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NASA NTRS2022

Trajectory Specification Applied to Terminal Airspace

Despite major efforts to automate air traffic control (ATC), it is still performed by humans today. The complexity and safety-criticality of ATC makes it very difficult to safely automate, but it must be automated to increase airspace capacity (the density of traffic that can be safely managed) and airport throughput (the number of arrivals and departures that an airport can safely handle in a given period of time) beyond what is possible with human controllers. This paper presents the Trajectory Specification (TS) concept, which can help to safely automate ATC. TS is a method of specifying aircraft trajectories such that the position at any given time in flight is restricted to a precisely defined bounding space, removing all ambiguity as to where the flight is allowed to be. The bounding space or volume is determined by tolerances relative to a reference trajectory (position as a function of time). The tolerances are dynamic and are based on the aircraft navigation capabilities and the traffic situation. The tolerances can be a piecewise linear function of time or distance along the route, allowing the tolerances to vary as needed, typically increasing with time for departures and decreasing for arrivals. A Trajectory Specification Language (TSL) is proposed for communicating trajectories from aircraft to ATC as requests and from ATC to aircraft as assignments. The TS concept requires a new generation of airborne Flight Management Systems (FMS) that understand the TSL and can fly the assigned trajectories, but this paper focuses on the ATC functions and the prototype ATC algorithms and software that were developed to test the TS concept. Assuming conformance, TS can guarantee safe separation for an arbitrary length of time even in the event of an ATC system or communication outage. It can help to achieve the high level of safety and reliability needed for ATC automation, and it can also reduce the reliance on ATC backup systems for tactical conflict detection and resolution during normal operation. TS can be applied to any controlled airspace, including enroute, terminal, and urban airspace, but this paper presents algorithms and software for arrival spacing and conflict detection and resolution in the terminal airspace serving a major airport. In a fast-time simulation of a full day of traffic in a major terminal airspace, all conflicts were resolved in near real time, demonstrating the computational feasibility and the preliminary operational feasibility of the TS concept. This paper is a compilation of previous papers, and it adds significant information that was omitted from those papers due to length limitations. It also updates some of the results of those earlier papers due to algorithm refinements and corrections of minor software errors.

air traffic control, trajectory↗

NASA NTRS2009

Collision Avoidance for Airport Traffic Concept Evaluation

An initial Collision Avoidance for Airport Traffic (CAAT) concept for the Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA) was evaluated in a simulation study at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center. CAAT is being designed to enhance surface situation awareness and provide cockpit alerts of potential conflicts during runway, taxi, and low altitude air-to-air operations. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the initial concept for an aircraft-based method of conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) in the TMA focusing on conflict detection algorithms and alerting display concepts. This paper gives an overview of the CD&R concept, simulation study, and test results.

Jones, Denise R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Conducting Safe and Efficient Airport Surface Operations in a NextGen Environment

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) vision proposes many revolutionary operational concepts, such as surface trajectory-based operations (STBO) and technologies, including display of traffic information and movements, airport moving maps (AMM), and proactive alerts of runway incursions and surface traffic conflicts, to deliver an overall increase in system capacity and safety. A piloted simulation study was conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center to evaluate the ability of a flight crew to conduct safe and efficient airport surface operations while utilizing an AMM. Position accuracy of traffic was varied, and the effect of traffic position accuracy on airport conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) capability was measured. Another goal was to evaluate the crew's ability to safely conduct STBO by assessing the impact of providing traffic intent information, CD&R system capability, and the display of STBO guidance to the flight crew on both head-down and head-up displays (HUD). Nominal scenarios and off-nominal conflict scenarios were conducted using 12 airline crews operating in a simulated Memphis International Airport terminal environment. The data suggest that all traffic should be shown on the airport moving map, whether qualified or unqualified, and conflict detection and resolution technologies provide significant safety benefits. Despite the presence of traffic information on the map, collisions or near-collisions still occurred; when indications or alerts were generated in these same scenarios, the incidents were averted. During the STBO testing, the flight crews met their required time-of-arrival at route end within 10 seconds on 98 percent of the trials, well within the acceptable performance bounds of 15 seconds. Traffic intent information was found to be useful in determining the intent of conflicting traffic, with graphical presentation preferred. The CD&R system was only minimally effective during STBO because the prevailing visibility was sufficient for visual detection of conflicting traffic. Overall, the pilots indicated STBO increased general situation awareness but also negatively impacted workload, reduced the ability to watch for other traffic, and increased head-down time.

Jones, Denise R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Air Traffic Management-eXploration Testbed for Urban Air Mobility Research and Development

The presentation will describe the architecture, current capabilities and some future enhancements of the testbed that is being developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to enable benefit, impact, safety and cost assessments for accelerating the deployment of air traffic management concept and technologies in the national airspace system. The testbed will support analysis of operational feasibility of urban air mobility operations, a part of NASA's Air Traffic Management eXploration project, and provide the data needed by regulatory agencies charged with public safety. Introduction of concepts and technologies, especially new concepts and technologies, is difficult and often takes decades because of the inability to assess the operational impact of the interaction between the proposed concept and technology and operationally deployed systems in terms of system-wide safety, traffic flow efficiency, roles and workload of controllers and traffic managers, and impact on airlines and other operators. To overcome these limitations, the testbed is developing infrastructure to enable mathematical modeling, human-in-the-loop evaluations and testing with operational systems in a simulated environment. In addition to the difficulty of establishing communications between geographically distributed systems, downloading/installing software, and management of startup, error-handling and shutdown, a major impediment for conducting simulations and human-in-the-loop testing with operational systems is the tedious manual scenario generation process. Several of these difficulties have been addressed in the current state of the testbed. The testbed can be described in terms of the following elements (1) web-based frontend and backend, (2) Testbed Builder, (3) Data Distribution Service, (4) Component Library, (5) Simulation Management, and (6) Scenario Generation. The web-based frontend and backend enable the user to interact with the testbed for tasks such as composing a simulation, running a simulation and retrieving output data. The Testbed Builder application launched from the web frontend is a graphical user interface for the user to drag-and-drop and connect predefined blocks for composing a simulation/scenario generation task. The Builder writes a set of instructions for Simulation Management based on the links between the blocks and the block properties such as the component (executable) associated with a particular block. Management of the distributed simulation is accomplished by Execution and Component Managers. Execution Manager interprets the instructions provided by the Builder to instruct the Component Managers to download components from the Component Library to specified computers and to start them up. Once started, the components communicate with each other by publishing messages and subscribing to messages that are delivered by the Data Distribution Service. The Scenario Generation capability can be used for creating traffic scenarios for Multi-Aircraft Control System, which has been used extensively at NASA for human-in-the-loop-based concept evaluations. The presentation will provide a testbed enabled example scenario of Multi-Aircraft Control System based simulation in which the urban air mobility pilot using the conflict detection and resolution system would interact with the air traffic controllers for resolving conflicts with other aircraft during terminal area operations.

Testbed↗

NASA NTRS2018

Air Traffic Management-eXploration Testbed for Urban Air Mobility Research and Development

The presentation will describe the architecture, current capabilities and some future enhancements of the testbed that is being developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to enable benefit, impact, safety and cost assessments for accelerating the deployment of air traffic management concept and technologies in the national airspace system. The testbed will support analysis of operational feasibility of urban air mobility operations, a part of NASA's Air Traffic Management eXploration project, and provide the data needed by regulatory agencies charged with public safety. Introduction of concepts and technologies, especially new concepts and technologies, is difficult and often takes decades because of the inability to assess the operational impact of the interaction between the proposed concept and technology and operationally deployed systems in terms of system-wide safety, traffic flow efficiency, roles and workload of controllers and traffic managers, and impact on airlines and other operators. To overcome these limitations, the testbed is developing infrastructure to enable mathematical modeling, human-in-the-loop evaluations and testing with operational systems in a simulated environment. In addition to the difficulty of establishing communications between geographically distributed systems, downloading/installing software, and management of startup, error-handling and shutdown, a major impediment for conducting simulations and human-in-the-loop testing with operational systems is the tedious manual scenario generation process. Several of these difficulties have been addressed in the current state of the testbed. The testbed can be described in terms of the following elements- (1) web-based frontend and backend, (2) Testbed Builder, (3) Data Distribution Service, (4) Component Library, (5) Simulation Management, and (6) Scenario Generation. The web-based frontend and backend enable the user to interact with the testbed for tasks such as composing a simulation, running a simulation and retrieving output data. The Testbed Builder application launched from the web frontend is a graphical user interface for the user to drag-and-drop and connect predefined blocks for composing a simulation/scenario generation task. The Builder writes a set of instructions for Simulation Management based on the links between the blocks and the block properties such as the component (executable) associated with a particular block. Management of the distributed simulation is accomplished by Execution and Component Managers. Execution Manager interprets the instructions provided by the Builder to instruct the Component Managers to download components from the Component Library to specified computers and to start them up. Once started, the components communicate with each other by publishing messages and subscribing to messages that are delivered by the Data Distribution Service. The Scenario Generation capability can be used for creating traffic scenarios for Multi-Aircraft Control System, which has been used extensively at NASA for human-in-the-loop-based concept evaluations. The presentation will provide a testbed enabled example scenario of Multi-Aircraft Control System based simulation in which the urban air mobility pilot using the conflict detection and resolution system would interact with the air traffic controllers for resolving conflicts with other aircraft during terminal area operations.

Simulation↗

NASA NTRS2005

KB3D Reference Manual

This paper is a reference manual describing the implementation of the KB3D conflict detection and resolution algorithm. The algorithm has been implemented in the Java and C++ programming languages. The reference manual gives a short overview of the detection and resolution functions, the structural implementation of the program, inputs and outputs to the program, and describes how the program is used. Inputs to the program can be rectangular coordinates or geodesic coordinates. The reference manual also gives examples of conflict scenarios and the resolution outputs the program produces.

Munoz, Cesar↗

NASA NTRS1982

Power, thermal, and attitude control design interactions of the CCE/AMPTE spacecraft

The power, thermal and attitude control interactions of the CCE spacecraft and the design compromises resulting from these interactions are described. These compromises result from the conflict between the plane change maneuver requirements and the final on station requirements. The resolution of these conflicts to arrive at an acceptable final design, is given and the resulting power, thermal and attitude control systems are described in some detail.

Wingate, C. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Airborne Conflict Management within Confined Airspace in a Piloted Simulation of DAG-TM Autonomous Aircraft Operations

A human-in-the-loop experiment was performed at the NASA Langley Research Center to study the feasibility of Distributed Air/Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) autonomous aircraft operations in highly constrained airspace. The airspace was constrained by a pair of special use airspace (SUA) regions on either side of the pilot s planned route. The available airspace was further varied by changing the separation standard for lateral separation between 3 nm and 5 nm. The pilot had to maneuver through the corridor between the SUA s, avoid other traffic and meet flow management constraints. Traffic flow management (TFM) constraints were imposed as a required time of arrival and crossing altitude at an en route fix. This is a follow-up study to work presented at the 4th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar in December 2001. Nearly all of the pilots were able to meet their TFM constraints while maintaining adequate separation from other traffic. In only 3 out of 59 runs were the pilots unable to meet their required time of arrival. Two loss of separation cases are studied and it is found that the pilots need conflict prevention information presented in a clearer manner. No degradation of performance or safety was seen between the wide and narrow corridors. Although this was not a thorough study of the consequences of reducing the en route lateral separation, nothing was found that would refute the feasibility of reducing the separation requirement from 5 nm to 3 nm. The creation of additional, second-generation conflicts is also investigated. Two resolution methods were offered to the pilots: strategic and tactical. The strategic method is a closed-loop alteration to the Flight Management System (FMS) active route that considers other traffic as well as TFM constraints. The tactical resolutions are short-term resolutions that leave avoiding other traffic conflicts and meeting the TFM constraints to the pilot. Those that made use of the strategic tools avoided additional conflicts, whereas, those making tactical maneuvers often caused additional conflicts. Many of these second-generation conflicts could be avoided by improved conflict prevention tools that clearly present to the pilot which maneuver choices will result in a conflict-free path. These results, together with previously reported studies, continue to support the feasibility of autonomous aircraft operations.

Barmore, Bryan↗

NASA NTRS2014

Safely Conducting Airport Surface Trajectory-Based Operations

A piloted simulation study was conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) to evaluate the ability to safely conduct surface trajectory-based operations (STBO) by assessing the impact of providing traffic intent information, conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) system capability, and the display of STBO guidance to the flight crew on both head-down and head-up displays (HUD). Nominal and off-nominal conflict scenarios were conducted using 12 airline crews operating in a simulated Memphis International Airport terminal environment. The flight crews met their required time-of-arrival at route end within 10 seconds on 98 percent of the trials, well within the acceptable performance bounds of 15 seconds. Traffic intent information was found to be useful in determining the intent of conflict traffic, with graphical presentation preferred. The CD&R system was only minimally effective during STBO because the prevailing visibility was sufficient for visual detection of incurring traffic. Overall, the pilots indicated STBO increased general situation awareness but also negatively impacted workload, reduced the ability to watch for other traffic, and increased head-down time.

Jones, Denise R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Terminal - Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSafe)

The Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (TSAFE) has been previously tested as a conflict detection and resolution tool in the en-route phase of flight. Fast time simulations of a terminal version of this tool called Terminal TSAFE (T-TSAFE) have shown promise over the current conflict detection tools. It has shown to have fewer false alerts (as low as 2 per hour) and better prediction to conflict time than Conflict Alert. The tool will be tested in the simulated terminal area of Los Angeles International Airport, in a Human-in-the-loop experiment to identify controller procedures and information requirements. The simulation will include comparisons of T-TSAFE with NASA's version of Conflict Alert. Also, some other variables such as altitude entry by the controller, which improve T-TSAFE's predictions for conflict detection, will be tested. T-TSAFE integrates features of current conflict detection tools such as Automated Terminal Proximity Alert used to alleviate compression errors in the final approach phase. Based on fast-time simulation analysis, the anticipated benefits of T-TSAFE over Conflict Alert include reduced false/missed alerts and increased time to predicted loss of separation. Other metrics that will be used to evaluate the tool's impact on the controller include controller intervention, workload, and situation awareness.

Verma, Savita Arora↗

NASA NTRS2003

Component Activity Measurements in the Ti-Al-O System by Knudsen Cell Mass Spectrometry

Titanium-aluminides (containing (alpha)2-Ti3Al and gamma-TiAl intermetallic phases) have received continued research focus due to their potential as low-density materials for structural applications at intermediate temperatures. However their application above about 850C is hindered by poor oxidation resistance, characterized by the formation of a non-protective TiO2+Al2O3 scale and an oxygen-enriched subsurface zone. Consistent with this are measured titanium and aluminum activities in "oxygen-free" titanium-aluminides, which indicate Al2O3 is only stable for aluminum concentrations greater then 54 atom percent at 1373 K. However, the inability to form a protective Al2O3 scale is in apparent conflict with phase diagram studies, as experimental isothermal sections of the Ti-Al-O system show gamma-TiAl + alpha2-Ti3Al structures are in equilibrium only with Al2O3. The apparent resolution to this conflict lies in the inclusion of oxygen effects in the thermodynamic measurements

Copland, Evan↗

NASA NTRS2004

Software for Autonomous Spacecraft Maneuvers

The AutoCon computer programs facilitate and accelerate the planning and execution of orbital control maneuvers of spacecraft while analyzing and resolving mission constraints. AutoCon-F is executed aboard spacecraft, enabling the spacecraft to plan and execute maneuvers autonomously; AutoCon-G is designed for use on the ground. The AutoCon programs utilize advanced techniques of artificial intelligence, including those of fuzzy logic and natural-language scripting, to resolve multiple conflicting constraints and automatically plan maneuvers. These programs can be used to satisfy requirements for missions that involve orbits around the Earth, the Moon, or any planet, and are especially useful for missions in which there are requirements for frequent maneuvers and for resolution of complex conflicting constraints. During operations, the software targets new trajectories, places and sizes maneuvers, and controls spacecraft burns. AutoCon-G provides a userfriendly graphical interface, and can be used effectively by an analyst with minimal training. AutoCon-F reduces latency and supports multiple-spacecraft and formation-flying missions. The AutoCon architecture supports distributive processing, which can be critical for formation- control missions. AutoCon is completely object-oriented and can easily be enhanced by adding new objects and events. AutoCon-F was flight demonstrated onboard GSFC's EO-1 spacecraft flying in formation with Landsat-7.

Bristow, John↗

NASA NTRS2013

Human Factors Evaluation of Conflict Detection Tool for Terminal Area

A conflict detection and resolution tool, Terminal-area Tactical Separation-Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE), is being developed to improve the timeliness and accuracy of alerts and reduce the false alert rate observed with the currently deployed technology. The legacy system in use today, Conflict Alert, relies primarily on a dead reckoning algorithm, whereas T-TSAFE uses intent information to augment dead reckoning. In previous experiments, T-TSAFE was found to reduce the rate of false alerts and increase time between the alert to the controller and a loss of separation over the legacy system. In the present study, T-TSAFE was tested under two meteorological conditions, 1) all aircraft operated under instrument flight regimen, and 2) some aircraft operated under mixed operating conditions. The tool was used to visually alert controllers to predicted Losses of separation throughout the terminal airspace, and show compression errors, on final approach. The performance of T-TSAFE on final approach was compared with Automated Terminal Proximity Alert (ATPA), a tool recently deployed by the FAA. Results show that controllers did not report differences in workload or situational awareness between the T-TSAFE and ATPA cones but did prefer T-TSAFE features over ATPA functionality. T-TSAFE will provide one tool that shows alerts in the data blocks and compression errors via cones on the final approach, implementing all tactical conflict detection and alerting via one tool in TRACON airspace.

Verma, Savita Arora↗

NASA NTRS2023

Analysis of Strategic Conflict Management Approaches as Applied to Simulated UAM Operations

This report presents the results of a comparison analysis of candidate Strategic Conflict Management (SCM) strategies as applied to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. The SCM strategies investigated included: no SCM, resource scheduling (RS), resource flow rates (FR), area-based flow rates (AR), and conflict detection and resolution (CR). The study evaluated each strategy against the same 3 levels of flight demand in a representative airspace construct for the Dallas/Fort Worth region. The study also accounted for different levels of uncertainty in operational planning and equivalent levels of trajectory following error. In the analysis, we compared the SCM strategies’ effectiveness in reducing the need for the tactical conflict management layer to act and looked at the metrics of unmitigated losses-of-separation (LOS), flight delays imposed by strategic planning, and throughput of the overall airspace. The study results indicated that the CR strategy was the most effective at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS, even in the presence of trajectory error when uncertainty is accounted for in planning. Thus, if the objective is to reduce the number of actions that the tactical conflict management layer will have to take, in terms of conflicts that may need to be resolved, CR is the strategy to use. The FR strategy was found to be the worst at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS. Thus, it is not very effective at reducing the actions required by a tactical conflict management layer. In the airspace tested, the demand was high enough to produce unacceptable levels of flight delay and reductions of throughput when the SCM strategies were implemented. This was especially evident at the higher levels of trajectory uncertainty and error. The need to account for expected levels of uncertainty becomes more and more important as the demand level increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. This is because the likelihood of flights with LOS increases as the density of operations increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. Accounting for uncertainty in the SCM strategies improves the strategy effectiveness with respect to LOS but increases delays and reduces throughput. Thus, there is a tradeoff between scalability and allowable levels of uncertainty. That is, we can implement an air traffic management construct that allows high levels of uncertainty, but we can expect that same system to have limits on scalability that may be evident even at small demand levels, such as those used in this study. Therefore, the results in this study indicate that an air traffic system should attempt to implement mechanisms appropriate for reducing uncertainty where possible in order to increase the chances for scalability. And this increased level of predictability of operations needs to be balanced with mechanisms for ensuring flexibility when operational conditions and plans need to change, even though those types of changes should be the exception rather than the rule under normal conditions. The study also introduced a trade space that could serve as a mechanism for selecting the appropriate SCM strategy in a trade-off between uncertainty and error, mean flight delay, and the LOS metrics (which this study equates to the potential for tactical conflict management actions). The optimal solution for a given airspace, demand level, and other factors, could likely be a combination of SCM strategies, although this study only compared the use of a single SCM strategy at a time. The CR strategy appeared to have the best opportunity for scalability by limiting the number of potential tactical actions to nearly zero.

Strategic Conflict Management↗

NASA NTRS2002

Use of Traffic Intent Information by Autonomous Aircraft in Constrained Operations

This paper presents findings of a research study designed to provide insight into the issue of intent information exchange in constrained en-route air-traffic operations and its effect on pilot decision-making and flight performance. The piloted simulation was conducted in the Air Traffic Operations Laboratory at the NASA Langley Research Center. Two operational modes for autonomous flight management were compared under conditions of low and high operational complexity (traffic and airspace hazard density). The tactical mode was characterized primarily by the use of traffic state data for conflict detection and resolution and a manual approach to meeting operational constraints. The strategic mode involved the combined use of traffic state and intent information, provided the pilot an additional level of alerting, and allowed an automated approach to meeting operational constraints. Operational constraints applied in the experiment included separation assurance, schedule adherence, airspace hazard avoidance, flight efficiency, and passenger comfort. The strategic operational mode was found to be effective in reducing unnecessary maneuvering in conflict situations where the intruder's intended maneuvers would resolve the conflict. Conditions of high operational complexity and vertical maneuvering resulted in increased proliferation of conflicts, but both operational modes exhibited characteristics of stability based on observed conflict proliferation rates of less than 30 percent. Scenario case studies illustrated the need for maneuver flight restrictions to prevent the creation of new conflicts through maneuvering and the need for an improved user interface design that appropriately focuses the pilot's attention on conflict prevention information. Pilot real-time assessment of maximum workload indicated minimal sensitivity to operational complexity, providing further evidence that pilot workload is not the limiting factor for feasibility of an en-route distributed traffic management system, even under highly constrained conditions.

Wing, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Transitioning Resolution Responsibility between the Controller and Automation Team in Simulated NextGen Separation Assurance

As part of an ongoing research effort on separation assurance and functional allocation in NextGen, a controller- in-the-loop study with ground-based automation was conducted at NASA Ames' Airspace Operations Laboratory in August 2012 to investigate the potential impact of introducing self-separating aircraft in progressively advanced NextGen timeframes. From this larger study, the current exploratory analysis of controller-automation interaction styles focuses on the last and most far-term time frame. Measurements were recorded that firstly verified the continued operational validity of this iteration of the ground-based functional allocation automation concept in forecast traffic densities up to 2x that of current day high altitude en-route sectors. Additionally, with greater levels of fully automated conflict detection and resolution as well as the introduction of intervention functionality, objective and subjective analyses showed a range of passive to active controller- automation interaction styles between the participants. Not only did the controllers work with the automation to meet their safety and capacity goals in the simulated future NextGen timeframe, they did so in different ways and with different attitudes of trust/use of the automation. Taken as a whole, the results showed that the prototyped controller-automation functional allocation framework was very flexible and successful overall.

NextGen↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Ground-Based and Airborne Function Allocation Concepts for NextGen Using Human-In-The-Loop Simulations

Investigation of function allocation for the Next Generation Air Transportation System is being conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). To provide insight on comparability of different function allocations for separation assurance, two human-in-the-loop simulation experiments were conducted on homogeneous airborne and ground-based approaches to four-dimensional trajectory-based operations, one referred to as ground-based automated separation assurance (groundbased) and the other as airborne trajectory management with self-separation (airborne). In the coordinated simulations at NASA s Ames and Langley Research Centers, controllers for the ground-based concept at Ames and pilots for the airborne concept at Langley managed the same traffic scenarios using the two different concepts. The common scenarios represented a significant increase in airspace demand over current operations. Using common independent variables, the simulations varied traffic density, scheduling constraints, and the timing of trajectory change events. Common metrics were collected to enable a comparison of relevant results. Where comparisons were possible, no substantial differences in performance or operator acceptability were observed. Mean schedule conformance and flight path deviation were considered adequate for both approaches. Conflict detection warning times and resolution times were mostly adequate, but certain conflict situations were detected too late to be resolved in a timely manner. This led to some situations in which safety was compromised and/or workload was rated as being unacceptable in both experiments. Operators acknowledged these issues in their responses and ratings but gave generally positive assessments of the respective concept and operations they experienced. Future studies will evaluate technical improvements and procedural enhancements to achieve the required level of safety and acceptability and will investigate the integration of airborne and ground-based capabilities within the same airspace to leverage the benefits of each concept.

Wing, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aircraft Conflict Analysis and Real-Time Conflict Probing Using Probabilistic Trajectory Modeling

Methods for maintaining separation between aircraft in the current airspace system have been built from a foundation of structured routes and evolved procedures. However, as the airspace becomes more congested and the chance of failures or operational error become more problematic, automated conflict alerting systems have been proposed to help provide decision support and to serve as traffic monitoring aids. The problem of conflict detection and resolution has been tackled from a number of different ways, but in this thesis, it is recast as a problem of prediction in the presence of uncertainties. Much of the focus is concentrated on the errors and uncertainties from the working trajectory model used to estimate future aircraft positions. The more accurate the prediction, the more likely an ideal (no false alarms, no missed detections) alerting system can be designed. Additional insights into the problem were brought forth by a review of current operational and developmental approaches found in the literature. An iterative, trial and error approach to threshold design was identified. When examined from a probabilistic perspective, the threshold parameters were found to be a surrogate to probabilistic performance measures. To overcome the limitations in the current iterative design method, a new direct approach is presented where the performance measures are directly computed and used to perform the alerting decisions. The methodology is shown to handle complex encounter situations (3-D, multi-aircraft, multi-intent, with uncertainties) with relative ease. Utilizing a Monte Carlo approach, a method was devised to perform the probabilistic computations in near realtime. Not only does this greatly increase the method's potential as an analytical tool, but it also opens up the possibility for use as a real-time conflict alerting probe. A prototype alerting logic was developed and has been utilized in several NASA Ames Research Center experimental studies.

Yang, Lee C.↗