and a few dozen smaller bodies weighing about 40 grams each, formed by ablation from the larger body. It is shown that under the observed conditions considerable liquid flow would be expected in the stone, which would be heated to about 2100 K. Objects falling from such a shower near the perigee point of the orbit would have a considerable distribution along the orbit as a result of slight variations in height or drag coefficient. The distribution in longitude would be made wider by the turning of the earth under the orbit during the time of fall. The ultimate source of the body which produces a tektite shower is probably the moon, which appears, by virtue of its polarization and the phase distribution of the returned light, to contain high-silica materials. It is suggested that the Igast object alleged to have fallen in 1855 is in fact genuine and represents an unmelted portion of the lunar crust.

OKeefe, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Influence of meteorological conditions on aerosol vertical distribution and composition off the northeast American coastline

The size distribution and composition of lower tropospheric aerosols were measured off the northeast American coastline under clear air and disturbed meteorological conditions. Under the clear air conditions observed on 5 August 1982, with air flow from west to east, sulfate-rich stratified layers are the dominant feature of aerosol distribution in the lowest 3000 m of the troposphere. The encroachment of a warm frontal system over the study area on 9 August 1982 resulted in dramatic changes in aerosol distribution and composition prior to any precipitation, probably due to increased vertical mixing and dilution of pollutant aerosols. Chloride becomes the dominant water soluble anion in the lower 3000 m, primarily due to a several fold decrease in sulfate. Although these results are limited to only two sets of measurements, the data indicate the variability which can occur in the tropospheric vertical aerosol distributions at remote locations. A knowledge of the structure and stability of these stratified layers is of particular importance to studies of the ocean-troposphere chemistry problem.

Sebacher, D. I.↗
NASA NTRS2012

On the Ice Nucleation Spectrum

This work presents a novel formulation of the ice nucleation spectrum, i.e. the function relating the ice crystal concentration to cloud formation conditions and aerosol properties. The new formulation is physically-based and explicitly accounts for the dependency of the ice crystal concentration on temperature, supersaturation, cooling rate, and particle size, surface area and composition. This is achieved by introducing the concepts of ice nucleation coefficient (the number of ice germs present in a particle) and nucleation probability dispersion function (the distribution of ice nucleation coefficients within the aerosol population). The new formulation is used to generate ice nucleation parameterizations for the homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets and the heterogeneous deposition ice nucleation on dust and soot ice nuclei. For homogeneous freezing, it was found that by increasing the dispersion in the droplet volume distribution the fraction of supercooled droplets in the population increases. For heterogeneous ice nucleation the new formulation consistently describes singular and stochastic behavior within a single framework. Using a fundamentally stochastic approach, both cooling rate independence and constancy of the ice nucleation fraction over time, features typically associated with singular behavior, were reproduced. Analysis of the temporal dependency of the ice nucleation spectrum suggested that experimental methods that measure the ice nucleation fraction over few seconds would tend to underestimate the ice nuclei concentration. It is shown that inferring the aerosol heterogeneous ice nucleation properties from measurements of the onset supersaturation and temperature may carry significant error as the variability in ice nucleation properties within the aerosol population is not accounted for. This work provides a simple and rigorous ice nucleation framework where theoretical predictions, laboratory measurements and field campaign data can be reconciled, and that is suitable for application in atmospheric modeling studies.

Barahona, D.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Applications of Dynamic Land Surface Information for Passive Microwave Precipitation Retrieval

Accurate, physically based precipitation retrieval over global land surfaces is an important goal of the NASA/JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM). This is a difficult problem for the passive microwave constellation, as the signal over radiometrically warm land surfaces in the microwave frequencies means that the measurements used are indirect and typically require inferring some type of relationship between an observed scattering signal and precipitation at the surface. GPM, with collocated radiometer and dual-frequency radar, is an excellent tool for tackling this problem and improving global retrievals. In the years following the launch of the GPM Core Observatory satellite, physically based passive microwave retrieval of precipitation over land continues to be challenging. Validation efforts suggest that the operational GPM passive microwave algorithm, the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF), tends to overestimate precipitation at the low (<5 mm h−1) end of the distribution over land. In this work, retrieval sensitivities to dynamic surface conditions are explored through enhancement of the algorithm with dynamic, retrieved information from a GPM-derived optimal estimation scheme. The retrieved parameters describing surface and background characteristics replace current static or ancillary GPROF information including emissivity, water vapor, and snow cover. Results show that adding this information decreases probability of false detection by 50% and, most importantly, the enhancements with retrieved parameters move the retrieval away from dependence on ancillary datasets and lead to improved physical consistency.

Sarah Ringerud↗
NASA NTRS1988

Sampling the ancient volatile-rich areas of Mars

Viking images clearly show areas with a high density of fluidized craters that also display a significant number of wrinkle ridges. Fluidized crater ejecta morphology may indicate that the target material was rich in volatiles at the time of the impact. Therefore, these areas are of the utmost importance in deciphering both the Martian tectonic evolution and the amount of subsurface water, at times when more favorable conditions for life to evolve did exist on Mars. Although a large number of extensional features are associated with Tharsis and Elysium geologic activity, the planet-wide distribution of ridges suggests that Mars' tectonic history is far more complex than the Tharsis-dominated scenario indicates. Like on the Moon and Mercury, ridges on Mars were formed under compressive stresses, probably as a result of thrust-fault mechanism, although surface expressions and direct causes vary. Martian ridges are most easily seen on smooth plains of volcanic origin, but the majority of the 16,000 mapped and classified compressive features are located in the old terrains, far beyond Tharsis influence.

Chicarro, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Surveillance and Datalink Communication Performance Analysis for Distributed Separation Assurance System Architectures

This study investigates the effects of two technical enablers: Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) and digital datalink communication, of the Federal Aviation Administration s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under two separation assurance (SA) system architectures: ground-based SA and airborne SA, on overall separation assurance performance. Datalink performance such as successful reception probability in both surveillance and communication messages, and surveillance accuracy are examined in various operational conditions. Required SA performance is evaluated as a function of subsystem performance, using availability, continuity, and integrity metrics to establish overall required separation assurance performance, under normal and off-nominal conditions.

Chung, William W.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Ion cyclotron waves as a possible source of resonant auroral radar echoes

Some auroral radar Doppler data which show the presence of spectra not previously discussed are described. The data were obtained during highly distributed magnetic conditions with a relatively small 50 MHz radar pointed northeast of Ithaca, New York. The data are characterized by strong discrete echoes and display spectral peaks which are even narrower than type 1 and are centered at a considerably smaller Doppler shift. These echoes were present simultaneously with and adjacent in range to the commonly observed auroral spectra, and were probably obtained from a height of about 140 km or higher, well above the center of the auroral electrojet. The results are compared with existing electrojet instability theories, and other plasma instabilities which might be important are discussed. The Doppler shift suggests that the narrow spectra might be caused by ion cyclotron waves generated by field-aligned currents, but the observations cannot be fully explained by any of the theories.

Fejer, B. G.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Adaptive fault-tolerant routing in hypercube multicomputers

A connected hypercube with faulty links and/or nodes is called an injured hypercube. To enable any non-faulty node to communicate with any other non-faulty node, information on component failures has to be made available to non-faulty nodes so as to route messages around the faulty components. A distributed adaptive fault tolerant routing scheme is proposed in which each node is required to know only the condition of its own links. This scheme is shown to be capable of routing messages successfully as long as the number of faulty components is less than n (the dimension of the hypercube), and to route messages via shortest paths with a rather high probability. A second routing scheme based on depth-first search is proposed which works in the presence of an arbitrary number of faulty components; however, the paths chosen by this may not always be the shortest. To guarantee shortest paths, every mode must be given information beyond that on its own links; the additional information to be kept at each node for shortest-path routing is determined. Several examples are given to illustrate the results.

Chen, Ming-Syan↗